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Has Campbell got this right – Hunt’s now PM in all but name – politicalbetting.com

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  • Of course, it might be down to Boris to have a quiet conversation with Liz and tell her

    "It's over. Take it from someone who knows about this stuff. There is no coming back. And there's only pain ahead until you accept that."

    Boris can't say that. If nothing else, because nobody really thinks he doesn't still dream of a return from his wilderness years.

    Could TMexPM do it?
  • Icarus said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain how Truss actually stops being PM unless she resigns, isn't she safe for 1 year from VONC?

    I think the only way to do it without a VONC in the Commons (ain't gonna happen) is for the 1922 Committee to change the rules.

    Have they had time to celebrate their centenary BTW?
    The 1922 committee only manages the selection of the leader of the Conservative Party. Under our system only the King can ask the Prime Minister to step down - and he has to act on advice from....his Prime Minister. Boris Johnson's last act was to advise the Queen that she should ask Liz Truss to form a government.

    If Truss doesn't want to go, only a vote of no confidence in the HoC can force her out.

    Technically true, but there are plenty of precedents where Tory PMs were eased out of Downing Street because they had lost the confidence of the parliamentary party. They may have been old (Churchill) or sick (Chamberlain, Eden, Macmillan) but the underlying reason was lack of support. Of course the system for replacing them was much more efficient in those halcyon days.
    Pungent PB pundit alert - Neville Chamberlain was NOT sick (or known to be, by himself or others) in May 1940. And he had NOT lost the confidence of majority of "National" MPs, just a (as it turned out) decisive minority.

    And do NOT think the notion of a groundswell of non-confidence by Tory parliamentary party explains the departures of Churchill, Eden or Macmillan. Much more top down than bottom up process. With personal decision to go by each being major factor.
    Chamberlain died six months after resigning. Sounds a bit queasy to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One test of whether Hunt is PM or not is if he can stop this nonsense...




    Good grief that is appalling. Sounds like she has been dishing out antibiotics to people with viruses, which is of no benefit at all and a fat lot of help re minimising antibiotic resistance. Every time she opens her mouth rubbish seems to come out.
    It will only be appalling if the chemists prove bad at identifying the problems. To take a good example a good friend of mine was put on antibiotics by a nurse at his practice. 2 weeks later he is still feeling ill. He sees a doctor who immediately sends him for a scan at the local hospital (ie within a couple of hours). The hospital confirms that he has a large scaroma. His operation is on the 28th (which is frankly a disappointing wait but the local hospital oncology department was devastated by some nonsense about the levels of chemo given to breast sufferers and has not recovered). Fingers crossed.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Scott_xP said:

    One test of whether Hunt is PM or not is if he can stop this nonsense...




    There was talk on here the other day of Libertarian Health Secretary smoker Therese Coffey repealing the Health Act 2006. How about fags on prescription to promote the mental health of the nation?

    Fighting through nicotine laced clouds would also piss off woke, nanny-state, Remainer scum like me, too.
    In truth, I’m not saying that easier access to cigarettes would help solve the nation’s obesity problem. But I’m not exactly not not saying it either.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited October 2022
    Cookie said:

    Interesting view from a former Labour councillor:

    @ChristabelCoops
    Possibly unpopular opinion, but Brexit did not cause Truss. She's actually the first *post* Brexit PM and that's what undid her. Her ideology was a shift away from the values/Brexit divide and back to a political debate around tax, spending and the size and role of the state.

    Hence her big attempt to create an electorally advantageous "us and them" dividing line was based on the supposed existence of an "anti-growth coalition" which opposed her economic plans, rather than focusing on Brexit divisions, "woke" or other cultural issues.


    https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1581219402707443712

    This is what I've been saying for weeks.
    Sounds like a bit of post rationalising from a Leaver who is now faced with the evidence that they made a terrible decision
  • Truss is the figurehead, the closest thing the Tories have to a mandate (in that she won their farcical leadership election.) Hunt is now first amongst equals in a move which might well see a bit more Cabinet government, rather than diktat from No.10. At some time in the next few months, Truss will succumb to some non-specific ailment and resign. The Tories and the Press will be too gentlemanly to enquire too closely about her condition and she will bow out with as much dignity as she can muster. Hunt leads into the next General Election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    nico679 said:

    Lowering taxes to promote growth when inflation is low seems a lot more logical than doing that with rampant inflation .

    Trussonomics was essentially to throw petrol onto a fire and hope the fire brigade would turn up in time .

    It was the correct diagnosis (we are never going to get the government finances sorted out at the level of growth since 2000, we will simply be choosing which services to cut next) but the wrong solution.

    What we needed was more stability, better confidence to encourage investment, some supply side reform and the BoE to finally start doing its job in relation to inflation. That would have been hard enough for the country to bear with large increases in both energy (which the poorest would need protected from) and mortgages but we would then have been looking to improve things. Instead confidence that the government had any idea what kind of pickle we are in was blown out the water.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,907
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Hunt standing alone in front of the No.10 door as the BBC politics banner image. Accident or deliberate choice I wonder.


    That does not look like a man who is going to let Rishi weasel his way past on the inside rail. Feeling a massive calm about my lay of Sunak next PM.
    Hunt knows neither he nor Sunak can win a membership vote, so being power behind the throne as Chancellor while keeping Truss as his puppet PM suits him fine
    Simple - keep it away from the idiotic members
    No chance of a coronation for them either. Wallace, Braverman, Badenoch etc could easily find the 20 Tory MPs to nominate them from the ERG to be valid leadership candidates
    If they wish so to destroy the party, they can.
    It would be an act of destructive, and self-destructive pique, of course.

    Such behaviour isn't completely unknown in the Conservative party, of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Hunt standing alone in front of the No.10 door as the BBC politics banner image. Accident or deliberate choice I wonder.


