Can someone explain how Truss actually stops being PM unless she resigns, isn't she safe for 1 year from VONC?
I think the only way to do it without a VONC in the Commons (ain't gonna happen) is for the 1922 Committee to change the rules.
Have they had time to celebrate their centenary BTW?
The 1922 committee only manages the selection of the leader of the Conservative Party. Under our system only the King can ask the Prime Minister to step down - and he has to act on advice from....his Prime Minister. Boris Johnson's last act was to advise the Queen that she should ask Liz Truss to form a government.
If Truss doesn't want to go, only a vote of no confidence in the HoC can force her out.
Technically true, but there are plenty of precedents where Tory PMs were eased out of Downing Street because they had lost the confidence of the parliamentary party. They may have been old (Churchill) or sick (Chamberlain, Eden, Macmillan) but the underlying reason was lack of support. Of course the system for replacing them was much more efficient in those halcyon days.
Pungent PB pundit alert - Neville Chamberlain was NOT sick (or known to be, by himself or others) in May 1940. And he had NOT lost the confidence of majority of "National" MPs, just a (as it turned out) decisive minority.
And do NOT think the notion of a groundswell of non-confidence by Tory parliamentary party explains the departures of Churchill, Eden or Macmillan. Much more top down than bottom up process. With personal decision to go by each being major factor.
Chamberlain died six months after resigning. Sounds a bit queasy to me.
Chamberlain died in November 1940 but did not become ill until July that year when an exploratory operation revealed stomach/bowel cancer.
No, he was ill at the time he resigned. He just didn't realise with what, or that it would be terminal. That wasn't found out until later.
The pain he was in was one reason that he mishandled the debate.
As with Eden 15 years later, whose severed bile duct was leading him to take something ridiculous like 15 aspirins a day at the height of the Suez crisis.
If Wallace is going for it, he needs to go now and bring Truss down himself, otherwise Hunt might manage to restore some stability and his agenda will get more support. At that point a contest would not be as simple as now, when anyone who went last time would probably lose to a new candidate, like Wallace.
Why on earth would he want it now if he didn't want it then, now that the palatability of the job has fallen off a cliff even relative to then?
If Wallace is going for it, he needs to go now and bring Truss down himself, otherwise Hunt might manage to restore some stability and his agenda will get more support. At that point a contest would not be as simple as now, when anyone who went last time would probably lose to a new candidate, like Wallace.
Why on earth would he want it now if he didn't want it then, now that the palatability of the job has fallen off a cliff even relative to then?
Unclear, I agree. But if he is threatening resignation against the new political order then he doesn't have much option but to either take the top job or be quiet.
A selection from Conhome - mostly fitting a theme, but some more variety being supported than you might think
Upvoted comments
Hunt shouldn’t even be in the party !!!
Remainer & lockdown zealot
[Hunt's] useless. He bottled all the big decisions on the NHS.
Truss just lost the respect and support of those that voted for her.
Hunt is a pro-EU remoaner wet !!!
So the spoiled children who didn't get picked for the team are bringing down another leader
Hunt has been a disaster in every office he has held - Culture, Health, Foreign Office. Talk about rewarding failure. To make him Chancellor is way beyond a sick joke. We should have a GE and have done with it
Well, we tried it. We put Farage, Mogg, Frost, Boris, GB News in charge and it was a catastrophe from start to finish. Time for the grown-ups. A realignment is needed
There's nothing Conservative about this government. It's a collection of incompetent self-serving career politicians promoted due to allegiance and their Brexit stance terrified of being challenged because they know deep down that their worldview won't deliver
Downvoted comments
Good to see some more sensible faces reestablishing control over the party. Next step - change the party voting rules so the membership loons don’t have such power to wreck the country time and again…
From those squealing on here - his appointment seems to upset all the right people.
Shame we can’t bring back the whole 2015 team!
He is a true conservative — it’s really the UKIP types who probably need to leave.
