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These YouGov findings are terrible for Truss – politicalbetting.com
These YouGov findings are terrible for Truss – politicalbetting.com
By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability. That just 11% say she is likeable is awful for the PM and it is hard to see what she does about it. The perception spills over onto the trustworthy rating and whether they are seen as competent.
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However I am not convinced that Rishi would have been the magic bullet. Yes, he wouldn’t have got into quite such a fine mess in so staggeringly short a period, but Rishi was tainted both by close association with Johnson and, in the eyes of many of the members and MPs, also tainted with Johnson’s downfall. I feel that in a different way Rishi’s premiership would also have got into deep trouble.
They were probably lined up for defeat at the next election anyway - the long period in office, the overhang of Brexit and Johnson’s dishonesty, and the economic storm brewing, are too much for anyone to have overcome. But someone relatively fresh like Mordaunt might at least have limited the damage and allowed the Tories to move into thinking long and hard about what they are for.
Not by far. Her numbers on competence and trustworthiness are almost identical to those for likeability.
The seeds of this debacle were sown a long way back. I would argue with Brexit, which has clearly ruined Britain, but even if we lay that aside, a series of disastrous external and internal misfortunes have brought the tory downfall. From Covid, to Ukraine, from Cummings to sleaze, from cost of living to the death of the Queen ... this has been a period of our history that everyone will want to forget.
Truss is merely the fall woman: the culmination of calamity.
Likeability in a politician is a nice-to-have, but far from essential. Competence is absolutely essential.
Sturgeon = competent = 11 election victories in a row, so far.
Drakeford = competent = over 50% in the polls, despite the hegemony of his party being seemingly forever.
Truss = incompetent = fatally holed her own ship within 1 month of taking office, and may go down in history as a worse PM than The Oaf, May, Brown and Cameron, which is one hell of an achievement.
Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up, despite Bailey warning of ‘three days left’”
https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814
Bailey out before the end of the year, I recon.
He’s not credible.
Nobody is buying our long-term debt except for the BoE.
We’re funding our deficit by debasing the currency. We’re not even pretending any more.
Perhaps those who have taken out large mortgages aren’t so foolish, after all.
QE(forev)eeeeeeeeeer!
This is grim. We're in trouble.
Good morning, everyone.
She could have arrived in office recognising that she didn’t have an electoral mandate and had only thin support from her colleagues, and that her party was already unpopular, and so been gracious to those who didn’t support her, assembled a cabinet of all the talents (and factions), and made efforts to consult and involve her colleagues before departing from the previous government’s agenda (which largely reflected the manifesto). If she had new ideas that she wanted to try, like the different approach to tax, she should have taken the time to lay the political ground with colleagues and get her officials on board.
Instead she arrived with a “hey, I’m the new world king!” attitude and did the precise opposite of everything set out above. Now, too late I am sure, perhaps she is realising that there is a little more to politics than rewarding your friends and dishing out instructions.
Disagree with her, sure. Accuse her of stupidity or arrogance, fine.
But "evil" is a strong word that I think should be saved for those leaders who invade neighboring countries, and cause the needless deaths of tens of thousands.
He’s where everyone’s ire needs to be directed at the moment, his position is becoming rapidly untenable.
She’s now entirely at the mercy of her MPs, who want contradictory things.
Has there ever been a weaker PM?
Last week the home secretary said she had “concerns” about the trade deal because it would increase migration to the UK and Indians represented the largest group of visa overstayers.
She told The Spectator magazine: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants.”
The comments sparked a furious reaction from Indian government ministers and officials, sources from both governments have told The Times.
A source in Delhi said they were “shocked and disappointed” by the “disrespectful” remarks.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr
A word used only by fanatics or those prone to exaggeration. Liz is incompetent and has an inflated opinion of her own ability, but that's not unusual in politicians and journalists.
She's not evil, she's a very naughty girl.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://on.ft.com/3RTqmBM
An amusing take on the BoE governor's latest helpful intervention.
I generally would only use that word for someone who inflicts direct, deliberate, and severe harm on other humans.
Bonus points if they get kicks out of it.
I think there are better words to describe liz and her band of fellow idiots.
However, I don’t have a problem with describing her ideology as “evil”
In my experience, it’s a good lesson for life.
Use these kind of emotive, absolutist words to describe ideas or behaviours. Not actual people. Separate the person from the idea/behaviour.
Gets you into far fewer unwinnable fights. More likely to win people over to your side of an argument, too.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1580075433931874304
Not great for a minister to have to say that out loud.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580077305946263553
I disagree. There are times when its usage can be perfectly apt: for instance I believe it's fine for Russia's actions in Ukraine to be called 'evil'. I'd even extend that to Putin himself.
If the results are horrendous for the Government then it could help Truss by causing a massive distraction.
(Assuming Truss is still leader!)
“The government may may have to step in to rescue stricken pension funds itself. Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury official, said on Twitter: “It is not the Bank of England’s job to bail out pension funds. But history suggests it’s a job the government will take on and it will be working on a scheme right now. Sadly, this can only add to the state’s liabilities and to upward pressure on interest rates.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/bailey-puts-boe-credibility-on-line-with-vow-to-end-gilt-buying
A former councillor has pointed out a lot of venues which are used for counts could be used for local coronation events, which could be problematic, especially for those places which start counts on Friday morning.
Edit - the Jubilee delayed Boris Johnson's VONC, not stopped it outright, I suspect the same will apply to Liz, if she lasts that long.
