The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
It’s quickly spread to this thread too 😯
Can I say, HY does have a good point - if London is a ”region” and South East is a region, how can two regions be in same place same time?
For example, can you tell me which region Oxford is in?
Oxford is also South East not London
Arguably, Oxford is the southern end of the Midlands. Banbury up the road isn't the SE for sure.
No, Banbury is also South East.
West Midlands is Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire and West Midlands metropolitan county (including Birmingham and Coventry and Wolverhampton) only
They shouldn't have changed the old South East and East Anglia regions in 1999. Before then East Anglia simply consisted of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire, and the South East still included Hertfordshire, Essex and Bedfordshire.
North Essex though is much closer to
Cambridgeshire and Suffolk than it is to the rest of the South East
Indeed North Essex is absolutely lovely. As is Epping Forest!
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
@HYUFD I know you like linking to the internet for your facts so try looking up London in Wikapedia. It says: 'It stands on the River Thames in south-east England'
Now I don't believe everything I read on the internet, but you do so what do you say to that?
See you haven't either conceded IHT wasn't at the bottom of that table (last thread) as you said, but over half way up, although we can all see it.
You do look silly by not bailing.
The River Thames also goes through Oxfordshire and Berkshire in South East England yes, London doesn't.
It also says 'London, also known as Greater London, is one of nine regions of England and the top subdivision covering most of the city's metropolis.' London is 1 of those 9 regions, South East another
The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
It’s quickly spread to this thread too 😯
Can I say, HY does have a good point - if London is a ”region” and South East is a region, how can two regions be in same place same time?
For example, can you tell me which region Oxford is in?
Oxford is also South East not London
Arguably, Oxford is the southern end of the Midlands. Banbury up the road isn't the SE for sure.
Oxford is definitely in the Midlands, it just won't admit it because of snobbery.
You would give Christ Church high table heart attacks if you told them they were eating in the Midlands!
But they are happy to be eating in the South East?
Yes, as it is the poshest region outside London
Posh! Have you ever been to Blackbird Leys?
SouthEast region. The average Christ Church Don goes to Blackbird Leys even less often than the Midlands
Ideal opportunity to note that when I was there (admittedly many moons ago) several of the dons were part of the Blackbird Leys education scheme which involved members trekking out to the various poorer areas and giving 1-2-1 tuition to secondary school kids there.
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
If the UK were supplying Ukraine drones and ballistic missiles with 1000km+ range, for use on Russian population centres, you might have half a point.
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
Not under the terms of the Iran nuclear deal it doesn’t, though admittedly that’s been in partial abeyance since Trump pulled the US out.
The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
It’s quickly spread to this thread too 😯
Can I say, HY does have a good point - if London is a ”region” and South East is a region, how can two regions be in same place same time?
For example, can you tell me which region Oxford is in?
Oxford is also South East not London
Arguably, Oxford is the southern end of the Midlands. Banbury up the road isn't the SE for sure.
Oxford is definitely in the Midlands, it just won't admit it because of snobbery.
You would give Christ Church high table heart attacks if you told them they were eating in the Midlands!
But they are happy to be eating in the South East?
Yes, as it is the poshest region outside London
Posh! Have you ever been to Blackbird Leys?
SouthEast region. The average Christ Church Don goes to Blackbird Leys even less often than the Midlands
Ideal opportunity to note that when I was there (admittedly many moons ago) several of the dons were part of the Blackbird Leys education scheme which involved members trekking out to the various poorer areas and giving 1-2-1 tuition to secondary school kids there.
Fair enough, a few might have, overall however Christ Church still take in 50% of their students from private schools, the joint second highest private school total intake at an Oxford college after Trinity
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
"58% of the country think “The British government has lost control of the country’s borders”, according to new and exclusive polling by People Polling for GB News. This jumps to an even higher 75% among Conservative and 76% among Leavers. Only 14% of the country disagree the country has lost control of its borders."
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
Not under the terms of the Iran nuclear deal it doesn’t, though admittedly that’s been in partial abeyance since Trump pulled the US out.
There’s also the interesting question about whether or not the current regime is about to get overthrown by a popular uprising. That seems slightly improbable, but not impossible.
