Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
If thats the case politics changes...it will become who gets most from a static and shrinking pie and will lead to increasing extremism and far rightvpopulist movements
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
No. If you say that we should have an election in 12 months time, the counter-argument is "If we need an election, why wait?". All you would do is open yourself up to accusations of lacking the nerve to commit.
I disagree. There’s plenty of ways to plausibly spin it: “I need to get us through the winter and the economic crisis/the markets wouldn’t like a GE now” etc etc.
Of course the main reason behind it is a cynical attempt to eke out a recovery, but I think a lot of the clamour for a GE would be dented if one was pre—announced, just not taking place immediately.
I have to say that I don't think election before Christmas is at all likely. Early March is I think possible, but then we're going to be excited over the coronation so we move onto about this time next year.
Heaven alone knows what damage Ms Truss and her "team "will have done by then!
I was idly wondering to myself the thought that if things are still chaotic come Feb/March there would be 'polite pressure' on them to call an election to get it out the way before the coronation. Would be a bad look for the Conservatives in particular to be dominating the headlines with economic woes and in-fighting as Charles takes the stage.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
Your gut thinks and speaks? Remarkable!!
Actually, the gut's nerve network has about the same number of neurons and interconnections as a cat's brain. Perhaps he is listening to his inner Larry?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
There were over ten million votes for Corbyn's brand of extremism in 2019 and there are millions more for other varieties.
How many of those votes are genuinely extremist or are just caused by frustrations with the establishment is a different issue.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Even before Truss became PM, the government was facing a nightmarish situation. Avoiding immediate catastrophe is only the first challenge.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
They didn't want unity or stewardship then. Now they do.
But I actually agree people are getting carried away. He and Truss are both taking a gamble.
She's sacrificed Kwarteng and installed Hunt in a last ditch effort to save her skin. It should at least buy her time with the moderate wing.
He has taken on a near impossible job under a leader rolling from crisis to crisis. He may have done so as it is his last chance at senior office, not because he is now a shoo-in for PM.
Yes. The near impossible job remains. He's got to produce a financial statement which is supported by both the markets and hopelessly divided and extremely rebellious backbenchers. If he pulls that little one off, he's got to impose spending cuts to public acclaim, when all the evidence is concern about failing public services, who can't recruit any staff on their current budgets. Another decade of austerity won't win an election, but I don't see the alternative.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Melani, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
I have a stat for you, H. Think you'll like this one. Support amongst younger voters for the Conservatives is now less than for the SNP ... in GB.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Who cares about Farage and you do seem to be leaning that way so why not join him and take the rest of ERG with you
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Starmer won a membership vote as well as support of most MPs, he was NOT imposed on the Labour Party.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Agreed. All the Left/Centrist have to do now is point to Farage etc. and ram home that what you'll get with them is just a more extreme version of Trussism. Could anything now be more politically toxic? In a strange irony, Farage has actually been eaten by his own children.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
They hoped it wouldn't. They are continually upset by the electorate.
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
If thats the case politics changes...it will become who gets most from a static and shrinking pie and will lead to increasing extremism and far rightvpopulist movements
That is the danger in the short-medium term and indeed what many western countries are already experiencing to varying extents.
There really will not be enough wealth created to satisfy either government promises or the populace's desires.
Its why I think increased taxes on property are inevitable.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Melani, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
I have a stat for you, H. Think you'll like this one. Support amongst younger voters for the Conservatives is now less than for the SNP ... in GB.
Amongst 25 to 50 year olds ie most younger voters, even now the Tories are actually 5% more than the SNP.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Starmer won a membership vote as well as support of most MPs, he was NOT imposed on the Labour Party.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
So its agreed the problem is the members.
Its strange for a conservative party that most of them see the party as existing for their benefit, even if it damages the party and the country.
