Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
He should really stick to building rockets, which is what he’s good at, rather than international diplomacy.
(Snip)
I'd strongly argue that at least half of SpaceX's success is down to Shotwell, not Musk. She has led the company admirably in a business and technical sense.
I'd also argue that the SH/SS combo down in Texas *isn't* as well managed, or going as well as Musk promised.
I do not think that there is any chance of the Conservatives removing Truss. She is the duly elected choice of the membership after a horrendously self indulgent leadership campaign that left noone at the wheel for most of the summer. The Tories are as trapped with her as Labour was by Corbyn after the membership re-elected him.
There are several things that might go right for Truss over the next few months but they look very likely to be drowned out by things going not so well. In particular I think that the BoE will continue to increase base rates with consequential increases in mortgages. The idea that it is the government's job to keep your mortgage rate well below the current rate of inflation is a frankly bizarre one but consistent with the modern belief that governments can somehow protect us from economic threats (spoiler, they can't).
Between 1995 and 1997 the Tories ran things fairly well. In particular they had an excellent Chancellor who produced real results on the economy. None of it did a blind bit of good. The anhilation of 1997 was written in stone years before. So is the wipeout of 2024 (like all lost governments they will hang on to the last possible minute).
All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of saying no.
Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
For Tory prospects, she is as terrifying as Hannibal Lecter.
Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
For Tory prospects, she is as terrifying as Hannibal Lecter.
Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
I do not think that there is any chance of the Conservatives removing Truss. She is the duly elected choice of the membership after a horrendously self indulgent leadership campaign that left noone at the wheel for most of the summer. The Tories are as trapped with her as Labour was by Corbyn after the membership re-elected him.
There are several things that might go right for Truss over the next few months but they look very likely to be drowned out by things going not so well. In particular I think that the BoE will continue to increase base rates with consequential increases in mortgages. The idea that it is the government's job to keep your mortgage rate well below the current rate of inflation is a frankly bizarre one but consistent with the modern belief that governments can somehow protect us from economic threats (spoiler, they can't).
Between 1995 and 1997 the Tories ran things fairly well. In particular they had an excellent Chancellor who produced real results on the economy. None of it did a blind bit of good. The anhilation of 1997 was written in stone years before. So is the wipeout of 2024 (like all lost governments they will hang on to the last possible minute).
All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of saying no.
Or a punters way of saying take the evens on a Labour MAjority.
Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
For Tory prospects, she is as terrifying as Hannibal Lecter.
Another terrifying Welshman.
That implies there's a Welshman that doesn't terrify an Englishman, and such we know is not the case given our prowess.
Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
Maybe she’s the new Hannibal Smith? Judged harshly for a crime she didn’t commit she will soon escape into the Los Angeles underground with a friend who doesn’t like to fly. And the bloke out of Battlestar Galactica.
Jamie Bamber is an absolute dreamboat.
Except for the episodes where he gets fat while commanding the Pegasus.
Ukraine is turning the tide against "exhausted" Russian forces, the head of Britain's GCHQ intelligence agency will say in a speech on Tuesday. Despite the missile attacks on targets across Ukraine on Monday, Sir Jeremy Fleming will claim Moscow is running out of ammunition. He will say President Vladimir Putin's decision-making has proved "flawed".
This morning the CBI are reported as releasing a survey of members where three quarters say they have faced labour shortages and nearly half saying this has impacted their ability to grow their business.
So the government with their growth agenda needs to face into the structural issues previous versions of this government have ignored:
High cost of housing in tourism areas. You can't "build more houses" without destroying these areas. But we could tax to death the second homes which lie empty much of the year High cost of childcare. Plenty of people want to work but can't because wages don't cover childcare costs. High cost of and lack of public transport - the infamous IDS visit up the valleys imploring local unemployed to take jobs in booming Cardiff. In bars. With no public transport to get them home or childcare. Lack of migrant workers to fill the gaps. The "points-based immigration system" was supposed to enable us to bring in who we needed. Instead we just shut the door to the evil forrin and said "done".
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
The alternative is that we all die. But, you know, you do you
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
The alternative is that we all die. But, you know, you do you
Next time you change identity, can you just go with ChickenLittle?
The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?
My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.
On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?
Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.
“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"
It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there
Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.
I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.
I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
*Russian* sources are admitting they can’t really train the conscripts properly - no infrastructure, equipment and the training personnel got sent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army is training on Salisbury Plain. I wonder if they visit the cathedral on their days off.
Can’t see untrained conscripts doing much on a modern battlefield.
On thing that is going to be of interest in the post war Ukrainian memoirs is the range of types of forces and how they are employed. Some attacks are classic tank and infantry. Some are LRDG style rushes in heavily armed unarmoured vehicles. In some areas they are even using dune buggies armed with 0.5” machine guns and anti tank missiles.
