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Will the Tories ever get over Kwarteng’s budget? – politicalbetting.com
Will the Tories ever get over Kwarteng’s budget? – politicalbetting.com
It was on September 23rd that Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his now infamous budget – the first big move by the Liz Truss government.
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Only really outdone by the 1940 cabinet crisis.
Will these people abstain at an actual GE? Rod Crosby would’ve said no. Gut instinct tells me yes, largely.
But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.
"AlistairM said:
These Russian mobilised troops aren't going to be very motivated to fight. Seems almost like a mutiny.
Russian mobiks are demanding the "promised" one-off payment of 300,00 roubles, which the military rep says was never actually promised to them 😂 They yell that the deputies should go fight themselves in this case.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587714068156129281"
300,000 x 800 = 240 million roubles saved by Putin yesterday alone....
The Ukrainian armed forces are saving him a mountain of money. (Although not sure if dead conscripts still qualify their family for a free Lada?)
"Bartholomew Roberts:
Moscow has blinked because Turkiye called their bluff and have been escorting the grain ships haven't they? If Russia attacks a Turkish ship, then that brings NATO Article 5 into the war.
Not to forget that the Turkish navy is far superior to the Russian one in the Black Sea.
Russia is f***ed and has no hope here, just like in most things. Completely outplayed and they know it."
Erdogan has had a good war, playing all sides off against each other.
Welcome to Tory topsy-turvey land. Most UK citizens oppose the UK government.
After Brexit, we saw tremendous wage growth in lower income professions, which generated a lot of goodwill towards Johnson before he screwed it up with partygate. Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation, in order to give a tax cut for the rich.
In Chuvashia, cannon fodder is dissatisfied with the lack of promised payments of 300 thousand rubles.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587769792823525379
But you want to double-down on the hubris. So Britain grew faster than the Eurozone in the decade pre-pandemic Despite Brexit™, but you think would have grown even faster had we not voted to Leave?
Make your choice if you want, but I'm happy to call out your hubris and nonsense. Britain has no divine right to grow faster than the Eurozone, although we did in the last decade there's no reason to think we'd have grown even faster than them in a path not taken.
No attempt to haul the country and markets to them first, no framing, no long debate like we had on the need or not for Austerity 2008 to 2010, just a lit match, a box of fireworks and a callous disregard for cause and effect.
No way the election will have even a 15 point gap, but the Tories are done. Its just a question of when they go and how many are left.
There’s a school of thought that Truss budget has been harshly treated - with over £20bn of stealth tax recouped it wasn’t the black hole budget, where pound went down, it’s now back where it was, borrowing costs had been going up all year anyway, and growth is the best way to afford things and pay for things. So the problem actually was caused by how the Tory Party’s own MPs didn’t back it, instead attacked it. And they were wrong to do that ill disciplined party thing, if they done it through being wedded to a failed economic orthodoxy and not giving new out the box thinking a chance.
Strange times indeed
Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses
Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
Meanwhile, as I keep pointing out, the consumer economy still seems to be going gangbusters. Hard to find a mid week table in most places I go do, let alone a weekend one....
"This one doesn't work. We need to replace it."
Whether they get any credit with the voters for replacing the shit show is still to be seen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4kQvkvGi9M
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
However there is no doubt the Truss Kwarteng budget like Black Wednesday for the Major government did a lot of damage to the Tories reputation for economic competence. Sunak and Hunt have a lot of work to do to restore it
UK
1% -> 3.5%
Germany
-0.2% -> 2.1%
US
1.5% -> 4%
France
0.1% -> 2.5%
Ireland
0.2% ->2.6%
Denmark
0.1% -> 2.5%
As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.
The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.
https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2022/08/15/one-in-seven-pubs-and-restaurants-lost-in-the-city-of-london-since-covid
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3606129-drone-attack-on-russian-warships-in-sevastopol-first-satellite-images.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
A Daily Mail headline for the ages, that one.
But she did. That's why they're throwing the gates to Manston open.
Unlikely to be similar to the City in other parts of the country since the City of London (not London) that was very much hit by work from home and the pandemic leading to fewer office workers wanting hospitality. As your own link says, the change is less than 5% in boroughs like Haringey and Barking and Dagenham.
In Liverpool the change is 1.3%
If there's staff shortages then they can and should pay better wages or give better working conditions to attract the staff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5cS0bZiJ1Q
Getting their arses kicked first by Eisenhower and then by De Gaulle didn't cause them much trouble in the polling stations.
In the next election they will probably win a plurality and quite possibly also a majority, perhaps a large one. Tories always call their opponents and (especially) each other "bedwetters" - a deeply unpleasant term that denotes children who have psychological problems coping with the environment of boarding school - but in actual fact they are the biggest bunch of scaredycat wusses out. Half of them here were worrying a few weeks ago that their voteshare might fall below 20% or even 10%. Tory MPs fear that after they've enjoyed a thrashing session at the capable hands of Miss Whiplash the electorate will then give them another whupping, which deep down they know they deserve. [*] Unfortunately many in the famous "WWC" keep voting for them, as do the over-60s.
Nobody will remember Kwarteng and his budget.
