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In an hour we’ll find out if Penny Mordaunt is the new Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    ydoethur said:

    Magic Grandpa


    I wonder if Sunak will dare to troll Labour by pulling out that old John Major poster?

    'What do the Tories offer the son of Hindu immigrants from Tanzania?

    They made him Prime Minister.'
    I’m not sure “they made him Prime Minister”
    is a good look. The British people may not like being reminded that all but 81,000 of them haven’t actually had a vote in the last two choices of Prime Minister.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680

    Penny hasn't done her credibility much good by this charade.

    Yes, almost Borisian with that suggestion she had 90 supporters. Everyone could see it was a lie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Scott_xP said:
    Another statement with hidden messages - showing leg to the members and talking about the process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,635
    So Mordaunt concedes, Sunak is now Conservative leader and PM elect
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King's not in London, so probably not.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,079
    edited October 2022
    Well what a horlicks I made of the betting. Backing Starmer and laying both Rishi and Boris pre-match was the error. Getting on Boris at 30 was correct but the smaller liability on Rishi remained throughout.
    Nothing too disastrous though.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 688
    My Indian colleagues are referring to this as a reverse takeover....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    I am so utterly delighted at Rishi winning the vote and look forward to his premiership

    Back on board, BigG? Wahey.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    edited October 2022

    Penny hasn't done her credibility much good by this charade.

    If Mordaunt wasn't laying herself on Betfair, she'd better have a good excuse.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    edited October 2022
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt withdraws!

    Sunak coronated nem con.

    Well, he's not Disraeli, but after the last four years he's a relief.

    Fantastic news. Richi is the future.

    A quick question for you @ydoethur . Is there any available mechanism available now for this Parliament to be extended by Royal Prerogative for another two years? Nearly 4.5 years would give enough time to take the Conservatives past Labour in the polls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    One nomination. Done and dusted.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Born within a few days of me in the same hospital.
  • Supposedly Bozza had the numbers but chose to withdraw.
    Supposedly Mordaunt had the numbers but now has dropped out of the race.

    Expectation management not a thing in the Tory party...

    The 1922 committee confirmed that Boris did have the numbers.
    I remain sceptical. But if that is true then for perhaps the first time in his life Boris Johnson put someone else first ahead of himself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430
    edited October 2022
    Driver said:

    Roger said:

    To be honest, Steve Baker interests me, for two reasons, he interviews so well, quite a brilliant communicator. But he also knows his mind - he describes himself as Free Market Left, and if he wishes to expand on what that means anytime I would be keen to listen.

    Compare and contrast Steve Baker so strong on media rounds this weekend with Penny Mourdant’s latest car crash interview. I am saying the differential between them is Steve Baker knows his mind, to answer questions he goes straight to that, out comes confident clear answers, Mourdant turns to a lot of empty space where there are no answers.

    I’m not making an ideological point, the point I am making is politics works best, and more honestly, when politicians and parties have a clear ethos, and they just want to honestly talk about it and explain it.

    Yes, this is why Corbyn did better than expected in 2017. The problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. Their thoughts are clear and easy to express because they can't engage with the complexity of the real world. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.
    Johnson is nuts too of course, in a different way. He deals with the complexity of the world by believing in nothing except his own advancement, and simply tells people what they want to hear. This turns out to be a surprisingly successful strategy in the right hands.
    I suspect Sunak is not nuts but will struggle to get a hearing from the electorate. The Tories will get a bounce because he is an improvement on Truss. But I think they'd be better off choosing Johnson again. They're screwed whatever, anyway.
    “problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.”

    Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.

    A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?

    I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.

    Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
    What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round? I heard a program the other night which said Norway in the 60's was one of the poorest countries in the World. Now it's the richest. Their population is the same as Scotland. No jiggery pokery with rich peoples tax rates. If there are simplistic answers I'd advise Scotland to follow Norway and start a rapid hunt for more oil and then get out of this stifling Union,
    “What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round?”

    I can answer your question Roger, through explaining what has made Sunak Primeminister.

