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Is there any way back for the Truss Tories? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,221
edited October 2022 in General
imageIs there any way back for the Truss Tories? – politicalbetting.com

The voting intention polls over the last few weeks have been absolutely terrible for the Tories and their new leader Liz Truss. For whatever reason voters don’t seem to warm to Truss and the effect on the party could be catastrophic Even if there is a bit of an improvement the challenge facing the governing party is immense.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    She has until the local elections to turn it round
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034
    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    I’m surprised you’re that optimistic
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,172
    Liztopian nightmare :lol:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,462
    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
    But allocating passports is a reserved power. Never mind adding a Scottish tick mark.

    And it's not a British passport,but a UK one, to be pedantic. Quite an important distinction in Glasgow and places to the west of it, across the channel.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?

    My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.

    On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    QTWTAIN
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    Is Liz Truss the new Hannibal Barca?

    Won a few lucky victories but ultimately loses the war and sees her side wiped within a generation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,981
    With more than two years to go before the next election has to be held, anything could happen, including a recovery by Truss.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    🚨TIMES RADIO FOCUS GROUP KLAXON🚨

    @jamesjohnson252 in the chair, as swing voters give their verdict on the Truss government:

    "They're just coming across as chaotic... all the infighting. I don't think they've done anything at all to restore trust."

    11am, Tuesday, Times Radio https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1579527404389036034/photo/1

    Verdict on Truss:

    🗣️Unqualified for the role
    🗣️Will give her another half a year
    🗣️Damage has been done
    🗣️Not ready for the role
    🗣️Untrustworthy
    🗣️Early days to be criticising her
    🗣️Conservatives have to get their head out their arses

    11am, Tuesday, http://Times.Radio
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    FPT
    MattW said:



    What's Venstre?

    Are they the party of the Defenestrated?

    Do we have a Government in Sweden, yet?

    Venstre is the Liberals - centre-right in Denmark.

    Sweden: not yet - the centre-right are still haggling. Maybe this week.

    I'm on holiday in Copenhagen next week, looking forward to the massed banks of posters on every lamp post. I used as a child to think that the number of posters was an indication of how it was going, and got my dad to drive me round counting them. Sadly not - everyone has much the same number.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    Andy_JS said:

    With more than two years to go before the next election has to be held, anything could happen, including a recovery by Truss.

    Nah, you don't recover with fucking around with people's houses and mortgages.

    Thatcher went because of the poll tax and Theresa May never recovered after the dementia tax.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
    But allocating passports is a reserved power. Never mind adding a Scottish tick mark.

    And it's not a British passport,but a UK one, to be pedantic. Quite an important distinction in Glasgow and places to the west of it, across the channel.
    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option. And perhaps the Prince of Wales' feathers.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah, you don't recover with fucking around with people's houses and mortgages.

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1575419240592580608
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    No
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    If they leave it that long they’re probably screwed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Watching Goodfellas for the 3rd or 4th time.

    What a derivative loser Tarantino is, really.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨TIMES RADIO FOCUS GROUP KLAXON🚨

    @jamesjohnson252 in the chair, as swing voters give their verdict on the Truss government:

    "They're just coming across as chaotic... all the infighting. I don't think they've done anything at all to restore trust."

    11am, Tuesday, Times Radio https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1579527404389036034/photo/1

    Verdict on Truss:

    🗣️Unqualified for the role
    🗣️Will give her another half a year
    🗣️Damage has been done
    🗣️Not ready for the role
    🗣️Untrustworthy
    🗣️Early days to be criticising her
    🗣️Conservatives have to get their head out their arses

    11am, Tuesday, http://Times.Radio

    The first, however, is slightly unfair. Was any PM more qualified for the role than Brown, the de facto Deputy PM for ten years? Perhaps Callaghan, who held all three senior cabinet posts. Or Eden, who was groomed for the leadership from around 1935. Or Neville Chamberlain, heir apparent for twelve years and and PM de facto for six. Or Arthur Balfour, actually First Lord of the Treasury for the previous seven years.

    Number of elections these individuals won - zero.

    Number of successful PMs among them - also zero.

    You don't train to be PM. You do it, and find out if you're good at it.

    Unfortunately, Truss isn't good at it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,709
    Labour are 5-2 up at half time. The two Tory strikers that scored in the first half were subbed off. Labour look like scoring next the Tories haven’t recovered from an own goal, but 45mins is a long time to hold a lead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Eabhal said:

    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option.