The Barty/ HYUFD/numerous others of differing opinions is symptomatic of why the Tories are doomed as a government. Absolutely no scintilla of an agreement on even the very basics of how the country ought to be run.
@HYUFD is part of the ERG far right group much like the Corbynites in labour, and it is upto Rishi to take the party towards the centre and he will either win or lose 24 depending on just how successful he is over the next 2 years
It is a very big mountain to climb
HYUFD is not far right. That’s completely ridiculous
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
I think there's a moral difference between supporting a country that has been invaded rather than one that has attacked a neighbour.
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
Not under the terms of the Iran nuclear deal it doesn’t, though admittedly that’s been in partial abeyance since Trump pulled the US out.
There’s also the interesting question about whether or not the current regime is about to get overthrown by a popular uprising. That seems slightly improbable, but not impossible.
It have been done by now if the protests had enough momentum. Its going to take something else.
As expected, Suella’s raging about migration has simply escalated the issue to the top of the headlines and reminded voters that a) it is broken, and b) the Tories have made it worse.
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
If the UK were supplying Ukraine drones and ballistic missiles with 1000km+ range, for use on Russian population centres, you might have half a point.
That's automatic contrarianism for you, it falls apart at the slightest push. Gives a nice warm feeling if you pretend no one else at all has ever expressed a nuanced or realistic view of things though.
@HYUFD I know you like linking to the internet for your facts so try looking up London in Wikapedia. It says: 'It stands on the River Thames in south-east England'
Now I don't believe everything I read on the internet, but you do so what do you say to that?
See you haven't either conceded IHT wasn't at the bottom of that table (last thread) as you said, but over half way up, although we can all see it.
You do look silly by not bailing.
The River Thames also goes through Oxfordshire and Berkshire in South East England yes, London doesn't.
It also says 'London, also known as Greater London, is one of nine regions of England and the top subdivision covering most of the city's metropolis.' London is 1 of those 9 regions, South East another
What threats or warnings has Iran been given over its involvement in the war in Ukraine? There seems to have been a shrug of the shoulders.
What do you want to happen? A fresh war in the Middle East because the last two or three went so terrifically well?
There are plenty of options available without a full blown war. Time and again all you do is oppose the use of western military force in response to the aggressions of others. I'm sure you regard it as 'realism.' I'm inclined to wonder which side you support.
So what do you want? I'm hearing really good things about sanctions lately.
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
Not under the terms of the Iran nuclear deal it doesn’t, though admittedly that’s been in partial abeyance since Trump pulled the US out.
There’s also the interesting question about whether or not the current regime is about to get overthrown by a popular uprising. That seems slightly improbable, but not impossible.
It have been done by now if the protests had enough momentum. Its going to take something else.
Meanwhile Leaky Sue extends the Rwanda plan to include Belize, Paraguay, and Peru.
Who said this period was going to be boring?
It’s like a twist on one of those existential jokes.
“Cabinet Secretary, how many people have we successfully deported to Rwanda?”
“None, Home Secretary.”
“Excellent. Then I think it’s time to extend the policy to Belize, Paraguay and Peru - so we can deport none there too.”
It’s currently cost £130M and counting. Bringing in another three partners dramatically raises the stakes in that financial regard, as well as expectations on actually delivering results.
@HYUFD I know you like linking to the internet for your facts so try looking up London in Wikapedia. It says: 'It stands on the River Thames in south-east England'
Now I don't believe everything I read on the internet, but you do so what do you say to that?
See you haven't either conceded IHT wasn't at the bottom of that table (last thread) as you said, but over half way up, although we can all see it.
You do look silly by not bailing.
The River Thames also goes through Oxfordshire and Berkshire in South East England yes, London doesn't.
It also says 'London, also known as Greater London, is one of nine regions of England and the top subdivision covering most of the city's metropolis.' London is 1 of those 9 regions, South East another
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
My judgment on this matter is final.
The strangest one IMO is that Banbury is in the south-east but Watford isn't.
I'm out of Twitter jail! Just going to have a cup of tea then get to work on dicktard culture warrior Mark Jenkinson MP.
How does Twitter jail work? Do you get banned for a specific period of time?
