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What a waste of 100 nominations – politicalbetting.com

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  • Farooq said:

    I’ve only just heard this news. Glorious. Rejoice!

    The Tory Party gets another shot at bringing itself back to some sort of sanity. I don’t have the highest of hopes, but I am much more positive about the future of British politics than I was at the start of the day

    This is just one battle in the war for the soul of the Conservatives. Don't think for a moment it's over.
    Of course not. Sunak is only moderate and sane compared with his immediate predecessors.

    It's not even the beginning of the end- that will only happen once the Conservatives realise that they are in opposition, rather than taking a sabbatical from government.

    But it's a significant marker of the beginning of the middle or something.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I expect the vast majority to move to Rishi now and cannot see Penny at 100
    It's done.

    Thank the Gods.

    Now can someone please get on and try and actually govern for the first time since early summer.

    Mordaunt is probably failing to gain the votes of some right-wingers because of her controversial trans views. Gullis could be in that camp.
    The right wing of the party is hoping for a membership vote which they think Penny will win.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    stodge said:

    Fascinating results from the first round of the Slovenian Presidential election.

    The social democrat has crashed to third and the run off is between the SDS candidate, the former Foreign Minister, Anze Logar and the Independent Natasa Pirc Musar, the President of the Slovenian Red Cross and supported by the Pirates and the Greens.

    The gap is seven points - 34-27 - so a lot of other votes to be fought for in round two on November 13th.

    I think Pirc Musar is pretty much certain to take it in the runoff.

  • Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    ·
    21m
    On Diwali tomorrow.
    @RishiSunak
    looks set to become party leader. As a Hindu, he will be the first British Prime Minister to practice a non-Christian faith

    I assume that's taking Disraeli as not strictly Jewish?

    He converted.
    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    JohnO said:

    Assuming Rishi wins, I'd dump Zahawi but retain Cleverly and possibly Coffey too in Cabinet. I guess Wallaces stays at MoD. Rees-Mogg, Heaton-Harris, Buckland, Sharma and Trevelyan should also all be sent packing. I imagine Dominic Raab (who has kind of redeemed himself recently) will be rewarded, quite conceivably as Home Secretary. Big promotions for Mordaunt and Badenoch.

    Coffey? She’s useless!
    I've heard she wasn't bad at all at DWP and Sunak will need to include some from the ousted regime. But Brandon Lewis should also be sent packing...and of course Jake Berry!
    Perhaps Sunak should make room somehow for Burnt Coffee.

    Though doubt that Trussites will prove as influential in 21st century, as Peelites were in 19th.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Brexit nutters are taking the news well.


    Charming.

    Anyone know if that's (deliberately or otherwise; probably otherwise) culturally insensitive, in a Michael Howard/flying pigs sort of way?
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if MPs vote 250 Sunak, 105 Mordaunt, and Mordaunt wins the membership vote?

    We get Liz Truss Mark 2.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    The twat icing on the turd cake.


    Is this a spoof?
    If not, I am speechless.

    He never was Prime Ministerial.
    He was a huckster, a con artist.
    Con artist is the one thing Johnson is good at. Really good. He has the patter, the unprovable irrelevant detail, is the extrovert, the manipulator, the false charm. In another sphere he would successfully get people to hand over their life savings for fake investments. Instead of which he peddles dodgy ideologies.

    Those of us who have never been taken in by him for a second need to recognise his skills.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    There’s a gap here for Kwasi Kwarteng.
  • HYUFD said:
    He is a nasty piece of work and sums up the vile right
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Sunaks best move now is a massive contrition strategy. He needs to spend up until Christmas (at least) basically throwing Truss under the bus. No-one will mourn the Truss “era”. Just draw a big red line through it and say sorry.

    Of course that(and the divided state of the party) is going to be a millstone round his neck and I suspect dooms the Tories for the next GE, whenever it comes. But he is likely to be able to claw some support back. Just how much, events will dictate.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,839
    Freezing rate bands raises £5bn a year. I don't know if that is just income tax or everything? Corporation tax was supposed to be £18bn. A few other bits and pieces mentioned earlier could get that up to £30bn couldn't it? Has the fiscal situation really changed that much since April? If energy companies make a killing off the government's support for bills a windfall tax seems reasonable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Endillion said:

    Brexit nutters are taking the news well.


    Charming.

    Anyone know if that's (deliberately or otherwise; probably otherwise) culturally insensitive, in a Michael Howard/flying pigs sort of way?
    I dunno about culturally offensive, it’s just horribly offensive full stop.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
    He defected the the Conservatives after being won over by David Cameron.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/24/david-campbell-bannerman-ukip-tories
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I expect the vast majority to move to Rishi now and cannot see Penny at 100
    It's done.

    Thank the Gods.

    Now can someone please get on and try and actually govern for the first time since early summer.

    Mordaunt is probably failing to gain the votes of some right-wingers because of her controversial trans views. Gullis could be in that camp.
    The right wing of the party is hoping for a membership vote which they think Penny will win.
    That doesn't make any sense. Penny is about as left as a Tory can get. Completely woke. Rishi is picking up Boris' endorsements anyway.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Bloke on 5 live from FT says Rishi & Hunt to raise Income Tax to 21p in end of October statement.

    Should make Barthol. Roberts night!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I expect the vast majority to move to Rishi now and cannot see Penny at 100
    It's done.

    Thank the Gods.

    Now can someone please get on and try and actually govern for the first time since early summer.

