I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
Lord North was both, simultaneously.
Because, again, until the later nineteenth century the Chancellor was a junior Treasury spokesman and in particular, spoke on money matters in the Commons if the First Lord was a peer.
It persisted into the late nineteenth century - Gladstone was both in 1881, and Balfour was the First Lord but not Prime Minister.
But Baldwin was also PM and Chancellor simultaneously for six months in 1923. Was it a junior role then too?
The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
Lord North was both, simultaneously.
As were Gladstone and Baldwin for periods of their premiership. Wouldn't wash these days mind.
Baldwin was only a nominal Chancellor on an interim basis while Reginald McKenna considered whether or not to accept the post, as he delegated day-to-day work to the FST Joynson-Hicks.
When McKenna finally declined, Baldwin appointed Neville Chamberlain.
Ah I see Anyway I suspect Hunt might appoint Sunak as Chancellor.
The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
Lord North was both, simultaneously.
Because, again, until the later nineteenth century the Chancellor was a junior Treasury spokesman and in particular, spoke on money matters in the Commons if the First Lord was a peer.
It persisted into the late nineteenth century - Gladstone was both in 1881, and Balfour was the First Lord but not Prime Minister.
But Baldwin was also PM and Chancellor simultaneously for six months in 1923. Was it a junior role then too?
See above.
(And it wasn't six months, it was thirteen weeks.)
As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.
If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.
Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
At some point your MPs have to grow up.
I think that generally happens about 5 years after you lose your seat.
As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.
If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.
Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
The membership today actually back Rishi over Truss, zero chance they back Hunt
The membership are irrelevant in this as if is not going to another tedious and self defeating succession campaign
As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.
If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.
Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
Given the current polls give the Tories less than 50 seats, it is about survival now. Most Tory MPs won't survive and keep their seats with Hunt, the polling is clear on that, some of them might with Sunak or Mordaunt
Just taking a step back…
Your post is extraordinary. You’re not wrong in your analysis, btw. Just pointing out how extraordinary the situation is.
Politics is bonkers.
We’re looking at, surely, the biggest election-to-election seat swing… ever?
Sorry, no, any swing in line with todays polls wouldn’t beat 1931. My grasp of British election history pre-1945 isn’t very good.
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is miles better as a prospect for the next few years than Truss and the Tories as they are currently configured. I think he has the potential to surprise as much on the upside as Truss has on the downside.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
Extinction event is playing overplayed. The wrinkles and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
Ok, so some mild hyperbole - it'd still put them at 1997 levels (I mean, they got below 175 then, why not now?), which could put them out of action for a generation, unless the Labour PM does a Truss.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.
If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.
Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
The membership today actually back Rishi over Truss, zero chance they back Hunt
What was the chance a week ago that Hunt would be Chancellor and effectively PM today?
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
This graph from the Resolution Foundation suggests otherwise;
A really Machiavellian Conservative Party would have aimed at a smallish loss in an early election; if not already, certainly soon. Leave all the misery for the Otherlot Party to manage and take the blame for.
Truss has really screwed that up in a couple of ways. First, she has made Conservative ratings so low that a smallish loss simply isn't going to happen now. More importantly, the last couple of weeks has been a fiasco that everyone knows about. Labour will not have fun governing after 2024. But they will be able to pin the blame for anyting bad on the Conservatives for quite a long time.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
Starmer cannot have predicted the Tories would collapse, in entirely unprompted fashion, quite so spectacularly. His steady steady approach could have struggled to enthuse people. As it is, he laid the ground well and the Tories then committed seppuku on that ground, so he is very well set despite the mountain to climb from 2019.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
Talking of American cities, as you were, let’s talk about Denver. Which has a really nice clean safe-feeling downtown - mainly devoid of homeless and crazies
Unfortunately it is completely deserted. A zombie city
Why? Covid. A local guide told me pre-covid the downtown had 100,000 workers who filled the streets daily. Now it is 10-15,000. And they’re not coming back (except for a drink at night)
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.
Second, I didn’t say that. Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.
And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.
You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
If they keep Truss I can, indeed under 100 seats. Sunak however could probably at least get them to around 250 seats+
Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?
Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?
So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
This graph from the Resolution Foundation suggests otherwise;
By chance I mean trading the near certainty of an election now, for less of one later - it could, indeed, still get worse if that sort of thing pans out, but it remains less certain simpy by virtue of being further away from now, and thus more variables to add to the mix.
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Interestingly at my gym today quite a bit of politics discussed which is unusual and even talk of protests and riots....
At my gym yesterday there was chit-chat with limping bloke who totalled his bike but luckily escaped with cuts and bruises, a brief discussion about which of two bars left on one rack was the missing one from another rack, I half overheard two blokes discussing something that one of their wives wouldn't let him do, and a bloke asked nicely if a woman had finished with a bit of kit but she hadn't quite yet so he went and did something else. That, and a lot of the usual effort gasps and grunts.
No mentions of Liz Truss, the cost of living, interest rates or Iranian kamikaze drones whatsoever, thank Christ.
Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?
Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?
So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
Anti lockdown, anti tax but otherwise socially conservative
Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?
Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?
So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
Culturally conservative can be of the "minding your own business" variety, ie. people do whatever they like as long as they don't tell other people what to do. So it can be libertarian and culturally conservative at the same time.
The problem is filtering it to the mind-your-own-business group. The minding-your-business-for-you types are like weeds.
To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?
Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
As did Austen Chamberlain.
Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.
Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
Callaghan went from the Treasury to the Home Office in December 1967. He swapped offices with Roy Jenkins.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
In the current climate it can take you into No 10. Not everyone can be exciting and radical and sometimes workaday and reliable is more than good enough.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
They were under 175 for 8 years not that long ago.
I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.
In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.
I agree however just 4 minutes ago.
NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:
"We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"
Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.
What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.
Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.
All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.
i remember last time labour got in and the tories were wiped out nationalist parties like the bnp and later ukip started to have electoral success. The BNP made big breakthroughs in the 2002 to 2006 period when the Tories were moribund...now we have a much worse economic situation so something like that could well happen again this time on a bigger scale
I went to the local election pages of the BBC to see the extent of this BNP surge:
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
That’s ridiculous
Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
Actually I believe that Putin and Zelensky had a disagreement over the truth or falsehood of the miracle of transubstantiation. Though granted I've no idea on which sides of the dispute the two men found themselves.
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.
Second, I didn’t say that. Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.
And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.
You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.
And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
But what does he stand for? Anyone? Not being Tory can only take you so far…
It’s been enough to get where he is currently, with eye watering opinion poll leads. As the election nears, so the scrutiny on him and labours policies will ramp up. Right now a 1997 re-run seems likely, but labour need to have some decent policies and convincing arguments.
Talking of American cities, as you were, let’s talk about Denver. Which has a really nice clean safe-feeling downtown - mainly devoid of homeless and crazies
Unfortunately it is completely deserted. A zombie city
Why? Covid. A local guide told me pre-covid the downtown had 100,000 workers who filled the streets daily. Now it is 10-15,000. And they’re not coming back (except for a drink at night)
It’s actually quite a sad, eerie feeling
Are you sure the real reason is not that it is devoid of crazies?
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps
I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.
Second, I didn’t say that. Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.
And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.
You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.
And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
Nah. You don't get to squirm out of it now you have been caught rewriting history. Face it. You made a stupid statement - not your first by a long way - and got called out for it. It is particularly sad that you can't just admit it. But then that is ever your way.
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
That’s ridiculous
Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
Actually I believe that Putin and Zelensky had a disagreement over the truth or falsehood of the miracle of transubstantiation. Though granted I've no idea on which sides of the dispute the two men found themselves.
Actually it was over the Schleswig-Holstein question. Only three men ever knew the answer. One is dead, one has forgotten, and the other is @Richard_Tyndall
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps
I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
Neither Thirsk and Melton, which Holinrake has been MP for since 2015, or ultra safe Richmond, Sunak's seat formerly held by Hague, are redwall. Try again
I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.
These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.
Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”
Says the man who believes Putin invaded Ukraine because of Brexit. Face it Gammonwalker your credibility is shot.
First of all, the idea of you calling someone else a gammon is truly laughable.
