Not convinced. 10% is a non-trivial proportion of the public even allowing for a misunderestimating of the question.
Sure 10% or whatever the true percentage is is too much, but plenty of surveys have shown that the UK is one of the countries with the lowest levels of racism and anti-immigrant sentiment. Is there still racism in the UK? Of course, and sexism, homophobia, misogyny, sectarianism and dozens of other prejudices, but in almost every area things are far better than they used to be even a few decades ago.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
David Buik @truemagic68 · 1h The UK Gilt market has responded positively early doors to the prospect of a Sunak administration. Yields have fallen accordingly - 2-year from 3.70% to 3.50%, 7-year from 4.18% to 3.93%, 10-year from 4.05% to 3.82%
"Half of all primary schools in England are trying to feed children in poverty who are ineligible for free school meals because their parents’ income does not meet the threshold. But there are 800,000 of them. It can be hard sometimes to grasp the scale of the problem through bare statistics, but vivid and haunting details can flesh them out. Children are eating school rubbers to line their stomachs and dull the ache and nausea of hunger. Others are bringing in empty lunchboxes then pretending to dine on their phantom food away from classmates, too ashamed to reveal that they have nothing to eat."
So, basically, if you are on any form of benefit, including in work benefits, you qualify. As these people clearly have at least 1 child they will qualify for those unless their income is quite considerable (the taper will not affect eligibility to FSM).
What I would accept is that there are dysfunctional families who do not prioritise feeding their kids over other wants but 800k? Nah.
The key there is "may" qualify.. If you are in work on UC you need to be on less than £7.4k pa.
Edit. Barty in there first.
Yes, I accept that point but if you earn more than £7.4k with a dependent child you will either get WTC or CTC which also qualify you unless your income is more than £16,190. Now, I would accept that is still not a lot of money and I wouldn't want to live on it but it shouldn't necessitate an empty lunch box for your child.
Ps. this conversation rather shows that the "simplification" of our benefit system through UC has not been an unqualified success.
I find it hard to believe that many people would allow their kids to go hungry if they had any option. There will be some, but it won't be the majority.
Completely agree. Which is why I really don't believe the 800k figure in the first place. But, as often happens when I wander into areas I don't know enough about, the benefits system is both more complicated and harsher than I had appreciated.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 1h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
I think that point would be stronger if we hasn't had nearly the same vote with the exact electorate 8 odd weeks ago which got it completely wrong.
I don't think anyone believes Boris actually had 102? Penny isn't mad or anything and fewer MPs hold grudges against her than against Sunak. If the members vote for her, there's no reason why MPs shouldn't get behind her like they would with any normal leader.
If you're an ambitious politician, and you can get the nominations, and you have a decent chance with the members, obviously you give it a go. Britain can survive another week without a Prime Minister, and watching the Tory membership try to do an online vote will be funny.
Presumably also you have a better negotiating position with Sunak for a good cabinet position if you demonstrably hit the 100 mark? If you can't even hit that he doesn't have to care much about you at all. You could for instance wait for the results of the indicative vote and then when it comes out 250-100 against make a more plausible "good of the party" concession speech than Boris's.
That's also true. But if she gets the nominations, what do we reckon her odds are with the membership? 50/50? Definitely better than 25%.
If she was a highly promising rising star then it might make sense to take the bird in the hand and cut a deal, but she's not exactly that; She's a basically competent politician who for slightly random reasons suddenly has a decent shot at the top job.
You have all been warned. Bet on 2023 accordingly.
I want to hear from Zahawi first. I reckon he's stolen Leon's negative oracular skills.
"stolen" in the sense of copied, rather than removed!
It's rumoured the mystic mantle can sit on only one set of shoulders at a time.
Here’s what I said two days ago
“Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose”
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
I find the idea of a lack of mandate rather odd. When events happen during governments, do they need to seek a mandate to take action? See 9/11, covid, Falklands war etc. financial crash etc. A government relies on passing laws in parliament. If a leader can do that, they can govern. Some rather stupid calls a week or too back for the King to summon Starmer to form a government - plainly ridiculous as he was nowhere near a majority.
It's total nonsense. The only thing you can really complain about is when a government chooses to do the opposite of what's in their manifesto, and even then circumstances like you mention might necessitate change. There's only one real mandate, the support of the majority of the House of Commons be that as a government as a whole, or with confidence support from an opposition party.
A change of leadership should not trigger a GE. But the lack of a mandate was a big problem for Truss as she somehow convinced herself she could change the direction of the government, based on a 'mandate' from the leadership election.
Theo Usherwood @theousherwood · 48s Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
You have all been warned. Bet on 2023 accordingly.
