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Is the regent about to become the monarch? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,907
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    Truss on -70 and there are some who think she can survive?
  • ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    Because, again, until the later nineteenth century the Chancellor was a junior Treasury spokesman and in particular, spoke on money matters in the Commons if the First Lord was a peer.

    It persisted into the late nineteenth century - Gladstone was both in 1881, and Balfour was the First Lord but not Prime Minister.
    But Baldwin was also PM and Chancellor simultaneously for six months in 1923. Was it a junior role then too?
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    Interestingly at my gym today quite a bit of politics discussed which is unusual and even talk of protests and riots....
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    Truss is more popular than Prince Andrew though and Vladimir Putin so theres that
  • ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    As were Gladstone and Baldwin for periods of their premiership. Wouldn't wash these days mind.
    Baldwin was only a nominal Chancellor on an interim basis while Reginald McKenna considered whether or not to accept the post, as he delegated day-to-day work to the FST Joynson-Hicks.

    When McKenna finally declined, Baldwin appointed Neville Chamberlain.
    Ah I see
    Anyway I suspect Hunt might appoint Sunak as Chancellor.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    pancakes said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    Because, again, until the later nineteenth century the Chancellor was a junior Treasury spokesman and in particular, spoke on money matters in the Commons if the First Lord was a peer.

    It persisted into the late nineteenth century - Gladstone was both in 1881, and Balfour was the First Lord but not Prime Minister.
    But Baldwin was also PM and Chancellor simultaneously for six months in 1923. Was it a junior role then too?
    See above.

    (And it wasn't six months, it was thirteen weeks.)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    I am not interested in day to day polls in such a fast moving situation

    I am not saying he will become PM , but it is not out of the question and your comments are prejudiced by your dislike of him
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    At some point your MPs have to grow up.
    I think that generally happens about 5 years after you lose your seat.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Until the Tory membership move on from Brexit then they’re going to remain a clear and present danger to the UK and need to be sidelined .

    Truss got in because she went into EU hate on steroids , even though she voted Remain she’s turned into the ERGs gimpess!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
    The membership today actually back Rishi over Truss, zero chance they back Hunt
    The membership are irrelevant in this as if is not going to another tedious and self defeating succession campaign
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
    Given the current polls give the Tories less than 50 seats, it is about survival now. Most Tory MPs won't survive and keep their seats with Hunt, the polling is clear on that, some of them might with Sunak or Mordaunt
    Just taking a step back…

    Your post is extraordinary. You’re not wrong in your analysis, btw. Just pointing out how extraordinary the situation is.

    Politics is bonkers.

    We’re looking at, surely, the biggest election-to-election seat swing… ever?
    Sorry, no, any swing in line with todays polls wouldn’t beat 1931. My grasp of British election history pre-1945 isn’t very good.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I’ve been educated. Wikipedia is great, init?!
  • Michael Gove is wrong. We should expect a hell of a lot of pain for a lot longer than a couple of months.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Michael Gove is wrong.

    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Tory MPs are turning getting rid of Truss into a mission to Mars .

    It’s not that complicated but they seem determined to make it so .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614

    Scott_xP said:

    “Britain cannot go on like this.” @Independent is demanding an election – editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-now-conservative-party-truss-b2205248.html

    As my Granny used to say:

    "I want never gets...."
    She might have said it (my Mum did too) but it's plainly not true.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    Michael Gove is wrong. We should expect a hell of a lot of pain for a lot longer than a couple of months.

    ive noticed food prices increasing very sharply in recent weeks...something to do with a shortage of fertiliser or something
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Or maybe the public have had enough of this kind of bollox? We live in hope.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953

    Scott_xP said:

    “Britain cannot go on like this.” @Independent is demanding an election – editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-now-conservative-party-truss-b2205248.html

    As my Granny used to say:

    "I want never gets...."
    She might have said it (my Mum did too) but it's plainly not true.
    It worked for BoZo. Several times
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    Doesn't matter. Not a question for the public. Even less a question for the self defiling pensioner 25 quidders of the party membership.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    We stuffed business and cost ourselves £100bn a year, but what do experts know?