Second, I didn’t say that. Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
You quoted Cameron's claims that Brexit could lead to a European War in support of your claims about Brexit going bad. It is right there on the previous thread no matter how much you might deny it.
And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.
You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
I was making fun of Brexiters who snorted at the supposed unlikelihoods mentioned during the Brexit campaign.
And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
Nah. You don't get to squirm out of it now you have been caught rewriting history. Face it. You made a stupid statement - not your first by a long way - and got called out for it. It is particularly sad that you can't just admit it. But then that is ever your way.
Feel free to quote the offending post if you’re sitting on such a truth-bomb.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
You talk utter tripe and insult many red wall mps
I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
Neither Thirsk and Melton, which Holinrake has been MP for since 2015, or ultra safe Richmond, Sunak's seat formerly held by Hague, are redwall. Try again
I do not need to try again on such inane and insulting comments to red wall mps
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?
Johnson.
Also Bonar Law.
Before that, Pitt the Younger.
Pitt - the man who defeated Napoleon, and nearly bankrupted the London fine wine trade…
He didn’t defeat Napoleon. He died in 1806 just at the moment Napoleon reached the peak of his power after Austerlitz.
He laid the foundations and had an aspiration of defeating Napoleon. For a politician that’s enough to claim the credit
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
Fake news. It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
Fake news. It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
Would like to agree, but on what I've heard....Maybe I just happened to listen to the wrong ones.
If you lived in Colorado though, with some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world, would you really want to work in Denver every day rather than work at home and admire the view? If you want a big city lifestyle you would move to New York or Chicago or LA
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
It's not even about smarts, or how much people like Starmer. Right now they'd face an extinction level event. Playing for time might not change that, but it at least has a chance!
Extinction level event is playing overplayed. The wrinklies and thickos will fall back in line on Election Day. Under no scenario can I see the Tories going under 175 seats.
They were under 175 for 8 years not that long ago.
FPTP is very cruel once support drops below a certain level.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
Starmer is the best Labour leader since Tony Blair.
That’s almost certainly true, though the competition isn’t that tough.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
Starmer is ok. More of a problem is the quality of the Shadow Cabinet generally.
Fake news. It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
Would like to agree, but on what I've heard....Maybe I just happened to listen to the wrong ones.
I used to be a profound Keir skeptic. I also used to be very suspicious of the Labour front bench.
If you lived in Colorado though, with some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world, would you really want to work in Denver every day rather than work at home and admire the view? If you want a big city lifestyle you would move to New York or Chicago or LA
Why does this mean America is fucked? It might mean that there’s going to be a correction in commercial property, sure. It might also mean there’s a wealth reallocation from cities to suburbs/rural, or traditionally blue districts turning red and vice versa. But it doesn’t seem to do much to harm the American dream if you ask me.
Well worth reading, even if you don't like the source.
Over two-thirds of voters (70 per cent) think that, over the medium term, the UK should have a closer relationship with the EU than what we have today, but only a third of the public think that the UK should seek membership of the EU single market at the minimum.
That's hardly a public endorsement for joining the EU as it actually is, rather than the romantic utopian view die-hard Remainers have.
As someone who voted Leave, I looked at the result and was quite dismayed at where we ended up. 48% of people wanted to Remain, so my view was we should've seriously considered EEA or EFTA+ To leave both the EU and stay outside of EFTA as well was not, in my opinion, delivering what was broadly voted for.
And given the events in Russia and the Ukraine, I personally think like Finland and Sweden joining NATO that we should rejoin EFTA.
As much as I want an immediate GE, it’s simply not going to happen. The Tories are smart enough to play the long game. Starmar is pretty hopeless as the YouGov net favourability ratings show; yes, he may be significantly better than the actors from the filth that is Tory party but the guy has zero political awareness.
On your first point, I'm inclined to agree although listening to Rory Stewart on the Rest is Politics earlier he relayed an exchange with a Tory MP who admonished him for constantly saying that MPs will do whatever they can to avoid a GE in order to cling onto their seats. The Tory MP claimed that many first time MPs were sick of the whole thing and wanted out. I'm not 100% convinced because there's a big difference between not wanting to do a job and imminently making yourself unemployed. However, it should certainly be factored into predictions.