Thought experiment:
Tory election broadcast focusing on the White Wall - not using that term of course, but basically saying keep the immigrant invaders out - against a background of some highly memorable harsh policies against immigrants;
Labour election broadcast: oh that dreadful Kwarteng budget, and the Tories - so bad at managing the economy!
Note
*) Gyles Brandreth has to be applauded for his honesty. He said he always knew he had complete contempt for his electorate but what being voted out taught him was that the feeling was thoroughly mutual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKe8Ij3lM2U
Wowsers.
He does it with such bounce and energy!!!! But its a preposterous defence whilst Braverman is under the cost for repeated breaches this summer and now an FCA investigation.
Meanwhile Sunak renewed his Bouncy sub Boris impression, he had no grip of detail, obviously has no answer to difficult questions. He had a sticky wicket, but falling back on Corbyn is weak.
They stopped pretending.
The “we’re all in this together,” the “levelling up” stuff etc etc was always bullshit framing, but they got away with it.
They overreached.
The one thing, the only thing, that might mean that this isn’t a permanent scar on the party is that Sunak very publicly laid out why it was a bad idea beforehand.
He needs to fully cleanse the party, which he hasn’t done yet. It’s no good being magnanimous. He has to go in for the kill. Deselections. Let the Trussites hang.
I don’t think he will. And I think that’s a mistake that will leave a permanent scar on the tories.
If they want to actually show action, have the whole thing sponsored by Cisco Webex, as an example of the power of remote conferencing. Did nothing get learned from the pandemic?
The average man in the street might be convinced about changes in their own behaviour, once the people advocating for changed behaviour first do so themselves.
Migration is not something to be "tackled" or reduced.
Keir Starmer absolutely ran rings around Sunak this week.
Party unity probably stops Starmer from the response, but "I've cleared the loons from our front bench; you've promoted yours" more or less sums it up.
The rhetoric shifts from "We are maxed out on our credit card, insolvent due to government debt and the sick man of Europe"
to (what is the case but currently ignored)
"Of the G7 countries (all of which are civilised, democratic and liberal apart from the USA if Trumpism gets back) our public debt as % of GDP is the second lowest after Germany".
If we are bankrupt, then so is Japan, France, Italy, Canada and the USA.
I do not think that is enough fore them to win the state based on historical norms.
A Gen Z wave? If so a real change in young voter behaviour and a reason why polls could be out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXga14XIZ9M
Don’t you detect a weariness about Greta? Last week she said she doesn’t like politics, and has no intention of becoming a politician. I wouldn’t be surprised if she just disappeared from the campaigning now, and just settled down into more normal a life.
So no, if you compare and contrast Sunak’s eager beaver tweet today with the weariness coming from Greta, I don’t agree with you it’s strange the latter attends this COP and not the former.
It’s very weak. My hunch is that his number 10 setup isn’t functioning yet and he will improve eventually. But now it’s all noise and bluster. Perhaps it’s another case of ministerial experience not preparing you for the PM role.
SKS made a perfect little weapon against himself by smearing Corbyn and courteously handed it to Sunak, who is now using it, because why wouldn't he?
Latest @SavantaComRes data found that 46% of the public say attacking Starmer for Labour's association with Corbyn is unfair.
All
Fair 27%
Unfair 46%
2019 Con
Fair 40%
Unfair 38%
https://twitter.com/chrishopkins92/status/1587786813330038790?s=46&t=ITd2EfWMCAPS0KabZ51mGg
A professional pollster citing sub-samples?!? The scandal!
I never thought she would come out with lots of radical stuff that would sink her immediately.
“accepting that rural locations can also have pockets of extreme poverty too“
So You mean throughout the country throughout the South? Doesn’t that make a mockery of the whole concept of levelling up, when you come to define what’s being levelled up in that broader sense?
“The reintroduction of this apex predator triggered unanticipated ecological change in Yellowstone National Park, and it could only be a matter of years before wolves are translocated to Alladale,” he says. “There’s no doubting people would want to see them in the wild here.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/scotland-could-become-first-rewilded-nation-what-does-that-mean
Raab had his stuffed in his pocket in place of a hanky. Lol
Hopkins will be persona non grata on here from now on. You’d think people would ‘Remember Dickson’ and change their behaviour accordingly.
What currency devaluation?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html
Brace?
https://twitter.com/chriswarburton_/status/1587481512630419459?s=46&t=ITd2EfWMCAPS0KabZ51mGg
Cracking questions from SKS (sozza @bjo )
Our own Big G gave PM Liz support all the way up to the Monday following the budget, largely on the basis thank goodness shes not Boris, no one could be worse than Boris…
When asked if the two nations would accept nuclear weapons on their soil, Marin [Finland’s prime minister] replied: “We shouldn’t put any preconditions… We have decided that we don’t want to close any doors for the future.”
Kristersson [Sweden’s prime minister] agreed. “You will receive exactly the same answer from me as from the Finnish prime minister”, he said.
Nordic neighbours Denmark and Norway, which are already NATO members, have both refused to allow foreign countries to establish permanent military bases or nuclear weapons on their soil in peacetime.
https://www.thelocal.se/20221102/new-swedish-pm-says-open-to-nukes-under-nato/
There are few better arguments for in person meetings.