The Ukrainian military seems to have embraced adaptation and flexibility in a way that is beyond most Western militaries.
Nothing to see here. The brilliant leadership of KT fixed the problem already. Indeed Tory MPs should now rally behind them and Respect The Mandate of the senile old giffers who imposed these people on them.
Some political programs are shooting for the moon. This one is The Core, but an alternative script where the mission is to burrow the Tory % score into the earth and then stop the core so that everyone dies.
Therese Coffrey is really weak on R4. The Deputy PM dodging any question, you need to speak to Sec State for X, Y and Z. She doesn't even appear to know what is going on in her department.
Thankfully, it appears to have been a quiet night in Ukraine.
Which is another indication that the enemy is running out of weapons. @Yokes commented that intel suggested there might be a couple of weeks of yesterday’s scale of bombardments, which would be the militarily sensible course of action.
That this hasn’t happened, is suggestive of having insufficient resources to keep up any cadence of missile attack against Ukraine. The same comment is coming up from multiple commentators now, that the Russians are basically exhausted of (conventional) weapons, hence asking Belarus and North Korea for help.
A special note of thanks to Xi Jinping in China, who I suggested months ago would be the key to whether or not we ended up with WWIII. Thankfully, he’s decided against arming the Russians, and prefers to stay neutral.
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
Before you come up with a 'deal', you need to look at what both sides want. Such a 'deal' gives the Ukrainians nothing towards their aims. It does give Putin a 'win' in the form of territory, and most importantly, time to train and renew his military.
It is therefore an utterly one-sided deal, giving the side that is badly losing a big win. And given Putin's desires are more than just Ukraine, it does nothing to guarantee peace in the future when he goes after Poland or the Baltics.
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Anti-democrat, heal thyself.
I think it's time for us to accept that Russia gets all of Europe. From Vladivostok to Lisbon. Somewhat shit for Brussels and Paris but then they were wankers over Brexit
Quid pro quo: Putin leaves the US and UK alone otherwise we nuke him and kill him, likewise Australia etc. So then we divide the world into the Russophere, the Anglosphere, and the Sinosphere, and we proceed from there
Therese Coffrey is really weak on R4. The Deputy PM dodging any question, you need to speak to Sec State for X, Y and Z. She doesn't even appear to know what is going on in her department.
Thankfully, it appears to have been a quiet night in Ukraine.
Which is another indication that the enemy is running out of weapons. @Yokes commented that intel suggested there might be a couple of weeks of yesterday’s scale of bombardments, which would be the militarily sensible course of action.
That this hasn’t happened, is suggestive of having insufficient resources to keep up any cadence of missile attack against Ukraine. The same comment is coming up from multiple commentators now, that the Russians are basically exhausted of (conventional) weapons, hence asking Belarus and North Korea for help.
A special note of thanks to Xi Jinping in China, who I suggested months ago would be the key to whether or not we ended up with WWIII. Thankfully, he’s decided against arming the Russians, and prefers to stay neutral.
The Russians seem to have little material depth beyond anti-ship missiles, rusty tanks and rusty artillery. And in a modern war that doesn’t cut it. Tanks need advanced sights, special ammunition, armour arrays that aren’t empty boxes. Artillery needs frequent rebarreling - otherwise it explodes.
Bombarding cities with missiles is ruinously expensive. The Nazis spent more than the Manhattan Project on the V2. And achieved the square root of nothing, The War of The Cities between Iran and Iraq was similarly useless.
Quite extraordinary story. Even @Leon has to be impressed by 60 million books.
Rod McKuen Was the Bestselling Poet in American History. What Happened? He sold 60 million books and 100 million records. Why was he forgotten?
https://slate.com/culture/2022/10/rod-mckuen-best-selling-poet-songs-what-happened.html ...There’s a catch, though. He can’t do anything with it, because the people who own the rights to use the material are Edward Habib’s heirs. Habib died in 2018 without any children, and his relatives don’t seem to see what could be so important about all of this, and have been unable to agree on any kind of deal. Zax is the guardian of Rod McKuen’s legacy, but he can’t do anything to perpetuate that legacy.
He’s been trying to get the Library of Congress or some university archive to take them. No one wants the tapes, because Rod McKuen has no cultural profile, but he’ll never recover that profile unless someone uses the tapes. The most salable poet in American history, and now he can’t get anyone to give a shit....
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
It should now be obvious that the patterns of market turbulence don't accord with the markets 'still being unconvinced' by Truss and Kwarteng's fiscal policies. They accord with the bank flogging off Government debt, stopping flogging it off, and then trying to start again. It would reassure the markets if the BOE stopped selling indefinitely until conditions change.
You think the BoE acting independent from government on last weeks sticking plaster plan? Really? It was likely divised in the Treasury in zoom calls with the bank.
