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Latest general election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    Sterling slipping hard this morning as well
    Remember insider trading on currencies is not a legal offence.

    Does the MPC have rules around leaking their views before it's announced though ? I mean I assume they decide beforehand and "publish" the result at noon.
    Their meeting concludes this morning, usually with a final vote just before the decision is announced. Presumably they are in a closed room with no phones, and a secretary who types the release to the markets.

    Don’t ever recall it actually leaking, which suggests a lack of outsider knowledge prior to publication.
    No the meeting was yesterday with the minutes written up overnight.
    Oh, so that explains some of the confusion.

    They really should have released it at 8am, if they met yesterday.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    edited November 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    Sterling slipping hard this morning as well
    Remember insider trading on currencies is not a legal offence.

    Does the MPC have rules around leaking their views before it's announced though ? I mean I assume they decide beforehand and "publish" the result at noon.
    Their meeting concludes this morning, usually with a final vote just before the decision is announced. Presumably they are in a closed room with no phones, and a secretary who types the release to the markets.

    Don’t ever recall it actually leaking, which suggests a lack of outsider knowledge prior to publication.
    No the meeting was yesterday with the minutes written up overnight.
    So the pound tanking because they hear the rise is not enough, below the trailed quarter?

    Liz Truss was right, strip them of their powers, then flog em mercilessly for their crimes against the British people.

    Alternatively to spare the rod spoil the banker, OLB has posted “Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Good grief, every time I think the Tories aren't serious and maybe the Lib Dems should get my vote instead, they come out with some real whoppers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-63431894 @ 9:39am
    Calls for chancellor to address homeowners
    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is facing calls to go to the House of Commons and address mortgage-holders on how he plans to help them, if the Bank of England increases interest rates as expected later on today.

    Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said: "The chancellor must address the country immediately after the rate rise decision to spell out a plan to save homeowners on the brink.

    "He should either come to Parliament or hold a press conference to announce support for families facing mortgage bill rises worth hundreds of pounds a month.

    "People are desperately worried about how they are going to pay these frightening mortgage payments after tomorrow," she said.


    Everyone holding a mortgage should know that rates can go up as well as down, and prices can go down as well as up. Its not up to the Chancellor (read: taxpayer) to pay people's mortgages when rates change.

    People have got far too addicted to the idea that taxpayers should pay for every problem, for every issue, that might ever strike anyone.

    This was the moral hazard with the furlough scheme. Suddenly the taxpayer should step in everywhere "ordinary people" feel some kind of monetary pain.

    The safety net has just become an all consuming, economy suffocating strangulation device. Whoever can figure out how to get the British public less addicted to welfare and entitlements will get my vote.
    And @contrarian called it all.
    Indeed - he said that if the government borrowed lots of money to support people and businesses through the pandemic it would really stress the public finances.

    I remember reading that and going, "fuck he's right!"
    I don't think anyone is really denying it. The alternative however was worse.
    Yes. Crisis, cost, bill, pay. We're into the last 2 now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    Sterling slipping hard this morning as well
    Remember insider trading on currencies is not a legal offence.

    Does the MPC have rules around leaking their views before it's announced though ? I mean I assume they decide beforehand and "publish" the result at noon.
    Their meeting concludes this morning, usually with a final vote just before the decision is announced. Presumably they are in a closed room with no phones, and a secretary who types the release to the markets.

    Don’t ever recall it actually leaking, which suggests a lack of outsider knowledge prior to publication.
    No the meeting was yesterday with the minutes written up overnight.
    So the pound tanking because they hear the rise is not enough, below the trailed quarter?

    Liz Truss was right, strip them of their powers, then flog em mercilessly for their crimes against the British people.
    I don't really understand why we're reactive. Lets get ahead of the Fed maybe, push it up, get the exchange rate healthy etc etc. Painful too of course.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    Sterling slipping hard this morning as well
    Remember insider trading on currencies is not a legal offence.

    Does the MPC have rules around leaking their views before it's announced though ? I mean I assume they decide beforehand and "publish" the result at noon.
    Their meeting concludes this morning, usually with a final vote just before the decision is announced. Presumably they are in a closed room with no phones, and a secretary who types the release to the markets.

    Don’t ever recall it actually leaking, which suggests a lack of outsider knowledge prior to publication.
    No the meeting was yesterday with the minutes written up overnight.
    So the pound tanking because they hear the rise is not enough, below the trailed quarter?