Also, leaders shouldn't just follow, they help shape their followers - a true leader would tell them it's time to move, not wait.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
You need to get out into the country and also your little Englander mindset if you genuinely think that is possible
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
Farage and Tyce have never led any party to any seriously adequate performance in any serious election. True: Brexit did well in the mid-2019 Euros - but only once your Tories had more or less guaranteed that Britain would leave the European parliament by year end. In every proper British local or national election Brexit, UKIP or Reform have contested for the past decade, they've achieved nothing at all, except to worry what was once the world's most successful political party into turning itself into Newkip.
They're as electorally incompetent as Truss. They merely exploit the gullibility and laziness of the Tories' lunatic fringe. Which, fortunately, is now dying off, turning to trips up the Amazon, looking after their grandchildren or trying to make some money.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Agreed. All the Left/Centrist have to do now is point to Farage etc. and ram home that what you'll get with them is just a more extreme version of Trussism. Could anything now be more politically toxic? In a strange irony, Farage has actually been eaten by his own children.
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
He got about 5% of MPs and 4% of members support in the leadership contest!
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
Just noticed that the King has approved a new list of working Peers (not the Boris resignation list), Among the well-known names are Nicholas Soames, Hugo Swire, Andrew Roberts, Ruth Lea, Francis O'Grady, Dave Prentis, and Tom Watson.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Starmer won a membership vote as well as support of most MPs, he was NOT imposed on the Labour Party.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
So its agreed the problem is the members.
Its strange for a conservative party that most of them see the party as existing for their benefit, even if it damages the party and the country.
Also, leaders shouldn't just follow, they help shape their followers - a true leader would tell them it's time to move, not wait.
Do we need to quote Kinnock?
If Labour had deposed Corbyn and imposed a centrist in 2017 it would have split. You cannot ignore what the membership and voter base want
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
They didn't want unity or stewardship then. Now they do.
But I actually agree people are getting carried away. He and Truss are both taking a gamble.
She's sacrificed Kwarteng and installed Hunt in a last ditch effort to save her skin. It should at least buy her time with the moderate wing.
He has taken on a near impossible job under a leader rolling from crisis to crisis. He may have done so as it is his last chance at senior office, not because he is now a shoo-in for PM.
Yes. The near impossible job remains. He's got to produce a financial statement which is supported by both the markets and hopelessly divided and extremely rebellious backbenchers. If he pulls that little one off, he's got to impose spending cuts to public acclaim, when all the evidence is concern about failing public services, who can't recruit any staff on their current budgets. Another decade of austerity won't win an election, but I don't see the alternative.
Hunt’s chances of taking over probably recede a bit if he gets to 31st and Liz has managed to hold on.
We wait and see how keen the Tory MPs are to move against Truss next week. I know that some are saying Hunt has helped buy her a bit of time, but the messaging coming out from briefings on the news last night was pretty dire, even after the Hunt news.
If I was a Tory MP my calculation would be - why wait? I don’t want this person leading me into a GE. So we need to get rid now.
Pessimism about western - or indeed global - economies is overdone. We are on the cusp of a tremendous new technological revolution. AI, VR, digitisation, AR, drones, self drive, cheap space flights. The advent of AI means we won’t need millions of workers: demographic decline is a good thing. Fewer people = less pressure on the global ecosystem. And these fewer people will be richer. Perhaps incomparably richer
But, we need to get through a few “turbulent” years beforehand without dying
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Melani, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
I have a stat for you, H. Think you'll like this one. Support amongst younger voters for the Conservatives is now less than for the SNP ... in GB.
Should also point out many of the young often vote far right on the continent now, even if they wouldn't vote for Conservative parties. It is pensioners who are most anti the far right and far left
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
If thats the case politics changes...it will become who gets most from a static and shrinking pie and will lead to increasing extremism and far rightvpopulist movements
That is the danger in the short-medium term and indeed what many western countries are already experiencing to varying extents.
There really will not be enough wealth created to satisfy either government promises or the populace's desires.
Its why I think increased taxes on property are inevitable.
Now that really would put the wind up some of the people who voted for Truss! However I have always thought that the increase in the value of property was down to the community, not the person who owns the house.
Unless of course they made substantial improvements to it!