    Alternatives, such as Boris 2.0 makes Ready 4 Rishi seem more appetising than it really is. Sunak has won despite being an abysmal campaigner who literally cannot understand what voters want, he does not moderate his pitch from "I know what's best for you, so I don't need to listen" this proved as fact watching Team Truss running rings around Rishi all summer.
    Most of all he won by riding a wave of kudos and credibility right now, from saying to Truss if you win and attempt your economic policies, you will break the economy. So everyone from MPs down through party members down to ordinary voters have it in mind Rishi is the right man for the moment, to tackle the economic crisis.

    But here’s the kicker, Sunak’s wave of fiscal credibility is fake. Liz and Kwarzi did not break the economy, Sunak handed it to them broken.

    From 2010 to 2019 UK borrowed about £750 billion of which half was created by the Bank of England through QE. Since 2001 UK has borrowed £1.4 trillion. Rishi then borrowed further £375 billion throwing money at Covid in a pandemic fighting splurge as though ‘austerity’ is a ‘political choice’. Pointless money-pits like Eat Out to Help Out only served to show that the government treated borrowed cash like confetti. Sunak sprayed a further £30bn of confetti to gangsters and fraudsters.

    Sunak’s dangerous economic thinking is because Sunakonomics is all part of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and money printing creating inflation, this inflation was first mainly in the housing market and stock exchange, but January 2022, a month before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation was running at 5.5 per cent in the UK, 5.1 per cent in the EU and 7.5 per cent in the USA. When Liz Truss told Rishi control over interest rates must be taken from the BoE, Liz Truss was right. The current economic orthodoxy has failed us - an insane housing market, negative real interest rates, double digit inflation, taxes at a 70 year high, exponential spending on the worst health service in Europe, £2.4 trillion of debt and lower wages than we had in 2008. The country needs the change to the liberal economics Truss espoused - BoE and Rishi Sunak will not run the liberal economic policy the country needs.

    So I am saying all the MPs and voters are wrong to be so ready for Rishi? Yep. My argument is going back to Rishi’s economics is just plain wrong, stupid and dangerous - it’s a doom loop, low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer, so inflation persists.
    The problem is that the economic orthodoxy which has failed (but is still espoused by, amongst others, Sunak and Sir Keir) is the only one the markets will allow.
    Not true.

    Previous governments had at least paid lip service to balancing the books, Kwasi Kwarteng took to the airwaves to announce that he intended to make more unfunded tax cuts, Truss denied spending cuts were coming on basis borrowing won’t be scaled back. The bond markets, seeing no plan for growth and no sign of an interest rate rise, perfectly fairly demanded a greater return on their investment.

    In just 44 days Liz Truss gave a massive gift to the nation as she has proved that austerity was not a ‘political choice’. - government cannot endlessly borrow money at low rates without having a plan to pay it back, or at least scale it down. If gilt yields rising above 4 per cent (which is not high by pre this recent new orthodoxy standards) is a national emergency, the era of big borrowing is now over.

    There’s different approaches to the same destination, but theres only one destination now. The same applies to Labour, if they win the next election they will have to raise taxes, and be unpopular, they will have to make cuts, and be unpopular, because they won’t be able to raise borrowing with anything like the same qualitative and quantitative largesses we have seen this century. Starmer was actually dumb and out of touch enough to use an example of interest rate pain against Truss at last weeks PMQs, what an idiot, setting himself up nicely for a biblical fall in 2029 or sooner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,635
    Brady just confirmed Sunak is elected leader of the Conservative Party and will make a statement at 2 30pm
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    edited October 2022
    Sunak standing on a chair in 25 mins
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Penny stayed in long enough to ensure no reverse ferret from Boris
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Magic Grandpa


    I'm not sure of the relevance of a tweet from 2017 from the ex-leader of the Labour Party. Am I missing something?
    No.

    (Other than the PB Tories' creepily weird nostalgic obsession with a bloke who is not a Labour MP)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt withdraws!

    Sunak coronated nem con.

    Well, he's not Disraeli, but after the last four years he's a relief.

    Fantastic news. Richi is the future.

    A quick question for you @ydoethur . Is there any available mechanism available now for this Parliament to be extended by Royal Prerogative for another two years? Nearly 5 years would give enough time to take the Conservatives passed Labour in the polls.
    Only if the Civil Contingencies Act is invoked and the emergency precludes an election.

    Or if Parliament votes to suspend the Dissolution and Recall of Parliament Act 2022, but that doesn't meet your criteria.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2022
    Brady says only received ONE valid nomination - which raises questions over Johnson’s 102….