    That does not look like a man who is going to let Rishi weasel his way past on the inside rail. Feeling a massive calm about my lay of Sunak next PM.
    Hunt knows neither he nor Sunak can win a membership vote, so being power behind the throne as Chancellor while keeping Truss as his puppet PM suits him fine
    Simple - keep it away from the idiotic members
    No chance of a coronation for them either. Wallace, Braverman, Badenoch etc could easily find the 20 Tory MPs to nominate them from the ERG to be valid leadership candidates
    If they wish so to destroy the party, they can.
    It would be an act of destructive, and self-destructive pique, of course.
    What, like voting against May's Brexit compromise? Didn't stop them then.
  • Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    A very astute post. I really doesn't make sense from any prism that Truss might have been looking through including for her own survival.

    Quite baffling Holmes
    "You see, but you do not observe."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    One test of whether Hunt is PM or not is if he can stop this nonsense...




    Eminently sensible suggestion

    Pharmacists already do this and they are highly qualified

    Not agreeing with Coffey's actions though
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2022

    Truss is the figurehead, the closest thing the Tories have to a mandate (in that she won their farcical leadership election.) Hunt is now first amongst equals in a move which might well see a bit more Cabinet government, rather than diktat from No.10. At some time in the next few months, Truss will succumb to some non-specific ailment and resign. The Tories and the Press will be too gentlemanly to enquire too closely about her condition and she will bow out with as much dignity as she can muster. Hunt leads into the next General Election.

    “The Tories and the Press will be too gentlemanly…”

    What are you smoking?
  • Icarus said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain how Truss actually stops being PM unless she resigns, isn't she safe for 1 year from VONC?

    I think the only way to do it without a VONC in the Commons (ain't gonna happen) is for the 1922 Committee to change the rules.

    Have they had time to celebrate their centenary BTW?
    The 1922 committee only manages the selection of the leader of the Conservative Party. Under our system only the King can ask the Prime Minister to step down - and he has to act on advice from....his Prime Minister. Boris Johnson's last act was to advise the Queen that she should ask Liz Truss to form a government.

    If Truss doesn't want to go, only a vote of no confidence in the HoC can force her out.

    Technically true, but there are plenty of precedents where Tory PMs were eased out of Downing Street because they had lost the confidence of the parliamentary party. They may have been old (Churchill) or sick (Chamberlain, Eden, Macmillan) but the underlying reason was lack of support. Of course the system for replacing them was much more efficient in those halcyon days.
    Pungent PB pundit alert - Neville Chamberlain was NOT sick (or known to be, by himself or others) in May 1940. And he had NOT lost the confidence of majority of "National" MPs, just a (as it turned out) decisive minority.

    And do NOT think the notion of a groundswell of non-confidence by Tory parliamentary party explains the departures of Churchill, Eden or Macmillan. Much more top down than bottom up process. With personal decision to go by each being major factor.
    Chamberlain died six months after resigning. Sounds a bit queasy to me.
    Chamberlain's cancer diagnosis was made AFTER he stopped being PM - and while he was still Leader of the Conservative Party. And certainly NOT unknown for cancer to develop (or at least spread) very quickly. Or at least NOT to be detected until quite late; even more so in 1940 than in 2022.

    He was an old man by the standards of his day. No doubt he felt unwell from time to time, but zero evidence (that I'm aware of) that he, or anyone else, knew he had - or would soon develop - a fatal illness.

    Bottom line, it was NOT sickness that cost Chamberlain his job as Prime Minister.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,518
    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    A very astute post. I really doesn't make sense from any prism that Truss might have been looking through including for her own survival.

    Quite baffling Holmes
    I think the moves will steady the ship politically. Hunt sounded solid and competent and seems likely to come up with something that the markets will be OK with. Some Tories will drift back and the Labour lead will drop from 25 to, say, 14. MPs will feel things are getting better, thus not the moment to launch an insurrection.

    The underlting difficulties remain - Truss has put nearly everyone off and probably can't recover, Hunt will be delivering plenty of bad news, mortgages will still go up. But I'd think Truss will stay on now until the local elections, after which MPs will reassess the position.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
    Electoral calculus says Con 34 lib 29 lab 29 next time, so hangs on iff zero tactical voting. I am guessing he imposed some conditions before accepting.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Icarus said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain how Truss actually stops being PM unless she resigns, isn't she safe for 1 year from VONC?

    I think the only way to do it without a VONC in the Commons (ain't gonna happen) is for the 1922 Committee to change the rules.

    Have they had time to celebrate their centenary BTW?
    The 1922 committee only manages the selection of the leader of the Conservative Party. Under our system only the King can ask the Prime Minister to step down - and he has to act on advice from....his Prime Minister. Boris Johnson's last act was to advise the Queen that she should ask Liz Truss to form a government.

    If Truss doesn't want to go, only a vote of no confidence in the HoC can force her out.

    Technically true, but there are plenty of precedents where Tory PMs were eased out of Downing Street because they had lost the confidence of the parliamentary party. They may have been old (Churchill) or sick (Chamberlain, Eden, Macmillan) but the underlying reason was lack of support. Of course the system for replacing them was much more efficient in those halcyon days.
    Pungent PB pundit alert - Neville Chamberlain was NOT sick (or known to be, by himself or others) in May 1940. And he had NOT lost the confidence of majority of "National" MPs, just a (as it turned out) decisive minority.

    And do NOT think the notion of a groundswell of non-confidence by Tory parliamentary party explains the departures of Churchill, Eden or Macmillan. Much more top down than bottom up process. With personal decision to go by each being major factor.
    Chamberlain died six months after resigning. Sounds a bit queasy to me.
    Chamberlain's cancer diagnosis was made AFTER he stopped being PM - and while he was still Leader of the Conservative Party. And certainly NOT unknown for cancer to develop (or at least spread) very quickly. Or at least NOT to be detected until quite late; even more so in 1940 than in 2022.

