Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

These YouGov findings are terrible for Truss – politicalbetting.com

15678911»

Comments

  • HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    These are the seats defined as being "Blue Wall" by Redfield Wilton.

    Bournemouth East
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Cheltenham
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chippenham
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities Of London and Westminster
    Colchester
    Esher and Walton
    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Guildford
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Henley
    Hitchin and Harpenden
    Lewes
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Mole Valley
    Reading West
    Romsey and Southampton North
    South Cambridgeshire
    South East Cambridgeshire
    South West Surrey
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Taunton Deane
    Thornbury and Yate
    Totnes
    Truro and Falmouth
    Tunbridge Wells
    Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Wantage
    Watford
    Wells
    West Dorset
    Wimbledon
    Winchester
    Woking
    Wokingham
    Wycombe
    Most of those seats either voted Remain or were soft Leave ie Tory held seats now vulnerable post Brexit and the polar opposite of the strong Leave Labour held seats in the redwall that went Tory in 2019
    Yes, but the Tories are now shafted in both walls, and the bit in between them too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There is a potential route for the government to retreat from the abyss with admittedly some humiliation but in a way which could be spun as not total humiliation. It's basically to follow the advice given as long ago as September 28th by the excellent @Sime0nStylites, and issue a statement along these lines:

    "“In light of recent global market turmoil, HMG will re-evaluate the measures announced on September 23 in the context of recent sharp rise in interest rates. HMG remains fully committed to cutting taxes and reforming the supply side of the economy to generate economic wealth. At the same time, we also recognise the value of prudence. As a result, we will provide a detailed update on our plans at our announcement on November 23 [now it will have to be earlier, of course], which will also include a full OBR forecast.”

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1575098262155304965

    Except it also needs the statement to be made by Rishi Sunak, who has replaced Kwasi
    Ideally, yes, although not necessarily Rishi himself, it could be someone like Hunt or Javid.
    Yesterday’s yesterday’s men. Neither of which particularly inspire confidence. If I had to choose my perfect caretaker it would be W. Hague.
    I meant as Chancellor, i.e. giving Liz Truss a way to hang on as leader.
    A sort of Alasdair Darling figure? Honestly I think it misses the point. Truss is the problem. Hyper controversial and confrontational, but without the political and communication skills to pull it off. Keeping her on top of a managerial cabinet won’t work. It would be like asking Keith Moon to run a respectable accounting firm.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    dixiedean said:

    I cannot believe there is open talk amongst MP's of delaying and cancelling most of their own government's Budget.
    Has this ever happened before?

    Slab once or twice voted against their own budget provisions at Holyrood, but that was because the minority SNP government had done a judo move on their demand for A and B and pulled the rug from under Slab by saying "oh, good idea, we'll shove it in straight away, TVM". Instant deletion of grievance, so they had to vote against on the Bain Principle.

    No idea if this will happen at Westminster, mind.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916

    Selebian said:

    GB News is facing a second investigation by the media regulator Ofcom over its coverage of the coronavirus vaccine.

    The latest investigation relates to an interview with the author Naomi Wolf in which she claimed women were being harmed by Covid-19 vaccines as part of an effort to “to destroy British civil society”.

    Ofcom said it would investigate whether the programme broke “rules designed to protect viewers from harmful material” after receiving more than 400 complaints from members of the public.

    In the interview, which was originally broadcast on 4 October, Wolf also compared doctors’ support for the vaccine rollout to the behaviour of the medical profession in Nazi Germany and described herself as the “last remaining independent journalist” willing to question this.


    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/oct/12/gb-news-second-ofcom-investigation-covid-vaccine-coverage-naomi-wolf-mark-steyn-show?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Crikey, GB News has 400+ viewers? :open_mouth:
    Not necessarily. It could be 400 from one very angry person.
    I know GBeebies is piss poor. But as nobody sensible thinks it is actual serious news why bother complaining?
    Naomi Wolf used to be non insane. Did she catch the Trump Stupidity Virus or what?
    I'm cynical enough to believe this sort of person is *not* insane - it's just that there's a heck of a lot of money to be made from holding 'alternative' views.
    Yep, there are a variety of reasons for holding "interesting" (aka stupid) views. Genuine stupidity is certainly one of them but another is to garner attention and money.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,152
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    37m
    Veiled threat from Putin: “All Infrastructure at Risk”
    That’s def the fear of energy users in Europe.
    The boss of a leading industrial firm recently told me: “I’d be shocked if there weren’t submarines & warships patrolling the Langeled pipeline [Norway -> UK] right now.”

