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Will the Tories ever get over Kwarteng’s budget? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 9 in General
imageWill the Tories ever get over Kwarteng’s budget? – politicalbetting.com

It was on September 23rd that Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his now infamous budget – the first big move by the Liz Truss government.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771
    First.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    edited November 2
    No. Black Wednesday on stilts. Up there with Suez.

    Only really outdone by the 1940 cabinet crisis.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462
    Has any poll / focus group work been targeted specifically at those who a) voted Con in 2019 b) supported Cons until Truss and c) now say they plan to vote Labour? Because for me, sans that kind of work, it's all just trying to read the tea leaves of cross tabs and needing a general theory of voter change (like assuming that mortgage holders were happy voting Con until the change in interest rates started buggering their mortgage payments)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228
    Very difficult to find a way back. Fiscal responsibility is part of it and Rishi/Hunt will have a good stab at that but ultimately they need to get the economy growing in a very tough environment where everyone around us will have a much worse recessions and bigger falls in discretionary spending. If ever there was a time to attach ourselves to the SE Asian tiger economies it's now, hopefully Kemi can make this happen because the European economy is going to be in the shit for the next decade at least.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    edited November 2
    148grss said:

    Has any poll / focus group work been targeted specifically at those who a) voted Con in 2019 b) supported Cons until Truss and c) now say they plan to vote Labour? Because for me, sans that kind of work, it's all just trying to read the tea leaves of cross tabs and needing a general theory of voter change (like assuming that mortgage holders were happy voting Con until the change in interest rates started buggering their mortgage payments)

    My reading of the result tables is that the Tories are suffering from record levels of abstentionism. Whereas approx 85% of Labour and SNP voters are intending on recasting their votes for the same parties, the Tories are down about 60% (with the Lib Dems sub-50%). Men are abstaining and women are more anti-Con. Ditto Remainers.

    Will these people abstain at an actual GE? Rod Crosby would’ve said no. Gut instinct tells me yes, largely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    Depends what the new Budget does to replace it in people's minds. If it gets interest rates back in balance, that might be the one they remember.

    But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    FPT:

    "AlistairM said:
    These Russian mobilised troops aren't going to be very motivated to fight. Seems almost like a mutiny.

    Russian mobiks are demanding the "promised" one-off payment of 300,00 roubles, which the military rep says was never actually promised to them 😂 They yell that the deputies should go fight themselves in this case.
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587714068156129281"


    300,000 x 800 = 240 million roubles saved by Putin yesterday alone....

    The Ukrainian armed forces are saving him a mountain of money. (Although not sure if dead conscripts still qualify their family for a free Lada?)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    edited November 2
    FPT

    "Bartholomew Roberts:

    Moscow has blinked because Turkiye called their bluff and have been escorting the grain ships haven't they? If Russia attacks a Turkish ship, then that brings NATO Article 5 into the war.

    Not to forget that the Turkish navy is far superior to the Russian one in the Black Sea.

    Russia is f***ed and has no hope here, just like in most things. Completely outplayed and they know it."



    Erdogan has had a good war, playing all sides off against each other.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/02/rishi-sunak-suella-braverman-british-politics-austerity-hostile-environment

    "Austerity in the Treasury; a hostile environment at the Home Office. After 12 years and four prime ministers, British politics has cycled back to where it started, but that much meaner and poorer. All for what? Where did the journey take us? To Brexit, to rage, to division and economic downgrade. A dozen years wasted. A crusade whipped up by nationalist zealots to a holy land that doesn’t exist to fight an enemy that was actually our friend, defeating no one but ourselves."

    Hmm. Becajuse there is no inflation or energy crisis in the EU. There are no EU countries with immigration policies like the UK. The EU central bank is not raising interest rates. There are no riots in France, or protests in Spain......No EU country has far right parties snapping at the heels of power.....
    First class whataboutery.
    Try reading the article. The point it is making isn't that the EU is better than us. It is that leaving the EU hasn't helped the UK in any way, while stoking division and distracting policymakers from our real problems - a point that voters seem to agree with.
    Brexit happened. You need to move on. As does the Guardian.
    The only way to move on is to accept the damage that Brexit has caused and seek to mitigate that damage. You need to realise that, accept responsibility for the division and harm you’ve caused, and work with the people to remedy it.
    Felix voted Remain.

    It's stunningly hypocritical for people who still haven't accepted the result of a democratic vote to demand atonement for the creation of division from the people who have.
    Six years ago, longer than the lifetime of a Parliament, and you got what you wanted. But I've never seen a group of winners more bitter at the shitness of the prize they won, while also insisting it be treated as an irreversible state religion.
    I also voted Remain.

    It may be hard to remember now, but many people genuinely did think that by voting for Brexit, they would put an end to the interminable debate about the European question in British politics. The primary reason this has not happened is because of Remainers not accepting the outcome.

    It will only be true to say that people who voted for Brexit got what they wanted when the issue is regarded as settled.
    Brexit will never be settled.

    The Eurosceptic shits made life hell from Macmillan to Cameron. Now the boot is on the other foot and we’re going to kick and kick and kick the shits in the goolies til the cows come home.

    (I can mix some more metaphors if you like.)
    From Sweden?
    If I held the opposite opinion, would my location undermine that opinion?
    No one needs to try to undermine your opinion. I was simply pointing out that you achieve it yourself every time you rail against the British government.
    Huh? Opposing the UK government automatically undermines one’s opinion?

    Welcome to Tory topsy-turvey land. Most UK citizens oppose the UK government.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 609
    It was an absolute shit show of a budget, worse than the ERM, because this was clearly self inflicted as a lone move by the Truss government, whereas ERM was a mistake supported by the whole political elite.

    After Brexit, we saw tremendous wage growth in lower income professions, which generated a lot of goodwill towards Johnson before he screwed it up with partygate. Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation, in order to give a tax cut for the rich.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527

    FPT:

    "AlistairM said:
    These Russian mobilised troops aren't going to be very motivated to fight. Seems almost like a mutiny.

    Russian mobiks are demanding the "promised" one-off payment of 300,00 roubles, which the military rep says was never actually promised to them 😂 They yell that the deputies should go fight themselves in this case.
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587714068156129281"


    300,000 x 800 = 240 million roubles saved by Putin yesterday alone....

