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Memo to Tory MPs and members thinking about backing Boris – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
Memo to Tory MPs and members thinking about backing Boris – politicalbetting.com

Pollsters @Omnisis just asked voters what one word they would use to describe Boris Johnson. Here's what they found. pic.twitter.com/fSXi84vbH6

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    first like Rishi
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    edited October 23
    2nd like nobody as its a Coronation

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    edited October 23
    Not sure what Sunak promised Braverman but it’s bound to be something which delivers misery to someone given her nature however just seeing the fat oaf fxck off would be at least some consolation !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Back on holiday for Boris and Carrie before 5pm Monday!!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    Braverman means that my model slips to Boris on 99 nominations.

    The fact that he was on 114 yesterday indicates how little moment he has, although the fact he has one nomination today might have been an easier way to learn that...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    The Bozo campaign have rushed out the Cleverly endorsement as they’re now in full panic mode after Braverman supported Sunak .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23
    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to below 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,223
    Yep, what a ghastly bloke. But anyway, almost over now. One big troll imo.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    Sunak 1/5
    Johnson 6/1
    Mordaunt 40s
    Starmer 300s
    Hunt 750s
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Only chance of a contest is if PM4PM pulls out even then BBB would struggle to get 100 by the looks of it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    6.4
  • HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939
    Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766
    FFS support my BBB -Bring Back Boris campaign -sponsored by the The Liberal Democrats.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

    1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
    2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

    https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Braverman is very popular with Tory members so this endorsement really helps Sunak if it goes to them .
  • HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,451

    Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford

    Three now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
    Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

    Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

    It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    Scott_xP said:

    Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

    1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
    2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

    https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185

    Maybe Cleverly is the tranche. They've been saving a tranche of one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939
    dixiedean said:

    Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford

    Three now.
    Steven who....
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Scott_xP said:

    Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

    1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
    2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

    https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185

    If they were going to do 1 they’ve left it very late which suggests they’re now feeding off scraps from the buffet table in terms of big names to back the oaf .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
    Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

    Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

    It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
    Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?
  • Back on holiday for Boris and Carrie before 5pm Monday!!

    Towels still on the sun loungers, ice not quite yet melted in the Pina coladas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Thrilled to say I now have the backing of 100 MPs. I will put the country first and deliver stability and return confidence. I can't give any details of how I would do this because I am putting the country first and not details. https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1584166286417723392/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Nope, final Opinium poll before Boris resigned in July had the Tories on 33%, final Redfield on 31%, final Comres on 32% and even final Yougov on 29%. Far higher than 'low to mid 20s' let alone 10% or below

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
    Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

    Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

    It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
    Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?
    Now yes, as I voted for Sunak over Truss in the summer.

    If Sunak loses the next election however I could see Boris coming back as Leader of the Opposition as Moore suggests. However now is not the time for Boris, we need a serious, details heavy figure as PM to tackle the economic challenges the government faces
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    edited October 23
    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” put forward?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939

    Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

    We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

    And the likes of JRM dispatched from the cabinet like Kohli dispatched the Pakistani bowlers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?
    'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Nope, final Opinium poll before Boris resigned in July had the Tories on 33%, final Redfield on 31%, final Comres on 32% and even final Yougov on 29%. Far higher than 'low to mid 20s' let alone 10% or below

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    You're now talking about voting intention, not PM approval ratings. You have to look at PM approval in order to make claims about Johnson's popularity as plenty of people vote for parties despite their leaders.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • EXC: Boris Johnson is privately making clear he would keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor if he wins the leadership.

    An attempt to reassure MPs he’d do what the markets wanted. Eye-catching move towards his old rival… but unclear if Hunt would accept.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584173388569853953

    Again, not something that happens if you're looking fine for the 100.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,546

    Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

    We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

    And the likes of JRM dispatched from the cabinet like Kohli dispatched the Pakistani bowlers.
    Let's hope so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?
    'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc
    The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233
    Scott_xP said:

    Thrilled to say I now have the backing of 100 MPs. I will put the country first and deliver stability and return confidence. I can't give any details of how I would do this because I am putting the country first and not details. https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1584166286417723392/photo/1

    Quality centrist Dad humour. Holt’s act was amusing the first few times. A bit like Jonathan
    Pie.