    Happily we are trying to legislate to stop power generation here. So it will be fine.
    Could you explain as I am not sure what you mean
    Banning solar farms from farms, I expect. ['Here' being England.]
    Except that no one is banning, or aspiring to ban, them.

    It's a somewhat more demanding planning hurdle, and local authorities are free to do what they wish. Plus decisions should be appealable to the Planning Inspectorate like other planning decisions, the PI rule on the basis law not on local politics, and grants of PP by local authorities are not appealable.

    Given that solar arrays are better on unused spaces such as warehouse roofs and airports, a higher hurdle seems not unreasoble.

    The headline Mike (or was it TSE?) featured the other day was demonstrated to contain the routine quality of BS in many Guardian headlines (ie almost 100%) by about paragraph 3 of the article.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    These are the seats defined as being "Blue Wall" by Redfield Wilton.

    Bournemouth East
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Cheltenham
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chippenham
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities Of London and Westminster
    Colchester
    Esher and Walton
    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Guildford
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Henley
    Hitchin and Harpenden
    Lewes
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Mole Valley
    Reading West
    Romsey and Southampton North
    South Cambridgeshire
    South East Cambridgeshire
    South West Surrey
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Taunton Deane
    Thornbury and Yate
    Totnes
    Truro and Falmouth
    Tunbridge Wells
    Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Wantage
    Watford
    Wells
    West Dorset
    Wimbledon
    Winchester
    Woking
    Wokingham
    Wycombe
    Most of those seats either voted Remain or were soft Leave ie Tory held seats now vulnerable post Brexit and the polar opposite of the strong Leave Labour held seats in the redwall that went Tory in 2019
    Yes. The criteria used to choose them were:

    "Blue Wall' Seats are defined as the 42 parliamentary constituencies that:

    1) Are located in the South of England.
    2) The Conservative Party won in 2019, 2017, and 2015.
    3) Have a 25% or more population of university-degree holders.
    4) Had a Remain vote share greater than 42.5%
    5) The Conservative Party won in 2019 by less than 15,000 votes over the Liberal Democrats or by less than 10,000 votes over Labour."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Forget AI, this is far more concerning - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63195653

    Is it ?
    Yes, how do we know that one of these mini-brains doesn't have consciousness? It's such a huge ethical minefield and if they do, what kind of implications does it have wrt "programming" these mini-brains to perform computational tasks? Is it slavery?

    These kinds of experiments are on the edge of what the rules should and shouldn't allow.
    CAN WE PLEASE HAVE NO MORE TALK OF THESE MINI-BRAINS. @LEON WILL COME ALONG, GET REALLY EXCITED AND ANNOUNCE THAT THEY'RE WOKE ALIEN MINI-BRAINS AND WILL TOTALLY DERAIL THE CONVERSATION.

    COULD ALL PBers PLEASE DELETE ALL REFERENCES TO MINI BRAINS BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.
    “Dishbrain”, then.
    https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(22)00806-6#relatedArticles

    It’s over an order of magnitude smaller than a mouse brain, and subject to considerable constraints, so I don’t think consciousness is an immediate issue. The bioethicists are actively worrying about it, though, and rightly so.
  • https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    That makes for some interesting viewing - the answer to "how does Starmer win a majority without Scotland" is to reclaim scores of southern England seats last held in the Blair era.

    LibDems would also reclaim a few dozen seats or more if the "fuck the Tories" tactical vote is really focused...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    These are the seats defined as being "Blue Wall" by Redfield Wilton.

