Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
These are the city rumours - income tax up by 1p in all brackets (taking the top rate to 48p for a working person 😱) and potentially a showdown over NI on pension age people and income.
The top rate is 70p depending upon how you calculate it.
A showdown on pension age is a start, but it shouldn't just be earned income past pension age which is liable for tax.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
These are the city rumours - income tax up by 1p in all brackets (taking the top rate to 48p for a working person 😱) and potentially a showdown over NI on pension age people and income.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though. It was value.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
Interesting (and very bad) test data from US schools.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/american-test-scores-schools-00063067 ...Statistics released Monday defy easy explanations and standard political partisanship. Declines afflicted states and major cities whether they were led by Republicans who pushed to quickly reopen schools amid the pandemic or Democrats who urged a more cautious return to normal classes. Federal testing officials insist the results reveal no singular correlation between scores and remote or in-person learning....
You're right. It's not great.
One thing though - check out the last line. This will be blamed on the pandemic even though it probably only accelerated an existing trend.
You could make the same comment here. Almost all the issues now coming out of the woodwork - the mismanagement of the DfE, the excessive workload for staff, the poor quality of building stock, the inadequate systems of assessment the Luddite-like refusal to engage properly with technology and the cronyism that leads to imbeciles like Spielman holding senior posts and sodding everything up - were there long in advance of COVID.
If it’s true and The Oaf had over 100, then I could see Penny making it. But she’ll gain nothing but more chaos if she forces it to a members vote. We would have to hope that this is all what we assumed, leverage for a senior post.
There is a trivial claim that Sunak will be Britain's first teetotal PM – yet wasn't/isn't May also teetotal? I seem to remember someone saying she was...?
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
You are a purveyor of the politics of envy. You are no better than Jeremy Corbyn. As I have said to you before, if you spent a little more time working, and a little less time writing politically and economically incoherent bollox on here, then maybe you could afford a few more of the things you are so jealous of other people for having.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
These are the city rumours - income tax up by 1p in all brackets (taking the top rate to 48p for a working person 😱) and potentially a showdown over NI on pension age people and income.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?
Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
The media aren’t even bothering to mention the shocker that the oaf might have told the truth ! Because then it highlights the fact that everyone thinks he’s a liar . Nothing can convince me unless I see the nominations myself !
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
These are the city rumours - income tax up by 1p in all brackets (taking the top rate to 48p for a working person 😱) and potentially a showdown over NI on pension age people and income.
The top rate is 70p depending upon how you calculate it.
A showdown on pension age is a start, but it shouldn't just be earned income past pension age which is liable for tax.
I think it's NI on pension income as well, at least the way it was worded.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
There is a trivial claim that Sunak will be Britain's first teetotal PM – yet wasn't/isn't May also teetotal? I seem to remember someone saying she was...?
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
No it would not, BRs comments are correct, if you eliminated NI including employers NI then, then all workers who's employers are paying employers NI would get a proportional Pay rise, and then the same amount would leave there pay packet as Income tax. i.e. no net change in the marginal rate.
Lots of people will get a shock at how much the government really takes form them, and that would be a good thing as in would increases the incentives to keep government spending in check.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?
Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
That you'd even suggest it says to me you have zero comprehension about (or maybe empathy for) how tight budgets are for the large section of the population that work and pay ICT at 20%.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, taking each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
I've just posted a massively contrary view, but this is a good post and deserves a like. I just can't believe that Johnson WOULD think politically however...... Maybe I need a lie (ha) down. The idea that Johnson would tell the truth is incredible. I'm reminded of Harry Truman's comments about Richard Nixon....
["Richard Nixon is a no-good, lying bastard, he can lie out of both sides of his mouth at the same time, and even if he caught himself telling the truth, he'd lie just to keep his hand in."]
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though. It was value.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
Well, I didn't believe him, based on past experience.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
Go on, under what circumstance should NI be raised, given that there'll always be to option to raise income tax to achieve broadly the same effect in a fairer way?
