She has until the local elections to turn it round
She and Kwarteng need to resign now
No, I think Hyufd is calling this one right, Big G, and if you are thinking of betting on the outcome you should not be so dismissive and pay attention to what he is telling you.
There would be a disastrous civil war within the party if Truss were forced out so soon after being elected. The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt, and that she wasn't being given a fair chance. You can understand that, no matter how much you may dislike the idea of a PM and Party Leader being foisted on us by the Tory Party membership.
What's more, it's not like there is some saviour standing by ready to sort out the mess. Hyufd has suggested elsewhere that a Wallace/Sunak leadership would limit the damage better than most, and I agree, but we are talking damage limitation here, not winning the next GE or even getting close to it. Personally I think that given a fair wind those two might just enable 200 or so Tory MPs to retain their seat but even that depends on skilful management as well as luck.
The first thing that needs to be managed is the timing. Stick them in now and they won't have a prayer. Wait until the May Locals and maybe they have a chance. It will certainly give the Party the opportunity to say that she had her chance and it simply wasn't working and that in itself will help legitimise the successor(s).
Like Hyufd, I have my doubts about whether the Party is wise enough to tread this difficult path, and there are pitfalls which could make it futile anyway. I am far from sure, for example, that Wallace and Sunak would go along with it. No matter. It seems the best plan to me. Let Truss and Kwasi bear all the odium of the economic bad news that is coming along and then clear them out. Get a couple of solid performers to replace them in May and hold tight, maintain discipline, and pray that enough Tories make it through the next GE to form a decent opposition.
It might not work, but it is a credible plan. Most others I hear of run the risk that the next LOTO will be a SNP member, or, perish the thought, a LibDem.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
4. None of the above. Tarry wanders off into the sunset, with or without Ange.
The Tories are in the position of a car salesman who, 3 years ago, sold you quite a dodgy car that in the end violently broke down on the M5, as a door fell off
Also, this guy fucked your dog last summer, and you have very recently discovered a video of him doing that
Now he's trying to sell you a new car. The car looks weird and has a faintly distasteful smell. But he's really doing his best to sell it, and he's got a reasonable patter, "sorry about the last car and the whole door thing, but this one is really a bargain, trust me"
But all the time he is saying this you are thinking. "I've seen a video. Of you. Fucking my dog"
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It's being hung round the neck of the Conservative Party. Because. 12 years.
I would find that more acceptable. What irritates me is the 'Can't Sunak save us?' brand of dickless Tory that thinks the man who played a bigger role than anyone else in getting us here is the solution to anything.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
It really was. And a signal of shifting power
The West is in relative decline but we do not have to accept defeat. We still have plenty going for us. We are more attractive societies, for a start. See Iran right now
I am not yet persuaded Ukraine is the sacrificial altar on which we should finally test this
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
She has until the local elections to turn it round
She and Kwarteng need to resign now
No, I think Hyufd is calling this one right, Big G, and if you are thinking of betting on the outcome you should not be so dismissive and pay attention to what he is telling you.
There would be a disastrous civil war within the party if Truss were forced out so soon after being elected. The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt, and that she wasn't being given a fair chance. You can understand that, no matter how much you may dislike the idea of a PM and Party Leader being foisted on us by the Tory Party membership.
What's more, it's not like there is some saviour standing by ready to sort out the mess. Hyufd has suggested elsewhere that a Wallace/Sunak leadership would limit the damage better than most, and I agree, but we are talking damage limitation here, not winning the next GE or even getting close to it. Personally I think that given a fair wind those two might just enable 200 or so Tory MPs to retain their seat but even that depends on skilful management as well as luck.
The first thing that needs to be managed is the timing. Stick them in now and they won't have a prayer. Wait until the May Locals and maybe they have a chance. It will certainly give the Party the opportunity to say that she had her chance and it simply wasn't working and that in itself will help legitimise the successor(s).
Like Hyufd, I have my doubts about whether the Party is wise enough to tread this difficult path, and there are pitfalls which could make it futile anyway. I am far from sure, for example, that Wallace and Sunak would go along with it. No matter. It seems the best plan to me. Let Truss and Kwasi bear all the odium of the economic bad news that is coming along and then clear them out. Get a couple of solid performers to replace them in May and hold tight, maintain discipline, and pray that enough Tories make it through the next GE to form a decent opposition.
