The Trussite age is over - this is the dawning of the age of Sunakism.
Apparently, as Boris Johnson begins to discover the mystique, the glamour, the "X" factor which he had in spades as Mayor of London and in the first days of becoming Prime Minister has deserted him.
Oddly enough, the fates have been quite capricious - eight years in a non-job and then three years working his way to the very top to be brought down by a microscopic virus and his own fundamental character flaws.
There seem to be those who presumably loathe Sunak with a healthy passion and see no future for themselves in his administration and those who still think Johnson can connect with the electorate in a way no other Conservative can. That was undeniably true once but too much water (or beer) has flowed under too many bridges for that to be the case.
There are those in the electorate who still love "good old Boris" and probably always will just as there are those who claim our last decent Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher (no one ever says Blair or Cameron).
Sunak doesn't have Boris's charisma - he doesn't seem wholly comfortable with the electorate - and probably doesn't even have Starmer's in truth. Will he be able to allow his Chancellor to run economic policy or will he want to run it out of No.10? I see his new "friends" are pitching round trying to get jobs in the new era (as it ever was).
Those Conservatives with time on their side might consider what Sunak's future will be if the Party is comprehensively defeated at the next GE. Sunak himself will survive but will he want to stay on as LOTO? Seems implausible. Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch look well placed to survive all but the most extreme defeats and I suspect the next contest will be between them (not that, beyond it being a betting opportunity, anyone will care that much).
Unless Boris holds his seat and runs for Leader of the Opposition.
Tugendhat likely stands as the Moderates candidate and Mordaunt might run again too
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Anyone who was minded to throw off the yoke of the English but declined to do so because they wanted to stay under the yoke of the EU has severe issues. Getting out of the EU is a two for one deal for anyone truly interested in 'independence'.
Thanks. I am disappointed with your conclusion - and, quite frankly, I think many Conservatives would agree with your list of caveats - and I just hope you keep an open-mind.
I really don't think you're really that big a fan of Labour.
For sure, I'm certainly not a fan of Labour. I don't think a Labour or Labour-led government under Starmer will be a good government, and I could easily give you a list of their policies which I think are completely daft (and that's without even factoring things Starmer hasn't committed to but his party would like). It's just that, at the moment, they are the the more grown-up of the two.
Of course, I hope that the apparently imminent election of Rishi marks the beginning of a wider move in the party back to what it should be. But I think it will take a long time, and a long time in opposition, before it gets there.
I think Boris saying he just had to get to 100 nominations and members would do the right thing earlier today has been fatal for him getting further MP support.
The "we have the 100 MPs" claim was pretty damaging full stop. It was a reminder to those with poor short term memories that Johnson remains the same fundamentally dishonest, blustering bullsh1tter who they kicked out in the summer.
The Trussite age is over - this is the dawning of the age of Sunakism.
Apparently, as Boris Johnson begins to discover the mystique, the glamour, the "X" factor which he had in spades as Mayor of London and in the first days of becoming Prime Minister has deserted him.
Oddly enough, the fates have been quite capricious - eight years in a non-job and then three years working his way to the very top to be brought down by a microscopic virus and his own fundamental character flaws.
There seem to be those who presumably loathe Sunak with a healthy passion and see no future for themselves in his administration and those who still think Johnson can connect with the electorate in a way no other Conservative can. That was undeniably true once but too much water (or beer) has flowed under too many bridges for that to be the case.
There are those in the electorate who still love "good old Boris" and probably always will just as there are those who claim our last decent Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher (no one ever says Blair or Cameron).
Sunak doesn't have Boris's charisma - he doesn't seem wholly comfortable with the electorate - and probably doesn't even have Starmer's in truth. Will he be able to allow his Chancellor to run economic policy or will he want to run it out of No.10? I see his new "friends" are pitching round trying to get jobs in the new era (as it ever was).
Those Conservatives with time on their side might consider what Sunak's future will be if the Party is comprehensively defeated at the next GE. Sunak himself will survive but will he want to stay on as LOTO? Seems implausible. Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch look well placed to survive all but the most extreme defeats and I suspect the next contest will be between them (not that, beyond it being a betting opportunity, anyone will care that much).
Sunak’s future will depend both a) when the next GE is and b) the scale of the defeat.
I can plausibly see a scenario, if the GE takes place next year and Sunak manages to save 200-220 seats or so, that he could stay on as LOTO if he wanted to. Not enough time to bed in but he steadied the ship etc.
However if he stays in post for 2 years or so I suspect enough water will have passed under the bridge that a GE defeat will be considered more as a verdict on his own leadership and therefore he will have to own it more and stand down.
In both instances if the defeat is very heavy he will be gone.
For what it’s worth I think the next GE is less than a year away.
To be honest, Steve Baker interests me, for two reasons, he interviews so well, quite a brilliant communicator. But he also knows his mind - he describes himself as Free Market Left, and if he wishes to expand on what that means anytime I would be keen to listen.
Compare and contrast Steve Baker so strong on media rounds this weekend with Penny Mourdant’s latest car crash interview. I am saying the differential between them is Steve Baker knows his mind, to answer questions he goes straight to that, out comes confident clear answers, Mourdant turns to a lot of empty space where there are no answers.
I’m not making an ideological point, the point I am making is politics works best, and more honestly, when politicians and parties have a clear ethos, and they just want to honestly talk about it and explain it.
Yes, this is why Corbyn did better than expected in 2017. The problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. Their thoughts are clear and easy to express because they can't engage with the complexity of the real world. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp. Johnson is nuts too of course, in a different way. He deals with the complexity of the world by believing in nothing except his own advancement, and simply tells people what they want to hear. This turns out to be a surprisingly successful strategy in the right hands. I suspect Sunak is not nuts but will struggle to get a hearing from the electorate. The Tories will get a bounce because he is an improvement on Truss. But I think they'd be better off choosing Johnson again. They're screwed whatever, anyway.
“problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.”
Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.
A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?
I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.
Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Anyone who was minded to throw off the yoke of the English but declined to do so because they wanted to stay under the yoke of the EU has severe issues. Getting out of the EU is a two for one deal for anyone truly interested in 'independence'.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Apart from English voters who make up 80% plus of the population and elect a similar proportion of members who make up the parliament of this unitary state voting for parties with it as a policy. Of course as with English devolution and parliaments and the like they’d rather do the victimy put upon thing.
Who would rather do the victimy put upon thing?
People who whine about devolution being ‘given’ to the provinces and the lack of an equivalent English parliament, not a small cohort, even on here.
Yes, the "they've got one, so why can't we? ... so unfair!" strand of sentiment. Has certainly been spotted.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Do you have data to support that contention?
It was there at the time , it was EU citizens and English voters that made it but I don't want to spend forever searching for 8 yea rold data
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Do you have data to support that contention?
It was there at the time , it was EU citizens and English voters that made it but I don't want to spend forever searching for 8 yea rold data
Of course nobody asked Scots living outside Scotland but still residing in their actual country, ie the UK.
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
Still more seats than the less than 50 they were heading for with Truss
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony as MalcG claimed, which it isn't
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Mullin is an ex-MP, and was on the left even when he was an MP.
Please don’t follow the PB Tories into random whataboutery.
He's been out of Parliament well over a decade and isn't really relevant (although I rather like him - his "A View from the Foothills" and others in his series of diaries are very readable and I recommend them).
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Do you have data to support that contention?
Data for Born UK but not Scotland
Born elsewhere in the UK
The third strongest correlation of the observed variables was between the proportion of the population born in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and the ‘Yes’ vote. Areas with a high proportion of people born elsewhere in the UK demonstrated the weakest support for ‘Yes’. In the case of the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway – the two LAs that share a border with England – this seems fairly intuitive. One might expect a higher concentration of people born elsewhere in the UK in these areas due to the close proximity to England, as well as a stronger desire to remain within the UK due to the social and economic ties such proximity brings. Interestingly, it is the urban areas in the centre of the country that have the lowest share of English, Welsh or Northern Irish and the highest support for ‘Yes’. Even in those central areas where a majority voted for ‘No’ such as North and East Ayrshire, the result was closer than the average (a difference of 2 and 5 points, respectively).
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Mullin is an ex-MP, and was on the left even when he was an MP.
Please don’t follow the PB Tories into random whataboutery.
I am, of course, using the opportunity to make a general point. I welcome the prospect of the return of Labour (I mean, given the current shambles, I expect that most of us would,) but I've serious concerns that the policy prescriptions they ultimately advance might do our sick patient of a country at least as much harm as good.
We are going to get precisely nowhere until we deal properly with the funnelling of an ever-greater share of national wealth into unproductive piles of bricks and, via both that and the triple lock, into the pockets of equally unproductive old people. But old people account for a massive and increasing share of the electorate, and they vote religiously.
The biggest threat to the economy and future prosperity of the nation is not, therefore, Brexit, or the Ukrainian situation, or Tory maladministration. It's Britain turning into a gerontocracy - if it isn't there already.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Sunak’s future will depend both a) when the next GE is and b) the scale of the defeat.
I can plausibly see a scenario, if the GE takes place next year and Sunak manages to save 200-220 seats or so, that he could stay on as LOTO if he wanted to. Not enough time to bed in but he steadied the ship etc.
However if he stays in post for 2 years or so I suspect enough water will have passed under the bridge that a GE defeat will be considered more as a verdict on his own leadership and therefore he will have to own it more and stand down.
In both instances if the defeat is very heavy he will be gone.
For what it’s worth I think the next GE is less than a year away.
Defeat usually means the end for a Prime Minister. One exception was Harold Wilson who lost in 1970 and got back in 1974 - Attlee fought the 1955 election after losing in 1951 and lost again.
I'll leave someone else to tell me the last Conservative Prime Minister other than WSC who lost an election and then served as LOTO and was still leader at the next election. Churchill lost in 1945 and 1950 and won in 1951 though, like Sunak, he became Prime Minister without winning an election.
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
I wonder if we might see a reverse ferret of the campaign soon - i.e a Boris to Rishi switcher.
Wallace (who I appreciate did not definitively say he would back Boris but who is on Guido’s spreadsheet as a backer (go figure)) would be a very significant one.
The Trussite age is over - this is the dawning of the age of Sunakism.
Apparently, as Boris Johnson begins to discover the mystique, the glamour, the "X" factor which he had in spades as Mayor of London and in the first days of becoming Prime Minister has deserted him.
Oddly enough, the fates have been quite capricious - eight years in a non-job and then three years working his way to the very top to be brought down by a microscopic virus and his own fundamental character flaws.
There seem to be those who presumably loathe Sunak with a healthy passion and see no future for themselves in his administration and those who still think Johnson can connect with the electorate in a way no other Conservative can. That was undeniably true once but too much water (or beer) has flowed under too many bridges for that to be the case.
There are those in the electorate who still love "good old Boris" and probably always will just as there are those who claim our last decent Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher (no one ever says Blair or Cameron).
Sunak doesn't have Boris's charisma - he doesn't seem wholly comfortable with the electorate - and probably doesn't even have Starmer's in truth. Will he be able to allow his Chancellor to run economic policy or will he want to run it out of No.10? I see his new "friends" are pitching round trying to get jobs in the new era (as it ever was).
