Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

These YouGov findings are terrible for Truss – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageThese YouGov findings are terrible for Truss – politicalbetting.com

By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability. That just 11% say she is likeable is awful for the PM and it is hard to see what she does about it. The perception spills over onto the trustworthy rating and whether they are seen as competent.

Read the full story here

«13456711

Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    PMQs today!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    edited October 12

    PMQs today!

    If Truss somehow gets out of this mess she'll deserve to win the next election. Unlikely.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    Andy_JS said:

    PMQs today!

    If Truss somehow gets out of this mess she'll deserve to win the next election. Unlikely.
    Is there any way the stars can align for Liz Truss? If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops, which might be enough to convince the OBR that Kwasi can afford (some of) his tax cuts without needing to decimate departmental spending. Trouble is, a lot of people will still have a pretty wretched Christmas and winter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    edited October 12
    Third…Rate, like Lolz Truss could only dream of….

    However I am not convinced that Rishi would have been the magic bullet. Yes, he wouldn’t have got into quite such a fine mess in so staggeringly short a period, but Rishi was tainted both by close association with Johnson and, in the eyes of many of the members and MPs, also tainted with Johnson’s downfall. I feel that in a different way Rishi’s premiership would also have got into deep trouble.

    They were probably lined up for defeat at the next election anyway - the long period in office, the overhang of Brexit and Johnson’s dishonesty, and the economic storm brewing, are too much for anyone to have overcome. But someone relatively fresh like Mordaunt might at least have limited the damage and allowed the Tories to move into thinking long and hard about what they are for.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    "By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability."

    Not by far. Her numbers on competence and trustworthiness are almost identical to those for likeability.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    These YouGov findings are terrible for the Union.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    edited October 12
    I don't like Truss and her evil brand of politics and gagaland economics but you can't start pinning all of the tory misfortune on her. That's pure revisionism.

    The seeds of this debacle were sown a long way back. I would argue with Brexit, which has clearly ruined Britain, but even if we lay that aside, a series of disastrous external and internal misfortunes have brought the tory downfall. From Covid, to Ukraine, from Cummings to sleaze, from cost of living to the death of the Queen ... this has been a period of our history that everyone will want to forget.

    Truss is merely the fall woman: the culmination of calamity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Chris said:

    "By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability."

    Not by far. Her numbers on competence and trustworthiness are almost identical to those for likeability.

    Agreed.

    Likeability in a politician is a nice-to-have, but far from essential. Competence is absolutely essential.

    Sturgeon = competent = 11 election victories in a row, so far.

    Drakeford = competent = over 50% in the polls, despite the hegemony of his party being seemingly forever.

    Truss = incompetent = fatally holed her own ship within 1 month of taking office, and may go down in history as a worse PM than The Oaf, May, Brown and Cameron, which is one hell of an achievement.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    p.s. I have a few tory friends and they all dislike her, some pretty vehemently.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 12
    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 12
    Whisper it quietly….

    Nobody is buying our long-term debt except for the BoE.

    We’re funding our deficit by debasing the currency. We’re not even pretending any more.

    Perhaps those who have taken out large mortgages aren’t so foolish, after all.

    QE(forev)eeeeeeeeeer!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    ping said:

    Whisper it quietly….

    Nobody is buying our long-term debt except for the BoE.

    We’re funding our deficit by debasing the currency.

    Perhaps those who have taken out large mortgages aren’t so foolish, after all.

    QE(forev)eeeeeeeeeer!

    It's difficult to 'like' your post because it's so bleak. But you are absolutely right.

    This is grim. We're in trouble.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    'tis but a flesh wound!

    Good morning, everyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Heathener said:

    I don't like Truss and her evil brand of politics and gagaland economics but you can't start pinning all of the tory misfortune on her. That's pure revisionism.

    The seeds of this debacle were sown a long way back. I would argue with Brexit, which has clearly ruined Britain, but even if we lay that aside, a series of disastrous external and internal misfortunes have brought the tory downfall. From Covid, to Ukraine, from Cummings to sleaze, from cost of living to the death of the Queen ... this has been a period of our history that everyone will want to forget.

    Truss is merely the fall woman: the culmination of calamity.