    It's been in plain sight for over 300 years. The lion wearing the crown and the unicorn chained in it's place.
    "Rebelious Scots to crush" indeed.     https://twitter.com/dmallin/status/1579375711156334593/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    If they leave it that long they’re probably screwed.
    They are screwed anyway, it is just a matter of limiting the damage now
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
    But allocating passports is a reserved power. Never mind adding a Scottish tick mark.

    And it's not a British passport,but a UK one, to be pedantic. Quite an important distinction in Glasgow and places to the west of it, across the channel.
    The issue I’m flagging here: how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A nation state, or what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders and residency doesn’t it? So the argument is a vote like this one has to include all the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current, to be complete and assured.

    I’m offering two solutions to incorporating the dispora vote. Maybe there others I don’t know, I grew up on a farm and didn’t go to school.

    Scottish Passport. Test UK passport with Scottish tick mark in the courts.

    Secondly, how much of the dispora vote can you get registered as resident in Scotland? Even if they have to put their pregnant wife on a donkey and travel to Scotland to be counted?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    "For whatever reason voters don’t seem to warm to Truss"

    OGH proving once again he is the master of understatement and circumspection.

    I think most of us could list several hundred reasons why the voters don't warm to Truss.

    At a personal level I don't think she's especially disliked - I know people from various points of the spectrum who feel sorry for her, quite like her innocent smile and think she's in an impossible position. But nearly everyone thinks she's out of her depth.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,483
    Andy_JS said:

    With more than two years to go before the next election has to be held, anything could happen, including a recovery by Truss.

    It could, but short of a sucessful War With France, what will cause that recovery?

    Quiet competence just won't get noticed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option.

    It's been in plain sight for over 300 years. The lion wearing the crown and the unicorn chained in it's place.
    "Rebelious Scots to crush" indeed.     https://twitter.com/dmallin/status/1579375711156334593/photo/1
    Unicorns unchained would be an appropriate metaphor for the SNP's 2014 campaign.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
    But allocating passports is a reserved power. Never mind adding a Scottish tick mark.

    And it's not a British passport,but a UK one, to be pedantic. Quite an important distinction in Glasgow and places to the west of it, across the channel.
    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option. And perhaps the Prince of Wales' feathers.

    There's any amount of precedent establishing that Prince of Wales's is correct

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_of_Wales's_Regiment
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    IshmaelZ said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Carnyx said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I see the jocksperts are out in force. PB gold.

    If you can refrain from the usual Viking greeting of cranial cleaving for a moment, I have a question. Will the ref electorate be different next time? Will more of the Scottish diaspora be included in it?
    No. Impossible to define and to certify. It will have to be residents in Scotland. There is no other valid legal definition of a 'Scot' permitted by the UK. Other than birth as per Register Houes in Edinburgh, which is incomplete and which is useless as it includes diasporaics who cannot be listed or certified.

    It's not as if there is a Republic/Kingdom of Scotland passport. Which is rather the whole point.
    I’m not sure I agree. In UK elections there are expat vote from around the world, Spain, France, Tim Buck too, wherever he is living at mo, so consider the amount of 100% Scottish people living for work mainly in England alone - the reason why it’s important is how does the result feel complete and assured without the diaspora vote? A state, what makes a people, exists in more than mere current borders doesn’t it? So a vote like this has to include the Scottish people, wherever they are living and working at current.
    The expat vote is strictly time limited. Not like the French one. And IIRC it does not apply for the electorate for a referendum but only for that for the GE. There was no expat vote in 2014.


    Then create a Scottish passport in time for the ref?
    That would be UDI ...
    Nope. It would go to the courts. Having Scottish added to British passport would be accepted by the SC - they would be on tricky grounds regards all other dual nationality passports if they refused that. The Scottish are a people in their own right regardless of residency - even FIFA, ICC and World Rugby gets that.
    But allocating passports is a reserved power. Never mind adding a Scottish tick mark.

    And it's not a British passport,but a UK one, to be pedantic. Quite an important distinction in Glasgow and places to the west of it, across the channel.
    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option. And perhaps the Prince of Wales' feathers.

    There's any amount of precedent establishing that Prince of Wales's is correct

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_of_Wales's_Regiment
    Sorry
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,001
    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    What will you measure as the yardstick for success or failure?

    Vote share, seats or both?

    Last time it was 1300 losses and 28% of the vote. To go backwards, even slightly from that, would be awful. I could imagine a few gains from LDs and Residents in the south more than offset by big losses to Labour elsewhere.