I want to hear from Zahawi first. I reckon he's stolen Leon's negative oracular skills.
"stolen" in the sense of copied, rather than removed!
It's rumoured the mystic mantle can sit on only one set of shoulders at a time.
Here’s what I said two days ago
“Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose”
There, you see. The momentary Chancellor has lifted your curse.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
Although of course, it had been known for a very considerable time that Gordon Brown was the heir presumptive.
It was known for a very considerable time that RIshi Sunak was the heir presumptive.
To those who got on him at 250/1.
Then that pesky Liz had to spoil it all. Briefly, but long enough.
10% negative is a drop on your foot proportion of people. One in ten. Look around you everywhere you go/walk/play and one in ten of them dislikes an Asian as PM because they are Asian. A cricket/football/rugby team = at least one member. Your office of 200 people? 20 of them.
Maybe I'm having a glass half empty Monday morning but I find that quite depressing.
You need to compare it to other countries. This is probably the lowest figure you'd find anywhere. Sweden? 20% just voted for the Sweden Democrats.
Note too the UK will now be only the second G7 nation to have had a head of government from an ethnic minority, after the US which elected Obama in 2008 of course
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
How is Rishi avoiding a leadership vote is if his mps overwhelming vote for him
I have just noticed Patel is now endorsing Rishi, yet another Boris supporter moving to him
Sky reporting from the City saying the bond markets have reacted favourably and are now at pre mini budget rates
This is good news no matter your politics
Do you have a link for that Sky report? FT showing GGilt yields at 4.05%, down a bit from the 4.5% peak after the mini-budget but still well above the sub-3% before Truss was elected.
Theo Usherwood @theousherwood · 48s Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
Theo Usherwood @theousherwood · 48s Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
Sunak camp sounding entitled. Not a great look.
Isn't it pretty well part of the job description for a Tory leader ?
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 1h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Gas futures are currently 330p/therm which, whilst less than half the peak, is pretty high and means that the government subsidy scheme will be very expensive. We need it down to nearer 200p/therm.
Not convinced. 10% is a non-trivial proportion of the public even allowing for a misunderestimating of the question.
Sure 10% or whatever the true percentage is is too much, but plenty of surveys have shown that the UK is one of the countries with the lowest levels of racism and anti-immigrant sentiment. Is there still racism in the UK? Of course, and sexism, homophobia, misogyny, sectarianism and dozens of other prejudices, but in almost every area things are far better than they used to be even a few decades ago.
Brexit was an abberation then?
I can't really be bothered arguing with someone like you.
You can feel Labour searching for the right attack lines on Sunak this morning, can't you?
They are worried.
I think for many of us we are suffering a little from euphoria that big dog has gone off with his tail between his legs.
Although polls will improve significantly that will be largely down to the fact that the recent 14% and 19% Tory figures were never going to last to a GE. Beyond that it is nowhere near plain sailing for Sunak or the Tories.
Before I would consider a switch I would want to see evidence that the interests of the country are being put first. I want to see cabinet members chosen on merit not because they appease some loony section of the party and membership.
If all we get for the next 2 years is more self-indulgent Tory infighting and incompetent ministers put in place to keep the ERG and members happy then Sunak deserves to lose.
We will know which route he has taken by this time next week but given the noises coming from the likes of Dories and Chope this morning I don't think Labour has too much to worry about for the time being. The Tories look incapable of uniting.
Of course Sunak's camp feel entitled. It's a three horse race. One horse has died. Another appears to be stuck in a traffic jam. Leaving the Sunak horse the only one competing (or, more accurately, completing a victory lap).
Penny Mordaunt’s campaign briefing that she’s “getting” the numbers to make the threshold. Just under four hours until we find out whether she has “got” them.
I find the idea of a lack of mandate rather odd. When events happen during governments, do they need to seek a mandate to take action? See 9/11, covid, Falklands war etc. financial crash etc. A government relies on passing laws in parliament. If a leader can do that, they can govern. Some rather stupid calls a week or too back for the King to summon Starmer to form a government - plainly ridiculous as he was nowhere near a majority.
It's total nonsense. The only thing you can really complain about is when a government chooses to do the opposite of what's in their manifesto, and even then circumstances like you mention might necessitate change. There's only one real mandate, the support of the majority of the House of Commons be that as a government as a whole, or with confidence support from an opposition party.
A change of leadership should not trigger a GE. But the lack of a mandate was a big problem for Truss as she somehow convinced herself she could change the direction of the government, based on a 'mandate' from the leadership election.
Yep. Liz’s problem was she thought she could come in and rip up the rulebook.
