Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Is the regent about to become the monarch? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
Is the regent about to become the monarch? – politicalbetting.com

Interestingly, immediately? a source who would know gets in touch to say they've don't know of examples of the 1922 chair briefing a cabinet minister before the 1922 meeting … The whole point is for questions to be taken and chaired – nothing to prepare Ministers for …. ? https://t.co/wnldXZWzvx

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • Test
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The pain is baked in: fuel bills and cost of living. The travails of La Belle Dame Truss and her party are comic relief.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Test

    Passed
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    MP confuses Jeremy Hunt as the new Prime Minister https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1581978417054220288/video/1
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    edited October 18
    FPT:

    What people actually think about Brexit, rather than simplistic binary choices.

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    Well worth reading, even if you don't like the source.

    Over two-thirds of voters (70 per cent) think that, over the medium term, the UK should have a closer relationship with the EU than what we have today, but only a third of the public think that the UK should seek membership of the EU single market at the minimum.


    That's hardly a public endorsement for joining the EU as it actually is, rather than the romantic utopian view die-hard Remainers have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Test

    Truss XI lost by an innings and 740 runs.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    Test

    Passed
    That’s the unit test

    Now for

    Integration tests
    Performance tests
    Regressions tests
    QA tests
    Staging tests
    Chaos monkey tests
    Etc
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 18
    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Johnson.

    Also Bonar Law.

    Before that, Pitt the Younger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Love the title.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Johnson.

    Also Bonar Law.

    Before that, Pitt the Younger.
    Thank you.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    Love Gove's imaginary baseball.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    edited October 18
    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    Test

    Passed
    That’s the unit test

    Now for

    Integration tests
    Performance tests
    Regressions tests
    QA tests
    Staging tests
    Chaos monkey tests
    Etc
    Not forgetting, in these days of cyber security: Penetration tests
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Hunt will presumably want nothing to change - he is Regent and has complete power over the Cabinet - unless he is guaranteed the proper premiership??

    This is why I got weak legs and cashed out a little on my Truss gone by Xmas eve bet.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Chaos monkey tests

    We refer to that as "production"...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 637
    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Johnson.

    Also Bonar Law.

    Before that, Pitt the Younger.
    Pitt - the man who defeated Napoleon, and nearly bankrupted the London fine wine trade…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Excl: Britain has paid Rwanda an extra £20 million - to cover the cost of processing migrants.

    This is despite no migrants having been removed to Rwanda, and no prospect of any being sent for months:

    https://bit.ly/3TaGFM4
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Johnson.

    Also Bonar Law.

    Before that, Pitt the Younger.
    Pitt - the man who defeated Napoleon, and nearly bankrupted the London fine wine trade…
    He didn’t defeat Napoleon. He died in 1806 just at the moment Napoleon reached the peak of his power after Austerlitz.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    FPT:

    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    Test

    Passed
    That’s the unit test

    Now for

    Integration tests
    Performance tests
    Regressions tests
    QA tests
    Staging tests
    Chaos monkey tests
    Etc
    Not forgetting, in these days of cyber security: Penetration tests
    That’s @SeanT’s job
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    Scott_xP said:

    Chaos monkey tests

    We refer to that as "production"...
    Production is never that deterministic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 18
    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    The Cakeist Isolationist Fantasist Party. Abbreviated to CIF.

    Guaranteed to clean up?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Baldwin?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203
    pigeon said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    The Cakeist Isolationist Fantasist Party. Abbreviated to CIF.

    Guaranteed to clean up?
    What’s their policy on Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Aliens?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    alex_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Baldwin?
    Baldwin was President of the Board of Trade before being Chancellor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    Test

    Passed
    That’s the unit test

    Now for

    Integration tests
    Performance tests
    Regressions tests
    QA tests
    Staging tests
    Chaos monkey tests
    Etc
    Not forgetting, in these days of cyber security: Penetration tests
    Ooh, matron....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    ydoethur said:

    Test

    Truss XI lost by an innings and 740 runs.
    Nah. Match abandoned and rewarded to opposition. Truss XI didn't know any of the rules and thought the point of the game was to hit the little sticks with the bat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 18

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,844
    ydoethur said:

    Test

    Truss XI lost by an innings and 740 runs.
    Hands up who laid the draw.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    algarkirk said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.

    i remember last time labour got in and the tories were wiped out nationalist parties like the bnp and later ukip started to have electoral success. The BNP made big breakthroughs in the 2002 to 2006 period when the Tories were moribund...now we have a much worse economic situation so something like that could well happen again this time on a bigger scale
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    ohnotnow said:

    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"

    Marianne Faithfull lived on a wall in Soho for two years...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    pigeon said:

    Truss XI didn't know any of the rules

    They knew the rules

    They just thought they didn't apply to them...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    algarkirk said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT:

    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.
    We can't make much progress on that until we see what's in the Labour manifesto, and that ain't happening before an election campaign begins.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,844

    ohnotnow said:

    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"

    Marianne Faithfull lived on a wall in Soho for two years...
    She sat and watched as tears went by.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Is that Michael Gove demonstrating the Vulcan bollock meld?
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 29
    algarkirk said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.

