Memo to Tory MPs and members thinking about backing Boris – politicalbetting.com

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Memo to Tory MPs and members thinking about backing Boris – politicalbetting.com

Pollsters @Omnisis just asked voters what one word they would use to describe Boris Johnson. Here's what they found. pic.twitter.com/fSXi84vbH6

Read the full story here

paulyork64

first like Rishi

bigjohnowls

2nd like nobody as its a Coronation

nico679

Not sure what Sunak promised Braverman but it’s bound to be something which delivers misery to someone given her nature however just seeing the fat oaf fxck off would be at least some consolation !

bigjohnowls

Back on holiday for Boris and Carrie before 5pm Monday!!

dixiedean

Problem is. We tend to think he has more backing than he does.
Because those who like Boris are loud, boorish, vociferous and persistent in pontificating their ill-thought out views.
Makes you wonder what they see in him?

TheWhiteRabbit

Braverman means that my model slips to Boris on 99 nominations.

The fact that he was on 114 yesterday indicates how little moment he has, although the fact he has one nomination today might have been an easier way to learn that...

nico679

The Bozo campaign have rushed out the Cleverly endorsement as they’re now in full panic mode after Braverman supported Sunak .

HYUFD

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to below 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

kinabalu

Yep, what a ghastly bloke. But anyway, almost over now. One big troll imo.

ping

Sunak 1/5
Johnson 6/1
Mordaunt 40s
Starmer 300s
Hunt 750s

bigjohnowls

Only chance of a contest is if PM4PM pulls out even then BBB would struggle to get 100 by the looks of it

rottenborough

6.4

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

FrancisUrquhart

Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford

Icarus

FFS support my BBB -Bring Back Boris campaign -sponsored by the The Liberal Democrats.

Scott_xP

Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185

nico679

Braverman is very popular with Tory members so this endorsement really helps Sunak if it goes to them .

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

dixiedean

FrancisUrquhart said:

Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford

Three now.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/

Chris

Scott_xP said:

Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185

Maybe Cleverly is the tranche. They've been saving a tranche of one.

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Aston Villa 2-0 Brentford

Three now.

Steven who....

nico679

Scott_xP said:

Cleverly is one of Johnson's closest allies from as far back as City Hall. He support a nailed-on certainty. He was being 'saved', which means one of two things:

1. Johnson camp have been saving a tranche to announce all together; or
2. They're desperate to kick-start momentum.

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1584167359635677185

If they were going to do 1 they’ve left it very late which suggests they’re now feeding off scraps from the buffet table in terms of big names to back the oaf .

OldKingCole

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/

Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?

SirNorfolkPassmore

bigjohnowls said:

Back on holiday for Boris and Carrie before 5pm Monday!!

Towels still on the sun loungers, ice not quite yet melted in the Pina coladas.

Scott_xP

Thrilled to say I now have the backing of 100 MPs. I will put the country first and deliver stability and return confidence. I can't give any details of how I would do this because I am putting the country first and not details. https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1584166286417723392/photo/1

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Nope, final Opinium poll before Boris resigned in July had the Tories on 33%, final Redfield on 31%, final Comres on 32% and even final Yougov on 29%. Far higher than 'low to mid 20s' let alone 10% or below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

Dura_Ace

Flegship binned!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-jeremy-hunt-plans-scrap-28299485

Richard_Nabavi

Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/

Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?

Now yes, as I voted for Sunak over Truss in the summer.

If Sunak loses the next election however I could see Boris coming back as Leader of the Opposition as Moore suggests. However now is not the time for Boris, we need a serious, details heavy figure as PM to tackle the economic challenges the government faces

IanB2

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” put forward?

FrancisUrquhart

Richard_Nabavi said:

Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

And the likes of JRM dispatched from the cabinet like Kohli dispatched the Pakistani bowlers.

turbotubbs

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?

'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Nope, final Opinium poll before Boris resigned in July had the Tories on 33%, final Redfield on 31%, final Comres on 32% and even final Yougov on 29%. Far higher than 'low to mid 20s' let alone 10% or below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

You're now talking about voting intention, not PM approval ratings. You have to look at PM approval in order to make claims about Johnson's popularity as plenty of people vote for parties despite their leaders.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

GustavoFrings

EXC: Boris Johnson is privately making clear he would keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor if he wins the leadership.