Those Conservatives with time on their side might consider what Sunak's future will be if the Party is comprehensively defeated at the next GE. Sunak himself will survive but will he want to stay on as LOTO? Seems implausible. Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch look well placed to survive all but the most extreme defeats and I suspect the next contest will be between them (not that, beyond it being a betting opportunity, anyone will care that much).
Unless Boris holds his seat and runs for Leader of the Opposition.
Tugendhat likely stands as the Moderates candidate and Mordaunt might run again too
Next Con leader market will be made much more interesting with the will they/wont they hold their seat calculation to consider.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Mullin is an ex-MP, and was on the left even when he was an MP.
Please don’t follow the PB Tories into random whataboutery.
I am, of course, using the opportunity to make a general point. I welcome the prospect of the return of Labour (I mean, given the current shambles, I expect that most of us would,) but I've serious concerns that the policy prescriptions they ultimately advance might do our sick patient of a country at least as much harm as good.
We are going to get precisely nowhere until we deal properly with the funnelling of an ever-greater share of national wealth into unproductive piles of bricks and, via both that and the triple lock, into the pockets of equally unproductive old people. But old people account for a massive and increasing share of the electorate, and they vote religiously.
The biggest threat to the economy and future prosperity of the nation is not, therefore, Brexit, or the Ukrainian situation, or Tory maladministration. It's Britain turning into a gerontocracy - if it isn't there already.
I agree. But you have to be fair about Labour.
I’d like to hear Nabavi’s list of issues, because my general impression is that Reeves is very sound. Starmer, on the other hand, doesn’t do economics. He’s essentially a rather dull, triangulating technocrat, albeit with a conviction that the country has been run for the rich for too long.
Sunak’s future will depend both a) when the next GE is and b) the scale of the defeat.
I can plausibly see a scenario, if the GE takes place next year and Sunak manages to save 200-220 seats or so, that he could stay on as LOTO if he wanted to. Not enough time to bed in but he steadied the ship etc.
However if he stays in post for 2 years or so I suspect enough water will have passed under the bridge that a GE defeat will be considered more as a verdict on his own leadership and therefore he will have to own it more and stand down.
In both instances if the defeat is very heavy he will be gone.
For what it’s worth I think the next GE is less than a year away.
Defeat usually means the end for a Prime Minister. One exception was Harold Wilson who lost in 1970 and got back in 1974 - Attlee fought the 1955 election after losing in 1951 and lost again.
I'll leave someone else to tell me the last Conservative Prime Minister other than WSC who lost an election and then served as LOTO and was still leader at the next election. Churchill lost in 1945 and 1950 and won in 1951 though, like Sunak, he became Prime Minister without winning an election.
I think it might be Baldwin....
I agree it normally does mean resignation. I think you might see a different result here, if the defeat is not as dire as projected, but there are of course “events” to come.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
Oh dear. One hopes that this didn't result in a sticky keyboard episode.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
Nope, if you were a colony Holyrood would be scrapped and all Scottish domestic policy legislated for from a Westminster from which all Scottish MPs would be expelled. Nationalist leaders would be arrested for sedition against the UK state too.
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
Still more seats than the less than 50 they were heading for with Truss
Or the 3 seats for a Penny Mordaunt-led Party according to Redfield & Wilton.
Said three seats would be Castle Point, Louth & Horncastle and South Holland & The Deepings on current boundaries (on the 2023 boundaries, the Conservatives win just one seat).The Labour majority of 484 would be comparable to the 1931 National Government landslide. To be fair, Labour were back 14 years later.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Do you have data to support that contention?
It was there at the time , it was EU citizens and English voters that made it but I don't want to spend forever searching for 8 yea rold data
So that’ll be a no then
@malcolmg ’s “trust me” is almost as convincing as BoJo.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
The Trussite age is over - this is the dawning of the age of Sunakism.
Apparently, as Boris Johnson begins to discover the mystique, the glamour, the "X" factor which he had in spades as Mayor of London and in the first days of becoming Prime Minister has deserted him.
Oddly enough, the fates have been quite capricious - eight years in a non-job and then three years working his way to the very top to be brought down by a microscopic virus and his own fundamental character flaws.
There seem to be those who presumably loathe Sunak with a healthy passion and see no future for themselves in his administration and those who still think Johnson can connect with the electorate in a way no other Conservative can. That was undeniably true once but too much water (or beer) has flowed under too many bridges for that to be the case.
There are those in the electorate who still love "good old Boris" and probably always will just as there are those who claim our last decent Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher (no one ever says Blair or Cameron).
Sunak doesn't have Boris's charisma - he doesn't seem wholly comfortable with the electorate - and probably doesn't even have Starmer's in truth. Will he be able to allow his Chancellor to run economic policy or will he want to run it out of No.10? I see his new "friends" are pitching round trying to get jobs in the new era (as it ever was).
Those Conservatives with time on their side might consider what Sunak's future will be if the Party is comprehensively defeated at the next GE. Sunak himself will survive but will he want to stay on as LOTO? Seems implausible. Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch look well placed to survive all but the most extreme defeats and I suspect the next contest will be between them (not that, beyond it being a betting opportunity, anyone will care that much).
Unless Boris holds his seat and runs for Leader of the Opposition.
Tugendhat likely stands as the Moderates candidate and Mordaunt might run again too
Next Con leader market will be made much more interesting with the will they/wont they hold their seat calculation to consider.
I think a Johnson chicken run is coming.
Actually, "chicken run" is such a loaded phrase. So I'll say I suspect we'll shortly discover the hitherto hidden truth about Johnson's deep and lasting affinity with the wonderful county and people of Lincolnshire.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
It was Turbotubs
A second suspect! The plot thickens...