    We got blue passports!! :smile:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Or maybe the public have had enough of this kind of bollox? We live in hope.
    nah Nigel will be back soon talking about globalist coups and remainer conspiracies and back around we go again
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    Scott_xP said:

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e

    So another Labour idea is going to be implemented. Why don't the Tories just ask RR to be Chancellor?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    Doesn't matter. Not a question for the public. Even less a question for the self defiling pensioner 25 quidders of the party membership.
    A question for Tory MPs who above all want a leader popular enough with the public to save their seats
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    nico679 said:

    Tory MPs are turning getting rid of Truss into a mission to Mars .

    It’s not that complicated but they seem determined to make it so .

    Well, getting it done may be simple, but getting it done right, and so you survive, may not be as simple, and at a cost they are't willing to bear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
  • Scott_xP said:

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e

    If you check back my posts today I have said this several times
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,033

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    When they say "pro-freedom", what they mean is "pro-my-specific-kind-of-freedom-and-I-should-be-free-to-make-jokes-about-uphill-gardening"/
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    I cannot see how we have 2 years of this. Just untenable
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    More gammon being flung about than in a Melton Mowbray factory.
  • murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is miles better as a prospect for the next few years than Truss and the Tories as they are currently configured. I think he has the potential to surprise as much on the upside as Truss has on the downside.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    Extinction event is playing overplayed. The wrinkles and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
    Ok, so some mild hyperbole - it'd still put them at 1997 levels (I mean, they got below 175 then, why not now?), which could put them out of action for a generation, unless the Labour PM does a Truss.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,464
    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715
    rcs1000 said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    When they say "pro-freedom", what they mean is "pro-my-specific-kind-of-freedom-and-I-should-be-free-to-make-jokes-about-uphill-gardening"/
    https://www.instructables.com/Uphill-Gardening/
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 880
    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e

    So another Labour idea is going to be implemented. Why don't the Tories just ask RR to be Chancellor?
    The fact is Hunt can act on these policies and labour cannot

    It was only the hapless Truss who was against windfall taxes notwithstanding that Sunak has already implemented one for this year
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
    The membership today actually back Rishi over Truss, zero chance they back Hunt
    What was the chance a week ago that Hunt would be Chancellor and effectively PM today?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
  • kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    This graph from the Resolution Foundation suggests otherwise;



    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-long-squeeze/

    A really Machiavellian Conservative Party would have aimed at a smallish loss in an early election; if not already, certainly soon. Leave all the misery for the Otherlot Party to manage and take the blame for.

    Truss has really screwed that up in a couple of ways. First, she has made Conservative ratings so low that a smallish loss simply isn't going to happen now. More importantly, the last couple of weeks has been a fiasco that everyone knows about. Labour will not have fun governing after 2024. But they will be able to pin the blame for anyting bad on the Conservatives for quite a long time.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    Starmer cannot have predicted the Tories would collapse, in entirely unprompted fashion, quite so spectacularly. His steady steady approach could have struggled to enthuse people. As it is, he laid the ground well and the Tories then committed seppuku on that ground, so he is very well set despite the mountain to climb from 2019.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,952
    Talking of American cities, as you were, let’s talk about Denver. Which has a really nice clean safe-feeling downtown - mainly devoid of homeless and crazies

    Unfortunately it is completely deserted. A zombie city



    Why? Covid. A local guide told me pre-covid the downtown had 100,000 workers who filled the streets daily. Now it is 10-15,000. And they’re not coming back (except for a drink at night)

    It’s actually quite a sad, eerie feeling

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    More gammon being flung about than in a Melton Mowbray factory.
    Tyndall lives in a world of pork pies.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,379
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.