    Bournemouth East
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Cheltenham
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chippenham
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities Of London and Westminster
    Colchester
    Esher and Walton
    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Guildford
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Henley
    Hitchin and Harpenden
    Lewes
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Mole Valley
    Reading West
    Romsey and Southampton North
    South Cambridgeshire
    South East Cambridgeshire
    South West Surrey
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Taunton Deane
    Thornbury and Yate
    Totnes
    Truro and Falmouth
    Tunbridge Wells
    Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Wantage
    Watford
    Wells
    West Dorset
    Wimbledon
    Winchester
    Woking
    Wokingham
    Wycombe
    Most of those seats either voted Remain or were soft Leave ie Tory held seats now vulnerable post Brexit and the polar opposite of the strong Leave Labour held seats in the redwall that went Tory in 2019
    Yes, but the Tories are now shafted in both walls, and the bit in between them too.
    you don't see a purple patch for the Tories there then?
  • Jonathan said:




    A sort of Alasdair Darling figure? Honestly I think it misses the point. Truss is the problem. Hyper controversial and confrontational, but without the political and communication skills to pull it off. Keeping her on top of a managerial cabinet won’t work. It would be like asking Keith Moon to run a respectable accounting firm.

    Of course, you are right. I was looking at it from her point of view - how could she execute the necessary screeching U-turn and arrest the immediate market decline with at least a semblance of not being totally humiliated.

    I think that it is quite probable that she'll try something like that. Whether it will work is another matter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916
    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    37m
    Veiled threat from Putin: “All Infrastructure at Risk”
    That’s def the fear of energy users in Europe.
    The boss of a leading industrial firm recently told me: “I’d be shocked if there weren’t submarines & warships patrolling the Langeled pipeline [Norway -> UK] right now.”

    Happily we are trying to legislate to stop power generation here. So it will be fine.
    Could you explain as I am not sure what you mean
    Banning solar farms from farms, I expect. ['Here' being England.]
    Except that no one is banning, or aspiring to ban, them.

    It's a somewhat more demanding planning hurdle, and local authorities are free to do what they wish. Plus decisions should be appealable to the Planning Inspectorate like other planning decisions, the PI rule on the basis law not on local politics, and grants of PP by local authorities are not appealable.

    Given that solar arrays are better on unused spaces such as warehouse roofs and airports, a higher hurdle seems not unreasoble.

    The headline Mike (or was it TSE?) featured the other day was demonstrated to contain the routine quality of BS in many Guardian headlines (ie almost 100%) by about paragraph 3 of the article.
    Fair enough; and there is the food autarky drive issue (concealed as it might be, if it exists).

    But compared to the stuff emanating from HMG's other end about a bonfire of planning, then for all practical purposes - and certainly for the short term - putting extra restrictions on solar panels is pretty much a ban, albeit presumptive.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Give me a "Holy shit I'm glad I don't live in America"

    https://twitter.com/jaywillis/status/1579852329628860417
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
    But those places have already got shitty reputations!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    How many seats is the Blue Wall? Trying to put the gains in context.
  • Ireland's football association and the women's team manager have apologised after players sang a song referencing the IRA while celebrating their World Cup qualification.

    Videos circulated on social media showing them singing the song after Tuesday night's 1-0 play-off victory over Scotland at Hampden Park.

    A statement by the Football Association of Ireland (FAI) apologised "for any offence caused" for the dressing room incident.

    Coach Vera Pauw said: "We apologise from the bottom of our hearts to anyone who has been offended by the content of the post-match celebrations after we had just qualified for the World Cup.

    "We will review this with the players and remind them of their responsibilities in this regard.

    "I have spoken with players this morning and we are sorry collectively for any hurt caused, there can be no excuse for that."


    https://news.sky.com/story/ireland-women-players-sorry-for-hurt-caused-by-song-referencing-ira-12718642?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,783
    Alistair said:

    How many seats is the Blue Wall? Trying to put the gains in context.

    42, is the total in the stats for that map - which matcvhes the list posted below. So Tories end up with 1 in 6 of the total seats, losing 5 in 6.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,605
    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Forget AI, this is far more concerning - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63195653

    Is it ?
    Yes, how do we know that one of these mini-brains doesn't have consciousness? It's such a huge ethical minefield and if they do, what kind of implications does it have wrt "programming" these mini-brains to perform computational tasks? Is it slavery?

    These kinds of experiments are on the edge of what the rules should and shouldn't allow.
    CAN WE PLEASE HAVE NO MORE TALK OF THESE MINI-BRAINS. @LEON WILL COME ALONG, GET REALLY EXCITED AND ANNOUNCE THAT THEY'RE WOKE ALIEN MINI-BRAINS AND WILL TOTALLY DERAIL THE CONVERSATION.