    The Ukrainian armed forces are saving him a mountain of money. (Although not sure if dead conscripts still qualify their family for a free Lada?)

    Same situation, different part of Russia but this time even angrier. These are the people they are meant to be giving guns to!

    In Chuvashia, cannon fodder is dissatisfied with the lack of promised payments of 300 thousand rubles.
    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587769792823525379
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,987
    edited November 2

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    kjh said:

    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/02/rishi-sunak-suella-braverman-british-politics-austerity-hostile-environment

    "Austerity in the Treasury; a hostile environment at the Home Office. After 12 years and four prime ministers, British politics has cycled back to where it started, but that much meaner and poorer. All for what? Where did the journey take us? To Brexit, to rage, to division and economic downgrade. A dozen years wasted. A crusade whipped up by nationalist zealots to a holy land that doesn’t exist to fight an enemy that was actually our friend, defeating no one but ourselves."

    Hmm. Becajuse there is no inflation or energy crisis in the EU. There are no EU countries with immigration policies like the UK. The EU central bank is not raising interest rates. There are no riots in France, or protests in Spain......No EU country has far right parties snapping at the heels of power.....
    First class whataboutery.
    Try reading the article. The point it is making isn't that the EU is better than us. It is that leaving the EU hasn't helped the UK in any way, while stoking division and distracting policymakers from our real problems - a point that voters seem to agree with.
    Brexit happened. You need to move on. As does the Guardian.
    The only way to move on is to accept the damage that Brexit has caused and seek to mitigate that damage. You need to realise that, accept responsibility for the division and harm you’ve caused, and work with the people to remedy it.
    Felix voted Remain.

    It's stunningly hypocritical for people who still haven't accepted the result of a democratic vote to demand atonement for the creation of division from the people who have.
    Six years ago, longer than the lifetime of a Parliament, and you got what you wanted. But I've never seen a group of winners more bitter at the shitness of the prize they won, while also insisting it be treated as an irreversible state religion.
    I also voted Remain.

    It may be hard to remember now, but many people genuinely did think that by voting for Brexit, they would put an end to the interminable debate about the European question in British politics. The primary reason this has not happened is because of Remainers not accepting the outcome.

    It will only be true to say that people who voted for Brexit got what they wanted when the issue is regarded as settled.
    That’s ridiculous. The debate would have been settled years ago if Brexit were even remotely a success.

    The Eurosceptics fought a long, bitter and for the most part lonely battle against our membership for decades. They finally got what they wanted, and it’s shit. Now they want everyone to shut up about it - just like they did (not).
    Total nonsense, I'm afraid. The FBPE crowd never accepted that they had lost and, insofar as Brexit isn't a success, a significant share of the blame falls on those who spent years trying to overturn the referendum result rather than working to make it a success.
    What bollocks. How do those who tried to overturn it prevent it being a success? They have no powers to do so. Have they completely screwed the Northern Ireland situation? Have they created the nightmare for our exporters? No they haven't because they don't have one iota of power to do so even if they wanted to.

    Do you honestly think there are remainer business people going 'I'm just going to refuse to export to the EU to teach those leavers a lesson'?

    So how does a single remainer prevent it from being a success?
    They stopped us having a better Brexit in the 2017-9 parliament, because all the energy had to be spent on getting any Brexit through in the face of their anti-democratic obstructionism, leaving no bandwidth to work on getting the best Brexit.

    If they had started in June 2016 by saying "we lost, but only narrowly, there's a mandate to leave the political structures of the EU but no mandate for a hard Brexit" and actually worked for a soft Brexit from day one then that's what we would have got. Instead they left the choice of Brexit to a majority of a majority, which is still a minority.
    Oh please, this is nonsense. May immediately pivoted to a hard Brexit and whipped her party to vote down any compromise.
    May had to do that because the FBPE element was already set on reversal. By the time of the Lancaster House speech (seven months after the referendum) it was already clear that getting any Brexit through would be difficult. Then after the 2017 election, Labour set about making it impossible, despite their manifesto pledge without which they wouldn't have been able to get a hung parliament even after May's social care policy.

    It's really important to understand who the villain of the piece is here, because of the job now held by the ringleader.
    Worth pointing out that the "FBPE element" were the MPs voted for in the 2017 General Election. Whilst I agree that parliament was chaotic, you can't say it was undemocratic - it was quite literally the latest opinion as voted for by the public.
    Voted for in the 2017 General Election in the case of Labour MPs specifically on the basis of a pledge to uphold the referendum result, without which they wouldn't have got a hung parliament, and once they did get a hung parliament they immediately ignored the pledge and started obstructionism, led by the then Shadow Brexit Secretary.
    The 2017 manifesto promised to scrap the Conservatives' Brexit White Paper and replace with "fresh negotiating priorities" with strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs union. (this is cut and paste from the BBC summary of the manifesto). This is precisely what they tried to achieve during the parliament. May refused to compromise, even though the Labour version of Brexit likely had a majority and her version didn't. Why didn't she compromise to get Brexit through?
    She did compromise, her Backstop would have kept us in both the Single Market and the Customs Union. And we'd have had no unilateral way out of the Backstop either.

    Even that still wasn't enough, so thankfully that got defeated and we got a proper, cleaner Brexit instead.
    This "Proper, cleaner Brexit" has cost us a lot and inspired Liz Truss' "mini budget".

    The Brexit effect: how leaving the EU hit the UK
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y&t=280s
    Bollocks.

    In the decade pre-pandemic 2010-2019 Britain grew faster than the Eurozone both nominally and per capita. "Despite Brexit" being voted for in 2016 and dominating the latter half of that decade.

    It is pure hubris to think that we would have outgrown the Eurozone by even more had we not voted for Brexit.
    Let me see 'Barty Roberts' argument ("Bollocks")
    or the Financial Times carefully argued Youtube film complete with graphs and interviews?

    It's a tricky choice.
    My argument was not "Bollocks", that was a summary of my thoughts on what you said. My argument was in the next line.

    But you want to double-down on the hubris. So Britain grew faster than the Eurozone in the decade pre-pandemic Despite Brexit™, but you think would have grown even faster had we not voted to Leave?