    Mordaunt is probably failing to gain the votes of some right-wingers because of her controversial trans views. Gullis could be in that camp.
    The right wing of the party is hoping for a membership vote which they think Penny will win.
    That doesn't make any sense. Penny is about as left as a Tory can get. Completely woke. Rishi is picking up Boris' endorsements anyway.
    She's right-wing on some issues and woke on others.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    "And though I have reached out to both Rishi and Penny – because I hoped that we could come together in the national interest – we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this."

    I am looking forward to hearing what the lying fuckwit was offering Sunak and Mordaunt.

    'You can have your old jobs back'?

    is this really language you think appropriate to a website like this - honestly getting tired of this type of language which is getting very common and its pretty juvenile and unpleasant to read- i think i have had enough so going to leave the site
    Really? How do you cope in the real world?
    I don't know how your world is, but I don't hear the phrase 'lying fuckwit' used very often in my day to day dealings.
    I do. But then I spend quite a bit of time discussing our former PM

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,827

    Bloke on 5 live from FT says Rishi & Hunt to raise Income Tax to 21p in end of October statement.

    Should make Barthol. Roberts night!!

    As long as it's not on NI I think Barty would probably not mind because income tax is paid on all income rather than just earned income. Everyone is treated fairly with an income tax rise.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ydoethur said:

    Was there ever a man with such extraordinary luck as Sunak? Raised to the top of the Cabinet on the fly because he wasn't anathema to an obnoxious certifiable lunatic with shocking judgement and a raging egomania. Elevated to demigod status by his free money during the pandemic. Able to dodge all sorts of questions about his wealth, his breaches of COVID law and tax status because they were totally overshadowed by the crimes of Johnson and many civil servants who couldn't shop him without destroying themselves. Brings down a PM and as a result looks set to lose the prize, only for the person who beat him to cock up on a truly epic scale a bare month into her premiership and having to resign. And then finally, when even then he might have lost the prize, a totally discredited figure with no support anywhere except among a few of the dimmer Tory members whips up a massive head of steam before imploding again, blocking any serious challenge and handing him the leadership nem con.

    That's just amazing.

    I do hope his luck hasn't deserted him, because we all need it to last just a bit longer...

    Sunak is personable, focused and hard working. His greatest success IMO was marrying into the Infosys dynasty and inheriting their millions. He wouldn't normally get a look-in with his background but the in-laws clearly decided he was someone they could trust. He is head and shoulders above the rest of this abject government and deserves to be PM in the absence of anyone better. Not a huge amount of common sense, but you can't have everything.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited October 2022

    "And though I have reached out to both Rishi and Penny – because I hoped that we could come together in the national interest – we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this."

    I am looking forward to hearing what the lying fuckwit was offering Sunak and Mordaunt.

    'You can have your old jobs back'?

    is this really language you think appropriate to a website like this - honestly getting tired of this type of language which is getting very common and its pretty juvenile and unpleasant to read- i think i have had enough so going to leave the site
    Really? How do you cope in the real world?
    I don't know how your world is, but I don't hear the phrase 'lying fuckwit' used very often in my day to day dealings.
    I do. But then I spend quite a bit of time discussing our former PM

    I admit I used it (without the f*ckwit) just after I read his statement.

    I think the Tragedy of Boris (* film title copyright asserted) is that the person he is most lying to is himself, about himself.

    Got myself into a bit of trouble earlier with some of the commenters on the Lee Anderson constituents' facebook page by explaining why BJ was not a suitable person to be PM. Will revisit shortly to observe the reactions to the news.

    I disagree on wasted nominations - they still have nearly 24 hours.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Jonathan said:

    There’s a gap here for Kwasi Kwarteng.

    Strictly already recruiting for next season?


    "He crashed the pound but can he dance?"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269


    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    ·
    21m
    On Diwali tomorrow.
    @RishiSunak
    looks set to become party leader. As a Hindu, he will be the first British Prime Minister to practice a non-Christian faith

    I assume that's taking Disraeli as not strictly Jewish?

    Disraeli's family were Jewish. However, his father converted to CoE when Disraeli was a child, and he was baptised.

    Disraeli practised Christianity through his life and was buried in a CoE Church.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Surely they reverse the stamp duty cut before raising income tax.

    Of course they could do both.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,839
    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Rishi doesn’t need Hunt.

    Rishi may keep him as the public figure of hate, to announce the spending cuts / tax rises, but long term his political career is basically finished.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Commiserations to those who'd backed an election in 2022 or 2023.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
    He was Conservative candidate for Warwick and Leamington in 2001, I know as I campaigned with him.

    Then he was UKIP candidate for North Cornwall in 2005 and a UKIP MEP in 2009 before defecting back to the Conservatives
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
    He was Conservative candidate for Warwick and Leamington in 2001, I know as I campaigned with him.

    Then he was UKIP candidate for North Cornwall in 2005 and a UKIP MEP in 2009 before defecting back to the Conservatives
    In other words, a pretty standard member of modern Tory Party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160


    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    ·
    11m
    1/ Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and the great vaccine roll-out.

    He led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced, and then took on Putin and his barbaric war in Ukraine.

    We will always be grateful to him for that.
    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    2/ Although he has decided not to run for PM again, I truly hope he continues to contribute to public life at home and abroad.

    The original version read:

    / Although he has decided not to run for PM again, I truly hope he continues to contribute to public life at home or (preferably) abroad.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited October 2022

    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
    He defected the the Conservatives after being won over by David Cameron.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/24/david-campbell-bannerman-ukip-tories
    UKIP from 2004 -> 2009 I think, including Deputy Leader. Cameron got him back.

    That cartoon is nasty.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great comments on some of my FB feeds from seething Cons members. Typical of the genre:

    "There is a remainer, globalist coup taking place at the heart of the British government."