    No, she’s not “merely the fall woman”. You’re right that she has inherited poisoned ground. But by her crass and naive behaviour she has instantly made herself an exemplar of everything bad that has gone before, when she could have approached the job so differently.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    ping said:

    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.

    What on Earth is Bailey playing at here? His job is to calmly reassure markets, not to make them even more jumpy on a daily basis.

    He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 12
    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?
  • Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.

    What on Earth is Bailey playing at here? His job is to calmly reassure markets, not to make them even more jumpy on a daily basis.

    He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
    Nah.


  • Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr
  • ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Yes, Winston Churchill in circa 1954, to be fair to Winston, he had several strokes and 80.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,220
    Evil?

    A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration. Liz is incompetent and has an inflated opinion of her own ability, but that's not unusual in politicians and journalists.

    She's not evil, she's a very naughty girl.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    edited October 12
    Just 16 days ago an opinion poll put the Labour lead at 4%. Kantar, 26th Sep: Lab 39%, Con 35%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.

    What on Earth is Bailey playing at here? His job is to calmly reassure markets, not to make them even more jumpy on a daily basis.

    He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
    "Bailey bombs"

    https://on.ft.com/3RTqmBM

    An amusing take on the BoE governor's latest helpful intervention.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 12
    CD13 said:

    Evil?

    A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration. Liz is incompetent and has an inflated opinion of her own ability, but that's not unusual in politicians and journalists.

    She's not evil, she's a very naughty girl.

    Hmm.

    I generally would only use that word for someone who inflicts direct, deliberate, and severe harm on other humans.

    Bonus points if they get kicks out of it.

    I think there are better words to describe liz and her band of fellow idiots.

    However, I don’t have a problem with describing her ideology as “evil”

    In my experience, it’s a good lesson for life.

    Use these kind of emotive, absolutist words to describe ideas or behaviours. Not actual people. Separate the person from the idea/behaviour.

    Gets you into far fewer unwinnable fights. More likely to win people over to your side of an argument, too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    New: GDP contracted in August by -0.3%
  • BoE isnt going to let pension funds blow up. They cd do another time-limited, financial stability operation; they cd delay start of asset sales etc. But they will do it reluctantly & late, let yields rise & sterling fall to keep pressure on Govt on fiscal policy, which is working



    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1580075433931874304
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    CD13 said:

    Evil?

    A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration. Liz is incompetent and has an inflated opinion of her own ability, but that's not unusual in politicians and journalists.

    She's not evil, she's a very naughty girl.

    "A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration."

    I disagree. There are times when its usage can be perfectly apt: for instance I believe it's fine for Russia's actions in Ukraine to be called 'evil'. I'd even extend that to Putin himself.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,927
    edited October 12
    Has anyone noted that the Coronation is two days after the Local Elections - or actually the day after the Local Election results come out.

    If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.

    (Assuming Truss is still leader!)
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    FPT;

    “The government may may have to step in to rescue stricken pension funds itself. Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury official, said on Twitter: “It is not the Bank of England’s job to bail out pension funds. But history suggests it’s a job the government will take on and it will be working on a scheme right now. Sadly, this can only add to the state’s liabilities and to upward pressure on interest rates.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/bailey-puts-boe-credibility-on-line-with-vow-to-end-gilt-buying
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807

    BoE isnt going to let pension funds blow up. They cd do another time-limited, financial stability operation; they cd delay start of asset sales etc. But they will do it reluctantly & late, let yields rise & sterling fall to keep pressure on Govt on fiscal policy, which is working



    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1580075433931874304

    Yes, that the BoE has both to keep a lid on the economic crisis and to make the best of the crisis to push the government back towards a more responsible policy is perhaps under-appreciated.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 12
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone noted that the Coronation is two days after the Local Elections - or actually the day after the Local Election results come out.

    If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.

    Yes.

    A former councillor has pointed out a lot of venues which are used for counts could be used for local coronation events, which could be problematic, especially for those places which start counts on Friday morning.