If Sunak has any sense, he (or his chancellor) would announce that NI (both employers and employees) will fall by 0.5% a year until they hit zero and are abolished, and income tax would go up by 1% PA to match. It would be a win in so many ways - tax simplification, increased fairness, a small net increase in tax take, but done smoothly enough that things adjust without creating lots of instant winners and loosers. Doing this gradually would fix the issue where the money save from abolishing employers NI might not be immediately passed onto pay rates by employers - over time the labour market will fix it naturally.
As a pro-growth bonus, having started on this road, they could then kill IR35 stone dead as it will only be worth having a PSC if you actually need one, given it will no longer allow you to dodge NI.
That is too sensible to be taken up by the swivel eyed loonies on here
No, I think most PBers actually concur with this. Merging the two is always commented favourably on here, and this looks like a smooth way of doing it.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?
Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
What makes the income of old graduates "unearned?"
You are living proof that the politics of envy is a thing.
To be honest, Steve Baker interests me, for two reasons, he interviews so well, quite a brilliant communicator. But he also knows his mind - he describes himself as Free Market Left, and if he wishes to expand on what that means anytime I would be keen to listen.
Compare and contrast Steve Baker so strong on media rounds this weekend with Penny Mourdant’s latest car crash interview. I am saying the differential between them is Steve Baker knows his mind, to answer questions he goes straight to that, out comes confident clear answers, Mourdant turns to a lot of empty space where there are no answers.
I’m not making an ideological point, the point I am making is politics works best, and more honestly, when politicians and parties have a clear ethos, and they just want to honestly talk about it and explain it.
Yes, this is why Corbyn did better than expected in 2017. The problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. Their thoughts are clear and easy to express because they can't engage with the complexity of the real world. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp. Johnson is nuts too of course, in a different way. He deals with the complexity of the world by believing in nothing except his own advancement, and simply tells people what they want to hear. This turns out to be a surprisingly successful strategy in the right hands. I suspect Sunak is not nuts but will struggle to get a hearing from the electorate. The Tories will get a bounce because he is an improvement on Truss. But I think they'd be better off choosing Johnson again. They're screwed whatever, anyway.
“problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.”
Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.
A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?
I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.
Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round? I heard a program the other night which said Norway in the 60's was one of the poorest countries in the World. Now it's the richest. Their population is the same as Scotland. No jiggery pokery with rich peoples tax rates. If there are simplistic answers I'd advise Scotland to follow Norway and start a rapid hunt for more oil and then get out of this stifling Union,
“What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round?”
I can answer your question Roger, through explaining what has made Sunak Primeminister.
Alternatives, such as Boris 2.0 makes Ready 4 Rishi seem more appetising than it really is. Sunak has won despite being an abysmal campaigner who literally cannot understand what voters want, he does not moderate his pitch from "I know what's best for you, so I don't need to listen" this proved as fact watching Team Truss running rings around Rishi all summer. Most of all he won by riding a wave of kudos and credibility right now, from saying to Truss if you win and attempt your economic policies, you will break the economy. So everyone from MPs down through party members down to ordinary voters have it in mind Rishi is the right man for the moment, to tackle the economic crisis.
But here’s the kicker, Sunak’s wave of fiscal credibility is fake. Liz and Kwarzi did not break the economy, Sunak handed it to them broken.
From 2010 to 2019 UK borrowed about £750 billion of which half was created by the Bank of England through QE. Since 2001 UK has borrowed £1.4 trillion. Rishi then borrowed further £375 billion throwing money at Covid in a pandemic fighting splurge as though ‘austerity’ is a ‘political choice’. Pointless money-pits like Eat Out to Help Out only served to show that the government treated borrowed cash like confetti. Sunak sprayed a further £30bn of confetti to gangsters and fraudsters.