Yeah, usually 24 hours. You can get a whole life tariff (like DJT) but apparently you have to do more than abuse tory MPs with violent sexual imagery or express a desire for the Duke of Edinburgh to be dead (he was alive at the time).
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
My judgment on this matter is final.
The strangest one IMO is that Banbury is in the south-east but Watford isn't.
That’s because the statistical regions are makey-uppy. No-one with their head screwed on think Herts is “Eastern”.
And that’s just Energy firms, how much they also creaming off the banks?
And some PBers said these amounts were impossible 😤
Those numbers don't add up.
He is claiming it will raise £40 billion in 5 years. But the 25% supplemental windfall tax that had already been proposed by the Government was already going to raise around $10 billion a year for 5 years - which would have been £50 billion so they are claiming this proposal will raise less than their original plans.
@HYUFD I know you like linking to the internet for your facts so try looking up London in Wikapedia. It says: 'It stands on the River Thames in south-east England'
Now I don't believe everything I read on the internet, but you do so what do you say to that?
See you haven't either conceded IHT wasn't at the bottom of that table (last thread) as you said, but over half way up, although we can all see it.
You do look silly by not bailing.
The River Thames also goes through Oxfordshire and Berkshire in South East England yes, London doesn't.
It also says 'London, also known as Greater London, is one of nine regions of England and the top subdivision covering most of the city's metropolis.' London is 1 of those 9 regions, South East another
It’s not forgotten by me, Starmer’s first PMQs question to Liz was simply “you’ve been telling hustings your not going to do Windfall Tax, are you serious?” She replied “yes I am serious, we are not doing a Windfall Tax.” And her premiership never really recovered from that moment.
There is also a lot of PBers in the archives explaining not just how Labours idea for a Windfall tax is such a bad idea, but being quite specific how it’s impossible to raise the sort of £40bn Hunt is creaming.
And the budget will be creaming bank profits too - how much will that be?
And that’s just Energy firms, how much they also creaming off the banks?
And some PBers said these amounts were impossible 😤
Those numbers don't add up.
He is claiming it will raise £40 billion in 5 years. But the 25% supplemental windfall tax that had already been proposed by the Government was already going to raise around $10 billion a year for 5 years - which would have been £50 billion so they are claiming this proposal will raise less than their original plans.
So the British people end up owing the Energy Companies about £10bn?
Meanwhile Leaky Sue extends the Rwanda plan to include Belize, Paraguay, and Peru.
Who said this period was going to be boring?
Paddington's gonna be exiled to Peru? Noooo!
That’s an interesting point, why the government has been taking them out the processing plant and coaching the asylum seekers to London and dumping them at random train stations all week. Was there a top level crisis meeting, and all they could come up with was “well, it worked for Paddington?”
They have certainly solved the over crowding crisis with these coach trips and random dumping, so Gale and Cooper just have to pipe down about it’s too full now.
So Russia had a short tantrum over grain shipments. On Monday I posted that Russia couldnt directly take on a fuck off & carry on response and that someone should look closely at much tonnage the Turkish navy had in the area.
And so it was. Erdogan just told Russia dare and try to stop the ships sailing. Russia backs down. Thats how it works with Putin, he can sneak about and make things difficult but he depends on those who have the ability to outmuscle him not using their strength.
The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
One loses the will to live. Being expelled from an airlock to certain death in deep space would be sweet relief after witnessing what passes for “thinking” in Mini Franco’s “mind”.
The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
One loses the will to live. Being expelled from an airlock to certain death in deep space would be sweet relief after witnessing what passes for “thinking” in Mini Franco’s “mind”.
He is improbably thick, on a galactic scale.
Rather than everyone losing the will to live, why didn't everyone accept HYUFD's point that for the purposes of whatever discussion was being had, London should be treated separately from the rest of the South East? Would save a lot of time.
To re-state a question I asked earlier why have UK gas prices spiked again?
Probably because there's very little storage, and an LNG cargo has been diverted to Rotterdam.
Really? Something like that and they spike? No sort of clever market people with 9 screens and coffee addiction peering into the future and getting a sense of something they don’t like? Just one walky-talks conversation “Sorry Biffur, all full, try Rotterdam.”