    Unpick that puppy.

    Setting aside the endless "remainer" guff, the "globalist" thing they keep going on about is interesting.

    I assume the "globalists" behind this "coup" are the bankers and financiers etc who refused to support their IEA financial shithousery. So domestic and foreign banks and bankers and investors refusing to do whatever the loon right say is a coup. Because England should be able to do what it likes and the rest of the world should just say "thank you".

    English exceptionalism at its best. Do they think we are the US?
    The key phrase is "WEF" which I think is supposed to stand for World Economic Forum but it isn't a huge leap to get to other meanings.
    Given that the World Economic Forum as far as I know has no formal or informal connections with Israel or Jewishness (forgive me if antisemitism isn't what you're driving at), is every globalist takeover of the world to be ignored because the very concept is considered antisemitic? In which case, would anyone like to take over the world with me? It seems easy if nobody is allowed to say anything about it.
    That's very naive of you:

    The World Economic Forum is in Davos, which is the same ski resort as Klosters. And Klosters is well known as the ski playground of (a) the British Royal Family, and (b) Nat Rothschild.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    He was a Conservative, and he is currently a Conservative (according to Wikipedia).
    He was Conservative candidate for Warwick and Leamington in 2001, I know as I campaigned with him.

    Then he was UKIP candidate for North Cornwall in 2005 and a UKIP MEP in 2009 before defecting back to the Conservatives
    He is vile
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited October 2022
    "Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Boris would have won members vote - already had a mandate from the people. Rishi and Penny, despite requests from Boris refused to unite which would have made governing utterly impossible.
    Penny actually asked him to step aside for her. It will now be impossible to avoid a GE."

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1584303574061707264
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Labour 1.55 most seats on Betfair looks massive but DYOR.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    MaxPB said:

    Bloke on 5 live from FT says Rishi & Hunt to raise Income Tax to 21p in end of October statement.

    Should make Barthol. Roberts night!!

    As long as it's not on NI I think Barty would probably not mind because income tax is paid on all income rather than just earned income. Everyone is treated fairly with an income tax rise.
    Oh yes thats true
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Glad to see my political analysis is still good enough to make a profit every so often. I knew Boris was bullshitting about the 100 MPs. That he's withdrawn shows he never had the numbers because that 102 figure doesn't get tested in an actual vote. He remains the king over the water in case Rishi fucks up before 2024 this way as well and he also gets to cash in for the best year or so on the lecture circuit to repair his balance sheet.

    True - if Sunak becomes Truss 2.0 (apologies) and crashes and burns later in the winter or the spring, I presume Johnson will throw his hat back into the ring.

    I can't see the Conservative Parliamentary Party having any desire to go through all of this again (let alone the rest of us) and with the "threat of Johnson hanging in the background, Sunak will be safe until the GE. After that, assuming the party is in Opposition, all bets (so to speak) are off.

    I note the Conservative-inclined are already beginning to talk up Sunak as some kind of saviour - the truth is the Government of this country has effectively been paralysed since July and everyone will remember this deranged period of paralysis by self-indulgence and remember who was responsible for it, oddly enough, the first Cabinet Minister to break ranks and begin the process of bringing down Boris
    Johnson.
    Was he first? I have a memory he was second - a fast follower (don’t remember who was first) - and people criticised him for not having courage of his convictions
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ping said:

    Rishi doesn’t need Hunt.

    Rishi may keep him as the public figure of hate, to announce the spending cuts / tax rises, but long term his political career is basically finished.

    Off-the-wall idea, but how about Steve Baker for CoE? He's a fiscal hawk, which is what is needed right now and keeps the ERG onside but away from ideology.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Duddridge declares for Rishi.

    Now Rishi 9 Penny 1 since Boris withdrew.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Labour 1.55 most seats on Betfair looks massive but DYOR.

    Not when adjusted for inflation.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    Google News's link to the BBC article: "Boris Johnson: Rishi Sunak praises former PM as he pulls out of leadership race".

    I checked so fast...but I thought it more probable that "he" referred back to the subject "Rishi Sunak". Aaargh!

    Mordaunt it is, then? Just as it was Truss before. I doubt it. Even if Mordaunt makes it to 100 she will probably drop out, but we shall see.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,839
    Although 21% is messy I would prefer that to the NI increase. A gradual rise to 24% and simultaneous reduction in NI (8% to keep it tidy) would be welcome. People say it would be foolish to reduce employer NI but might it not lead to pay rises?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    For the first time in years, by the end of this week we might see an adult government trying to carry out policy in a sane and sensible way with integrity and poise. Cabinet members might be there because they can do the job rather than they bowed the knee to the PM at every opportunity.


    Quite incredible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Boris would have won members vote - already had a mandate from the people. Rishi and Penny, despite requests from Boris refused to unite which would have made governing utterly impossible.
    Penny actually asked him to step aside for her. It will now be impossible to avoid a GE."

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1584303574061707264

    I guess that translates as "I'm fucking off to the Lords so I couldn't care less that you are all wrong and my hero will always love me"

    By-election watch.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    Jonathan said:

    Boris defeated.

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    Is this the end of the line for Boris Johnson's political career? He's 58 now - if Labour are in for two terms, he'll be 70 by the time the Conservatives next get back to office and he'll surely be yesterday's man.

    A somewhat ignominious end if I'm being honest - perhaps as with us all, the fault lies not in the stars but in ourselves and he was incapable of being the Prime Minister we wanted or needed.

    To paraphrase Dickens, he might have been a good Prime Minister in the best of times but he wasn't suited to the worst of times.