    Make your choice if you want, but I'm happy to call out your hubris and nonsense. Britain has no divine right to grow faster than the Eurozone, although we did in the last decade there's no reason to think we'd have grown even faster than them in a path not taken.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited November 2
    Purely anecdotal, i mean massively so, but Pa Woolie was absolutely spitting feathers about the 45p on the day and before the currency crisis hit. Its the subsequent combination - 'they sunk the economy to cut tax for the rich', forget the nuance over amounts that were for this etc, thats the rub i think, its much clearer and starker than i felt it was at the time, others of you were much quicker on it of course. They rushed it out unecessarily and then didnt talk about helping us re CoL, just brushing over that to champion tax cuts for the rich then, as the world burned around them said 'we are going to do more of this, much more'
    No attempt to haul the country and markets to them first, no framing, no long debate like we had on the need or not for Austerity 2008 to 2010, just a lit match, a box of fireworks and a callous disregard for cause and effect.
  • No. The budget torpedoed a hole in their side and suddenly people started to realise that things aren't great and these chancers are only in it for themselves.

    No way the election will have even a 15 point gap, but the Tories are done. Its just a question of when they go and how many are left.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    On topic. What you are saying is certain events just have voters no longer listening to a political party which makes fight back hard?

    There’s a school of thought that Truss budget has been harshly treated - with over £20bn of stealth tax recouped it wasn’t the black hole budget, where pound went down, it’s now back where it was, borrowing costs had been going up all year anyway, and growth is the best way to afford things and pay for things. So the problem actually was caused by how the Tory Party’s own MPs didn’t back it, instead attacked it. And they were wrong to do that ill disciplined party thing, if they done it through being wedded to a failed economic orthodoxy and not giving new out the box thinking a chance.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566

    Depends what the new Budget does to replace it in people's minds. If it gets interest rates back in balance, that might be the one they remember.

    But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.

    Thing is, interest rates had been rising anyway. People renewing mortgages over hte next year or two were in for a bit of a nasty surprise, albeit made worse by the budget. Even if things end up back where they were pre-Truss, people will still be paying more on mortgages and will likely link that to the budget that led to interest rate rises. Few people experienced higher rates before the budget, many will experience them over the next few years.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 94
    edited November 2
    MaxPB said:

    Very difficult to find a way back. Fiscal responsibility is part of it and Rishi/Hunt will have a good stab at that but ultimately they need to get the economy growing in a very tough environment where everyone around us will have a much worse recessions and bigger falls in discretionary spending. If ever there was a time to attach ourselves to the SE Asian tiger economies it's now, hopefully Kemi can make this happen because the European economy is going to be in the shit for the next decade at least.

    Short-termism has crippled our economy. Quick fixes that just lead to terrible problems twenty years down the line. Ideological idiocy masquerading as economics. Both sides have played their part but the Cons recent record is truly pathetic. Until you recognise that you cannot move forward.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,448

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/02/rishi-sunak-suella-braverman-british-politics-austerity-hostile-environment

    "Austerity in the Treasury; a hostile environment at the Home Office. After 12 years and four prime ministers, British politics has cycled back to where it started, but that much meaner and poorer. All for what? Where did the journey take us? To Brexit, to rage, to division and economic downgrade. A dozen years wasted. A crusade whipped up by nationalist zealots to a holy land that doesn’t exist to fight an enemy that was actually our friend, defeating no one but ourselves."

    Hmm. Becajuse there is no inflation or energy crisis in the EU. There are no EU countries with immigration policies like the UK. The EU central bank is not raising interest rates. There are no riots in France, or protests in Spain......No EU country has far right parties snapping at the heels of power.....
    First class whataboutery.
    Try reading the article. The point it is making isn't that the EU is better than us. It is that leaving the EU hasn't helped the UK in any way, while stoking division and distracting policymakers from our real problems - a point that voters seem to agree with.
    Brexit happened. You need to move on. As does the Guardian.
    The only way to move on is to accept the damage that Brexit has caused and seek to mitigate that damage. You need to realise that, accept responsibility for the division and harm you’ve caused, and work with the people to remedy it.
    Felix voted Remain.

    It's stunningly hypocritical for people who still haven't accepted the result of a democratic vote to demand atonement for the creation of division from the people who have.
    Six years ago, longer than the lifetime of a Parliament, and you got what you wanted. But I've never seen a group of winners more bitter at the shitness of the prize they won, while also insisting it be treated as an irreversible state religion.
    I also voted Remain.

    It may be hard to remember now, but many people genuinely did think that by voting for Brexit, they would put an end to the interminable debate about the European question in British politics. The primary reason this has not happened is because of Remainers not accepting the outcome.

    It will only be true to say that people who voted for Brexit got what they wanted when the issue is regarded as settled.
    Brexit will never be settled.

    The Eurosceptic shits made life hell from Macmillan to Cameron. Now the boot is on the other foot and we’re going to kick and kick and kick the shits in the goolies til the cows come home.

    (I can mix some more metaphors if you like.)
    From Sweden?
    If I held the opposite opinion, would my location undermine that opinion?
    No one needs to try to undermine your opinion. I was simply pointing out that you achieve it yourself every time you rail against the British government.
    Huh? Opposing the UK government automatically undermines one’s opinion?

    Welcome to Tory topsy-turvey land. Most UK citizens oppose the UK government.
    Nope, its your railing against the Government as bogeyman when you aren't even here that is just pitiful.....
  • Good morning

    Strange times indeed

    Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses

    Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,448
    Selebian said:

    Depends what the new Budget does to replace it in people's minds. If it gets interest rates back in balance, that might be the one they remember.

    But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.

    Thing is, interest rates had been rising anyway. People renewing mortgages over hte next year or two were in for a bit of a nasty surprise, albeit made worse by the budget. Even if things end up back where they were pre-Truss, people will still be paying more on mortgages and will likely link that to the budget that led to interest rate rises. Few people experienced higher rates before the budget, many will experience them over the next few years.
    I have been pointing out FOR YEARS that mortages were bound to go up eventually.

    Meanwhile, as I keep pointing out, the consumer economy still seems to be going gangbusters. Hard to find a mid week table in most places I go do, let alone a weekend one....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    WillG said:

    It was an absolute shit show of a budget, worse than the ERM, because this was clearly self inflicted as a lone move by the Truss government, whereas ERM was a mistake supported by the whole political elite.