It is actually a very good thing in many ways that this particular tactic failed so miserably, as it may make others more cautious about diverging too much from the original mandate/manifesto.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
I have no problem with Rishi becoming PM at 2pm because that is how our constitution is supposed to work.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 1h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Gas futures are currently 330p/therm which, whilst less than half the peak, is pretty high and means that the government subsidy scheme will be very expensive. We need it down to nearer 200p/therm.
What happened last week when the Gas future price doubled overnight?
David Buik @truemagic68 · 1h The UK Gilt market has responded positively early doors to the prospect of a Sunak administration. Yields have fallen accordingly - 2-year from 3.70% to 3.50%, 7-year from 4.18% to 3.93%, 10-year from 4.05% to 3.82%
Confirmation of my earlier comments and from a different source
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
I have no problem with Rishi becoming PM at 2pm because that is how our constitution is supposed to work.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
I don't disagree MPs should choose the PM in power, party members can still get the final say on the new leader in opposition
Re: Braverman. Doesn’t the fact that only a week ago she had to resign as Home Secretary in disgrace for breaching the ministerial code (remember that?) rather mitigate against being let back in…? Especially when Sunak has made “restoring honesty and integrity in Govt” as part of his pitch…
He can tell he'd like to reward her but what shame.
You can feel Labour searching for the right attack lines on Sunak this morning, can't you?
They are worried.
Classic CR. For what it's worth, this Labourite is not worried for Labour's prospects. In the deep abyss of last week, I came to the conclusion that the best thing for the country was the best thing for Labour. If Tories pull themselves together, it might make victory harder, but it will make it more worthwhile. Boris had to go, but Sunak was not great.
I came to the conclusion that the best leader for the Tories was Mordaunt. The last thing this country needs right now is an out of touch gazillionaire technocratic financier that caused much of the mess leading the country. I am worried in that a Sunak premiership that it will fuel right wing nuts and that will make Labour's job to pull the country together harder.
Yep. Liz’s problem was she thought she could come in and rip up the rulebook.
It is actually a very good thing in many ways that this particular tactic failed so miserably, as it may make others more cautious about diverging too much from the original mandate/manifesto.
I don't think the change of direction was the real problem per se, but the belief that you could announce big tax cuts and say "wait six weeks for the spending statement". It was absolutely bonkers, genuinely one of the stupidest things I've ever seen a British government try to do.
David Buik @truemagic68 · 1h The UK Gilt market has responded positively early doors to the prospect of a Sunak administration. Yields have fallen accordingly - 2-year from 3.70% to 3.50%, 7-year from 4.18% to 3.93%, 10-year from 4.05% to 3.82%
Confirmation of my earlier comments and from a different source
Fair enough, I think I may have been looking at an FT chart showing yesterday's close. 🤦🏻♂️
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
William Hague's change to the leadership election process has been a failure. It's better if the leader is determined by MPs, and more in keeping with parliamentary democracy.
You simply cannot govern if a leader lacks MP support, and moaning about member mandate doesn't help that. Perhaps it only goes to members if it is really close (and you reallocate third place so you get a clear view, to avoid a Truss scenario).
Good luck Rishi! UK PMIs this morning are dreadful. New orders in manufacturing at 38.6. That's deep recession levels. Services figure wasn't much better... new business fell to 45.9. This weak activity should act as a circuit-breaker for inflation & BoE tightening $GBP
I find the idea of a lack of mandate rather odd. When events happen during governments, do they need to seek a mandate to take action? See 9/11, covid, Falklands war etc. financial crash etc. A government relies on passing laws in parliament. If a leader can do that, they can govern. Some rather stupid calls a week or too back for the King to summon Starmer to form a government - plainly ridiculous as he was nowhere near a majority.
It's total nonsense. The only thing you can really complain about is when a government chooses to do the opposite of what's in their manifesto, and even then circumstances like you mention might necessitate change. There's only one real mandate, the support of the majority of the House of Commons be that as a government as a whole, or with confidence support from an opposition party.
I agree with you both. Very overused term as well, plus even if there is a mandate it doesn't stop people trying to prevent something, nor should it.
You can feel Labour searching for the right attack lines on Sunak this morning, can't you?
They are worried.
Most of us are just waiting for the champagne delivery after the news that the clown has hung up his balls!
Of course the opposition will be working out how best to oppose the new PM; it's their job, and a sign of neither confidence nor worry.