You think it’s the banks actions spooking the markets, not the government sums failing to add up? Really?
You think the government have made no mistakes at all? Really?
Everyone else in the universe, even the ectoplasm living on planet Smith 4b known as the 2nd most right wing bio form in the universe admitted Truss has made mistakes, even Telegraph columnists the number 1 most right wing bio form in the universe have admitted Truss has made mistakes, everyone except you Lucky - you have to be different don’t you?
One obvious mistake was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets getting spooked, and market concerns for sums to add up have yet to be properly addressed by the government, a sticking plaster was put on last week, taken off the bleeding has started. What’s wrong with that argument?
The other obvious mistake was borrowing a quarter of a trillion to buck a market against all the rest of this new governments messaging and ideology. It’s not really them, why are they pushing on with a Starmer policy that’s very antithesis of what they believe in? That Labour Policy thinking also spooked the markets, and completely unnecessary, the alternative option of variable price cap is out there ready to be used by the government.
That’s the two obvious mistakes imo, you really should concede.
What's wrong with the argument is the timing. Continuing festering unease with the mini budget would have resulted in a totally different pattern. You can palm the initial market response off on Truss and Kwarteng, but this one is flat out, bang to rights, because the bank has restarted its bond selling programme.
Do you really think that the fact that the cost of borrowing has risen is not because the Bank is trying to sell British Government debt after 10 years of buying it? Do you not think that sends a leeeeetle signal?
I don't think Truss is infallible btw - I think she chose a shit COE. However, what's done is done.
They are trying to sterilise the market interventions of the last 15 years - they are worried about inflation
Thankfully, it appears to have been a quiet night in Ukraine.
Which is another indication that the enemy is running out of weapons. @Yokes commented that intel suggested there might be a couple of weeks of yesterday’s scale of bombardments, which would be the militarily sensible course of action.
That this hasn’t happened, is suggestive of having insufficient resources to keep up any cadence of missile attack against Ukraine. The same comment is coming up from multiple commentators now, that the Russians are basically exhausted of (conventional) weapons, hence asking Belarus and North Korea for help.
A special note of thanks to Xi Jinping in China, who I suggested months ago would be the key to whether or not we ended up with WWIII. Thankfully, he’s decided against arming the Russians, and prefers to stay neutral.
After his temper tantrum, 3 year old Vlad sits in aisle 5 amidst a mass of beans tins he pulled over.
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
Or a wilful ignorance.
Or that he has deals going on in China so he needs to kiss arse.
Huge rise in vacancies in the care sector. Government ministers have been encouraging people to take better paid jobs, and it looks like many in the care sector have done that. This could reopen questions in govt about immigration. https://twitter.com/skillsforcare/status/1579728551254757377
Therese Coffrey is really weak on R4. The Deputy PM dodging any question, you need to speak to Sec State for X, Y and Z. She doesn't even appear to know what is going on in her department.
"The panel’s own history reflects the intensity of the debate. Originally convened as a task force of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, a wide-reaching effort to derive lessons from the pandemic, it was disbanded by Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, the commission’s chair. Sachs alleged that several members had conflicts of interest that would bias them against the lab-origin hypothesis."
Therese Coffrey is really weak on R4. The Deputy PM dodging any question, you need to speak to Sec State for X, Y and Z. She doesn't even appear to know what is going on in her department.
Someone else promoted beyond their ability.
Not even close.
But have a cigar.
This morning business news is dreadful for Truss and Coffey is in denial
I really do not know what happens next but Truss and Kwarteng immediate resignations should be the minimum
I predict it'll be a week or less before they need to make a further intervention.
The BoE's strictly time limited actions aren't creating market stability, they are feeding market panic to sell everything in a really short space of time to improve pension scheme liquidity.
Therese Coffrey is really weak on R4. The Deputy PM dodging any question, you need to speak to Sec State for X, Y and Z. She doesn't even appear to know what is going on in her department.
Someone else promoted beyond their ability.
Not even close.
But have a cigar.
This morning business news is dreadful for Truss and Coffey is in denial
I really do not know what happens next but Truss and Kwarteng immediate resignations should be the minimum
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
He has a $44billion financing need
(This is a statement of fact. Any implication on where he may be looking for the money is unintentional and purely coincidental. No pets or other animals were injured in the making of this post)
The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?
My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.
On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?
Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.
“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"
It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there
Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.
I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.
I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
*Russian* sources are admitting they can’t really train the conscripts properly - no infrastructure, equipment and the training personnel got sent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army is training on Salisbury Plain. I wonder if they visit the cathedral on their days off.
Can’t see untrained conscripts doing much on a modern battlefield.
On thing that is going to be of interest in the post war Ukrainian memoirs is the range of types of forces and how they are employed. Some attacks are classic tank and infantry. Some are LRDG style rushes in heavily armed unarmoured vehicles. In some areas they are even using dune buggies armed with 0.5” machine guns and anti tank missiles.
