In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
I agree. It would be more like 30% if Truss were seeking re-election as PM next month.
One consequence of the last few days is that a future Starmer government is going to come under huge pressure for a rejoin referendum. The Brexit / Singapore-on-Thames dream is now dead in the water.
Rejoin ref IndyRef2 PR
too many things too quickly.
If Labour has a majority it's hard to see how IndyRef2 comes into place and likewise rejoining has to be a longer term project.
The important change in the next election is to change our electoral system so that we aren't left with a 2 party system where 1 or other has the risk of being hijacked towards the extremes.
Rejoining won’t happen anytime soon and why would the EU have us given the trouble we have been.
A closer relationship is the best we can hope for.
The relationdhip we have now is fine tbh. There is a whole world to forge ties with, without all the EU bulllshit
Have you come from mars?
No, i wafted in from paradise (bonus points for actress/model and product advertised)
Why limit ourselves to the EU when we can have the herbs and spices of four continents?
I can get that in Tesco...
Even after Brexit? That’s amazing, I thought Brexit was the end of the world.
TBH, there are gaps on the spice shelves. Quite a lot of them. I had trouble getting a few like ginger, paprika and even mixed herbs. No tomato puree either...
Tbf there are gaps on shelves everywhere in tbe world. Check out the number of container ships sitting idle outside Shanghai and other big commercial ports. Shortages will be commonplace next year. At some point we will stop gawking at our own clusterfuck and realise the multifuck happening.
Yes, but tomato puree and mixed herbs don't come from China on container ships. They tend to come from what used to be called the Continent.
Tomato products are on a general shortage due to production costs soaring. I expect spices are in the same boat. I would be extremely surprised if it were a brexit issue. Or a UK specific issue
No fresh tomatoes last week, for some reason.
There was a tomato crop issue this year, a lot of priducers have just stopped due to rising costs etc. There will be fresh tomato shortages all winter
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
I take your point. Even in election late 24 there will be lack of growth, recession, inflation, high interest rates all still very fresh in memory if not still ongoing to some degree.
Truth is, none of us know what the next election PV will be, I think it’s even harder to guess now than 8 weeks ago, even if we did know the PV the putting it into a seat calculator could return very different than the actual result - anti Tory coalition etc. But, for a long 2 years we will all now believe what we want to believe much like the only right poll is the one we like most.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
I agree. It would be more like 30% if Truss were seeking re-election as PM next month.
I would like you to be correct , but would not expect it to happen in truth. Huge poll leads are almost always very 'frothy' - as we saw with Theresa May's stonking margins in the first half of the 2017 campaign. It also proved true in 1997 and 2001 - despite the Labour landslides. Even Thatcher's 1983 landslide was not as overwhelming as the polls had been predicting.
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
James Forsyth has suggested this is the biggest UK policy mistake since Suez. Honestly why do Conservatives keep going on about Suez? Do they believe the Empire would still be with us today were it not for Eisenhauer pulling the plug on us? The second Iraq war seems like a far worse mistake. And what of the enormous financial and property bubble pre-2008?
Neither am I convinced that this is such a national disaster. Embarrassing yes. Hunt has basically taken us back to where we were pre-statement. A ludicrous unforced error, yes but terrible mistakes are not ones that are easily reversed like this one. We do actually have an opportunity now under a new government to restore some credibility. With the liar Johnson gone from No 10 I expect a deal is possible with the EU over Northern Ireland. Don't forget much of the loss in market confidence has been due to the threat of trade war with our major trading partner. Gas prices are falling. There will be a painful rise in interest rates but the economy will re-balance and after 15 years of depression economics we might get back to normality.
Is the grass greener on the other side? Perhaps. But the US has big political problems. The Eurozone has major economic issues. All is not lost - yet.
This disaster is notable for not having yet been given a peppy moniker like Black Wednesday or Taper Tantrum. Probably too late for one to stick now.
Whether it is remembered will depend on that, and on whether similar wobbles overcome other economies in the next year or not.
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
Bit early to be totally slaughtered on the the old homemade ginger wine but each to their own.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
I’m still waiting for Mrs May’s genius 4D plan to deliver a soft Brexit.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
So how does she manage PMQs this week and then again next week?