    I don't think Labour can or should be expected to spell that out in much detail until they publish their election manifesto - even then they would be unwise, though, to tie themselves down on every specific.
    Surely HM opposition simply doesn't have access to all the same information and the army of publicly employed advisers that the government has.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,452

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Er... pro-freedom and culturally conservative?

    So, free to marry someone of the same sex and against gay marriages for example?
    Also. Isn't technocrat basically an expert free of political preconceptions or ideologically driven decision making?
    So you can't really be a determinedly anti-globalist, technocratic government.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,124
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    I thought Callaghan swapped jobs with Roy Jenkins after the 1967 devaluation.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ohnotnow said:

    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"

    Marianne Faithfull lived on a wall in Soho for two years...
    She sat and watched as tears went by.
    Why'd she do it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    I thought Callaghan swapped jobs with Roy Jenkins after the 1967 devaluation.
    So he did. My mistake. I thought he resigned and was recalled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Wallace has said no, Sunak has no profile (hence my q about can you go from bb to PM) and a lorra baggage, Hunt presently has the power to affect how things go in the future and seems to have Brady dancing to his tune. It is his to lose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Winston Churchill was an independent backbencher when made Chancellor in 1924.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 18
    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,844
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    FPT as I posted a totally off-topic message seconds before the new thread...

    ---

    OT, but I can't help sympathising. Which may not be a good sign. https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/18/chester-woman-discovered-living-in-a-hedge-for-three-years-17584328/

    "Woman found living in hedge for three years didn’t want to leave her cat"

    Marianne Faithfull lived on a wall in Soho for two years...
    She sat and watched as tears went by.
    Why'd she do it?
    Mick put her up to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    It's been very notable, due to changes of PMs and rounds of Cabinet resignations for the last three, how the tenure of ministers has shortened in the last 6 years.

    Chancellor hasn't been too bad, until this year, but you have to go back to Hague for a Foreign Secretary who lasted more than just over 2 years (and cannot have been a very impactful one, I forgot he had held the position).

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Ishmael_Z said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Wallace has said no, Sunak has no profile (hence my q about can you go from bb to PM) and a lorra baggage, Hunt presently has the power to affect how things go in the future and seems to have Brady dancing to his tune. It is his to lose.
    Hunt’s problem is that a decent chunk of Tory MPs still don’t understand that “cakeism” is not a strategy and that discipline is a pre-requisite to poll recovery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
    True enough, though the original question was about 'backbenchers', and though they have no ministerial experience, opposition leaders are frontbenchers.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,325
    edited October 18
    France suspends Schengen for six months, joining several smaller EU countries which already have such temporary suspensions:

    “France (1 November 2022 – 30 April 2023)
    New terrorist threats, organised criminality and activity of organised groups of smugglers, risk of arrival of persons who could pose a threat among the flow of refugees, irregular migration, secondary movements, the situation at the external border (Ukraine war); all internal borders as well as sea and air borders”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Thing is, what is a great office? For example, there have been a great many very young and inexperienced Chancellor of the Exchequer, because until around 1895 it was in effect the junior Treasury Ministry position much like chief secretary of the treasury now. Similarly, First Lord of the Admiralty was once one of the key posts and now doesn't even exist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Sounds like RefUK
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    Hunt needs to play for time. He needs these two years.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643
    edited October 18

    Is that Michael Gove demonstrating the Vulcan bollock meld?

    It's only Gove doing his thing baby
    It's only Gove that you're feeling
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
    True enough, though the original question was about 'backbenchers', and though they have no ministerial experience, opposition leaders are frontbenchers.
    Ok.

    Wellington!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    And of course they hate Hunt because he voted for Remain in 2016.

    Which makes total sense.