    Sunak will address MPs in 1922 room at 2.30.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Pulpstar said:

    Well what a horlicks I made of the betting. Backing Starmer and laying both Rishi and Boris pre-match was the error. Getting on Boris at 30 was correct but the smaller liability on Rishi remained throughout.
    Nothing too disastrous though.

    Once Truss got the top job, it never was going to be Starmer. I too laid Rishi in the early days but now have a nice profit from lumping on since Friday
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited October 2022
    They have to get a meeting with Chaz at BUckingham Palace sorted out tomorrow, I suppose. He'll be looking forward to going to COP 26 after all.
  • kinabalu said:

    I am so utterly delighted at Rishi winning the vote and look forward to his premiership

    Back on board, BigG? Wahey.
    I am definitely on board from today
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    HYUFD said:

    Brady just confirmed Sunak is elected leader of the Conservative Party and will make a statement at 2 30pm

    Presume that statement is private to MPs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Corks popping in BJP HQ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253

    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Born within a few days of me in the same hospital.
    Only three years older than me. Frightening.

    Younger than Cameron or Blair when they became PM, I think. Younger than anyone since 1783 except possibly Liverpool.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    Bridgen jokes with Hodges that hes off to get his letter in
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    Supposedly Bozza had the numbers but chose to withdraw.
    Supposedly Mordaunt had the numbers but now has dropped out of the race.

    Expectation management not a thing in the Tory party...

    The 1922 committee confirmed that Boris did have the numbers.
    I remain sceptical. But if that is true then for perhaps the first time in his life Boris Johnson put someone else first ahead of himself.
    No. He had no choice.
  • Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.

    Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.

    Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.

    Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.

    Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
    If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.

    There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
    No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
    Good start.

    We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.

    Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
    It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
    I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.

    If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.

    If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
    You are a purveyor of the politics of envy. You are no better than Jeremy Corbyn. As I have said to you before, if you spent a little more time working, and a little less time writing politically and economically incoherent bollox on here, then maybe you could afford a few more of the things you are so jealous of other people for having.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.

    Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.

    Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.

    Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.

    Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
    If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.

    There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
    No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
    Good start.

    We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.

    Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
    It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
    I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.

    If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.

    If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
    "... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."

    That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.

    You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
    Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?

    Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
    What makes the income of old graduates "unearned?"

    You are living proof that the politics of envy is a thing.
    Amusing to see the parasites who want to evade tax that others are expected to pay lash out about "envy".

    Suggesting that everyone should pay the same tax rate isn't a politics of "envy". Suggesting that others should pay tax, but not you, that is.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Rishi 👍
  • Seems to me that Penny might have got a phone call from Sir Graham shortly before 2pm inviting her to consider whether she really wanted to maintain her candidacy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Years or inches?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253

    Brady says only received ONE valid nomination - which raises questions over Johnson’s 102….

    Sunak will address MPs in 1922 room at 2.30.

    If he didn't put his candidacy forward, it isn't a valid nomination.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    edited October 2022
    One candidate? What sort of "election" is that? Rishi "Xi" Sunak rubberstamped by the 1922 politburo.

    Utter scandal. Whither democracy? General Election now!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612

    Magic Grandpa


    I'm not sure of the relevance of a tweet from 2017 from the ex-leader of the Labour Party. Am I missing something?
    No.

    (Other than the PB Tories' creepily weird nostalgic obsession with a bloke who is not a Labour MP)
    Those were the days! 'Strong and stable' 'Get Brexit done'. Life was so much easier for the Tories back in the 2010s, eh?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King's not in London, so probably not.
    Isn’t he returning later today?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272

    Brady says only received ONE valid nomination - which raises questions over Johnson’s 102….

    Sunak will address MPs in 1922 room at 2.30.

    I don’t think his counted even if we’re to believe he had 102 as he withdrew.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    So - are we ready for Rishi?

    Because ready or not, here he comes.
  • MikeL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brady just confirmed Sunak is elected leader of the Conservative Party and will make a statement at 2 30pm

    Presume that statement is private to MPs.
    It will be live on Sky/BBC
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946
    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King is out of town.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt withdraws!

    Sunak coronated nem con.

    Well, he's not Disraeli, but after the last four years he's a relief.

    Fantastic news. Richi is the future.