    Edit - the Jubilee delayed Boris Johnson's VONC, not stopped it outright, I suspect the same will apply to Liz, if she lasts that long.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    FPT;

    “The government may may have to step in to rescue stricken pension funds itself. Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury official, said on Twitter: “It is not the Bank of England’s job to bail out pension funds. But history suggests it’s a job the government will take on and it will be working on a scheme right now. Sadly, this can only add to the state’s liabilities and to upward pressure on interest rates.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/bailey-puts-boe-credibility-on-line-with-vow-to-end-gilt-buying
    The young and the yet-to-be-born, who can look forward to shit pensions, will also have to stump up to bail out the gold plated pensions of (what’s left of) the Tory client vote.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
  • The boss of Santander UK says the bank is putting aside more money for potential defaults linked to the cost of living crisis after seeing a pickup in customers falling behind on mortgage and loan payments.

    Mike Regnier told the Guardian that he was keeping a close eye on the “strain and pressure” facing customers as a result of the cost of living crisis, which has made it harder for some households to keep up with rising food and energy bills and financial commitments such as home loans.

    That strain has been compounded by rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, which has resulted in higher monthly payments for borrowers coming off of fixed-rate mortgages.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/11/rise-in-uk-borrowers-falling-behind-on-mortgage-payments-says-santander
  • Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    As has been noted by others, the increase in gilt yields will in the most part dramatically improve the solvency of DB pensions by reducing their liabilities faster than their assets. There is a potential liquidity issue in the short term as they unwind margined repos of Uk govt bonds, which has in turn been feeding a doom cycle in that asset class.

    The reason why “no one is buying long dates gilts apart from the BoE” is simple, why would you until you are certain that the deleveraging within the funds has completed, especially when the BoE Governor is giving such jumpy mixed signals on his intent? Once this short phase is over, gilts are beginning to look a pretty attractive store of wealth if you ask me.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    The other problem with the poor authority of Truss is that, despite being 'loyalists' her cabinet are not very good at collective responsibility. Braverman is one of the worst offenders in this respect, she keeps going on the record to contradict government policy to please her own base of supporters, IE over the ECHR.
  • Thoughts and prayers for me.

    Today I'm working on updating our stress tests at work to see how the business could cope with economic turbulence..

    I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    We have two years of this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    The pound in your pocket...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 12
    Andy_JS said:

    Just 16 days ago an opinion poll put the Labour lead at 4%. Kantar, 26th Sep: Lab 39%, Con 35%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Outlier.

    a person, thing, or fact that is very different from other people, things, or facts, so that it cannot be used to draw general conclusions:

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/outlier
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    edited October 12
    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
    The first part of the story is that Johnson effectively made her a contender by giving her FS, not because of her ability but for her ideology (such as it is), loyalty, and specifically because she didn’t have enough talent or independence to become a threat. She stuck by him when many others had resigned. If the boss appoints only numpties as his assistants and you can’t recruit from outside, then the next boss will be a numpty.

    The second part of the story is that political elections often deliver the prize to “the one who isn’t”, in this case the members’ desire to elect someone who didn’t have their fingerprints on the dagger that killed the clown.

    The MPs are really the ones to blame - they could so easily have put Mordaunt up against Sunak. Mordaunt carried different risks but she does at least seem to have the ability to ‘do human’ and the sense to realise that elections are won from the centre. Her pitch was entirely based around the skills needed to lead, and she specifically recognised with her slogan that it’s about the team not the boss - zeroing in precisely on the character flaw that has so quickly sunk Truss, who has been close to the clown for long enough to learn the wrong lessons and pick up his bad habits,
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited October 12
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone noted that the Coronation is two days after the Local Elections - or actually the day after the Local Election results come out.

    If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.

    (Assuming Truss is still leader!)

    Good way to bury the terrible results they have incoming
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
    Braverman seems to at least have her political antennae switched on. We are so far through the looking glass.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Thr local elections exclude London importantly for the Coronation potential clashes
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
    The simple truth is that the UK needs a trade deal with India a whole lot more than India needs a trade deal with the UK. It’s a familiar story.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Braverman is quite right on one level. She is saying that there are problems with Indians overstaying visas and a deal to resolve this issue with the Indian Government signed last year isn't working. Also that people who voted for Brexit didn't want this. Hard to disagree with any of that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Jonathan said:

    We have two years of this.

    The Starmer years are going to be so boring in comparison.

    How soon before Con are polling single figures?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Has anyone noted that the Coronation is two days after the Local Elections - or actually the day after the Local Election results come out.