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
For the average Tory redwall MP the £84,144 MPs salary is probably the most they have or will ever earn even if some Home Counties Tory MPs might be able to make more money outside
Comments
Anyway I suspect Hunt might appoint Sunak as Chancellor.
(And it wasn't six months, it was thirteen weeks.)
I am not saying he will become PM , but it is not out of the question and your comments are prejudiced by your dislike of him
Truss got in because she went into EU hate on steroids , even though she voted Remain she’s turned into the ERGs gimpess!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election
I’ve been educated. Wikipedia is great, init?!
It’s not that complicated but they seem determined to make it so .
We got blue passports!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y
Second, I didn’t say that.
Which you’d know, if you weren’t putting in the evening shift at Radio Broadmoor.
https://www.ft.com/content/147e9952-33db-4ce8-9a12-96065641860e
On your second, I reckon Starmer's very good at politics.
It was only the hapless Truss who was against windfall taxes notwithstanding that Sunak has already implemented one for this year
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-long-squeeze/
A really Machiavellian Conservative Party would have aimed at a smallish loss in an early election; if not already, certainly soon. Leave all the misery for the Otherlot Party to manage and take the blame for.
Truss has really screwed that up in a couple of ways. First, she has made Conservative ratings so low that a smallish loss simply isn't going to happen now. More importantly, the last couple of weeks has been a fiasco that everyone knows about. Labour will not have fun governing after 2024. But they will be able to pin the blame for anyting bad on the Conservatives for quite a long time.
Unfortunately it is completely deserted. A zombie city
Why? Covid. A local guide told me pre-covid the downtown had 100,000 workers who filled the streets daily. Now it is 10-15,000. And they’re not coming back (except for a drink at night)
It’s actually quite a sad, eerie feeling
And yes you are a Gammon. Continually moaning about the world because it doesn't suit your blinkered view whilst the rest of us are getting on with life and actually talking about things that matter - solutions not whines.
You have become the very thing you claim to detest. Own it.
Up and down like a Daily Mail headline.
Hunt fits that description though I would prefer he stays as COE and he has said he does not want to be PM
Putin invaded Ukraine because of the repeal of the Corn Laws.
No mentions of Liz Truss, the cost of living, interest rates or Iranian kamikaze drones whatsoever, thank Christ.
(Haven't been today, went running.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2002/local_elections/atoz.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2003/locals/html/atoz.stm#s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_local_elections
And weirdly, other than 13 councillors in 2003, there didn't seem to be any surge
And you, of course, rose to the bait, presumably while “getting on with your life”.
Remarkably since Blair came to power Labour have had 4 leaders (Brown, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer) and the Conservatives 7 (Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and about to embark on an 8th).
Starmer does seem to be someone who improves with time, and shows signs of learning from events. His authority has also slowly but surely grown in the party. Look how he’s mended the relationship with Angela Rayner so the two of them are now quite an effective double act.
I personally know Kevin Holindrake who is a highly successful businessman and is a much higher earner, as is Sunak
It’s probably the best Labour front bench since late Blair.
https://twitter.com/mikebradleymke/status/1580381366314598401?s=46&t=sc2PVZg7p214HBxpRZ4YcA
And infinitely better at every position than the actual cabinet
I also used to be very suspicious of the Labour front bench.
I’ve grudgingly changed my mind on both.
Nandy, Streeting, Reeves, Phillipson, Lammy, Cooper, Ashworth…
Add Bryant and Benn (potentially) and you have a high-calibre team.
Rayner is not really my cup of tea, but I appreciate she reaches places others don’t.
The belief in freedom in the sense of “freedom for people I don’t like, to do things I don’t approve of” is rather rare
https://twitter.com/benwansell/status/1582477364046331905
48% of people wanted to Remain, so my view was we should've seriously considered EEA or EFTA+
To leave both the EU and stay outside of EFTA as well was not, in my opinion, delivering what was broadly voted for.
And given the events in Russia and the Ukraine, I personally think like Finland and Sweden joining NATO that we should rejoin EFTA.
Maybe Labour will do that.... who knows......