    He was an old man by the standards of his day. No doubt he felt unwell from time to time, but zero evidence (that I'm aware of) that he, or anyone else, knew he had - or would soon develop - a fatal illness.

    Bottom line, it was NOT sickness that cost
    Chamberlain his job as Prime Minister.
    Shocking if true. We’re there any European events going on at the time? That’s what historically’s done for Tory PMs.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Hunt standing alone in front of the No.10 door as the BBC politics banner image. Accident or deliberate choice I wonder.


    That does not look like a man who is going to let Rishi weasel his way past on the inside rail. Feeling a massive calm about my lay of Sunak next PM.
    Hunt knows neither he nor Sunak can win a membership vote, so being power behind the throne as Chancellor while keeping Truss as his puppet PM suits him fine
    Simple - keep it away from the idiotic members
    No chance of a coronation for them either. Wallace, Braverman, Badenoch etc could easily find the 20 Tory MPs to nominate them from the ERG to be valid leadership candidates
    John Major's "Bastards" have taken over and can hold the party to ransom for as long as the current rules exist, they have the votes to put an approved candidate into the final 2.

    The Tories are now in the pathetic situation where they know the leader is a dud but simply daren't risk a leadership election because they have realised that membership are barking mad.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Good piece from the Atlantic from Tom McTague about the current mess: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/liz-truss-fires-kwasi-kwarteng-tax-cuts-britain/671738/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20221014&utm_term=The Atlantic Daily

    I don't often agree with his views, he's a bit lefty for me, but it is hard to disagree with much of this.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854

    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    A very astute post. I really doesn't make sense from any prism that Truss might have been looking through including for her own survival.

    Quite baffling Holmes
    I think the moves will steady the ship politically. Hunt sounded solid and competent and seems likely to come up with something that the markets will be OK with. Some Tories will drift back and the Labour lead will drop from 25 to, say, 14. MPs will feel things are getting better, thus not the moment to launch an insurrection.

    The underlting difficulties remain - Truss has put nearly everyone off and probably can't recover, Hunt will be delivering plenty of bad news, mortgages will still go up. But I'd think Truss will stay on now until the local elections, after which MPs will reassess the position.
    It's possibly a good move for the party but not something that Truss is likely to have thought of or welcomed.

    For her survival he must be the worst choice possible. He's known not to support her or her policies and he visibly out ranks her. Only if she wants to be one of the shortest lived PMs on record does this make sense
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    I usually start with the lightest and work towards the darkest, unless there’s a mild on, in which case I go mild, golden, hoppy, bitter, dark.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Hunt standing alone in front of the No.10 door as the BBC politics banner image. Accident or deliberate choice I wonder.


    That does not look like a man who is going to let Rishi weasel his way past on the inside rail. Feeling a massive calm about my lay of Sunak next PM.
    Hunt knows neither he nor Sunak can win a membership vote, so being power behind the throne as Chancellor while keeping Truss as his puppet PM suits him fine
    Simple - keep it away from the idiotic members
    No chance of a coronation for them either. Wallace, Braverman, Badenoch etc could easily find the 20 Tory MPs to nominate them from the ERG to be valid leadership candidates
    John Major's "Bastards" have taken over and can hold the party to ransom for as long as the current rules exist, they have the votes to put an approved candidate into the final 2.

    The Tories are now in the pathetic situation where they know the leader is a dud but simply daren't risk a leadership election because they have realised that membership are barking mad.
    It’s easily fixed - this is a coronation otherwise SKS will call a VoNC and enough Tory MPs will abstain for an election to be triggered
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    I usually start with the lightest and work towards the darkest, unless there’s a mild on, in which case I go mild, golden, hoppy, bitter, dark.
    That’s essentially what’s happening here. Trout Pout is a pale ale. Then Doom Bar. Then Old Dairy Red Top.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,450
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    Doom Bar used to be great. Seemed to go downhill around four years ago iirc.

    Butcombe ale is usually better like Doom used to be and has the advantage of a childishly silly name to order and giggle about.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,920
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836

    *🐎 one race into the new jump season and I am unbeaten 😊

    If you can outrun a load of horses, kudos indeed ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    DougSeal said:

    Mrs Seal is in the United States visiting her family for two weeks. Mr Seal is in the village pub getting quietly pissed for the afternoon. More updates to follow.

    While the cats away, the mice can play.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    You’ve got me on the spot there. St Austell brewery seems to travel well. Proper Job especially if you like your IPAs. Doubtless there are experts on here who will shoot me down on that.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,450
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I will usually buy Greene King IPA or London Pride for general beer drinking but always cans as I find they taste better than from bottles - always find the bottled versions too fizzy and not like from a tap.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    Doom Bar used to be great. Seemed to go downhill around four years ago iirc.
    Probably 2013 when MolsonCoors moved production to Burton-on-Trent. (Right outside my old office window.)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    Landlord.
  • Icarus said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain how Truss actually stops being PM unless she resigns, isn't she safe for 1 year from VONC?

    I think the only way to do it without a VONC in the Commons (ain't gonna happen) is for the 1922 Committee to change the rules.

    Have they had time to celebrate their centenary BTW?
    The 1922 committee only manages the selection of the leader of the Conservative Party. Under our system only the King can ask the Prime Minister to step down - and he has to act on advice from....his Prime Minister. Boris Johnson's last act was to advise the Queen that she should ask Liz Truss to form a government.

    If Truss doesn't want to go, only a vote of no confidence in the HoC can force her out.