An attempt to reassure MPs he’d do what the markets wanted. Eye-catching move towards his old rival… but unclear if Hunt would accept.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584173388569853953

Again, not something that happens if you're looking fine for the 100.

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

And the likes of JRM dispatched from the cabinet like Kohli dispatched the Pakistani bowlers.

Let's hope so.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?

'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc

The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,

Morris_Dancer

Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.

FrancisUrquhart

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.

IanB2

Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.

Taz

Scott_xP said:

Thrilled to say I now have the backing of 100 MPs. I will put the country first and deliver stability and return confidence. I can't give any details of how I would do this because I am putting the country first and not details. https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1584166286417723392/photo/1

Quality centrist Dad humour. Holt’s act was amusing the first few times. A bit like Jonathan
Pie.

It’s become a little repetitive but her army of online sycophants sustain her.

nico679

GustavoFrings said:

EXC: Boris Johnson is privately making clear he would keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor if he wins the leadership.

An attempt to reassure MPs he’d do what the markets wanted. Eye-catching move towards his old rival… but unclear if Hunt would accept.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1584173388569853953

Again, not something that happens if you're looking fine for the 100.

Of course we can trust Johnson’s word ! This looks desperate from the oaf .

FrancisUrquhart

Villa, Leeds and Leicester winning, worlds gone mad.

turbotubbs

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.

Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Charles Moore's closing comments in the Telegraph yesterday are the best advice for Boris now 'Boris’s trump card is his unrivalled brilliance as a campaigner. The selectorate he faces next week will perk up at that thought. But the next general election will not be fought on the heady optimism at which he excels, but on who can best lead us through tough economic times. Rishi Sunak seems to have the relevant skill-set for this steady, painstaking work over the next 24 months. His respectability in the eyes of Davos Man might, paradoxically, allow him more market room for pro-growth innovation than the establishment would ever grant wayward Boris. Rishian solid achievements might win more votes than Borisian over-claiming.

Neither Boris nor Rishi, at the time of writing, is irrevocably committed to standing. Remember that, in 2016, Boris suddenly backed down nine minutes before he was to have announced his Tory leadership bid, after Michael Gove had suddenly declared him unfit for office. Gove did him a favour. When Boris returned to the fray three years on, he was ready to win.

It might be a good idea if history repeated itself. I can see Boris storming back in different circumstances, with a Labour government in disarray and a lack-lustre Tory opposition seeking renewal. I don’t see it working right now. True Boris fans will have the courage to tell him to sit this one out.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/

Straight question. Are you backing Sunak ?

Now yes, as I voted for Sunak over Truss in the summer.

If Sunak loses the next election however I could see Boris coming back as Leader of the Opposition as Moore suggests. However now is not the time for Boris, we need a serious, details heavy figure as PM to tackle the economic challenges the government faces

Fair play and good on you as your posts do not give that impression

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?

'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc

The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,

So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' and 'charismatic' pretty sizeable.

Even now the weekend polls show Boris still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than any alternative Tory leader, even Rishi, just as I said he also likely gets more tactical votes against him too

nico679

IanB2 said:

Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.

That could backfire . And would play very badly with the members , it could help him if it went to them for a vote .

Scott_xP

IanB2 said:

Hunt needs to come out this evening or tomorrow morning and kill Johnson’s bid off. He should enjoy that, really.

That would be a fitting end

FrancisUrquhart

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.

Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.

My point was league heyday was the 90s. All those exciting skilful players via Va'aiga Tuigamala, Offiah, etc in the early 90s. Obviously there was Lomu in late 90s, but union was in comparison quite a one dimensional game and he was the freak.

The difference now is union dominates and hoovers up most of the best talent (outside NRL in Australia) and the officials have changed the rules significantly. League on the other hand has remained quite static.

GustavoFrings

Yeah Hunt doesn't need to say anything.

OldKingCole

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

I played union at school; it was compulsory.

And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!

StuartDickson

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx

Taz

Cleverly supports Boris.

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1584173707823497217?s=61&t=kSRIu8uUpaSv9eNZqQv-Zw

IanB2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Don’t you go giving us second thoughts!

paulyork64

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” put forward?

I liked "Confidebt" but I think that applies more to Truss. Definition: to think bond markets will buy all you want to sell without worrying how you might pay them back.

As an aside. I would think just one person would mistype that so how many people did they use to create that cloud if it reached the final picture.

SeaShantyIrish2

Taz said:

Cleverly supports Boris.