    After Brexit, we saw tremendous wage growth in lower income professions, which generated a lot of goodwill towards Johnson before he screwed it up with partygate. Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation, in order to give a tax cut for the rich.

    Tory MPs did at least act with alacrity to take back to the shop the PM bought by the members.

    "This one doesn't work. We need to replace it."

    Whether they get any credit with the voters for replacing the shit show is still to be seen.
  • AlistairM said:

    FPT:

    "AlistairM said:
    These Russian mobilised troops aren't going to be very motivated to fight. Seems almost like a mutiny.

    Russian mobiks are demanding the "promised" one-off payment of 300,00 roubles, which the military rep says was never actually promised to them 😂 They yell that the deputies should go fight themselves in this case.
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587714068156129281"


    300,000 x 800 = 240 million roubles saved by Putin yesterday alone....

    The Ukrainian armed forces are saving him a mountain of money. (Although not sure if dead conscripts still qualify their family for a free Lada?)

    Same situation, different part of Russia but this time even angrier. These are the people they are meant to be giving guns to!

    In Chuvashia, cannon fodder is dissatisfied with the lack of promised payments of 300 thousand rubles.
    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587769792823525379
    Pissing off the people you've given guns to always works well for Russia's leaders.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4kQvkvGi9M
  • Wowsers. Richard Burgon sat next to Andrew Bridgen on Politics Live. A comedy duo of political wazzocks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    edited November 2
    There has been something of a recovery for the Tories. The final Opinium poll under Truss had the Tories 27% behind and heading for Canada 1993 style annihilation with less than 50 seats and the SNP becoming the official opposition. Now under Sunak they are just 16% behind and heading for merely a 1997 style landslide defeat with about 178 Tory seats left.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    However there is no doubt the Truss Kwarteng budget like Black Wednesday for the Major government did a lot of damage to the Tories reputation for economic competence. Sunak and Hunt have a lot of work to do to restore it
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    edited November 2
    MaxPB said:

    Very difficult to find a way back. Fiscal responsibility is part of it and Rishi/Hunt will have a good stab at that but ultimately they need to get the economy growing in a very tough environment where everyone around us will have a much worse recessions and bigger falls in discretionary spending. If ever there was a time to attach ourselves to the SE Asian tiger economies it's now, hopefully Kemi can make this happen because the European economy is going to be in the shit for the next decade at least.

    And it revealed what the minority of 'free-market' Brexiters, the money men who paid for Farage and the rest, their allies on the nutty wing of the Tories, really wanted from their project - a bonanza for the rich and more immigration. Now that their agenda is soiled, it remains to be seen how much dirt has rubbed off on Brexit itself
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,462

    148grss said:

    Has any poll / focus group work been targeted specifically at those who a) voted Con in 2019 b) supported Cons until Truss and c) now say they plan to vote Labour? Because for me, sans that kind of work, it's all just trying to read the tea leaves of cross tabs and needing a general theory of voter change (like assuming that mortgage holders were happy voting Con until the change in interest rates started buggering their mortgage payments)

    My reading of the result tables is that the Tories are suffering from record levels of abstentionism. Whereas approx 85% of Labour and SNP voters are intending on recasting their votes for the same parties, the Tories are down about 60% (with the Lib Dems sub-50%). Men are abstaining and women are more anti-Con. Ditto Remainers.

    Will these people abstain at an actual GE? Rod Crosby would’ve said no. Gut instinct tells me yes, largely.
    That fits with discussions I've heard about how Tories have lost elections in the past - I remember listening to a Talking Politics episode that discussed the role Tory abstentionism played in the 1997 election and how, typically, Tory voters either vote or don't and very rarely swap their vote. But considering some of the changes of the political landscape in the last decade their seem to be more voters who must have voted Lab in one election deciding to vote Con in 2019 and now deciding to go back to Lab, and it's those voters that probably show where the significant dividing line between the parties is.
  • Wowsers. Richard Burgon sat next to Andrew Bridgen on Politics Live. A comedy duo of political wazzocks.

    A grouping so dense, the fabric of time and space will be bending round the studio.....
    A beautiful example of why party politics is not an absolute. We have good, bad and absurd in all parties. The difference is that Burgon and his ideas have no influence in the Labour party, and Bridgen and his ideas have a lot of influence in the Tory party.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,205
    HYUFD said:

    There has been something of a recovery for the Tories. The final Opinium poll under Truss had the Tories 27% behind and heading for annihilation. Now under Sunak they are just 16% behind and heading for merely a 1997 style landslide defeat.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    However there is no doubt the Truss Kwarteng budget like Black Wednesday for the Major government did a lot of damage to the Tories reputation for economic competence. Sunak and Hunt have a lot of work to do to restore it

    If Labour have no ideas and are ineffective, then things will just keep improving for the tories.
  • 10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.

    And that's even with the BoE yesterday making history and engaging in active QT unlike the ECB or rest of the wold.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,931
    Mortimer said:

    Selebian said:

    Depends what the new Budget does to replace it in people's minds. If it gets interest rates back in balance, that might be the one they remember.

    But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.

    Thing is, interest rates had been rising anyway. People renewing mortgages over hte next year or two were in for a bit of a nasty surprise, albeit made worse by the budget. Even if things end up back where they were pre-Truss, people will still be paying more on mortgages and will likely link that to the budget that led to interest rate rises. Few people experienced higher rates before the budget, many will experience them over the next few years.
    I have been pointing out FOR YEARS that mortages were bound to go up eventually.

    Meanwhile, as I keep pointing out, the consumer economy still seems to be going gangbusters. Hard to find a mid week table in most places I go do, let alone a weekend one....
    14% fewer restaurants in London, and some of those that are operating have staff shortages are a bigger factor in harder to find tables than high consumer demand. Imagine it is similar in many other parts of the country.

    https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2022/08/15/one-in-seven-pubs-and-restaurants-lost-in-the-city-of-london-since-covid
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    A satellite recorded the Admiral Grihorovich-class frigate in the open sea in tow. In five hours, the vessel ended up berthed by a mooring wall in Streltsk Bay in Sevastopol.