    Technically true, but there are plenty of precedents where Tory PMs were eased out of Downing Street because they had lost the confidence of the parliamentary party. They may have been old (Churchill) or sick (Chamberlain, Eden, Macmillan) but the underlying reason was lack of support. Of course the system for replacing them was much more efficient in those halcyon days.
    Pungent PB pundit alert - Neville Chamberlain was NOT sick (or known to be, by himself or others) in May 1940. And he had NOT lost the confidence of majority of "National" MPs, just a (as it turned out) decisive minority.

    And do NOT think the notion of a groundswell of non-confidence by Tory parliamentary party explains the departures of Churchill, Eden or Macmillan. Much more top down than bottom up process. With personal decision to go by each being major factor.
    Chamberlain died six months after resigning. Sounds a bit queasy to me.
    Chamberlain died in November 1940 but did not become ill until July that year when an exploratory operation revealed stomach/bowel cancer.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    Landlord.
    Agree but is it that commonly found? I haven’t seen it on tap since I moved from Angel. It was always on at the Island Queen in Noel Road.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    The problem the Tories have is that government now stands against what they were advocating just a few days ago. It’s only the shock holding things together.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541
    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    You’ve got me on the spot there. St Austell brewery seems to travel well. Proper Job especially if you like your IPAs. Doubtless there are experts on here who will shoot me down on that.

    Proper Job is good, but Tribute from the same place is awful.

    In the same vein, Green King Abbot is decent, IPA is dreadful.

    Landlord is great, but is often served badly.

    Lighter colour beers seems to travel better and survive bad cellermanship. I’ve had plenty of good pints of Deuchars in bad pubs.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,450

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    Doom Bar used to be great. Seemed to go downhill around four years ago iirc.
    Probably 2013 when MolsonCoors moved production to Burton-on-Trent. (Right outside my old office window.)
    That would make sense - also the timing makes sense when I think about it. Shame as it used to be a decent pint.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    I agree with you on the disappointing nature of Doom Bar, but I quite like Pizza Express.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,469
    Jonathan said:

    The problem the Tories have is that government now stands against what they were advocating just a few days ago. It’s only the shock holding things together.

    Funny if this self-inflicted Tory crisis ends with their beloved FPTP voting system being replaced by PR.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    You’ve got me on the spot there. St Austell brewery seems to travel well. Proper Job especially if you like your IPAs. Doubtless there are experts on here who will shoot me down on that.

    Proper Job is good, but Tribute from the same place is awful.

    In the same vein, Green King Abbot is decent, IPA is dreadful.

    Landlord is great, but is often served badly.

    Lighter colour beers seems to travel better and survive bad cellermanship. I’ve had plenty of good pints of Deuchars in bad pubs.
    Don’t disagree. Haven’t had Tribute for years.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    Approval Ratings After 40 Days of Becoming Leader of their Respective Parties:

    Keir Starmer: +15.6%
    Boris Johnson: +3.9%
    Liz Truss: -50.1%

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581279875905638400/photo/1
  • Liz Truss faces another eight PMQs this year, if I've read the recess dates right, and assuming she cannot find any overseas summits to hide at. Can Keir Starmer bring her down?
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
    Electoral calculus says Con 34 lib 29 lab 29 next time, so hangs on iff zero tactical voting. I am guessing he imposed some conditions before accepting.
    LDs have been within a few hundred in the past so I would expect tactical voting big time. I was involved in that campaign. Sadly the LD team then decided to go for internal warfare and suicide. I was involved in the expulsion of some members as a consequence, but I believe that is all way in the past now.

    @NickPalmer of course is the local expert now. Although I don't live far away I haven't been involved for sometime.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,743
    Mr. JohnL, Starmer's job is to keep her in place so he has an electoral piñata to thrash at the polls.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    NEW Governor Bailey signals larger interest rate rises…and consideration of Govt fiscal policy at G30 meeting in DC

    “as things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August.”

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1581281762764025857

    GOvernor Bailey: “UK financial markets have experienced some violent moves in the last few weeks particularly at the long-end of the Government debt market. This has put the spotlight on flaws in the strategy and structure of one important part of a lot of pension funds”.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    Landlord.
    Agree but is it that commonly found? I haven’t seen it on tap since I moved from Angel. It was always on at the Island Queen in Noel Road.

    Good pub, the Island Queen.
    Pubs in Manhattan are absolute shit.
  • I find it difficult to see a return to Osborne -style austerity - as favoured by Hunt and Sunak - being popular in electoral terms. The markets are likely to calm down but the impact on household budgets and public services is unlikely to be helpful to the Tories after 12 years in office - particularly when combined with the effects of tighter monetary policies via higher interest rates feeding through to very substantial jumps in mortgage repayments.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Most IPAs are garbage. No “mouth feel”.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    Landlord.
    Agree but is it that commonly found? I haven’t seen it on tap since I moved from Angel. It was always on at the Island Queen in Noel Road.

    Good pub, the Island Queen.
    Pubs in Manhattan are absolute shit.
    I used to live round the corner. My fave ever local. Haven’t been back for years.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    DavidL said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mrs Seal is in the United States visiting her family for two weeks. Mr Seal is in the village pub getting quietly pissed for the afternoon. More updates to follow.

    While the cats away, the mice can play.

    "but mice are happily unencumbered by apprehensions of the future. Humans, on the other hand, are"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,324
    DougSeal said:

    Mrs Seal is in the United States visiting her family for two weeks. Mr Seal is in the village pub getting quietly pissed for the afternoon. More updates to follow.

    At least your using the time she’s away wisely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Liz Truss faces another eight PMQs this year, if I've read the recess dates right, and assuming she cannot find any overseas summits to hide at. Can Keir Starmer bring her down?
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

    The easy response would be why would he want to, but of course when things are this bad he should want to seek to replace her as soon as he possibly can.