    Liz Truss was right, strip them of their powers, then flog em mercilessly for their crimes against the British people.
    I don't really understand why we're reactive. Lets get ahead of the Fed maybe, push it up, get the exchange rate healthy etc etc. Painful too of course.
    It was the approach Hunt took fiscally after the Kwasaster and worked well. Medicine first, think about the sweets later.
    I think it would be a good idea for the MPC.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The job of the Fed is to look after the economy of the US, not the rest of the world. If you want to complain, then complain about our own BoE being so useless rather than about other people's central banks doing the job they are supposed to do.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
    Its job being to swerve aggressively into a global downturn, having kept interest rates artifically low for years? New one on me.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    EXCLUSIVE

    "The very idea of exporting migrants is offensive to us."

    Belize's foreign minister @EcourtbzeEamon tells me reports that the UK could send its unwanted migrants to his country will never happen.

    https://latika.me/BelizesaysNoWay | @smh & @theage
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    If you think that politicians are *more* likely to do politically unpopular things for the long term good of the economy then sure.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm back from visiting the folks anyway. My dad is amazing for 89, he really is. Still holds forth in a booming voice on every subject under the sun. Still able to articulate opinion after opinion, every one a strong one and by no means always anchored to logic or evidence. Phew. Bit of a relief to leave and get back on here.

    I can see it must feel homelike for you :smile:
    Indeed!

    I'm sorry to report that he had a view on matters pertaining to changing one's gender.
    Well you have a view on that too. You mean he has a view that you don't like?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    edited November 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    Sterling slipping hard this morning as well
    Remember insider trading on currencies is not a legal offence.

    Does the MPC have rules around leaking their views before it's announced though ? I mean I assume they decide beforehand and "publish" the result at noon.
    Their meeting concludes this morning, usually with a final vote just before the decision is announced. Presumably they are in a closed room with no phones, and a secretary who types the release to the markets.

    Don’t ever recall it actually leaking, which suggests a lack of outsider knowledge prior to publication.
    No the meeting was yesterday with the minutes written up overnight.
    So the pound tanking because they hear the rise is not enough, below the trailed quarter?

    Liz Truss was right, strip them of their powers, then flog em mercilessly for their crimes against the British people.
    I don't really understand why we're reactive. Lets get ahead of the Fed maybe, push it up, get the exchange rate healthy etc etc. Painful too of course.
    Pain. But then you take the bigger picture, higher and lingering inflation, and the pain there with good money thrown reactively to mitigate high inflation pain, and in the bigger picture which option is strongest?

    If government and independent bank disagree how fast rates should rise and what level they should be, it should be the government which has the final say, was the gist of Trussnomics. And she was right, wasn’t she?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The job of the Fed is to look after the economy of the US, not the rest of the world. If you want to complain, then complain about our own BoE being so useless rather than about other people's central banks doing the job they are supposed to do.
    I complain a lot about the BOE.

    And actually, when Britain lead the world economy, we did realise that fact and take responsibility for global stability.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
    Its job being to swerve aggressively into a global downturn, having kept interest rates artifically low for years? New one on me.
    What global downturn?

    The US economy has been overheating and was even before your mate Vlad invaded Ukraine. Rates should have been lifted sooner.

    The UK economy has been overheating too. For all the talk of doom and gloom, we're still running at high inflation and full employment.

    Personally I think the Fed are going too far, but they're doing their job and people are entitled to disagree in economics. I don't think the BoE have gone far enough.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,606
    edited November 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE

    "The very idea of exporting migrants is offensive to us."

    Belize's foreign minister @EcourtbzeEamon tells me reports that the UK could send its unwanted migrants to his country will never happen.

    https://latika.me/BelizesaysNoWay | @smh & @theage

    This is what Rwanda used to say, right up until they signed the agreement.

    Of course, they may be right about the "never" part, just not in the way they think.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,561
    Ishmael_Z said:

    algarkirk said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have we really had a whole night arguing about whether or not London is in the South East?

    What's there to argue about? London is in the south-east but not in the South East.
    If London is in the south-east then explain North London to me.
    North London does not admit of any explanation.
    North London is a homeless orphan since the abolition of Middlesex, a shameless act of gratuitous destruction.

