Though he didn’t say so in these exact words Chancellor Hunt’s message to Sky News was clear — prepare for major real terms spending cuts (and maybe further tax rises too). Trussonomics, such as it was, is dead.
I thought that - except that Truss has promised no spending cuts, and she’s still supposed to be in charge. Which suggests the first phase at least is going to be some surprise tax rises.
The triple lock could go, saving a lot of money - does that count as a spending cut?
I agree on the triple lock but realistically the burden of cuts ought to fall everywhere - less harshly on the poorest but there needs to be some pain for all - it's the only way to avoid the howls of the aggrieved on the news programmes with the nodding head of the la 'Burleys' et al...
I will be really miffed if I don't get my 10% pension increase
That raises the intriguing possibility that there are times when you're *not* really miffed at something.
Ydoether , you malign me, I am actually a happy go lucky chappie. I have led a lucky interesting very happy life and hope I have many happy years to go. In reality I am very cheery.
Well, we all hope you have many happy years to go Malc, but will the turnip supply hold out that long?
Ydoethur , there will always be turnips as long as there are Tories around, inedible mind you.
Only was the Truss govt survives is if Jeremy Hunt becomes the defacto prime minister...with Truss hidden away and doing the bare minimum....in this way the conservatives could limp on a bit
At the end of the day she’ll still be PM and at the next GE will be the focal point for attacks from the opposition.
With Hunt steadying the ship it may be possible to improve Truss performances whilst strictly limiting contact with the public...Hunt has to be on the media as much as possible so the public see him as the face of the govt
That’s all well and good but come the election Truss will be doing the debates and the choice will be between her and Starmer.
Unfortunately a spike in mortgage rates is also likely to precipitate a spike in rents. BTL landlords will hike rents so they can still make a profit, or exit the market if they think the local market cannot support what they want to charge. The latter means reduced supply and more competition for the remaining properties.
Also, if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, they may not be able to service any mortgage costs on the properties they own.
Bloomberg were forecasting 8.5% US mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase interest rates as they concentrate on defeating inflation
There are going to be serious consequences for mortgage holders across the west due to this policy
The good news for the US is they ditched Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) after 2008, so existing homeowners almost always have their existing rates locked in for the long term. The new, much higher rates will generally only affect new purchases.
Brits aren’t so lucky.
Our mortgages are heavily skewed towards 2 and 5 year fixes.
Luck? Lack of foresight. There is no reason why it could not be done here.
From what I can tell, it would require some major changes at the back end of the mortgage market.
We’d need a Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac setup and/or the BoE to buy long dated mortgage backed securities.
I’m out of my depth here, though!
Does anyone on PB actually know how the US mortgage market works, in comparison to the UK?
Why can’t we have 25 year fixed rate mortgages, on decent terms, like the yanks?
To simplify a lot, long-term investors like pension funds do not want to take on the credit risk that 10%+ of mortgages fail at the same time. To make sure investors buy US fixed-rate mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy them first, guarantee the credit risk, then sell on the guaranteed debt as securities. If credit risk were just random, this would work safely, but in the real world, crises cause systemically large numbers of households to stop repaying at the same time. Fannie and Freddie were legally non-government agencies but of course they needed hundreds of billions of dollars of bailout funds in 2008, as everyone expected them to in a huge crisis. So you need a government that will immunise the long-term investors from credit risk by taking on a few percentage points of GDP to debt when things go bad.
Thanks. That’s a great explanation.
I don’t like the idea of the government having direct exposure to mortgages, even if I like the idea of 25 yr fixed mortgages from the perspective of a prospective homeowner.
My current view is that Truss goes in 2023, Hunt steadying things so the immediate crisis is over, MPs thrashing out not only who replaces her (no membership vote) but who gets what jobs.
From a betting perspective, I'm green whenever she goes and whoever replaces her but far and away the best for me is if she goes this year and Hunt becomes PM. At the moment the greenery is very lopsided but I'm holding on because I think if she goes rapidly that means it must be Hunt, and if she goes next year that gives him a lot of time to establish himself (in short, he's in a strong position provided he doesn't go along with any of Truss' brilliant ideas).
Only was the Truss govt survives is if Jeremy Hunt becomes the defacto prime minister...with Truss hidden away and doing the bare minimum....in this way the conservatives could limp on a bit
At the end of the day she’ll still be PM and at the next GE will be the focal point for attacks from the opposition.
With Hunt steadying the ship it may be possible to improve Truss performances whilst strictly limiting contact with the public...Hunt has to be on the media as much as possible so the public see him as the face of the govt
That’s all well and good but come the election Truss will be doing the debates and the choice will be between her and Starmer.
To her great credit Truss has accepted she is now pm in name only so we wont be seeing any more silly policies from her...maybe she can be coached more for the debates hoping she can put in an average performance
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only was the Truss govt survives is if Jeremy Hunt becomes the defacto prime minister...with Truss hidden away and doing the bare minimum....in this way the conservatives could limp on a bit
At the end of the day she’ll still be PM and at the next GE will be the focal point for attacks from the opposition.
With Hunt steadying the ship it may be possible to improve Truss performances whilst strictly limiting contact with the public...Hunt has to be on the media as much as possible so the public see him as the face of the govt
That’s all well and good but come the election Truss will be doing the debates and the choice will be between her and Starmer.
To her great credit Truss has accepted she is now pm in name only so we wont be seeing any more silly policies from her...maybe she can be coached more for the debates hoping she can put in an average performance
Has she really? It's only 24 hours. Less, actually. Let's see ...