    And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.

    You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
  • Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    Low bar...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    edited October 2022
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
    If they keep Truss I can, indeed under 100 seats. Sunak however could probably at least get them to around 250 seats+
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,464
    edited October 2022

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Scott_xP said:

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e

    So another Labour idea is going to be implemented. Why don't the Tories just ask RR to be Chancellor?
    The fact is Hunt can act on these policies and labour cannot

    It was only the hapless Truss who was against windfall taxes notwithstanding that Sunak has already implemented one for this year
    You were against them about a week ago.
    Up and down like a Daily Mail headline.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    This graph from the Resolution Foundation suggests otherwise;



    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-long-squeeze/

    By chance I mean trading the near certainty of an election now, for less of one later - it could, indeed, still get worse if that sort of thing pans out, but it remains less certain simpy by virtue of being further away from now, and thus more variables to add to the mix.
  • HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
    Doesn't matter. Not a question for the public. Even less a question for the self defiling pensioner 25 quidders of the party membership.
    A question for Tory MPs who above all want a leader popular enough with the public to save their seats
    The most important attribute for the next leader is to be competent, assure the markets, and show compassion to so many who are suffering

    Hunt fits that description though I would prefer he stays as COE and he has said he does not want to be PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Or maybe the public have had enough of this kind of bollox? We live in hope.
    We're always up for some other kind of bollox instead.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    ihunt said:

    Interestingly at my gym today quite a bit of politics discussed which is unusual and even talk of protests and riots....

    At my gym yesterday there was chit-chat with limping bloke who totalled his bike but luckily escaped with cuts and bruises, a brief discussion about which of two bars left on one rack was the missing one from another rack, I half overheard two blokes discussing something that one of their wives wouldn't let him do, and a bloke asked nicely if a woman had finished with a bit of kit but she hadn't quite yet so he went and did something else. That, and a lot of the usual effort gasps and grunts.

    No mentions of Liz Truss, the cost of living, interest rates or Iranian kamikaze drones whatsoever, thank Christ.

    (Haven't been today, went running.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    Andy_JS said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
    Anti lockdown, anti tax but otherwise socially conservative
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Scott_xP said:

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing to raid the profits of banks and energy companies in an attempt to fill a £40bn fiscal hole through a mix of tax rises and public spending cuts.
    https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e

    If you check back my posts today I have said this several times
    I have been saying it for weeks. It was an obvious move to make.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,998
    Andy_JS said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
    The problem is filtering it to the mind-your-own-business group. The minding-your-business-for-you types are like weeds.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Callaghan went from the Treasury to the Home Office in December 1967. He swapped offices with Roy Jenkins.
  • murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
    In the current climate it can take you into No 10. Not everyone can be exciting and radical and sometimes workaday and reliable is more than good enough.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,383
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
    They were under 175 for 8 years not that long ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,033
    ihunt said:

    algarkirk said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.

    i remember last time labour got in and the tories were wiped out nationalist parties like the bnp and later ukip started to have electoral success. The BNP made big breakthroughs in the 2002 to 2006 period when the Tories were moribund...now we have a much worse economic situation so something like that could well happen again this time on a bigger scale
    I went to the local election pages of the BBC to see the extent of this BNP surge:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2002/local_elections/atoz.stm
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2003/locals/html/atoz.stm#s
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    And weirdly, other than 13 councillors in 2003, there didn't seem to be any surge
  • On the positive side, La Reserve de la Comtesse 2016 is seriously good.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    That’s ridiculous

    Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    Actually I believe that Putin and Zelensky had a disagreement over the truth or falsehood of the miracle of transubstantiation. Though granted I've no idea on which sides of the dispute the two men found themselves.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.

    And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.

    You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
    I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.

    And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,917
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.

    Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).

    Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,313
    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
    It’s been enough to get where he is currently, with eye watering opinion poll leads. As the election nears, so the scrutiny on him and labours policies will ramp up. Right now a 1997 re-run seems likely, but labour need to have some decent policies and convincing arguments.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    Leon said:

    Talking of American cities, as you were, let’s talk about Denver. Which has a really nice clean safe-feeling downtown - mainly devoid of homeless and crazies

    Unfortunately it is completely deserted. A zombie city



    Why? Covid. A local guide told me pre-covid the downtown had 100,000 workers who filled the streets daily. Now it is 10-15,000. And they’re not coming back (except for a drink at night)

    It’s actually quite a sad, eerie feeling

    Are you sure the real reason is not that it is devoid of crazies?
  • HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
    You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps

    I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
  • Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.

    And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.

    You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
    I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.

    And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
    Nah. You don't get to squirm out of it now you have been caught rewriting history. Face it. You made a stupid statement - not your first by a long way - and got called out for it. It is particularly sad that you can't just admit it. But then that is ever your way.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    That’s ridiculous

    Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    Actually I believe that Putin and Zelensky had a disagreement over the truth or falsehood of the miracle of transubstantiation. Though granted I've no idea on which sides of the dispute the two men found themselves.
    Actually it was over the Schleswig-Holstein question. Only three men ever knew the answer. One is dead, one has forgotten, and the other is @Richard_Tyndall
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"

    Marianne Faithfull lived on a wall in Soho for two years...
    She sat and watched as tears went by.
    Why'd she do it?
    Heroin, mostly....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    That’s ridiculous

    Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    No - It was the Enclosure Acts of 1773 He wants to enclose Ukraine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649

    HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
    You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps

    I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
    Neither Thirsk and Melton, which Holinrake has been MP for since 2015, or ultra safe Richmond, Sunak's seat formerly held by Hague, are redwall. Try again
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,167
    Scott_xP said:

    MP confuses Jeremy Hunt as the new Prime Minister https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1581978417054220288/video/1

    Funny. But misleading that you don’t note it’s a parody
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    "They are joking. Who voted for us last time? Pensioners and Brexiteers" - Tory MP - in the i
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
    Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
    First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.

    Second, I didn’t say that.
    Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
    You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.

    And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.

    You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
    I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.

    And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
    Nah. You don't get to squirm out of it now you have been caught rewriting history. Face it. You made a stupid statement - not your first by a long way - and got called out for it. It is particularly sad that you can't just admit it. But then that is ever your way.
    Feel free to quote the offending post if you’re sitting on such a truth-bomb.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
    You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps

    I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
    Neither Thirsk and Melton, which Holinrake has been MP for since 2015, or ultra safe Richmond, Sunak's seat formerly held by Hague, are redwall. Try again
    I do not need to try again on such inane and insulting comments to red wall mps
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,952
    edited October 2022
    America is fucked





  • TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.

    Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).

    Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,167
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Johnson.

    Also Bonar Law.

    Before that, Pitt the Younger.
    Pitt - the man who defeated Napoleon, and nearly bankrupted the London fine wine trade…
    He didn’t defeat Napoleon. He died in 1806 just at the moment Napoleon reached the peak of his power after Austerlitz.

    He laid the foundations and had an aspiration of defeating Napoleon. For a politician that’s enough to claim the credit

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.

    Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).

    Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
    Fake news.
    It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    Winner against Corbyn to Winner against Truss (won’t be her, but still…) - wouldn’t we expect the biggest swing ever?
  • TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.

    Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).

    Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
    Fake news.
    It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
    Would like to agree, but on what I've heard....Maybe I just happened to listen to the wrong ones.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Leon said:

    America is fucked





    Leon did you see this video about the American “food” offer?

    https://twitter.com/mikebradleymke/status/1580381366314598401?s=46&t=sc2PVZg7p214HBxpRZ4YcA
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953

    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.

    The shadow cabinet are generally terrible.

