Categories
In an hour we’ll find out if Penny Mordaunt is the new Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
In an hour we’ll find out if Penny Mordaunt is the new Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
When I mention that the Mordaunt campaign has over 90 MPs supporting it to a Government minister walking past my table in Parliament, he guffaws with laughter and yells: "No prospect," before stalking off.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
No-one will thank you for dragging it out another week.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
They finally dethroned Goderich from the position of worst ever PM he had occupied it without realistic challenge for the previous 191 years.
Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1584518455503355904
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
Truss 2022: Batshit
Johnson: post Covid: unable to escape controversies it created
Johnson during Covid: pandemic removes all other policies
Johnson Dec 2019 - Covid: possible, though other than completing our exit of the EU did they actually do anything else?
Johnson Summer 2019 - Election: Batshit. Fired his own MPs to have a majority of -40. Geoffrey Cox roaring at the House demanding an election
May post 2017 Election: Brexit Blockade and nothing else
May 2016 - 2017: possible? Whilst she mulled over the form that Brexit would take did they actually govern?
So its more than 5 years since we had an effective government and possibly more than that. Hardly an advert for Tory government is it?
Re; the ethnicity and prime ministership, this is actually a significant moment. I don't see minority candidates becoming prime minister in most other European countries anytime soon. So although Britain has fallen socially behind from some, or many, other points of view, from this very important point of view , of inclusion and tolerance, it's still actually ahead of most of its European peers.
So.....
How would you describe Rishi Sunak in one word?
https://twitter.com/savantacomres/status/1584515625803972613?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg
Populism - what is it good for?
‘Hello sir. Can I stop you a moment? How would you describe Rishi Sunak in one word?’
‘Brian, no.’
"The UK elected 7 minority MEPs, France 6, Germany 5 and Sweden 4. Only 13 of the 28 EU Member States elected ethnic minority MEPs."
"5% (approximately 36 MEPs) of the total elected MEPs -> After Brexit, this figure will reduce to 4%.
People of colour specifically amount to only 4% (approximately 30) of the total elected MEPs -> After Brexit, reducing to 3% (24)."
Keep clutching at those straws
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
Taxes should be fair, and paid by everyone.
We can debate whether taxes need to go up or down, til the cows come home. But exempting a select portion of the population from paying taxes, while further increasing taxes on everyone else, is not legitimate.
Its also completely regressive, since those with only their wages on PAYE to support them tend to include the poorest while those who have secondary incomes or can arrange their income to be exempt from NI are not.
If you want to increase taxes, then put them up on everyone. You and I can actually agree for once. 👍
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-63285821
95.120 -18.456 (-16.25%) 07:14 CT [ENDEX]
Please tell me Truss didn't sign any long term deals at way above market................
But it's not a great prospect if he's only just better than the last two.
If you say so. I am happy to discuss taxation policies and strategies, but your starting position is a little way outside of sanity. As the Truss sensation demonstrated to such a huge cost to the country.
But... if Blackman has "independently verified" the paperwork and has said that Boris was, in fact, "above the threshold required"...
He wouldn't, would he? Bluff. Double Bluff.
Johnson exits stage right,
telling the truth!!!!
Didn’t see that one coming!
As much as the Irish might hate to admit it, they're also influenced by the anglophone multiculturalism originating actually in Canada, like Britain and the US.
"BREAKING: All of Boris Johnson’s 102 supporters have now declared support for Penny Mordaunt - Which means she now has 47 supporters.
"
https://twitter.com/GregScottTV/status/1584424943307014146?s=20&t=VjqgxEIqnt_FvRFe_H8opQ
Which was why I thought the lay very safe. His path was rocky even if he'd scraped the 100.
For me, I was loosely in the "accidental lab leak" as being at least as plausible as zoonosis camp. Yes, all the millions of previous viruses came from zoonosis, but the presence of a research centre close by did make me decide that it's got to be as plausible as the normal method.
However, it does look to me more like you have to go through more and more unlikely hoops to support the lab leak hypothesis now.
- Tracing the outbreak back to the wet market and to one area in the wet market: that looked a good piece of work - but left the question of where it came from "upstream."
But given that they also examined loads of more likely superspreading sites (shopping malls, public transport hubs, leisure facilities, etc), and found that none of them (including about 50 sites where superspreading opportunities would be more likely) did make it a bit less plausible that someone would go from the lab, straight to the market and only the market, infect someone there, and then go nowhere else. While the upstream route to the wetmarket was the plausible standard route of bringing in an infected animal.
But still very circumstantial. Might be unlikely someone would do that, but unlikely things happen.
The thing that made me go, "Oh, I guess not," was that there were two lineages (A and B ) which spread out from the wet-market at different times. Two weeks apart.
(B has outcompeted A; all our current variants are B-descended).
And it wouldn't be the same person, because they'd have been infected the first time and probably not in good state to do the same thing all over again.
So we need two people, doing exactly the same thing two weeks apart, carelessly getting infected with different strains of the same virus, going directly to the wet market and only the wet market, managing to infect people there in a superspreader event on two separate occasions. That "unlikely" is now squared.
Whereas bringing in a bunch of live animals from the same source to the same point in the market that sells those animals and having them there for a prolonged time (increasing infection chance and superspreading chance) looks a huge lot more plausible now.