Would it be unduly expensive to use tankers as storage and pay to keep a few moored in Milford Haven through the winter?
It’s a good question. The answer as you sugggest, with these tankers worth their weight in gold right now, it could be too expensive to moor one down like that.
To re-state a question I asked earlier why have UK gas prices spiked again?
Probably because there's very little storage, and an LNG cargo has been diverted to Rotterdam.
Really? Something like that and they spike? No sort of clever market people with 9 screens and coffee addiction peering into the future and getting a sense of something they don’t like? Just one walky-talks conversation “Sorry Biffur, all full, try Rotterdam.”
Would it be unduly expensive to use tankers as storage and pay to keep a few moored in Milford Haven through the winter?
It’s a good question. The answer as you sugggest, with these tankers worth their weight in gold right now, it could be too expensive to moor one down like that.
I think the issue is that if they are moored then they are not off getting your next load so you are just creating a bigger problem down the line
Basically - once again - the government (along with most other people) forgot that one of their primary roles is structural resilience
LNG vessels are not great looking term stores of natural gas, because - while they are well insulated - they have no way to actually cool the gas. An LNG vessel will therefore see its gas warming and expanding and ultimately returning to a gaseous state.
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
An example of why US tech sanctions on China are very effective. The really big chip manufacturers Korea and Taiwan simply can’t operate without the US (though much the same applies in the opposite direction as far as chip manufacturing is concerned).
Korea highly dependent on foreign chip equipment: KITA https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/11/129_339135.html Korea's dependence on semiconductor equipment from the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands has reached 77.5 percent, sparking worries that the high level of dependence could be geopolitically and diplomatically risky in the future. Some experts are advising Korea to join the Chip 4 Alliance to ensure a stable supply of semiconductor equipment, according to a Korea International Trade Association (KITA) report, Thursday.
The KITA released a report titled, "Recent Semiconductor Equipment Trade Trends and Implications," and it states that global semiconductor equipment trade increased 2.4 percent year-on-year in 2018 due to a surge in global semiconductor equipment investment, recording a record high of $101.2 billion. The top three export countries for semiconductor equipment were Japan ($31.2 billion), the U.S. ($28.4 billion), and the Netherlands ($20.1 billion).
In the global semiconductor equipment market, five major semiconductor equipment companies, including Applied Materials (U.S.), Lam Research (U.S.), KLA (U.S.), Tokyo Electron (Japan) and ASML (Netherlands), account for 79.5 percent of the total….
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
You think an incoming alternative gvernment will be cutting taxes?
"There seems to be the view that the current polls with a LAB leads getting into the low 30s won’t survive and in the end there will be a huge turn back to the Tories. Maybe. Maybe not."
As far as whether the Labour lead will survive, surely the view reflected in that chart is precisely "Maybe. Maybe not."
The Barty Bobs / HYUFD throwdown on the previous thread about South East England was pure Vogon poetry. Well done to all involved.
It’s quickly spread to this thread too 😯
Can I say, HY does have a good point - if London is a ”region” and South East is a region, how can two regions be in same place same time?
For example, can you tell me which region Oxford is in?
Oxford is also South East not London
Arguably, Oxford is the southern end of the Midlands. Banbury up the road isn't the SE for sure.
Oxford is definitely in the Midlands, it just won't admit it because of snobbery.
You would give Christ Church high table heart attacks if you told them they were eating in the Midlands!
You'd give them heart attacks if you tried to suggest we'd left the EU too.
They'd demand a carve out wherever you tried to place them. Oxford colleges are their own little universe. That much of the rest of the place is a dump smelling of piss passes them by.
The Wiki line of best fit is now Lab 49, Con 27.5 - ie lead 21.5.
That compares to Lab 53, Con 22 - ie lead 31 - which was the highest Lab lead.
Just before the Truss collapse it was Lab 41, Con 32 - ie lead 9.
So if we compare the position now to a base of just before the Truss collapse the changes are:
Lab +8 Con -4.5
.... which reflects the fact that the LDs and Greens are also down.
Another way of looking at it is that the Con rating has recovered 55% of its Truss collapse (ie 5.5/10). But it hasn't recovered 55% of the increase in the Lab lead - because Lab is up more than Con is down.