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3606129-drone-attack-on-russian-warships-in-sevastopol-first-satellite-images.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,931
    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    There has been something of a recovery for the Tories. The final Opinium poll under Truss had the Tories 27% behind and heading for annihilation. Now under Sunak they are just 16% behind and heading for merely a 1997 style landslide defeat.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    However there is no doubt the Truss Kwarteng budget like Black Wednesday for the Major government did a lot of damage to the Tories reputation for economic competence. Sunak and Hunt have a lot of work to do to restore it

    If Labour have no ideas and are ineffective, then things will just keep improving for the tories.
    Surely no ideas implemented ineffectively is better than lunatic ideas implemented abysmally?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    There has been something of a recovery for the Tories. The final Opinium poll under Truss had the Tories 27% behind and heading for annihilation. Now under Sunak they are just 16% behind and heading for merely a 1997 style landslide defeat.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    However there is no doubt the Truss Kwarteng budget like Black Wednesday for the Major government did a lot of damage to the Tories reputation for economic competence. Sunak and Hunt have a lot of work to do to restore it

    If Labour have no ideas and are ineffective, then things will just keep improving for the tories.
    Surely no ideas implemented ineffectively is better than lunatic ideas implemented abysmally?
    Yes, which is why they replaced Truss with Sunak.
  • Braverman mouths "no I didn't" to the question pointing out that she broke the law.

    But she did. That's why they're throwing the gates to Manston open.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    Why are MPs wearing a dead pheasant in their lapels?
  • Why isn't Rishi wearing a Morrissey like half the rest of the house? Commemorating that Top of the Pops performance is important.
  • Mortimer said:

    Selebian said:

    Depends what the new Budget does to replace it in people's minds. If it gets interest rates back in balance, that might be the one they remember.

    But Kwarteng will always be a by-word for shit-shaped hubris.

    Thing is, interest rates had been rising anyway. People renewing mortgages over hte next year or two were in for a bit of a nasty surprise, albeit made worse by the budget. Even if things end up back where they were pre-Truss, people will still be paying more on mortgages and will likely link that to the budget that led to interest rate rises. Few people experienced higher rates before the budget, many will experience them over the next few years.
    I have been pointing out FOR YEARS that mortages were bound to go up eventually.

    Meanwhile, as I keep pointing out, the consumer economy still seems to be going gangbusters. Hard to find a mid week table in most places I go do, let alone a weekend one....
    14% fewer restaurants in London, and some of those that are operating have staff shortages are a bigger factor in harder to find tables than high consumer demand. Imagine it is similar in many other parts of the country.

    https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2022/08/15/one-in-seven-pubs-and-restaurants-lost-in-the-city-of-london-since-covid
    14% in the City of London, not London, as your own link makes clear.

    Unlikely to be similar to the City in other parts of the country since the City of London (not London) that was very much hit by work from home and the pandemic leading to fewer office workers wanting hospitality. As your own link says, the change is less than 5% in boroughs like Haringey and Barking and Dagenham.

    In Liverpool the change is 1.3%

    If there's staff shortages then they can and should pay better wages or give better working conditions to attract the staff.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890

    Braverman mouths "no I didn't" to the question pointing out that she broke the law.

    Opposition MPs mouth "Behind you!" in reply.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    Sunak confusing asylum and immigration.
  • I love Rishi. He's so happy to be PM! And keeps giving bouncy responses! Its just that he's attacking the opposition for a system which he admits he has broken...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    Why isn't Rishi wearing a Morrissey like half the rest of the house? Commemorating that Top of the Pops performance is important.

    If it was good enough for Bernard Manning....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5cS0bZiJ1Q
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402

    Why are MPs wearing a dead pheasant in their lapels?

    Wheat for National Something-or-other-to-do-with-Farming Day.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,450
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/02/rishi-sunak-suella-braverman-british-politics-austerity-hostile-environment

    "Austerity in the Treasury; a hostile environment at the Home Office. After 12 years and four prime ministers, British politics has cycled back to where it started, but that much meaner and poorer. All for what? Where did the journey take us? To Brexit, to rage, to division and economic downgrade. A dozen years wasted. A crusade whipped up by nationalist zealots to a holy land that doesn’t exist to fight an enemy that was actually our friend, defeating no one but ourselves."

    Hmm. Becajuse there is no inflation or energy crisis in the EU. There are no EU countries with immigration policies like the UK. The EU central bank is not raising interest rates. There are no riots in France, or protests in Spain......No EU country has far right parties snapping at the heels of power.....
    First class whataboutery.
    Try reading the article. The point it is making isn't that the EU is better than us. It is that leaving the EU hasn't helped the UK in any way, while stoking division and distracting policymakers from our real problems - a point that voters seem to agree with.
    Brexit happened. You need to move on. As does the Guardian.
    The only way to move on is to accept the damage that Brexit has caused and seek to mitigate that damage. You need to realise that, accept responsibility for the division and harm you’ve caused, and work with the people to remedy it.
    Felix voted Remain.

    It's stunningly hypocritical for people who still haven't accepted the result of a democratic vote to demand atonement for the creation of division from the people who have.
    Six years ago, longer than the lifetime of a Parliament, and you got what you wanted. But I've never seen a group of winners more bitter at the shitness of the prize they won, while also insisting it be treated as an irreversible state religion.
    I also voted Remain.

    It may be hard to remember now, but many people genuinely did think that by voting for Brexit, they would put an end to the interminable debate about the European question in British politics. The primary reason this has not happened is because of Remainers not accepting the outcome.

    It will only be true to say that people who voted for Brexit got what they wanted when the issue is regarded as settled.
    Brexit will never be settled.

    The Eurosceptic shits made life hell from Macmillan to Cameron. Now the boot is on the other foot and we’re going to kick and kick and kick the shits in the goolies til the cows come home.

    (I can mix some more metaphors if you like.)
    From Sweden?
    If I held the opposite opinion, would my location undermine that opinion?
    No one needs to try to undermine your opinion. I was simply pointing out that you achieve it yourself every time you rail against the British government.
    Huh? Opposing the UK government automatically undermines one’s opinion?

    Welcome to Tory topsy-turvey land. Most UK citizens oppose the UK government.
    Nope, its your railing against the Government as bogeyman when you aren't even here that is just pitiful.....
    The Tory government is Le grand merde tout le monde, that is pitiful.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 534
    edited November 2

    No. Black Wednesday on stilts. Up there with Suez.

    Only really outdone by the 1940 cabinet crisis.

    The Tories increased their majority from 60 to 100 in the first general election after Suez.