    "Gaily into Ruislip Gardens
    Runs the red electric train,
    With a thousand Ta's and Pardon's
    Daintily alights Elaine;
    Hurries down the concrete station
    With a frown of concentration,
    Out into the outskirt's edges
    Where a few surviving hedges
    Keep alive our lost Elysium - rural Middlesex again."


    Betjeman up there with Waugh in making an art form of snobbery.
    Not quite, IMHO. Yes, you are right about Waugh; Betjeman is much more complex in his emotional response to change, loss and class. Consider the spirituality of trolley buses in 'Aberdeen Park'.

  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The job of the Fed is to look after the economy of the US, not the rest of the world. If you want to complain, then complain about our own BoE being so useless rather than about other people's central banks doing the job they are supposed to do.
    I complain a lot about the BOE.

    And actually, when Britain lead the world economy, we did realise that fact and take responsibility for global stability.
    Haha yeah sure.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    If you think that politicians are *more* likely to do politically unpopular things for the long term good of the economy then sure.
    That’s the gist of the argument. If government and independent bank disagree how fast rates should rise and what level they should be, it should be the government which has the final say, because…

    They take and respond to a broader picture.

    They can be unelected if they get decisions wrong, so democracy like why we done Brexit.

    Government are more accountable because they have parliamentary scrutiny and to win parliament votes on their policy. Leading to…

    What would be worst of all, a sham independence, by passing all that democracy and accountability but still controlling decisions from a back room. If we didn’t know the bank has had this independence for more than 50 years we would presume it was a typical back room control freak policy of Gordon Brown.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
    Its job being to swerve aggressively into a global downturn, having kept interest rates artifically low for years? New one on me.
    What global downturn?

    The US economy has been overheating and was even before your mate Vlad invaded Ukraine. Rates should have been lifted sooner.

    The UK economy has been overheating too. For all the talk of doom and gloom, we're still running at high inflation and full employment.

    Personally I think the Fed are going too far, but they're doing their job and people are entitled to disagree in economics. I don't think the BoE have gone far enough.
    Everyone kept rates on the floor for far too long, several years too long, and now the unwinding needs to happen. All Western governments have spent a decade and a half printing money and putting it on the never-never, but those bills now need to be paid. The next few years are not going to be good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm back from visiting the folks anyway. My dad is amazing for 89, he really is. Still holds forth in a booming voice on every subject under the sun. Still able to articulate opinion after opinion, every one a strong one and by no means always anchored to logic or evidence. Phew. Bit of a relief to leave and get back on here.

    I can see it must feel homelike for you :smile:
    Indeed!

    I'm sorry to report that he had a view on matters pertaining to changing one's gender.
    Well you have a view on that too. You mean he has a view that you don't like?
    Just kidding. He's still extremely engaged with the world. It's a good thing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE

    "The very idea of exporting migrants is offensive to us."

    Belize's foreign minister @EcourtbzeEamon tells me reports that the UK could send its unwanted migrants to his country will never happen.

    https://latika.me/BelizesaysNoWay | @smh & @theage

    This is what Rwanda used to say, right up until they signed the agreement.

    Of course, they may be right about the "never" part, just not in the way they think.
    Money Talks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Why don't we use Montagu ?
    Noone lives there & it's ours
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.


    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher
    beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The job of the Fed is to look after the economy of the US, not the rest of the world. If you want to complain, then complain about our own BoE being so useless rather than about other
    people's central banks doing the job
    they are supposed to do.
    There is a crucial factor in why the BoE is going to be naturally more cautious than the Fed and that relates to the structure of the mortgage market. 30 year fixed rate mortgages are common in the US - hence the pain from higher interest rates is relatively spread out over the population. Here, we have a preponderance of 2.3 and maybe 5 year deals plus variable rates. So that massive hike in your mortgage bill is coming up very quickly for a good chunk of the mortgage market.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,606
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
    Its job being to swerve aggressively into a global downturn, having kept interest rates artifically low for years? New one on me.
    What global downturn?

    The US economy has been overheating and was even before your mate Vlad invaded Ukraine. Rates should have been lifted sooner.

    The UK economy has been overheating too. For all the talk of doom and gloom, we're still running at high inflation and full employment.