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1584173707823497217?s=61&t=kSRIu8uUpaSv9eNZqQv-Zw

Correction: Stupidly supporting Boris.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris

Chris

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?

'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc

The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,

So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' ...

Funny like he's a clown? He amuses you?

Big_G_NorthWales

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

It still will not save the SNP losing seats to Labour at the next GE

HYUFD

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him.

Which words in the pictogram did the third of respondents who apparently “absolutely love him” suggest?

'Charismatic', 'Strong', 'Capable', 'Cool', 'Human', 'Funny', 'Churchillian', 'Strong', 'Great', 'Leader' etc

The way the pictogram works is that the size of the words reflects how often they were mentioned,

So what, about a 1/3 of them are still positive, some like 'funny' ...

Funny like he's a clown? He amuses you?

Yes, Boris was the first Tory leader ever to win most unskilled working class DE voters in 2019, in part because they liked him more than other Tory leaders before

eek

Taz said:

Cleverly supports Boris.

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1584173707823497217?s=61&t=kSRIu8uUpaSv9eNZqQv-Zw

That's his political career finished - Rishi is going to need the Foreign Office to give to Penny.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx

Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx

Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.

Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?

Big_G_NorthWales

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson continues a toxic presence and within weeks he will have destroyed the conservative party and it will be out of office for years

Don’t you go giving us second thoughts!

Ultimately this is a vote for decency, honesty and integrity and if conservative members put Johnson in office then they put two fingers up at these virtues

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

Looking on the optimistic side, it's now looking quite likely that Sunak becomes leader on Monday. Relief from the financial markets. Sunak to the palace Monday afternoon. I think he's well prepared, so cabinet appointments Monday evening. Calls first cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, at which Ben Wallace briefs ministers on Ukraine, and Hunt tells them the extent of the bad financial news. Sunak and Hunt then have almost a week to finesse the details of the 31st Oct financial statement and agree on the political presentation of it.

We might, just might, be getting to a situation where things can be stabilised amidst a return to sane government. Lots and lots of pitfalls, as well as pain, remain, of course, but maybe my piece of Friday was too pessimistic. Fingers crossed.

And, would we get you back Richard?

We miss you. Please come back.

Endillion

I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

"Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?

StuartDickson

Dura_Ace said:

Flegship binned!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-jeremy-hunt-plans-scrap-28299485

Britannia rues the waves.

Has HS2 gone yet?

turbotubbs

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

Well union in the 90s/00s used to be dominated by give the forwards, push, push, heave, push, followed by kick, kick, kick, give to the forwards....but over past 10-15 years, rugby officials have been constantly evolving the rules with eye always on increasing the free flowing play.

Who is talking about the 90’s? Honestly, I have a lot of love for league, but it’s incredibly one dimensional.
Besides, subs have been detrimental for union. When I played, subs were only for injuries. It meant that the tiredness factor was huge - sides were worked so hard by the superior team, and often shipped a lot of points in the last quarter. Now, with so many subs, not so much.

My point was league heyday was the 90s. All those exciting skilful players via Va'aiga Tuigamala, Offiah, etc in the early 90s. Obviously there was Lomu in late 90s, but union was in comparison quite a one dimensional game and he was the freak.

The difference now is union dominates and hoovers up most of the best talent (outside NRL in Australia) and the officials have changed the rules significantly. League on the other hand has remained quite static.

Fair point, but I still regard league as endlessly one dimensional.

Carnyx

Endillion said:

I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

"Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?

Systematised, rather, perhaps; 'sanitised' wouldnt' be so much fun!

kle4

Scott_xP said:

Suella Braverman's Telegraph article gives an insight into what to expect from a Rishi Sunak govt:

* Legislation to limit impact of Human Rights Act

* Delivering on Rwanda

* Pushing ahead with legislation to over-ride NI protocol

* A firm line on 'trans ideology' in schools

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584167642310406144

Well, he's not exactly a fluffy centrist. He just is more competent.

MaxPB

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris

Train sets thoroughly recommended as a recreation for you.

Casino_Royale

Morris_Dancer said:

Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.

Exactly so.

GustavoFrings

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

turbotubbs

OldKingCole said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

I played union at school; it was compulsory.

And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!