    The question now is whether he retreats quietly into the night or whether he remains the king over the water and a thorn in the side of Sunak if not directly then through his "friends" such as Dorries and Rees-Mogg whose political careers have probably also ended tonight.

    To the victor, the spoils - it seems unlikely Mordaunt will get the nominations necessary and it's already clear those leaving the Johnson ship are heading more to Sunak. Having looked as though he had thrown away his chance of becoming Prime Minister with indecision in January, Rishi Sunak now finds himself alone on the battlefield in October.

    It may yet be the most pyrrhic of victories - I find it hard to see after everything that has happened how the Conservatives can regain any modicum of unity or competence in the eyes of the electorate. Some on here seem to think it'll be easy - I'm far from convinced.

    It is a mountain to climb but I expect Labour are disappointed tonight that Boris is not heading for no 10
    I have it on good authority that the Labour leadership are quite prepared to take on any of them.
    Of course they are.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    Brexit nutters are taking the news well.


    I love the way he still has MEP in his username.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Andy_JS said:

    Commiserations to those who'd backed an election in 2022 or 2023.

    Me.

    I'll take the kicker in exchange for Johnson being out of No 10.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,839

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    ping said:

    Rishi doesn’t need Hunt.

    Rishi may keep him as the public figure of hate, to announce the spending cuts / tax rises, but long term his political career is basically finished.

    Just like it was about two weeks ago, in fact.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Rage, rage against the dying light...


    Michael Fabricant 🇬🇧🇺🇦
    @Mike_Fabricant
    ·
    1h
    #Rishi camp desperately ringing round now to try and get the #Boris supporters.
    Why? He already has his 100+
    Because he knows the odds are if it goes to the Party membership, he probably won’t win. He needs a political coronation.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,053
    MaxPB said:

    Bloke on 5 live from FT says Rishi & Hunt to raise Income Tax to 21p in end of October statement.

    Should make Barthol. Roberts night!!

    As long as it's not on NI I think Barty would probably not mind because income tax is paid on all income rather than just earned income. Everyone is treated fairly with an income tax rise.
    Unlike the special favours rich folk get on CGT and dividends. And the special favours all of us doing ok get on NI levied on income others can’t dream of. Raising income tax rather than going for those areas or non-NI paying pensioners is horrid.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    FF43 said:

    ping said:

    Rishi doesn’t need Hunt.

    Rishi may keep him as the public figure of hate, to announce the spending cuts / tax rises, but long term his political career is basically finished.

    Off-the-wall idea, but how about Steve Baker for CoE? He's a fiscal hawk, which is what is needed right now and keeps the ERG onside but away from ideology.
    If I have one hope from Rishi…. And perhaps this is just me projecting, but…

    Hes in a great position to actually do something about the myriad of tax loopholes, under the cover of the fiscal shitshow.

    He can also, perhaps uniquely, be pressured by the press/labour, due to his background and wealth.

    And because of his wealth, he can’t be bought and doesn’t feel like he owes anything to big money Tory interests.

    I also think he has a certain moralistic bent, a bit like Theresa May.

    That’s my hope, anyway.

    Dave the plumber, Sheila the cleaner, Mike the hairdresser, pay the same tax as Stan the stockbroker.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Glad to see my political analysis is still good enough to make a profit every so often. I knew Boris was bullshitting about the 100 MPs. That he's withdrawn shows he never had the numbers because that 102 figure doesn't get tested in an actual vote. He remains the king over the water in case Rishi fucks up before 2024 this way as well and he also gets to cash in for the best year or so on the lecture circuit to repair his balance sheet.

    True - if Sunak becomes Truss 2.0 (apologies) and crashes and burns later in the winter or the spring, I presume Johnson will throw his hat back into the ring.

    I can't see the Conservative Parliamentary Party having any desire to go through all of this again (let alone the rest of us) and with the "threat of Johnson hanging in the background, Sunak will be safe until the GE. After that, assuming the party is in Opposition, all bets (so to speak) are off.

    I note the Conservative-inclined are already beginning to talk up Sunak as some kind of saviour - the truth is the Government of this country has effectively been paralysed since July and everyone will remember this deranged period of paralysis by self-indulgence and remember who was responsible for it, oddly enough, the first Cabinet Minister to break ranks and begin the process of bringing down Boris Johnson.
    Was he first? I have a memory he was second - a fast follower (don’t remember who was first) - and people criticised him for not having courage of his convictions
    Sajid Javid resigned first.

    But it is not true that everyone will remember that either of them resigned early on in the defenestration of Boris.
  • Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Bollocks
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,053

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Bollocks
    Citation needed. And from someone actually in power.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Andy_JS said:

    "Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Boris would have won members vote - already had a mandate from the people. Rishi and Penny, despite requests from Boris refused to unite which would have made governing utterly impossible.
    Penny actually asked him to step aside for her. It will now be impossible to avoid a GE."

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1584303574061707264

    I guess that translates as "I'm fucking off to the Lords so I couldn't care less that you are all wrong and my hero will always love me"

    By-election watch.

    The resignation honours lists are getting messy, given Johnson's successor resigned before his list could be agreed. Assuming Sunak gets a say, he doesn't owe Dorries anything.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,839

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Ripping up the agreement we signed 3 years ago would put us in that position. And it has far more downside to us than the EU.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Oh dear, rewriting history again William.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Nigelb said:

    This appears to be real. Hit a power line, apparently.

    Russian Su-25 crash view from pilot's perspective
    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584127698913222657

    It's thought to be one from back in June, however - rather than a recent one.
    https://twitter.com/MCantow/status/1584271434750140416
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    On topic, so exactly why cant anyone else, with mere hours to go, get the nominations other than Sunak?