It might not work, but it is a credible plan. Most others I hear of run the risk that the next LOTO will be a SNP member, or, perish the thought, a LibDem.
All true, but it depends on Truss promising to not make things worse in the months remaining to her. And then keeping that promise.
Even if she is willing to do the first, she might not be capable of doing the second.
The next few days in Ukraine will be revealing. Does Russia have enough munitions to continue their indiscriminate attacks? It has been relatively quiet in on the frontlines in the last few days, does it remain so?
My gut feel for the first is that they don't enough many missiles left. They seemed to have cobbled together whatever they could find to launch these attacks. Russia has 55 Tu-95 bombers yet apparently only 2 of them were in the air launching cruise missiles.
On the frontlines I think it may take a little longer for the Ukrainians to pause for breath before the next push. I don't think many supplies will be making it over the Kerch bridge for a while putting the Kherson front at greater risk for the Russians. They can't wait too long though as from some videos I've seen the mud is starting.
I have been wondering what is going on in Belarus. Plans for invasion or just a ruse to distract the UKR into deploying troops away from critical fronts?
Thus is an interesting account. T72A tanks coming out of storage and being shipped out of Belarus, seemingly to the Donbas front.
“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”"
It is pretty obvious now. Putin is not going to throw his 300,000 new mobilised soldiers into a losing war in SE Ukraine. They will simply die there
Instead he is going to invade Ukraine again, from the north, alongside Belarus. Aiming straight for Kyiv. Meanwhile his missiles (if he has enough) will rain down on Uke infrastructure
Except the tanks shown are leaving Belarus.
I wonder if the conscript are being sent to Belarus, so the regular forces can be freed up for more critical fronts. Russia is desperate for troops.
I think a second invasion from Belarus would be defeated more quickly than the first. Not least because the Belarusians don't want to fight.
Belarus joining the war could be a turning point but not in a good way for Moscow.
The Belarusian government’s hold over it’s people is shaky to start with and add some battlefield losses to that and it could re-ignite the protests. Putin doesn’t have the forces to quash any uprising, reserved as they are for Ukraine. If the Belarusian government falls the new leaders are likely to turn their back on Russia, sensing weakness. Russia cannot fight both Ukraine and Belarus.
Similarly the contagion could spread, just like the late 80s. Not just to Moscow, but also to all those pesky provinces of the Russian Federation that kinda fancy their independence.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Another internal victory for Starmer, and Wes Streeting who strongly backed Athwal. Tarry expected to win, I believe.
I thought Tarry looked and sounded the part to be honest. I don’t think this is a good look for Starmer at all. He was Starmer pick for his cabinet not long ago, is Team Starmer butchering Tarry’s political career to death not overkill for the mistake Tarry made?
Tarry wasn't in the shadow cabinet - junior role for buses. He got the Ilford South gig under dubious circumstances. He's a Corbynite. Starmer won't be losing any sleep.
What can you tell us about dubious circumstances?
Last minute selection backed by Momentum, after the guy who won tonight, who was a shoo-in back in 2019, became ineligible after a complaint of sexual harassment was made against him. He was, eventually, deemed entirely innocent. Rumour was that it was a stitch-up. Tarry lived in Brighton at the time, far from Ilford - Athwal was a long-standing Ilfordian.
That does sound the makings of what really went on tonight. Dish best eaten cold.
Tarry did strike me as genuine in what he stood for and made of stern stuff.
It would be dum politics for Starmer to have nothing but two fingers to the party’s union pay masters, and be incapable of using and working with the Union backed Sam Tarrys?
"This idea that you just kick all the doors down and dispense with orthodoxy is possibly over"
The Conservative chair of the Treasury select committee Mel Stride praises the chancellor for reneging on the 45p tax cut, but says he may need to go further
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It's being hung round the neck of the Conservative Party. Because. 12 years.
I would find that more acceptable. What irritates me is the 'Can't Sunak save us?' brand of dickless Tory that thinks the man who played a bigger role than anyone else in getting us here is the solution to anything.