I doubt the opposition is really worried - the combination of fallout from this year's display of strong and stable Conservative leadership and the growing economic troubles, exacerbated by Loopy Liz, still mean that a Conservative loss is nailed on, and it is hard to see that changing. The size of Labour's win may - or may not - reduce a little; if it does, that's a good thing in the long run.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
I have no problem with Rishi becoming PM at 2pm because that is how our constitution is supposed to work.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
I agree. I think members should vote when a party is in opposition and the general public can decide whether it was a good decision or not at a GE. However while in Govt I think the party MPs should decide.
Also as you say it is the norm for PMs to change when their party is in Govt so no complaints there, but it does get a bit tenuous if there are multiple changes or a new PM ditches the manifesto completely. The trouble with my issue there though is at what point has a Govt gone too far. It is too fluid and too much a matter of opinion and not a definitive action that triggers a change.
I got all six numbers on the national lottery last night, but I don't feel like it's the right time to win all that money, so I have ripped up my ticket
Constitutionally it’s absolute b*llocks, as we all know. We elect MPs and Parliaments, not PMs although it is often not framed that way.
From my perspective I fail to see what the difference is between one change of PM in a Parliament and two - if your argument is that changing the PM destroys the mandate and necessitates a new GE, then surely that “break” happens the first time the PM is replaced. The second change is of no practical consequence.
Obviously whatever is correct constitutionally isn’t the same as what plays well in the country and I do think there is a strong desire right now to have an election - people do feel taken for fools with the Truss debacle and a new leader, and they want their say.
That said, if (big if) Rishi stabilises things in the coming months I suspect a lot of that immediate pressure will die away. If however things stay a bit hairy (and Tory MPs remain fractious) I would not be incredibly surprised to see a May/June or October 2023 election being mooted. Chances have to be pretty decent of a vote next year, therefore.
I think we'll get a relatively early one for the reasons given about how things playing being important. But if they can get over the worst bit now the internal pressure goes away and playing for time is their best hope
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 1h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Gas futures are currently 330p/therm which, whilst less than half the peak, is pretty high and means that the government subsidy scheme will be very expensive. We need it down to nearer 200p/therm.
What happened last week when the Gas future price doubled overnight?
I honestly don't know. As I have said before the market seems to be driven by speculation so any wild rumour can cause panic and people worrying about margin calls on their "investments". Sorting out this market would, in my opinion, do a lot on its own to reduce the price of gas. A lot of taxpayers money is going to end up in the hands of these speculators rather than simply being spent on the producers of gas.
You can feel Labour searching for the right attack lines on Sunak this morning, can't you?
They are worried.
Classic CR. For what it's worth, this Labourite is not worried for Labour's prospects.
In any case Labour will be looking for the best ways to attack and oppose the new leader whether they're worried or quietly confident. You have to keep doing the Opposition job well right up to the election: there's always one more vote you could be winning.
Theo Usherwood @theousherwood · 48s Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
Sunak camp sounding entitled. Not a great look.
It’s not entitled - it’s the reality of playing any game of poker.
Once you are found out (as Penny) will be the end result isn’t a prime role (foreign secretary) it’s a poisoned chalice
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Theo Usherwood @theousherwood · 48s Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
Sunak camp sounding entitled. Not a great look.
It’s not entitled - it’s the reality of playing any game of poker.
Once you are found out (as Penny) will be the end result isn’t a prime role (foreign secretary) it’s a poisoned chalice
Being the only MP brave enough to challenge Sunak, will stand her in good stead if the Sunak project doesn't work out as hoped.
Not convinced. 10% is a non-trivial proportion of the public even allowing for a misunderestimating of the question.
Sure 10% or whatever the true percentage is is too much, but plenty of surveys have shown that the UK is one of the countries with the lowest levels of racism and anti-immigrant sentiment. Is there still racism in the UK? Of course, and sexism, homophobia, misogyny, sectarianism and dozens of other prejudices, but in almost every area things are far better than they used to be even a few decades ago.
Brexit was an abberation then?
I can't really be bothered arguing with someone like you.
I think this kind of survey is slightly complicated by the way that for many people in some EU countries "immigrants" means people from outside the EU - although that is also partly to do with racism.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
Empty suit? King Charles ears?
Empty suit? hoodie.
He'll be very dull, but I think we've had enough excitement for a while.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 2h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Yep. Liz’s problem was she thought she could come in and rip up the rulebook.
It is actually a very good thing in many ways that this particular tactic failed so miserably, as it may make others more cautious about diverging too much from the original mandate/manifesto.
I don't think the change of direction was the real problem per se, but the belief that you could announce big tax cuts and say "wait six weeks for the spending statement". It was absolutely bonkers, genuinely one of the stupidest things I've ever seen a British government try to do.