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
I want the tories gone as much as the next man, but believing in these polls at the moment, is a one-way ticket to the poor house, there is no way these numbers would be replicated at a GE, its almost certainly 2 years away, time enough for the right wing media to train their guns on their true enemy, the Labour Party, and as usual they will throw everything at Starmer, enough for the stupid and gullible to think, I will give the Tories one last chance, I still believe the Tories floor is around 30 %, but that could still provide a drubbing
Labour will continue with their broken business model, always heaping more expenditure on the private sector to build up the public sector. Except, the past two weeks has shown they won't have the headroom to borrow. So it will be taxes on the private sector.
Nearer the election, they will have searching questions - on just how much extra tax.
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
So how does she manage PMQs this week and then again next week?
What are the odds that the PM does NOT show for PMQs on Wednesday? Guessing better than even?
James Forsyth has suggested this is the biggest UK policy mistake since Suez. Honestly why do Conservatives keep going on about Suez? Do they believe the Empire would still be with us today were it not for Eisenhauer pulling the plug on us? The second Iraq war seems like a far worse mistake. And what of the enormous financial and property bubble pre-2008?
Neither am I convinced that this is such a national disaster. Embarrassing yes. Hunt has basically taken us back to where we were pre-statement. A ludicrous unforced error, yes but terrible mistakes are not ones that are easily reversed like this one. We do actually have an opportunity now under a new government to restore some credibility. With the liar Johnson gone from No 10 I expect a deal is possible with the EU over Northern Ireland. Don't forget much of the loss in market confidence has been due to the threat of trade war with our major trading partner. Gas prices are falling. There will be a painful rise in interest rates but the economy will re-balance and after 15 years of depression economics we might get back to normality.
Is the grass greener on the other side? Perhaps. But the US has big political problems. The Eurozone has major economic issues. All is not lost - yet.
This disaster is notable for not having yet been given a peppy moniker like Black Wednesday or Taper Tantrum. Probably too late for one to stick now.
Whether it is remembered will depend on that, and on whether similar wobbles overcome other economies in the next year or not.
It's the Trussterfuck. But that's not a name Huw Edwards can use three times a week on the News At Ten for the next decade.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
So how does she manage PMQs this week and then again next week?
What are the odds that the PM does NOT show for PMQs on Wednesday? Guessing better than even?
Looks like this BBC update timed at 7.25pm is what moved the Exit Date market:
"Prime Minister Liz Truss has acknowledged "mistakes have been made" when meeting the 100-strong One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs, Conservative Party chairman Jake Berry has said.
He told journalists "unity" had been the focus of the meeting and that the prime minister was "bringing the party together".
Berry also said former Health Secretary Matt Hancock made a "really good intervention", saying that "we've got to get behind the PM"."
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
The problem is that unless there is virtually complete consensus within the Tory party we end up with another leadership election and probably another inappropriate leader
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
It's a massive what if situation, had she managed that, but that element of it was pretty clear.
As for Rishi, he has negative mandate (as much as such a thing matters), as he was rejected by the Members, whereas the others even though they did worse than Rishi are more acceptable as failed candidates as they were not specifically rejected by members.
No way Truss leaves before Christmas. No way. She’s gamed this well in advance. 4D chess. Trusst in the plan. She’s got vision while the rest of are struggling to find our bifocals.
So how does she manage PMQs this week and then again next week?
What are the odds that the PM does NOT show for PMQs on Wednesday? Guessing better than even?
She’ll need a season ticket to Kyiv to keep her away
Shapps Slaps! Take a Punt on Hunt I like my Coffey Strong and (in the) Black Badenoch is Goodenough Nifty Chishti Ravers for Bravers Give Tom a Tug
Alby Costa - he won’t costya Time for Blunt, not another useless person
Peter Bone setting the tone Jacob Rees Mogg the sexy greased hog Sir Christopher Chope for stability and hope Priti please Wee Dougie Ross gives a toss Esther Mcvey, wahey! Andrew Bridgen gives your future a good ridgin Johnny Mercer your PM and purser and of course Mark Francois, c*nt
It’s very clear that Elon Musk is transmitting a message for Putin. There was a conference in Aspen in late September when Musk offered a version of what was in his tweet — including the recognition of Crimea as Russian because it’s been mostly Russian since the 1780s — and the suggestion that the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia should be up for negotiation, because there should be guaranteed water supplies to Crimea. He made this suggestion before Putin’s annexation of those two territories on September 30. It was a very specific reference. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia essentially control all the water supplies to Crimea. Crimea is a dry peninsula. It has aquifers, but it doesn’t have rivers. It’s dependent on water from the Dnipro River that flows through a canal from Kherson. It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself. The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin.