Actually, on balance, I would tolerate them as the Party should be a broad church — just as Blair tolerated Corbyn, we should tolerate the ERG types
All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high, and want the hands on the control of cash and countries around the world being in debt so the higher ups (Rothchilds - whom own the BoE and every major financial institution - Do a search and you will see who owns what) and places such forth
A selection from Conhome - mostly fitting a theme, but some more variety being supported than you might think
All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high, and want the hands on the control of cash and countries around the world being in debt so the higher ups (Rothchilds - whom own the BoE and every major financial institution - Do a search and you will see who owns what) and places such forth
The state of that last comment
Although it was at least one of the downvoted ones. Fortunately even ConHome doesn't yet seem to be a full-on bastion of raving Nazis.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
It should stay for now. Perhaps in a year or two we could consider a peace dividend if things go well in Ukraine. They key thing is intention.
Peace dividends never work. We were told there would be a peace dividend at the end of the Cold War but anyone with any sense knew that, even though the chances of a nuclear exchange might have been reduced, ending the East/West balance was going to make the world a more dangerous, rather than less dangerous place. It really is no surprise that the Balkans Wars started so soon after the end of the fall of the Berlin Wall - the two superpower blocs would never have allowed such a dangerous situation to develop during the Cold War.
Hmmm... There has clearly been a peace dividend since 1990. We failed to spot and prepare for the reverse since the rise of Putin and that is what we need to do (and tbf) are doing now.
I tend to believe the world as a whole is heading slowly towards peace, and cross border war will continue to become rarer. The same is true in Europe.
We have a couple of unfinished disputes in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet empire - Armenia-Azerbaijan, Ukraine, possibly a couple more attempts by Russia at mischief in places like Moldova but otherwise almost all the action in our neighbourhood and the middle East is civil war or unrest.
If Russia is weakened significantly by Ukraine then we are back to focusing on terrorism, asymmetrical and hybrid warfare while the big geopolitical stuff shifts to East Asia where the US is more engaged than European powers.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
Equally remarkably we were generating over 10% of requirements from solar power earlier. In mid October.
And I think gridwatch is underreporting wind today too, for some reason. Other sources have it around 17gw which is well over 50% of generation.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
All that investment in renewables is beginning to pay off, despite the naysayers. Britain has a tremendous advantage in wind (and, if we could be bothered) tidal reserves. We need to keep incentivising the exploitation of it.
I do wonder if in 20 years time there will be so much renewable energy around the world we won't be worrying about energy costs at all.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
All that investment in renewables is beginning to pay off, despite the naysayers. Britain has a tremendous advantage in wind (and, if we could be bothered) tidal reserves. We need to keep incentivising the exploitation of it.
I do wonder if in 20 years time there will be so much renewable energy around the world we won't be worrying about energy costs at all.
There’s really no economic limit to how much renewable energy we could or should generate as far as I can see. The only limit is physical, eg space on the seabed or rooftops.
If we could get into a situation where Europe has surplus electricity then it would trigger more and more of the economy to become electrified or hydrogen driven, and electrical energy to be converted into materials and production.
Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.
What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.
Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.
1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone. 2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market? 3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?
You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹 We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.
But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.
Don’t be one of them.
There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.
The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.
But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.
Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
You telling us It’s unknowable wasn’t the impression I got when you reduced it from £200bn to £20bn to spark my reply. 🙂
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
It's been over 50% a few times in the last few days.
In more good news, Severn Trent's reservoirs were fuller last Sunday than the previous one for the first time since May. However, they are still critically low at just 43%.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
All that investment in renewables is beginning to pay off, despite the naysayers. Britain has a tremendous advantage in wind (and, if we could be bothered) tidal reserves. We need to keep incentivising the exploitation of it.
I do wonder if in 20 years time there will be so much renewable energy around the world we won't be worrying about energy costs at all.
Electricity is relatively easy. Heat is the big challenge. To switch to renewables here requires either converting the gas network to green hydrogen or making everyone install a heat pump. Either way, we'll need vastly more renewable generation capacity and, for the heat pump option, seasonal storage of leccy.
Hunt by just looking sensible and working with rather than against the BOE will likely get some mercy from the markets . This alone will catapult him into prime position for PM but he needs the longer game for this . If Tory MPs pull the plug on Truss next week then he couldn’t jump from COE to PM that quickly.
I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.
It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
Electoral calculus says Con 34 lib 29 lab 29 next time, so hangs on iff zero tactical voting. I am guessing he imposed some conditions before accepting.