Yes, some would have moaned about the change, but blew up because they'd done no preparation.
I contrasted awhile back with Macron investing years of effort of some of his intended plans.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
William Hague's change to the leadership election process has been a failure. It's better if the leader is determined by MPs, and more in keeping with parliamentary democracy.
You simply cannot govern if a leader lacks MP support, and moaning about member mandate doesn't help that. Perhaps it only goes to members if it is really close (and you reallocate third place so you get a clear view, to avoid a Truss scenario).
I don't think that membership voting is a good route for parties to go down. A 'one member one vote' leadership election values the input of inactive members who just have a direct debit the same as local Councillors and people who actually hold office in the party. It gets even worse if you allow people to join paying £3 to have a vote, as which occurred in the Labour Party in 2015.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
He’s a Tory toerag.
The handsome designation for Sunak confuses me a bit, I'll admit. Each to their own I suppose.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 2h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Also creates the intriguing possibility that Russia - if the gas blackmail doesn't work - might be defeated with help from climate change.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
He’s a Tory toerag.
The handsome designation for Sunak confuses me a bit, I'll admit. Each to their own I suppose.
I don’t care about his height, girth, follicular status, ugliness or dress sense.
I do care that he’s a leading member of a quasi criminal organisation. That bloke Kwarteng ought to be doing time. Not to mention The Oaf and countless others.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
So we are about to have our first non-white ethnic minority leader and the vast majority of us don't care. I think that is something to be proud of as a nation. The ugly racism of my youth in the 60s is thankfully a distant memory.
It is perhaps inevitable that the Conservative party will provide this, just as they have provided all 3 female PMs. The Guardian will of course maintain their tropes that the Tory party is misogynist and racist as well as out of touch but can they succeed in persuading anyone but themselves?
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
For a politician who with struggle with a technocratic global-elite persona, avoiding a vote is a risk IMO.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
I have no problem with Rishi becoming PM at 2pm because that is how our constitution is supposed to work.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
I think party members may have a say when the party is in opposition - their choice can then either be endorsed or rejected by the electorate at a general election. In government however, the right to govern, and choice of leader flows from the electorate as a whole, and their representatives, the MPs.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
Don’t forget his ramping of What3Words, who, according to a PBer last week, are losing money hand over fist.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
Thats true. If there is a democratic exercise we have GEs for that. Governments are about MPs, the outrage is not there.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
For a politician who with struggle with a technocratic global-elite persona, avoiding a vote is a risk IMO.
He's only "avoiding" a vote in the same way that Gordon Brown did.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
For a politician who with struggle with a technocratic global-elite persona, avoiding a vote is a risk IMO.
He's only "avoiding" a vote in the same way that Gordon Brown did.
Indeed. That's didn't work out so well. Ignore the point. But it's definitely a risk for someone who can look a bit out of touch.
"He didn't trust his own members to back him, why should anyone else? He's afraid of a general election"
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 2h Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Liz Truss would have been a lucky Prime Minister if it were not for a rush of blood to the head, because falling gas prices drastically cut the likely cost of her energy price cap freeze, thus reducing the hole in Kwasi's mini-budget.
Common sense is breaking out all over the NHS as doctors conclude children who think they’re trans are going through a phase. By some strange coincidence the fox killer and child castration lobby are in high dudgeon. Obviously.
So we are about to have our first non-white ethnic minority leader and the vast majority of us don't care. I think that is something to be proud of as a nation. The ugly racism of my youth in the 60s is thankfully a distant memory.
It is perhaps inevitable that the Conservative party will provide this, just as they have provided all 3 female PMs. The Guardian will of course maintain their tropes that the Tory party is misogynist and racist as well as out of touch but can they succeed in persuading anyone but themselves?
As the past few months have proved, the Conservatives are very much a party of two halves. You are correct as far as the MPs are concerned and the tropes you mention are more appropriate for the membership.
I'm astounded by the certainty of Damien Green's comments this morning. I mean we've seen this whole thing play out with Boris about 12 hours ago. How do they do it, it must be the number one skill in a politician to trot out a line you know is complete bollocks but with total self assuredness.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
Empty suit? King Charles ears?
Empty suit? hoodie.
He'll be very dull, but I think we've had enough excitement for a while.
I don't know what's inside the suit but he's definitely the best looking PM we've had. Let's face it most politicians are not pretty.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
For a politician who with struggle with a technocratic global-elite persona, avoiding a vote is a risk IMO.
He's only "avoiding" a vote in the same way that Gordon Brown did.
Indeed. That's didn't work out so well. Ignore the point. But it's definitely a risk for someone who can look a bit out of touch.