    I don't think her going is in his hands no matter what Keir does, she has caulked up holes below the waterline but it was a slipshod job, so chances will come.

    In the meantime, he can continue his general approach, and at PMQs be pretty blunt about asking if the PM and her Chancellor agree on X, or what does the PM think about Y, whilst obviously looking at Hunt.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    edited October 2022

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
    Shere Drop when I go to the pub around here. Light and refreshing but a lot of flavour. Adams obviously when in Southwold (not that you will get any choice other than Adams). Broadside usually. I like Bishops Finger and at a decent price at Aldi. I have also found at Aldi Harpers beer which do excellent winter beers. I have in my cupboard from them Plum Porter, Ruby Red and Toffee Ale. All quiet heavy, but great when in front of the stove.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Scott_xP said:

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949

    It cannot be afforded. I'd like to boost defence spending too, but in terms of retaining investment to boost growth there are surely better options.
  • On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.
  • kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
    Electoral calculus says Con 34 lib 29 lab 29 next time, so hangs on iff zero tactical voting. I am guessing he imposed some conditions before accepting.
    LDs have been within a few hundred in the past so I would expect tactical voting big time. I was involved in that campaign. Sadly the LD team then decided to go for internal warfare and suicide. I was involved in the expulsion of some members as a consequence, but I believe that is all way in the past now.

    @NickPalmer of course is the local expert now. Although I don't live far away I haven't been involved for sometime.
    That will not be true in all seats though. On the basis of current polling a seat such as Wimbledon is more likely to fall to Labour than to the LDs - despite the latter having been close in 2019. It was Labour-held 1997 - 2005 , and Labour's 2019 vote there is likely to have been depressed by the Brexit and Corbyn factors - both of which have lost their relevance.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Jeremy Hunt is the UK’s Mario Monti.
    A technocrat installed to clean up the almighty mess left by various Brexiters and libertarian nut jobs.

    I must say, simply watching that one Sky clip made me feel more relaxed about UK governance than I have since about 2018.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,469

    On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.

    It'll be interesting to see what Truss supporters do (MPs I mean). Maybe they'd prefer an election.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,441
    DavidL said:

    Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.

    What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
    The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.

    Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
    Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
    I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.

    1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone.
    2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market?
    3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?

    You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹
    We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.

    But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.

    Don’t be one of them.

    There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949

    It cannot be afforded. I'd like to boost defence spending too, but in terms of retaining investment to boost growth there are surely better options.
    Liz only promised it for 2030, which let’s face it might as well be never as far as this government’s prospects go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Jeremy Hunt is the UK’s Mario Monti.
    A technocrat installed to clean up the almighty mess left by various Brexiters and libertarian nut jobs.

    I must say, simply watching that one Sky clip made me feel more relaxed about UK governance than I have since about 2018.

    We joke about it because we are cynical about politics, but being able to project assurance and capability is important. It doesn't eclipse needing to actually have those two things, and you can get by for awhile without them, but we want to feel like our leaders know what the heck they are doing, even if they don't. Especially if they don't.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.

    It'll be interesting to see what Truss supporters do (MPs I mean). Maybe they'd prefer an election.
    There’s only about two of them; one is suspended for sex offences and the other a permanent inmate at Broadmoor.

    Nobody cares anymore what Truss or her “supporters” think.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,441
    IanB2 said:

    *🐎 one race into the new jump season and I am unbeaten 😊

    If you can outrun a load of horses, kudos indeed ;)
    I was tempted to jump on the riderless horse and keep it out the way whilst my gin was trying to jump!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One test of whether Hunt is PM or not is if he can stop this nonsense...




    Good grief that is appalling. Sounds like she has been dishing out antibiotics to people with viruses, which is of no benefit at all and a fat lot of help re minimising antibiotic resistance. Every time she opens her mouth rubbish seems to come out.
    The plan is actually a good one, provided that pharmacies have the appropriate guidance, incentives and monitoring not to go doling them out to everyone who comes in with a cold. Coffey has managed to f**k up the announcement with a ludicrous anecdote from her past. Indeed since she's not qualified or licensed to issue prescription medication to other people, one wonders whether some sort of offence has been committed?
    My wife's rant was because of what Coffey said about dishing them out herself, but it was also my wife's view that a Chemist would not have the medical knowledge to issue antibiotics. She doesn't have an axe to grind as she isn't and never was a GP. She trained as a pathologist and specialised in drug safety. I'm going with her.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    kle4 said:

    Jeremy Hunt is the UK’s Mario Monti.
    A technocrat installed to clean up the almighty mess left by various Brexiters and libertarian nut jobs.

    I must say, simply watching that one Sky clip made me feel more relaxed about UK governance than I have since about 2018.

    We joke about it because we are cynical about politics, but being able to project assurance and capability is important. It doesn't eclipse needing to actually have those two things, and you can get by for awhile without them, but we want to feel like our leaders know what the heck they are doing, even if they don't. Especially if they don't.
    Not only that, he spoke a simple truth.
    There will need to be spending cuts and tax rises.

    The Tories have largely spent the period since 2016, and certainly since 2019, pissing on our legs and telling us that it’s raining.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949

    It should stay for now. Perhaps in a year or two we could consider a peace dividend if things go well in Ukraine. They key thing is intention.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,469

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.

    It'll be interesting to see what Truss supporters do (MPs I mean). Maybe they'd prefer an election.
    There’s only about two of them; one is suspended for sex offences and the other a permanent inmate at Broadmoor.

    Nobody cares anymore what Truss or her “supporters” think.
    Didn't she get at least 40 votes in the first round?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    edited October 2022
    Sad to see that Robbie Coltrane died yesterday. He would have been a shoo-in to play Therese Coffey in TRUSSED: A VERY BRITISH COCK-UP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    DougSeal said:

    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    You’ve got me on the spot there. St Austell brewery seems to travel well. Proper Job especially if you like your IPAs. Doubtless there are experts on here who will shoot me down on that.