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
That is your problem
Conservative members do not reflect voters ambitions and they are increasingly a Corbynite sect heading to the same fate
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Agreed. All the Left/Centrist have to do now is point to Farage etc. and ram home that what you'll get with them is just a more extreme version of Trussism. Could anything now be more politically toxic? In a strange irony, Farage has actually been eaten by his own children.
Farage would say Truss isnt pure enough
That's rather my point. If Liz's unhidden ideological zeal can wreck the British economy what will even more purity do?
Pessimism about western - or indeed global - economies is overdone. We are on the cusp of a tremendous new technological revolution. AI, VR, digitisation, AR, drones, self drive, cheap space flights. The advent of AI means we won’t need millions of workers: demographic decline is a good thing. Fewer people = less pressure on the global ecosystem. And these fewer people will be richer. Perhaps incomparably richer
But, we need to get through a few “turbulent” years beforehand without dying
Only if the average person sees a rise in income despite working less eg via UBI. If not, they will go far left or far right
Pessimism about western - or indeed global - economies is overdone. We are on the cusp of a tremendous new technological revolution. AI, VR, digitisation, AR, drones, self drive, cheap space flights. The advent of AI means we won’t need millions of workers: demographic decline is a good thing. Fewer people = less pressure on the global ecosystem. And these fewer people will be richer. Perhaps incomparably richer
But, we need to get through a few “turbulent” years beforehand without dying
But does our society have the competence to harness this technology effectively anymore...that is questionable
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
Just noticed that the King has approved a new list of working Peers (not the Boris resignation list), Among the well-known names are Nicholas Soames, Hugo Swire, Andrew Roberts, Ruth Lea, Francis O'Grady, Dave Prentis, and Tom Watson.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 1h Seems to be reports coming in (Russian sources) that the Ukrainians are trying to move forward again in Kherson. Ukraine security has been so good, Russian sources are probably all we will have for a while—if indeed it’s even happening
My instinct is they have some gas left in the tank though one thing we aren't too aware of is the Ukrainian military casualties. Zelensky did say he wanted Kherson liberated by the end of September. Some thought that was all an elaborate decoy plan but I'm not so sure. Russia reinforced making it more difficult and with the Kerch bridge down Ukraine will feel time is on their side. I still wonder if it might be best to head south towards Melitopol and Mariupol as then the Russian forces outside the Donbass would be screwed.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
The average conservative voter now appears to constitute 19% of the voting electorate according to opinion polls. A centrist Labour Party is hoovering up 50% of the vote. Just one to ponder.
I’m lost in the Wild West. And the cowboy steaks are fine. I couldn’t be calmer
Those gingham table cloths are straight from the Primrose Hill Picnic Book.
Primrose Hill is a lot more bohemian and daring than here
I am always surprised at the innocent naivety of white rural Americans. And their lack of understanding of the world and, often, their lack of desire to see it. They are also incredibly polite, kind and law abiding - sometimes to a fault. And they don’t drink enough
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Indeed. I have a significant amount on a Tory polling lead before the end of October.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
The average conservative voter now appears to constitute 19% of the voting electorate according to opinion polls. A centrist Labour Party is hoovering up 50% of the vote. Just one to ponder.
Hunt is not really a centrist anyway. He is a small state right wing conservative who happens to be a remainer and doesnt present as batshit crazy.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Utter nonsense
HY really is in the wrong Party.
HY's brand of Conservativism dovetails perfectly with that of Farage.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
The average conservative voter now appears to constitute 19% of the voting electorate according to opinion polls. A centrist Labour Party is hoovering up 50% of the vote. Just one to ponder.
Or 28% in other polls.
However how many of that 50% would vote for a Hunt led Tories over Starmer Labour compared to the number of the 19/28% who would vote for Farage over Hunt?
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Under someone like Hunt they could even potentially run the lead up to the next GE as a giant self-flagellation exercise - we had the right ideas in 2019 but we messed up and we need to say sorry.
Again it’s not a winning strategy (why give you another chance then? comes the cry) but again it might clear the decks for a more modest defeat.