    Labour also lost seats last time and only polled 28% as well so how do we measure success for Starmer?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    Jonathan said:

    Labour are 5-2 up at half time. The two Tory strikers that scored in the first half were subbed off. Labour look like scoring next the Tories haven’t recovered from an own goal, but 45mins is a long time to hold a lead.

    If it went to penalties, JRM wouldn't have a clue.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option.

    It's been in plain sight for over 300 years. The lion wearing the crown and the unicorn chained in it's place.
    "Rebelious Scots to crush" indeed.     https://twitter.com/dmallin/status/1579375711156334593/photo/1
    Unicorns unchained would be an appropriate metaphor for the SNP's 2014 campaign.
    Heh.

    The chain represents Scotland's ability to tame wild beasts or something like that. It's a sign of strength.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    What will you measure as the yardstick for success or failure?

    Vote share, seats or both?

    Last time it was 1300 losses and 28% of the vote. To go backwards, even slightly from that, would be awful. I could imagine a few gains from LDs and Residents in the south more than offset by big losses to Labour elsewhere.

    Labour also lost seats last time and only polled 28% as well so how do we measure success for Starmer?
    Further losses from that, Labour will make big gains regardless on current polling
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,482
    IshmaelZ said:

    Watching Goodfellas for the 3rd or 4th time.

    What a derivative loser Tarantino is, really.

    Goodfellas is a 1990 film and watching any film once a decade, if that, hardly seems excessive.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,709
    Watched HoD. Paddy Constantine was great, again. Whatever your views on the show (it’s popcorn to me) he really is terrific.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Jonathan said:

    Watched HoD. Paddy Constantine was great, again. Whatever your views on the show (it’s popcorn to me) he really is terrific.

    He is good. And it really does improve notably from episode 4 on. Thank God. Because it is awful up to there

    Did they bring in new writers?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 888
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    Passports should have the Scottish version of the royal arms as an option.

    It's been in plain sight for over 300 years. The lion wearing the crown and the unicorn chained in it's place.
    "Rebelious Scots to crush" indeed.     https://twitter.com/dmallin/status/1579375711156334593/photo/1
    Unicorns unchained would be an appropriate metaphor for the SNP's 2014 campaign.
    Heh.

    The chain represents Scotland's ability to tame wild beasts or something like that. It's a sign of strength.
    I went to Westminster with my girlfriend (Scottish) once, and saw the big crest they have there. We both noticed, for the first time that the Unicorn is chained and she was a bit miffed. Looking into it later, I was relieved that it had also been chained pre-Union.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Interesting thread with the (I think true) observation that collaboration is more often than not situational, rather than a matter of conviction.

    https://twitter.com/bmilakovsky/status/1579566146537549825
    … Building on my piece on collaborators and sympathizers in #Russia'n occupied territories of #Ukraine for @ForeignAffairs, I wanted to share seemingly simple but very important thought from a local administrator in #Luhansk region who fled occupation. 1/11
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    Watching Goodfellas for the 3rd or 4th time.

    What a derivative loser Tarantino is, really.

    As far back as I can remember I always wanted to be a Scorsese.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,482
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    The next hurdle, long before the locals, is the Chancellor's next budget-type thing in six or seven weeks. Fall there and LizT is out. After that come any by-elections from Boris's peerages list (or his encounter with the Privileges Committee).

    What might help Truss is lower than feared gas prices and a World Cup win.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Trump seems to use lawyers as he apparently uses shell companies - to obfuscate responsibility.

    Trump lawyer told to certify Mar-a-Lago document search she did not conduct
    Christina Bobb told justice department on Friday that she signed supposedly complete list of documents at direction of another lawyer, Evan Corcoran
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/10/trump-lawyer-christina-bobb-mar-a-lago-certify-documents
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    dixiedean said:

    We need to get shut of this "ruthless Tories" meme.
    It's utter nonsense. They tolerated May chucking away her majority for 2 years. And gave Bojo a yellow for Paterson and Partygate, which was at the very least, two yellows.

    If they were ruthless, Truss would have been out last week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    edited October 2022
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    The next hurdle, long before the locals, is the Chancellor's next budget-type thing in six or seven weeks. Fall there and LizT is out. After that come any by-elections from Boris's peerages list (or his encounter with the Privileges Committee).