    A quick question for you @ydoethur . Is there any available mechanism available now for this Parliament to be extended by Royal Prerogative for another two years? Nearly 5 years would give enough time to take the Conservatives passed Labour in the polls.
    Only if the Civil Contingencies Act is invoked and the emergency precludes an election.

    Or if Parliament votes to suspend the Dissolution and Recall of Parliament Act 2022, but that doesn't meet your criteria.
    Thanks. I doubt he can turn the tanker around in two years, but I wish Mr Sunak very well. He is undoubtedly capable.

    The beauty is Johnson is face down in the water! Paragraph one was my fear were Johnson PM and China invaded Taiwan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,635
    Penddu2 said:

    My Indian colleagues are referring to this as a reverse takeover....

    Sunak was born in the UK not India even if he has Indian heritage
  • Rishi 👍

    Like having a bad tooth pulled. You know it will be sore for a while, but oh the relief!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,475
    IanB2 said:

    Sunak standing on a chair in 25 mins

    Some atelier in Paris will be getting a discreet order for a Sarkozy box.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Betvictor have paid out on my Rishi bets already. credit to them. 365 not yet but fair enough. And looks like Paddy's might make me wait til next GE before paying out on Truss not to face a VONC before then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Born within a few days of me in the same hospital.
    Only three years older than me. Frightening.

    Younger than Cameron or Blair when they became PM, I think. Younger than anyone since 1783 except possibly Liverpool.
    Blimey, you look a lot older than 39 in your photo @ydoethur !
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    Bob Seely:

    100% support for Rishi

    Numbers were close
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    Cleverly trying not to sound too miserable and also carefully not saying anything nice about Sunak himself.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Brady says only received ONE valid nomination - which raises questions over Johnson’s 102….

    Sunak will address MPs in 1922 room at 2.30.

    Guys! We totally smashed it!


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603


    When I was in India in July, there was a lot of excitement about Sunak. I predict they will find a way to do that trade deal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,483

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt withdraws!

    Sunak coronated nem con.

    Well, he's not Disraeli, but after the last four years he's a relief.

    Fantastic news. Richi is the future.

    A quick question for you @ydoethur . Is there any available mechanism available now for this Parliament to be extended by Royal Prerogative for another two years? Nearly 4.5 years would give enough time to take the Conservatives past Labour in the polls.
    No. Statute intervenes requiring elections to a 5 year formula. An Act of Parliament would do it but there are one or two problems with that, like outbreak of Civil War.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    edited October 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Born within a few days of me in the same hospital.
    Only three years older than me. Frightening.

    Younger than Cameron or Blair when they became PM, I think. Younger than anyone since 1783 except possibly Liverpool.
    Blimey, you look a lot older than 39 in your photo @ydoethur !
    It's the regeneration process.

    Oddly, I was talking to somebody a few days ago who refused to believe I was in my late thirties because I look so young. It wasn't until I reminded him he'd known me for eight years and I was over thirty when he met me that he was convinced!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Welp, got this one wrong and no mistake.
  • Betvictor have paid out on my Rishi bets already. credit to them. 365 not yet but fair enough. And looks like Paddy's might make me wait til next GE before paying out on Truss not to face a VONC before then.

    Presumably Betfair will be waiting 6 months in case of legal challenges.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272
    Cleverly just fxck off . You wanted him to stay in July after everything .
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    ydoethur said:

    So - are we ready for Rishi?

    Because ready or not, here he comes.

    Only two years of Rishi Rich at the most, but it could be an interesting ride along the way. Don't think for a second he has a united party behind him.
  • Driver said:

    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King is out of town.
    The King being in the wrong place is something else that should have been sorted out.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    At this stage i think the public will probably be prepared to now consider the Tories for a sizeable 2023/4 opposition
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    Rishi's starting point:

    Con Most seats 2.76

    Con Maj 6.2

    GE date:
    2022: 24
    2023: 4.6
    2024: 1.32
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Excitement over... Going to finish making a new back door for the kitchen. Mrs DA at DEFCON FAST PACE over it.
  • IanB2 said:

    Sunak standing on a chair in 25 mins

    John Major had a (reinforced) crate he used to stand on. Sunak could do the same. A bigger one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    I am so utterly delighted at Rishi winning the vote and look forward to his premiership

    Back on board, BigG? Wahey.
    I am definitely on board from today
    Never in doubt, never in doubt ...
  • Betvictor have paid out on my Rishi bets already. credit to them. 365 not yet but fair enough. And looks like Paddy's might make me wait til next GE before paying out on Truss not to face a VONC before then.