If he was in the final two, he wins. Everyone knew that. Had it been announced it was Rishi and Boris, I'd have expected Rishi to withdraw.
Unless its a cold hard cash offer. Rishi simply bribed him with money? (Johnson probably needs it)
Is that good, or bad ?
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1584456533986811909?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg
72% of the Scottish public support joining the EU.
Labour, not good enough for Scotland.
https://twitter.com/frcola1/status/1584466979741585410?s=46&t=bcM6O2lsVIeDod02qK3vqg
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
Still... It's very good news, because every day Europe is not drawing down stored gas gets us closer to surviving this winter.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I can answer your question Roger, through explaining what has made Sunak Primeminister.
Alternatives, such as Boris 2.0 makes Ready 4 Rishi seem more appetising than it really is. Sunak has won despite being an abysmal campaigner who literally cannot understand what voters want, he does not moderate his pitch from "I know what's best for you, so I don't need to listen" this proved as fact watching Team Truss running rings around Rishi all summer.
Most of all he won by riding a wave of kudos and credibility right now, from saying to Truss if you win and attempt your economic policies, you will break the economy. So everyone from MPs down through party members down to ordinary voters have it in mind Rishi is the right man for the moment, to tackle the economic crisis.
But here’s the kicker, Sunak’s wave of fiscal credibility is fake. Liz and Kwarzi did not break the economy, Sunak handed it to them broken.
From 2010 to 2019 UK borrowed about £750 billion of which half was created by the Bank of England through QE. Since 2001 UK has borrowed £1.4 trillion. Rishi then borrowed further £375 billion throwing money at Covid in a pandemic fighting splurge as though ‘austerity’ is a ‘political choice’. Pointless money-pits like Eat Out to Help Out only served to show that the government treated borrowed cash like confetti. Sunak sprayed a further £30bn of confetti to gangsters and fraudsters.
Sunak’s dangerous economic thinking is because Sunakonomics is all part of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and money printing creating inflation, this inflation was first mainly in the housing market and stock exchange, but January 2022, a month before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation was running at 5.5 per cent in the UK, 5.1 per cent in the EU and 7.5 per cent in the USA. When Liz Truss told Rishi control over interest rates must be taken from the BoE, Liz Truss was right. The current economic orthodoxy has failed us - an insane housing market, negative real interest rates, double digit inflation, taxes at a 70 year high, exponential spending on the worst health service in Europe, £2.4 trillion of debt and lower wages than we had in 2008. The country needs the change to the liberal economics Truss espoused - BoE and Rishi Sunak will not run the liberal economic policy the country needs.
So I am saying all the MPs and voters are wrong to be so ready for Rishi? Yep. My argument is going back to Rishi’s economics is just plain wrong, stupid and dangerous - it’s a doom loop, low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer, so inflation persists.
Though he does seem to have a slight problem with numbers (Wikipedia):
In 2015, the compliance officer for the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) made a judgement that Blackman had submitted 732 inaccurate mileage claims...
So Boris had over 100 is my take.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
Suggests to me she does, or is very close.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/american-test-scores-schools-00063067
...Statistics released Monday defy easy explanations and standard political partisanship. Declines afflicted states and major cities whether they were led by Republicans who pushed to quickly reopen schools amid the pandemic or Democrats who urged a more cautious return to normal classes. Federal testing officials insist the results reveal no singular correlation between scores and remote or in-person learning....
Sunak also had to deal with the pandemic. He did well but it is hardly surprising that the cost of those programs meant that taxes had to edge higher, if only to pay the interest on the additional borrowing. He was also taking instructions from the man next door who was far more populist in his spending habits.
Now he is the man next door and he might just want to temper Hunt's austerity tendencies just a little. We shall see.
If Sunak has any sense, he (or his chancellor) would announce that NI (both employers and employees) will fall by 0.5% a year until they hit zero and are abolished, and income tax would go up by 1% PA to match. It would be a win in so many ways - tax simplification, increased fairness, a small net increase in tax take, but done smoothly enough that things adjust without creating lots of instant winners and loosers. Doing this gradually would fix the issue where the money save from abolishing employers NI might not be immediately passed onto pay rates by employers - over time the labour market will fix it naturally.
As a pro-growth bonus, having started on this road, they could then kill IR35 stone dead as it will only be worth having a PSC if you actually need one, given it will no longer allow you to dodge NI.
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
It was obvious by his resignation speech he didn't want to leave.
He was then on a long extended holiday (surprise surprise) he suddenly cut short to come back to the UK, texting all and sundry he was going to 'do it'.
He has Mogg out on the Sunday programmes claiming he's going to run, and spends Saturday and Sunday constantly leaking that he's got his 100 supporters.
He GETS a lot of support from MPs, no doubt about that. Must be 50-70.
He's probably had loads of emails from members asking him to stand, and privately knows that he would win the membership in a landslide.
He wants to be Prime Minister again, like his hero Churchill who did the same. Coming in and saving the day would be an excellent narrative in his book (things like having to assemble a cabinet and having to do work can be ignored.... again).
If he had got 100, he'd have stood and run, and nothing could've persuaded him otherwise.
So I call bullshit on Bob Blackman or anyone else who claims he got over 100. He clearly didn't.