LDs have been within a few hundred in the past so I would expect tactical voting big time. I was involved in that campaign. Sadly the LD team then decided to go for internal warfare and suicide. I was involved in the expulsion of some members as a consequence, but I believe that is all way in the past now.
@NickPalmer of course is the local expert now. Although I don't live far away I haven't been involved for sometime.
Tactical voting is well-implanted here with an amicable LD-Lab relatioonship and Hunt will do well if he holds on. I spent the last election in Portsmouth South, where an altogether less scrupulous LibDem effort was being made to suggest that only they could beat the Tories, even though there was a Labour MP (he survived).
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
Clearly Carney thought that this was some weird British tradition, that you got promoted only after establishing your incompetence in your current post. Looking at people like Cressida Dick and indeed Boris would certainly have confirmed that impression.
The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail. The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular. Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?
Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?
Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?
Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.
And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
Top post. Eton and Cambridge must be deeply embarrassed to have turned out such a tone-deaf incompetent.
He was at Cambridge with Richard Burgon, I believe, who was in the next door college?
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
more like 51%, and actually with solar it is 64%
I also notice that the cost of generation £66.10 per MWh, or 6.6p per unit. Why am I being charged 34p?
Hunt by just looking sensible and working with rather than against the BOE will likely get some mercy from the markets . This alone will catapult him into prime position for PM but he needs the longer game for this . If Tory MPs pull the plug on Truss next week then he couldn’t jump from COE to PM that quickly.
Kwarteng would be delighted if he did. He wouldn’t then be the shortest serving Chancellor after Macleod.
A situation where Hunt tries hard to steady the ship and Truss blunders gormlessly from media appearance to media appearance, leaving more havoc in her wake for Jeremy to clean up, isn’t going to work for very long.
I don’t think the situation is sustainable. It’s for this reason that I expect the Party to get shot as soon as they can be confident that they can run a coronation. Another week of plotting might do it.
At the very base of the issue is the fact that they cannot go into a general election with Truss as leader and they know it.
Yet some PB’ers still think Starmer as next PM is a good bet.
Hunt by just looking sensible and working with rather than against the BOE will likely get some mercy from the markets . This alone will catapult him into prime position for PM but he needs the longer game for this . If Tory MPs pull the plug on Truss next week then he couldn’t jump from COE to PM that quickly.
I don't think it rules him out, but it probably forces him as the "Coronation candidate" to run on the basis that he is clear who his Chancellor would be, and that can only be Rishi IMHO.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
It's been over 50% a few times in the last few days.
In more good news, Severn Trent's reservoirs were fuller last Sunday than the previous one for the first time since May. However, they are still critically low at just 43%.
And this before the 2 largest offshore windfarms get plugged in.
Rain, on the other hand, has certainly not been scarce up here this summer.
The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail. The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular. Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?
Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?
Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?
Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.
And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
Top post. Eton and Cambridge must be deeply embarrassed to have turned out such a tone-deaf incompetent.
He was at Cambridge with Richard Burgon, I believe, who was in the next door college?
It’s an odd one, though pharmacy’s are able to prescribe antibiotics in some other countries. I assume the intention is to take pressure off GP waits. But do GPs really spend much time prescribing antibiotics? From what I’ve been told by a friend who’s one the bulk of their job is mental health work and elderly morbidity.
Hunt by just looking sensible and working with rather than against the BOE will likely get some mercy from the markets . This alone will catapult him into prime position for PM but he needs the longer game for this . If Tory MPs pull the plug on Truss next week then he couldn’t jump from COE to PM that quickly.
I don't think it rules him out, but it probably forces him as the "Coronation candidate" to run on the basis that he is clear who his Chancellor would be, and that can only be Rishi IMHO.
Rishi's position as Chancellor was secure before he blew up the government. He's directly culpable for the current mess.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail. The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular. Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?
Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?
Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?
Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.
And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
Top post. Eton and Cambridge must be deeply embarrassed to have turned out such a tone-deaf incompetent.
He was at Cambridge with Richard Burgon, I believe, who was in the next door college?
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
It's been over 50% a few times in the last few days.
In more good news, Severn Trent's reservoirs were fuller last Sunday than the previous one for the first time since May. However, they are still critically low at just 43%.