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 2h Hunt is a grown-up arriving at the scene of the disaster. If you're a Tory MP who wants to oppose the new @Jeremy_Hunt strategy that means you want to go back into battle against the bond markets. Not a good idea.
Also Jeremy Hunt can appeal to blue wall southern seats and hopefully hold on to some of those too
He is just as shit as the rest of them, if he is the answer God help us.
The first question is, how can the Tories get someone who can go on the radio and not self-destruct making everything worse? He's the answer to that one, at least.
Good day for our trade balance. With this morning’s sunshine and wind we’re currently generating 20gw of renewable electricity (21.4gw if you include the questionable biomass output), and exporting a whopping 2.6gw to France which is still suffering from nuclear downtime, as well as 1.9gw to other countries.
Also Jeremy Hunt can appeal to blue wall southern seats and hopefully hold on to some of those too
He is just as shit as the rest of them, if he is the answer God help us.
It is all relative Malcolm. He may well be the best of a bad bunch. The sad reality is that these nutters are in charge and, whilst I would vote them out in a heartbeat, I will be happy to have one running things who does not utterly trash the economy unlike the toxic KT mix.
@Casino_Royale iove you too. I just listened to Hunt in R4, picking up the pieces, essentially arguing the opposite of what had been the line hours before. He would have been attacked quite viscously by some Tories for saying what he said if he had said it last week. A 180 change, not only in policy but in vision and values. However sober and sensible he came across, I felt it added to the absurdity of the week. I wonder if it will stick.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Unfortunately a spike in mortgage rates is also likely to precipitate a spike in rents. BTL landlords will hike rents so they can still make a profit, or exit the market if they think the local market cannot support what they want to charge. The latter means reduced supply and more competition for the remaining properties.
Also, if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, they may not be able to service any mortgage costs on the properties they own.
Bloomberg were forecasting 8.5% US mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase interest rates as they concentrate on defeating inflation
There are going to be serious consequences for mortgage holders across the west due to this policy
The good news for the US is they ditched Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) after 2008, so existing homeowners almost always have their existing rates locked in for the long term. The new, much higher rates will generally only affect new purchases.
Brits aren’t so lucky.
Our mortgages are heavily skewed towards 2 and 5 year fixes.
Luck? Lack of foresight. There is no reason why it could not be done here.
From what I can tell, it would require some major changes at the back end of the mortgage market.
We’d need a Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac setup and/or the BoE to buy long dated mortgage backed securities.
I’m out of my depth here, though!
Does anyone on PB actually know how the US mortgage market works, in comparison to the UK?
Why can’t we have 25 year fixed rate mortgages, on decent terms, like the yanks?
To simplify a lot, long-term investors like pension funds do not want to take on the credit risk that 10%+ of mortgages fail at the same time. To make sure investors buy US fixed-rate mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy them first, guarantee the credit risk, then sell on the guaranteed debt as securities. If credit risk were just random, this would work safely, but in the real world, crises cause systemically large numbers of households to stop repaying at the same time. Fannie and Freddie were legally non-government agencies but of course they needed hundreds of billions of dollars of bailout funds in 2008, as everyone expected them to in a huge crisis. So you need a government that will immunise the long-term investors from credit risk by taking on a few percentage points of GDP to debt when things go bad.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
That is probably one to add to the collection of HY posts to bookmark....
Also Jeremy Hunt can appeal to blue wall southern seats and hopefully hold on to some of those too
He is just as shit as the rest of them, if he is the answer God help us.
It is all relative Malcolm. He may well be the best of a bad bunch. The sad reality is that these nutters are in charge and, whilst I would vote them out in a heartbeat, I will be happy to have one running things who does not utterly trash the economy unlike the toxic KT mix.
There’s a Corbyn-Starmer feel to Truss-Hunt. He’s very much the Starmer of the Tory party.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would they have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Yes that is why Hunt must stay as a back seat driver for Truss with Truss there to placate the loony members whilst Hunt runs the govt behind the scenes
Also Jeremy Hunt can appeal to blue wall southern seats and hopefully hold on to some of those too
He is just as shit as the rest of them, if he is the answer God help us.
The first question is, how can the Tories get someone who can go on the radio and not self-destruct making everything worse? He's the answer to that one, at least.
Hunt, of course, has skeletons in his cupboard, which the Covid inquiry might reveal.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Unfortunately a spike in mortgage rates is also likely to precipitate a spike in rents. BTL landlords will hike rents so they can still make a profit, or exit the market if they think the local market cannot support what they want to charge. The latter means reduced supply and more competition for the remaining properties.
Also, if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, they may not be able to service any mortgage costs on the properties they own.
Bloomberg were forecasting 8.5% US mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase interest rates as they concentrate on defeating inflation
There are going to be serious consequences for mortgage holders across the west due to this policy
The good news for the US is they ditched Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) after 2008, so existing homeowners almost always have their existing rates locked in for the long term. The new, much higher rates will generally only affect new purchases.
Brits aren’t so lucky.
Our mortgages are heavily skewed towards 2 and 5 year fixes.
You seem to be working on the premise that this is a good idea but it simply isn't. If you have a fixed mortgage from even 6 months ago you are irredeemably stuck. You cannot move, cannot take that great new job in Texas, probably cannot sell your house for as much as paid for it because borrowing multiples have decreased and are facing economic ruin if you lose your current job.
One of our many structural problems in this country is the lack of mobility. Selling and buying houses costs literally thousands so people are reluctant to move. The stamp duty taxes, energy efficiency certificates and the like make this even more difficult so we end up with pockets of unemployment and pockets of severe shortages of labour. We try to compensate by spending significant parts of our day commuting but with current fuel costs and the chaos on the railway network that is becoming ever less viable. Amercia is creating its own problems in this regard and it will be something they regret.