Labour are going to spin him that way, vote or no vote.
Brown's downfall wasn't because he was coronated, it was because he had been chancellor for a decade and the economy imploded in a way that could plausibly be blamed on him. But Labour still forced a hung parliament from a weaker majority than the Tories have now.
If you were going to take over a main political party with widespread support from its MPs, but needed to confirm your authority to get a few things through, then you could do worse than come to power around the same time as a series of boundary changes trigger some “two into one” discussions.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
He’s a Tory toerag.
The handsome designation for Sunak confuses me a bit, I'll admit. Each to their own I suppose.
An ally of Bolsonaro is in custody after attacking police with a rifle and grenades .
The police came to arrest him on a separate matter. Hopefully this might help Lula who although corrupt might at least slow down the destruction of the Amazon rainforest !
So we are about to have our first non-white ethnic minority leader and the vast majority of us don't care. I think that is something to be proud of as a nation. The ugly racism of my youth in the 60s is thankfully a distant memory.
It is perhaps inevitable that the Conservative party will provide this, just as they have provided all 3 female PMs. The Guardian will of course maintain their tropes that the Tory party is misogynist and racist as well as out of touch but can they succeed in persuading anyone but themselves?
We now have also had numerous Tory non-white and female individuals in the other great offices of state such as Chancellor. Nobody batted an eye lid when the likes of Sunak, Javid, Kwasi etc were getting those jobs.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
Don’t forget his ramping of What3Words, who, according to a PBer last week, are losing money hand over fist.
To choose just one of those alleged predictions of mine, I never said “China released covid deliberately” I said “it came from the lab”
Et voila
“Pre-print:
Endonuclease fingerprint indicates a synthetic origin of SARS-CoV-2
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
A vote by 180,000 self selecting octagenarian Tory Members just draws attention to the historical absurdity that got us to where we are. Moreso when we're shown these members deliberating in pubs throughout the shires in quite misleading vox pops
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
For a politician who with struggle with a technocratic global-elite persona, avoiding a vote is a risk IMO.
I don't think the public take a mandate from Tory party members seriously. Not for being prime minister anyway.
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Labour imposed former Chancellor Gordon Brown as PM by coronation of Labour MPs, no party members vote and no general election 15 years ago in 2007.
So they can have no complaints when Conservative MPs crown former Chancellor Rishi Sunak as PM at 2pm, with no party members vote and no general election
I have no problem with Rishi becoming PM at 2pm because that is how our constitution is supposed to work.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
I don't disagree MPs should choose the PM in power, party members can still get the final say on the new leader in opposition
Which delivered Corbyn. Party members are not qualified to choose Prime Ministers or Prime Ministers in waiting. Elected members in a sovereign Parliament should be.
The fly in the ointment is if Johnson is correct and he had 102 nominations, 102 MPs also fail the qualification threshold.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
Don’t forget his ramping of What3Words, who, according to a PBer last week, are losing money hand over fist.
Not sure it was "a PBer" so much as their published accounts!
You can feel Labour searching for the right attack lines on Sunak this morning, can't you?
They are worried.
I think for many of us we are suffering a little from euphoria that big dog has gone off with his tail between his legs.
Although polls will improve significantly that will be largely down to the fact that the recent 14% and 19% Tory figures were never going to last to a GE. Beyond that it is nowhere near plain sailing for Sunak or the Tories.
Before I would consider a switch I would want to see evidence that the interests of the country are being put first. I want to see cabinet members chosen on merit not because they appease some loony section of the party and membership.
If all we get for the next 2 years is more self-indulgent Tory infighting and incompetent ministers put in place to keep the ERG and members happy then Sunak deserves to lose.
We will know which route he has taken by this time next week but given the noises coming from the likes of Dories and Chope this morning I don't think Labour has too much to worry about for the time being. The Tories look incapable of uniting.
Assuming Rishi gets it (97% chance currently with Smarkets) he has a couple of opportunities:
1) He can run the country intelligently and with seriousness for a change while being sure it can't be for more than two years
2) He can do this while having an outside chance of winning an election.
3) He could (especially if he decides he only has two years) indulge in honesty with the public about tax, spending, debt and borrowing, and the choices we really have, and as he has nothing to lose engage in answering questions intelligently and being worth listening to.
His outside chance of winning (10% chance?) involves being lucky (warm winter, Russians withdraw, inflation drops, gas price miracle, house prices don't crash) and creating the impression of having a government of greater competence than the Labour alternative. This has not been an option recently.