    Off topic, I mentioned at start of the week that the next fortnight would bring notable changes, strategic in nature, in the situation in Ukraine and it wasnt all going to be good news.

    Not to cause people like Leon/Sean to have an anxiety attack but why is the Russian defence minister having calls with US & European counteparts claiming that Ukraine is working to detonate a so called dirty bomb? None of his counterparts seem to buy it. This isnt some crap on Russian TV, this is official conversations between defence ministers.



  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Yeah, but only one side is proceeding to break the treaty with the consequences that flow from that. It's a bit like saying only the West is imposing sanctions on Russia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    On the point about rude language in here, for one expletives are designed for moments of high emotion, and for two, its after the watershed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    So, given a Rishi victory, who will the top team be?

    Presumably Jeremy Hunt at Chancellor. What about the rest?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    FF43 said:

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Yeah, but only one side is proceeding to break the treaty with the consequences that flow from that. It's a bit like saying only the West is imposing sanctions on Russia.
    No, it's nothing like that, but if you want a Ukraine analogy, it would be Putin threatening an actual war in response to Ukraine not implementing the Minsk agreement.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The privileges committee need to find the clown guilty of lying to parliament and end any prospect of him making a return to no 10.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Will Sunak be able to get a deal on the NI protocol through the House? If not would he try a referendum in Ulster?

    The factional politics probably matter more than the substance. People who would have rebelled against Johnson or Truss would be likely to vote for anything put forward by Sunak.
    Surely the ERG would be less likely to accept it coming from Sunak. I'm not suggesting he override the protocol. But the EU is open to change - having lanes for goods exclusively for NI.

    The main point is he needs to stop threatening a trade war. I'm sure there would be a positive market reaction to that.
    The only threats of a trade war have come from the EU side.
    Yeah, but only one side is proceeding to break the treaty with the consequences that flow from that. It's a bit like saying only the West is imposing sanctions on Russia.
    No, it's nothing like that, but if you want a Ukraine analogy, it would be Putin threatening an actual war in response to Ukraine not implementing the Minsk agreement.
    Whatever, it's still a nonsense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Reminder. Boris Johnson seriously wants everyone to believe the moment he took the decision to withdraw was also the moment he “completed the paperwork” on the nominations that would hand him the Premiership.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584285134559547392

    Yep. Not plausible. Why not 6 hours earlier, a day. Nothing had really changed
  • kle4 said:

    Nadhim Zahawi wins the coveted dupe award.

    "Published at 9PM"

    image

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1584275806498344960

    "What's that behind you Nadhim?

    Oh, it's your career!"
    He must be one ditched. Some others kept, but he's shown himself to be king of the fools
    Perhaps but the case for keeping Nadhim Zahawi is that he seems to have been an efficient enough manager, and Whitehall could probably use some quiet competence after the last several years. The same might apply to Alok Sharma.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Starry said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    The 62 MPs who supported the oaf should be removed from parliament for being treasonous scum and sent to Rwanda .

    Rwanda doesn't deserve them.
    Why Rwanda? Remember, it's a perfectly safe forward-thinking country. Hardly a punishment. Sounds quite lovely even.
    Shipping off asylum seekers somewhere else is wrong, I feel. The niceness or not of Rwanda is secondary.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    MattW said:

    So, given a Rishi victory, who will the top team be?

    Presumably Jeremy Hunt at Chancellor. What about the rest?

    Raab and Javid back I would've thought. Unfortunately, the Fireplace Salesman might also expect a reward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    GIN1138 said:

    NEW: Penny Mordaunt is STAYING in the race says a source close to her

    She sees a route to 100 nominations now Johnson is out

    She wants the members to have their say

    Tune in tomorrow to see if she makes the ballot!

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/158428
    493770821632

    Good for her. Hopefully she can stop the tax dodger in his tracks. #PM4PM
    Exactly. Not only tax dodging but "ooohhhh, I forgot I still had a Green Card"

    Sunak is as dodgy as BJ, he's just a lot slicker

    Not as dodgy - needs decades of actions for that. But no harm keeping an eye on him.

    But as noted earlier claiming he's as bad as Boris so vote Boris is an interesting move some made.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Boris's alleged laziness could have done for him again. If he hadn't been lounging around in the Caribbean he might have garnered more support.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    kle4 said:

    Starry said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    The 62 MPs who supported the oaf should be removed from parliament for being treasonous scum and sent to Rwanda .

    Rwanda doesn't deserve them.
    Why Rwanda? Remember, it's a perfectly safe forward-thinking country. Hardly a punishment. Sounds quite lovely even.
    Shipping off asylum seekers somewhere else is wrong, I feel. The niceness or not of Rwanda is secondary.
    How do you feel about compulsory enlistment in the Royal Navy? Anyone undocumented who tries to enter the country gets a job....
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259


    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    ·
    21m
    On Diwali tomorrow.
    @RishiSunak
    looks set to become party leader. As a Hindu, he will be the first British Prime Minister to practice a non-Christian faith

    Carefully defining himself past Disraeli

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,053
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Reminder. Boris Johnson seriously wants everyone to believe the moment he took the decision to withdraw was also the moment he “completed the paperwork” on the nominations that would hand him the Premiership.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584285134559547392

    Yep. Not plausible. Why not 6 hours earlier, a day. Nothing had really changed
    He doesn’t need you or I to believe it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great comments on some of my FB feeds from seething Cons members. Typical of the genre:

    "There is a remainer, globalist coup taking place at the heart of the British government."

    Unpick that puppy.

    Setting aside the endless "remainer" guff, the "globalist" thing they keep going on about is interesting.