Energy certificates is a bizarre one to include in that list. Sure, they could be abolished but they cost £80. The real costs of moving are: estate agents, solicitors, stamp duty. Typically several £1000s for each of those.
It is not the cost of the certificates, it is the cost of the work those certificates will entail. Certainly in Scotland it is going to become illegal to sell properties with the lowest scores, forcing the sellers to carry out insulation works etc. These policies would already be in force but were suspended because of Covid but they will be back.
They are absolute crap, I have 2 foot sandstone solid walls in my property , only way to insulate that would be to fit on plaster inside , wreck all the cornishings and covings, decor etc , would cost a fortune, wreck the property and achieve nothing.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Honestly, no. This is just a false assessment.
There is no evidence of widespread support across the country for the kind of right-wing extremism touted by Farage, and embraced to a significant degree by Truss's government recently. Polls on specific issues are pretty clear about that.
If the Tories fudged a coronation of Hunt, many (but still a minority) of the c.170k current Tory members would no doubt leave and support Farage but others would return to the fold and the bulk of 2019 Tory voters would not switch to RefUK.
Brexit is no longer an issue for most people. Obviously if Hunt campaigned on a Rejoin policy that would be different, but that's never happening.
Unfortunately a spike in mortgage rates is also likely to precipitate a spike in rents. BTL landlords will hike rents so they can still make a profit, or exit the market if they think the local market cannot support what they want to charge. The latter means reduced supply and more competition for the remaining properties.
Also, if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, they may not be able to service any mortgage costs on the properties they own.
Bloomberg were forecasting 8.5% US mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase interest rates as they concentrate on defeating inflation
There are going to be serious consequences for mortgage holders across the west due to this policy
The good news for the US is they ditched Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) after 2008, so existing homeowners almost always have their existing rates locked in for the long term. The new, much higher rates will generally only affect new purchases.
Brits aren’t so lucky.
Our mortgages are heavily skewed towards 2 and 5 year fixes.
Luck? Lack of foresight. There is no reason why it could not be done here.
From what I can tell, it would require some major changes at the back end of the mortgage market.
We’d need a Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac setup and/or the BoE to buy long dated mortgage backed securities.
I’m out of my depth here, though!
Does anyone on PB actually know how the US mortgage market works, in comparison to the UK?
Why can’t we have 25 year fixed rate mortgages, on decent terms, like the yanks?
To simplify a lot, long-term investors like pension funds do not want to take on the credit risk that 10%+ of mortgages fail at the same time. To make sure investors buy US fixed-rate mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy them first, guarantee the credit risk, then sell on the guaranteed debt as securities. If credit risk were just random, this would work safely, but in the real world, crises cause systemically large numbers of households to stop repaying at the same time. Fannie and Freddie were legally non-government agencies but of course they needed hundreds of billions of dollars of bailout funds in 2008, as everyone expected them to in a huge crisis. So you need a government that will immunise the long-term investors from credit risk by taking on a few percentage points of GDP to debt when things go bad.
So it could be done if we really wanted to do it.
It could be, but from the point of view of society as a whole, it's just reshuffling the costs when interest rates go up from one group of people to another.
(Edit to add, probably only a few countries in the world can do it, because the only way to make the model work is to credibly convince investors that your government will bail out the the guarantee agency.)
Unfortunately a spike in mortgage rates is also likely to precipitate a spike in rents. BTL landlords will hike rents so they can still make a profit, or exit the market if they think the local market cannot support what they want to charge. The latter means reduced supply and more competition for the remaining properties.
Also, if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, they may not be able to service any mortgage costs on the properties they own.
Bloomberg were forecasting 8.5% US mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase interest rates as they concentrate on defeating inflation
There are going to be serious consequences for mortgage holders across the west due to this policy
The good news for the US is they ditched Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) after 2008, so existing homeowners almost always have their existing rates locked in for the long term. The new, much higher rates will generally only affect new purchases.
Brits aren’t so lucky.
Our mortgages are heavily skewed towards 2 and 5 year fixes.
You seem to be working on the premise that this is a good idea but it simply isn't. If you have a fixed mortgage from even 6 months ago you are irredeemably stuck. You cannot move, cannot take that great new job in Texas, probably cannot sell your house for as much as paid for it because borrowing multiples have decreased and are facing economic ruin if you lose your current job.
One of our many structural problems in this country is the lack of mobility. Selling and buying houses costs literally thousands so people are reluctant to move. The stamp duty taxes, energy efficiency certificates and the like make this even more difficult so we end up with pockets of unemployment and pockets of severe shortages of labour. We try to compensate by spending significant parts of our day commuting but with current fuel costs and the chaos on the railway network that is becoming ever less viable. Amercia is creating its own problems in this regard and it will be something they regret.
Also Jeremy Hunt can appeal to blue wall southern seats and hopefully hold on to some of those too
He is just as shit as the rest of them, if he is the answer God help us.
The first question is, how can the Tories get someone who can go on the radio and not self-destruct making everything worse? He's the answer to that one, at least.
Hunt, of course, has skeletons in his cupboard, which the Covid inquiry might reveal.
He also has a potential China problem that his enemies on the right will ruthlessly exploit. Fair or not.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Farage has a nice gig at GB News. I'm not sure he would be wise to give that up for another (probably failed) attempt to get into parliament.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
I don't think anyone from any party is saying there shouldn't be help with energy bills. Everyone proposes that. It is misleading to claim this was an issue with the mini budget (although I note Truss keeps raising it).