    If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.

    (Assuming Truss is still leader!)

    Good way to bury the terrible results they have incoming
    Or a double reason to celebrate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    darkage said:

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Braverman is quite right on one level. She is saying that there are problems with Indians overstaying visas and a deal to resolve this issue with the Indian Government signed last year isn't working. Also that people who voted for Brexit didn't want this. Hard to disagree with any of that.
    If only there were some way in which we could make it easier for all those keen young Europeans to come over and pick up these jobs?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Stig Abel on #TimesRadio asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if the government’s “Operation Rolling Thunder” has now become “Operation Shitstorm”

    Mogg: “I haven’t heard either of those terms


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1580083152692793344
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 12

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
    The simple truth is that the UK needs a trade deal with India a whole lot more than India needs a trade deal with the UK. It’s a familiar story.

    It makes rejoining the single market inevitable to some of my depressed Brexiteer friends.

    Three cheers for Liz.

    Hip hip hooray.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Liz Truss qualified as an ACMA whilst working for Shell and then rose rapidly to become economics director of Cable & Wireless. Can't count?

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
    The first part of the story is that Johnson effectively made her a contender by giving her FS, not because of her ability but for her ideology (such as it is), loyalty, and specifically because she didn’t have enough talent or independence to become a threat. She stuck by him when many others had resigned. If the boss appoints only numpties as his assistants and you can’t recruit from outside, then the next boss will be a numpty.

    The second part of the story is that political elections often deliver the prize to “the one who isn’t”, in this case the members’ desire to elect someone who didn’t have their fingerprints on the dagger that killed the clown.

    The MPs are really the ones to blame - they could so easily have put Mordaunt up against Sunak. Mordaunt carried different risks but she does at least seem to have the ability to ‘do human’ and the sense to realise that elections are won from the centre. Her pitch was entirely based around the skills needed to lead, and she specifically recognised with her slogan that it’s about the team not the boss - zeroing in precisely on the character flaw that has so quickly sunk Truss, who has been close to the clown for long enough to learn the wrong lessons and pick up his bad habits,
    Thats a pretty good analysis of the situation. Explains the 'mystery' of how Liz Truss got the top job.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Liz Truss qualified as an ACMA whilst working for Shell and then rose rapidly to become economics director of Cable & Wireless. Can't count?

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
    Won't count, than.

  • Foxy said:

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
    Braverman seems to at least have her political antennae switched on. We are so far through the looking glass.
    They have a wee bit of a problem. Any deal they do with someone like India opens the door to migration. So many of the people who voted for Brexit had at least a parochial bigotry approach when it comes to outsiders who aren't exactly like them. So a flood from the subcontinent is not what they expected when they voted to send the forrin home to stop taking their jobs and their benefits.

    However, we *need* migrants. We're a nation of migrants, and there are a whole underclass of jobs that right-thinking Brits don't want to do. When tosspot government ministers say "just get a better job" to poor people, who do they imagine will do these essential jobs they leave behind? That's right - MIGRANTS.

    Fun times ahead.
  • IanB2 said:

    Third…Rate, like Lolz Truss could only dream of….

    However I am not convinced that Rishi would have been the magic bullet. Yes, he wouldn’t have got into quite such a fine mess in so staggeringly short a period, but Rishi was tainted both by close association with Johnson and, in the eyes of many of the members and MPs, also tainted with Johnson’s downfall. I feel that in a different way Rishi’s premiership would also have got into deep trouble.

    They were probably lined up for defeat at the next election anyway - the long period in office, the overhang of Brexit and Johnson’s dishonesty, and the economic storm brewing, are too much for anyone to have overcome. But someone relatively fresh like Mordaunt might at least have limited the damage and allowed the Tories to move into thinking long and hard about what they are for.

    Rishi must be thinking the leadership contest was a great one to lose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    DavidL said:

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd.

    No she doesn't. That's the problem. She can't get them to vote for her batshit schemes.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    I dont agree that Truss is indecisive. She decided on a cabinet, an energy bill support policy, an economic direction. I just struggle to identify any decision that looks particularly good. And several that seem shockingly bad. So I'd give her a pass on decisiveness. But an epic fail on competence and likeability. And she is weak so some of her bad decisions have already been reversed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    I dont agree that Truss is indecisive. She decided on a cabinet, an energy bill support policy, an economic direction. I just struggle to identify any decision that looks particularly good. And several that seem shockingly bad. So I'd give her a pass on decisiveness. But an epic fail on competence and likeability. And she is weak so some of her bad decisions have already been reversed.