    Sky not yet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    'Nobody knows how long they'll be in a job.'

    In your case, James, I'm confident we do...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,469
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigel Adams:
    Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”

    Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1584518455503355904

    So he wasnt lying about that, just time wasting and making his allies look stupid
    He knew he would only be PM for a few weeks - Committee of Privileges holed him under the waterline in a way only he could know.

    "Loving the adulation, guys - but not this time...."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    I am old enough to remember when the last PM was chosen. It all started with excitement last time. I wonder how much this honeymoon will last.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    HYUFD said:

    Penddu2 said:

    My Indian colleagues are referring to this as a reverse takeover....

    Sunak was born in the UK not India even if he has Indian heritage
    Unless and until Boris produces the list of his mystery nominees, the wise position is to assume he was lying, regardless of what some geezer on the 1922 committee is reported as saying.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.

    Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.

    Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.

    Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.

    Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
    If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.

    There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
    No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
    Good start.

    We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.

    Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
    It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
    I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.

    If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.

    If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
    You are a purveyor of the politics of envy. You are no better than Jeremy Corbyn. As I have said to you before, if you spent a little more time working, and a little less time writing politically and economically incoherent bollox on here, then maybe you could afford a few more of the things you are so jealous of other people for having.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.

    Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.

    Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.

    Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.

    Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
    If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.

    There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
    No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
    Good start.

    We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.

    Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
    It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
    I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.

    If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.

    If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
    "... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."

    That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.

    You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
    Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?

    Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
    What makes the income of old graduates "unearned?"

    You are living proof that the politics of envy is a thing.
    Amusing to see the parasites who want to evade tax that others are expected to pay lash out about "envy".

    Suggesting that everyone should pay the same tax rate isn't a politics of "envy". Suggesting that others should pay tax, but not you, that is.
    How cross you get, Barty. I am now a parasite who expects to, and does, pay his taxes, just as I am a NIMBY who has not in 30 years of home ownership objected to a planning application or voted on the basis of housing policy.

    Top tip: at your age I was working too hard to have posted on PB before 7 in the evening, and then only once or twice a week. Why not get a job, and work towards a goal of parasitic nimbyism for yourself?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,461
    The Tories messed up both recent leadership elections. The first one was far too long in terms of the time it took, and this one was far too short. Overcorrection.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    edited October 2022
    BFE has paid out; well I never

    And Ladbrokes
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Betfair haven't settled as yet
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    At last, someone in charge who gives the semblance of being a grownup.

    I reserve judgement but he was by far the best candidate for the situation at hand. I don’t think he can tempt me back to the Tory fold - the country needs change. But I am glad the party has acted responsibly for once and hope it is the start of a new direction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    Thought:

    Consecutive MPs for Richmond have now been Tory leader.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,461

    Brady says only received ONE valid nomination - which raises questions over Johnson’s 102….

    Sunak will address MPs in 1922 room at 2.30.

    It doesn't raise any questions about it. Johnson decided not to stand.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    edited October 2022
    148grss said:

    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter

    They made the wrong choice then.

    Whether Sunak is the right choice is a different question, but he is clearly a better choice.

    Frankly, I'm just pleased she's gone and Johnson's control of the party seems to be broken.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigel Adams:
    Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”

    Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1584518455503355904

    So he wasnt lying about that, just time wasting and making his allies look stupid
    He knew he would only be PM for a few weeks - Committee of Privileges holed him under the waterline in a way only he could know.

    "Loving the adulation, guys - but not this time...."
    My guess is that Boris slowly realised he'd had three exotic holidays this summer alone, and not paid for one of them himself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,635
    ydoethur said:

    Thought:

    Consecutive MPs for Richmond have now been Tory leader.