    If you are a rabid wombat with glaucoma.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    edited October 18
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Thing is, what is a great office? For example, there have been a great many very young and inexperienced Chancellor of the Exchequer, because until around 1895 it was in effect the junior Treasury Ministry position much like chief secretary of the treasury now. Similarly, First Lord of the Admiralty was once one of the key posts and now doesn't even exist.
    Well, it's generally accepted in political discourse that it's PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, but as you say the roles change. Home Office no longer includes Justice, does it count? When PMs do much international diplomacy directly is Foreign Secretary really that important? Given their significance in the budget are Health and Work and Pensions not more significant?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    Hunt needs to play for time. He needs these two years.
    He cannot win a GE. But if they think he is the best damage limiter, and they cannot agree on an alternative option (which they cannot) then he could get it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,808
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    At some point your MPs have to grow up.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 18
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
    Given the current polls give the Tories less than 50 seats, it is about survival now. Most Tory MPs won't survive and keep their seats with Hunt, the polling is clear on that, some of them might with Sunak or Mordaunt
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
    True enough, though the original question was about 'backbenchers', and though they have no ministerial experience, opposition leaders are frontbenchers.
    Ok.

    Wellington!
    Well, I could say being a Duke and national hero (in warfare anyway) doesn't count as a simple backbencher, but that would be weaselly, so I concede to you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    And of course they hate Hunt because he voted for Remain in 2016.

    Which makes total sense.

    If you are a rabid wombat with glaucoma.
    Has Truss re-written history and now didn't campaign and vote for Remain after all?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    A Hunt succession would be good for my bank balance but for the country, maybe not. From the briefing about cuts, it sounds like Hunt has contracted a bad case of the George Osbornes. We need a plan to reduce debt in due course, not to eliminate the deficit by next Tuesday.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    edited October 18
    pancakes said:

    algarkirk said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    There hasn't been quite enough discussion about what SKS and Labour would actually do when in government about the impossible task facing them - much the same as the impossible task facing Hunt's government. Winning the next GE is the easy bit.

    I don't think Labour can or should be expected to spell that out in much detail until they publish their election manifesto - even then they would be unwise, though, to tie themselves down on every specific.
    Surely HM opposition simply doesn't have access to all the same information and the army of publicly employed advisers that the government has.
    I see all of that but still am interested in what they will actually do, more than what they say they will do. The reason for the existence of PB is about predicting probabilities of things that are basically unknowable, like what Labour would do in office when all options are intolerable or impossible, or the 3.20 at Navan tomorrow (Shabaaby e/w, don't bet the farm DYOR).

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    And of course they hate Hunt because he voted for Remain in 2016.

    Which makes total sense.

    If you are a rabid wombat with glaucoma.
    Has Truss re-written history and now didn't campaign and vote for Remain after all?
    For reasons that escape me it's ok that she changed her mind, but Sunak, who never changed his mind from Leave, is a remainer traitor.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
    True enough, though the original question was about 'backbenchers', and though they have no ministerial experience, opposition leaders are frontbenchers.
    Ok.

    Wellington!
    As Master General of the Ordnance, he was (unusually) given a seat in cabinet.

    Remember, again, until the late nineteenth century there was nothing approaching a definitive list of what was, or wasn't, a cabinet post. Cabinet was whoever the incumbent senior minister summoned to attend it. The only people who were in it as of right were the Foreign Secretary and Lord Chancellor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    “Britain cannot go on like this.” @Independent is demanding an election – editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-now-conservative-party-truss-b2205248.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    As were Gladstone and Baldwin for periods of their premiership. Wouldn't wash these days mind.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    Scott_xP said:

    “Britain cannot go on like this.” @Independent is demanding an election – editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-now-conservative-party-truss-b2205248.html

    Well that's nailed on now then, if the Independent wants one (!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    Because, again, until the later nineteenth century the Chancellor was a junior Treasury spokesman and in particular, spoke on money matters in the Commons if the First Lord was a peer.

    It persisted into the late nineteenth century - Gladstone was both in 1881, and Balfour was the First Lord but not Prime Minister.
  • HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 18
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
    Given the current polls give the Tories less than 50 seats, it is about survival now. Most Tory MPs won't survive and keep their seats with Hunt, the polling is clear on that, some of them might with Sunak or Mordaunt
    Just taking a step back…

    Your post is extraordinary. You’re not wrong in your analysis, btw. Just pointing out how extraordinary the situation is.

    Politics is bonkers.