    A better word might be impulsive.

    She was absolutely determined to do all the things, right up to the point when she wasn't...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Has anyone noted that the Coronation is two days after the Local Elections - or actually the day after the Local Election results come out.

    If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.

    (Assuming Truss is still leader!)

    Good way to bury the terrible results they have incoming
    Not really cos it's not news.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    IanB2 said:

    Third…Rate, like Lolz Truss could only dream of….

    However I am not convinced that Rishi would have been the magic bullet. Yes, he wouldn’t have got into quite such a fine mess in so staggeringly short a period, but Rishi was tainted both by close association with Johnson and, in the eyes of many of the members and MPs, also tainted with Johnson’s downfall. I feel that in a different way Rishi’s premiership would also have got into deep trouble.

    They were probably lined up for defeat at the next election anyway - the long period in office, the overhang of Brexit and Johnson’s dishonesty, and the economic storm brewing, are too much for anyone to have overcome. But someone relatively fresh like Mordaunt might at least have limited the damage and allowed the Tories to move into thinking long and hard about what they are for.

    Rishi must be thinking the leadership contest was a great one to lose.
    They never are. Chances don't often return.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    I don't like Truss and her evil brand of politics and gagaland economics but you can't start pinning all of the tory misfortune on her. That's pure revisionism.

    The seeds of this debacle were sown a long way back. I would argue with Brexit, which has clearly ruined Britain, but even if we lay that aside, a series of disastrous external and internal misfortunes have brought the tory downfall. From Covid, to Ukraine, from Cummings to sleaze, from cost of living to the death of the Queen ... this has been a period of our history that everyone will want to forget.

    Truss is merely the fall woman: the culmination of calamity.

    Evil?

    Disagree with her, sure. Accuse her of stupidity or arrogance, fine.

    But "evil" is a strong word that I think should be saved for those leaders who invade neighboring countries, and cause the needless deaths of tens of thousands.
    Agreed. I think NickP said on here yesterday that she was fine personally, but a bit out of her depth,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.

    What on Earth is Bailey playing at here? His job is to calmly reassure markets, not to make them even more jumpy on a daily basis.

    He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
    Possibly it’s because, like rather too many people currently in public service, he was appointed for knowing the right people rather than for possessing a functioning brain?

    Here we could add in Case, Spielman, Acland-Hood, that period officer in Dundee, the current Chancellor…
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    So far this morning there doesn't seem to have been missile attacks on Ukraine. If Russia did have enough munitions you would expect it every day. Fingers crossed they don't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Liz Truss qualified as an ACMA whilst working for Shell and then rose rapidly to become economics director of Cable & Wireless. Can't count?

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
    Won’t count. It’s beneath her now. She’s the messiah.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Jonathan said:

    We have two years of this.

    No-one keeps a mouldy lettuce for two years…
  • Andy_JS said:

    Just 16 days ago an opinion poll put the Labour lead at 4%. Kantar, 26th Sep: Lab 39%, Con 35%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    That as an extraordinary 'outlier' even at the time. Maybe 'wrong' would be a better word.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Liz Truss qualified as an ACMA whilst working for Shell and then rose rapidly to become economics director of Cable & Wireless. Can't count?

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
    Majority of 70 provided she does nothing Mikey Gove disapproves of.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766
    "The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar after Andrew Bailey warned the Bank of England would not extend its emergency intervention in financial markets beyond this week, after the turmoil sparked by the government’s mini-budget." The Guardian: https://tinyurl.com/2zjzvrfe

    What have Liz and Kwasi done that has so upset the Bank of England that they are prepared to allow the turmoil to continue unchecked?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    The government doesn't understand modern business, as it doesn't understand the markets. @helentbiz absolutely nailing the concerns that serious damage is going to be done in the name of growth.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1580081627925204992/photo/1

    Are there any Truss / Kwarteng policies so far announced for which there is widespread support either in Parliament, including their own party, or among the people affected?