Sunak’s dangerous economic thinking is because Sunakonomics is all part of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and money printing creating inflation, this inflation was first mainly in the housing market and stock exchange, but January 2022, a month before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation was running at 5.5 per cent in the UK, 5.1 per cent in the EU and 7.5 per cent in the USA. When Liz Truss told Rishi control over interest rates must be taken from the BoE, Liz Truss was right. The current economic orthodoxy has failed us - an insane housing market, negative real interest rates, double digit inflation, taxes at a 70 year high, exponential spending on the worst health service in Europe, £2.4 trillion of debt and lower wages than we had in 2008. The country needs the change to the liberal economics Truss espoused - BoE and Rishi Sunak will not run the liberal economic policy the country needs.
So I am saying all the MPs and voters are wrong to be so ready for Rishi? Yep. My argument is going back to Rishi’s economics is just plain wrong, stupid and dangerous - it’s a doom loop, low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer, so inflation persists.
Interesting. Are you an economist? Sadly I'm not. I'm almost certain Rishi will make a better fist of it than Truss. The proof is staring us in the face. She almost broke the bank. Rishi was pro Brexit which suggests to me he is a philistine and probably only interested getting rich which as it's turned out he got quite wrong. Brexit turns out to have been financially ruinous as well as culturally.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
I'm OK with that.
If you want to increase taxes, then put them up on everyone. You and I can actually agree for once. 👍
Yes, there's no justification for having NI *full stop*, never mind raising the bloody thing. It's a ludicrous tax that should have been rolled into income tax and applied to all long ago.
I think you'll find lots of support from across the PB spectrum for that particular viewpoint Bart.
The media aren’t even bothering to mention the shocker that the oaf might have told the truth ! Because then it highlights the fact that everyone thinks he’s a liar . Nothing can convince me unless I see the nominations myself !
Joris Bohnson Boris Johnson Zippy Bungle George Jacob Rees-Mogg Nadine Dorries......
There is a trivial claim that Sunak will be Britain's first teetotal PM – yet wasn't/isn't May also teetotal? I seem to remember someone saying she was...?
I'm fairly sure David Lloyd George was teetotal.
And Bonar Law. We had this conversation earlier. The claim's a nonsense.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
I wonder if Sunak will dare to troll Labour by pulling out that old John Major poster?
'What do the Tories offer the son of Hindu immigrants from Tanzania?
They made him Prime Minister.'
John Major was more of a pulled-himself-up-by-his-bootstraps type though, so it wouldn't work quite as well for someone who went to Winchester College. They should let Sunak's election as PM speak for itself.
The media aren’t even bothering to mention the shocker that the oaf might have told the truth ! Because then it highlights the fact that everyone thinks he’s a liar . Nothing can convince me unless I see the nominations myself !
I think I was the only person on here who believed him about getting 100 nominations. For some reason it just sounded right to me. Those anonymous names on Guido's spreadsheet seemed like they could be true.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
I'm OK with that.
If you want to increase taxes, then put them up on everyone. You and I can actually agree for once. 👍
Yes, there's no justification for having NI *full stop*, never mind raising the bloody thing. It's a ludicrous tax that should have been rolled into income tax and applied to all long ago.
I think you'll find lots of support from across the PB spectrum for that particular viewpoint Bart.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though. It was value.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
Well, I didn't believe him, based on past experience.
Seems I was wrong. It happens.
Especially when I'm commenting on cricket.
Your cricket comments are invaluable. I've done pretty well betting on the opposite outcome of the one you predict. Keep them coming.
I'm not sure of the relevance of a tweet from 2017 from the ex-leader of the Labour Party. Am I missing something?
I think there was some discussion about leftist white people thinking that people of colour shouldn't be successful/rich etc. with particular reference to Rishi Sunak, whom it was suggested by some tosser at The Mirror was not a role model for people of colour.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
Top marginal rate is 62p at the moment, I think the top marginal withdrawal rate is 67p for people on UC.
So that's for people who face withdrawal of benefit. I get that but not really a top rate of tax. Obviously you have the 100k-125k position which affects a few people but people earnings millions are not paying 62% or 67% tax.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
No it would not, BRs comments are correct, if you eliminated NI including employers NI then, then all workers who's employers are paying employers NI would get a proportional Pay rise, and then the same amount would leave there pay packet as Income tax. i.e. no net change in the marginal rate.