Spot on. It isn't just Sunak. It's Cameron, Osbourne, May, Boris. Labour will be worse has stretched credulity beyond breaking.
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Voters do not need to treat the Tories and their rules with anything other than contempt though
Thems the rules
Sure, and they are showing that right now, but we're looking at the real consequences of further mismanagement from the Blue team. It could easily become an extinction event.
All I'm doing (and I don't get paid for this) is indicating what their best route out of the mess may be. You may not agree, but you should at least pause for a moment when leftish PtP and rightish Hyufd sing from the same hymn sheet.
Anyway it's past my bed time. Nite all. Maybe chat again in the morning.
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It's being hung round the neck of the Conservative Party. Because. 12 years.
I would find that more acceptable. What irritates me is the 'Can't Sunak save us?' brand of dickless Tory that thinks the man who played a bigger role than anyone else in getting us here is the solution to anything.
Spot on. It isn't just Sunak. It's Cameron, Osbourne, May, Boris. Labour will be worse has stretched credulity beyond breaking.
But not Truss, because she has actually recognised that that lot were in the business of putting a different face on national decline, and is setting about trying to reverse that decline. Starmer isn't going to do that. The man has all the spine of a sea anemone.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Thank goodness that we have been prudent with our natural gas reserves, ignoring those that called for a "dash for gas" for power generation, while at the same time investing in our coal industry and a new fleet of supercritical coal fired power stations that are poised to be fitted with carbon capture.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Thank goodness that we have been prudent with our natural gas reserves, ignoring those that called for a "dash for gas" for power generation, while at the same time investing in our coal industry and a new fleet of supercritical coal fired power stations that are poised to be fitted with carbon capture.
What might have been...
Goodnight all.
Still could be.
There's a planning restriction on that Cumbrian coal mine that says they can only get a certain amount out a year - I say restriction be damned.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Fungible. As you often say
Is price of fungible commodity going through roof really an example of Fungibility?
Fungibility is the ability of a good or asset to be readily interchanged for another of like kind. Like goods and assets that are not interchangeable, such as owned cars and houses, are non-fungible.
This is example of world wide commodity inflation?
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Some kind of coup in Venezuela would be convenient...
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
If Putin can keep this up for 2-3 weeks I wonder if he could do semi-permanent damage to Uke's infra
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
It should now be obvious that the patterns of market turbulence don't accord with the markets 'still being unconvinced' by Truss and Kwarteng's fiscal policies. They accord with the bank flogging off Government debt, stopping flogging it off, and then trying to start again. It would reassure the markets if the BOE stopped selling indefinitely until conditions change.
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Anti-democrat, heal thyself.
I think it's time for us to accept that Russia gets all of Europe. From Vladivostok to Lisbon. Somewhat shit for Brussels and Paris but then they were wankers over Brexit
Quid pro quo: Putin leaves the US and UK alone otherwise we nuke him and kill him, likewise Australia etc. So then we divide the world into the Russophere, the Anglosphere, and the Sinosphere, and we proceed from there
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
If Putin can keep this up for 2-3 weeks I wonder if he could do semi-permanent damage to Uke's infra
I presumed this was a 1-2 day affair
He hit power infrastructure across Ukraine while his forces were still trying to take Kyiv, so this isn't an unprecedented escalation.
E.g. this report from May about three power stations in Lviv being hit by missiles:
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
If Putin can keep this up for 2-3 weeks I wonder if he could do semi-permanent damage to Uke's infra
I presumed this was a 1-2 day affair
Apparently the Ukrainians are planning for 2-3 weeks of stand off strikes. Could be balls but thats what I've heard.
Yes they could do damage to Ukrainian infrastructure such as power and physical communications routes, however, few questions for the Russians.
1. Is that the aim or is it just causing fear and basic wrecking of the place? Modern airforces do this stuff at night generally, Russia did it during daylight hours, you assume just to get the terror value 2. Have they got the kit to maintain that tempo of stand off strikes in the 20 to 30 launches a day region for that long? Open question, that. 3. Do they actually know how to hit anything? Their record so far of hitting high value military targets is not great and they seem unable to destroy any logistics in transit operations. Its remarkable how little they have been able to strike from the air at night against mobile targets
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Anti-democrat, heal thyself.