    Hard to think of many. And thus, their survival must be in serious doubt.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Truss forced to delay her “blitz of pro-growth reforms” because Rees-Mogg’s suggestions were all too mad and they “couldn’t find alternatives that would plausibly boost growth”. The programme has now been renamed ‘Operation Shitstorm’ by many.
    What utter utter arseholes.


    (Times) https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1580084472472809472/photo/1
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 12
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd.

    No she doesn't. That's the problem. She can't get them to vote for her batshit schemes.
    Yes.

    I assumed this a fairly sophisticated forum and David is one of the sharpest posters. I was referring to counting in the political sense.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    Andy_JS said:

    PMQs today!

    If Truss somehow gets out of this mess she'll deserve to win the next election. Unlikely.
    Is there any way the stars can align for Liz Truss? If gas falls sufficiently, the cost of the energy cap freeze drops, which might be enough to convince the OBR that Kwasi can afford (some of) his tax cuts without needing to decimate departmental spending. Trouble is, a lot of people will still have a pretty wretched Christmas and winter.
    I think the narrative is set

    Any positive news is *despite* her instead of because

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Brexit regulation problems putting consumers at risk, parliamentary committee warns https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-regulations-consumers-risk-pac-truss-b2200584.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    As has been noted by others, the increase in gilt yields will in the most part dramatically improve the solvency of DB pensions by reducing their liabilities faster than their assets. There is a potential liquidity issue in the short term as they unwind margined repos of Uk govt bonds, which has in turn been feeding a doom cycle in that asset class.

    The reason why “no one is buying long dates gilts apart from the BoE” is simple, why would you until you are certain that the deleveraging within the funds has completed, especially when the BoE Governor is giving such jumpy mixed signals on his intent? Once this short phase is over, gilts are beginning to look a pretty attractive store of wealth if you ask me.
    And corporate bonds even more so. I would not be too surprised if bonds outperform equities over the next few years.

    But the fundamental problems are not Truss's fault. We have been living in an ever more delusional state for 30 years now, assuming that the world owes us a living and that we are somehow entitled to a good standard of living and excellent public services whether we produce enough to pay for them or not. We are seriously close to the end of the road with much of our foreign investment cashed in and many of our more productive assets already sold.

    What we really need to do, rather than trying to dash for growth with unfunded tax cuts, is rebalance our economy by increasing savings and investment, massively reducing consumption, driving productivity and taking our chronic balance of payments seriously. This country had a trade deficit of 8% of GDP in the first half and we are trying to cut taxes? No wonder our gilts are looking unattractive.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
    Foreign Secretary may be a great office of state but it's hardly difficult. What tough decisions do you have to make?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    ping said:

    Whisper it quietly….

    Nobody is buying our long-term debt except for the BoE.

    We’re funding our deficit by debasing the currency. We’re not even pretending any more.

    Perhaps those who have taken out large mortgages aren’t so foolish, after all.

    QE(forev)eeeeeeeeeer!

    The British economy must develop urgently into one where we make or do things that people want and are willing to pay for.

    However, this prognosis is unnecessarily gloomy. Others are prepared to buy our debt - but not when the BOE is determined to flog off £80bn of it in a year. It's a crazy, irresponsible, hairpin turn of a policy. Fortunately for the bank (and unfortunately for everyone else) the public doesn't really understand such matters, and assumes automatically that the bank is acting out of necessity in the interests of the British economy. Neither is true.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    And this from the Daily Telegraph cartoonist…. https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1580087512277479424/photo/1


  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766

    Foxy said:

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    Just what the Red Wall voted for.
    Braverman seems to at least have her political antennae switched on. We are so far through the looking glass.
    They have a wee bit of a problem. Any deal they do with someone like India opens the door to migration. So many of the people who voted for Brexit had at least a parochial bigotry approach when it comes to outsiders who aren't exactly like them. So a flood from the subcontinent is not what they expected when they voted to send the forrin home to stop taking their jobs and their benefits.

    However, we *need* migrants. We're a nation of migrants, and there are a whole underclass of jobs that right-thinking Brits don't want to do. When tosspot government ministers say "just get a better job" to poor people, who do they imagine will do these essential jobs they leave behind? That's right - MIGRANTS.