Not guilty your honour. I think. Maybe. I wont do it again…
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Given you are prone to despair I don't think you should extend it to the very hypothetical policies of an unknown future Labour government.
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
Lots of Red Wall voters are in that category. Not enough to actually keep the seats Tory though.
I also note the Mail refers constantly to "Miss Mordaunt" and "Miss Truss" in their coverage.
I find that incredibly patronising - I'm not sure why. I also thought Liz Truss was married but chose to keep her maiden name as is her right.
I assume the Mail think their readers wouldn't approve of an unmarried woman as Prime Minister - I don't believe anyone's marital status is related to their competence or incompetence to be Prime Minister.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Apart from English voters who make up 80% plus of the population and elect a similar proportion of members who make up the parliament of this unitary state voting for parties with it as a policy. Of course as with English devolution and parliaments and the like they’d rather do the victimy put upon thing.
I agree that there is a flaw here - if there was a English majority in HoC for an English parliament, that would get passed straight away. While the same sort of constitutional change is denied to Scotland by HoC.
Fundamentally there should be a second independence referendum while the SNP/Greens continue to get these kind of vote shares. The only question is how frequently they should happen give A) The resources/energy for them The unidirectional nature of an in/out ref
Should be the same amount of times they win a mandate for it should they so wish. That is democracy. If more than 50% of Scottish politicians are for independence then they should be able to have a vote on it. UK is undemocratic.
100% agree. It’s for Scots to decide if a party pushing referendums every time is taking the piss if it loses. But frankly, as an Englishman, it’s none of my business.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Mullin is an ex-MP, and was on the left even when he was an MP.
Please don’t follow the PB Tories into random whataboutery.
I am, of course, using the opportunity to make a general point. I welcome the prospect of the return of Labour (I mean, given the current shambles, I expect that most of us would,) but I've serious concerns that the policy prescriptions they ultimately advance might do our sick patient of a country at least as much harm as good.
We are going to get precisely nowhere until we deal properly with the funnelling of an ever-greater share of national wealth into unproductive piles of bricks and, via both that and the triple lock, into the pockets of equally unproductive old people. But old people account for a massive and increasing share of the electorate, and they vote religiously.
The biggest threat to the economy and future prosperity of the nation is not, therefore, Brexit, or the Ukrainian situation, or Tory maladministration. It's Britain turning into a gerontocracy - if it isn't there already.
I agree. But you have to be fair about Labour.
I’d like to hear Nabavi’s list of issues, because my general impression is that Reeves is very sound. Starmer, on the other hand, doesn’t do economics. He’s essentially a rather dull, triangulating technocrat, albeit with a conviction that the country has been run for the rich for too long.
But he’s not wrong about that.
Point taken. I am catastrophizing, when we have not seen the Labour manifesto for the next election and it may not appear for another couple of years, of course.
We'll know their priorities the second it drops, of course, by setting aside headline grabbing initiatives on devolution, green energy and the like, and addressing two fundamental questions: is the triple lock to be maintained? And will they decline to significantly raise taxation on property and inheritances? If the answer to both those questions is "yes," then all that Labour will be doing, fundamentally, is promising to manage the current failed economic settlement less incompetently, and decline will continue.
This, as far as I recall, was never done for his previous leadership contest spreadsheet and many of us have suspected was a way of ramping Boris’ support to show him out in the lead at the start of the contest.
The problem is it’s now a full 16 names. If you look at BoJo’s named nominations hes only got a declared support of 60.
So when assessing his chances you’ve got to try and work out how much those extra 16 are genuine backers or not.
My prediction - there may be a handful in that boat but I am far from convinced it’s anywhere near 16.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Your arse they can have a vote any time they want as well, is your brain that addled given the amount of comment you spouted on leaving the EU. FFS at least try to pretend you are not totally ignorant. England wanted out and voted on it, Scotland did not but were dragged out anyway. It is a treaty same as we chucked with EU.
The treaty was between the UK and the EU and the Uk decided to leave.
Scotland had previously voted to remain part of the UK
Yes based on it being the only way to stay in the EU....DOH
Do you have data to support that contention?
It was there at the time , it was EU citizens and English voters that made it but I don't want to spend forever searching for 8 yea rold data
So that’ll be a no then
@malcolmg ’s “trust me” is almost as convincing as BoJo.
I sent you the UK evidence, though by the sounds of it you are Jingo Jim and not really interested in data just your bias. Disprove the theory then smartarse.
This, as far as I recall, was never done for his previous leadership contest spreadsheet and many of us have suspected was a way of ramping Boris’ support to show him out in the lead at the start of the contest.
The problem is it’s now a full 16 names. If you look at BoJo’s named nominations hes only got a declared support of 60.
So when assessing his chances you’ve got to try and work out how much those extra 16 are genuine backers or not.
My prediction - there may be a handful in that boat but I am far from convinced it’s anywhere near 16.
If you remove them Boris needs 2 nominations per hour for the next 20 hours until nominations close - including all through the night - and no row back of his existing support.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Mullin is an ex-MP, and was on the left even when he was an MP.
Please don’t follow the PB Tories into random whataboutery.
I am, of course, using the opportunity to make a general point. I welcome the prospect of the return of Labour (I mean, given the current shambles, I expect that most of us would,) but I've serious concerns that the policy prescriptions they ultimately advance might do our sick patient of a country at least as much harm as good.
We are going to get precisely nowhere until we deal properly with the funnelling of an ever-greater share of national wealth into unproductive piles of bricks and, via both that and the triple lock, into the pockets of equally unproductive old people. But old people account for a massive and increasing share of the electorate, and they vote religiously.