And this before the 2 largest offshore windfarms get plugged in.
Rain, on the other hand, has certainly not been scarce up here this summer.
And to think some PBers see rain as a disadvantage to living in Scotland. Presumably the north of England is OK too?
The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail. The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular. Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?
Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?
Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?
Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.
And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
Top post. Eton and Cambridge must be deeply embarrassed to have turned out such a tone-deaf incompetent.
He was at Cambridge with Richard Burgon, I believe, who was in the next door college?
Is this the place TSE sings the praises of?
There's no excuse for Burgon, but Kwarteng's fall was in great part due to a nasty Oxford back-stabber.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.
What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.
Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.
1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone. 2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market? 3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?
You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹 We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.
But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.
Don’t be one of them.
There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.
The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.
But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.
Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
You telling us It’s unknowable wasn’t the impression I got when you reduced it from £200bn to £20bn to spark my reply. 🙂
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
I think that you are exaggerating the additional borrowing cost. The reality is that we have to renew between £100-200bn a year of our debt and we will be renewing it on less advantageous terms than we have had since 2008 (in other words it will not be free money). The cost of this scheme is going to be a relatively small part of that.
I also accept that the current scheme is absurdly generous and does little to encourage reduced consumption which is important. I have argued against it since its creation. In fairness, Truss did too until she needed a doily to hide her modesty behind. Sunak's plan was less ambitious but equally poorly directed. All of the available support should have been for the bottom 10% of the population in terms of earnings and businesses, The rest of us had to adjust our behaviour in response to an external price shock.
It’s an odd one, though pharmacy’s are able to prescribe antibiotics in some other countries. I assume the intention is to take pressure off GP waits. But do GPs really spend much time prescribing antibiotics? From what I’ve been told by a friend who’s one the bulk of their job is mental health work and elderly morbidity.
I would say that they do, although I will be honest I have often found the younger the GP the more 'gatekeeper-y' they are about antibiotic prescription. I suspect that GPs are now trained to be very cautious about antibiotic overuse (quite properly, I should add) - so I am not sure how we go from a system that is built to be quite wary about prescribing them and requiring a full clinical assessment before you get there, to a system where pharmacies are now responsible for being the gatekeepers.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
Is there a mirror on the wall? If so, you’re a star.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
It's been over 50% a few times in the last few days.
In more good news, Severn Trent's reservoirs were fuller last Sunday than the previous one for the first time since May. However, they are still critically low at just 43%.
And this before the 2 largest offshore windfarms get plugged in.
Rain, on the other hand, has certainly not been scarce up here this summer.
And to think some PBers see rain as a disadvantage to living in Scotland. Presumably the north of England is OK too?
It's not a lot of fun walking about in it but it has its uses. I think the problems with supply are mainly in the south.
Hunt by just looking sensible and working with rather than against the BOE will likely get some mercy from the markets . This alone will catapult him into prime position for PM but he needs the longer game for this . If Tory MPs pull the plug on Truss next week then he couldn’t jump from COE to PM that quickly.
I don't think it rules him out, but it probably forces him as the "Coronation candidate" to run on the basis that he is clear who his Chancellor would be, and that can only be Rishi IMHO.
Rishi's position as Chancellor was secure before he blew up the government. He's directly culpable for the current mess.
Boris's position was untenable and Rishi wasn't the first to jump. It had also long been mooted Boris wanted to shift him.
I don't see him achieving a coronation, but the idea he caused this is a nonsense - even if he held the power you ascribe to him, he didn't make Truss adopt the economic 'plan' she chose.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
The next Fed meeting is 2nd November and they’re likely to raise rates by at least 0.75% . Ironically stronger growth and good jobs figures which ordinarily governments want are likely to add more impetus to an even higher rate hike .
In terms of gas prices one crumb of comfort for the Dems is the OPEC decision hasn’t had as much impact at the pumps as had been expected and they’re on the way down again .
Early voting also helps , the Dems need to rack up their margins before the next interest rate decision .
What the polling tends to show is there’s a large gap between registered voters and likely voters in the Dem camp , so turnout is important .
They still have a chance to hold the Senate though , the House looks very unlikely at this point .
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss and Hunt lead the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government.