It was everything else, which is bit by bit getting reversed.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Surely Farage is finished, and Johnson is weaker and further from Downing Street than he was this time yesterday. Don't you just need to jump on board with the Hunt/ Truss shiny new Conservative Party and hope for the best?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Farage has a nice gig at GB News. I'm not sure he would be wise to give that up for another (probably failed) attempt to get into parliament.
Farage has been one of the most effective politicians over the last decade or so (damn it) and without ever getting into parliament and as a bonus it has also earned him a lot of money as an MEP and gigs. Might be worth it just to keep the profile up. He doesn't seem to need to win a seat in parliament to both be effective and earn money.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 1h Seems to be reports coming in (Russian sources) that the Ukrainians are trying to move forward again in Kherson. Ukraine security has been so good, Russian sources are probably all we will have for a while—if indeed it’s even happening
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Honestly, no. This is just a false assessment.
There is no evidence of widespread support across the country for the kind of right-wing extremism touted by Farage, and embraced to a significant degree by Truss's government recently. Polls on specific issues are pretty clear about that.
If the Tories fudged a coronation of Hunt, many (but still a minority) of the c.170k current Tory members would no doubt leave and support Farage but others would return to the fold and the bulk of 2019 Tory voters would not switch to RefUK.
Brexit is no longer an issue for most people. Obviously if Hunt campaigned on a Rejoin policy that would be different, but that's never happening.
That is just not true.
Amongst those voters who voted for Boris in 2019 there is plenty of support for Farage style low tax and slash immigration and anti woke rightwing populism. Indeed probably on a forced choice most 2019 Conservative voters would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party.
For goodness sake in France and Italy Le Pen and Meloni already now lead the right, the main centre right partys have collapsed. In the US Trump still is the main figure of the right.
In Canada and Australia too populist right leaders lead the main opposition
And my piece on what next for Lame Duck Liz. 'Just as markets know how to handle junk bonds, Tory MPs have form in ditching their own junk blondes who have lost their value..' (Thatcher, Johnson...Truss?)
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Farage has a nice gig at GB News. I'm not sure he would be wise to give that up for another (probably failed) attempt to get into parliament.
Farage has been one of the most effective politicians over the last decade or so (damn it) and without ever getting into parliament and as a bonus it has also earned him a lot of money as an MEP and gigs. Might be worth it just to keep the profile up. He doesn't seem to need to win a seat in parliament to both be effective and earn money.
I would also add, much as I hate his politics, Farage deserves a seat in the Lords much more than many of the non-entity ex-MPs that get put there, although I would hate with a passion every speech he made.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Or more than one which banned abortion? Oh.... How well is the EU controlling Democratic rights in Hungary? The EU continually fails the tests you apply to the UK. I'd still prefer to be in than out but let's be serious.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
2019: "The European Union has come up with a new plan to evacuate vulnerable migrants and refugees: send them to Rwanda."
2021: "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently announced that Denmark's goal is to receive 'zero' asylum seekers. Achievement of this goal seems to be rapidly approaching. Last year only 1,547 people asked for asylum in Denmark"
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Things will rapidly change if the polling situation starts to recover. It will be down to Hunt.
Within minutes of the announcement that she had made it to the final two in the Tory leadership contest in July, Liz Truss sent Tory MPs a message on social media.
“Thank you for putting your trust in me,” she tweeted. “I’m ready to hit the ground from day one.” Her post was quickly deleted and the word “running” was added in.
But her initial message could not have been more prescient.
Hit the ground without a parachute. Luckily (?) she was strapped to Kwasi’s back and he took the brunt of the impact. How much of a brunt is yet to be seen.
I note a 'Resident Evil' flavour to current events, suitable for this ghoulish season. Truss gives out strong Donna/Angie Beneviento vibes, while Mordaunt has something of the Lady Dimitrescu about her.
Even now I would consider Mordaunt is a poor choice of replacement for leader/PM; things can always get worse. The scuttlebutt from civil servants and on-the-record verdict from politicians alike is simply a little too damning, regarding her attitude to her Ministerial duties, the truth and her own principles. In essence, it would simply return the Premiership to all the flaws of Boris Johnson with none of the positive qualities. Stephen Pollard's recent article in The Critic sums it up well (https://thecritic.co.uk/less-is-mordaunt/). I think she would be an excellent campaigner and a poor administrator.
The saving grace may be that Mordaunt may be aware enough of her own shortcomings to have policy agenda and party less centred on her, and there were hints of this strategy in her leadership campaign. But this is only possible to a certain extent.
This is not to say that she is not an extremely able communicator. Perhaps the Conservatives should make her Chair of the Party.
By all means replace Truss as soon as you can - now would be nice - but choose wisely!
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Farage has a nice gig at GB News. I'm not sure he would be wise to give that up for another (probably failed) attempt to get into parliament.
Farage has been one of the most effective politicians over the last decade or so (damn it) and without ever getting into parliament and as a bonus it has also earned him a lot of money as an MEP and gigs. Might be worth it just to keep the profile up. He doesn't seem to need to win a seat in parliament to both be effective and earn money.
Previously though Farage had a substantial salary as an MEP
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
Problem with that is Hunt as pm causes real problens with the members. Better to keep him as backseat driver with Truss pm in name only
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
I've got an idea. Farage could run for the next GE with a memorable slogan: Get Brexit Done.
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
No. If you say that we should have an election in 12 months time, the counter-argument is "If we need an election, why wait?". All you would do is open yourself up to accusations of lacking the nerve to commit.