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
I want the tories gone as much as the next man, but believing in these polls at the moment, is a one-way ticket to the poor house, there is no way these numbers would be replicated at a GE, its almost certainly 2 years away, time enough for the right wing media to train their guns on their true enemy, the Labour Party, and as usual they will throw everything at Starmer, enough for the stupid and gullible to think, I will give the Tories one last chance, I still believe the Tories floor is around 30 %, but that could still provide a drubbing
Labour will continue with their broken business model, always heaping more expenditure on the private sector to build up the public sector. Except, the past two weeks has shown they won't have the headroom to borrow. So it will be taxes on the private sector.
Nearer the election, they will have searching questions - on just how much extra tax.
It's also going to make Starmer personally much more cautious.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
i think the tories will dither now Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris Hunt: hated by the membership Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
What the 2017GE showed us is that a party can lose a lot of support during an election campaign if it's election campaign is crap.
Most of the time this doesn't happen because most of the time both sides are at least reasonably competent.
If Truss fights an election campaign over the next few weeks such an election campaign would be awful beyond compare.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
i think the tories will dither now Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris Hunt: hated by the membership Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
Mordaunt was tested under pressure today. Membership deserve hunting down with hounds by Ramsay Bolton.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
i think the tories will dither now Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris Hunt: hated by the membership Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
i think the tories will dither now Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris Hunt: hated by the membership Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
It's quite hard to keep a PM "hidden away most of the time". People will notice.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Brilliant strategy from Truss. You see, having deposed Kwarteng, Mordaunt and Hunt fight themselves for the top prize, exhausting one another, and LT emerges the unchallenged mistress of the Tory Party. She’s brilliant! Brilliant! The next GE is in the bag.
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
Corbyn 2019 proves your point too.
Against your point is how forgiving voters are after 14 years. The fact Corbyn Labour got as many votes as they did last time is not a good omen for the Tory’s. Mid 20% for the Tories is quite possible, because what would be an effective pitch whatever leader they fight the next one on - they don’t seem United at the moment, they seem a party at war between at least three of four different understandings what their ethos and policies should be going forward.
Perhaps PB Tories and PB exTories should post less about what wins the next election, more about which ethos should win out and guide the party onwards regardless of next election.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
Or last as it's also called in a two-horse race. And a race in which both candidates were selected from a much wider field by MPs. That's why many members would not agree that he has a mandate.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 16m 😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Well, get on with it. Stop talking and start doing.
i think the tories will dither now Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris Hunt: hated by the membership Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
Yes. Problem is Figurehead hidden away most of the time's Questions every Wednesday.
It may be worth noting that Hunt has now breached the rule, long standing since the 1992 election, lost by Labour on tax issues, in which no party can say clearly and distinctly "taxes will go up". Hunt said it today. No promises. No sunlit uplands.
Is it possible this could lead to a small return to grown up politics on this subject. It has tainted and distorted party politics for 30 years, and led to that special sort of weird politicsspeak always used when the subject came up.
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
What the 2017GE showed us is that a party can lose a lot of support during an election campaign if it's election campaign is crap.
Most of the time this doesn't happen because most of the time both sides are at least reasonably competent.
If Truss fights an election campaign over the next few weeks such an election campaign would be awful beyond compare.
Fundamentally you cannot run an election campaign with Liz Truss as your leader. Every single promise will be met with:
1. How can you guarantee this won’t bork the economy? The stuff you did when you became PM did, so your judgement on these things isn’t very good.
2. How can you promise that you’ll implement any of this? Everything you promised last time, you rowed back from.
The very idea that you can put this PM in charge of an election campaign is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. I don’t believe the Tories will poll 30 points behind Labour in a GE when it comes - but if Liz Truss is still their leader, I wouldn’t bet against it.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Hasn't the past few weeks been evidence enough?