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
The next Fed meeting is 2nd November and they’re likely to raise rates by at least 0.75% . Ironically stronger growth and good jobs figures which ordinarily governments want are likely to add more impetus to an even higher rate hike .
In terms of gas prices one crumb of comfort for the Dems is the OPEC decision hasn’t had as much impact at the pumps as had been expected and they’re on the way down again .
Early voting also helps , the Dems need to rack up their margins before the next interest rate decision .
What the polling tends to show is there’s a large gap between registered voters and likely voters in the Dem camp , so turnout is important .
They still have a chance to hold the Senate though , the House looks very unlikely at this point .
No surprise, both Obama and Trump and Clinton too saw their parties lose the House in their first midterms
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss leads the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
A selection from Conhome - mostly fitting a theme, but some more variety being supported than you might think
Upvoted comments
Hunt shouldn’t even be in the party !!!
Remainer & lockdown zealot
[Hunt's] useless. He bottled all the big decisions on the NHS.
Truss just lost the respect and support of those that voted for her.
Hunt is a pro-EU remoaner wet !!!
So the spoiled children who didn't get picked for the team are bringing down another leader
Hunt has been a disaster in every office he has held - Culture, Health, Foreign Office. Talk about rewarding failure. To make him Chancellor is way beyond a sick joke. We should have a GE and have done with it
Well, we tried it. We put Farage, Mogg, Frost, Boris, GB News in charge and it was a catastrophe from start to finish. Time for the grown-ups. A realignment is needed
There's nothing Conservative about this government. It's a collection of incompetent self-serving career politicians promoted due to allegiance and their Brexit stance terrified of being challenged because they know deep down that their worldview won't deliver
Downvoted comments
Good to see some more sensible faces reestablishing control over the party. Next step - change the party voting rules so the membership loons don’t have such power to wreck the country time and again…
From those squealing on here - his appointment seems to upset all the right people.
Shame we can’t bring back the whole 2015 team!
He is a true conservative — it’s really the UKIP types who probably need to leave.
Actually, on balance, I would tolerate them as the Party should be a broad church — just as Blair tolerated Corbyn, we should tolerate the ERG types
All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high, and want the hands on the control of cash and countries around the world being in debt so the higher ups (Rothchilds - whom own the BoE and every major financial institution - Do a search and you will see who owns what) and places such forth
It’s an odd one, though pharmacy’s are able to prescribe antibiotics in some other countries. I assume the intention is to take pressure off GP waits. But do GPs really spend much time prescribing antibiotics? From what I’ve been told by a friend who’s one the bulk of their job is mental health work and elderly morbidity.
I'd be interested to know if antibiotics use is down since waiting times to see GP have gone up. Correlation is not etc etc but my bet would be a lot of people's minor ear infection or whatever clears up before they get to see a GP and ask for antibiotics.
There once was a PM called Truss Whose policies caused quite a fuss But instead of departing She called Mr Kwarteng And pushed the bloke under a bus…..
Then when she had pulled off this stunt Truss got on the phone to Jez Hunt And told him to enforce The opposite course I bet Kwarteng thinks she's a ... cow
The next Fed meeting is 2nd November and they’re likely to raise rates by at least 0.75% . Ironically stronger growth and good jobs figures which ordinarily governments want are likely to add more impetus to an even higher rate hike .
In terms of gas prices one crumb of comfort for the Dems is the OPEC decision hasn’t had as much impact at the pumps as had been expected and they’re on the way down again .
Early voting also helps , the Dems need to rack up their margins before the next interest rate decision .
What the polling tends to show is there’s a large gap between registered voters and likely voters in the Dem camp , so turnout is important .
They still have a chance to hold the Senate though , the House looks very unlikely at this point .
No surprise, both Obama and Trump and Clinton too saw their parties lose the House in their first midterms
In fact if you go back the last 50 years only two parties holding the presidency have won the house in midterm elections - Bush Junior in 2002 and Carter in 1978.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss and Hunt lead the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government.
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
This is fucking nuts mate.
We deserve to die if that's the sophistication of our thinking.
I want a cutting-edge, patriotic, intelligent, inspiring, long-term planning centre-right party - one that bakes the shit for the West with its foresight.