An unanswered question here is this: the Tories lost in 1997 by a landslide because of events in 1992. That was a different era. Could it be that in our current age polling and sentiment could change much more rapidly. Are we remembering less well and forgetting more quickly.
Sunak will be a competent if uninspiring centrist, and grim domestic politics will be out-grimmed by even grimmer world politics. The appetite for profound political upheaval will be dulled. The Tories will unite under Sunak as he becomes their only possible chance of survival
Labour will still win in 24, but not by 30 points. Sunak will claw back support. He might even reduce Labour to NOM
When Leondamus speaks you’d better listen. There’s always surprises on the upside.
Poor guy - no millions of dead Brits from covid, no alien takeover, no Russian nuclear strike, Truss surprises hugely on the downside and is gone, Boris wasn't restored, not even any proof that China released covid deliberately....but sooner or later he must get one right!
Don’t forget his ramping of What3Words, who, according to a PBer last week, are losing money hand over fist.
To choose just one of those alleged predictions of mine, I never said “China released covid deliberately” I said “it came from the lab”
Et voila
“Pre-print:
Endonuclease fingerprint indicates a synthetic origin of SARS-CoV-2
Rishi is walking into a trap by avoiding a leadership vote. He will struggle with a reputation as a technocrat regardless. Dodging an election will not help that and will dog his premiership. He will be better if is Mordaunt gets her numbers and triggers a vote.
Balls. Complaining that there is a democratic deficit if the ghastly Con membership is cheated of a vote, is like claiming a democratic deficit if the CEO of Geest unilaterally decides on the next president of Guatemala without consulting the board of directors.
Sunak is literally the son-in-law of one of the world's wealthiest CEOs.
Rishi Rich.
Young, handsome and rich! What's not to like?
He’s a Tory toerag.
The handsome designation for Sunak confuses me a bit, I'll admit. Each to their own I suppose.
Comments
What's not to like?
David Buik
@truemagic68
·
1h
The UK Gilt market has responded positively early doors to the prospect of a Sunak administration. Yields have fallen accordingly - 2-year from 3.70% to 3.50%, 7-year from 4.18% to 3.93%, 10-year from 4.05% to 3.82%
Checks Betfair – still 28/1.
It's not happening.
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
1h
Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1584445043209023488
If she was a highly promising rising star then it might make sense to take the bird in the hand and cut a deal, but she's not exactly that; She's a basically competent politician who for slightly random reasons suddenly has a decent shot at the top job.
“Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose”
But the lack of a mandate was a big problem for Truss as she somehow convinced herself she could change the direction of the government, based on a 'mandate' from the leadership election.
Theo Usherwood
@theousherwood
·
48s
Senior Sunak supporter tells me those around Penny Mordaunt knows the game is up.
But:
"She's not up for it. She thinks she can win. It's ego. The longer she holds out, the more she thinks Rishi will give her something big. But it's the other way round and she can't see it."
The momentary Chancellor has lifted your curse.
To those who got on him at 250/1.
Then that pesky Liz had to spoil it all. Briefly, but long enough.
Occasionally at parties.
For everyone else, this is from 2018.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/pg_2019-03-19_views-of-the-eu_0-14/
Although polls will improve significantly that will be largely down to the fact that the recent 14% and 19% Tory figures were never going to last to a GE. Beyond that it is nowhere near plain sailing for Sunak or the Tories.
Before I would consider a switch I would want to see evidence that the interests of the country are being put first. I want to see cabinet members chosen on merit not because they appease some loony section of the party and membership.
If all we get for the next 2 years is more self-indulgent Tory infighting and incompetent ministers put in place to keep the ERG and members happy then Sunak deserves to lose.
We will know which route he has taken by this time next week but given the noises coming from the likes of Dories and Chope this morning I don't think Labour has too much to worry about for the time being. The Tories look incapable of uniting.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1584474134188556288
It is actually a very good thing in many ways that this particular tactic failed so miserably, as it may make others more cautious about diverging too much from the original mandate/manifesto.
What I dislike is any idea that the party membership gets a say in who will be Prime Minister - that should be left to those who know the candidates best, I.e. other MPs in the same party
Thankfully we now have £65bn reasons why party members should not be allowed a say and hopefully that will be followed through
I came to the conclusion that the best leader for the Tories was Mordaunt. The last thing this country needs right now is an out of touch gazillionaire technocratic financier that caused much of the mess leading the country. I am worried in that a Sunak premiership that it will fuel right wing nuts and that will make Labour's job to pull the country together harder.
Perhaps it is the Tory philosophy? "Do as I say, not as I do"?
