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As they say the “optics” don’t look good – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    rcs1000 said:

    DJ41 said:

    DJ41 said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Russian drivers, don't worry if the Kerch bridge is out of action. It is only a short diversion.

    The 985km detour map posted by the Kerch bridge.

    https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1582997402797379584

    Isn't that route within range of Ukrainian artillery as well?
    It's a contemporary battlefield tour. Money back if not satisfied!
    During the Crimean War, tourists led by Mark Twain visited the wrecked city of Sevastopol.

    Thomas Cook ran tours of the Boer War battlefields before the conflict was ended.
    Weren’t there ghouls visiting Flanders in 1919 to see corpses being extracted from collapsed trenches? Also a Thomas Cook product I believe.
    The telly was pretty boring in them days.
    Morning all.

    I still have heard very much about the Ben Wallace / Lloyd Austin conversations from last week.

    What *were* they talking about?

    (Recall that it was US/UK/Ua war games that scoped the current Ukranian offensive.)
    Wallace is giving a statement to the Commons today. Probably quite soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1583012259172741121
    Any odds on HIM resigning?

    Would appear in best interests of UKR as well as UK, to have a functioning government in Westminster ASAP.

    Just when things look bleakest for Putin, the Tories are throwing him a lifeline, just like the Trump-Putinists.
    Provided HMG can keep on paying the bills the crisis in the rest of the government doesn't seem to be causing any particular difficulties for the MoD or the provision of support to Ukraine by the UK.
    Tens of billions "lost" in "market reaction" to Truss-Kwarteng budget.
    Billions spent in supporting Ukraine against Russia.
    Billions spent on royal funeral.

    No particular difficulties for the Treasury, the Bank of England, the MoD or any other ministry. True, that. But the missing fact: it's not their own money they're spending! It's ours!

    One thing is true, as any criminologist knows. If they're not stopped, they'll keep on doing it.
    The royal funeral is thought to have cost between 5 and 10 million... so definitely not "Billions".
    The queen mother's funeral 20 years ago was ~£5m.

    The cost in lost output of a one-day bank holiday is ~£1.4 bn or ~£0.8bn depending on whether you listen to the government or the Big Four.

    https://www.consultancy.uk/news/31174/research-government-overestimates-the-cost-of-bank-holidays
    The funeral did not cost billions. It is possible that there was some diminution in economic output caused by having an additional bank holiday.

    But that is very far from certain: December has two public holidays and is also the peak of annual economic output.
    Yep, but that is in the retail trade, isn't it? Basically the real work is mostly done before then, so to speak, apart from the actual move from the warehouse and the selling. There wouldn't have been any funeral boost, would there? No QE2 Chcoclate Logs or Royal Funeral Cakes.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    News that Russians are starting to get out of Enerhodar. That's the town where the big nuclear plant is based. I hope it has been made clear to Putin that there will be big consequences if anything goes wrong there.

    The most logical military/political measure for the Russian regime to take would be making a mess at ZNPP. Blame it on the Ukrainians, sow an environmental disaster, regroup/retreat and make an appeal for a ceasefire for clean-up. But logic doesn't seem to be a major factor in their decision-making at the moment.

    Other tricks might be deniable use of chemical weapons on the front lines, or for a real wildcard, nuking themselves in Crimea. Now those will be fun times.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    AlistairM said:

    Fail of the day. A Russian defence ministry expert doesn't realise he is already on air and says: "Just don't ask too much about these Iranian drones. We all know they are Iranian, but the authorities don't want to admit it".
    https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1583042663426584578

    What's the said Twitter contributor's view on why the Russian authorities don't want to admit it?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,010

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AlistairM said:

    Russian drivers, don't worry if the Kerch bridge is out of action. It is only a short diversion.

    The 985km detour map posted by the Kerch bridge.

    https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1582997402797379584

    Isn't that route within range of Ukrainian artillery as well?
    It's a contemporary battlefield tour. Money back if not satisfied!
    During the Crimean War, tourists led by Mark Twain visited the wrecked city of Sevastopol.

    Thomas Cook ran tours of the Boer War battlefields before the conflict was ended.
    Weren’t there ghouls visiting Flanders in 1919 to see corpses being extracted from collapsed trenches? Also a Thomas Cook product I believe.
    The telly was pretty boring in them days.
    Morning all.

    I still have heard very much about the Ben Wallace / Lloyd Austin conversations from last week.

    What *were* they talking about?

    (Recall that it was US/UK/Ua war games that scoped the current Ukranian offensive.)
    Wallace is giving a statement to the Commons today. Probably quite soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1583012259172741121
    Any odds on HIM resigning?

    Would appear in best interests of UKR as well as UK, to have a functioning government in Westminster ASAP.

    Just when things look bleakest for Putin, the Tories are throwing him a lifeline, just like the Trump-Putinists.
    Provided HMG can keep on paying the bills the crisis in the rest of the government doesn't seem to be causing any particular difficulties for the MoD or the provision of support to Ukraine by the UK.