    What might help Truss is lower than feared gas prices and a World Cup win.
    She won't be, if she survived the mini budget she will survive a mere financial statement. The locals will be the big test.
    It was after poor local elections ultimately that both May and Boris were removed within 2 months.

    Gas prices are affected by the Ukraine war, the support package is key for that. A football world cup win I doubt makes much difference, most football supporters vote Labour anyway outside of Chelsea. A rugby world cup win next autumn might boost the Tories as most rugby union supporters vote Conservative if she has survived that long
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    edited October 2022
    Liz has always said that she was prepared to be unpopular, and she seems to want to be judged on 'deeds not words' - her previous political successes have been based on grinding out good results (trade deals) in a workmanlike fashion whilst not being so good at the presentational side.

    So the question is, are there enough opportunities between now and the next GE for:
    1. Things to go well, and
    2. For Liz Truss and her Government to be associated with that success.

    I don't think anyone would argue that that's not a tall order. Even if things do go well, 1997 springs to mind, where the Tories had actually done pretty well on the economy, but still got drubbed.

    Opportunities are:
    -Sort out the small boats. This is actually a tantalisingly close one given that even the rumour of Rwanda did affect the boat situation (though the effect was to increase the bargaining power of the migrants so they paid less for their passage). Actually putting in place a genuine system could be revolutionary and provide a contrast with Labour
    -Get lucky on fracking or score another energy success. The Cumbria coal mine should be OK'd yesterday. Tidal would be another very visible feelgood story on energy.
    -Manages to identify her Government in some as yet unforeseen way with an increase in first time home ownership a la 'right to buy' or in a smaller way, 'help to buy'. No idea how this happens. I'd suggest she taxes developers for not building on their plots, but not sure Truss would see that as permissible given her pro-business stance
    -Significant highly visible business sets up a big base in Britain. Tesla or similar.
    -Sorts out Northern Ireland trade. I think this one is tantalisingly possible too. The EU may want to try to wait Truss out and deal with the sock puppet instead.
    -TPCCPT (may be spelled wrong). This should happen and will be the culmination of good work by Truss in previous roles.
    -Economy grows fast and targets are met - but there must be some sort of tangible evidence or 'feeling' of growth
    -Combination of enterprise zones/freeports results in some new jobs and noticeable economic activity

    If she's very, very lucky (and works very hard) some or even many of those will happen, and she'll need to get her face all over them.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    HYUFD said:



    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    If they leave it that long they’re probably screwed.
    They are screwed anyway, it is just a matter of limiting the damage now
    Agreed.
    In this case, I meant potentially stuck with her if they don’t wield the knife now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
  • ajbajb Posts: 148
    The conservative party is in such dire straits that a number of previously unlikely exit strategies for tory MPs might be in play,as well as the 'change the leader' one:

    a) Cross the floor to Labour. There are often one or two MPs that cross but I can't see Starmer allowing large numbers to do this.

    b) start a new party of milder conservatives, a mirror of the SDP. Doesn't usually go well.

    That leaves:

    c) Cross the floor to the Lib Dems. theoretically Ed Davy, with only 15 MPs should be even more wary of this, but as we saw in the coalition, the allure of power is strong. He has to be considering how to take advantage if, after all this time, there is finally a realignment of the UK party system. It's not completely implausible for there to be a stampede of non-headbanger tory voters into the LD camp, but currently the LDs are politically invisible as the 4th party in parliament; getting really limited coverage . A couple of major defections (not just the usual chancers who just want to save their jobs), and bulking out the PLDP with some of the more sane tory MPs could be just the ticket - a win win scenario for both the 'left' of the conservatives and the LDs.

    Would totally piss off his activist base, of course. But when has that ever mattered?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    edited October 2022
    AlistairM said:

    The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?

    My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.

    On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.

    I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?

    Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.

    https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1579436851517329409?t=ksYrUEr4SoWYby4E77wE7Q&s=19
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Hello

    Isn't the end of October the key date? Interested in what the financial experts here think. But aren't we in the middle of a sort of 2008 crisis right now? The government seems desperate to calm the markets and appoint Treasury experts so isn't this a sign that they are really worried?


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,690
    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    She and Kwarteng need to resign now
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    RunDeep said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Hello

    Isn't the end of October the key date? Interested in what the financial experts here think. But aren't we in the middle of a sort of 2008 crisis right now? The government seems desperate to calm the markets and appoint Treasury experts so isn't this a sign that they are really worried?