If howling at the moon is all that's on offer, then I'm off.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss and Hunt lead the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government.
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
I can seen the Tory bigwigs scrapping the membership vote sooner or later. If it means a dwindling membership gifting the Left by selecting increasingly mad and unelectable leaders then what really is the point?
Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.
What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.
Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.
1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone. 2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market? 3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?
You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹 We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.
But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.
Don’t be one of them.
There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.
The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.
But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.
Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
You telling us It’s unknowable wasn’t the impression I got when you reduced it from £200bn to £20bn to spark my reply. 🙂
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
I think that you are exaggerating the additional borrowing cost. The reality is that we have to renew between £100-200bn a year of our debt and we will be renewing it on less advantageous terms than we have had since 2008 (in other words it will not be free money). The cost of this scheme is going to be a relatively small part of that.
I also accept that the current scheme is absurdly generous and does little to encourage reduced consumption which is important. I have argued against it since its creation. In fairness, Truss did too until she needed a doily to hide her modesty behind. Sunak's plan was less ambitious but equally poorly directed. All of the available support should have been for the bottom 10% of the population in terms of earnings and businesses, The rest of us had to adjust our behaviour in response to an external price shock.
I somehow think that even with the 'absurdly generous' price cap, the doubling of home energy costs since last winter does rather a lot to encourage reduced consumption.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
The Tory Party won't allow that because Truss would have to run the next election on obtaining a mandate for... something.
We have seen what happens when Liz Truss tries to implement what she wants and it's not good. They have zero chance of persuading the electorate to listen to Liz. And they can hardly say "well she won't be the leader really, nice Mr. Hunt will sort it all out when she goes off the deep end, don't worry."
So one way or the other the Tories will be going into the next GE with a new leader. The question then comes are they doing it nearer the GE or are they doing it now. For what it's worth, I see no reason to delay matters given the damage Truss can do to their poll ratings every time she opens her mouth.
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss and Hunt lead the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government.
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
I can seen the Tory bigwigs scrapping the membership vote sooner or later. If it means a dwindling membership gifting the Left by selecting increasingly mad and unelectable leaders then what really is the point?
It's difficult to go backwards, and it is true MPs can pick fools, but as has been noted it is a relatively recent development. Party membership was higher when they didn't get this perk, and it would have made more sense when the party membership selecting was a significant number, so why would everyone drop their membership over such an issue?
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
I agree. The Truss being Figurehead Leader in Name Only just isn't going to hold up under the pressures of the next few weeks. The Tories might be able to indulge that fantasy for a little while, but all it takes is another PMQs or media round from Liz and it will all fall apart.
Let's have some stability now until the GE. Keep things as they are. Truss doing regular car-crash interviews and pressers, Hunt being the common sense technocrat calling the shots and applying Labour policies, preventing economic meltdown through a couple of bleak years of mild recession.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
There is zero chance Tory members will elect Hunt as Leader of the Opposition. At present if Truss and Hunt lead the Tories to heavy defeat, the membership will likely conclude she was not rightwing enough and elect Braverman as Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer's government.
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
I can seen the Tory bigwigs scrapping the membership vote sooner or later. If it means a dwindling membership gifting the Left by selecting increasingly mad and unelectable leaders then what really is the point?
Whatever the faults of the membership it was the MPs that chose the final two. They chose them through self-interest alone.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
A selection from Conhome - mostly fitting a theme, but some more variety being supported than you might think
Upvoted comments
Hunt shouldn’t even be in the party !!!
Remainer & lockdown zealot
[Hunt's] useless. He bottled all the big decisions on the NHS.
Truss just lost the respect and support of those that voted for her.
Hunt is a pro-EU remoaner wet !!!
So the spoiled children who didn't get picked for the team are bringing down another leader
Hunt has been a disaster in every office he has held - Culture, Health, Foreign Office. Talk about rewarding failure. To make him Chancellor is way beyond a sick joke. We should have a GE and have done with it
Well, we tried it. We put Farage, Mogg, Frost, Boris, GB News in charge and it was a catastrophe from start to finish. Time for the grown-ups. A realignment is needed
There's nothing Conservative about this government. It's a collection of incompetent self-serving career politicians promoted due to allegiance and their Brexit stance terrified of being challenged because they know deep down that their worldview won't deliver
Downvoted comments
Good to see some more sensible faces reestablishing control over the party. Next step - change the party voting rules so the membership loons don’t have such power to wreck the country time and again…
From those squealing on here - his appointment seems to upset all the right people.