    Proper Job is good, but Tribute from the same place is awful.

    In the same vein, Green King Abbot is decent, IPA is dreadful.

    Landlord is great, but is often served badly.

    Lighter colour beers seems to travel better and survive bad cellermanship. I’ve had plenty of good pints of Deuchars in bad pubs.
    Don’t disagree. Haven’t had Tribute for years.

    Black Sheep gets my vote.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Is *unt still planning to have Esther McVey as his Number Two?

  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    mwadams said:

    DJ41 said:

    The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail.
    The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular.
    Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?

    Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
    My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?

    Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?

    Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.

    And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.

    It'll be interesting to see what Truss supporters do (MPs I mean). Maybe they'd prefer an election.
    There’s only about two of them; one is suspended for sex offences and the other a permanent inmate at Broadmoor.

    Nobody cares anymore what Truss or her “supporters” think.
    Didn't she get at least 40 votes in the first round?
    Yes; and at least 30 of them have thought better of it.

    The rest have either gone mad, fled to South Africa after murdering a domestic, or undergone a botched sex change operation which has left them permanently mute and neutered.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    edited October 2022

    kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kjh said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    I've got to say, while Hunt is obviously a far better person to be de facto PM than Truss, this feels kind of like a coup. Nobody elected him, not even the batshit crazies of the Tory membership. Let's have an election so the British people can decide who leads us.

    It's a coup by elected MPs against unelected party members, which seems fine democratically.
    Elected MPs did not appoint Hunt. If anything, it is a coup by Liz Truss against the unelected members who chose Liz Truss, so the coup metaphor does not really hold.
    I do not believe that sacking KK or appointing Hunt were decisions made by LT. Do you?
    Hunt's appointment does seem strange (although welcome). I was at first surprised he took it, but then I guess he thought 'why not give it one last fling before I get ejected in SWS'.
    Electoral calculus says Con 34 lib 29 lab 29 next time, so hangs on iff zero tactical voting. I am guessing he imposed some conditions before accepting.
    LDs have been within a few hundred in the past so I would expect tactical voting big time. I was involved in that campaign. Sadly the LD team then decided to go for internal warfare and suicide. I was involved in the expulsion of some members as a consequence, but I believe that is all way in the past now.

    @NickPalmer of course is the local expert now. Although I don't live far away I haven't been involved for sometime.
    That will not be true in all seats though. On the basis of current polling a seat such as Wimbledon is more likely to fall to Labour than to the LDs - despite the latter having been close in 2019. It was Labour-held 1997 - 2005 , and Labour's 2019 vote there is likely to have been depressed by the Brexit and Corbyn factors - both of which have lost their relevance.
    Agree (Although I hope you are wrong and the LDs have managed to maintain that grip in Wimbledon). SWS is a more traditional LD/Con battleground interrupted by the National LD implosion and the local LD civil war.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    edited October 2022

    DavidL said:

    Hunt has calmed the markets, if he quits then it will be carnage, so Truss cannot afford to lose him, he will do whatever he wants.

    What happens if Monday comes and the markets aren’t calmed?
    The way this usually happens is there can be two weeks of calm - people say the markets have been calmed, but then it all erupts again.

    Obviously you all know my theory - £400bn of Rishi splaffing (and wasting a lot) to get us through covid has maxxed out the credit - now they want to (unnecessarily, needlessly) try to get another £200bn more borrowing - the markets won’t calm till that plan is dead.
    Or the £200bn becomes more like £20bn. Everything now turns on the future price of gas.
    I don’t want to be really rude David, but you keep posting that “If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops” means don’t think you really understand it. That thinking is utter bollox.

    1. We haven’t had an OBR how much Tories total promise is likely to cost. The Tories have promised to buck the UK energy market for two and a half years regardless what global energy price does. Some think tanks have had a go at pricing this and come to a quarter of a trillion pound. To be found by tax rises, borrowing or cuts or mixture thereof. Quarter of a trillion on that one policy alone.
    2. Variable one. Energy prices can go down, yes, but also up, it’s a very fluid situation in supply and demand over this coming period - but at which point do energy companies need to commit to buying it in advance, so commit to passing on THAT price to both customers AND onto a government commitment to bucking the market?
    3. Variable two. If global prices do come down, to what degree is the saving on the quarter of a trillion eaten into or obliterated by the more expensive borrowing costs? Out of these two variable’s, borrowing costs for this policy look certain to remain high now, the greater doubt is if energy prices will come down and stay down isn’t it?

    You really think that whole £200bn comes down to £20bn? 🥹
    We all know what’s really behind “but the bill freeze looks like turning out much cheaper because gas prices are coming down” argument we get spun from Tory’s on TV and on PB - they privately hate this lumbering Labour policy Tory party has adopted, they hate the ENORMOUS amount of borrowing maxing out UKs credit limit, and the regressive unConservative way the money is spewed out in indiscriminate handouts.

    But. They are only fooling themselves spinning that comfort blanket, because, yes, there are variables, but the variables are very much against them.

    Don’t be one of them.

    There is no defence to this insane policy, Truss has been hiding behind all week.
    I would agree we don't know what this policy is going to cost and I would agree that there are significant risks on the upside but there is also some reason for hope on the low side.

    The government have committed to the average house bill being no more than £2500 a year. At the moment the price of gas futures are 263p/therm. It has been over 700p and has averaged around 400p of late. The cost of the UK subsidy is directly relational to that price against the price that fixes the £2500 pa average. I have been unable to work out exactly what that is because there are quite a number of other variables. Energy companies are bumping up their fixed charges as well. My best guess is that £2500 per household is going be equivalent to something like 200p/therm, roughly twice what it was last winter.