    I assume the "globalists" behind this "coup" are the bankers and financiers etc who refused to support their IEA financial shithousery. So domestic and foreign banks and bankers and investors refusing to do whatever the loon right say is a coup. Because England should be able to do what it likes and the rest of the world should just say "thank you".

    English exceptionalism at its best. Do they think we are the US?
    The key phrase is "WEF" which I think is supposed to stand for World Economic Forum but it isn't a huge leap to get to other meanings.
    Really? What are they?
    Genuine question.
    The people who organise Davos. Not sure what else they do

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great comments on some of my FB feeds from seething Cons members. Typical of the genre:

    "There is a remainer, globalist coup taking place at the heart of the British government."

    Unpick that puppy.

    Setting aside the endless "remainer" guff, the "globalist" thing they keep going on about is interesting.

    I assume the "globalists" behind this "coup" are the bankers and financiers etc who refused to support their IEA financial shithousery. So domestic and foreign banks and bankers and investors refusing to do whatever the loon right say is a coup. Because England should be able to do what it likes and the rest of the world should just say "thank you".

    English exceptionalism at its best. Do they think we are the US?
    The key phrase is "WEF" which I think is supposed to stand for World Economic Forum but it isn't a huge leap to get to other meanings.
    Given that the World Economic Forum as far as I know has no formal or informal connections with Israel or Jewishness (forgive me if antisemitism isn't what you're driving at), is every globalist takeover of the world to be ignored because the very concept is considered antisemitic? In which case, would anyone like to take over the world with me? It seems easy if nobody is allowed to say anything about it.
    "Globalism" is a term used by antisemites as a cipher for Judaism. This is well known.

    Nobody's stopping you from talking about it, but in my experience people who do talk about it often have some very vague notion about some Judeo-capitalist conspiracy and are remarkably short on either evidence or even a coherent narrative.
    My advice would be if you really think there is some plot to "take over the world", to identify who specifically you think is behind this, their motives, the means by which you think they hope to achieve this, and the reasons you believe this.

    Falling back on the canard that "nobody's allowed to say anything about it" is begging the question: the idea of enforced silence is part of the conspiracy theory. You are literally assuming some of the contents of the conspiracy theory to try to tell us that the conspiracy theory is credible.
    "Globalism" is also used by the Left in the US to describe the process (as they see it) by which big multinationals ship jobs overseas, to near slavery conditions at the other end. The rich get richer, the poor get screwed and the middle classes squeezed.
  • Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great comments on some of my FB feeds from seething Cons members. Typical of the genre:

    "There is a remainer, globalist coup taking place at the heart of the British government."

    Unpick that puppy.

    Setting aside the endless "remainer" guff, the "globalist" thing they keep going on about is interesting.

    I assume the "globalists" behind this "coup" are the bankers and financiers etc who refused to support their IEA financial shithousery. So domestic and foreign banks and bankers and investors refusing to do whatever the loon right say is a coup. Because England should be able to do what it likes and the rest of the world should just say "thank you".

    English exceptionalism at its best. Do they think we are the US?
    The key phrase is "WEF" which I think is supposed to stand for World Economic Forum but it isn't a huge leap to get to other meanings.
    Given that the World Economic Forum as far as I know has no formal or informal connections with Israel or Jewishness (forgive me if antisemitism isn't what you're driving at), is every globalist takeover of the world to be ignored because the very concept is considered antisemitic? In which case, would anyone like to take over the world with me? It seems easy if nobody is allowed to say anything about it.
    "Globalism" is a term used by antisemites as a cipher for Judaism. This is well known.

    Nobody's stopping you from talking about it, but in my experience people who do talk about it often have some very vague notion about some Judeo-capitalist conspiracy and are remarkably short on either evidence or even a coherent narrative.
    My advice would be if you really think there is some plot to "take over the world", to identify who specifically you think is behind this, their motives, the means by which you think they hope to achieve this, and the reasons you believe this.

    Falling back on the canard that "nobody's allowed to say anything about it" is begging the question: the idea of enforced silence is part of the conspiracy theory. You are literally assuming some of the contents of the conspiracy theory to try to tell us that the conspiracy theory is credible.
    Actually it isn't (the Jewish bit I mean). At least not anyone who isn't 101 years old.

    The anti-globalist, anti-WEF, anti-Bill Gates lot are complete nutters but it is not based on antisemitism. The world (at least theirs) has moved on from any of that long ago. It is a massively complex and tightly drawn conspiracy delusion which has little place for anything as simple or crass as antisemitism.

    As Topping mentions it involves the idea of The Great Reset, of the Covid pandemic being a cover for massive population reduction, of Blackrock buying up all the property in America and owning almost all the businesses in the world, of contrails being chemicals sprayed over us for some unknown but nefarious reason, of Bill Gates owning all the means of food production and making us eat insects and of the move to electric cars and smart meters being all part of an ambition to remove the ability for people to do anything without the Governments permission.

    If it has any racial component, it is most often directed at the Chinese. Indeed, Israel is often seen as the last standout hope against this Globalisation. No idea why exactly except for the fact they are seen as opponents of various Islamic countries who are swept up in this great delusion.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    biggles said:

    Still no one on here understands that Boris remains genuinely popular with a certain vote the Tories otherwise won’t get. Not wanting him as PM (I don’t either), or disliking him, shouldn’t stop you from understanding his appeal to others.

    biggles said:

    Still no one on here understands that Boris remains genuinely popular with a certain vote the Tories otherwise won’t get. Not wanting him as PM (I don’t either), or disliking him, shouldn’t stop you from understanding his appeal to others.