The Ukrainian military seems to have embraced adaptation and flexibility in a way that is beyond most Western militaries.
The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?
My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.
On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?
Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.
“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"
It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there
Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.
I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.
I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
*Russian* sources are admitting they can’t really train the conscripts properly - no infrastructure, equipment and the training personnel got sent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army is training on Salisbury Plain. I wonder if they visit the cathedral on their days off.
Can’t see untrained conscripts doing much on a modern battlefield.
On thing that is going to be of interest in the post war Ukrainian memoirs is the range of types of forces and how they are employed. Some attacks are classic tank and infantry. Some are LRDG style rushes in heavily armed unarmoured vehicles. In some areas they are even using dune buggies armed with 0.5” machine guns and anti tank missiles.
The Ukrainian military seems to have embraced adaptation and flexibility in a way that is beyond most Western militaries.
The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?
My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.
On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?
Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.
“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"
It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there
Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.
I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.
I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
*Russian* sources are admitting they can’t really train the conscripts properly - no infrastructure, equipment and the training personnel got sent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army is training on Salisbury Plain. I wonder if they visit the cathedral on their days off.
Can’t see untrained conscripts doing much on a modern battlefield.
On thing that is going to be of interest in the post war Ukrainian memoirs is the range of types of forces and how they are employed. Some attacks are classic tank and infantry. Some are LRDG style rushes in heavily armed unarmoured vehicles. In some areas they are even using dune buggies armed with 0.5” machine guns and anti tank missiles.
The Ukrainian military seems to have embraced adaptation and flexibility in a way that is beyond most Western militaries.
HIMARS that can fire over 100,000 tungsten balls from each shell are going to destroy the conscript infantry with just a few barrages. After that, conscript morale will be literally shot.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
I think it's time for us to accept that Russia gets all of Europe. From Vladivostok to Lisbon. Somewhat shit for Brussels and Paris but then they were wankers over Brexit
Quid pro quo: Putin leaves the US and UK alone otherwise we nuke him and kill him, likewise Australia etc. So then we divide the world into the Russophere, the Anglosphere, and the Sinosphere, and we proceed from there
Ukraine is turning the tide against "exhausted" Russian forces, the head of Britain's GCHQ intelligence agency will say in a speech on Tuesday. Despite the missile attacks on targets across Ukraine on Monday, Sir Jeremy Fleming will claim Moscow is running out of ammunition. He will say President Vladimir Putin's decision-making has proved "flawed".
All together now:
No. Shit. Sherlock.
Ok, but the fact he is saying this openly tells us much.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
Yes this has been my view for a while. Truss has realised that her growth plans are finished, and is going in to zombie mode, trying to cling on until the next election, which they will lose badly. Then again, events could ultimately intervene to make this strategy unsustainable.
“That the Bank of England has been forced to step in for a second day running to reassure markets shows the government's approach is not working, and creates renewed pressure for the Chancellor to reverse his Budget.”
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
The central problem here is one of credibility. Financial markets are not likely to be impressed by plans predicated either on an unlikely uptick in growth or on vague promises of public spending cuts far into the future. Kwasi Kwarteng warned about this in 2012! https://twitter.com/BenZaranko/status/1579716188560842753/photo/1
"The panel’s own history reflects the intensity of the debate. Originally convened as a task force of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, a wide-reaching effort to derive lessons from the pandemic, it was disbanded by Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, the commission’s chair. Sachs alleged that several members had conflicts of interest that would bias them against the lab-origin hypothesis."
While he might well have a case for saying that, it doesn't actually address any of their arguments or evidence. And if we're going ad hominem, then who the fuck thought Jeffrey Sachs was an appropriate person to chair any such commission ?
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I am also a lifelong Conservative and Unionist.
Which is why I can't support the Kippers and associated swivel-eyed loons who took over the party after 2016
I hope I can vote Conservative again in the future
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
Or a wilful ignorance.
Or that he has deals going on in China so he needs to kiss arse.
Ukraine is turning the tide against "exhausted" Russian forces, the head of Britain's GCHQ intelligence agency will say in a speech on Tuesday. Despite the missile attacks on targets across Ukraine on Monday, Sir Jeremy Fleming will claim Moscow is running out of ammunition. He will say President Vladimir Putin's decision-making has proved "flawed".
All together now:
No. Shit. Sherlock.
Ok, but the fact he is saying this openly tells us much.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
The ERG is a busted flush. They have had their candidate - and she was worse than useless. She was dangerous.
They might be grumpy about it, but they could ultimately sulk into oblivion under Wallace, with Rishi back as Chancellor.