I note a 'Resident Evil' flavour to current events, suitable for this ghoulish season. Truss gives out strong Donna/Angie Beneviento vibes, while Mordaunt has something of the Lady Dimitrescu about her.
Even now I would consider Mordaunt is a poor choice of replacement for leader/PM; things can always get worse. The scuttlebutt from civil servants and on-the-record verdict from politicians alike is simply a little too damning, regarding her attitude to her Ministerial duties, the truth and her own principles. In essence, it would simply return the Premiership to all the flaws of Boris Johnson with none of the positive qualities. Stephen Pollard's recent article in The Critic sums it up well (https://thecritic.co.uk/less-is-mordaunt/). I think she would be an excellent campaigner and a poor administrator.
The saving grace may be that Mordaunt may be aware enough of her own shortcomings to have policy agenda and party less centred on her, and there were hints of this strategy in her leadership campaign. But this is only possible to a certain extent.
This is not to say that she is not an extremely able communicator. Perhaps the Conservatives should make her Chair of the Party.
By all means replace Truss as soon as you can - now would be nice - but choose wisely!
Now that Hunt is back in the frame I cannot see a situation where Penny gets the top job IMHO. 24 hours ago I’d have said she had a chance.
Now I think she needs to be a prominent member of the government but she shouldn’t be the chairman. Give her FCO as I suggested above - allows her to do her stand in front of the flag Jam and Jerusalem stuff without the danger of putting her in charge of policy that she could mess up.
Its been a very bad time for feminism thinking about it with 2 failed female leaders in a row. Tories have to be very carrful who they pick for their next female leader
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
2019: "The European Union has come up with a new plan to evacuate vulnerable migrants and refugees: send them to Rwanda."
2021: "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently announced that Denmark's goal is to receive 'zero' asylum seekers. Achievement of this goal seems to be rapidly approaching. Last year only 1,547 people asked for asylum in Denmark"
In the past six years, the European Union, weary of the financial and political costs of receiving migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, has created a shadow immigration system that stops them before they reach Europe.
It has equipped and trained the Libyan Coast Guard, a quasi-military organization linked to militias in the country, to patrol the Mediterranean, sabotaging humanitarian rescue operations and capturing migrants. The migrants are then detained indefinitely in a network of profit-making prisons run by the militias. In September of this year, around six thousand migrants were being held, many of them in Al Mabani.
International aid agencies have documented an array of abuses: detainees tortured with electric shocks, children raped by guards, families extorted for ransom, men and women sold into forced labor.
“The E.U. did something they carefully considered and planned for many years,” Salah Marghani, Libya’s Minister of Justice from 2012 to 2014, told me. “Create a hellhole in Libya, with the idea of deterring people from heading to Europe.”
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Only was the Truss govt survives is if Jeremy Hunt becomes the defacto prime minister...with Truss hidden away and doing the bare minimum....in this way the conservatives could limp on a bit
At the end of the day she’ll still be PM and at the next GE will be the focal point for attacks from the opposition.
With Hunt steadying the ship it may be possible to improve Truss performances whilst strictly limiting contact with the public...Hunt has to be on the media as much as possible so the public see him as the face of the govt
That’s all well and good but come the election Truss will be doing the debates and the choice will be between her and Starmer.
To her great credit Truss has accepted she is now pm in name only so we wont be seeing any more silly policies from her...maybe she can be coached more for the debates hoping she can put in an average performance
That would be to assume a reservoir of goodwill, which doesn't exist.
Its been a very bad time for feminism thinking about it with 2 failed female leaders in a row. Tories have to be very carrful who they pick for their next female leader
Lucky dip might actually work better for them than trusting the members......
I note a 'Resident Evil' flavour to current events, suitable for this ghoulish season. Truss gives out strong Donna/Angie Beneviento vibes, while Mordaunt has something of the Lady Dimitrescu about her.
Even now I would consider Mordaunt is a poor choice of replacement for leader/PM; things can always get worse. The scuttlebutt from civil servants and on-the-record verdict from politicians alike is simply a little too damning, regarding her attitude to her Ministerial duties, the truth and her own principles. In essence, it would simply return the Premiership to all the flaws of Boris Johnson with none of the positive qualities. Stephen Pollard's recent article in The Critic sums it up well (https://thecritic.co.uk/less-is-mordaunt/). I think she would be an excellent campaigner and a poor administrator.
The saving grace may be that Mordaunt may be aware enough of her own shortcomings to have policy agenda and party less centred on her, and there were hints of this strategy in her leadership campaign. But this is only possible to a certain extent.
This is not to say that she is not an extremely able communicator. Perhaps the Conservatives should make her Chair of the Party.
By all means replace Truss as soon as you can - now would be nice - but choose wisely!
Now that Hunt is back in the frame I cannot see a situation where Penny gets the top job IMHO. 24 hours ago I’d have said she had a chance.
Now I think she needs to be a prominent member of the government but she shouldn’t be the chairman. Give her FCO as I suggested above - allows her to do her stand in front of the flag Jam and Jerusalem stuff without the danger of putting her in charge of policy that she could mess up.
Like i say absolutely vital the next female leader performs well. We cant have 3 failed female leaders in a row
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
No. If you say that we should have an election in 12 months time, the counter-argument is "If we need an election, why wait?". All you would do is open yourself up to accusations of lacking the nerve to commit.
I disagree. There’s plenty of ways to plausibly spin it: “I need to get us through the winter and the economic crisis/the markets wouldn’t like a GE now” etc etc.