    Plenty of people understand that. It's part of why he did so well, it's not nothing.

    But people feel his flaws eclipsed that in the end, as did most MPs. That is not ignoring or understanding his appeal.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ping said:

    JohnO said:

    Bearing in mind (rightly) Sunak's huge wealth and privilege, I think he and Hunt will tread very carefully on public expenditure reductions, and will deliberately target the wealthy - individuals and corporates - in tax increases. Top rate (temporarily) raised back to 50%?

    CGT = Income Tax?

    Perhaps higher rate tax relief on pensions gone?

    On Oct 31 he could well slaughter some sacred cows…

    (Expect that metaphor to be used a fair bit by journos!)
    HYUFD said:


    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    ·
    21m
    On Diwali tomorrow.
    @RishiSunak
    looks set to become party leader. As a Hindu, he will be the first British Prime Minister to practice a non-Christian faith

    He went to a Christian foundation school however, Winchester college, founded by a former Bishop of Winchester
    There was nothing former about it. But anyway he was primarily a successful politician, Christianity and bishoprics was just a side hustle.
    Being a bishop enabled him to collect rent from brothels in Southwark.

    The concept of "politician" is completely anachronistic here.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    ydoethur said:

    Was there ever a man with such extraordinary luck as Sunak? Raised to the top of the Cabinet on the fly because he wasn't anathema to an obnoxious certifiable lunatic with shocking judgement and a raging egomania. Elevated to demigod status by his free money during the pandemic. Able to dodge all sorts of questions about his wealth, his breaches of COVID law and tax status because they were totally overshadowed by the crimes of Johnson and many civil servants who couldn't shop him without destroying themselves. Brings down a PM and as a result looks set to lose the prize, only for the person who beat him to cock up on a truly epic scale a bare month into her premiership and having to resign. And then finally, when even then he might have lost the prize, a totally discredited figure with no support anywhere except among a few of the dimmer Tory members whips up a massive head of steam before imploding again, blocking any serious challenge and handing him the leadership nem con.

    That's just amazing.

    I do hope his luck hasn't deserted him, because
    we all need it to last just a bit longer...

    All good politicians need luck, but they also need to be able to forge opportunity from adversity. He has both. I'm glad he will be PM because he isn't a moral degenerate like so many of the recent government ministers.

    He inherits a horrible mess and will have to do really unpopular things. But he will do it with competence and compassion which will be a major change to recent iterations of the Tory government.
    "Compassion" Haha, he'll fuck the poor over royally.

    I'm saving this post for 12 months time. Sunak will p1ss over those in need.

    He will. But as his chancellor has been saying all week, he will not be happy about it. Whereas the Truss wing of the party literally sneers at the poor and belittles them - "get a better job" and "learn to cook"
    Are you kidding? Of course he will be happy about it or, at least, couldn't give a toss. This whole idea Rishi is someone who genuinely cares about the poor is a joke. Look at what he said when he was younger. He really doesn't give a f*ck about anyone who can't help him.
    Rishi is a combination of Lord Snooty and Kenneth Widmerpool.

    I wish him well (the country needs a period of stability) but I have pretty modest hopes.

    I have a more pithy description, one that consists of four letters beginning with a 'c' and ending within a 't'.
    Careful
    Cart!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:

    Starry said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    The 62 MPs who supported the oaf should be removed from parliament for being treasonous scum and sent to Rwanda .

    Rwanda doesn't deserve them.
    Why Rwanda? Remember, it's a perfectly safe forward-thinking country. Hardly a punishment. Sounds quite lovely even.
    Shipping off asylum seekers somewhere else is wrong, I feel. The niceness or not of Rwanda is secondary.
    Agree with your main point but I think not-niceness of Rwanda is a necessary feature. Otherwise there would be no deterrent effect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    dixiedean said:

    The loss of Boris hastens the end of Tory rule.
    And not well before time either.

    It was already happening. At least now it should not burn the house down completely on the way out whilst leaving an unpleasant smell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    MattW said:

    So, given a Rishi victory, who will the top team be?

    Presumably Jeremy Hunt at Chancellor. What about the rest?

    Raab and Javid back I would've thought. Unfortunately, the Fireplace Salesman might also expect a reward.
    Defo Raab. He's played a blinder on all this. Complete and fulsome support to the point of abuse of the enemy in order to support Sunak.

    A lot of crap to be slung out from today's Cabinet.

    Berry, Mogg, Heaton, Morton, Philp, Lewis.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited October 2022
    I find much of the reporting of this absolutely extraordinary.

    It's the indulgence of Johnson involved in saying it's hard to say if he'd got 100 MPs or not.

    In reality, it's an obvious, massive lie. It's laughably false, and not even the most enthusiastic of Johnson cheerleaders really believes anything else. So why not just say it?

    It's treated as balance to treat utter, transparent bullsh1t as simply an alternative explanation of events. But it just isn't.

    And the lie matters. It's one Johnson doesn't need to tell at all. He could have just saidm "I didn't manage to attract sufficient support". Politicians sometimes lose - that's fine and everyone understands. But he had to lie... it's a serious psychological problem that makes him totally unsuitable for high office in future, and it's repeatedly glossed over.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259


    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    ·
    11m
    1/ Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and the great vaccine roll-out.

    He led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced, and then took on Putin and his barbaric war in Ukraine.

    We will always be grateful to him for that.
    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    2/ Although he has decided not to run for PM again, I truly hope he continues to contribute to public life at home and abroad.

    Good start.

    Mendacious bullshit, of course, but necessary and appropriate

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Boris's alleged laziness could have done for him again. If he hadn't been lounging around in the Caribbean he might have garnered more support.