The MPs need to realise this is not about getting the Party sorted, it is about getting the country sorted. This PM and Chancellor are leading our credibility in international markets over a cliff edge. They have to be replaced. Two more years of cluelessness is just unthinkable.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I am *this* close to campaigning for Labour at the next election.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
You won't like me saying this, but the party's problem is Brexit. At least, the way the party spent decades seeing Europhobia as being the only 'true' Conservatism.
Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.
Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
Yes this has been my view for a while. Truss has realised that her growth plans are finished, and is going in to zombie mode, trying to cling on until the next election, which they will lose badly. Then again, events could ultimately intervene to make this strategy unsustainable.
I think a few more weeks of this and continued terrible polls are going to render things unsustainable.
On 31st (the fact it’s Halloween and nobody thought whether this was a good look for next day “slasher” headlines tells you everything you need to know about the inner turmoil in government), Kwasi is going to have to get up and announce significant spending cuts to get the budget through. There will be no upside to this.
It will set off another round of terrible headlines. Even if the markets stabilise.
The polls could even get worse.
If the Tories are not all having meetings right now trying to work out who a compromise successor will be then they are fools IMHO. This is going to play all the way up to Christmas (with winter also attracting negative headlines due to COL/possible energy crisis nobody is preparing us for) and beyond if they are not careful.
I honestly believe sticking with Liz and Kwasi could be existential for the Tories. As in, we could be looking at the Tories below 100 seats and Labour on 450+. That is not good for our democracy.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
Don't worry you made the right decision to support CON. But now CON is not very good as you, I and many other CON on here have worked out!
So it looks likely that we will have to support someone else or stay at home for the next GE but in the longer term CON will sort itself out. It has been here since 1832! (ish)
"The panel’s own history reflects the intensity of the debate. Originally convened as a task force of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, a wide-reaching effort to derive lessons from the pandemic, it was disbanded by Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, the commission’s chair. Sachs alleged that several members had conflicts of interest that would bias them against the lab-origin hypothesis."
While he might well have a case for saying that, it doesn't actually address any of their arguments or evidence. And if we're going ad hominem, then who the fuck thought Jeffrey Sachs was an appropriate person to chair any such commission ?
Their "arguments and evidence" seem to be a meta study, in a field where we know there's hugely biased studies out there. OP thought he was being funny with "part 137" but that seems to be the approach here - never mind the quality, just count 'em.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
Yes this has been my view for a while. Truss has realised that her growth plans are finished, and is going in to zombie mode, trying to cling on until the next election, which they will lose badly. Then again, events could ultimately intervene to make this strategy unsustainable.
Truss has gone gone from some crazed sugar rush to catatonic in a fortnight.
Anybody else really want to discover what the coming months have in store by way of mood swings?
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
The Conservative party could be interpreted as serving the interests of those with household wealth. The problem is firstly that they have become dangerously irresponsible with the nations finance in doing so, and secondly that they have lost their interest in social mobility and aspiration, which is necessary to sustain their position. It is becoming too hard to cope with for many of its natural supporters.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I am *this* close to campaigning for Labour at the next election.
In retrospect, I'd have much preferred two more years of sleaze and laziness under Boris than Truss's attempt to bankrupt the country within a month.
I suspect Boris would have broken something crucial eventually. The only difference is that he would have done it unintentionally because he was too lazy to do the work of governing, whereas this crowd are breaking things deliberately.
I think there should be another sindyref because the Scottish parliament as voted in by scottish residents wants there to be one, but I cant say the arguments trailed about a non binding referendum referred to the court are very convincing to me.
The justices might decide otherwise, but the whole attempt feels like a transparent stunt, if an understandable one when the government's strategy on the matter is to ignore it and play for time.
Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
Tarry wasn't in the shadow cabinet - junior role for buses. He got the Ilford South gig under dubious circumstances. He's a Corbynite. Starmer won't be losing any sleep.
What can you tell us about dubious circumstances?
Last minute selection backed by Momentum, after the guy who won tonight, who was a shoo-in back in 2019, became ineligible after a complaint of sexual harassment was made against him. He was, eventually, deemed entirely innocent. Rumour was that it was a stitch-up. Tarry lived in Brighton at the time, far from Ilford - Athwal was a long-standing Ilfordian.
Might not have been a stitch up per se, just the leadership taking advantage of an opening to parachute in a supporter.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
You won't like me saying this, but the party's problem is Brexit. At least, the way the party spent decades seeing Europhobia as being the only 'true' Conservatism.
Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.
Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
My constituency has shown that in microcosm. Last 3 MPs,
Peter LLoyd, Mark Hoban both middle of the road standard decent Conservatives
Then the local party chose someone, I suspect the decision was based mainly on her Brexit opinions.
Suella Braverman (nee Fernandes)
Brexit has done to the UK Tories what Trump has done to the US Republicans.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
Don't worry you made the right decision to support CON. But now CON is not very good as you, I and many other CON on here have worked out!