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Indeed. I have a significant amount on a Tory polling lead before the end of October.
You’re nuts. The people have decided. Fuck the Tories
The best they can do is get those Labour leads down to 10-15. And it won’t be easy
I'm starting to think that Boris is the most destructive British politician of modern times. Putting aside the huge question Brexit, it's surely the case that were it not for his culture of bullshit, arrogance and slackness, Liz would never have carried on like she did. (I get the impression Liz is very impressionable, swooned over Boris and his hubris and simply assumed she could simply get away with it too, egged on by the membership of course)
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Indeed. I have a significant amount on a Tory polling lead before the end of October.
You’re nuts. The people have decided. Fuck the Tories
The best they can do is get those Labour leads down to 10-15. And it won’t be easy
The behaviour of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, since after the 2017 election, has been appalling by any measure. Selfish, short-sighted, corrupt, sexually predatory, and engaging in their favourite activity, namely forming the circular firing squad. They were saved by the fact that for much of that period, Labour were worse.
Frankly, I find it hard to care very much if they vanish down the plughole, and got replaced by some other party on the Right.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Utter nonsense
HY really is in the wrong Party.
HY's brand of Conservativism dovetails perfectly with that of Farage.
Excuse me I even voted for Sunak and the May Tories in the European elections.
The problem is centrist lean left voters like you don't want to think there is anyone in Britain further right than Cameron, May or Hunt. Yet in reality about 25 to 30% of the electorate are further right than them
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
I would very much like to see the back of Braverman, Mogg, Coffey and several others before we can relax. Particularly Braverman.
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Under someone like Hunt they could even potentially run the lead up to the next GE as a giant self-flagellation exercise - we had the right ideas in 2019 but we messed up and we need to say sorry.
Again it’s not a winning strategy (why give you another chance then? comes the cry) but again it might clear the decks for a more modest defeat.
You speak almost as though, now Kwarteng's gone and Hunt's been appointed, all the problems have gone away and it's just a question of choosing the most effective presentational strategy for the next election.
The point is that the initial Truss/Kwarteng lunacy was just an attempt to evade reality and inhabit a fantasy world. Now they have to come back to reality, and they are going to have the most horrendous problems to face, and decisions to make that are going to be so difficult as to be near-impossible.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Starmer won a membership vote as well as support of most MPs, he was NOT imposed on the Labour Party.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
So its agreed the problem is the members.
Its strange for a conservative party that most of them see the party as existing for their benefit, even if it damages the party and the country.
Also, leaders shouldn't just follow, they help shape their followers - a true leader would tell them it's time to move, not wait.
Do we need to quote Kinnock?
If Labour had deposed Corbyn and imposed a centrist in 2017 it would have split. You cannot ignore what the membership and voter base want
Those two groups are not the same. The voter base wants something different to the membership, that's one reason the party is down in the polls as even the base are unhappy.
If you can only please one of the members or the voters, please the voters.
Tory members, like corbynites, appear to disagree.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Utter nonsense
I fear he’s right on that one Big G. My remainer dad been in minority at con club for a long time and still is. Without even asking her my mum would prefer Farage to Hunt. 🫣
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 1h Seems to be reports coming in (Russian sources) that the Ukrainians are trying to move forward again in Kherson. Ukraine security has been so good, Russian sources are probably all we will have for a while—if indeed it’s even happening
My instinct is they have some gas left in the tank though one thing we aren't too aware of is the Ukrainian military casualties. Zelensky did say he wanted Kherson liberated by the end of September. Some thought that was all an elaborate decoy plan but I'm not so sure. Russia reinforced making it more difficult and with the Kerch bridge down Ukraine will feel time is on their side. I still wonder if it might be best to head south towards Melitopol and Mariupol as then the Russian forces outside the Donbass would be screwed.
May still be the plan, with the advance on Kherson again a ploy, as it was when they went for Kharkhiv.
That said, the Ukrainians have been making steady progress in tightening the noose around Kherson, with them getting to within a few miles of the airport to the NW of Kherson and blocking a large area of territory to the NE.