    COULD ALL PBers PLEASE DELETE ALL REFERENCES TO MINI BRAINS BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.
    No talk about mini-brains around Leon in case he gets upset? Understood!

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    “Many believe that ousting her so soon after getting rid of Boris Johnson would make the party a laughing stock, while others who would happily see her removed fear Tory party members could contrive to replace her with someone worse.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-has-run-out-of-good-options_uk_6346d575e4b051268c452f5d
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919

    Jonathan said:




    A sort of Alasdair Darling figure? Honestly I think it misses the point. Truss is the problem. Hyper controversial and confrontational, but without the political and communication skills to pull it off. Keeping her on top of a managerial cabinet won’t work. It would be like asking Keith Moon to run a respectable accounting firm.

    Of course, you are right. I was looking at it from her point of view - how could she execute the necessary screeching U-turn and arrest the immediate market decline with at least a semblance of not being totally humiliated.

    I think that it is quite probable that she'll try something like that. Whether it will work is another matter.
    Does Truss have a Conservative hinterland or instinct she can fall back on? I can’t see it. A safety first approach seems to be a complete anathema to her. She seems destined to double down until it blows up.

    I’ve been impressed by how she, as a senior politician, failed to take the heat out of the budget situation. I can make up my mind whether it’s because she can’t or simply doesn’t want to. She seems to be validated by unpopularity and chaos.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    It's tough. Because Boris didn't get to own this absolute disaster so I don't think the membership can realise that.

    They'll think "if only Boris was still around" ignoring that Boris had already started putting the Tories underwater November last year.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,152
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    37m
    Veiled threat from Putin: “All Infrastructure at Risk”
    That’s def the fear of energy users in Europe.
    The boss of a leading industrial firm recently told me: “I’d be shocked if there weren’t submarines & warships patrolling the Langeled pipeline [Norway -> UK] right now.”

    Happily we are trying to legislate to stop power generation here. So it will be fine.
    Could you explain as I am not sure what you mean
    Banning solar farms from farms, I expect. ['Here' being England.]
    Except that no one is banning, or aspiring to ban, them.

    It's a somewhat more demanding planning hurdle, and local authorities are free to do what they wish. Plus decisions should be appealable to the Planning Inspectorate like other planning decisions, the PI rule on the basis law not on local politics, and grants of PP by local authorities are not appealable.

    Given that solar arrays are better on unused spaces such as warehouse roofs and airports, a higher hurdle seems not unreasoble.

    The headline Mike (or was it TSE?) featured the other day was demonstrated to contain the routine quality of BS in many Guardian headlines (ie almost 100%) by about paragraph 3 of the article.
    Fair enough; and there is the food autarky drive issue (concealed as it might be, if it exists).

    But compared to the stuff emanating from HMG's other end about a bonfire of planning, then for all practical purposes - and certainly for the short term - putting extra restrictions on solar panels is pretty much a ban, albeit presumptive.
    That's also fair enough.

    I can't decide which politicians this is reminding me of:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIBAMDfMDMc
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2022
    After being puzzled about the tightening Senate race in Pennsylvania I've discovered the reason. The mainstream media have grown tired of Dr Oz being beaten up every week for the last 2 months and have decided to make it a horse race by going large on "What Brain Damage is Fetterman hiding???!???!"

    It's just wall to wall coverage on the topic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    Agreed - but the collateral damage to the country is a small issue of concern…
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    That is a very good point.
  • Jonathan said:


    Does Truss have a Conservative hinterland or instinct she can fall back on? I can’t see it. A safety first approach seems to be a complete anathema to her. She seems destined to double down until it blows up.

    I’ve been impressed by how she, as a senior politician, failed to take the heat out of the budget situation. I can make up my mind whether it’s because she can’t or simply doesn’t want to. She seems to be validated by unpopularity and chaos.

    Cummings was right. She's properly bonkers. She is, however, not entirely stupid, and she's shameless.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    in private Labour is praying the Tory party keeps its current leader until the next election, but many Conservative MPs are already determined to stop that happening
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1580233616310665218
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,957
    Alistair said:

    After being puzzled about the tightening Senate race in Pennsylvania I've discovered the reason. The mainstream media have grown tired of Dr Oz being beaten up every week for the last 2 months and have decided to make it a horse race by going large on "What Brain Damage is Fetterman hiding???!???!"