So it looks likely that we will have to support someone else or stay at home for the next GE but in the longer term CON will sort itself out. It has been here since 1832! (ish)
That's my belief, Pubman.
They are unlikely to win my vote but a democracy needs a decent opposition. A large part of the reason we have had such shockingly bad government under the Tories is that until very recently the Opposition hasn't been up to snuff.
"For whatever reason voters don’t seem to warm to Truss"
OGH proving once again he is the master of understatement and circumspection.
I think most of us could list several hundred reasons why the voters don't warm to Truss.
At a personal level I don't think she's especially disliked - I know people from various points of the spectrum who feel sorry for her, quite like her innocent smile and think she's in an impossible position. But nearly everyone thinks she's out of her depth.
I think Truss has a rather endearing goofy grin. But her judgement of what she she had political capital for is pretty darn bad.
Just had an email from my erstwhile local Cons party association, fresh from Conference; they have evidently forgotten to take me off the mailing list.
It includes the immortal line:
"Party members were keen to unite and fight the prospect of a Labour government, which would be disastrous for the country in so many ways."
We need to get shut of this "ruthless Tories" meme. It's utter nonsense. They tolerated May chucking away her majority for 2 years. And gave Bojo a yellow for Paterson and Partygate, which was at the very least, two yellows.
I don't think Truss is going anywhere because MPs could never agree on a successor and any such successor would simply be faced with internecine strife from another wing of the party, most likely the ERG ultras which is simply another way of wiping out the majority.
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
It could end in financial meltdown long before the election
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
You won't like me saying this, but the party's problem is Brexit. At least, the way the party spent decades seeing Europhobia as being the only 'true' Conservatism.
Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.
Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
My constituency has shown that in microcosm. Last 3 MPs,
Peter LLoyd, Mark Hoban both middle of the road standard decent Conservatives
Then the local party chose someone, I suspect the decision was based mainly on her Brexit opinions.
Suella Braverman (nee Fernandes)
Brexit has done to the UK Tories what Trump has done to the US Republicans.
And Johnson went along with it in the run-up to the 2019 election. If ever there was a case of jumping in front of the running crowd and shouting follow me….
And good morning one and all, fine bright morning here in North Essex.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
For the first time I'm now wondering if I've made a serious mistake with my (near) lifelong alliance to the Conservative Party.
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
I am also a lifelong Conservative and Unionist.
Which is why I can't support the Kippers and associated swivel-eyed loons who took over the party after 2016
I hope I can vote Conservative again in the future
Nicola Sturgeon on Karen White, "He is NOT a trans woman, but a manipulative sex offender seeking to access vulnerable women." Nicola Sturgeon, "As IF a man who wishes to sexually assault women would go to all the trouble of changing gender!"
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
KSA will be left, deliciously, to stew in its own juice as soon as the West no longer needs its oil.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
I see Mr. Eagles has been waving his ignorance around for everyone to see. Again.
Hannibal Barca caused untold woe. For over a decade.
But the big difference between him and Truss is that he did it to the enemy. Even when he was eventually defeated, thanks to Hanno more than anyone else [assuming I remember the name rightly], his next job was running Carthage.
They are unlikely to win my vote but a democracy needs a decent opposition. A large part of the reason we have had such shockingly bad government under the Tories is that until very recently the Opposition hasn't been up to snuff.
One of the advantages of PR is that there's a plausible route for some other party to step up if the 2nd party isn't doing an effective job of being the opposition -- which gives them an incentive to not degenerate into irrelevance and also a way out for the electorate if they do...
I think when the Tories lose power this time it’s going to take change far beyond what Cameron offered to get them back to an election winning outfit. Of course they could be helped or hindered by the Labour performance in government too, but there are serious things they need to address as a minimum: a return to sound money, an understanding of public sector worker’s concerns rather than being suspicious of them, an interests in the needs of all nations in the union, a good working relationship with Europe and a serious plan to spread opportunity and wealth (not the lip service of “levelling up”).
I suspect they’ve probably got at least 8-10 years out of power however. If not more depending on how much of a clanger they drop in their first LOTO (if they pick Suella add another 4 years on, at least).
Comments
I'd also argue that the SH/SS combo down in Texas *isn't* as well managed, or going as well as Musk promised.
There are several things that might go right for Truss over the next few months but they look very likely to be drowned out by things going not so well. In particular I think that the BoE will continue to increase base rates with consequential increases in mortgages. The idea that it is the government's job to keep your mortgage rate well below the current rate of inflation is a frankly bizarre one but consistent with the modern belief that governments can somehow protect us from economic threats (spoiler, they can't).