The Ukrainians can afford to just keep doing recon on Kherson and looking for weaknesses, smashing what they find with HIMARS. Russian morale in Kherson must be terrible, waiting for an enemy that stays largely out of range picking you off.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
Utter nonsense
HY really is in the wrong Party.
HY's brand of Conservativism dovetails perfectly with that of Farage.
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Under someone like Hunt they could even potentially run the lead up to the next GE as a giant self-flagellation exercise - we had the right ideas in 2019 but we messed up and we need to say sorry.
Again it’s not a winning strategy (why give you another chance then? comes the cry) but again it might clear the decks for a more modest defeat.
You speak almost as though, now Kwarteng's gone and Hunt's been appointed, all the problems have gone away and it's just a question of choosing the most effective presentational strategy for the next election.
The point is that the initial Truss/Kwarteng lunacy was just an attempt to evade reality and inhabit a fantasy world. Now they have to come back to reality, and they are going to have the most horrendous problems to face, and decisions to make that are going to be so difficult as to be near-impossible.
They aren't difficult in the slightest.
Raise taxes.
Cut spending.
See how effortless that was? "Hard choices" was a bit of Gordon Brown bollocks, it means dead easy choices which you are not going to like.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
The average conservative voter now appears to constitute 19% of the voting electorate according to opinion polls. A centrist Labour Party is hoovering up 50% of the vote. Just one to ponder.
Hunt is not really a centrist anyway. He is a small state right wing conservative who happens to be a remainer and doesnt present as batshit crazy.
Dont forget Sunak was called a remainer traitor on here. Reality doesnt matter.
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
Indeed. I have a significant amount on a Tory polling lead before the end of October.
That's bold!
(Would love to see it though, just for the exploding heads of the Labour mega-majority loons!)
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
Depends if that incompetence can be pretty much linked solely to the Truss/Kwarteng experiment.
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
I would very much like to see the back of Braverman, Mogg, Coffey and several others before we can relax. Particularly Braverman.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Starmer won a membership vote as well as support of most MPs, he was NOT imposed on the Labour Party.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
So its agreed the problem is the members.
Its strange for a conservative party that most of them see the party as existing for their benefit, even if it damages the party and the country.
Also, leaders shouldn't just follow, they help shape their followers - a true leader would tell them it's time to move, not wait.
Do we need to quote Kinnock?
If Labour had deposed Corbyn and imposed a centrist in 2017 it would have split. You cannot ignore what the membership and voter base want
Those two groups are not the same. The voter base wants something different to the membership, that's one reason the party is down in the polls as even the base are unhappy.
If you can only please one of the members or the voters, please the voters.
Tory members, like corbynites, appear to disagree.
If Corbyn had been deposed in 2017 he would have split and formed his own party and taken most Labour members with him, the Labour centrist leader would then have got little more than the LDs squeezed between the May Tories and Corbyn Labour
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
The behaviour of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, since after the 2017 election, has been appalling by any measure. Selfish, short-sighted, corrupt, sexually predatory, and engaging in their favourite activity, namely forming the circular firing squad. They were saved by the fact that for much of that period, Labour were worse.
Frankly, I find it hard to care very much if they vanish down the plughole, and got replaced by some other party on the Right.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Or more than one which banned abortion? Oh.... How well is the EU controlling Democratic rights in Hungary? The EU continually fails the tests you apply to the UK. I'd still prefer to be in than out but let's be serious.
Take any 28 disparate countries and you're going to have the odd black sheep but the intentions are good and certainly the major countries such as the UK were expected to set the standards. You must have been embarrassed in Spain as I was in France as Suella Braverman was shown endlessly imitating a plane flying asylum seekers to Rwanda in the hope of getting a front cover in the Telegraph?
Suella Braverman's dream (everyone else's has her on the plane)
Freedland forgets that market forces apply whether or not a country is inside or outside the EU. Inflation, slow growth, etc. are every bit as much issues inside the EU as they are here.