    Though the first one failed to win a general election, can the second?
  • MikeL said:

    Rishi's starting point:

    Con Most seats 2.76

    Con Maj 6.2

    GE date:
    2022: 24
    2023: 4.6
    2024: 1.32

    Lab Maj 2.32 looks pretty good value to me.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    148grss said:

    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter

    Sod the Tory membership. They have played a large part in this mess.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,939
    How it works: James Cleverly

    'Replacing Liz Truss would be politically and economically disastrous'
    -13 October

    'Boris Johnson has learned his lessons. I will be voting for him'
    -23 October

    'I voted for Rishi Sunak'
    -24 October
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,253
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thought:

    Consecutive MPs for Richmond have now been Tory leader.

    Though the first one failed to win a general election, can the second?
    Probably not.

    They were both very young as well - Hague at 38 and Sunak at 42.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    To be honest, Steve Baker interests me, for two reasons, he interviews so well, quite a brilliant communicator. But he also knows his mind - he describes himself as Free Market Left, and if he wishes to expand on what that means anytime I would be keen to listen.

    Compare and contrast Steve Baker so strong on media rounds this weekend with Penny Mourdant’s latest car crash interview. I am saying the differential between them is Steve Baker knows his mind, to answer questions he goes straight to that, out comes confident clear answers, Mourdant turns to a lot of empty space where there are no answers.

    I’m not making an ideological point, the point I am making is politics works best, and more honestly, when politicians and parties have a clear ethos, and they just want to honestly talk about it and explain it.

    Yes, this is why Corbyn did better than expected in 2017. The problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. Their thoughts are clear and easy to express because they can't engage with the complexity of the real world. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.
    Johnson is nuts too of course, in a different way. He deals with the complexity of the world by believing in nothing except his own advancement, and simply tells people what they want to hear. This turns out to be a surprisingly successful strategy in the right hands.
    I suspect Sunak is not nuts but will struggle to get a hearing from the electorate. The Tories will get a bounce because he is an improvement on Truss. But I think they'd be better off choosing Johnson again. They're screwed whatever, anyway.
    “problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.”

    Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.

    A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?

    I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.

    Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
    What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round? I heard a program the other night which said Norway in the 60's was one of the poorest countries in the World. Now it's the richest. Their population is the same as Scotland. No jiggery pokery with rich peoples tax rates. If there are simplistic answers I'd advise Scotland to follow Norway and start a rapid hunt for more oil and then get out of this stifling Union,
    “What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round?”

    I can answer your question Roger, through explaining what has made Sunak Primeminister.

    Alternatives, such as Boris 2.0 makes Ready 4 Rishi seem more appetising than it really is. Sunak has won despite being an abysmal campaigner who literally cannot understand what voters want, he does not moderate his pitch from "I know what's best for you, so I don't need to listen" this proved as fact watching Team Truss running rings around Rishi all summer.
    Most of all he won by riding a wave of kudos and credibility right now, from saying to Truss if you win and attempt your economic policies, you will break the economy. So everyone from MPs down through party members down to ordinary voters have it in mind Rishi is the right man for the moment, to tackle the economic crisis.

    But here’s the kicker, Sunak’s wave of fiscal credibility is fake. Liz and Kwarzi did not break the economy, Sunak handed it to them broken.

    From 2010 to 2019 UK borrowed about £750 billion of which half was created by the Bank of England through QE. Since 2001 UK has borrowed £1.4 trillion. Rishi then borrowed further £375 billion throwing money at Covid in a pandemic fighting splurge as though ‘austerity’ is a ‘political choice’. Pointless money-pits like Eat Out to Help Out only served to show that the government treated borrowed cash like confetti. Sunak sprayed a further £30bn of confetti to gangsters and fraudsters.

    Sunak’s dangerous economic thinking is because Sunakonomics is all part of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and money printing creating inflation, this inflation was first mainly in the housing market and stock exchange, but January 2022, a month before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation was running at 5.5 per cent in the UK, 5.1 per cent in the EU and 7.5 per cent in the USA. When Liz Truss told Rishi control over interest rates must be taken from the BoE, Liz Truss was right. The current economic orthodoxy has failed us - an insane housing market, negative real interest rates, double digit inflation, taxes at a 70 year high, exponential spending on the worst health service in Europe, £2.4 trillion of debt and lower wages than we had in 2008. The country needs the change to the liberal economics Truss espoused - BoE and Rishi Sunak will not run the liberal economic policy the country needs.