Of course the main reason behind it is a cynical attempt to eke out a recovery, but I think a lot of the clamour for a GE would be dented if one was pre—announced, just not taking place immediately.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
Oh look - The Farage Bogeyman is being waved about. We had better vote Tory or the economy might collapse.
It has worked for a couple of decades, but I doubt it will work any more. Farage is an odious tosser and your lot have shown what happens when odious tossers are given the job.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories then shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
No. If you say that we should have an election in 12 months time, the counter-argument is "If we need an election, why wait?". All you would do is open yourself up to accusations of lacking the nerve to commit.
I disagree. There’s plenty of ways to plausibly spin it: “I need to get us through the winter and the economic crisis/the markets wouldn’t like a GE now” etc etc.
Of course the main reason behind it is a cynical attempt to eke out a recovery, but I think a lot of the clamour for a GE would be dented if one was pre—announced, just not taking place immediately.
I have to say that I don't think election before Christmas is at all likely. Early March is I think possible, but then we're going to be excited over the coronation so we move onto about this time next year.
Heaven alone knows what damage Ms Truss and her "team "will have done by then!
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
Hunt projects a steadfastness and calmness. With him basically running the govt and Truss a powerless figurehead things may settle down
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Or more than one which banned abortion? Oh.... How well is the EU controlling Democratic rights in Hungary? The EU continually fails the tests you apply to the UK. I'd still prefer to be in than out but let's be serious.
Take any 28 disparate countries and you're going to have the odd black sheep but the intentions are good and certainly the major countries such as the UK were expected to set the standards. You must have been embarrassed in Spain as I was in France as Suella Braverman was shown endlessly imitating a plane flying asylum seekers to Rwanda in the hope of getting a front cover in the Telegraph?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
Your gut thinks and speaks? Remarkable!!
You don't want to know what part of his body he types with.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
There are a few complicating details with the story. Canadian politics is far more regional than the UK. Those new parties were Western parties and not nationally popular. I think they won 1 or 2 seats ever in Ontario, none in Quebec or the Atlantic provinces. Overtaking the Tories in numbers was easy because the Tories went to a few dozen seats, but in most of Canada they were all way behind so they had no chance of a majority until they merged into a bigger, more centrist mush.
Assuming Truss goes and a "sensible" cabinet is assembled the consensus seems to be that Labour will still get a majority but Tory losses will be reduced. The thing is I can't shake off the feeling that Labour might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Nothing is impossible and big leads have been blown before.
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
It'll be interesting to see the protectory of Hunt's ascent from here. The British Right have been deeply wounded by the shenanigans of the last few weeks, so every sinew will be strained to convince the public that they've regained their sanity. Hunt will be key to that: loyalty will be shown, his words will be treated as sacrosanct, gushing profiles will be written and journalists will attempt to reveal the man behind the genius. The clock has been reset. It all begins again.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
I doubt that.
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
24 hours ago virtually no one was mentioning Jeremy Hunt. He was a has been after an atrocious vote in the leadership election. Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy? If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
They didn't want unity or stewardship then. Now they do.
But I actually agree people are getting carried away. He and Truss are both taking a gamble.
She's sacrificed Kwarteng and installed Hunt in a last ditch effort to save her skin. It should at least buy her time with the moderate wing.
He has taken on a near impossible job under a leader rolling from crisis to crisis. He may have done so as it is his last chance at senior office, not because he is now a shoo-in for PM.
Thinking about the 'go for growth' strategy I do wonder if strong economic growth is now impossible for first world countries.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.
Freeland rightly points to the other elephant in the Tory room - the death of sovereignty. Brexit was all about Take Back Control. We could do what we like. We held all the cards. We are so important.
What KT vs the markets demonstrated was the stupidity of that argument. We have been humiliated on a global scale and our arrogant exceptionalism has been slapped down by a global community who refused to play along any longer.
I'm sure that Brexit will still keep popping its head above the Tory parapet, but politically it's now dead. People won't be in fear of voters who have had a very expensive demonstration of our lack of power over foreigners. We all work together or we know what happens
I think Freeland is right about sovereignty and the myth of Brexit. I’m less clear whether that’s how (Leave) voters will interpret events.
I've always seen the EU as a benign umbrella demanding civilised standards in return for membership.
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Or more than one which banned abortion? Oh.... How well is the EU controlling Democratic rights in Hungary? The EU continually fails the tests you apply to the UK. I'd still prefer to be in than out but let's be serious.
Take any 28 disparate countries and you're going to have the odd black sheep but the intentions are good and certainly the major countries such as the UK were expected to set the standards. You must have been embarrassed in Spain as I was in France as Suella Braverman was shown endlessly imitating a plane flying asylum seekers to Rwanda in the hope of getting a front cover in the Telegraph?
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
If the MPs crowned Hunt PM, Farage would return to lead RefUK and RefUK might well overtake the Tories as the main party of the right at the next general election and opposition to a Starmer led Labour government. That truly would be Canada 1993 for the Tories.
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
I think that’s fighting the last election (or referendum). One thing I don’t sense in any of the polling is an appetite for more vacuous culture warrior clown shows, which is what any iteration of a Farage-led party would be.
Do you ever read any history? In 1993 the populist right Canadian Reform party overtook the Canadian Tories to become the main party of the right in an election won by the Liberals. The Tories never recovered, merging in 2003 with Reform's successor party, the Canadian Alliance, to form today's Conservative Party of Canada.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
Have you ever considered that RefUK might be a more comfortable fit for you than the Conservative Party?