You live in a nation where the main opposition is RN, which is probably one election away from victory. I'm quite certain that France is not an example of a place that is *nice* towards asylum seekers,
Poland and Hungary are "authoritarian democracies". Germany's, Italy's, and Austria's political classes are as corrupt as our own. If, you're seeking good government within the EU, there is Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Slovenia, but not a lot else.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
Mr Corbyn got 32% even in 2019 which is more than the Tories got in 1997 or Labour got in 2010 or 2015 under more centrist leaders. Farage got 31% in the 2019 European elections.
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
Also things were pretty good in 2019. Give the british people 10 years of relentless misery and even they may turn to something like frances Front National
Farage could get the 30 to 40% Le Pen gets in the right circumstances yes, if not more if economic collapse and high immigration.
There is no hope for you if you believe that
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
As I said before the average Conservative voter let alone member now would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party even if you dislike that
This goes to my point earlier - the remaining membership, and a huge proportion of the remaining voters are much closer to Farage than even much of the Parliamentary Party, let alone the broader coalition of voters who elected them in fear of Corbynite Labour.
If they try to appeal to the broader coalition (and fail because, as Leon says, the settled view is that the Tories have had their return), they alienate the rump (and that's and extinction scenario).
If they try to placate the rump (and fail because the policies are unsustainable now the markets don't trust them), it will be a long time before that broader coalition will even consider them again (the 1997++ scenario; which may or may not be extinction - depending on whether the rump stick with them)
I can see why they then stick to these insanely destructive policies because they might be seen, misguidedly, as the least existentially risky *for the party*.
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
Some countries have better growth: Ireland’s done pretty well, for example.
Pessimism about western - or indeed global - economies is overdone. We are on the cusp of a tremendous new technological revolution. AI, VR, digitisation, AR, drones, self drive, cheap space flights. The advent of AI means we won’t need millions of workers: demographic decline is a good thing. Fewer people = less pressure on the global ecosystem. And these fewer people will be richer. Perhaps incomparably richer
But, we need to get through a few “turbulent” years beforehand without dying
Only if the average person sees a rise in income despite working less eg via UBI. If not, they will go far left or far right
We had the discussion about UBI the other day and you still don't seem to understand it. The average person under UBI does not have to see a rise in income nor work less. It is just a different more efficient tax/benefits system. The average persons net tax/UBI will be the same as the tax they currently pay. You set the rate(s) of tax under UBI to ensure that.
PS Sorry I missed the context of the discussion. I withdraw my comments as not being relevant.
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
Some countries have better growth: Ireland’s done pretty well, for example.
A lot of that is froth, due to being a corporate tax haven.
The UK's growth record since 2010 (and since 2000) has been in line with the rich world average, albeit, well below the rates from 1950-99.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Or more than one which banned abortion? Oh.... How well is the EU controlling Democratic rights in Hungary? The EU continually fails the tests you apply to the UK. I'd still prefer to be in than out but let's be serious.
Take any 28 disparate countries and you're going to have the odd black sheep but the intentions are good and certainly the major countries such as the UK were expected to set the standards. You must have been embarrassed in Spain as I was in France as Suella Braverman was shown endlessly imitating a plane flying asylum seekers to Rwanda in the hope of getting a front cover in the Telegraph?
Suella Braverman's dream (everyone else's has her on the plane)
Freedland forgets that market forces apply whether or not a country is inside or outside the EU. Inflation, slow growth, etc. are every bit as much issues inside the EU as they are here.
You live in a nation where the main opposition is RN, which is probably one election away from victory. I'm quite certain that France is not an example of a place that is *nice* towards asylum seekers,
Poland and Hungary are "authoritarian democracies". Germany's, Italy's, and Austria's political classes are as corrupt as our own. If, you're seeking good government within the EU, there is Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Slovenia, but not a lot else.
And, there are differences within Scandinavia.
Denmark is fairly sensible but Sweden has shat the bed with its ultra bleeding-heart attitude to asylum seekers and now has serious social disorder issues in several of its major cities.
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
Some countries have better growth: Ireland’s done pretty well, for example.