    It's just wall to wall coverage on the topic.

    FWIW, the reason I think that Fetterman wins in PA is that Mastriano is an even worse candidate than Oz.

    There will be little split ticket voting (I can see it in Georgia, where I expect Kemp to outperform meaningfully), and therefore weaker Senatorial or Gubernatorial candidates will be "pulled up" by their more popular partners.

    But Mastriano is just awful. He's even managed to accuse the Jews of trying to stitch up the race, in a state with a large, Orthodox, Republican voting minority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    The first photos of a D-1 152mm howitzer in use by Russian (LNR) forces- they were transferred to the DNR/LNR in the end of August, but photos appeared just now.
    The D-1 first entered service with the Red Army in 1943...

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1580229323516444674
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    That is a very good point.
    Tory members need to have a 2019 Corbyn level defeat to realise their ideas are fantasies and have no support.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    “Many believe that ousting her so soon after getting rid of Boris Johnson would make the party a laughing stock, while others who would happily see her removed fear Tory party members could contrive to replace her with someone worse.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-has-run-out-of-good-options_uk_6346d575e4b051268c452f5d

    Yep. Not such contrive is the right word. They will simply vote for the more extreme, demented, bonkers right winger of the two. Unless somehow MPs can engineer two Sunaks or Sunak vs Hunt then the party is stuffed.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    When you find yourself agreeing with Piers Morgan…

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1580137909155336192
    Britain’s finances are heading over a cliff because two people with no mandate from the British public decided to play reckless roulette with our economy. The Tories should admit this ghastly experiment has been an unmitigated fiasco & get rid of Truss/Kwarteng asap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    After being puzzled about the tightening Senate race in Pennsylvania I've discovered the reason. The mainstream media have grown tired of Dr Oz being beaten up every week for the last 2 months and have decided to make it a horse race by going large on "What Brain Damage is Fetterman hiding???!???!"

    It's just wall to wall coverage on the topic.

    FWIW, the reason I think that Fetterman wins in PA is that Mastriano is an even worse candidate than Oz.

    There will be little split ticket voting (I can see it in Georgia, where I expect Kemp to outperform meaningfully), and therefore weaker Senatorial or Gubernatorial candidates will be "pulled up" by their more popular partners.

    But Mastriano is just awful. He's even managed to accuse the Jews of trying to stitch up the race, in a state with a large, Orthodox, Republican voting minority.
    That, and the puppy murders…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    These are the seats defined as being "Blue Wall" by Redfield Wilton.

    Bournemouth East
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Cheltenham
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chippenham
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities Of London and Westminster
    Colchester
    Esher and Walton
    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Guildford
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Henley
    Hitchin and Harpenden
    Lewes
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Mole Valley
    Reading West
    Romsey and Southampton North
    South Cambridgeshire
    South East Cambridgeshire
    South West Surrey
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Taunton Deane
    Thornbury and Yate
    Totnes
    Truro and Falmouth
    Tunbridge Wells
    Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Wantage
    Watford
    Wells
    West Dorset
    Wimbledon
    Winchester
    Woking
    Wokingham
    Wycombe
    Most of those seats either voted Remain or were soft Leave ie Tory held seats now vulnerable post Brexit and the polar opposite of the strong Leave Labour held seats in the redwall that went Tory in 2019
    Yes. The criteria used to choose them were:

    "Blue Wall' Seats are defined as the 42 parliamentary constituencies that:

    1) Are located in the South of England.
    2) The Conservative Party won in 2019, 2017, and 2015.
    3) Have a 25% or more population of university-degree holders.
    4) Had a Remain vote share greater than 42.5%
    5) The Conservative Party won in 2019 by less than 15,000 votes over the Liberal Democrats or by less than 10,000 votes over Labour."
    5) seems odd, as do some of the others. Red Wall was supposed to mean staunchly Labour seats which would never fall. Blue Wall appears to be defined here as the more likely seats to fall.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,401
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is surely impossible for sentient Tory backbenchers either to precipitate an election, or to allow Truss to continue as leader, with polling like this ?