    I wouldn't want Liz Truss to be making important decisions if the Russians are cutting our subsea cables, or do vindicate Leon's wildest fears.

    Wallace will see it as his duty to stay in his post and do his job.
    Liz Truss in her last (perhaps for all time?) PMQs pledged to maintain MILITARY aid to UKR at current levels (how reassuring!) but rather pointedly said NOTHING about non-military aid, which is clearly just as significant.
    What she said is:

    We must make sure that Ukraine wins. It can win, it will win, and it must win.

    Your attempts to cast some doubt on her - and the UK's - support for Ukraine are laughable.
    Truss may THINK she's supporting the UKR, but then she likely thinks she's supporting the UK.
    OK, then, since you know so much.

    What should the UK be doing to support Ukraine that it currently isn't?
    Committing to maintaining non-military aid for a start.
    See the quote in my comment from earlier.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,920

    Both sides of the House giving Jesse Norman a hard time over the Manchester China consulate brawl.

    In a way everybody was very supportive of him, because they all wanted the government to do more. In the circumstances, Norman did a very good job of defending a weak government position. Presumably he was held back by his bosses Truss and Cleverly. Perhaps Norman will be the next Foreign Secretary.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Mango said:

    News that Russians are starting to get out of Enerhodar. That's the town where the big nuclear plant is based. I hope it has been made clear to Putin that there will be big consequences if anything goes wrong there.

    The most logical military/political measure for the Russian regime to take would be making a mess at ZNPP. Blame it on the Ukrainians, sow an environmental disaster, regroup/retreat and make an appeal for a ceasefire for clean-up. But logic doesn't seem to be a major factor in their decision-making at the moment.

    Other tricks might be deniable use of chemical weapons on the front lines, or for a real wildcard, nuking themselves in Crimea. Now those will be fun times.
    Which is why it should NOW be made clear, publicly, that Russia will be held accountable for any disaster at the plant. They control it, they're holding the employees hostage. Ukraine has no means to create a nuclear meltdown and what incentive? Creating a nuclear calamity on their own territory?
  • ydoethur said:

    OT
    Schools shouldn’t turn history lessons into ‘comforting stories’, says Cambridge professor
    Prof Robert Tombs made the comments during a meeting of a working group appointed to develop a model history curriculum by 2024

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/19/schools-shouldnt-turn-history-lessons-comforting-stories-says/ (£££)

    Without reading the paywalled article the quote seems reasonable.

    What's the thrust of the article - 'rampant wokism brainwashing our kids'?
    Roughly yes.

    He does have a point that much history as taught in schools is almost laughably bad, but there are two issues with this working group: (1) the real issue is the appalling mess that is the exam system, which is outside their remit. Unless that is reformed to something vaguely sane, any changes to the content are wasted effort and (2) as academies are free to set their own curriculum and the government's stated aim is to convert all schools to academies, there's very little point to a 'model curriculum' anyway.

    I would add that in any case there's very little merit to curriculae imposed from the top, because it's not likely to be responsive to local needs. For example, round here you want to go big on Saxons and the Industrial Revolution because those are the key things that shaped the local area. In Gloucestershire I would want to teach about Romans, the Civil War and the slave trade for much the same reason.
    I would add that the other reason to go for localism, at least as a portion of the curriculum, is that it makes it far easier to do hands on stuff. I regularly get calls from schools asking me to go and do talks or exhibit stuff based on what they are doing in the curriculum. If it is Palaeolithic, Roman or Civil War I can take along loads of stuff and they can have really interesting site visits and tours. If, as a few weeks ago, they ask me to come and show kids some stuff elated to Bronze Age then forget it. There simply isn't any Bronze Age stuff easily accessible in the area and very few BA finds have been made that I can use for showing the kids. Tailoring to what is available locally, at least for a bit of the curriculum, opens up no end of opportunities to get the children really enthused.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915

    A married Labour MP is being investigated over sexual harassment allegations which could lead to him being thrown out of the Commons.

    The male MP is being investigated under parliament’s independent complaints and grievance scheme, The Times understands. A report on his behaviour is due tomorrow.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-accused-of-harassment-56q3n0sdb

    If the report is due out tomorrow as claimed, that is peculiar timing for the leak.

    Has the Times (or the leaker) been sitting on it?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    nico679 said:

    The ERG are apparently threatening legal action if the 1922 committee change the rules to allow a coronation .

    I do wish they’d just fxck off and start their own party .

    Remove the whip from the lot of them, force the issue
    Whom would do the whip removing? I agree that if they need to be excised to allow the party to stay in government then do it. But who has authority - isn't it the PM?

    So -
    1. The party agrees its Sunak / Hunt / Mordaunt
    2. The 22 hand the pearl-handled revolver to Truss
    3. Truss tells King Chuck to call for Mordaunt / Sunak / Hunt
    4. The ring is kissed
    5. First action of the new leader is to remove the whip from the ERG
    If the instal Hunt that's goodbye to their core vote!
    By core I mean me.
This discussion has been closed.