    It’s become a little repetitive but her army of online sycophants sustain her.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    EXC: Boris Johnson is privately making clear he would keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor if he wins the leadership.

    An attempt to reassure MPs he’d do what the markets wanted. Eye-catching move towards his old rival… but unclear if Hunt would accept.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584173388569853953

    Again, not something that happens if you're looking fine for the 100.

    Of course we can trust Johnson’s word ! This looks desperate from the oaf .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939
    Villa, Leeds and Leicester winning, worlds gone mad.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.
    Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
    Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
    Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

    Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

    It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
    Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?
    Now yes, as I voted for Sunak over Truss in the summer.

    If Sunak loses the next election however I could see Boris coming back as Leader of the Opposition as Moore suggests. However now is not the time for Boris, we need a serious, details heavy figure as PM to tackle the economic challenges the government faces
    Fair play and good on you as your posts do not give that impression
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?
    'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc
    The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,
    So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' and 'charismatic' pretty sizeable.

    Even now the weekend polls show Boris still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than any alternative Tory leader, even Rishi, just as I said he also likely gets more tactical votes against him too
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    IanB2 said:

    Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.

    That could backfire . And would play very badly with the members , it could help him if it went to them for a vote .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    IanB2 said:

    Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.

    That would be a fitting end
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,939
    edited October 23

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.
    Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
    Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.
    My point was league heyday was the 90s. All those exciting skilful players via Va'aiga Tuigamala, Offiah, etc in the early 90s. Obviously there was Lomu in late 90s, but union was in comparison quite a one dimensional game and he was the freak.

    The difference now is union dominates and hoovers up most of the best talent (outside NRL in Australia) and the officials have changed the rules significantly. League on the other hand has remained quite static.
  • Yeah Hunt doesn't need to say anything.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    edited October 23

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    I played union at school; it was compulsory.

    And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
    On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

    I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years
    Don’t you go giving us second thoughts!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” put forward?
    I liked "Confidebt" but I think that applies more to Truss. Definition: to think bond markets will buy all you want to sell without worrying how you might pay them back.

    As an aside. I would think just one person would mistype that so how many people did they use to create that cloud if it reached the final picture.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,452
    Taz said:
    Correction: Stupidly supporting Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23

    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

    Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?
    'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc
    The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,
    So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' ...
    Funny like he's a clown? He amuses you?
  • Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    It still will not save the SNP losing seats to Labour at the next GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 23
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

    Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?
    'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc
    The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,
    So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' ...
    Funny like he's a clown? He amuses you?
    Yes, Boris was the first Tory leader ever to win most unskilled working class DE voters in 2019, in part because they liked him more than other Tory leaders before

  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Taz said:
    That's his political career finished - Rishi is going to need the Foreign Office to give to Penny.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
    Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.
  • Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

    Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
    Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.
    Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

    We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

    And, would we get you back Richard?

    We miss you. Please come back.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,694
    I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

    "Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

    Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Dura_Ace said:
    Britannia rues the waves.

    Has HS2 gone yet?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.
    Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
    Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.
    My point was league heyday was the 90s. All those exciting skilful players via Va'aiga Tuigamala, Offiah, etc in the early 90s. Obviously there was Lomu in late 90s, but union was in comparison quite a one dimensional game and he was the freak.

    The difference now is union dominates and hoovers up most of the best talent (outside NRL in Australia) and the officials have changed the rules significantly. League on the other hand has remained quite static.
    Fair point, but I still regard league as endlessly one dimensional.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    Endillion said:

    I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

    "Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

    Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?

    Systematised, rather, perhaps; 'sanitised' wouldnt' be so much fun!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

    * Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

    * Delivering on Rwanda

    * Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

    * A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

    Well, he's not exactly a fluffy centrist. He just is more competent.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

    Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

    Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    HYUFD said:

    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

    Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
    Train sets thoroughly recommended as a recreation for you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.

    Exactly so.
  • Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    I played union at school; it was compulsory.