    So I am saying all the MPs and voters are wrong to be so ready for Rishi? Yep. My argument is going back to Rishi’s economics is just plain wrong, stupid and dangerous - it’s a doom loop, low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer, so inflation persists.
    Interesting. Are you an economist? Sadly I'm not. I'm almost certain Rishi will make a better fist of it than Truss. The proof is staring us in the face. She almost broke the bank. Rishi was pro Brexit which suggests to me he is a philistine and probably only interested getting rich which as it's turned out he got quite wrong. Brexit turns out to have been financially ruinous as well as culturally.
    No I’m not an economist! I’m a farmers daughter who didn’t go to school very often.

    I’m arguing dumping Truss for Rishi is an economic disaster for UK, based on reading PB and other sources over the last year or so. Being able to post and get answers back helps learning a lot too.

    The economic orthodoxy Starmer and Rishi Sunak believe in is old fashioned and dangerous now, it’s ruined our country to such a degree trying to blame Brexit for the mess we are in is so patently dumb.

    Rish Sunaks economic policy is dying and needs to be abandoned asap becuase we can’t borrow cheap money and throw it around like confetti anymore.

    Once I pieced this puzzle together I can clearly see the picture now, and it’s quite exciting, feels like an achievement for me working all this out so I can clearly see the picture and understand the politics going on so much better 🙂
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    George Freeman saying Penny may well have got 100.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,635
    Jonathan said:



    When I was in India in July, there was a lot of excitement about Sunak. I predict they will find a way to do that trade deal.

    A pure trade deal yes, free movement from India would go down badly in the redwall
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter

    Sod the Tory membership. They have played a large part in this mess.
    I mean, if the Tory party is concerned about winning elections and its longevity, alienating the membership is not great.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    edited October 2022

    Betfair haven't settled as yet

    Betfair have settled on Boris's nominations and Rishi as Conservative leader, and LizT's exit date as party leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Roger said:

    I didn't realise Rishi was only 42

    Yes, and only in parliament for 7 years. As ydoerthur noted hed been lucky in his rise, even if he he will now lose the next GE.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    The Fat Slug – WITHDRAWN
    Penny Mournders and her Double Entendres – WITHDRAWN
    Billy the Rish – APPOINTED

    Returning officer: Graham Brady Old Lady


  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am so utterly delighted at Rishi winning the vote and look forward to his premiership

    Back on board, BigG? Wahey.
    I am definitely on board from today
    Never in doubt, never in doubt ...
    It was all over for me if Johnson had won it and I have made that clear for a long time

    Johnson appalled me and I was polititically homeless, but Rishi's election has changed all that
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,238
    edited October 2022
    So the Conservative Party has given us three female Prime Ministers (least said about the final two the better mind ;) ) and now the the first ethnic minority Prime Minister.

    Labour meanwhile... ?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,272
    MikeL said:

    George Freeman saying Penny may well have got 100.

    If she had a 100 she would have waited and got the result then pulled out . Getting that many would guarantee a good job in the cabinet .
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Driver said:

    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King is out of town.
    The King being in the wrong place is something else that should have been sorted out.
    Be fair. The way we change PMs you can't expect the King to hang around just on the off chance.
    I do hope that appointing a new PM isn't something for which one needs a pen.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    148grss said:

    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter

    Come on, he was the clear second preference in that vote :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Driver said:

    biggles said:

    Can they sort it this afternoon quickly and quietly?

    The King is out of town.
    The King being in the wrong place is something else that should have been sorted out.
    Brady Old Lady couldn't organise a toga party in a curtain factory
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am so utterly delighted at Rishi winning the vote and look forward to his premiership

    Back on board, BigG? Wahey.
    I am definitely on board from today
    Never in doubt, never in doubt ...
    It was all over for me if Johnson had won it and I have made that clear for a long time

    Johnson appalled me and I was polititically homeless, but Rishi's election has changed all that
    You have said some very negative things about Sunak. What's changed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    148grss said:

    I've been away the last week, so not posted here, but how do we feel about the person who lost six weeks ago in a membership vote now being anointed as PM - will the Tory membership be happy?

    Seems lots of Johnsonite MPs are... not on board:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-will-face-ungovernable-tory-party-warns-johnson-supporter

    Membership need to get over themselves. I'm sure some dont like it but MPs know if a situation is untenable, even if they also make bad choices.
This discussion has been closed.