    Personally I think the Fed are going too far, but they're doing their job and people are entitled to disagree in economics. I don't think the BoE have gone far enough.
    Everyone kept rates on the floor for far too long, several years too long, and now the unwinding needs to happen. All Western governments have spent a decade and a half printing money and putting it on the never-never, but those bills now need to be paid. The next few years are not going to be good.
    If the Bank of England had raised rates by 0.25% once a year since 2009, rates would be roughly where they are now. I wonder what effects such a policy would have had...
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The Federal Reserve is doing its job, not their fault if the BoE aren't doing theirs.
    Its job being to swerve aggressively into a global downturn, having kept interest rates artifically low for years? New one on me.
    What global downturn?

    The US economy has been overheating and was even before your mate Vlad invaded Ukraine. Rates should have been lifted sooner.

    The UK economy has been overheating too. For all the talk of doom and gloom, we're still running at high inflation and full employment.

    Personally I think the Fed are going too far, but they're doing their job and people are entitled to disagree in economics. I don't think the BoE have gone far enough.
    Everyone kept rates on the floor for far too long, several years too long, and now the unwinding needs to happen. All Western governments have spent a decade and a half printing money and putting it on the never-never, but those bills now need to be paid. The next few years are not going to be good.
    Indeed, but the chicken has already come home to roost.

    In America in particular the money printing and giveaways during Covid was even worse than in the UK and it led to major overheating in the economy that the Fed now has to deal with.

    Since we can't rollback the clock, cancel lockdown, and cancel the money printing and giveaways, there is no alternative but to facing the consequences of that horrendous choice now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm back from visiting the folks anyway. My dad is amazing for 89, he really is. Still holds forth in a booming voice on every subject under the sun. Still able to articulate opinion after opinion, every one a strong one and by no means always anchored to logic or evidence. Phew. Bit of a relief to leave and get back on here.

    I can see it must feel homelike for you :smile:
    Indeed!

    I'm sorry to report that he had a view on matters pertaining to changing one's gender.
    Bet it was the realistic one and not the fantasy crap we hear all the time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Pulpstar said:

    Why don't we use Montagu ?
    Noone lives there & it's ours

    What’s wrong with Ascension Island?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    Scott_xP said:

    25 per cent of the hotels now booked by the Home Office are 4* or 5*… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20305829/migrants-five-star-hotels-housing/

    Is there a Yes Minister script which opens with the Hotel industry facing collapse due to staff shortages (everyone earns more in Lidl) and credit crisis? Humphrey says, he’s never stayed in any of them, but it’s nice to know they are there.

    then Jim is hit with a headache where to house an influx of refugees, and suddenly has a lightbulb moment.

    What an excellent idea, Primeminister.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    If you think that politicians are *more* likely to do politically unpopular things for the long term good of the economy then sure.
    That’s the gist of the argument. If government and independent bank disagree how fast rates should rise and what level they should be, it should be the government which has the final say, because…

    They take and respond to a broader picture.

    They can be unelected if they get decisions wrong, so democracy like why we done Brexit.

    Government are more accountable because they have parliamentary scrutiny and to win parliament votes on their policy. Leading to…

    What would be worst of all, a sham independence, by passing all that democracy and accountability but still controlling decisions from a back room. If we didn’t know the bank has had this independence for more than 50 years we would presume it was a typical back room control freak policy of Gordon Brown.
    It hasn't had this independence for 50 years, only since 1997 when it was granted by notorious control freak Gordon Brown.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    BoE rate announcement at midday? There seems to be some confusion, as it was going to be after the Chancellor’s now-postponed autumn statement.

    Yes. Time, tide and the MPC wait for no man.
    Thanks.

    I reckon they chicken out and go for 50bps again.
    That's certainly the risk. I expect a 6-3 vote for 75, but I thought they'd do 75 last time and got that wrong.
    “chicken out That's certainly the risk.“

    So are they doing the right thing each time - or should they have this taken away from them and given to government to get the right thing done as Trussnomics wanted? The main mistake you can make with inflation is too slow too limp a response?

    Why be wedded to “independence” if it keeps producing the wrong thing, too slow too timid response to inflation?
    The biggest danger is the continual falling behind the Fed, especially when the inflationary pressures are coming mostly from imported and dollar-denominated commodities.