    And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
    On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

    I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!
    The ‘Cook Islands’ team had a distinct whiff of Australia ‘C’ about them… Interesting story about league in Greece, and I applaud those in charge for trying to expand, but it is almost as bad as US sports claiming the ‘World Series’ in a sport only they play, and even if other countries have sides, they aren’t allowed in…
  • MaxPB said:

    Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

    Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

    Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.
    Your wife's best friend, eh?

    You mucky pup ;-)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    edited October 23
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
    Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.
    Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?
    I don't vote Conservative.

    I've voted for all three left-ish parties at one time or another, depending on who the candidate was, what I felt about the policies they were putting forward and how likely they were to defeat the Conservative!
    I would have voted for four, but I've never had the opportunity to vote Plaid Cymru!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

    Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

    Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.
    Your wife's best friend, eh?

    You mucky pup ;-)
    She was over for dinner last night lol.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

    Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
    SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.

    If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.

    Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.

    Fixed that for you.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    One other significant moment approaching. Rishi's team say that on their numbers they need to 4 more nominations for it to be mathematically impossible for more than two candidates to meet the threshold. At that moment huge pressure on Penny Mordaunt to release her supporters.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584179126310535168
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    HYUFD said:

    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

    Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris
    That last comment is the most backhanded comment I have ever seen about Mr Sunak. Absolutely damning with faint praise.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    Endillion said:

    I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

    "Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

    Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?

    also 2 Pr**ks, 2 c*nts, a knob, a dick and a twat. could be the start of Monty Python's Matching Tie and Handkerchief.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.

    Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    edited October 23

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

    There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

    So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

    Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

    So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

    That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.
    Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
    Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.
    Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?
    I don't vote Conservative.

    I've voted for all three left-ish parties at one time or another, depending on who the candidate was, what I felt about the policies they were putting forward and how likely they were to defeat the Conservative!
    I would have voted for four, but I've never had the opportunity to vote Plaid Cymru!
    You should have lived in Scotland - you'd have been able to notch up another two easily (at leats before the Scottish Socialists self-destructed)!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

    Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

    The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

    A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

    Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

    The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

    It still will not save the SNP losing seats to Labour at the next GE
    Alba will definitely lose two seats to Team Sarwar, but as for SNP seats? The jury is out. Under the news boundaries the most vulnerable SNP seat has a majority of over 5,200. That is no easy target when the SNP have a national lead of approximately 15 points.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
    I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

    I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.
    I played union at school; it was compulsory.

    And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
    On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

    I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!
    The ‘Cook Islands’ team had a distinct whiff of Australia ‘C’ about them… Interesting story about league in Greece, and I applaud those in charge for trying to expand, but it is almost as bad as US sports claiming the ‘World Series’ in a sport only they play, and even if other countries have sides, they aren’t allowed in…
    Thought it was New Zealand B!
    Rather amusing that the Cubans won the Olympic gold medal in baseball.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Braverman feels fatal for Boris
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Pulpstar said:

    Braverman feels fatal for Boris

    Shame. I was looking forward to another Oaf crash n burn.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,124

    Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.

    Go on, Nadim, you know it's the patriotic thing to do. Ugh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807

    Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.

    Exactly so.
    Which is why it should be possible for Hunt, in his calm and gentlemanly fashion, to come up with some words that put further pressure on the clown’s supporters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Taz said:

    Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.

    Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.
    Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    edited October 23

    Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

    Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

    Itd be laughable if it were not so vital.

    The idea people of that age and experience change so much in 2 months is absurd.

    Bottom line is his positives are no longer as effective, and his negatives have massively increased.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092
    Dura_Ace said:
    Thank goodness for that. Much more important things to spend the limited bawbees on. I wonder how long the Red Arrows will survive.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    It is now 24 hours since Team Boris claimed to have the support of 100 MPs

    The number who have backed him publicly currently stands at 61

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1584181148342579201
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.

    Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.
    Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus
    But but but, Sean is smarter and cleverer than everybody in the whole wide world.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,092

    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

    The ending might come quite quickly now.

    Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.
    Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus
    But but but, Sean is smarter and cleverer than everybody in the whole wide world.
    I don't mind him having bigger cerebral hemispheres, never mind other anatomical attributes, than a Sperm Whale, if he is wrong about forecasting nuclear doom within a year or two!
This discussion has been closed.