    Fun times ahead.
    "and there are a whole underclass of jobs that right-thinking Brits don't want to do.' Are doctors part of the underclass?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    edited October 12
    Thankfully, another relatively quiet night in Ukraine.

    These new Iranian-made drones don’t seem to be particularly effective at getting to their targets, air defences have taken out nine of them overnight in the South of Ukraine near Kherson and Mykolaiv.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
    Foreign Secretary may be a great office of state but it's hardly difficult. What tough decisions do you have to make?
    To return from holiday when Kabul falls.

    But yes, ever since Blair the PM edges you out as soon as it gets interesting, had to think about who his FS actually was - even Hoon at armed forces got more airtime.
  • I dont agree that Truss is indecisive. She decided on a cabinet, an energy bill support policy, an economic direction. I just struggle to identify any decision that looks particularly good. And several that seem shockingly bad. So I'd give her a pass on decisiveness. But an epic fail on competence and likeability. And she is weak so some of her bad decisions have already been reversed.

    She is indecisive and weak because she made so many stupid decisions and has been forced to reverse them. Remember that every single one of these was billed as essential, that they had no other choice. That anyone opposed was part of the "anti-growth coalition" or even dancing to Putin's tune.

    The latest one - she is imposing a windfall tax on the excess profits being made by energy companies. All the way through her leadership she said "no handouts, no windfall tax". Then announced handouts *to the energy companies* paid for by consumers. Now is taking off them any profits over a level they are setting - a windfall tax.

    She is in office, but not in power.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    Truss and Kwarteng have almost no power. Their authority is shot. Primus inter pares and no more. As I’ve posted on here a few times over the past weeks - and has now been picked up by the sharper journos - She can’t count. A fatal flaw in any politician.

    She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.

    Has there ever been a weaker PM?

    Liz Truss qualified as an ACMA whilst working for Shell and then rose rapidly to become economics director of Cable & Wireless. Can't count?

    If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
    Majority of 70 provided she does nothing Mikey Gove disapproves of.
    We can only hope that is true. Michael Gove has far more sense than most of the cabinet put together (not a high bar, admittedly). Truss really should have kept him on the inside.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    As has been noted by others, the increase in gilt yields will in the most part dramatically improve the solvency of DB pensions by reducing their liabilities faster than their assets. There is a potential liquidity issue in the short term as they unwind margined repos of Uk govt bonds, which has in turn been feeding a doom cycle in that asset class.

    The reason why “no one is buying long dates gilts apart from the BoE” is simple, why would you until you are certain that the deleveraging within the funds has completed, especially when the BoE Governor is giving such jumpy mixed signals on his intent? Once this short phase is over, gilts are beginning to look a pretty attractive store of wealth if you ask me.
    If the fund needed to meet a DB pension commitment has fallen due to the rise in gilt yields, does that mean the 25pc tax free bit has also fallen in proportion? Even if the regular pension paid out stays the same?
  • Icarus said:

    "The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar after Andrew Bailey warned the Bank of England would not extend its emergency intervention in financial markets beyond this week, after the turmoil sparked by the government’s mini-budget." The Guardian: https://tinyurl.com/2zjzvrfe

    What have Liz and Kwasi done that has so upset the Bank of England that they are prepared to allow the turmoil to continue unchecked?

    Whilst the BofE is independent, it does not operate in a vacuum. What KT say shapes their ability to act. Whilst I agree that the bank rather sadly has poor leadership right now, they aren't acting alone. They are constrained by everything the government says and does, and those things are reckless and stupid.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    ping said:

    CD13 said:

    Evil?

    A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration. Liz is incompetent and has an inflated opinion of her own ability, but that's not unusual in politicians and journalists.

    She's not evil, she's a very naughty girl.

    Hmm.

    I generally would only use that word for someone who inflicts direct, deliberate, and severe harm on other humans.

    Bonus points if they get kicks out of it.

    I think there are better words to describe liz and her band of fellow idiots.

    However, I don’t have a problem with describing her ideology as “evil”

    In my experience, it’s a good lesson for life.

    Use these kind of emotive, absolutist words to describe ideas or behaviours. Not actual people. Separate the person from the idea/behaviour.