    But I am not wrong is saying that there is a chance that the cost of the scheme will prove to be much lower than the worst estimates. It could also be higher of course. If it stays somewhere near our current price or goes even lower then the cost of the scheme will be less. If it goes back up again we are in trouble, no doubt about it.

    Edit, and btw the OBR will have no better idea than the rest of us, it is simply unknowable.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,755
    kjh said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
    Shere Drop when I go to the pub around here. Light and refreshing but a lot of flavour. Adams obviously when in Southwold (not that you will get any choice other than Adams). Broadside usually. I like Bishops Finger and at a decent price at Aldi. I have also found at Aldi Harpers beer which do excellent winter beers. I have in my cupboard from them Plum Porter, Ruby Red and Toffee Ale. All quiet heavy, but great when in front of the stove.
    I've had that plum porter a few times - surprised at how good it was for the price.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    edited October 2022
    A situation where Hunt tries hard to steady the ship and Truss blunders gormlessly from media appearance to media appearance, leaving more havoc in her wake for Jeremy to clean up, isn’t going to work for very long.

    I don’t think the situation is sustainable. It’s for this reason that I expect the Party to get shot as soon as they can be confident that they can run a coronation. Another week of plotting might do it.

    At the very base of the issue is the fact that they cannot go into a general election with Truss as leader and they know it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    A selection from Conhome - mostly fitting a theme, but some more variety being supported than you might think

    Upvoted comments
    Hunt shouldn’t even be in the party !!!

    Remainer & lockdown zealot


    [Hunt's] useless. He bottled all the big decisions on the NHS.


    Truss just lost the respect and support of those that voted for her.

    Hunt is a pro-EU remoaner wet !!!


    So the spoiled children who didn't get picked for the team are bringing down another leader


    Hunt has been a disaster in every office he has held - Culture, Health, Foreign Office. Talk about rewarding failure. To make him Chancellor is way beyond a sick joke. We should have a GE and have done with it


    Well, we tried it. We put Farage, Mogg, Frost, Boris, GB News in charge and it was a catastrophe from start to finish. Time for the grown-ups. A realignment is needed


    There's nothing Conservative about this government. It's a collection of incompetent self-serving career politicians promoted due to allegiance and their Brexit stance terrified of being challenged because they know deep down that their worldview won't deliver

    Downvoted comments

    Good to see some more sensible faces reestablishing control over the party. Next step - change the party voting rules so the membership loons don’t have such power to wreck the country time and again…

    From those squealing on here - his appointment seems to upset all the right people.

    Shame we can’t bring back the whole 2015 team!

    He is a true conservative — it’s really the UKIP types who probably need to leave.

    Actually, on balance, I would tolerate them as the Party should be a broad church — just as Blair tolerated Corbyn, we should tolerate the ERG types

    All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high, and want the hands on the control of cash and countries around the world being in debt so the higher ups (Rothchilds - whom own the BoE and every major financial institution - Do a search and you will see who owns what) and places such forth
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    Jeremy Hunt is the UK’s Mario Monti.
    A technocrat installed to clean up the almighty mess left by various Brexiters and libertarian nut jobs.

    I must say, simply watching that one Sky clip made me feel more relaxed about UK governance than I have since about 2018.

    We joke about it because we are cynical about politics, but being able to project assurance and capability is important. It doesn't eclipse needing to actually have those two things, and you can get by for awhile without them, but we want to feel like our leaders know what the heck they are doing, even if they don't. Especially if they don't.
    Not only that, he spoke a simple truth.
    There will need to be spending cuts and tax rises.

    The Tories have largely spent the period since 2016, and certainly since 2019, pissing on our legs and telling us that it’s raining.
    Just on the leg for you? You've had an easy time.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    kjh said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
    Shere Drop when I go to the pub around here. Light and refreshing but a lot of flavour. Adams obviously when in Southwold (not that you will get any choice other than Adams). Broadside usually. I like Bishops Finger and at a decent price at Aldi. I have also found at Aldi Harpers beer which do excellent winter beers. I have in my cupboard from them Plum Porter, Ruby Red and Toffee Ale. All quiet heavy, but great when in front of the stove.
    Some great local ales here in the West Riding. Everyone is familiar with Timothy Taylor, bur plenty of other breweries in the area producing a good selection.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    BoE governor Andrew Bailey says he spoke to new CX Jeremy Hunt yesterday.

    He said there was a "clear meeting of minds" on "fiscal stability and sustainability."
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,771
    kjh said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Right. I’m going to try all the ales on pump. Left to right I’m starting with the Canterbury Ales “Trout Pout”. Wish me luck.

    After that it’s Doom Bar which is the Pizza Express of real ale. Disappointing.
    What would you say is the best of the mass-production, commonly found real ales?
    I like London Pride on tap. At home I like Brew Dog's Hazy Jane. Bishop's Finger is a great strong bottled ale. Our local Brockley Brewery does some very nice ales, I like their Golden Ale especially.
    Shere Drop when I go to the pub around here. Light and refreshing but a lot of flavour. Adams obviously when in Southwold (not that you will get any choice other than Adams). Broadside usually. I like Bishops Finger and at a decent price at Aldi. I have also found at Aldi Harpers beer which do excellent winter beers. I have in my cupboard from them Plum Porter, Ruby Red and Toffee Ale. All quiet heavy, but great when in front of the stove.
    Agggghhhh - Adnams obviously
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    Is *unt still planning to have Esther McVey as his Number Two?

    I hope you are joking.

    If he is planning that, then he's absolutely not the grownup safe pair of hands that many perceive him as.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,469

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Hunt is a combination PM, Chancellor and Chief Secretary all in one. No you can't have that policy, here are the tax plans, this is the budget cut I need your department to save.