Lots of people will get a shock at how much the government really takes form them, and that would be a good thing as in would increases the incentives to keep government spending in check.
"...if you eliminated NI including employers NI then, then all workers who's employers are paying employers NI would get a proportional Pay rise
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
Go on, under what circumstance should NI be raised, given that there'll always be to option to raise income tax to achieve broadly the same effect in a fairer way?
If Sunak has any sense, he (or his chancellor) would announce that NI (both employers and employees) will fall by 0.5% a year until they hit zero and are abolished, and income tax would go up by 1% PA to match. It would be a win in so many ways - tax simplification, increased fairness, a small net increase in tax take, but done smoothly enough that things adjust without creating lots of instant winners and loosers. Doing this gradually would fix the issue where the money save from abolishing employers NI might not be immediately passed onto pay rates by employers - over time the labour market will fix it naturally.
As a pro-growth bonus, having started on this road, they could then kill IR35 stone dead as it will only be worth having a PSC if you actually need one, given it will no longer allow you to dodge NI.
I wonder if Sunak will dare to troll Labour by pulling out that old John Major poster?
'What do the Tories offer the son of Hindu immigrants from Tanzania?
They made him Prime Minister.'
John Major was more of a pulled-himself-up-by-his-bootstraps type though, so it wouldn't work quite as well for someone who went to Winchester College. They should let Sunak's election as PM speak for itself.
It wouldn't work exactly perfectly for somebody who married a billionaire.
But it would still be top trolling and quite funny.
You had David and Ed Miliband as FS and LotO. And David Lammy is the current shadow FS.
But even if we take in great offices of state, for whatever reasons Labour still has a very strong tendency to white Christian heritage men.
Which is doubly surprising given I believe the PLP is far more diverse than the PCP.
There is a trivial claim that Sunak will be Britain's first teetotal PM – yet wasn't/isn't May also teetotal? I seem to remember someone saying she was...?
I'm fairly sure David Lloyd George was teetotal.
And Bonar Law. We had this conversation earlier. The claim's a nonsense.
Apologies - I can't remember that conversation as I was very, very drunk. Or possibly missed it due to being at work. Or both.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
I'm OK with that.
If you want to increase taxes, then put them up on everyone. You and I can actually agree for once. 👍
Yes, there's no justification for having NI *full stop*, never mind raising the bloody thing. It's a ludicrous tax that should have been rolled into income tax and applied to all long ago.
I think you'll find lots of support from across the PB spectrum for that particular viewpoint Bart.
Yes, NI is a completely stupid tax.
The main 'advantage' to it is that it confuses the average voter. You pay income tax at 20%. That doesn't sound much really.
Telling them its really 32%, and in fact, their employer would pay them 13.8% more anyway but have to hand that over to the government, so its really like 43%, doesn't sound as nice.
Having 50 taxes at 1% each is 'better' than 1 tax at 50%.
Nigel Adams: Bob Blackman MP, Joint Secretary of the 1922 Committee…has independently verified the nomination paperwork and confirmed to me that Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP was above the threshold required to stand for the Conservative Party leadership in this leadership election.”
Statement adds: “Therefore Mr Johnson could have proceeded to the ballot had he chosen to do so”.
That Boris Johnson should ever tell the truth is scarcely credible.
It's as though @bigjohnowls had said something positive about Starmer.
I said when he pulled out, that I believe him when he said he had 100.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though. It was value.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
Well, I didn't believe him, based on past experience.
Seems I was wrong. It happens.
Especially when I'm commenting on cricket.
Your cricket comments are invaluable. I've done pretty well betting on the opposite outcome of the one you predict. Keep them coming.
Will do. The small favour in return is you tell those who off topic me to Arkell v Pressdram.