If she was an incompetent CEO she would be forced out. The question for the tories is if they are going to let her ruin their party.
Mike Regnier told the Guardian that he was keeping a close eye on the “strain and pressure” facing customers as a result of the cost of living crisis, which has made it harder for some households to keep up with rising food and energy bills and financial commitments such as home loans.
That strain has been compounded by rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, which has resulted in higher monthly payments for borrowers coming off of fixed-rate mortgages.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/11/rise-in-uk-borrowers-falling-behind-on-mortgage-payments-says-santander
The reason why “no one is buying long dates gilts apart from the BoE” is simple, why would you until you are certain that the deleveraging within the funds has completed, especially when the BoE Governor is giving such jumpy mixed signals on his intent? Once this short phase is over, gilts are beginning to look a pretty attractive store of wealth if you ask me.
Today I'm working on updating our stress tests at work to see how the business could cope with economic turbulence..
I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1579959215237787648?t=NK3tT4uRSj_-WFwCMJ2V_g&s=19
a person, thing, or fact that is very different from other people, things, or facts, so that it cannot be used to draw general conclusions:
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/outlier
The second part of the story is that political elections often deliver the prize to “the one who isn’t”, in this case the members’ desire to elect someone who didn’t have their fingerprints on the dagger that killed the clown.
The MPs are really the ones to blame - they could so easily have put Mordaunt up against Sunak. Mordaunt carried different risks but she does at least seem to have the ability to ‘do human’ and the sense to realise that elections are won from the centre. Her pitch was entirely based around the skills needed to lead, and she specifically recognised with her slogan that it’s about the team not the boss - zeroing in precisely on the character flaw that has so quickly sunk Truss, who has been close to the clown for long enough to learn the wrong lessons and pick up his bad habits,
How soon before Con are polling single figures?
Mogg: “I haven’t heard either of those terms
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1580083152692793344
Three cheers for Liz.
Hip hip hooray.
If you are talking about counting support amongst her colleagues she still has a majority of 70 odd. She can get her way in the Commons although I agree with the comments downthread by @IanB2 that she should have focused on bringing the party back together again and making full use of the limited talent available.
However, we *need* migrants. We're a nation of migrants, and there are a whole underclass of jobs that right-thinking Brits don't want to do. When tosspot government ministers say "just get a better job" to poor people, who do they imagine will do these essential jobs they leave behind? That's right - MIGRANTS.
Fun times ahead.
She was absolutely determined to do all the things, right up to the point when she wasn't...
Here we could add in Case, Spielman, Acland-Hood, that period officer in Dundee, the current Chancellor…
What have Liz and Kwasi done that has so upset the Bank of England that they are prepared to allow the turmoil to continue unchecked?
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1580081627925204992/photo/1
Are there any Truss / Kwarteng policies so far announced for which there is widespread support either in Parliament, including their own party, or among the people affected?
Hard to think of many. And thus, their survival must be in serious doubt.
What utter utter arseholes.
(Times) https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1580084472472809472/photo/1
I assumed this a fairly sophisticated forum and David is one of the sharpest posters. I was referring to counting in the political sense.
Any positive news is *despite* her instead of because
But the fundamental problems are not Truss's fault. We have been living in an ever more delusional state for 30 years now, assuming that the world owes us a living and that we are somehow entitled to a good standard of living and excellent public services whether we produce enough to pay for them or not. We are seriously close to the end of the road with much of our foreign investment cashed in and many of our more productive assets already sold.
What we really need to do, rather than trying to dash for growth with unfunded tax cuts, is rebalance our economy by increasing savings and investment, massively reducing consumption, driving productivity and taking our chronic balance of payments seriously. This country had a trade deficit of 8% of GDP in the first half and we are trying to cut taxes? No wonder our gilts are looking unattractive.
However, this prognosis is unnecessarily gloomy. Others are prepared to buy our debt - but not when the BOE is determined to flog off £80bn of it in a year. It's a crazy, irresponsible, hairpin turn of a policy. Fortunately for the bank (and unfortunately for everyone else) the public doesn't really understand such matters, and assumes automatically that the bank is acting out of necessity in the interests of the British economy. Neither is true.
These new Iranian-made drones don’t seem to be particularly effective at getting to their targets, air defences have taken out nine of them overnight in the South of Ukraine near Kherson and Mykolaiv.
But yes, ever since Blair the PM edges you out as soon as it gets interesting, had to think about who his FS actually was - even Hoon at armed forces got more airtime.
The latest one - she is imposing a windfall tax on the excess profits being made by energy companies. All the way through her leadership she said "no handouts, no windfall tax". Then announced handouts *to the energy companies* paid for by consumers. Now is taking off them any profits over a level they are setting - a windfall tax.
She is in office, but not in power.
I think you need your moral compass checked out
I believe he will collect.
The point about the pension fund intervention was not to intervene to support any particular level of gilt prices, but to act as a buyer of last resort when liquidity in the market disappeared.
Bailey put the pension funds with liquidity problems on notice to unwind their overleveraged positions by the end of this week. That's not unreasonable; the Bank's role is to protect the system, not individual funds.
The fact that he's stated the Bank will continue to act as a buyer of last resort after this week isn't a surprise either. It's a fundamental role of the bank.
She “doesn’t have the mandate to do some of the things she’s doing”.
https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-ex-tory-chair-baroness-warsi-says-pm-liz-truss-should-call-a-general-election
That’s the way an independent democracy functions
https://mobile.twitter.com/Moloknee/status/1579957784077955072