The ‘Cook Islands’ team had a distinct whiff of Australia ‘C’ about them… Interesting story about league in Greece, and I applaud those in charge for trying to expand, but it is almost as bad as US sports claiming the ‘World Series’ in a sport only they play, and even if other countries have sides, they aren’t allowed in…

SirNorfolkPassmore

MaxPB said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.

Your wife's best friend, eh?

You mucky pup ;-)

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx

Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.

Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?

I don't vote Conservative.

I've voted for all three left-ish parties at one time or another, depending on who the candidate was, what I felt about the policies they were putting forward and how likely they were to defeat the Conservative!
I would have voted for four, but I've never had the opportunity to vote Plaid Cymru!

MaxPB

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MaxPB said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

Yes, my wife's best friend described it as going back to an ex that cheated on you and expecting them to not do it this time. Any Tory MP who believes the "Boris has changed" narrative is hopelessly naïve.

Your wife's best friend, eh?

You mucky pup ;-)

She was over for dinner last night lol.

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris

SNP still soaring high at approximately 45% while Scottish Tories are floundering sub-10%.

If Salmond stands Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies their membership will collapse (see James Kelly, formerly of this parish) and their vote will be infinitesimal.

Sunak is slightly less colossally unpopular in Scotland than The Oaf.

Fixed that for you.

Scott_xP

One other significant moment approaching. Rishi's team say that on their numbers they need to 4 more nominations for it to be mathematically impossible for more than two candidates to meet the threshold. At that moment huge pressure on Penny Mordaunt to release her supporters.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584179126310535168

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

SNP still polling no higher than 45% however and Salmond waiting to stand Alba candidates across Scottish constituencies if Sturgeon again rules out UDI after the SC ruling.

Sunak also more popular in Scotland than Boris

That last comment is the most backhanded comment I have ever seen about Mr Sunak. Absolutely damning with faint praise.

paulyork64

Endillion said:

I like how the first diagram has "untrustworthy" listed at least three times, with different capitalisations.

"Buffoon" is in there four times, but some are typos. There are probably other examples.

Shouldn't the polling company have sanitised the data before releasing the results?

also 2 Pr**ks, 2 c*nts, a knob, a dick and a twat. could be the start of Monty Python's Matching Tie and Handkerchief.

Taz

GustavoFrings said:

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.

Carnyx

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

This is very misleading, while 2/3 of the country may now hate Boris over 1/3 of the country still absolutely love him. He is like Trump or Bolsonaro or Berlusconi or indeed Corbyn or Melenchon, their supporters will turn out for them regardless but they also turn off the rest of the country who will also turn out to vote against them.

There is zero chance of the party falling to 10% under Boris as there was under Truss, hence hypothetical polls already put the Tories on 34-36% if Boris comes back.

So Boris likely still gets a higher Conservative voteshare than Sunak or Mordaunt would and much higher than Truss did on the positive side for him. On the negative side though he also likely sees much higher anti Tory tactical voting from LD voters in Labour target seats and Labour voters in LD target seats as he is much more marmite than Rishi or Penny are

Johnson was getting approval ratings in the low to mid 20s by the time he left and not all of those "loved" him by any means - some people are just loyal Conservatives regardless (Truss was on about 10%).

So I don't know where you're getting your one-third love 'im stuff from.

That does contrast with Trump, who demonstrably had a low ceiling but high floor. He had net negative ratings from an early stage but the bottom never tell out as many predicted.

Trump's final approval rating as President was 34% and his average approval rating was 41%, he still got 47% in the 2020 election. Even some of those who don't necessarily approve of him still thought he would make the best President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx

Even if you didn't 'approve' of the party leader you would still vote Conservative.

Would you, then why were only 14 or 19% of voters backing a Truss led Tories in polls early last week, compared to 34-36% who would still vote for a Boris led Tories in this weekend's hypothetical polls?

I don't vote Conservative.

I've voted for all three left-ish parties at one time or another, depending on who the candidate was, what I felt about the policies they were putting forward and how likely they were to defeat the Conservative!
I would have voted for four, but I've never had the opportunity to vote Plaid Cymru!

You should have lived in Scotland - you'd have been able to notch up another two easily (at leats before the Scottish Socialists self-destructed)!

StuartDickson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Nicola Sturgeon is best performing party leader, says UK-wide poll

Nicola Sturgeon has been the best performing political leader UK-wide during her handling of the Covid crisis, with 43 per cent approval, according to a new poll.