The biggest threat to the economy and future prosperity of the nation is not, therefore, Brexit, or the Ukrainian situation, or Tory maladministration. It's Britain turning into a gerontocracy - if it isn't there already.
Property taxes (at least stamp duty and its equivalents, Council Tax & its banding) are devolved.
I agree CGT on property sales is not devolved, but could not the devolved Parliaments introduce their own property sales taxes?
So, Labour (& the SNP) could actually take action now.
Labour are consulting on (i) extra bands at the top of the Council Tax, and (ii) removing the single person's discount at the moment in Wales. It will be interesting to see what they do. My guess is they'll bottle it. I think for the changes to have any effect, they will produce too many losers & they will take fright.
And also, most politicians -- even left-wing ones -- own property portfolios, so they are conflicted.
For example, I was slightly gobsmacked when Drakeford and Price admitted how much property they had.
E.g., Mr Price said he had both a home in his constituency of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, and Cardiff. Mr Price's register of interests says his partner, who is a judge, has two rental properties in London. His register of interests for the previous Senedd (from 2016 to 2021) said he had also owned a residential property in London but that has now ceased.
Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll
Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.
The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.
A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.
Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.
The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.
SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.
Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.
If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.
Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.
Fixed that for you.
If the SC rule out an indyref2 without UK government approval and Sturgeon rules out UDI than Salmond could be Farage to Sturgeon's May and split the Nationalist vote, then allowing SLab to gain more SNP Westminster seats
What chance an English court not ruling in England's favour...... ZERO
English court? Surely not. Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. Last court for England, Wales, NI and Scotland.
It is an English court , fudged to do down our legal system. Court of Session was and still should be the highest court in Scotland. 4 out of the 5 judges in this case are English , and in my mind a kangaroo court.
Your mind making it so doesnt mean it is so.
The case looks like a very technical legal dispute, hinging on precise definitions and procedural steps - yes the politics behind it all is bitter but i doubt sleep will be lost if they say 'this is not for us right now'.
It is a treaty of union , so either party can leave, if not then Scotland is a colony, pretty simple.
There's no mechanism for England to leave either.
Apart from English voters who make up 80% plus of the population and elect a similar proportion of members who make up the parliament of this unitary state voting for parties with it as a policy. Of course as with English devolution and parliaments and the like they’d rather do the victimy put upon thing.
I agree that there is a flaw here - if there was a English majority in HoC for an English parliament, that would get passed straight away. While the same sort of constitutional change is denied to Scotland by HoC.
Fundamentally there should be a second independence referendum while the SNP/Greens continue to get these kind of vote shares. The only question is how frequently they should happen give A) The resources/energy for them The unidirectional nature of an in/out ref
Should be the same amount of times they win a mandate for it should they so wish. That is democracy. If more than 50% of Scottish politicians are for independence then they should be able to have a vote on it. UK is undemocratic.
100% agree. It’s for Scots to decide if a party pushing referendums every time is taking the piss if it loses. But frankly, as an Englishman, it’s none of my business.
Someone intelligent and believes in democracy , a rarity on here.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
Wasn't defining a colony - simply pointing out that there is little practical difference in terms of where the legislative power ultimately lies. The very fact that HYUFD can think in terms of subordination and sedition makes the point.
Arse. The gods are punishing me for joining on a Sunak height gag earlier. Up on the exposed South Downs as a serious looking thunderstorm rolls in. Now is not a great moment to be 6’2.
Recently cleared the south coast - bad for about 20 minutes, but clear skies beyond.
To be honest, Steve Baker interests me, for two reasons, he interviews so well, quite a brilliant communicator. But he also knows his mind - he describes himself as Free Market Left, and if he wishes to expand on what that means anytime I would be keen to listen.
Compare and contrast Steve Baker so strong on media rounds this weekend with Penny Mourdant’s latest car crash interview. I am saying the differential between them is Steve Baker knows his mind, to answer questions he goes straight to that, out comes confident clear answers, Mourdant turns to a lot of empty space where there are no answers.
I’m not making an ideological point, the point I am making is politics works best, and more honestly, when politicians and parties have a clear ethos, and they just want to honestly talk about it and explain it.
Yes, this is why Corbyn did better than expected in 2017. The problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. Their thoughts are clear and easy to express because they can't engage with the complexity of the real world. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp. Johnson is nuts too of course, in a different way. He deals with the complexity of the world by believing in nothing except his own advancement, and simply tells people what they want to hear. This turns out to be a surprisingly successful strategy in the right hands. I suspect Sunak is not nuts but will struggle to get a hearing from the electorate. The Tories will get a bounce because he is an improvement on Truss. But I think they'd be better off choosing Johnson again. They're screwed whatever, anyway.
“problem is often that people who have a clear idea of what they believe in are nuts. I have the impression that Baker is in that camp.”
Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.
A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?
I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.
Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
What sort of 'liberal' measures might turn the ship round? I heard a program the other night which said Norway in the 60's was one of the poorest countries in the World. Now it's the richest. Their population is the same as Scotland. No jiggery pokery with rich peoples tax rates. If there are simplistic answers I'd advise Scotland to follow Norway and start a rapid hunt for more oil and then get out of this stifling Union,
I also see Redfield & Wilton are at the "bobbins" game but their conclusions look uniformly bleak for the governing party..
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
The Sunak/Johnson difference in the Red Wall is MoE stuff.
Also, we don't face an imminent GE with both parties manifestos and leaders in the spotlight, particularly Labour which for now is simply a repository for mass disaffection with the conduct of the Conservative government.