Shame we can’t bring back the whole 2015 team!
He is a true conservative — it’s really the UKIP types who probably need to leave.
Actually, on balance, I would tolerate them as the Party should be a broad church — just as Blair tolerated Corbyn, we should tolerate the ERG types
All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high, and want the hands on the control of cash and countries around the world being in debt so the higher ups (Rothchilds - whom own the BoE and every major financial institution - Do a search and you will see who owns what) and places such forth
Something everyone seems to be conveniently forgetting: Hunt got only 18 votes in the first round of the contest, 5% of total votes.
No one has forgotten it, conveniently or otherwise. The question is whether the already very different situation would change things for him in a future contest.
I don't think it would, but his stock is clearly higher now than it was several months ago, and if - and it is a big if - he can get a grip on things, then his stock will be even higher, with MPs and the members.
BTW we are currently producing a fairly remarkable 46% of our grid requirements from wind power. Not sure I have ever seen it that high. Gas is just under 20% and we are exporting more than 10% of our output. We need lots and lots more of that.
However the chill wind means that folk are cranking up their central heating, using more gas.
I've got the door to the sunroom open and the house is a balmy 20°C right now with no heating at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
You’ve got a room with a sun inside? That’s cheating.
"Fusion power generation created in Welsh doctor's back room"
PB bragging rights. We’d never hear the last of it. 🤭
Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.
After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
Shere Drop when I go to the pub around here. Light and refreshing but a lot of flavour. Adams obviously when in Southwold (not that you will get any choice other than Adams). Broadside usually. I like Bishops Finger and at a decent price at Aldi. I have also found at Aldi Harpers beer which do excellent winter beers. I have in my cupboard from them Plum Porter, Ruby Red and Toffee Ale. All quiet heavy, but great when in front of the stove.
Something everyone seems to be conveniently forgetting: Hunt got only 18 votes in the first round of the contest, 5% of total votes.
What is the relevance? Nobody is trying to have him retrospectively declared winner of that contest. The fact he has virtually no faction behind him actually strengthens his value as a compromise caretaker.
Comments
The pain he was in was one reason that he mishandled the debate.
As with Eden 15 years later, whose severed bile duct was leading him to take something ridiculous like 15 aspirins a day at the height of the Suez crisis.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581279875905638400?t=3pC5pBlU72WTwMXgHag-XA&s=19
Downvoted comments
The state of that last comment
Bailey is and has been awful. I wonder, Mr Carney, that he was so well placed.
We have a couple of unfinished disputes in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet empire - Armenia-Azerbaijan, Ukraine, possibly a couple more attempts by Russia at mischief in
places like Moldova but otherwise almost all the action in our neighbourhood and the middle East is civil war or unrest.
If Russia is weakened significantly by Ukraine then we are back to focusing on terrorism, asymmetrical and hybrid warfare while the big geopolitical stuff shifts to East Asia where the US is more engaged than European powers.
I don't know how culpable Bailey is for the current situation but let us, for the sake of argument, say he's very culpable.
In which case he should go, yes, but not now and not by the end of the month. Get some sound money stability into the current situation first.
If he needs to go do it in the spring.
And I think gridwatch is underreporting wind today too, for some reason. Other sources have it around 17gw which is well over 50% of generation.
I do wonder if in 20 years time there will be so much renewable energy around the world we won't be worrying about energy costs at all.
But I am treating every day from hereon in without cranking up the central heating or at least the stove as a bonus.
If we could get into a situation where Europe has surplus electricity then it would trigger more and more of the economy to become electrified or hydrogen driven, and electrical energy to be converted into materials and production.
We know enough overall price can’t come down that much. Because the bit you seem to be avoiding is commodity price drop is to some extent offset by borrowing cost increase - goes back to the unknowable being very guessable in that the borrowing cost won’t be based on “maybe the commodity price drops and stays at x price”, who lends money on that basis?