    Getting their arses kicked first by Eisenhower and then by De Gaulle didn't cause them much trouble in the polling stations.

    In the next election they will probably win a plurality and quite possibly also a majority, perhaps a large one. Tories always call their opponents and (especially) each other "bedwetters" - a deeply unpleasant term that denotes children who have psychological problems coping with the environment of boarding school - but in actual fact they are the biggest bunch of scaredycat wusses out. Half of them here were worrying a few weeks ago that their voteshare might fall below 20% or even 10%. Tory MPs fear that after they've enjoyed a thrashing session at the capable hands of Miss Whiplash the electorate will then give them another whupping, which deep down they know they deserve. [*] Unfortunately many in the famous "WWC" keep voting for them, as do the over-60s.

    Nobody will remember Kwarteng and his budget.

    Thought experiment:

    Tory election broadcast focusing on the White Wall - not using that term of course, but basically saying keep the immigrant invaders out - against a background of some highly memorable harsh policies against immigrants;

    Labour election broadcast: oh that dreadful Kwarteng budget, and the Tories - so bad at managing the economy!

    Note

    *) Gyles Brandreth has to be applauded for his honesty. He said he always knew he had complete contempt for his electorate but what being voted out taught him was that the feeling was thoroughly mutual.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,989

    Why isn't Rishi wearing a Morrissey like half the rest of the house? Commemorating that Top of the Pops performance is important.

    If it was good enough for Bernard Manning....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5cS0bZiJ1Q
    His next album will include a song about the Manchester Arena bombing:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKe8Ij3lM2U
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,843
    Has he answered one question yet?
  • pingping Posts: 3,212
    edited November 2
    The tories took their mask off.

    They stopped pretending.

    The “we’re all in this together,” the “levelling up” stuff etc etc was always bullshit framing, but they got away with it.

    They overreached.

    The one thing, the only thing, that might mean that this isn’t a permanent scar on the party is that Sunak very publicly laid out why it was a bad idea beforehand.

    He needs to fully cleanse the party, which he hasn’t done yet. It’s no good being magnanimous. He has to go in for the kill. Deselections. Let the Trussites hang.

    I don’t think he will. And I think that’s a mistake that will leave a permanent scar on the tories.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    Pro_Rata said:

    Has he answered one question yet?

    That would be an ecumenical matter.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Has he answered one question yet?

    He will not respond to any questions that relate to the Autumn statement no matter how hard mps try to force the issue
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    ping said:

    The tories took their mask off.

    They stopped pretending.

    The “we’re all in this together,” the “levelling up” stuff etc etc was always bullshit framing, but they got away with it.

    They overreached.

    The one thing, the only thing, that might mean that this isn’t a permanent scar on the party is that Sunak very publicly laid out why it was a bad idea beforehand.

    He needs to fully cleanse the party, which he hasn’t done yet. It’s no good being magnanimous. He has to go in for the kill. Deselections. Let the Trussites hang.

    I don’t think he will. And I think that’s a mistake that will leave a permanent scar on the tories.

    A swivel eyed membership won't deselect the swivel eyed MPs. More likely to deselect the residual One Nationers.
  • Not at all impressed with Sunak conflating asylum with migration. Sunak talking about "tackling migration" and "reducing migration".

    Migration is not something to be "tackled" or reduced.

    Keir Starmer absolutely ran rings around Sunak this week.

    But his core voters think its the same issue...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566

    Sunak going on the attack over national security by talking about Corbyn.

    Wowsers.

    He does it with such bounce and energy!!!! But its a preposterous defence whilst Braverman is under the cost for repeated breaches this summer and now an FCA investigation.

    It's bizarre. Starmer has very clearly purged the Corbynites. There will be embarassing statements of support to be dragged up, but then there are will be plenty of Sunak saying what a great guy Johnson is, too. And that's rather more recent history and there are still a lot of familiar faces on the Tory front bench.

    Party unity probably stops Starmer from the response, but "I've cleared the loons from our front bench; you've promoted yours" more or less sums it up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,585

    10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.

    And that's even with the BoE yesterday making history and engaging in active QT unlike the ECB or rest of the wold.
    One indicator to watch out if the UK economic/political situation begins to stabilise:

    The rhetoric shifts from "We are maxed out on our credit card, insolvent due to government debt and the sick man of Europe"

    to (what is the case but currently ignored)

    "Of the G7 countries (all of which are civilised, democratic and liberal apart from the USA if Trumpism gets back) our public debt as % of GDP is the second lowest after Germany".

    If we are bankrupt, then so is Japan, France, Italy, Canada and the USA.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Hmmm, Dems only have a 50k advantage in registered voters in Nevada.

    I do not think that is enough fore them to win the state based on historical norms.
  • Sunak is going to keep mentioning Brexit and Corbyn every week, isn't he?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,301
    Midterms - 40% of 18-29 year olds will 'definitely vote'.
    A Gen Z wave? If so a real change in young voter behaviour and a reason why polls could be out.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXga14XIZ9M
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    America is two different countries in the same Household, for some New Hampshire polling on Biden approval


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    algarkirk said:

    10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.

    And that's even with the BoE yesterday making history and engaging in active QT unlike the ECB or rest of the wold.
    One indicator to watch out if the UK economic/political situation begins to stabilise:

    The rhetoric shifts from "We are maxed out on our credit card, insolvent due to government debt and the sick man of Europe"

    to (what is the case but currently ignored)

    "Of the G7 countries (all of which are civilised, democratic and liberal apart from the USA if Trumpism gets back) our public debt as % of GDP is the second lowest after Germany".

    If we are bankrupt, then so is Japan, France, Italy, Canada and the USA.

    The last decade and a half have been run on the zero-rate never-never, by governments in pretty much all developed countries. The next decade is going to be horrific, as interest rates return to normal levels and that massive debt needs to be serviced.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Pro_Rata said:

    Has he answered one question yet?

    No, and you will find that its the fault of the last Labour government that he won't do so.
    And Putin. And covid.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157

    Why are MPs wearing a dead pheasant in their lapels?

    Wheat for National Something-or-other-to-do-with-Farming Day.
    Could also be seen as a tribute to Turkey and Ukraine sticking two fingers up at Putin over the grain deal.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566
    'Levelling up' is dangerous ground for Sunak, given that video of him trumpeting unlevelling up the already high...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.