    We’re looking at, surely, the biggest election-to-election seat swing… ever?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Scott_xP said:

    “Britain cannot go on like this.” @Independent is demanding an election – editorial https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-now-conservative-party-truss-b2205248.html

    As my Granny used to say:

    "I want never gets...."
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620
    pigeon said:

    FPT:


    I'd have no problem with the triple lock being swapped to finance higher defence spending.

    In fact, I'd view it as wholly appropriate.

    I agree however just 4 minutes ago.

    NEW: Cabinet Office Minister Brendan Clarke-Smith tells @JPonpolitics on @TimesRadio pensioners can breathe easily tonight on a their pensions being up-rated inline with with inflation:

    "We want to look after our pensioners. The triple lock was a manifesto commitment"


    https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1582432983675703297
    Doesn’t mean they can't be taxed. (Or does it; I've never bothered to understand it)
    They could be but they won't. The Tories will never attack what they perceive as their client vote. At least I don't think they will. Hunt may prove me wrong in which case more power to him.

    What is daft is that there will be a significant portion of those pensioners and near pensioners who can look beyond their own self interest and realise their benefits come at the expense of their children and grandchildren. I actually think the smack back against any government who got rid of the triple lock or starting taxing pensioners would be no where near as bad as politicians and pundits think. I would love to be proved right on this but I doubt I will get the chance.
    As I wrote earlier, Dick, Hunt has a once in a generation opportunity to rid us of the Lock. I think he'll do it, but you may be right so I won't fall off my bathchair if he doesn't.
    Indeed. I do desperately want to be wrong about this and see a politician do something because it is the right thing to do for the country rather even though they think it will be politically damaging to them. Hunt, for all the criticism directed at him in the past, might be the person to grasp this rare opportunity.

    Who knows, he might even get to like the idea and start taking some more of the electorally damaging but correct decisions for the long term good of the country.
    In this discussion Hunt is being assigned agency he does not have. There are not the votes in the Commons to remove the triple lock. Labour will vote against as would at least 50 Tory MPs, probably a lot more.
    I am not so sure about that. Of course you may well be right but I think the mood at the moment is such that he could get away with it. Indeed it is worth remembering that when the vote on the Triple lock came before the house last September, Labour did not support retaining it. Instead they abstained. So there is at least some element of realism at work there.
    We all know how a budget vote on ending the triple lock will turn out. Labour will decide, after careful consideration, that making poor, vulnerable pensioners with scarcely two pennies to rub together pay the cost of the Kamikwazi budget and multi-million pound bonuses for evil City bankers is abhorrent, and vote against.

    All the Tory backbenchers will then be made to leave their fingerprints on the bloody knife. They do it, bye bye grey vote. They refuse, general election. Checkmate, crown Starmer King.
    But that is the inevitable result anyway. Any Tory hopes of winning the next election are delusional. Just like Major's were after the ERM debacle. I suspect Hunt realises it. What we need is for the rest of the party to realise it and understand that their best chance of limiting the damage is to start to act in the national interest.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Scott_xP said:
    I hunkered down like it was the Harrods Sale, and watched the European Research Group arrive in dribs, drabs and the occasional straightjacket.

    These are the true believers: if they’re angry at Liz for anything, it’s for not keeping the mini-Budget. Lord Frost, John Redwood, Kate Hoey, Jacob, Fabbers, the magnificent David Campell Bannerman dragging a suitcase - full, no doubt, of Monetarist literature - and Steve “Muscles” Baker.

    Sir William Cash spread his arms like Jolson, and sang, “Here we goooo!”


    @Richard_Tyndall - that’s you, that is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    To repeat a question i think I posed yesterday has there ever been a backbench to great Office of State transition in general, and a bb to PM one in particular?

    Boris went from backbencher to Foreign Secretary.
    As did Austen Chamberlain.

    Callaghan went from the backbenches straight to the Home Office. So did Patel.

    Edit - George Goschen was appointed CofE in 1886 despite not even being an MP if that counts.
    Patel had previously been in the Cabinet though - I feel like the true test is those without past Cabinet experience going straight into a Great Office.
    Tony Blair
    True enough, though the original question was about 'backbenchers', and though they have no ministerial experience, opposition leaders are frontbenchers.
    Ok.

    Wellington!
    As Master General of the Ordnance, he was (unusually) given a seat in cabinet.