What we have at the moment is essentially extreme midterm polling.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
Boris should have done this on Friday and declared he wasn't running and would support Rishi, competition over and Rishi becomes PM on Monday evening.
The European Commission has confirmed that if an independent Scotland was to join the EU it would have to have a hard border between Scotland and England.
The executive body of the EU confirmed that if Scotland was to vote for independence and join the EU it would be expected to sign up to strict border controls.
The EU chiefs confirmed that Scots would need a passport to travel to England under independence despite Nicola Sturgeon saying otherwise.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
You have exactly the same rights and privileges as we do.
The objection essentially boils down to the fact Scotland has a much smaller population than England, so is subject to getting outvoted more often than not.
If Scotland had, say, a population of 35 million and we had identical constitutional arrangements then the problem wouldn't arise.
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
If true, I look forward to the comical dramatisation of these events in coming years. Iannucci’s take on it would be brilliant.
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
Shit being treated like a shit.
Karma.
Sounds like horse to me. Why would he curtail his massive earning power by being anything other than PM?
Those figures are astonishingly discouraging for Labour given the recent opinion polls.
I dunno. If I was Starmer I’d be bloody delighted. The last thing he needs is two years of solid “Labour Majority Incoming”. He needs to keep activists and voters on their toes by making it seem to be a close contest.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
What foreign country? There is a sober case to be made for Scottish independence but you’re not making it.
Like Brown did for GE2010 it's a credible objective for Sunak to strive for if Ukraine and inflation ends, he settles the deals with the EU, and restores probity to public life and our finances.
He can then turn the lens on Labour in 2 years time and grind out a draw.
The European Commission has confirmed that if an independent Scotland was to join the EU it would have to have a hard border between Scotland and England.
The executive body of the EU confirmed that if Scotland was to vote for independence and join the EU it would be expected to sign up to strict border controls.
The EU chiefs confirmed that Scots would need a passport to travel to England under independence despite Nicola Sturgeon saying otherwise.
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
RS Archer is not, much as I’d like him to be, a reliable source
The Trussite age is over - this is the dawning of the age of Sunakism.
Apparently, as Boris Johnson begins to discover the mystique, the glamour, the "X" factor which he had in spades as Mayor of London and in the first days of becoming Prime Minister has deserted him.
Oddly enough, the fates have been quite capricious - eight years in a non-job and then three years working his way to the very top to be brought down by a microscopic virus and his own fundamental character flaws.
There seem to be those who presumably loathe Sunak with a healthy passion and see no future for themselves in his administration and those who still think Johnson can connect with the electorate in a way no other Conservative can. That was undeniably true once but too much water (or beer) has flowed under too many bridges for that to be the case.
There are those in the electorate who still love "good old Boris" and probably always will just as there are those who claim our last decent Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher (no one ever says Blair or Cameron).
Sunak doesn't have Boris's charisma - he doesn't seem wholly comfortable with the electorate - and probably doesn't even have Starmer's in truth. Will he be able to allow his Chancellor to run economic policy or will he want to run it out of No.10? I see his new "friends" are pitching round trying to get jobs in the new era (as it ever was).
Those Conservatives with time on their side might consider what Sunak's future will be if the Party is comprehensively defeated at the next GE. Sunak himself will survive but will he want to stay on as LOTO? Seems implausible. Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch look well placed to survive all but the most extreme defeats and I suspect the next contest will be between them (not that, beyond it being a betting opportunity, anyone will care that much).
Unless Boris holds his seat and runs for Leader of the Opposition.
Tugendhat likely stands as the Moderates candidate and Mordaunt might run again too
Next Con leader market will be made much more interesting with the will they/wont they hold their seat calculation to consider.
I think a Johnson chicken run is coming.
Actually, "chicken run" is such a loaded phrase. So I'll say I suspect we'll shortly discover the hitherto hidden truth about Johnson's deep and lasting affinity with the wonderful county and people of Lincolnshire.
Are you calling the good folk of Linconshire a flock of clucks? With an abiding love for chickenshit?
Any Oaf backers out there? He’s now drifted to 6.4.
All over bar the shouting?
Very short imo. A lay not a back. But I've laid too much already so pass. I do hope the Big Troll reaches its conclusion soon though. I have Bosch to finish and I'm keen to shut down and get it going.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
You have exactly the same rights and privileges as we do.
The objection essentially boils down to the fact Scotland has a much smaller population than England, so is subject to getting outvoted more often than not.
If Scotland had, say, a population of 35 million and we had identical constitutional arrangements then the problem wouldn't arise.
No we don't , we have under 10% of teh population of England and can never ever win any vote at any time. It is a de facto colony. If every person in Scotland voted for something at next election it would make no difference. England decides we are too uppity and don't deserve to have a vote we are stuck with it.
The European Commission has confirmed that if an independent Scotland was to join the EU it would have to have a hard border between Scotland and England.
The executive body of the EU confirmed that if Scotland was to vote for independence and join the EU it would be expected to sign up to strict border controls.
The EU chiefs confirmed that Scots would need a passport to travel to England under independence despite Nicola Sturgeon saying otherwise.
LOL the Express, not even toilet paper. Also who would give a toss we could enter 27 other countries with no border, far better.
Twenty seven borders open and one closes.
The Express and other fascists pretend that the traffic is all one way, conveniently ignoring that England is dependent on the import of Scottish utilities.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
Like the EU?
(Damn, sucked in again…)
The EU does not decide 100% of your life, ours is 100% controlled by England. What England wants England gets , we want something tough luck we have to suck it up and do what England tells us we really want.
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
Shit being treated like a shit.
Karma.
Sounds like horse to me. Why would he curtail his massive earning power by being anything other than PM?