    And that's even with the BoE yesterday making history and engaging in active QT unlike the ECB or rest of the wold.
    One indicator to watch out if the UK economic/political situation begins to stabilise:

    The rhetoric shifts from "We are maxed out on our credit card, insolvent due to government debt and the sick man of Europe"

    to (what is the case but currently ignored)

    "Of the G7 countries (all of which are civilised, democratic and liberal apart from the USA if Trumpism gets back) our public debt as % of GDP is the second lowest after Germany".

    If we are bankrupt, then so is Japan, France, Italy, Canada and the USA.

    The last decade and a half have been run on the zero-rate never-never, by governments in pretty much all developed countries. The next decade is going to be horrific, as interest rates return to normal levels and that massive debt needs to be serviced.
    You are forgetting the decade before that when debt and leverage grew out of control.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited November 2

    Good morning

    Strange times indeed

    Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses

    Rishi Sunak to attend COP27

    Greta isn’t actually invited to COP, she wasn’t to 26, so it’s hardly a boycott. She showed up for the fringe around 26.

    Don’t you detect a weariness about Greta? Last week she said she doesn’t like politics, and has no intention of becoming a politician. I wouldn’t be surprised if she just disappeared from the campaigning now, and just settled down into more normal a life.

    So no, if you compare and contrast Sunak’s eager beaver tweet today with the weariness coming from Greta, I don’t agree with you it’s strange the latter attends this COP and not the former.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,683
    Selebian said:

    'Levelling up' is dangerous ground for Sunak, given that video of him trumpeting unlevelling up the already high...

    That wasn't un-levelling though was it? That was accepting that rural locations can also have pockets of extreme poverty too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,616
    Sunak seems to be approaching PMQs like a failing opposition leader. Chuck out yesterdays slogans and complain about long gone politicians. Corbyn is the new Thatch. So tired. He can’t answer a single question, because he’s not in top of the details.

    It’s very weak. My hunch is that his number 10 setup isn’t functioning yet and he will improve eventually. But now it’s all noise and bluster. Perhaps it’s another case of ministerial experience not preparing you for the PM role.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566
    algarkirk said:

    10 year borrowing rates, change in the last year:

    UK

    1% -> 3.5%

    Germany

    -0.2% -> 2.1%

    US

    1.5% -> 4%

    France

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    Ireland

    0.2% ->2.6%

    Denmark

    0.1% -> 2.5%

    As you can see, basically all up 2.5%.

    The UK was worse after the minibudget, but it's right on trend now.

    And that's even with the BoE yesterday making history and engaging in active QT unlike the ECB or rest of the wold.
    One indicator to watch out if the UK economic/political situation begins to stabilise:

    The rhetoric shifts from "We are maxed out on our credit card, insolvent due to government debt and the sick man of Europe"

    to (what is the case but currently ignored)

    "Of the G7 countries (all of which are civilised, democratic and liberal apart from the USA if Trumpism gets back) our public debt as % of GDP is the second lowest after Germany".

    If we are bankrupt, then so is Japan, France, Italy, Canada and the USA.

    Whenever I hear about the UK's credit card, I do wonder wistfully about who gets all the Avios points :hushed:
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286

    Good morning

    Strange times indeed

    Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses

    Rishi Sunak to attend COP27

    Greta isn’t actually invited to COP, she wasn’t to 26, so it’s hardly a boycott. She showed up for the fringe around 26.

    Don’t you detect a weariness about Greta? Last week she said she doesn’t like politics, and has no intention of becoming a politician. I wouldn’t be surprised if she just disappeared from the campaigning now, and just settled down into more normal a life.

    So no, if you compare and contrast Sunak’s eager beaver tweet today with the weariness coming from Greta, I don’t agree with you it’s strange the latter attends this COP and not the former.
    I hope for her sake that she does.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566

    Selebian said:

    'Levelling up' is dangerous ground for Sunak, given that video of him trumpeting unlevelling up the already high...

    That wasn't un-levelling though was it? That was accepting that rural locations can also have pockets of extreme poverty too.
    Indeed they can. Much of Lincolnshire, as an example that's not just 'pockets'. If that was the context for the comments he made, then I'd be very interested to see it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    Just watched PMQs

    SKS made a perfect little weapon against himself by smearing Corbyn and courteously handed it to Sunak, who is now using it, because why wouldn't he?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    edited November 2
    Sunak keeps harping on about Jeremy Corbyn at #PMQs - does anyone actually care?

    Latest @SavantaComRes data found that 46% of the public say attacking Starmer for Labour's association with Corbyn is unfair.

    All
    Fair 27%
    Unfair 46%

    2019 Con
    Fair 40%
    Unfair 38%


    https://twitter.com/chrishopkins92/status/1587786813330038790?s=46&t=ITd2EfWMCAPS0KabZ51mGg

    A professional pollster citing sub-samples?!? The scandal!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    I must confess I got Liz Truss completely wrong. I shared @Big_G_NorthWales view (correct me if I am wrong Big G). I thought there was a 90% chance she was going to be a big fat damp squib, poleaxed by her inability to present and coming up with nothing new. I also thought there was a 10% chance she was going to surprise us on the upside coming out with new popular ideas starting with the energy crisis.

    I never thought she would come out with lots of radical stuff that would sink her immediately.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Selebian said:

    'Levelling up' is dangerous ground for Sunak, given that video of him trumpeting unlevelling up the already high...

    That wasn't un-levelling though was it? That was accepting that rural locations can also have pockets of extreme poverty too.
    A blue wall by election was lost in Tiverton on the understanding their local school was delapitated, but the Tory’s only have special pots of largess for run down area’s in the red wall.

    “accepting that rural locations can also have pockets of extreme poverty too“
    So You mean throughout the country throughout the South? Doesn’t that make a mockery of the whole concept of levelling up, when you come to define what’s being levelled up in that broader sense?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    When are the US mid term Elections?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    Scotland could become first ‘rewilded’ nation—what does that mean?

    “The reintroduction of this apex predator triggered unanticipated ecological change in Yellowstone National Park, and it could only be a matter of years before wolves are translocated to Alladale,” he says. “There’s no doubting people would want to see them in the wild here.”


    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/scotland-could-become-first-rewilded-nation-what-does-that-mean
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228

    When are the US mid term Elections?