Mordaunt, good candidate, no experience in senior levels of government, still being frozen out of that as Leader of the House, clearly the plan was to keep her frozen out of responsibility for years. At least Truss had experience - and revealed herself to be simply unable to step up and use it.
Shapps Slaps! Take a Punt on Hunt I like my Coffey Strong and (in the) Black Badenoch is Goodenough Nifty Chishti Ravers for Bravers Give Tom a Tug
Alby Costa - he won’t costya Time for Blunt, not another useless person
Peter Bone setting the tone Jacob Rees Mogg the sexy greased hog Sir Christopher Chope for stability and hope Priti please Wee Dougie Ross gives a toss Esther Mcvey, wahey! Andrew Bridgen gives your future a good ridgin Johnny Mercer your PM and purser and of course Mark Francois, c*nt
After the 1997 election, someone at the Telegraph (probably Craig Brown, come to think of it) wrote clerihews for, ooh, 20 or so of the defeated Cinservative candidates. I enjoy a clerihew and wish I'd kept it. The only two I remember are: "Edwina Currie Left in a hurry. Edwina on the wane? Cinservative gain!" and "Sir Nicholas Bonsor? By God, he's gone sir! Not to worry because I was never entirely certain which one he was."
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Hasn't the past few weeks been evidence enough?
Ah, but this is when she’s gotten the job and tried to put in place her crazy ideas.
In a contest with Tory members voting, she was always going to win against Sunak. She was Liz “Trade Deals” Truss, the Great Brexit Queen [ignore that she voted remain]. Our new Maggie.
It’s very clear that Elon Musk is transmitting a message for Putin. There was a conference in Aspen in late September when Musk offered a version of what was in his tweet — including the recognition of Crimea as Russian because it’s been mostly Russian since the 1780s — and the suggestion that the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia should be up for negotiation, because there should be guaranteed water supplies to Crimea. He made this suggestion before Putin’s annexation of those two territories on September 30. It was a very specific reference. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia essentially control all the water supplies to Crimea. Crimea is a dry peninsula. It has aquifers, but it doesn’t have rivers. It’s dependent on water from the Dnipro River that flows through a canal from Kherson. It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself. The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin.
Since Crimea has not 'been mostly Russian since the 1780s' it is *all* a message from Putin.
For the record - it became part of Russia in 1921, and did not become even substantially ethnically Russian until 1946-47.
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better. https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better. https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
Farage called what has happened the last few weeks a globalist coup tonite
It does quite clearly show that what spivs, speculators, central bankers and failed politicians and economists in unelected global organisations think trumps government. Twas ever thus.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Hasn't the past few weeks been evidence enough?
Mordaunt, good candidate, no experience in senior levels of government, still being frozen out of that as Leader of the House, clearly the plan was to keep her frozen out of responsibility for years. At least Truss had experience - and revealed herself to be simply unable to step up and use it.
Truss was the most experienced cabinet member at the leadership election. She won and has proved to be incapable. Tony Blair had zero cabinet experience. David Cameron had zero cabinet experience. Cabinet "experience" really isn't all it is cracked up to be. Amazed people still don't get this.
A gorgeous autumn afternoon backing losers at Windsor may not be Colorado but it's a world away from the machinations of Westminster.
I wonder the extent to which Conservative MPs now have buyers' remorse. Would a PM Mordaunt be in the same position as the current incumbent? It seems implausible - she came out swinging for her Prime Minister today and that display of "loyalty" won't go unnoticed.
Hunt did what we needed to do over the weekend and this morning (in concert with other factors) to stabilise and steady the markets but economically we seem in a different place from three weeks ago. As I said last evening, the Magic Money tree has been cut up and the stump burned - Prudence is back in the Presidential Suite and it seem the "compassionate Conservative" (a phrase I first heard used by George W Bush) is now in favour.
Whether the electorate will consider it compassionate or self-serving is another matter and the tone of Hunt's ominous warnings suggest prudence will dictate compassion is in short supply. This may not just be the reckoning for Kwarteng's absurdity but for the whole Covid response and post-Covid response.