Between 1995 and 1997 the Tories ran things fairly well. In particular they had an excellent Chancellor who produced real results on the economy. None of it did a blind bit of good. The anhilation of 1997 was written in stone years before. So is the wipeout of 2024 (like all lost governments they will hang on to the last possible minute).
All of which is a typically long winded lawyers way of saying no.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/boe-s-market-calming-moves-can-only-go-so-far-as-yields-climb?sref=yMmXm5Iy
Excellent little summary, as usual, David.
Unless the economy started growing at 10% or something. Which isn’t going to happen. Statue of Venus growing arms and waving territory..
Ukraine is turning the tide against "exhausted" Russian forces, the head of Britain's GCHQ intelligence agency will say in a speech on Tuesday.
Despite the missile attacks on targets across Ukraine on Monday, Sir Jeremy Fleming will claim Moscow is running out of ammunition.
He will say President Vladimir Putin's decision-making has proved "flawed".
All together now:
No. Shit. Sherlock.
So the government with their growth agenda needs to face into the structural issues previous versions of this government have ignored:
High cost of housing in tourism areas. You can't "build more houses" without destroying these areas. But we could tax to death the second homes which lie empty much of the year
High cost of childcare. Plenty of people want to work but can't because wages don't cover childcare costs.
High cost of and lack of public transport - the infamous IDS visit up the valleys imploring local unemployed to take jobs in booming Cardiff. In bars. With no public transport to get them home or childcare.
Lack of migrant workers to fill the gaps. The "points-based immigration system" was supposed to enable us to bring in who we needed. Instead we just shut the door to the evil forrin and said "done".
Unless you know any elves, of course.
The emergency move came as it warned a sell-off of government bonds was a "material risk" to financial stability.
The Bank said it would buy a wider range of bonds to help "restore orderly market conditions".
On Monday, government borrowing costs rose sharply after the Bank increased the amount of bonds it was buying before the scheme ends on Friday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63211743
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army is training on Salisbury Plain. I wonder if they visit the cathedral on their days off.
Can’t see untrained conscripts doing much on a modern battlefield.
On thing that is going to be of interest in the post war Ukrainian memoirs is the range of types of forces and how they are employed. Some attacks are classic tank and infantry. Some are LRDG style rushes in heavily armed unarmoured vehicles. In some areas they are even using dune buggies armed with 0.5” machine guns and anti tank missiles.
The Ukrainian military seems to have embraced adaptation and flexibility in a way that is beyond most Western militaries.
Some political programs are shooting for the moon. This one is The Core, but an alternative script where the mission is to burrow the Tory % score into the earth and then stop the core so that everyone dies.
Which is another indication that the enemy is running out of weapons. @Yokes commented that intel suggested there might be a couple of weeks of yesterday’s scale of bombardments, which would be the militarily sensible course of action.
That this hasn’t happened, is suggestive of having insufficient resources to keep up any cadence of missile attack against Ukraine. The same comment is coming up from multiple commentators now, that the Russians are basically exhausted of (conventional) weapons, hence asking Belarus and North Korea for help.
A special note of thanks to Xi Jinping in China, who I suggested months ago would be the key to whether or not we ended up with WWIII. Thankfully, he’s decided against arming the Russians, and prefers to stay neutral.
It is therefore an utterly one-sided deal, giving the side that is badly losing a big win. And given Putin's desires are more than just Ukraine, it does nothing to guarantee peace in the future when he goes after Poland or the Baltics.
A pay cut for those on £15k pa in London.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/oct/11/london-school-uses-law-change-to-replace-striking-staff-with-agency-workers
Bombarding cities with missiles is ruinously expensive. The Nazis spent more than the Manhattan Project on the V2. And achieved the square root of nothing, The War of The Cities between Iran and Iraq was similarly useless.
Quite extraordinary story. Even @Leon has to be impressed by 60 million books.
Rod McKuen Was the Bestselling Poet in American History. What Happened?
He sold 60 million books and 100 million records. Why was he forgotten?
https://slate.com/culture/2022/10/rod-mckuen-best-selling-poet-songs-what-happened.html
...There’s a catch, though. He can’t do anything with it, because the people who own the rights to use the material are Edward Habib’s heirs. Habib died in 2018 without any children, and his relatives don’t seem to see what could be so important about all of this, and have been unable to agree on any kind of deal. Zax is the guardian of Rod McKuen’s legacy, but he can’t do anything to perpetuate that legacy.
He’s been trying to get the Library of Congress or some university archive to take them. No one wants the tapes, because Rod McKuen has no cultural profile, but he’ll never recover that profile unless someone uses the tapes. The most salable poet in American history, and now he can’t get anyone to give a shit....
Alone.
This could reopen questions in govt about immigration. https://twitter.com/skillsforcare/status/1579728551254757377
It could indeed be so for the Conservative party.
But have a cigar.
Why should all the Ukrainians in the conquered territory be sacrificed?