    No, enough MPs saw sense. Johnson was so divisive he would have driven the Conservative Party into oblivion.

    I suspect the circus around his return reminded waverers of his utter halfwittery and unsuitability for any role outside TV game shows and writing nonsensical short fictional commentaries for the Telegraph and Spectator.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Reminder. Boris Johnson seriously wants everyone to believe the moment he took the decision to withdraw was also the moment he “completed the paperwork” on the nominations that would hand him the Premiership.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584285134559547392

    Yep. Not plausible. Why not 6 hours earlier, a day. Nothing had really changed
    He doesn’t need you or I to believe it.
    But who does he think will believe it? The sort of people who wouldn't need him to fib about it as they'd not care.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited October 2022
    If I were Rishi I would be tempted to keep the Cabinet almost entirely untouched, for the moment.

    Reshuffles are another form of instability, and ministers need to get on with their jobs.

    One reason for Cameron’s relative success is that he mostly got this.

    The only change I’d want to make really is Mordaunt in at the Foreign Office, with Cleverly offered BEIS perhaps in compensation. Rees-Mogg is incredibly toxic and probably needs to go immediately.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    Nadhim Zahawi wins the coveted dupe award.

    "Published at 9PM"

    image

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1584275806498344960

    "What's that behind you Nadhim?

    Oh, it's your career!"
    He must be one ditched. Some others kept, but he's shown himself to be king of the fools
    Perhaps but the case for keeping Nadhim Zahawi is that he seems to have been an efficient enough manager, and Whitehall could probably use some quiet competence after the last several years. The same might apply to Alok Sharma.
    There are over 350 Tory MPs, I'm sure a decent manager can be found.
  • Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great comments on some of my FB feeds from seething Cons members. Typical of the genre:

    "There is a remainer, globalist coup taking place at the heart of the British government."

    Unpick that puppy.

    Setting aside the endless "remainer" guff, the "globalist" thing they keep going on about is interesting.

    I assume the "globalists" behind this "coup" are the bankers and financiers etc who refused to support their IEA financial shithousery. So domestic and foreign banks and bankers and investors refusing to do whatever the loon right say is a coup. Because England should be able to do what it likes and the rest of the world should just say "thank you".

    English exceptionalism at its best. Do they think we are the US?
    The key phrase is "WEF" which I think is supposed to stand for World Economic Forum but it isn't a huge leap to get to other meanings.
    Given that the World Economic Forum as far as I know has no formal or informal connections with Israel or Jewishness (forgive me if antisemitism isn't what you're driving at), is every globalist takeover of the world to be ignored because the very concept is considered antisemitic? In which case, would anyone like to take over the world with me? It seems easy if nobody is allowed to say anything about it.
    "Globalism" is a term used by antisemites as a cipher for Judaism. This is well known.

    Nobody's stopping you from talking about it, but in my experience people who do talk about it often have some very vague notion about some Judeo-capitalist conspiracy and are remarkably short on either evidence or even a coherent narrative.
    My advice would be if you really think there is some plot to "take over the world", to identify who specifically you think is behind this, their motives, the means by which you think they hope to achieve this, and the reasons you believe this.

    Falling back on the canard that "nobody's allowed to say anything about it" is begging the question: the idea of enforced silence is part of the conspiracy theory. You are literally assuming some of the contents of the conspiracy theory to try to tell us that the conspiracy theory is credible.
    "Globalism" is also used by the Left in the US to describe the process (as they see it) by which big multinationals ship jobs overseas, to near slavery conditions at the other end. The rich get richer, the poor get screwed and the middle classes squeezed.
    Yep and on that basis I think I would class myself as anti-globalist. But without any of the conspiracy garbage. It is a rather selfish and parochial view I accept, but I don't think the growth of the global markets have helped Western populations overall. It has made a lot of people very rich but at the cost of reducing the living standards and future prospects for workers in the US and Europe. I am not convinced that GDP in its raw form is a great measure of progress for a country. At least not for a European country.

    None of this requires great conspiracies. Just as the argument between left and right, statism and individuality, progresses without any need for conspiracies or evil cabals. It is just questioning whether the generally accepted trajectory of Western economies over the last 5 decades have been to the long term benefit of their citizens.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2022
    ..


    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    ·
    11m
    1/ Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and the great vaccine roll-out.

    He led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced, and then took on Putin and his barbaric war in Ukraine.

    We will always be grateful to him for that.
    Rishi Sunak
    @RishiSunak
    2/ Although he has decided not to run for PM again, I truly hope he continues to contribute to public life at home and abroad.

    Moving on to LIz Truss, Rishi Sunak praised his predecessor for overseeing the death of the Queen. " We will always be grateful to her for that."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Rishi should be able to have a politically diverse team because they actually have very little choice about what to do, most options are shit as we are up the creek, so little point moaning about most policy decisions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MattW said:

    So, given a Rishi victory, who will the top team be?

    Presumably Jeremy Hunt at Chancellor. What about the rest?

    Maybe Mordaunt becomes Foreign Sec.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    If I were Rishi I would be tempted to keep the Cabinet almost entirely untouched, for the moment.

    Reshuffles are another form of instability, and ministers need to get on with their jobs.

    One reason for Cameron’s relative success is that he mostly got this.

    The only change I’d want to make really is Mordaunt in at the Foreign Office, with Cleverly offered BEIS perhaps in compensation. Rees-Mogg is incredibly toxic and probably needs to go immediately.

    He needs someone competent at Health. Is Therese Coffey any good?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I do love the Boris statement though. It really is just "I would have won, but the others would not just let me win easily and pull out".
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