Looking at the last thread header it'll be interesting to see when 'Kwarteng' enters the dictionary. It's bound to happen but it's not obvious yet what it'll define. The obvious one 'Someone who brings down a government by being off the scale incompetent' seems like a waste. How often would you be able to use it? Someone who destroys a brand has been claimed by Gerald Ratner.
It's bound to happen. There's a word to describe the creation of such a word which I've just forgotten.....
Kwarteng vb. - to (usually unintentionally) cause extreme damage to a friend, generally due to some hairbrained scheme
Example: "I was happily running an electric car and rocket company when my mate persuaded me to buy Twitter. Guess he really Kwartenged me, lol"
An example of why US tech sanctions on China are very effective. The really big chip manufacturers Korea and Taiwan simply can’t operate without the US (though much the same applies in the opposite direction as far as chip manufacturing is concerned).
Korea highly dependent on foreign chip equipment: KITA https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/11/129_339135.html Korea's dependence on semiconductor equipment from the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands has reached 77.5 percent, sparking worries that the high level of dependence could be geopolitically and diplomatically risky in the future. Some experts are advising Korea to join the Chip 4 Alliance to ensure a stable supply of semiconductor equipment, according to a Korea International Trade Association (KITA) report, Thursday.
The KITA released a report titled, "Recent Semiconductor Equipment Trade Trends and Implications," and it states that global semiconductor equipment trade increased 2.4 percent year-on-year in 2018 due to a surge in global semiconductor equipment investment, recording a record high of $101.2 billion. The top three export countries for semiconductor equipment were Japan ($31.2 billion), the U.S. ($28.4 billion), and the Netherlands ($20.1 billion).
In the global semiconductor equipment market, five major semiconductor equipment companies, including Applied Materials (U.S.), Lam Research (U.S.), KLA (U.S.), Tokyo Electron (Japan) and ASML (Netherlands), account for 79.5 percent of the total….
The world is becoming increasingly interdependent. With my positive cap on this is good, as it means countries need to muddle along together more, decreasing the risks of conflict. With my negative hat on this is bad, as countries may decide to grab the reasons for interdependence, or use technology access as power levers (as the US is doing atm with chips).
Russia is discovering that having to import loads of white good in order to get simple chips is *not* an efficient way of doing things.
As for interdependence in the chip industry: I've said this before, but about ten years ago Mrs J had a chip project. The wafer was made in a fab in China; the wafers were transported to Austria for packaging (putting into the plastic or ceramic or ??? casing), then those were flown to the US and England for the main testing.
Why was it done that way? The company was American, and they had the test equipment for this design. The design had been done in the UK. The only fab plant available for the required process was in China (booked many months in advance), and the only place available to package them in the required manner was in Austria. And as wafers and chips are light and not that bulky, it is cheaper to fly them around the world than it is to try to set up new lines for production.
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
Is the real point of this sort of option that it is increases/changes to thresholds that require parliamentary votes but freezes are the default? So an easy thing for the Govt to get through.
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
It also passes on the problem to (potentially) the next Labour government.
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
Is the real point of this sort of option that it is increases/changes to thresholds that require parliamentary votes but freezes are the default? So an easy thing for the Govt to get through.
Well at most there could only be a need to vote on the threshold for the next tax year.
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates……
“Winning back their confidence won’t be easy. But the good news for Rishi Sunak was that they thought he was the best person to clean up the mess, and didn’t think that anyone else, including Keir Starmer, would do a better job.”
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
It also passes on the problem to (potentially) the next Labour government.
True of so many problems that the last 5 Conservative Prime Ministers have failed to address.
It is going to be a cleaning of the Augean stables for Starmer.
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates.
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates……
“Winning back their confidence won’t be easy. But the good news for Rishi Sunak was that they thought he was the best person to clean up the mess, and didn’t think that anyone else, including Keir Starmer, would do a better job.”
Which plays into yesterday's suggestion that Rishi's faux Boris act at PMQs is deeply mistaken, and that he should revert to being the calm financial technocrat instead.
Oxfordshire is difficult. Henley is South-East, Banbury is Midlands, Chipping Norton is Cotswolds, and Oxford is a huge ever growing pulsating brain that rules from the centre of the ultraworld, but with a traffic problem.