Multiple sources now saying Johnson desperately trying to do a deal with Mourdant or Sunak for him to be Foreign Secretary as he cannot reach 100 nominations. Both have rejected him believing they don't need his support. https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
RS Archer is not, much as I’d like him to be, a reliable source
Yes, I doubt that's true.
If it was we'd be hearing it directly from more mainstream sources.
OK, hands up, who started another argument over Scotland?
Meanwhile, the Graun carries a piece by ex-Labour MP Chris Mullin arguing the case for higher taxes to avoid public spending cuts. Fair enough, but his chosen remedy? Hike income tax. Christ, more shellacking of earnings whilst assets go untouched. And it's probably the sort of thing that Reeves will end up doing, because the grey vote will throw an epic tantrum if she touches property. I despair.
Pleese sir, pleese sir, it was HYUFD began it. He sa that Mr Sunak being more popular than Mr Johnson in Scotland is a deeply meaningful and useful statement suitable for an intelligent website like this one.
I should imagine that bubonic plague and a nuclear holocaust would both be at least slightly more popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson, so granted it's a pretty low bar.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
Not in those words, but he was getting quite excited at the though of arresting Ms Sturgeon for sedition a little earlier.
I was saying what would happen if Scotland was actually a colony, which it isn't
Have a look at the legislation. All devolution is subject to resumption by UKG at the latter's wish. That *is* effectively a colony.
You’re a serious poster, but this is not a serious definition of “colony”.
When a foreign country decides what you are allowed to do or not do and how and when you are allowed to vote and what you can vote on, that is a de facto colony.
Like the EU?
(Damn, sucked in again…)
The EU does not decide 100% of your life, ours is 100% controlled by England. What England wants England gets , we want something tough luck we have to suck it up and do what England tells us we really want.
If this is the extent of the independence argument, you might as well give up now.
Comments
Tugendhat likely stands as the Moderates candidate and Mordaunt might run again too
Of course, I hope that the apparently imminent election of Rishi marks the beginning of a wider move in the party back to what it should be. But I think it will take a long time, and a long time in opposition, before it gets there.
They're not tradeable.
I can plausibly see a scenario, if the GE takes place next year and Sunak manages to save 200-220 seats or so, that he could stay on as LOTO if he wanted to. Not enough time to bed in but he steadied the ship etc.
However if he stays in post for 2 years or so I suspect enough water will have passed under the bridge that a GE defeat will be considered more as a verdict on his own leadership and therefore he will have to own it more and stand down.
In both instances if the defeat is very heavy he will be gone.
For what it’s worth I think the next GE is less than a year away.
Well let us at least hear Baker explain himself - Free Market Left appeals to me as a philosophy, I might even be one myself without knowing it yet.
A year before Corbyn became leader would you have told me he would fight two General elections? similarly in 1973 you would have told me Margaret Thatcher would win 3 general elections and completely change the country by taking it down the road of popular capital ownership?
I might be thinking and speculating it a bit too far forward for some to want to debate with me on this today, but I am coming from the position what the problems actually are and so what the solutions are, and pretty sure now in my mind Boris, Sunak and Starmer do not have answers, and likely to just make things worse.
Maxed out credit card, highest tax take since after the war, debt, deficits, public services literally falling apart, a long period of slow growth - there is no anti growth coalition, because from right to left everyone recognises growth is the only real answer - the real idealogical fault line in our politics today is between those, admittedly a small group at present, who accept we need to take liberal measures to turn our sinking country around, and those who don’t accept this.
HY hasn't been calling for tanks to be brought in to shell Edinburgh again, has he?
With Sunak as Prime Minister, Labour lead 50-30 and with Johnson it's a 49-34 lead.
On the Sunak numbers, the straight line is a 202 Labour majority with the Conservatives down to 138 (based on the new boundaries). Add in the tactical voting numbers (as suggested by R&W themselves) and it's a 274 Labour majority with the Conservatives below 100 seats,
On the Johnson numbers, straight line is a Labour majority of 74 with the Conservatives on 202 seats. With the tactical voting unwind, that becomes a 130 seat majority.
We have often spoken of Labour's "mountain" facing the 2019 election numbers - it's the Conservatives who now seem to be back at base camp.
The other observation is there is clearly a small but significant "Johnson" vote - people who won't vote Conservative (or perhaps for anyone) if Johnson isn't leader.
The referendum was one of Cameron’s glib follies.
Born elsewhere in the UK
The third strongest correlation of the observed variables was between the proportion of the population born in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and the ‘Yes’ vote. Areas with a high proportion of people born elsewhere in the UK demonstrated the weakest support for ‘Yes’. In the case of the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway – the two LAs that share a border with England – this seems fairly intuitive. One might expect a higher concentration of people born elsewhere in the UK in these areas due to the close proximity to England, as well as a stronger desire to remain within the UK due to the social and economic ties such proximity brings. Interestingly, it is the urban areas in the centre of the country that have the lowest share of English, Welsh or Northern Irish and the highest support for ‘Yes’. Even in those central areas where a majority voted for ‘No’ such as North and East Ayrshire, the result was closer than the average (a difference of 2 and 5 points, respectively).
We are going to get precisely nowhere until we deal properly with the funnelling of an ever-greater share of national wealth into unproductive piles of bricks and, via both that and the triple lock, into the pockets of equally unproductive old people. But old people account for a massive and increasing share of the electorate, and they vote religiously.
The biggest threat to the economy and future prosperity of the nation is not, therefore, Brexit, or the Ukrainian situation, or Tory maladministration. It's Britain turning into a gerontocracy - if it isn't there already.