No, I have never voted for Farage even in a European election. I would stay loyal to a rump Hunt led Tories even if a Farage led party overtook it. However I also know my gut and my gut says a Hunt led Tories could see the Tories not only lose but be replaced as the main opposition by a Farage led party
Youd obviously want to vote for Farage in that situation, he'd be closer to what you want, why not vote for him? A great many Tories did so previously.
Just noticed that the King has approved a new list of working Peers (not the Boris resignation list), Among the well-known names are Nicholas Soames, Hugo Swire, Andrew Roberts, Ruth Lea, Francis O'Grady, Dave Prentis, and Tom Watson.
A year or two of Hunt might be good for Labour. Get things on a bit of an even keel so they don’t inherit a basket case country.
Can’t see him getting a coronation as PM though. He’s not an anti woke libertarian Brexit ultra. Tory members would be furious.
Indeed, that's the problem with today's Conservative Party - the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
The lunatics are mostly in the membership. If the MPs coronate Hunt, what can the members do about it? Deselect the MPs? The electorate is likely to do that anyway. The advantage for the MPs is that more of them might survive than leaving it up to the loonies.
Only 18 Tory MPs (5%) voted for Hunt in the first round of the leadership election, and he was eliminated. Doesn't suggest a huge amount of support in the parliamentary party.
Back then, the Tories were not staring oblivion in the face.
Look, you would still vote for Starmer over a Hunt led Tories so why do Tories need to care who non Tories would like as Tory leader? Especially if actual Tories them shifted en masse to Farage. It is not happening anyway, the right would put up a candidate against Hunt who would win
The right need to stop spitting their dummies out. They have quite frankly had more than enough chances to demonstrate they can produce a stable, competent government and they have messed it up each and every time.
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
The right will survive regardless whether under Farage, Sunak, Hunt or Truss or Braverman, the Tory party might not, that is the point.
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
You know, it wasn’t that long ago when I remember some people on the left of the Labour Party saying that the Party wouldn’t survive a shift to the centre.
Comments
I don’t like the idea of the government having direct exposure to mortgages, even if I like the idea of 25 yr fixed mortgages from the perspective of a prospective homeowner.
From a betting perspective, I'm green whenever she goes and whoever replaces her but far and away the best for me is if she goes this year and Hunt becomes PM. At the moment the greenery is very lopsided but I'm holding on because I think if she goes rapidly that means it must be Hunt, and if she goes next year that gives him a lot of time to establish himself (in short, he's in a strong position provided he doesn't go along with any of Truss' brilliant ideas).
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
·
2h
Hunt is a grown-up arriving at the scene of the disaster. If you're a Tory MP who wants to oppose the new
@Jeremy_Hunt strategy that means you want to go back into battle against the bond markets. Not a good idea.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1581188830920511488
If anything has shown this interpretation to be accurate you only need to look at the UK since we left.
What would we have made of a fellow EU member if one had decided to send asylum seekers on a one way ticket to Rwanda?
Hunt is there to stabilise the Treasury not take over the government. It was Boris who won the last general election not him
How are the gee gees looking today.
There is no evidence of widespread support across the country for the kind of right-wing extremism touted by Farage, and embraced to a significant degree by Truss's government recently. Polls on specific issues are pretty clear about that.
If the Tories fudged a coronation of Hunt, many (but still a minority) of the c.170k current Tory members would no doubt leave and support Farage but others would return to the fold and the bulk of 2019 Tory voters would not switch to RefUK.
Brexit is no longer an issue for most people. Obviously if Hunt campaigned on a Rejoin policy that would be different, but that's never happening.
(Edit to add, probably only a few countries in the world can do it, because the only way to make the model work is to credibly convince investors that your government will bail out the the guarantee agency.)
It was everything else, which is bit by bit getting reversed.
Even if you shrink her job to the bare minimum (PMQs? HMK? Chair Cabinet?) and delegate everything else, that's going to be a struggle, I think.
In 2019 Farage already proved he could beat the Tories, as his Brexit Party led May's Tories in a number of spring polls and trounced the Tories in the European elections before Boris replaced May and regained voters lost to Farage
@PhillipsPOBrien
·
1h
Seems to be reports coming in (Russian sources) that the Ukrainians are trying to move forward again in Kherson. Ukraine security has been so good, Russian sources are probably all we will have for a while—if indeed it’s even happening
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien
It’s TINA time for the Tories. Truss’ leadership is holed below the waterline, they need a stabilising influence and look, a grown up has just shown up.
Hunt as PM, Rishi back in Treasury, Penny at FCO, Gove at Home would be a good start.
And then I think they should do something left-field: I think they should promise a GE in 12 months’ time. Key aim to get through the winter and COL, hope those problems have started to recede by next year, then have a giant listening conversation campaign kick started in the spring - blitz on the red wall etc, etc, to build the 2023 manifesto.
By pre-announcing a GE you are putting Labour plans under the microscope for 12 months and more chance of Starmer making a clanger.
It is a gamble but if it pays off you might squeeze a modest defeat out of that.
You can now lay him @6.2
That's a reasonable profit there.
Amongst those voters who voted for Boris in 2019 there is plenty of support for Farage style low tax and slash immigration and anti woke rightwing populism. Indeed probably on a forced choice most 2019 Conservative voters would vote for a Farage led party over a Hunt led party.
For goodness sake in France and Italy Le Pen and Meloni already now lead the right, the main centre right partys have collapsed. In the US Trump still is the main figure of the right.
In Canada and Australia too populist right leaders lead the main opposition
'Just as markets know how to handle junk bonds, Tory MPs have form in ditching their own junk blondes who have lost their value..'