    And infinitely better at every position than the actual cabinet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    Leon said:

    America is fucked





    If you lived in Colorado though, with some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world, would you really want to work in Denver every day rather than work at home and admire the view? If you want a big city lifestyle you would move to New York or Chicago or LA
  • dixiedean said:

    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
    Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
    They were under 175 for 8 years not that long ago.
    FPTP is very cruel once support drops below a certain level.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
    That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.

    Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).

    Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
    Fake news.
    It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
    Would like to agree, but on what I've heard....Maybe I just happened to listen to the wrong ones.
    I used to be a profound Keir skeptic.
    I also used to be very suspicious of the Labour front bench.

    I’ve grudgingly changed my mind on both.

    Nandy, Streeting, Reeves, Phillipson, Lammy, Cooper, Ashworth…

    Add Bryant and Benn (potentially) and you have a high-calibre team.

    Rayner is not really my cup of tea, but I appreciate she reaches places others don’t.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.

    The shadow cabinet are generally terrible.

    And infinitely better at every position than the actual cabinet
    Indeed. The state of British politics is shocking. Where are the the heavyweights of old?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    America is fucked





    If you lived in Colorado though, with some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world, would you really want to work in Denver every day rather than work at home and admire the view? If you want a big city lifestyle you would move to New York or Chicago or LA
    Why does this mean America is fucked? It might mean that there’s going to be a correction in commercial property, sure. It might also mean there’s a wealth reallocation from cities to suburbs/rural, or traditionally blue districts turning red and vice versa. But it doesn’t seem to do much to harm the American dream if you ask me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,998
    rcs1000 said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    When they say "pro-freedom", what they mean is "pro-my-specific-kind-of-freedom-and-I-should-be-free-to-make-jokes-about-uphill-gardening"/
    As opposed to the pro-my-specific-kind-of-freedom-and-I-should-be-free-to-get-people-fired-for-not-believing-my-esoteric-set-of-nostrums

    The belief in freedom in the sense of “freedom for people I don’t like, to do things I don’t approve of” is rather rare
  • Brexiteers discovering the structural dependence of the state on capital was not on my 2022 bingo.



    https://twitter.com/benwansell/status/1582477364046331905
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    glw said:

    FPT:

    What people actually think about Brexit, rather than simplistic binary choices.

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    Well worth reading, even if you don't like the source.

    Over two-thirds of voters (70 per cent) think that, over the medium term, the UK should have a closer relationship with the EU than what we have today, but only a third of the public think that the UK should seek membership of the EU single market at the minimum.


    That's hardly a public endorsement for joining the EU as it actually is, rather than the romantic utopian view die-hard Remainers have.
    As someone who voted Leave, I looked at the result and was quite dismayed at where we ended up.
    48% of people wanted to Remain, so my view was we should've seriously considered EEA or EFTA+
    To leave both the EU and stay outside of EFTA as well was not, in my opinion, delivering what was broadly voted for.

    And given the events in Russia and the Ukraine, I personally think like Finland and Sweden joining NATO that we should rejoin EFTA.

    Maybe Labour will do that.... who knows......
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,370
    HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    murali_s said:

    As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.

    On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.

    On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
    For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
    No wealthy people in the 'red wall' then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.

    The shadow cabinet are generally terrible.

    And infinitely better at every position than the actual cabinet
    Indeed. The state of British politics is shocking. Where are the the heavyweights of old?
    Cooper, Starmer, Hunt, Sunak, Redwood, Wallace, Clark some are still around
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,542
    ihunt said:

    Interestingly at my gym today quite a bit of politics discussed which is unusual and even talk of protests and riots....

    Makes a change from them dissing gay folk I suppose.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Brexiteers discovering the structural dependence of the state on capital was not on my 2022 bingo.



    https://twitter.com/benwansell/status/1582477364046331905

    Haha! Brexit has truly made some people go mad…
This discussion has been closed.