I'll leave someone else to tell me the last Conservative Prime Minister other than WSC who lost an election and then served as LOTO and was still leader at the next election. Churchill lost in 1945 and 1950 and won in 1951 though, like Sunak, he became Prime Minister without winning an election.
I think it might be Baldwin....
Wallace (who I appreciate did not definitively say he would back Boris but who is on Guido’s spreadsheet as a backer (go figure)) would be a very significant one.
He also gave himself wriggle room to do it.
I’d like to hear Nabavi’s list of issues, because my general impression is that Reeves is very sound. Starmer, on the other hand, doesn’t do economics. He’s essentially a rather dull, triangulating technocrat, albeit with a conviction that the country has been run for the rich for too long.
But he’s not wrong about that.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20194657/rishi-sunak-announce-formal-bid-conservative-leadership/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly
You Nats don't know the meaning of a real colony!
He had a journalist’s smell for what plays well - that’s it.
Said three seats would be Castle Point, Louth & Horncastle and South Holland & The Deepings on current boundaries (on the 2023 boundaries, the Conservatives win just one seat).The Labour majority of 484 would be comparable to the 1931 National Government landslide. To be fair, Labour were back 14 years later.
@malcolmg ’s “trust me” is almost as convincing as BoJo.
NEW: This is the memo Johnson campaign is circulating to MPs tonight claiming their man is "the best chance the Conservatives have at avoiding electoral wipe-out." https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1584210906678202368/photo/1
Actually, "chicken run" is such a loaded phrase. So I'll say I suspect we'll shortly discover the hitherto hidden truth about Johnson's deep and lasting affinity with the wonderful county and people of Lincolnshire.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1584211310627082240
Repeating last year's highlight, we already have the cheery sight of a body wrapped in bin bags hanging from a gibbet.
He needs more nominations than he has hours left.
I find that incredibly patronising - I'm not sure why. I also thought Liz Truss was married but chose to keep her maiden name as is her right.
I assume the Mail think their readers wouldn't approve of an unmarried woman as Prime Minister - I don't believe anyone's marital status is related to their competence or incompetence to be Prime Minister.
We'll know their priorities the second it drops, of course, by setting aside headline grabbing initiatives on devolution, green energy and the like, and addressing two fundamental questions: is the triple lock to be maintained? And will they decline to significantly raise taxation on property and inheritances? If the answer to both those questions is "yes," then all that Labour will be doing, fundamentally, is promising to manage the current failed economic settlement less incompetently, and decline will continue.
This, as far as I recall, was never done for his previous leadership contest spreadsheet and many of us have suspected was a way of ramping Boris’ support to show him out in the lead at the start of the contest.
The problem is it’s now a full 16 names. If you look at BoJo’s named nominations hes only got a declared support of 60.
So when assessing his chances you’ve got to try and work out how much those extra 16 are genuine backers or not.
My prediction - there may be a handful in that boat but I am far from convinced it’s anywhere near 16.
Disprove the theory then smartarse.
https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1584209414013480960
https://twitter.com/nus_ghani/status/1584185824781824001
Sound likely to you?
Property taxes (at least stamp duty and its equivalents, Council Tax & its banding) are devolved.
I agree CGT on property sales is not devolved, but could not the devolved Parliaments introduce their own property sales taxes?
So, Labour (& the SNP) could actually take action now.
Labour are consulting on (i) extra bands at the top of the Council Tax, and (ii) removing the single person's discount at the moment in Wales. It will be interesting to see what they do. My guess is they'll bottle it. I think for the changes to have any effect, they will produce too many losers & they will take fright.
And also, most politicians -- even left-wing ones -- own property portfolios, so they are conflicted.
For example, I was slightly gobsmacked when Drakeford and Price admitted how much property they had.
E.g., Mr Price said he had both a home in his constituency of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, and Cardiff. Mr Price's register of interests says his partner, who is a judge, has two rental properties in London. His register of interests for the previous Senedd (from 2016 to 2021) said he had also owned a residential property in London but that has now ceased.
And Price is pretty left-wing.
All over bar the shouting?
Lab Maj 2.34
NOM 2.5
Con Maj 6.2
Also, we don't face an imminent GE with both parties manifestos and leaders in the spotlight, particularly Labour which for now is simply a repository for mass disaffection with the conduct of the Conservative government.
What we have at the moment is essentially extreme midterm polling.
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1584202221646118912
https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1584196741427253248
The executive body of the EU confirmed that if Scotland was to vote for independence and join the EU it would be expected to sign up to strict border controls.
The EU chiefs confirmed that Scots would need a passport to travel to England under independence despite Nicola Sturgeon saying otherwise.
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/eu-chiefs-confirm-snps-scexit-28308519
(Damn, sucked in again…)
The objection essentially boils down to the fact Scotland has a much smaller population than England, so is subject to getting outvoted more often than not.
If Scotland had, say, a population of 35 million and we had identical constitutional arrangements then the problem wouldn't arise.
Karma.
If everyone else is acting as if it isn't a big deal and only you are worried about it, then they've all been got at by the aliens.
There is a sober case to be made for Scottish independence but you’re not making it.
Like Brown did for GE2010 it's a credible objective for Sunak to strive for if Ukraine and inflation ends, he settles the deals with the EU, and restores probity to public life and our finances.
He can then turn the lens on Labour in 2 years time and grind out a draw.
So no, and no...
The Express and other fascists pretend that the traffic is all one way, conveniently ignoring that England is dependent on the import of Scottish utilities.
Bad news - starting at $175!
Risk of an ongoing betrayal narrative affecting a third of MPs at a time of plausible rebellions over contentious fiscal decisions.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1584218267929186305
If it was we'd be hearing it directly from more mainstream sources.