    There are financial experts here?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    It’s still the un repaired damage from the last one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,690
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    How on earth can it lead to civil war as civil war is happening now and by the end of this month the bond markets will have destroyed mortgage holders hopes and aspirations all in the name of the conservative party
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?

    My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.

    On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.

    I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?

    Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.

    https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1579436851517329409?t=ksYrUEr4SoWYby4E77wE7Q&s=19
    Yes, it is important


    "A known Belarussian 🇧🇾 source tells me:

    “Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"


    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1579504475202781184?s=20&t=rQhH-wpFSL-W-B43bC_QOA

    It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there

    Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    edited October 2022
    Last thread I mentioned a Scottish company that rents out containerized power generator (i.e. mini power stations that are the size of a TEU). It's called Aggreko, and I suspect that - in the event of serious power shortages in Kiev - they would be able to lease a few hundred.

    (They do a lot of work around natural disasters, so this is very much their thing.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited October 2022
    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
    I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    MoonRabbit said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    It’s still the un repaired damage from the last one.
    Oh right, people have just got round to reading it have they?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,485
    edited October 2022
    World Tonight.
    "Election rallies in Taiwan are unlike election rallies anywhere else in the world."
    I can absolutely concur. They are summat to see.
    Rupert Winfield-Hayes reporting. He used to read the weather on ICRT. The only English language radio station when I lived there.

    It was insufferably hot and unbelievably sweaty in Summer. With cataclysmic thunderstorms.
    Chilly drizzle in Winter.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    edited October 2022
    RunDeep said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Hello

    Isn't the end of October the key date? Interested in what the financial experts here think. But aren't we in the middle of a sort of 2008 crisis right now? The government seems desperate to calm the markets and appoint Treasury experts so isn't this a sign that they are really worried?


    1) They don't need to listen to Treasury civil servants. Advisers advise, etc. It doesn't really help with their credibility, imo, especially if they plough on in full knowledge of what the impact on the public finances will be.

    2) The OBR publish their independent analysis on 31 Oct. That will be of interest.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Whatever your emphasis, this is plainly a total humiliation for the left. Only three years ago Momentum’s Jon Lansman acted as NEC handmaiden for Tarry’s 11th hour selection. Now their fix has been unpicked — by Starmer allies deploying tools Corbyn spent decades campaigning for. https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1579584892094263296
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    IshmaelZ said:

    Watching Goodfellas for the 3rd or 4th time.

    What a derivative loser Tarantino is, really.

    No kidding: apparently, he's resorted to begging on the streets of Los Angeles.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    rcs1000 said:

    Last thread I mentioned a Scottish company that rents out containerized power generator (i.e. mini power stations that are the size of a TEU). It's called Aggreko

    Used them more than once
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736

    It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    RunDeep said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Hello

    Isn't the end of October the key date? Interested in what the financial experts here think. But aren't we in the middle of a sort of 2008 crisis right now? The government seems desperate to calm the markets and appoint Treasury experts so isn't this a sign that they are really worried?


    Today's slide in Gilt rates demonstrates that they failed to fix the crisis which continues on. They will not make the end of October without further market interventions and further policy capitulations
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    On the upside, if Putin wins the war by attacking from the north, there is no reason for him to go nuclear

    So there's that. Bit shit for Ukraine tho
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    MoonRabbit said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
    I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
    Tarry wasn't in the shadow cabinet - junior role for buses. He got the Ilford South gig under dubious circumstances. He's a Corbynite. Starmer won't be losing any sleep.
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 34
    MoonRabbit said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
    I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
    Won't go down well with Starmer's deputy either, will it? Perhaps he can find another seat?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Tuesday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Tax cuts will deal ‘£60bn blow to public services’ “. #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1579589320226533376/photo/1
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    edited October 2022
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has until the local elections to turn it round

    Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
    MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
    The next hurdle, long before the locals, is the Chancellor's next budget-type thing in six or seven weeks. Fall there and LizT is out. After that come any by-elections from Boris's peerages list (or his encounter with the Privileges Committee).

    What might help Truss is lower than feared gas prices and a World Cup win.
    Next non budget type thing Brought forward to Hallowe’en today.

    Boris peerages can’t happen till the next election called, by order of Truss on King Charles (he has to obey her)

    All of a sudden there is a lot more upward pressure on inflation from variety different sources - government sucessfully negotiated one striking Union to accept mere 15% rise today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited October 2022
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736

    It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
    They cut oil production: to raise prices
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    6-4, 6-4, 7-5
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 34
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    We need to get shut of this "ruthless Tories" meme.
    It's utter nonsense. They tolerated May chucking away her majority for 2 years. And gave Bojo a yellow for Paterson and Partygate, which was at the very least, two yellows.