Truss's behaviour today has been extraordinary - I cannot imagine any other Prime Minister who wouldn't have tried to come out swinging but to use Mordaunt as a human shield suggests a diminution in extremis. After just six weeks, her meteoric descent will likely end more in the manner of Chicxulub but whether the Conservative Party itself can survive the impact is the longer-term question.
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Actually I think Rishi could have beaten Penny. Penny had been through a torrid campaign of negative briefings and the Daily Mail gunning for her. They’d have continued to portray her as an evil woke bogeywoman and I think it would have given Rishi an angle to attack her on the right on social issues.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Hasn't the past few weeks been evidence enough?
Mordaunt, good candidate, no experience in senior levels of government, still being frozen out of that as Leader of the House, clearly the plan was to keep her frozen out of responsibility for years. At least Truss had experience - and revealed herself to be simply unable to step up and use it.
Truss was the most experienced cabinet member at the leadership election. She won and has proved to be incapable. Tony Blair had zero cabinet experience. David Cameron had zero cabinet experience. Cabinet "experience" really isn't all it is cracked up to be. Amazed people still don't get this.
Experience is simply the most plausible way to make your offer. Blair and Cameron both had an offer, other than being on telly. Mordaunt did not.
Comments
Liz Truss Approval Rating (16 October):
Disapprove: 70% (+8)
Approve: 9% (-5)
Net: -61% (-13)
Changes +/- 13 October
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1582049125448945664
Two questions: who are the 9%? And how on Earth do we find enough psychiatric care places for them all?
Sunak is another spiv and was an indispensable enabler of Johnsonism.
Mordaunt and Wallace are both essentially untested.
I want the Tories out big-style, but this is what’s best for the country.
Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
·
19m
Will Truss be PM by Xmas? Hunt says he thinks she will. And he also said he “ruled out” being PM
She goes tomorrow.
So therefore no chance of getting to be PM with this clown show.
I fully expect the new PM to be facing PMQs next Wednesday and it to be Patel or Braverman given the party's recent track record.
Truth is, none of us know what the next election PV will be, I think it’s even harder to guess now than 8 weeks ago, even if we did know the PV the putting it into a seat calculator could return very different than the actual result - anti Tory coalition etc. But, for a long 2 years we will all now believe what we want to believe much like the only right poll is the one we like most.
Jeez.
It is like a rerun of some terrible 'B' movie involving the living dead and dodgy vibrating scenery.
David Miliband, Andrea Leadsom etc all clear lays.
Take a Punt on Hunt
I like my Coffey Strong and (in the) Black
Badenoch is Goodenough
Nifty Chishti
Ravers for Bravers
Give Tom a Tug
Whether it is remembered will depend on that, and on whether similar wobbles overcome other economies in the next year or not.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
Maybe not the most appealing slogan...
As Andrew Senteance points out Jeremy Hunt's new economic council seems dominated by people from the city. A lack of business and academic economists.
Time for Blunt, not another useless person
Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
·
16m
😔 There were two prime ministerial performances in the House of Commons on Monday, but neither of them were delivered by Liz Truss.
Mood in the government tonight is bleak. “This is not sustainable," one minister says.
Liz Truss - undependable support for whatever you think it is she's supporting.
But even I didn't realize that the Liz Truss Truss was guaranteed to cause catastrophic rupture in Tory support.
Nearer the election, they will have searching questions - on just how much extra tax.
Starting with that SPAD of his.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1581986552246603776?s=20&t=pAaHO2IC7bBRXlBMb8-fcQ
As for Rishi, he has negative mandate (as much as such a thing matters), as he was rejected by the Members, whereas the others even though they did worse than Rishi are more acceptable as failed candidates as they were not specifically rejected by members.
Jacob Rees Mogg the sexy greased hog
Sir Christopher Chope for stability and hope
Priti please
Wee Dougie Ross gives a toss
Esther Mcvey, wahey!
Andrew Bridgen gives your future a good ridgin
Johnny Mercer your PM and purser and of course
Mark Francois, c*nt
It’s very clear that Elon Musk is transmitting a message for Putin. There was a conference in Aspen in late September when Musk offered a version of what was in his tweet — including the recognition of Crimea as Russian because it’s been mostly Russian since the 1780s — and the suggestion that the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia should be up for negotiation, because there should be guaranteed water supplies to Crimea. He made this suggestion before Putin’s annexation of those two territories on September 30. It was a very specific reference. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia essentially control all the water supplies to Crimea. Crimea is a dry peninsula. It has aquifers, but it doesn’t have rivers. It’s dependent on water from the Dnipro River that flows through a canal from Kherson. It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself. The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin.