You accept the part of the equation, political and economic, it is not necessary to provide help in this way, there other options such as sliding scale to target help where needed, not wasted where not needed, and virtually pays for itself?
In more good news, Severn Trent's reservoirs were fuller last Sunday than the previous one for the first time since May. However, they are still critically low at just 43%.
NHS: “Overuse of antibiotics means they're becoming less effective and has led to emergence of superbugs"
Mayo Clinic: “MRSA [which killed 100k in 2019] is the result of decades of often unnecessary antibiotic use”
British government: let’s make it easier to overuse antibiotics
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1581296766787325952
I also notice that the cost of generation £66.10 per MWh, or 6.6p per unit. Why am I being charged 34p?
Rain, on the other hand, has certainly not been scarce up here this summer.
‘The headwinds are pretty strong’: Democrats’ midterms hopes falter
Republican candidates gaining ground in crucial battleground states amid bleak economic outlook" (via G search)
https://www.ft.com/content/c6608a00-d705-4fb1-a5f6-b6e842b56385
Admittedly, the contact details are slightly surprising.
I also accept that the current scheme is absurdly generous and does little to encourage reduced consumption which is important. I have argued against it since its creation. In fairness, Truss did too until she needed a doily to hide her modesty behind. Sunak's plan was less ambitious but equally poorly directed. All of the available support should have been for the bottom 10% of the population in terms of earnings and businesses, The rest of us had to adjust our behaviour in response to an external price shock.
I don't see him achieving a coronation, but the idea he caused this is a nonsense - even if he held the power you ascribe to him, he didn't make Truss adopt the economic 'plan' she chose.
Then, when the polls have narrowed a bit or time has run out, the Tories can call a GE with a Truss-led campaign leading to electoral wipe-out.
Hunt takes over as LOTO and begins the long Tory Party rebuild process. If there's anything left to rebuild.
Sounds like the least worst outlook to me. Shit, but ultimately survivable.
In terms of gas prices one crumb of comfort for the Dems is the OPEC decision hasn’t had as much impact at the pumps as had been expected and they’re on the way down again .
Early voting also helps , the Dems need to rack up their margins before the next interest rate decision .
What the polling tends to show is there’s a large gap between registered voters and likely voters in the Dem camp , so turnout is important .
They still have a chance to hold the Senate though , the House looks very unlikely at this point .
At best Hunt can be Mandelson to Truss' Brown and steady the ship
Very, very good.
Downvoted comments
I know an UTOAR when I see one.
Hunt isn't and has never been one.
I don't understand the bile for him.
Defence of the realm comes first.
There once was a PM called Truss
Whose policies caused quite a fuss
But instead of departing
She called Mr Kwarteng
And pushed the bloke under a bus…..
Then when she had pulled off this stunt
Truss got on the phone to Jez Hunt
And told him to enforce
The opposite course
I bet Kwarteng thinks she's a ... cow
https://twitter.com/keithfrankish/status/1580951924307656704
We deserve to die if that's the sophistication of our thinking.
I want a cutting-edge, patriotic, intelligent, inspiring, long-term planning centre-right party - one that bakes the shit for the West with its foresight.
If howling at the moon is all that's on offer, then I'm off.
We have seen what happens when Liz Truss tries to implement what she wants and it's not good. They have zero chance of persuading the electorate to listen to Liz. And they can hardly say "well she won't be the leader really, nice Mr. Hunt will sort it all out when she goes off the deep end, don't worry."
So one way or the other the Tories will be going into the next GE with a new leader. The question then comes are they doing it nearer the GE or are they doing it now. For what it's worth, I see no reason to delay matters given the damage Truss can do to their poll ratings every time she opens her mouth.
🐎 update. Held into second by what looked like 2 lengths so only 2 wins from 4.
That’s me limbered up for the season though 😌
Downvoted comments
I know an UTOAR when I see one.
Hunt isn't and has never been one.
I don't understand the bile for him.
UTOAR?
Up Their Own Arsehole Remainer.
I don't think it would, but his stock is clearly higher now than it was several months ago, and if - and it is a big if - he can get a grip on things, then his stock will be even higher, with MPs and the members.
Hunt has never been a dick and tried to reverse Brexit.
I accept that, for some reason, people don't warm to him.
I quite like him.