I really do not know what happens next but Truss and Kwarteng immediate resignations should be the minimum
The BoE's strictly time limited actions aren't creating market stability, they are feeding market panic to sell everything in a really short space of time to improve pension scheme liquidity.
(This is a statement of fact. Any implication on where he may be looking for the money is unintentional and purely coincidental. No pets or other animals were injured in the making of this post)
The only way it ends (with any hope of a rebuild) is electoral destruction, and probably many years of blaming each other for it after, so that's what I expect to happen.
I, for one, will really enjoy that day and seeing the House of Saud get their just desserts.
It says you need 😬 £62 billion 😬 a year in cuts to stabilise debt - 50% more than Osborne in 2010
How?
🥶 15% Whitehall cuts outside NHS / Defence
🥶Raise benefits by inflation
🥶Cut investment spending https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1579733705681436672/photo/1
“That the Bank of England has been forced to step in for a second day running to reassure markets shows the government's approach is not working, and creates renewed pressure for the Chancellor to reverse his Budget.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d9e46bb3-6bdd-416e-9ec6-e43b8af5fb30
No, I'm not a leftie or anything like that but I wonder if the institution is fundamentally corrupted and we need a new centre-right party to supersede it.
And if we're going ad hominem, then who the fuck thought Jeffrey Sachs was an appropriate person to chair any such commission ?
Which is why I can't support the Kippers and associated swivel-eyed loons who took over the party after 2016
I hope I can vote Conservative again in the future
They might be grumpy about it, but they could ultimately sulk into oblivion under Wallace, with Rishi back as Chancellor.
The MPs need to realise this is not about getting the Party sorted, it is about getting the country sorted. This PM and Chancellor are leading our credibility in international markets over a cliff edge. They have to be replaced. Two more years of cluelessness is just unthinkable.
I am *this* close to campaigning for Labour at the next election.
Anyone who was Eurosceptic got called Europhile because only Europhobes were truly anti-Europe. Vast amounts of talent were chucked out of the party, or discouraged from joining, because they were not seen as being strongly enough anti-Europe. This left a very weak talent pool, and we are reaping the consequences.
Europhobia is a madness that has destroyed the Conservative Party. For many, such as Bone or JRM, it is all that matters.
On 31st (the fact it’s Halloween and nobody thought whether this was a good look for next day “slasher” headlines tells you everything you need to know about the inner turmoil in government), Kwasi is going to have to get up and announce significant spending cuts to get the budget through. There will be no upside to this.
It will set off another round of terrible headlines. Even if the markets stabilise.
The polls could even get worse.
If the Tories are not all having meetings right now trying to work out who a compromise successor will be then they are fools IMHO. This is going to play all the way up to Christmas (with winter also attracting negative headlines due to COL/possible energy crisis nobody is preparing us for) and beyond if they are not careful.
I honestly believe sticking with Liz and Kwasi could be existential for the Tories. As in, we could be looking at the Tories below 100 seats and Labour on 450+. That is not good for our democracy.
So it looks likely that we will have to support someone else or stay at home for the next GE but in the longer term CON will sort itself out. It has been here since 1832! (ish)
Anybody else really want to discover what the coming months have in store by way of mood swings?
The justices might decide otherwise, but the whole attempt feels like a transparent stunt, if an understandable one when the government's strategy on the matter is to ignore it and play for time.
Could be fun...
Just getting up to speed. I see Coffey has said our pensions are safe.
Buy baked beans and a gun.
Surely you could have done more with “just deserts”?
Last 3 MPs,
Peter LLoyd,
Mark Hoban
both middle of the road standard decent Conservatives
Then the local party chose someone, I suspect the decision was based mainly on her Brexit opinions.
Suella Braverman (nee Fernandes)
Brexit has done to the UK Tories what Trump has done to the US Republicans.
They are unlikely to win my vote but a democracy needs a decent opposition. A large part of the reason we have had such shockingly bad government under the Tories is that until very recently the Opposition hasn't been up to snuff.
It includes the immortal line:
"Party members were keen to unite and fight the prospect of a Labour government, which would be disastrous for the country in so many ways."
Unless George Osborne us brought back as Chancellor.
And good morning one and all, fine bright morning here in North Essex.
That seems more important to you.
https://twitter.com/bindelj/status/1579736268879331330
I see Mr. Eagles has been waving his ignorance around for everyone to see. Again.
Hannibal Barca caused untold woe. For over a decade.
But the big difference between him and Truss is that he did it to the enemy. Even when he was eventually defeated, thanks to Hanno more than anyone else [assuming I remember the name rightly], his next job was running Carthage.
I suspect they’ve probably got at least 8-10 years out of power however. If not more depending on how much of a clanger they drop in their first LOTO (if they pick Suella add another 4 years on, at least).