Sunak: hated by much of the membership for backstabbing Boris
Hunt: hated by the membership
Mordaunt: untested under real pressure
Maybe as i said before keep Truss as a figurehead hidden away most of the time with Hunt effectively running the country
Most of the time this doesn't happen because most of the time both sides are at least reasonably competent.
If Truss fights an election campaign over the next few weeks such an election campaign would be awful beyond compare.
In fact what was amazing was that a lot of Sunak supporters seemingly couldn’t understand why Penny would be a better final 2 opponent than Truss.
Either way, I think Penny dodged a bullet. From the perspective of her career, the last contest was a good one to lose. As it is I think it’s highly likely she’ll either be Foreign Secretary or PM in a matter of days/weeks.
Mogg’s the dog’s…
Berry nice
It’s May’s day
Rachel Cunliffe
@RMCunliffe
·
4h
Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she
Er, on second thoughts…
Against your point is how forgiving voters are after 14 years. The fact Corbyn Labour got as many votes as they did last time is not a good omen for the Tory’s. Mid 20% for the Tories is quite possible, because what would be an effective pitch whatever leader they fight the next one on - they don’t seem United at the moment, they seem a party at war between at least three of four different understandings what their ethos and policies should be going forward.
Perhaps PB Tories and PB exTories should post less about what wins the next election, more about which ethos should win out and guide the party onwards regardless of next election.
Is it possible this could lead to a small return to grown up politics on this subject. It has tainted and distorted party politics for 30 years, and led to that special sort of weird politicsspeak always used when the subject came up.
1. How can you guarantee this won’t bork the economy? The stuff you did when you became PM did, so your judgement on these things isn’t very good.
2. How can you promise that you’ll implement any of this? Everything you promised last time, you rowed back from.
The very idea that you can put this PM in charge of an election campaign is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. I don’t believe the Tories will poll 30 points behind Labour in a GE when it comes - but if Liz Truss is still their leader, I wouldn’t bet against it.
I enjoy a clerihew and wish I'd kept it.
The only two I remember are:
"Edwina Currie
Left in a hurry.
Edwina on the wane?
Cinservative gain!"
and
"Sir Nicholas Bonsor?
By God, he's gone sir!
Not to worry because
I was never entirely certain which one he was."
She has my backing to be PM.
In a contest with Tory members voting, she was always going to win against Sunak. She was Liz “Trade Deals” Truss, the Great Brexit Queen [ignore that she voted remain]. Our new Maggie.
For the record - it became part of Russia in 1921, and did not become even substantially ethnically Russian until 1946-47.
It is my destiny to be her speechwriter.
The public have made up their minds .
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
Oh, really?
BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
It also led to the greatest news alert notification ever.
A gorgeous autumn afternoon backing losers at Windsor may not be Colorado but it's a world away from the machinations of Westminster.
I wonder the extent to which Conservative MPs now have buyers' remorse. Would a PM Mordaunt be in the same position as the current incumbent? It seems implausible - she came out swinging for her Prime Minister today and that display of "loyalty" won't go unnoticed.
Hunt did what we needed to do over the weekend and this morning (in concert with other factors) to stabilise and steady the markets but economically we seem in a different place from three weeks ago. As I said last evening, the Magic Money tree has been cut up and the stump burned - Prudence is back in the Presidential Suite and it seem the "compassionate Conservative" (a phrase I first heard used by George W Bush) is now in favour.
Whether the electorate will consider it compassionate or self-serving is another matter and the tone of Hunt's ominous warnings suggest prudence will dictate compassion is in short supply. This may not just be the reckoning for Kwarteng's absurdity but for the whole Covid response and post-Covid response.
Truss's behaviour today has been extraordinary - I cannot imagine any other Prime Minister who wouldn't have tried to come out swinging but to use Mordaunt as a human shield suggests a diminution in extremis. After just six weeks, her meteoric descent will likely end more in the manner of Chicxulub but whether the Conservative Party itself can survive the impact is the longer-term question.