    Tuesday.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,618
    A rather unbalanced set of local by-elections tomorrow. There are 4 Con defences (Croydon, Lichfield, Nottinghamshire, and Wiltshire) and 3 Lib Dem defences (Moray, and South Cambridgeshire (2)). The Moray one is unusual in that the Lib Dem was elected unopposed together with an SNP and a Con. So expect an SNP gain.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak seems to be approaching PMQs like a failing opposition leader. Chuck out yesterdays slogans and complain about long gone politicians. Corbyn is the new Thatch. So tired. He can’t answer a single question, because he’s not in top of the details.

    It’s very weak. My hunch is that his number 10 setup isn’t functioning yet and he will improve eventually. But now it’s all noise and bluster. Perhaps it’s another case of ministerial experience not preparing you for the PM role.

    After watching PMQs, I was about to say something similar but you have beaten me to it. If Rishi's USP is supposed to be that he is the calm technocrat after the chaotic reigns of Boris and LizT, then he undermines it each Wednesday.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited November 2

    Why are MPs wearing a dead pheasant in their lapels?

    https://www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-information/back-british-farming-day-2022/

    Raab had his stuffed in his pocket in place of a hanky. Lol
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309

    Sunak keeps harping on about Jeremy Corbyn at #PMQs - does anyone actually care?

    Latest @SavantaComRes data found that 46% of the public say attacking Starmer for Labour's association with Corbyn is unfair.

    All
    Fair 27%
    Unfair 46%

    2019 Con
    Fair 40%
    Unfair 38%


    https://twitter.com/chrishopkins92/status/1587786813330038790?s=46&t=ITd2EfWMCAPS0KabZ51mGg

    A professional pollster citing sub-samples?!? The scandal!


    Hopkins will be persona non grata on here from now on. You’d think people would ‘Remember Dickson’ and change their behaviour accordingly.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    WillG said:

    It was an absolute shit show of a budget, worse than the ERM, because this was clearly self inflicted as a lone move by the Truss government, whereas ERM was a mistake supported by the whole political elite.

    After Brexit, we saw tremendous wage growth in lower income professions, which generated a lot of goodwill towards Johnson before he screwed it up with partygate. Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation, in order to give a tax cut for the rich.

    “Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation”

    What currency devaluation?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    WASHINGTON — Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, contributing to heightened concern in Washington and allied capitals, according to multiple senior American officials.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html

    Brace?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    ITV should now pay whatever it takes to have Dominic Cummings dropped in as one of the secret celebs half way through

    https://twitter.com/chriswarburton_/status/1587481512630419459?s=46&t=ITd2EfWMCAPS0KabZ51mGg
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426

    WillG said:

    It was an absolute shit show of a budget, worse than the ERM, because this was clearly self inflicted as a lone move by the Truss government, whereas ERM was a mistake supported by the whole political elite.

    After Brexit, we saw tremendous wage growth in lower income professions, which generated a lot of goodwill towards Johnson before he screwed it up with partygate. Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation, in order to give a tax cut for the rich.

    “Then Truss undid that wage increase with the currency devaluation”

    What currency devaluation?
    There is none so blind as those who will not see.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,718
    Rishi has made himself a hostage to fortune with his comments on migration.

    Cracking questions from SKS (sozza @bjo )
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    kjh said:

    I must confess I got Liz Truss completely wrong. I shared @Big_G_NorthWales view (correct me if I am wrong Big G). I thought there was a 90% chance she was going to be a big fat damp squib, poleaxed by her inability to present and coming up with nothing new. I also thought there was a 10% chance she was going to surprise us on the upside coming out with new popular ideas starting with the energy crisis.

    I never thought she would come out with lots of radical stuff that would sink her immediately.

    Well she spent two months of campaign clearly promising exactly what she did, and still believes in.

    Our own Big G gave PM Liz support all the way up to the Monday following the budget, largely on the basis thank goodness shes not Boris, no one could be worse than Boris…
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    New Swedish PM says open to nukes under Nato

    When asked if the two nations would accept nuclear weapons on their soil, Marin [Finland’s prime minister] replied: “We shouldn’t put any preconditions… We have decided that we don’t want to close any doors for the future.”

    Kristersson [Sweden’s prime minister] agreed. “You will receive exactly the same answer from me as from the Finnish prime minister”, he said.

    Nordic neighbours Denmark and Norway, which are already NATO members, have both refused to allow foreign countries to establish permanent military bases or nuclear weapons on their soil in peacetime.


    https://www.thelocal.se/20221102/new-swedish-pm-says-open-to-nukes-under-nato/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,485
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    Strange times indeed

    Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses

    Rishi Sunak to attend COP27

    Will anyone take in-person climate conferences seriously, while hundreds of attendees fly in to it, many on private or governmental aircraft?

    If they want to actually show action, have the whole thing sponsored by Cisco Webex, as an example of the power of remote conferencing. Did nothing get learned from the pandemic?

    The average man in the street might be convinced about changes in their own behaviour, once the people advocating for changed behaviour first do so themselves.
    I had to use Cisco WebEx last week.

    There are few better arguments for in person meetings.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Driver said:

    Good morning

    Strange times indeed

    Greta Thunberg to boycott COP27 due to human right abuses

    Rishi Sunak to attend COP27

    Greta isn’t actually invited to COP, she wasn’t to 26, so it’s hardly a boycott. She showed up for the fringe around 26.

    Don’t you detect a weariness about Greta? Last week she said she doesn’t like politics, and has no intention of becoming a politician. I wouldn’t be surprised if she just disappeared from the campaigning now, and just settled down into more normal a life.

    So no, if you compare and contrast Sunak’s eager beaver tweet today with the weariness coming from Greta, I don’t agree with you it’s strange the latter attends this COP and not the former.
    I hope for her sake that she does.
    Then we are on the same page for once 🙂
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824

    Not at all impressed with Sunak conflating asylum with migration. Sunak talking about "tackling migration" and "reducing migration".

    Migration is not something to be "tackled" or reduced.

    Keir Starmer absolutely ran rings around Sunak this week.

    He missed a possible knockout blow, however, when Sunak tried to respond by having a go at Labour for not having a clear stance on immigration. So recently after the Truss-Braverman farrago!
This discussion has been closed.