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
It looks to me like Rishi/Hunt will take the politically least risky decisions possible in this - more windfall tax/extend fiscal drag etc.
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
Thresholds reportedly to be frozen until 2028 (not that they’re likely to be in government that long). That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
It also passes on the problem to (potentially) the next Labour government.
True of so many problems that the last 5 Conservative Prime Ministers have failed to address.
It is going to be a cleaning of the Augean stables for Starmer.
I give it about 18 months until you're whining about his administration on here too and taking excitedly about the Lib Dems instead.
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
My judgment on this matter is final.
Alfred’s judgement was final.
Oxford is in Mercia
Yet, earlier, someone put Herefordshire in the West Midlands (= Mercia)
An outrage. I grew up in Herefordshire and everyone there deeply resented the idea of being lumped in with the horrors of Birmingham and Wolverhampton
Herefordshire is in the Marches. It is the beautiful defensive zone of England as it butts up against Wales. The Marches are lovely. West Midlands is not lovely
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates……
“Winning back their confidence won’t be easy. But the good news for Rishi Sunak was that they thought he was the best person to clean up the mess, and didn’t think that anyone else, including Keir Starmer, would do a better job.”
Which plays into yesterday's suggestion that Rishi's faux Boris act at PMQs is deeply mistaken, and that he should revert to being the calm financial technocrat instead.
And proves once again that people will forgive the Tories anything, like a cheating husband who keeps worming his way back into the marriage. Incredible.
Obviously, London is geographically in the South East, never mind what HYUFD thinks.
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
My judgment on this matter is final.
Alfred’s judgement was final.
Oxford is in Mercia
Yet, earlier, someone put Herefordshire in the West Midlands (= Mercia)
An outrage. I grew up in Herefordshire and everyone there deeply resented the idea of being lumped in with the horrors of Birmingham and Wolverhampton
Herefordshire is in the Marches. It is the beautiful defensive zone of England as it butts up against Wales. The Marches are lovely. West Midlands is not lovely
The West Midlands are in fact very lovely, or at least they were until somebody put Birmingham there.
It’s not forgotten by me, Starmer’s first PMQs question to Liz was simply “you’ve been telling hustings your not going to do Windfall Tax, are you serious?” She replied “yes I am serious, we are not doing a Windfall Tax.” And her premiership never really recovered from that moment. There is also a lot of PBers in the archives explaining not just how Labours idea for a Windfall tax is such a bad idea, but being quite specific how it’s impossible to raise the sort of £40bn Hunt is creaming.
And the budget will be creaming bank profits too - how much will that be?
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates.
AOTBE I'd expect some 'redwall' seats to stay blue next time, especially those which have been trending that way for some time.
The seats where old coal mining sites have been converted to brownfield commuter estates have probably changed for good- probably from safe Labour to classic marginal.
Voters in the historic “red wall” seat of Sedgefield in County Durham, where Tony Blair was once elected to parliament, are willing to give Rishi Sunak a chance to improve their prospects as the cost of living crisis deepens, since Keir Starmer is “not making a case for himself”.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates……
“Winning back their confidence won’t be easy. But the good news for Rishi Sunak was that they thought he was the best person to clean up the mess, and didn’t think that anyone else, including Keir Starmer, would do a better job.”
Which plays into yesterday's suggestion that Rishi's faux Boris act at PMQs is deeply mistaken, and that he should revert to being the calm financial technocrat instead.
And proves once again that people will forgive the Tories anything, like a cheating husband who keeps worming his way back into the marriage. Incredible.
The reality of the situation is that Rishi is a welcome change from Truss and Boris. It’s a low bar he can walk under. Arguing to the contrary is a waste of time. He will be thanked for that, at least in the short term.
What will become clear is that change whilst necessary, was insufficient. We are starting to see that already. The government is still a mess.
The Conservative party is still split and confused, the ministers are still tired, the economy is on its knees and Tory solutions have demonstrably failed. Your taxes are going up, your costs are going up. They will both likely stay up into 2024.
So the question will be do you want another 5 years of that? If Labour can demonstrate another way, the answer will be no.