    Remember, again, until the late nineteenth century there was nothing approaching a definitive list of what was, or wasn't, a cabinet post. Cabinet was whoever the incumbent senior minister summoned to attend it. The only people who were in it as of right were the Foreign Secretary and Lord Chancellor.
    Ok, fair cop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 18

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    The thing about Hunt getting the top job is it requires yet another new Chancellor. I'm struggling to see it.
    Lord North was both, simultaneously.
    As were Gladstone and Baldwin for periods of their premiership. Wouldn't wash these days mind.
    Baldwin was only a nominal Chancellor on an interim basis while Reginald McKenna considered whether or not to accept the post, as he delegated day-to-day work to the FST Joynson-Hicks.

    When McKenna finally declined, Baldwin appointed Neville Chamberlain.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    And of course they hate Hunt because he voted for Remain in 2016.

    Which makes total sense.

    If you are a rabid wombat with glaucoma.
    Do we know what percentage of Cameron's Tory Party and Cabinet voted Remain in 2016? Was it a majority?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    I think he's a decent chance of being right. The longer Hunt is (as some see it) de facto PM and it is working (for the economy and, they hope, recovering the Tory polling position), then his personal ratings will probably improve as Tories at least feel more reassured, and so a better chance he could get the top job officially. But equally, if they need a new PM now, then putting him in doesn't really work unless they sign up exactly to his plans.
  • HYUFD said:

    Freddie Sayers
    @freddiesayers
    ·
    1h
    Suddenly there is wide open space for a new populist movement in the UK:

    - anti-globalist/technocrat
    - pro-freedom
    - culturally conservative
    - non free market-fundamentalist

    Neither Tories or Labour anywhere near. Will anyone emerge to seize the opportunity?

    Sounds like RefUK
    No hope then
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Column:Tories made a choice to give up on grown-up politics and that's a hole on the political balance sheet Jeremy Hunt can't fix. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/18/liz-truss-tory-government-mess
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
    The membership today actually back Rishi over Truss, zero chance they back Hunt
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Who cares about the idiotic membership who will be sidelined anyway
    Whilst things are too urgent for them to be involved, simply on necessary timescales (and the problem of avoiding them is one reason Truss remains in post), there is a difference between not involving them and provoking them.

    I don't know why members would dislike Hunt, who's always struck me as an unobjectionable figure (even the hate at him as Health secretary wasn't that vicious), but it'd probably be best if they could find a new leader not entirely disliked by the members. Frankly, that rules out Rishi too, since even the Truss/Sunak ratio now with them is not overwhelming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 18

    HYUFD said:

    No chance Hunt becomes PM, Yougov today had him with lower favourable ratings amongst the public than Boris, let alone Rishi and Mordaunt.

    However he will effectively manage the government with Truss as his puppet until the next leader and PM is chosen by Tory MPs, probably Rishi

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=zamITsGRmbKNFgwDwmgcfw

    He has every chance even though you do not like him
    Yougov net favourability ratings poll today says it all

    Keir Starmer: -5 (down 7 from 11-12 Oct)
    Penny Mordaunt -17
    Rishi Sunak: -21 (up 14 from 24-25 Aug)
    Boris Johnson: -36 (up 4 from 8-9 Aug)
    Jeremy Hunt: -41 (up 7 from 13-14 Jul)
    Liz Truss: -70 (down 14 from 11-13 Oct)

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582280655953502208?s=20&t=MAp9LD95SgSCT8P5mm2jjQ
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    ping said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    As I posted earlier, Sunak cannot take over unopposed. Too many enemies. As amusing as it would be to see, I suspect Mordaunt is the same.

    If Wallace refuses the crown (thrice?) then that only really leaves Hunt as the last one standing with not enough enemies to block his coronation. He did himself no harm on Monday presentationally it must be said.

    Hunt has more enemies in the parliamentary party than Rishi and most Tory members hate Hunt, he polled significantly lower amongst Tory members in 2019 than Rishi did with Tory members last month
    Is the enmity he faces stronger than that Sunak does from the Johnson/Trussites though? When MPs choose it’s not about the most favoured but the least unfavoured.
    Given the current polls give the Tories less than 50 seats, it is about survival now. Most Tory MPs won't survive and keep their seats with Hunt, the polling is clear on that, some of them might with Sunak or Mordaunt
    Just taking a step back…

    Your post is extraordinary. You’re not wrong in your analysis, btw. Just pointing out how extraordinary the situation is.

    Politics is bonkers.

    We’re looking at, surely, the biggest election-to-election seat swing… ever?
    If the Tories lost over 300 seats it would be, yes. The previous single party* record is 235 by Labour in 1931.

    *The Unionists lost 246 seats in 1906 but around 20 were Liberal Unionists.
This discussion has been closed.