(Thatcher, Johnson...Truss?)
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/its-only-a-matter-of-time-before-liz-truss-is-sacked-as-brutally-as-she-sacked-her-chancellor-1913047
1:10 Newton Abbott
Gin Coco
3.24 Stratford
Hermes Allen
3.30 Newton Abbott
Ede'iffs Elton Long Shot of the week, won’t tire and likes the ground
4.05 Newton Abbott
Kissesforkatie
Good Luck PB 🐎 punters 🙋♀️
But then did neither in the rush to offer tax cuts all round.
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/opinion/2019/08/16/migration-eu-rwanda-libya-plan
2021: "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently announced that Denmark's goal is to receive 'zero' asylum seekers. Achievement of this goal seems to be rapidly approaching. Last year only 1,547 people asked for asylum in Denmark"
https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/news/denmark-lowest-number-asylum-seekers-ever_en
2021: Amnesty says Danish plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda are "unconscionable"
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/05/denmark-plans-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda-unconscionable-and-potentially-unlawful/
Luckily (?) she was strapped to Kwasi’s back and he took the brunt of the impact. How much of a brunt is yet to be seen.
Even now I would consider Mordaunt is a poor choice of replacement for leader/PM; things can always get worse. The scuttlebutt from civil servants and on-the-record verdict from politicians alike is simply a little too damning, regarding her attitude to her Ministerial duties, the truth and her own principles. In essence, it would simply return the Premiership to all the flaws of Boris Johnson with none of the positive qualities. Stephen Pollard's recent article in The Critic sums it up well (https://thecritic.co.uk/less-is-mordaunt/). I think she would be an excellent campaigner and a poor administrator.
The saving grace may be that Mordaunt may be aware enough of her own shortcomings to have policy agenda and party less centred on her, and there were hints of this strategy in her leadership campaign. But this is only possible to a certain extent.
This is not to say that she is not an extremely able communicator. Perhaps the Conservatives should make her Chair of the Party.
By all means replace Truss as soon as you can - now would be nice - but choose wisely!
Get Brexit Done.
"There's still one in the room, PM."
Now I think she needs to be a prominent member of the government but she shouldn’t be the chairman. Give her FCO as I suggested above - allows her to do her stand in front of the flag Jam and Jerusalem stuff without the danger of putting her in charge of policy that she could mess up.
In the past six years, the European Union, weary of the financial and political costs of receiving migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, has created a shadow immigration system that stops them before they reach Europe.
It has equipped and trained the Libyan Coast Guard, a quasi-military organization linked to militias in the country, to patrol the Mediterranean, sabotaging humanitarian rescue operations and capturing migrants. The migrants are then detained indefinitely in a network of profit-making prisons run by the militias. In September of this year, around six thousand migrants were being held, many of them in Al Mabani.
International aid agencies have documented an array of abuses: detainees tortured with electric shocks, children raped by guards, families extorted for ransom, men and women sold into forced labor.
“The E.U. did something they carefully considered and planned for many years,” Salah Marghani, Libya’s Minister of Justice from 2012 to 2014, told me. “Create a hellhole in Libya, with the idea of deterring people from heading to Europe.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
The question now is how long.
Of course the main reason behind it is a cynical attempt to eke out a recovery, but I think a lot of the clamour for a GE would be dented if one was pre—announced, just not taking place immediately.
It has worked for a couple of decades, but I doubt it will work any more. Farage is an odious tosser and your lot have shown what happens when odious tossers are given the job.
Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/10/russia-is-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine
Suddenly he's the obvious choice to bring about Party unity and steward the economy?
If this is so, why did nobody spot it earlier?
Early March is I think possible, but then we're going to be excited over the coronation so we move onto about this time next year.
Heaven alone knows what damage Ms Truss and her "team "will have done by then!
🤭
If the Tory Party is to survive it needs to have a period where everyone mucks in and does what they can to avoid a cataclysm of an election whenever that election comes. If that means a leader the right might not like, then they need to be grown up about it and accept that needs must. If they want to have a big battle/conversation on the future of policy or the direction of the party they can have that when the party goes into opposition.
Publicity wise she did benefit from following the utterly useless Liam Fox.
I’m lost in the Wild West. And the cowboy steaks are fine. I couldn’t be calmer
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/video/suella-braverman-says-she-obsessed-085614429.html
Suella Braverman's dream (everyone else's has her on the plane)
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581217402737393664?s=20&t=Ihsbm9yw8hyEkBthL_rR6g
But it's not just that the Tories are down, Labour are up. It'd take a lot to blow it from here, when the Tories have embedded a view of incompetence based on the last few weeks.
https://twitter.com/fizzforbrexit/status/1581222832880566272?s=20&t=Ihsbm9yw8hyEkBthL_rR6g
If you really want to ensure a Canadian 1993 style extinction on the Tories, imposing a leader most Conservative members and voters don't want is the way to do it
There is no market for extremism in this country as Mr Corbyn comprehensively demonstrated in 2019.
But I actually agree people are getting carried away. He and Truss are both taking a gamble.
She's sacrificed Kwarteng and installed Hunt in a last ditch effort to save her skin. It should at least buy her time with the moderate wing.
He has taken on a near impossible job under a leader rolling from crisis to crisis. He may have done so as it is his last chance at senior office, not because he is now a shoo-in for PM.
Perhaps the industrial revolution allowed us two centuries of strong growth and we'll now return to the historical norm of 0.5% growth per year at the most.
Note quality of life improvements can happen separately from economic growth.