    Gets you into far fewer unwinnable fights. More likely to win people over to your side of an argument, too.
    Disagreeing with you on whether government spending and tax levels should be plus/minus 200 basis points is evil?

    I think you need your moral compass checked out

  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    We have two years of this.

    The Starmer years are going to be so boring in comparison.

    How soon before Con are polling single figures?
    I believe TSE has struck a bet that they will record under 15% at some point.

    I believe he will collect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    .
    Sandpit said:

    ping said:

    “Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases

    Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”

    https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814

    Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.

    He’s not credible.

    What on Earth is Bailey playing at here? His job is to calmly reassure markets, not to make them even more jumpy on a daily basis.

    He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
    I discussed this last night.
    The point about the pension fund intervention was not to intervene to support any particular level of gilt prices, but to act as a buyer of last resort when liquidity in the market disappeared.
    Bailey put the pension funds with liquidity problems on notice to unwind their overleveraged positions by the end of this week. That's not unreasonable; the Bank's role is to protect the system, not individual funds.

    The fact that he's stated the Bank will continue to act as a buyer of last resort after this week isn't a surprise either. It's a fundamental role of the bank.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: "Our pension funds aren't at risk."

    Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553

    As has been noted by others, the increase in gilt yields will in the most part dramatically improve the solvency of DB pensions by reducing their liabilities faster than their assets. There is a potential liquidity issue in the short term as they unwind margined repos of Uk govt bonds, which has in turn been feeding a doom cycle in that asset class.

    The reason why “no one is buying long dates gilts apart from the BoE” is simple, why would you until you are certain that the deleveraging within the funds has completed, especially when the BoE Governor is giving such jumpy mixed signals on his intent? Once this short phase is over, gilts are beginning to look a pretty attractive store of wealth if you ask me.
    If the fund needed to meet a DB pension commitment has fallen due to the rise in gilt yields, does that mean the 25pc tax free bit has also fallen in proportion? Even if the regular pension paid out stays the same?
    Yes. Your pension fund will be reduced but it will pay out more in income. Cashing in a chunk to get a tax free lump sum is marginally less attractive right now, the income stream is more valuable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Exclusive: I had a chat with the former chair of the Conservative Party, @SayeedaWarsi, who said PM Liz Truss "had to just carry on with the 2019 manifesto – or go to the electorate”.

    She “doesn’t have the mandate to do some of the things she’s doing”.

    https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-ex-tory-chair-baroness-warsi-says-pm-liz-truss-should-call-a-general-election
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    And you have the right to vote out a government that does that deal.

    That’s the way an independent democracy functions

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    IshmaelZ said:

    darkage said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    The situation for Truss looks utterly hopeless. She has lost the public and commands no confidence amongst her MPs, because of a series of misjudgements and unforced errors. This is a political party that looks like it is in a death spiral.

    Really it’s a similar hubris and sense of entitlement to that which was the undoing of Johnson.

    She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.

    Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
    The mystery is how someone so clearly abysmal at the top job got to where she is. She went through various cabinet posts and gave the impression of being a team player and a competent operator. But it is like she got to the top and, as you say, had no idea about how to do the job and just got drunk on the illusion of power.

    If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
    Foreign Secretary may be a great office of state but it's hardly difficult. What tough decisions do you have to make?
    To return from holiday when Kabul falls.

    But yes, ever since Blair the PM edges you out as soon as it gets interesting, had to think about who his FS actually was - even Hoon at armed forces got more airtime.
    Thinking back, she did get humiliated by Lavrov at one point. But I suppose she did just mostly use the role as a platform for slightly cringeworthy instagram shoots.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.

    She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”

    The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.

    A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr

    Looking at the detail in that story, it seems that my kids lost their rights to live, work and study in 30 European countries, so that Indians under the age of 35 can have the right to live, work and study in the UK.

    And you have the right to vote out a government that does that deal.

    That’s the way an independent democracy functions

    The ELI5 job is already taken by Barty, thanks. Do you seriously think all harms are reversible?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    Angela Lansbury told a story about her daughter falling under the spell of a Hollywood deadbeat. He would pick the girl up from school and get her to steal money and food from her parents for him. Worried, Lansbury moved the entire family to Ireland. The guy was Charles Manson.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Moloknee/status/1579957784077955072
This discussion has been closed.