    Under-raising UK rates, makes everything priced in US$ more expensive, thanks to currency movements.
    Most of the move down in GBP relates to yesterday's hawkish Fed messaging. The EUR is selling off too, albeit not as much. GBP sells off more in risk off scenarios like this one (ie it's higher beta) because it trades more like an EM currency.
    The Federal Reserve once again fucking up everyone elses' economy, once again as immune from criticism or opposition as the tides or the sun.
    The job of the Fed is to look after the economy of the US, not the rest of the world. If you want to complain, then complain about our own BoE being so useless rather than about other people's central banks doing the job they are supposed to do.
    I complain a lot about the BOE.

    And actually, when Britain lead the world economy, we did realise that fact and take responsibility for global stability.
    No we really didn't. We were happy for countries to be on the Gold Standard because that helped our global trade - at least in the short term - but we took no decisions that were not in our direct interest and if decisions we made harmed other countries we had no issue with that at all. Indeed, we went to war with countries to force them to do stuff economically that helped us and harmed them.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,606
    75bp.

    Peak interest rate likely to be lower than implied by markets: BOE

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,145

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph reports that the Home Office is attempting to block book the entire 4 star Novotel in Ipswich for dinghy people. For months, is the implication

    The optics of this for HMG are implausibly bad. I imagine a large chunk of financially hard pressed Brits would love to spend the winter in a 4 star Novotel. With everything provided - from food to heating

    Yet Albanians come first? AND YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR THEM

    This story is a political Chernobyl

    If you have a solution please share it.
    Put them on planes, fly them back. Don't even bother with a process, Albania is a safe country.
    I agree, but if you don't bother with a process then hordes of left-wing lawyers will appeal it to death.

    Law needs to be changed first.
    It’s not “left-wing lawyers” who are slowing the process down. It’s the inability of the Home Office to process claims or to deport people whose claims have failed. You don’t need new laws. You need competent management in the Home Office.

  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph reports that the Home Office is attempting to block book the entire 4 star Novotel in Ipswich for dinghy people. For months, is the implication

    The optics of this for HMG are implausibly bad. I imagine a large chunk of financially hard pressed Brits would love to spend the winter in a 4 star Novotel. With everything provided - from food to heating

    Yet Albanians come first? AND YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR THEM

    This story is a political Chernobyl

    If you have a solution please share it.
    Put them on planes, fly them back. Don't even bother with a process, Albania is a safe country.
    I agree, but if you don't bother with a process then hordes of left-wing lawyers will appeal it to death.

    Law needs to be changed first.
    It’s not “left-wing lawyers” who are slowing the process down. It’s the inability of the Home Office to process claims or to deport people whose claims have failed. You don’t need new laws. You need competent management in the Home Office.

    Even if you do need laws the Tories have been in power for 12 years and we have had authoritarian Home Secretaries moaning for at least double that. These are the people who write the laws and decide which treaties we belong to. They are solely responsible, not the courts or lefty lawyers.
  • kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm back from visiting the folks anyway. My dad is amazing for 89, he really is. Still holds forth in a booming voice on every subject under the sun. Still able to articulate opinion after opinion, every one a strong one and by no means always anchored to logic or evidence. Phew. Bit of a relief to leave and get back on here.

    I can see it must feel homelike for you :smile:
    Indeed!

    I'm sorry to report that he had a view on matters pertaining to changing one's gender.
    Of the no nonsense stands to reason variety?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm back from visiting the folks anyway. My dad is amazing for 89, he really is. Still holds forth in a booming voice on every subject under the sun. Still able to articulate opinion after opinion, every one a strong one and by no means always anchored to logic or evidence. Phew. Bit of a relief to leave and get back on here.

    I can see it must feel homelike for you :smile:
    Indeed!

    I'm sorry to report that he had a view on matters pertaining to changing one's gender.
    Of the no nonsense stands to reason variety?
    No, he's signed up lock stock & barrel to the whole gender identity thing.

    Joking! :smile:
  • Scott_xP said:

    25 per cent of the hotels now booked by the Home Office are 4* or 5*… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20305829/migrants-five-star-hotels-housing/

    "No expense spared!"
  • Scott_xP said:

    25 per cent of the hotels now booked by the Home Office are 4* or 5*… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20305829/migrants-five-star-hotels-housing/

    "No expense spared!"
    Back in the mid-90s I stayed in the Ipswich Novotel several nights a week while on a project with Willis Corroon across the road. It really wasn't anything special. There's a lot of over estimation of what 4 and 5 * means.
This discussion has been closed.