I really don't understand what people see in Mordaunt. What achievements does she have to her name?
https://twitter.com/VPatelFX/status/1584463151327682560
".. record-breaking wind and solar production meant the European Union (EU) averted €11 billion in extra gas costs since the Russian invasion began in February."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/ukraine-war-pivot-to-wind-and-solar-power-saved-the-eu-11bn-new-research-shows/ar-AA135UA1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=41107b40dcdf4272b377a482152abec2
Of course the opposition will be working out how best to oppose the new PM; it's their job, and a sign of neither confidence nor worry.
I doubt the opposition is really worried - the combination of fallout from this year's display of strong and stable Conservative leadership and the growing economic troubles, exacerbated by Loopy Liz, still mean that a Conservative loss is nailed on, and it is hard to see that changing. The size of Labour's win may - or may not - reduce a little; if it does, that's a good thing in the long run.
Also as you say it is the norm for PMs to change when their party is in Govt so no complaints there, but it does get a bit tenuous if there are multiple changes or a new PM ditches the manifesto completely. The trouble with my issue there though is at what point has a Govt gone too far. It is too fluid and too much a matter of opinion and not a definitive action that triggers a change.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1584279743339589632?s=46&t=952ZrZZ_pE3jwdBW3tqcOA
Will a nuclear incident (of any type) be intentionally initiated in Ukraine before the end of 2023?
The result is... 48:52
What a cesspit the Tory party is.
Once you are found out (as Penny) will be the end result isn’t a prime role (foreign secretary) it’s a poisoned chalice
Lab Maj 2.28
NOM 2.5
Con Maj 6
He'll be very dull, but I think we've had enough excitement for a while.
The people here are mad hedonists. I love it
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
2h
Unseasonally mild weather in Europe continue to push down gas and electricity prices -- bringing quite a lot of economic relief.
In late October, Berlin and Zurich may see 20 Celsius this week, and Paris and Madrid almost 25 Celsius.
Her happiness at Bozo quitting the race I’m sure was shared by millions across the country .
Are there no more obscure blogs where you can go rub your crotch on the furniture?
I contrasted awhile back with Macron investing years of effort of some of his intended plans.
A vote by the 310 elected Tory MPs sthough not perfect appears much more legitimate.
Er, Martine Croxall?
Didn’t we used to have an amusing, acerbic commenter called Martin Croxall?
That is bizarrely similar
I do care that he’s a leading member of a quasi criminal organisation. That bloke Kwarteng ought to be doing time. Not to mention The Oaf and countless others.
It is perhaps inevitable that the Conservative party will provide this, just as they have provided all 3 female PMs. The Guardian will of course maintain their tropes that the Tory party is misogynist and racist as well as out of touch but can they succeed in persuading anyone but themselves?
"He didn't trust his own members to back him, why should anyone else? He's afraid of a general election"
https://twitter.com/TwisterFilm/status/1584263662088253440
Brown's downfall wasn't because he was coronated, it was because he had been chancellor for a decade and the economy imploded in a way that could plausibly be blamed on him. But Labour still forced a hung parliament from a weaker majority than the Tories have now.
The police came to arrest him on a separate matter. Hopefully this might help Lula who although corrupt might at least slow down the destruction of the Amazon rainforest !
Et voila
“Pre-print:
Endonuclease fingerprint indicates a synthetic origin of SARS-CoV-2
A collaborative product by @VBruttel, @tony_vandongen, and myself.
Here's what we found:
biorxiv.org/cgi/content/sh…”
https://twitter.com/washburnealex/status/1583145276151189504?s=46&t=zQTb85yUB9K4Ug9nuIBk4w
The fly in the ointment is if Johnson is correct and he had 102 nominations, 102 MPs also fail the qualification threshold.
1) He can run the country intelligently and with seriousness for a change while being sure it can't be for more than two years
2) He can do this while having an outside chance of winning an election.
3) He could (especially if he decides he only has two years) indulge in honesty with the public about tax, spending, debt and borrowing, and the choices we really have, and as he has nothing to lose engage in answering questions intelligently and being worth listening to.
His outside chance of winning (10% chance?) involves being lucky (warm winter, Russians withdraw, inflation drops, gas price miracle, house prices don't crash) and creating the impression of having a government of greater competence than the Labour alternative. This has not been an option recently.
An unanswered question here is this: the Tories lost in 1997 by a landslide because of events in 1992. That was a different era. Could it be that in our current age polling and sentiment could change much more rapidly. Are we remembering less well and forgetting more quickly.
The jury's out on that one, with conflicting conclusions. We may never know.
Stick to the 2024 election prediction, which is probably a solid one; certainly more so than Truss surprising on the upside or Boris being restored!