    If they were ruthless, Truss would have been out last week.
    It's true comparatively though. They're a lot more ruthless than Labour.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider:
    1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry
    2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts
    3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,350
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736

    It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
    Some of the rationale is set out here.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/09/the-u-s-has-leverage-over-saudi-arabia-its-time-to-use-it-00061082
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    Northern_Al said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
    I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
    Tarry wasn't in the shadow cabinet - junior role for buses. He got the Ilford South gig under dubious circumstances. He's a Corbynite. Starmer won't be losing any sleep.
    What can you tell us about dubious circumstances?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,690
    kyf_100 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
    Bloomberg comment that neither the BOE or the Treasury have assuaged the markets which are prediction a near bloodbath

    Hence why Truss/ Kwarteng resignations should be demanded by their mps and now
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Labour source continues: “Sam Tarry will now act like a pound-shop Donald Trump and claim the vote was rigged. Luckily the Labour Party has shut the door on conspiracy theorist cranks.” 2/2
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1579590015885414400
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    kyf_100 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
    Quite.

    Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.

    Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.

    BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.

    What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last thread I mentioned a Scottish company that rents out containerized power generator (i.e. mini power stations that are the size of a TEU). It's called Aggreko

    Used them more than once
    To power all your non stop PB posting?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,485
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
    Quite.

    Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.

    Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.

    BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.

    What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
    It's being hung round the neck of the Conservative Party.
    Because. 12 years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    This is being shared on Labour WhatsApp groups in light of Sam Tarry’s deselection. https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1579591533824999424/photo/1
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    MoonRabbit said:

    Northern_Al said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking - Jas Athwal has beaten Sam Tarry

    Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
    I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
    Tarry wasn't in the shadow cabinet - junior role for buses. He got the Ilford South gig under dubious circumstances. He's a Corbynite. Starmer won't be losing any sleep.
    What can you tell us about dubious circumstances?
    Last minute selection backed by Momentum, after the guy who won tonight, who was a shoo-in back in 2019, became ineligible after a complaint of sexual harassment was made against him. He was, eventually, deemed entirely innocent. Rumour was that it was a stitch-up. Tarry lived in Brighton at the time, far from Ilford - Athwal was a long-standing Ilfordian.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss is shelving Michael Gove's plans to end no-fault evictions, which were due to be introduced in this Parliamentary session

    The Times has been told that they are not considered a priority & could be killed off entirely, despite being a manifesto commitment
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1579586149999181824
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited October 2022
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
    Quite.

    Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.

    Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.

    BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.

    What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
    Mate, it's over. The Tories are finished for 5 years, probably 10

    And I am someone who quite often agrees with you

    Policy doesn't matter. The brand is ruined
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    Nigelb said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736

    It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
    Some of the rationale is set out here.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/09/the-u-s-has-leverage-over-saudi-arabia-its-time-to-use-it-00061082
    Oh, it's that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive:

    Liz Truss is shelving Michael Gove's plans to end no-fault evictions, which were due to be introduced in this Parliamentary session

    The Times has been told that they are not considered a priority & could be killed off entirely, despite being a manifesto commitment
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1579586149999181824

    That should make it easier for the Tories to evict Truss, then - not that they couldn't find enough faults anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?

    My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.

    On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.

    I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?

    Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.

    https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1579436851517329409?t=ksYrUEr4SoWYby4E77wE7Q&s=19
    Yes, it is important


    "A known Belarussian 🇧🇾 source tells me:

    “Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"


    https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1579504475202781184?s=20&t=rQhH-wpFSL-W-B43bC_QOA

    It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there

    Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
    Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.

    I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.

    I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,928
    Leon said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tuesday's FT: Borrowing costs soar again as BoE and chancellor fail to calm markets #TomorrowsPapersToday #FinancialTimes #FT https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1579562446921994240/photo/1

    Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
    Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
    Quite.

    Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.

    Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.

    BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.

    What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
    Mate, it's over. The Tories are finished for 5 years, probably 10

    And I am someone who quite often agrees with you

    Policy doesn't matter. The brand is ruined
    I don't post hoping people will be influenced politically by my opinions. I just post as I find.

    In any case, I don't agree.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,724
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests.
    https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736

    It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
    they want the religious fundamentalists to win the midterms
This discussion has been closed.