The First Minister proved more popular throughout the UK than Boris Johnson (37 per cent) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (40 per cent) in a poll of 2,003 Brits conducted by Opinium.

A Scottish breakdown shows 57 per cent (a +24 per cent rating) of people in Scotland approve of the way Ms Sturgeon is handling her role.

Mr Johnson's has an overall ratio of -7 per cent.

The poll also finds 65 per cent of people in Scotland disapprove of the way Boris Johnson has fulfilled his role as Prime Minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-best-performing-party-leader-says-uk-wide-poll-3091673

It still will not save the SNP losing seats to Labour at the next GE

Alba will definitely lose two seats to Team Sarwar, but as for SNP seats? The jury is out. Under the news boundaries the most vulnerable SNP seat has a majority of over 5,200. That is no easy target when the SNP have a national lead of approximately 15 points.

OldKingCole

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

Meanwhile the rugby league World Cup soldiers on; this afternoon those two traditional centres of the game, Lebanon and Ireland.
I think it is finding a few new supporters. Anyway much more of a free flowing game than Union.

I have never understood those who say league is more free flowing than union. Tackle, shag the ground for three seconds, roll ball back under foot. Repeat. No variety. No complexity. Union is just a much better game. Played right, with quick ruck ball or better, ball out of the tackle, union is superb, but also has the contrast of trials of strength at scrum and maul, and the technical challenge of line out. Union has an issue with scrums getting reset, but otherwise it’s fine.

I played union at school; it was compulsory.

And I was brought up to watch it but when I went to live in the north-west I started watching league and enjoyed it. When rugby league was trying to expand into Essex I used to go and watch the Southend side, who got hammered every match!
On the television I still prefer league. Union's always stopping.

I I find the idea of a World Cup somewhat amusing though; about 2 1/2 countries play rugby league regularly and three or four more supply players to those two!

The ‘Cook Islands’ team had a distinct whiff of Australia ‘C’ about them… Interesting story about league in Greece, and I applaud those in charge for trying to expand, but it is almost as bad as US sports claiming the ‘World Series’ in a sport only they play, and even if other countries have sides, they aren’t allowed in…

Thought it was New Zealand B!
Rather amusing that the Cubans won the Olympic gold medal in baseball.

Pulpstar

Braverman feels fatal for Boris

StuartDickson

Pulpstar said:

Braverman feels fatal for Boris

Shame. I was looking forward to another Oaf crash n burn.

JohnO

GustavoFrings said:

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

Go on, Nadim, you know it's the patriotic thing to do. Ugh.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Johnson's pro-Hunt comment comes because he's fishing for support.

Exactly so.

Which is why it should be possible for Hunt, in his calm and gentlemanly fashion, to come up with some words that put further pressure on the clown’s supporters.

IanB2

Taz said:

GustavoFrings said:

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.

Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus

kle4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Interesting how many of those endorsing Johnson include lines about him having learned his lessons etc.

Huge vibes of "He's changed, Tracy... you didn't see how he was last night - bought me flowers, gave me a foot massage, everything... you don't see the gentle side of him I do..."

Itd be laughable if it were not so vital.

The idea people of that age and experience change so much in 2 months is absurd.

Bottom line is his positives are no longer as effective, and his negatives have massively increased.

Carnyx

Dura_Ace said:

Flegship binned!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-jeremy-hunt-plans-scrap-28299485

Thank goodness for that. Much more important things to spend the limited bawbees on. I wonder how long the Red Arrows will survive.

Scott_xP

It is now 24 hours since Team Boris claimed to have the support of 100 MPs

The number who have backed him publicly currently stands at 61

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1584181148342579201

StuartDickson

IanB2 said:

Taz said:

GustavoFrings said:

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.

Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus

But but but, Sean is smarter and cleverer than everybody in the whole wide world.

Carnyx

StuartDickson said:

IanB2 said:

Taz said:

GustavoFrings said:

Told some publicly declared Boris backers have begun to make overtures to Rishi Sunak's team about switching over.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1584178292919521280

The ending might come quite quickly now.

Isn’t Hodges on a par with Rogerdamus when it comes to predictions.

Still a better track record than Peston or Leondamus

But but but, Sean is smarter and cleverer than everybody in the whole wide world.

I don't mind him having bigger cerebral hemispheres, never mind other anatomical attributes, than a Sperm Whale, if he is wrong about forecasting nuclear doom within a year or two!