Interesting (and very bad) test data from US schools.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/american-test-scores-schools-00063067 ...Statistics released Monday defy easy explanations and standard political partisanship. Declines afflicted states and major cities whether they were led by Republicans who pushed to quickly reopen schools amid the pandemic or Democrats who urged a more cautious return to normal classes. Federal testing officials insist the results reveal no singular correlation between scores and remote or in-person learning....
You're right. It's not great.
One thing though - check out the last line. This will be blamed on the pandemic even though it probably only accelerated an existing trend.
You could make the same comment here. Almost all the issues now coming out of the woodwork - the mismanagement of the DfE, the excessive workload for staff, the poor quality of building stock, the inadequate systems of assessment the Luddite-like refusal to engage properly with technology and the cronyism that leads to imbeciles like Spielman holding senior posts and sodding everything up - were there long in advance of COVID.
Confounding factors always make drawing consensus opinions hard. But I agree with you.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Small but important edit required. I'll do it.
Hopefully he's learnt that when there's a need for extra funding for the NHS and Social Care increasing National Insurance instead of Income Tax was a mistake and he won't do that again.
I'm OK with that.
If you want to increase taxes, then put them up on everyone. You and I can actually agree for once. 👍
Yes, there's no justification for having NI *full stop*, never mind raising the bloody thing. It's a ludicrous tax that should have been rolled into income tax and applied to all long ago.
I think you'll find lots of support from across the PB spectrum for that particular viewpoint Bart.
Yes, NI is a completely stupid tax.
The main 'advantage' to it is that it confuses the average voter. You pay income tax at 20%. That doesn't sound much really.
Telling them its really 32%, and in fact, their employer would pay them 13.8% more anyway but have to hand that over to the government, so its really like 43%, doesn't sound as nice.
Having 50 taxes at 1% each is 'better' than 1 tax at 50%.
Were you involved in dreaming up the adult social care precept for council tax bills ?
I would like to announce that I too am "withdrawing" from the Conservative party leadership contest, and give my blessing to Mr Sunak to become the next Prime Minister.
Just under an hour to go until Sunak gets it by coronation.
Gutted to miss out on the £5000, but will take that as a moral, Pyrrhic victory.
Hopefully Sunak has learned that increasing National Insurance was a mistake and won't do that again.
Hopefully Sunak takes a balanced overview and doesn't listen to obsessive lobbyists.
Everything needs to go up. Sadly.
If everything needs to go up, then start with Income Tax, which is paid by everyone, rather than NI which is only paid by those who work.
There is no justification slashing Income Tax by 4p, while increasing NI, is there?
No there isn't. Either extend NI to all earned income, or increase Income Tax by N+4p and reduce NI by Np in the pound - where N is about 13.25 ;-)
Good start.
We could go further. Increase Income Tax by 9 above that and abolish 'student loan repayments'.
Everyone should pay the same rate of income tax. If you think that rate is too high for you, its too high for anyone else too.
It's funny how far apart we on most things but agree on that. Also, I believe, on the need to move away from taxing income towards taxing wealth.
I don't agree with taxing wealth, but do agree with taxing land, which amounts to much the same thing.
If I were in charge I'd start by increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI and Student Loans. Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with an annual Land Tax.
If there's a budget surplus, then we can start reducing income tax, for everyone uniformly.
"... increasing income tax by 22.25% and abolishing NI..."
That would be catastrophic of course. Truss levels of chaos.
You'd need to be careful increasing the tax on the 20% + 13.25% NI taxpayers. Your proposal would reduce the net income of that group by 15% at a stroke.
Not if they're young graduates. It wouldn't be a change at all if they're graduates, it would just bring everyone else up to the same level they're expected to pay. And if its good enough for them, why's it not for everyone else?
Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
That you'd even suggest it says to me you have zero comprehension about (or maybe empathy for) how tight budgets are for the large section of the population that work and pay ICT at 20%.
Quite the opposite, I have empathy for how tight budgets are for the large section of the population that work and pay ICT at 20 + NI at 13.25 + Graduate Tax at 9.