    Well, he is today. Over the weekend Tory MPs are going to be told very firmly back home what needs to be done. Mrs Brady will be very busy on Monday - Hunt as Chancellor doesn't abruptly fix the wooden spoon in No10 and her "I have no program" FUBAR.

    It'll be interesting to see what Truss supporters do (MPs I mean). Maybe they'd prefer an election.
    There’s only about two of them; one is suspended for sex offences and the other a permanent inmate at Broadmoor.

    Nobody cares anymore what Truss or her “supporters” think.
    Didn't she get at least 40 votes in the first round?
    Yes; and at least 30 of them have thought better of it.

    The rest have either gone mad, fled to South Africa after murdering a domestic, or undergone a botched sex change operation which has left them permanently mute and neutered.
    You seem to be be forgetting she got 113 votes in the final round. The 40 will have been her hard-core supporters who probably haven't changed their minds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    If Wallace is going for it, he needs to go now and bring Truss down himself, otherwise Hunt might manage to restore some stability and his agenda will get more support. At that point a contest would not be as simple as now, when anyone who went last time would probably lose to a new candidate, like Wallace.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    Andy_JS said:

    You seem to be be forgetting she got 113 votes in the final round. The 40 will have been her hard-core supporters who probably haven't changed their minds.

    The first 40 were continuity BoZo supporters.

    They didn't want Truss, but she was the only blonde nutter left on the ballot...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    TimS said:

    I love this one: “All this push back against Tax cuts has come from the Global Elite from around the world whom want to keep Taxes high”.

    Something the global elite has always been keen on of course. high taxes.

    Ah, but you see, they love high taxes because it punishes the middle class and poor, whom they hate of course, but they themselves never have to pay high taxes as they have workarounds.

    Actually, the bit after the but is true, though the first part isn't.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,920
    Interesting answers to the commonly found real ale question. I’d generally opt for a London Pride or an Adnams, or Harvey’s best (if that counts as mass produced) if the choice is limited. But if the pub looks like it wouldn’t keep its beer well then it’s kegged beer or cider time.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    DJ41 said:

    Is *unt still planning to have Esther McVey as his Number Two?

    I hope you are joking.

    If he is planning that, then he's absolutely not the grownup safe pair of hands that many perceive him as.
    That was his pitch in the summer. A Hunt - McVey joint ticket with his central policy being a cut in corporation tax.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949

    It should stay for now. Perhaps in a year or two we could consider a peace dividend if things go well in Ukraine. They key thing is intention.
    Peace dividends never work. We were told there would be a peace dividend at the end of the Cold War but anyone with any sense knew that, even though the chances of a nuclear exchange might have been reduced, ending the East/West balance was going to make the world a more dangerous, rather than less dangerous place. It really is no surprise that the Balkans Wars started so soon after the end of the fall of the Berlin Wall - the two superpower blocs would never have allowed such a dangerous situation to develop during the Cold War.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    DJ41 said:

    mwadams said:

    DJ41 said:

    The Kwarteng chancellorship was a major Cambridge University fail.
    The crème brûlée and Great Court Run college in particular.
    Re-establish the monasteries and give them their assets back?

    Creme Brulee is Caius, not arriviste Trinity Burnt Cream.
    My apologies. What's the difference, or is it only the nomenclature?

    Doesn't the idea come from Catalonia anyway?

    Despite my possible faux pas, it's true that Kwasi Kwarteng was in the in crowd at both Eton and Trinity and he ballsed up the Chancellor job as nobody has ever ballsed it up before so fast. And he doesn't have the humility and charm of Eddie the Eagle. No way would he have been promoted so high if he'd gone to the school down the road or even a second division private boarding school somewhere, or if he'd gone to, well, probably any university apart from Oxford and Cambridge.

    And we can't blame the Tory party's membership in this instance.
    Top post. Eton and Cambridge must be deeply embarrassed to have turned out such a tone-deaf incompetent.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    DJ41 said:

    Is *unt still planning to have Esther McVey as his Number Two?

    I hope you are joking.

    If he is planning that, then he's absolutely not the grownup safe pair of hands that many perceive him as.
    That was his pitch in the summer. A Hunt - McVey joint ticket with his central policy being a cut in corporation tax.
    If we’re being honest, the last leadership election was actually a pretty decent one to lose. Pretty much all the candidates were in a race to the bottom on tax cuts. Pretty much all of them would have faced a serious problem re the credibility of their plans when they came into office. Although I think a number of them would have had the political nous to realise they needed to be more realistic, and perhaps talk about deferring cuts once the COL/energy situation stabilised, whereas Truss and Kwasi just blundered in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,296
    Scott_xP said:

    BoE governor Andrew Bailey says he spoke to new CX Jeremy Hunt yesterday.

    He said there was a "clear meeting of minds" on "fiscal stability and sustainability."

    well, if Andrew Bailey has a mind, all I can say is he's hidden it very well up to now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace could resign if Jeremy Hunt scraps defence spending boost http://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-could-resign-if-jeremy-hunt-scraps-defence-spending-boost-12720949

    It should stay for now. Perhaps in a year or two we could consider a peace dividend if things go well in Ukraine. They key thing is intention.
    Peace dividends never work. We were told there would be a peace dividend at the end of the Cold War but anyone with any sense knew that, even though the chances of a nuclear exchange might have been reduced, ending the East/West balance was going to make the world a more dangerous, rather than less dangerous place. It really is no surprise that the Balkans Wars started so soon after the end of the fall of the Berlin Wall - the two superpower blocs would never have allowed such a dangerous situation to develop during the Cold War.
    Hmmm... There has clearly been a peace dividend since 1990. We failed to spot and prepare for the reverse since the rise of Putin and that is what we need to do (and tbf) are doing now.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=GB
This discussion has been closed.