    The “give her a chance” line is just madness in this context,
    Part of me wants the idiot members to own this loss though. If the MPs remove her it will just give them an out "well she never got a chance so we don't know if she could have turned it around" and "the media destroyed her and Tory MPs betrayed her and us" etc...

    Let Liz take a gigantic L and force the members to realise just how out of touch they are with modern Britain.
    This is the same party membership that gave us Iain Duncan Smith over Ken Clarke twenty years ago. They haven't changed. They're not gonna change.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600

    Labour leads by 13% in the Blue Wall.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (7-8 October):

    Labour 41% (+20)
    Conservative 28% (-22)
    Liberal Democrat 24% (-3)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Reform UK 3% (New)
    Other 1% (–)

    Truss is so screwed...

    These are the seats defined as being "Blue Wall" by Redfield Wilton.

    Bournemouth East
    Chelsea and Fulham
    Cheltenham
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chippenham
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities Of London and Westminster
    Colchester
    Esher and Walton
    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Golders Green
    Guildford
    Harrow East
    Hendon
    Henley
    Hitchin and Harpenden
    Lewes
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Mole Valley
    Reading West
    Romsey and Southampton North
    South Cambridgeshire
    South East Cambridgeshire
    South West Surrey
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Taunton Deane
    Thornbury and Yate
    Totnes
    Truro and Falmouth
    Tunbridge Wells
    Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Wantage
    Watford
    Wells
    West Dorset
    Wimbledon
    Winchester
    Woking
    Wokingham
    Wycombe
    Most of those seats either voted Remain or were soft Leave ie Tory held seats now vulnerable post Brexit and the polar opposite of the strong Leave Labour held seats in the redwall that went Tory in 2019
    Yes. The criteria used to choose them were:

    "Blue Wall' Seats are defined as the 42 parliamentary constituencies that:

    1) Are located in the South of England.
    2) The Conservative Party won in 2019, 2017, and 2015.
    3) Have a 25% or more population of university-degree holders.
    4) Had a Remain vote share greater than 42.5%
    5) The Conservative Party won in 2019 by less than 15,000 votes over the Liberal Democrats or by less than 10,000 votes over Labour."
    5) seems odd, as do some of the others. Red Wall was supposed to mean staunchly Labour seats which would never fall. Blue Wall appears to be defined here as the more likely seats to fall.
    That is what it was supposed to mean.
    However, the R+W Red Wall survey includes seats which are longstanding marginals.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,417
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
    It's very heartwarming to know your opinion of those who work to keep our public lavatories clean, or in call centres. Along with Rochdale Pioneers oh so ironic use of 'darkies' earlier, it's just giving the most delightful impression of those of your political persuasion.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,257
    How can Truss rehabiliatate herself? No way, but if Corbyn were to miraculously be re-appoined, it might just ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Rees-Mogg, the thinking man's fool, was deflecting blame on the current crisis by referring to the government's actions as a 'minor part of fiscal policy'.

    Has he told Truss or Kwarteng this, as I am sure they were telling us how the government's actions were vital, necessary and massively impactful in a positive way.

    There is much to be said for our very own Cultural Revolution in which Mogg and ilk are put to work in public lavatories and call centres.
    It's very heartwarming to know your opinion of those who work to keep our public lavatories clean, or in call centres. Along with Rochdale Pioneers oh so ironic use of 'darkies' earlier, it's just giving the most delightful impression of those of your political persuasion.
    Well whatever our equivalent of "the fields" is - it being a cultural revolution joke and all.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,632
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Forget AI, this is far more concerning - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63195653

    Is it ?
    Yes, how do we know that one of these mini-brains doesn't have consciousness? It's such a huge ethical minefield and if they do, what kind of implications does it have wrt "programming" these mini-brains to perform computational tasks? Is it slavery?

    These kinds of experiments are on the edge of what the rules should and shouldn't allow.
    CAN WE PLEASE HAVE NO MORE TALK OF THESE MINI-BRAINS. @LEON WILL COME ALONG, GET REALLY EXCITED AND ANNOUNCE THAT THEY'RE WOKE ALIEN MINI-BRAINS AND WILL TOTALLY DERAIL THE CONVERSATION.

    COULD ALL PBers PLEASE DELETE ALL REFERENCES TO MINI BRAINS BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.
    Ok I promise not to refer to politicians
This discussion has been closed.