That you don't, and think others on the exact same income ought to be able to evade the 13.25 + 9 while others on the exact same income are liable to pay it, speaks wonders.
Do you think young graduates, quite possibly paying rent and bringing up kids, that pay 20 + 13.25 + 9 are on less of a tight budget than those on the same income who only pay 20?
Comments
A showdown on pension age is a start, but it shouldn't just be earned income past pension age which is liable for tax.
He concluded he couldn’t govern.
This was the entire logic behind my large betting position at ~200/1 on Starmer for PM.
Osborne put it very clearly, yesterday. Few paid attention. Others has been pointing this out ever since the rumours of his return, began. I expected Boris and his backers would rationalise that problem away and go for it anyway, hoping to take each day/vote one at a time.
On that, I was wrong and I lost money. I don’t regret the bet, though. It was value.
While Boris has proved himself to be a massive liar in the past, all the bullshit is for public consumption. He remains a rational political actor - and was making a rational political decision.
Is that too hard to believe?
One thing though - check out the last line. This will be blamed on the pandemic even though it probably only accelerated an existing trend.
You could make the same comment here. Almost all the issues now coming out of the woodwork - the mismanagement of the DfE, the excessive workload for staff, the poor quality of building stock, the inadequate systems of assessment the Luddite-like refusal to engage properly with technology and the cronyism that leads to imbeciles like Spielman holding senior posts and sodding everything up - were there long in advance of COVID.
Of course it wouldn't need to go up that high if tax were fairly paid by everyone, so by expecting everyone to pay their own share we'd have a lower tax rate for those currently getting shafted (eg young graduates) while those currently dodging tax (eg old graduates with a wealth of unearned income by now) pay their fair share.
Was 36 about 30 mins ago.
Totals now 202-30.
'What do the Tories offer the son of Hindu immigrants from Tanzania?
They made him Prime Minister.'
Lots of people will get a shock at how much the government really takes form them, and that would be a good thing as in would increases the incentives to keep government spending in check.
When the nominations are finally announced.
125 Sunak
25 Mordant
12 Johnson
190 candidate X.
Candidate X being someone completely unexpected.
I just can't believe that Johnson WOULD think politically however......
Maybe I need a lie (ha) down. The idea that Johnson would tell the truth is incredible. I'm reminded of Harry Truman's comments about Richard Nixon....
["Richard Nixon is a no-good, lying bastard, he can lie out of both sides of his mouth at the same time, and even if he caught himself telling the truth, he'd lie just to keep his hand in."]
Seems I was wrong. It happens.
Especially when I'm commenting on cricket.
You are living proof that the politics of envy is a thing.
I think you'll find lots of support from across the PB spectrum for that particular viewpoint Bart.
Boris Johnson
Zippy
Bungle
George
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Nadine Dorries......
ETA: Of course, bad trading if she ends up winning
Naive.
But it would still be top trolling and quite funny.
You had David and Ed Miliband as FS and LotO. And David Lammy is the current shadow FS.
But even if we take in great offices of state, for whatever reasons Labour still has a very strong tendency to white Christian heritage men.
Which is doubly surprising given I believe the PLP is far more diverse than the PCP.
You pay income tax at 20%. That doesn't sound much really.
Telling them its really 32%, and in fact, their employer would pay them 13.8% more anyway but have to hand that over to the government, so its really like 43%, doesn't sound as nice.
Having 50 taxes at 1% each is 'better' than 1 tax at 50%.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1584529491799728129
More: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/rishi-sunak-pm-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-rac
Sunak coronated nem con.
Well, he's not Disraeli, but after the last four years he's a relief.
But I agree with you.
Supposedly Mordaunt had the numbers but now has dropped out of the race.
Expectation management not a thing in the Tory party...
That you don't, and think others on the exact same income ought to be able to evade the 13.25 + 9 while others on the exact same income are liable to pay it, speaks wonders.
Do you think young graduates, quite possibly paying rent and bringing up kids, that pay 20 + 13.25 + 9 are on less of a tight budget than those on the same income who only pay 20?