What was the Home Office doing when it bussed "invasion" migrants to central London and abandoned them without supervision?
Are they expected to get to Rwanda on their own?
They were told it was illegal to hold them at Manston. So they removed them to London and said "go to your friends and families" as they dumped them at Victoria at 11pm.
Sounds perfectly sensible to me. Proof that Leaky Sue is in complete control of protecting our borders and not just letting people wander away.
Comments
Iran has as much right to meddle in the SMO as the UK does.
HYUFD = Have You Understood Fundamental Demographics?
Take that where it hurts, Labour.
And that’s just Energy firms, how much they also creaming off the banks?
And some PBers said these amounts were impossible 😤
The statistical regions are in some cases entirely artificial, and not supposed to trump everyday usage.
Personally, as I may have mentioned, I largely follow the watersheds, but correct using the the traditional county lines to avoid dismembering counties.
That puts Oxon, Berks, Herts, Essex, London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in the South East (or perhaps better, “Thames”).
Northants, Beds, Cambs, and East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk) are all “Eastern” counties.
Hampshire, Dorset and Wiltshire are “Wessex”, Somerset and Dorset are “South West”, and Cornwall is Cornwall.
The Midlands start with Gloucs and then run up through Warks, Leics, Rutland, Lincs.
My judgment on this matter is final.
"58% of the country think “The British government has lost control of the country’s borders”, according to new and exclusive polling by People Polling for GB News. This jumps to an even higher 75% among Conservative and 76% among Leavers. Only 14% of the country disagree the country has lost control of its borders."
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/exclusive-poll-nightmare-for-rishi-sunak-public-furious-as-uk-migration-rages-out-of-control/383163
That seems slightly improbable, but not impossible.
Next rise over here 0.75 or 1% ?
Who said this period was going to be boring?
However…
“Cabinet Secretary, how many people have we successfully deported to Rwanda?”
“None, Home Secretary.”
“Excellent. Then I think it’s time to extend the policy to Belize, Paraguay and Peru - so we can deport none there too.”
If Truss was still here would likely have been 1%
He is claiming it will raise £40 billion in 5 years. But the 25% supplemental windfall tax that had already been proposed by the Government was already going to raise around $10 billion a year for 5 years - which would have been £50 billion so they are claiming this proposal will raise less than their original plans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_counties_of_the_United_Kingdom
It’s not forgotten by me, Starmer’s first PMQs question to Liz was simply “you’ve been telling hustings your not going to do Windfall Tax, are you serious?” She replied “yes I am serious, we are not doing a Windfall Tax.” And her premiership never really recovered from that moment.
There is also a lot of PBers in the archives explaining not just how Labours idea for a Windfall tax is such a bad idea, but being quite specific how it’s impossible to raise the sort of £40bn Hunt is creaming.
And the budget will be creaming bank profits too - how much will that be?
They have certainly solved the over crowding crisis with these coach trips and random dumping, so Gale and Cooper just have to pipe down about it’s too full now.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-11-01/justice-dept-says-vigilante-ballot-security-measures-at-drop-boxes-probably-violates-the-federal-voting-rights-act
He is improbably thick, on a galactic scale.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-prepares-big-tax-grab-from-energy-firms-m7wdbv7pw (£££)
London and the South East.
The undoing of Liz Truss
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-slow-newscast/id1487320403
Don't expect fireworks on 17th November. They won't want anything that creates an exciting headline.
London is in the south eastern region or part of the UK. From an administrative perspective it is not part of the South East Region…
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/opinion/lng-carrier-rates-could-top-500-000-per-day-this-winter-in-a-super-tight-market/2-1-1305993
I think the issue is that if they are moored then they are not off getting your next load so you are just creating a bigger problem down the line
Basically - once again - the government (along with most other people) forgot that one of their primary roles is structural resilience
It's the fixed rates deals that are a killer.
That would add up over time to a very large middle income tax rise.
The really big chip manufacturers Korea and Taiwan simply can’t operate without the US (though much the same applies in the opposite direction as far as chip manufacturing is concerned).