A lot of that is froth, due to being a corporate tax haven.
The UK's growth record since 2010 (and since 2000) has been in line with the rich world average, albeit, well below the rates from 1950-99.
No, it really hasn’t.
The UK has fallen behind its peers, see Mark Carney on this subject this week.
Only was the Truss govt survives is if Jeremy Hunt becomes the defacto prime minister...with Truss hidden away and doing the bare minimum....in this way the conservatives could limp on a bit
At the end of the day she’ll still be PM and at the next GE will be the focal point for attacks from the opposition.
With Hunt steadying the ship it may be possible to improve Truss performances whilst strictly limiting contact with the public...Hunt has to be on the media as much as possible so the public see him as the face of the govt
That’s all well and good but come the election Truss will be doing the debates and the choice will be between her and Starmer.
I am far from persuaded that we will have those debates!
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Comments
As Meloni, Trump, Bolsonaro, Tsipras, showed too charismatic extremist populists can win and it is complacent to think otherwise
How many of those votes are genuinely extremist or are just caused by frustrations with the establishment is a different issue.
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/43238/denmark-closer-to-sending-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda
He's got to produce a financial statement which is supported by both the markets and hopelessly divided and extremely rebellious backbenchers.
If he pulls that little one off, he's got to impose spending cuts to public acclaim, when all the evidence is concern about failing public services, who can't recruit any staff on their current budgets.
Another decade of austerity won't win an election, but I don't see the alternative.
He got it when Labour wanted and was ready to move to the centre not before
https://mobile.twitter.com/keithfrankish/status/1580885974245965824
There once was a PM called Truss
Whose policies caused quite a fuss
But instead of departing
She called Mr Kwarteng
And pushed the bloke under a bus
I'll resist the temptation to post the Hunt sequel...
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1581220207024308226?s=20&t=Ihsbm9yw8hyEkBthL_rR6g
There really will not be enough wealth created to satisfy either government promises or the populace's desires.
Its why I think increased taxes on property are inevitable.
Under 25s always vote left anyway
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/13/voting-intention-con-23-lab-51-11-12-oct-2022
Its strange for a conservative party that most of them see the party as existing for their benefit, even if it damages the party and the country.
Also, leaders shouldn't just follow, they help shape their followers - a true leader would tell them it's time to move, not wait.
Do we need to quote Kinnock?
Farage and Tyce have never led any party to any seriously adequate performance in any serious election. True: Brexit did well in the mid-2019 Euros - but only once your Tories had more or less guaranteed that Britain would leave the European parliament by year end. In every proper British local or national election Brexit, UKIP or Reform have contested for the past decade, they've achieved nothing at all, except to worry what was once the world's most successful political party into turning itself into Newkip.
They're as electorally incompetent as Truss. They merely exploit the gullibility and laziness of the Tories' lunatic fringe. Which, fortunately, is now dying off, turning to trips up the Amazon, looking after their grandchildren or trying to make some money.
imposed a centrist in 2017 it would have split. You cannot ignore what the membership and voter base want
We wait and see how keen the Tory MPs are to move against Truss next week. I know that some are saying Hunt has helped buy her a bit of time, but the messaging coming out from briefings on the news last night was pretty dire, even after the Hunt news.
If I was a Tory MP my calculation would be - why wait? I don’t want this person leading me into a GE. So we need to get rid now.
But, we need to get through a few “turbulent” years beforehand without dying
continent now, even if they wouldn't vote for Conservative parties. It is pensioners who are most anti the far right and far left
However I have always thought that the increase in the value of property was down to the community, not the person who owns the house.
Unless of course they made substantial improvements to it!
After all, "Truss" is almost an anagram of "struts".
Conservative members do not reflect voters ambitions and they are increasingly a Corbynite sect heading to the same fate
Just make it go away now" ... K. Bush
https://twitter.com/statecontrick/status/1580911331225767936?s=20&t=Ihsbm9yw8hyEkBthL_rR6g
Put another way, corrodes.....