Korea highly dependent on foreign chip equipment: KITA
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/11/129_339135.html
Korea's dependence on semiconductor equipment from the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands has reached 77.5 percent, sparking worries that the high level of dependence could be geopolitically and diplomatically risky in the future. Some experts are advising Korea to join the Chip 4 Alliance to ensure a stable supply of semiconductor equipment, according to a Korea International Trade Association (KITA) report, Thursday.
The KITA released a report titled, "Recent Semiconductor Equipment Trade Trends and Implications," and it states that global semiconductor equipment trade increased 2.4 percent year-on-year in 2018 due to a surge in global semiconductor equipment investment, recording a record high of $101.2 billion. The top three export countries for semiconductor equipment were Japan ($31.2 billion), the U.S. ($28.4 billion), and the Netherlands ($20.1 billion).
In the global semiconductor equipment market, five major semiconductor equipment companies, including Applied Materials (U.S.), Lam Research (U.S.), KLA (U.S.), Tokyo Electron (Japan) and ASML (Netherlands), account for 79.5 percent of the total….
As far as whether the Labour lead will survive, surely the view reflected in that chart is precisely "Maybe. Maybe not."
They'd demand a carve out wherever you tried to place them. Oxford colleges are their own little universe. That much of the rest of the place is a dump smelling of piss passes them by.
That compares to Lab 53, Con 22 - ie lead 31 - which was the highest Lab lead.
Just before the Truss collapse it was Lab 41, Con 32 - ie lead 9.
So if we compare the position now to a base of just before the Truss collapse the changes are:
Lab +8
Con -4.5
.... which reflects the fact that the LDs and Greens are also down.
Another way of looking at it is that the Con rating has recovered 55% of its Truss collapse (ie 5.5/10). But it hasn't recovered 55% of the increase in the Lab lead - because Lab is up more than Con is down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Example: "I was happily running an electric car and rocket company when my mate persuaded me to buy Twitter. Guess he really Kwartenged me, lol"
Are they expected to get to Rwanda on their own?
Russia is discovering that having to import loads of white good in order to get simple chips is *not* an efficient way of doing things.
As for interdependence in the chip industry: I've said this before, but about ten years ago Mrs J had a chip project. The wafer was made in a fab in China; the wafers were transported to Austria for packaging (putting into the plastic or ceramic or ??? casing), then those were flown to the US and England for the main testing.
Why was it done that way? The company was American, and they had the test equipment for this design. The design had been done in the UK. The only fab plant available for the required process was in China (booked many months in advance), and the only place available to package them in the required manner was in Austria. And as wafers and chips are light and not that bulky, it is cheaper to fly them around the world than it is to try to set up new lines for production.
Members of a focus group, conducted by UK More in Common for the Guardian, described Sunak as “the money man” with a CV that proves he was the “best of a bad bunch” of Conservative leadership candidates……
“Winning back their confidence won’t be easy. But the good news for Rishi Sunak was that they thought he was the best person to clean up the mess, and didn’t think that anyone else, including Keir Starmer, would do a better job.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/03/red-wall-voters-willing-to-give-rishi-sunak-a-chance-according-to-focus-group
It is going to be a cleaning of the Augean stables for Starmer.
Oxford is in Mercia
Peru is a mistake. Suella is definitely a bear of little brain.
Ha, on checking, is it Vik?
An outrage. I grew up in Herefordshire and everyone there deeply resented the idea of being lumped in with the horrors of Birmingham and Wolverhampton
Herefordshire is in the Marches. It is the beautiful defensive zone of England as it butts up against Wales. The Marches are lovely. West Midlands is
not lovely
Is Vik there? I can now say: Yes
What will become clear is that change whilst necessary, was insufficient. We are starting to see that already. The government is still a mess.
The Conservative party is still split and confused, the ministers are still tired, the economy is on its knees and Tory solutions have demonstrably failed. Your taxes are going up, your costs are going up. They will both likely stay up into 2024.
So the question will be do you want another 5 years of that? If Labour can demonstrate another way, the answer will be no.
Give them all a visa
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/give-our-young-people-visas-if-you-want-to-fix-the-migrant-crisis-albania-tells-britain/ar-AA13EQ8a?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=ddeeee09d7f0498becf9b1859d36adc9
Sounds perfectly sensible to me. Proof that Leaky Sue is in complete control of protecting our borders and not just letting people wander away.