Your right wing influence in the conservative party is being marginalised and you really are beginning to sound like a Farage apologist
We have had the Bexiteers, the Brexit converts, the Brexit hangers on and the reluctant Brexit apologists.
And they have all been fucking awful.
Now we have some people who knew how shit Brexit was going to be back, SO THE ENTIRE ECONOMY DOESN'T COMPLETELY IMPLODE!!!
If things calm down with a new team, that is possible.
I am always surprised at the innocent naivety of white rural Americans. And their lack of understanding of the world and, often, their lack of desire to see it. They are also incredibly polite, kind and law abiding - sometimes to a fault. And they don’t drink enough
All great fun tho
HY's brand of Conservativism dovetails perfectly with that of Farage.
However how many of that 50% would vote for a Hunt led Tories over Starmer Labour compared to the number of the 19/28% who would vote for Farage over Hunt?
Again it’s not a winning strategy (why give you another chance then? comes the cry) but again it might clear the decks for a more modest defeat.
One intriguing possibility - if sane Tory mps think they have a majority, united behind Hunt - is to split and form a new party.
Jettison the Tory members.
Hunt organically becomes prime minister.
Defacto becomes dejure…
Not likely, admittedly. But not impossible, either.
It’s a way out of the mess.
The best they can do is get those Labour leads down to 10-15. And it won’t be easy
They’re pretty well respected.
#BREAKING First Russian soldiers arrive in Belarus for joint force: Belarusian defence ministry
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1581216105342726150?s=46&t=FyV1p_Po5MFKGEZ8h8BLzA
Frankly, I find it hard to care very much if they vanish down the plughole, and got replaced by some other party on the Right.
The problem is centrist lean left voters like you don't want to think there is anyone in Britain further right than Cameron, May or Hunt. Yet in reality about 25 to 30% of the electorate are further right than them
The point is that the initial Truss/Kwarteng lunacy was just an attempt to evade reality and inhabit a fantasy world. Now they have to come back to reality, and they are going to have the most horrendous problems to face, and decisions to make that are going to be so difficult as to be near-impossible.
If you can only please one of the members or the voters, please the voters.
Tory members, like corbynites, appear to disagree.
That said, the Ukrainians have been making steady progress in tightening the noose around Kherson, with them getting to within a few miles of the airport to the NW of Kherson and blocking a large area of territory to the NE.
The Ukrainians can afford to just keep doing recon on Kherson and looking for weaknesses, smashing what they find with HIMARS. Russian morale in Kherson must be terrible, waiting for an enemy that stays largely out of range picking you off.
Raise taxes.
Cut spending.
See how effortless that was? "Hard choices" was a bit of Gordon Brown bollocks, it means dead easy choices which you are not going to like.
(Would love to see it though, just for the exploding heads of the Labour mega-majority loons!)
thred ded
You live in a nation where the main opposition is RN, which is probably one election away from victory. I'm quite certain that France is not an example of a place that is *nice* towards asylum seekers,
Poland and Hungary are "authoritarian democracies". Germany's, Italy's, and Austria's political classes are as corrupt as our own. If, you're seeking good government within the EU, there is Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Slovenia, but not a lot else.
If they try to appeal to the broader coalition (and fail because, as Leon says, the settled view is that the Tories have had their return), they alienate the rump (and that's and extinction scenario).
If they try to placate the rump (and fail because the policies are unsustainable now the markets don't trust them), it will be a long time before that broader coalition will even consider them again (the 1997++ scenario; which may or may not be extinction - depending on whether the rump stick with them)
I can see why they then stick to these insanely destructive policies because they might be seen, misguidedly, as the least existentially risky *for the party*.
PS Sorry I missed the context of the discussion. I withdraw my comments as not being relevant.
The UK's growth record since 2010 (and since 2000) has been in line with the rich world average, albeit, well below the rates from 1950-99.
Denmark is fairly sensible but Sweden has shat the bed with its ultra bleeding-heart attitude to asylum seekers and now has serious social disorder issues in several of its major cities.
The UK has fallen behind its peers, see Mark Carney on this subject this week.