I think it's time for us to accept that Russia gets all of Europe. From Vladivostok to Lisbon. Somewhat shit for Brussels and Paris but then they were wankers over Brexit
Quid pro quo: Putin leaves the US and UK alone otherwise we nuke him and kill him, likewise Australia etc. So then we divide the world into the Russophere, the Anglosphere, and the Sinosphere, and we proceed from there
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
If Putin can keep this up for 2-3 weeks I wonder if he could do semi-permanent damage to Uke's infra
I presumed this was a 1-2 day affair
Apparently the Ukrainians are planning for 2-3 weeks of stand off strikes. Could be balls but thats what I've heard.
Yes they could do damage to Ukrainian infrastructure such as power and physical communications routes, however, few questions for the Russians.
1. Is that the aim or is it just causing fear and basic wrecking of the place? Modern airforces do this stuff at night generally, Russia did it during daylight hours, you assume just to get the terror value 2. Have they got the kit to maintain that tempo of stand off strikes in the 20 to 30 launches a day region for that long? Open question, that. 3. Do they actually know how to hit anything? Their record so far of hitting high value military targets is not great and they seem unable to destroy any logistics in transit operations. Its remarkable how little they have been able to strike from the air at night against mobile targets
You answered question one in question three. They can't hit moving targets at night, so they've gone for static targets in daylight.
I have Nevada as a narrow Republican gain, Pennsylvania as a narrow Dem gain, and Georgia too close to call. (I think the Dems hang on in AZ, and the Republicans in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.)
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
It should now be obvious that the patterns of market turbulence don't accord with the markets 'still being unconvinced' by Truss and Kwarteng's fiscal policies. They accord with the bank flogging off Government debt, stopping flogging it off, and then trying to start again. It would reassure the markets if the BOE stopped selling indefinitely until conditions change.
You think the BoE acting independent from government on last weeks sticking plaster plan? Really? It was likely divised in the Treasury in zoom calls with the bank.
You think it’s the banks actions spooking the markets, not the government sums failing to add up? Really?
You think the government have made no mistakes at all? Really?
Everyone else in the universe, even the ectoplasm living on planet Smith 4b known as the 2nd most right wing bio form in the universe admitted Truss has made mistakes, even Telegraph columnists the number 1 most right wing bio form in the universe have admitted Truss has made mistakes, everyone except you Lucky - you have to be different don’t you?
One obvious mistake was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets getting spooked, and market concerns for sums to add up have yet to be properly addressed by the government, a sticking plaster was put on last week, taken off the bleeding has started. What’s wrong with that argument?
The other obvious mistake was borrowing a quarter of a trillion to buck a market against all the rest of this new governments messaging and ideology. It’s not really them, why are they pushing on with a Starmer policy that’s very antithesis of what they believe in? That Labour Policy thinking also spooked the markets, and completely unnecessary, the alternative option of variable price cap is out there ready to be used by the government.
That’s the two obvious mistakes imo, you really should concede.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Some kind of coup in Venezuela would be convenient...
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Fungible. As you often say
Is price of fungible commodity going through roof really an example of Fungibility?
Fungibility is the ability of a good or asset to be readily interchanged for another of like kind. Like goods and assets that are not interchangeable, such as owned cars and houses, are non-fungible.
This is example of world wide commodity inflation?
Power generators are economically rational. If it's cheaper to generate a MWh of electricity from coal rather than gas, then they'll generate it from coal.
And the rising price of gas has made coal much more attractive - they are (to an extent) fungible.
The end of year Newcastle* coal contract is just under $400/tonne - which is up about 8x from its pre-invasion lows.
So if we'd only had coal generation, we'd have been almost as f*cked as if we'd only had gas.
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Wouldn’t the Russians get more value for money using this resource in the front line area’s, such as hitting advancing columns and their supply lines, and their big field guns?
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
It should now be obvious that the patterns of market turbulence don't accord with the markets 'still being unconvinced' by Truss and Kwarteng's fiscal policies. They accord with the bank flogging off Government debt, stopping flogging it off, and then trying to start again. It would reassure the markets if the BOE stopped selling indefinitely until conditions change.
You think the BoE acting independent from government on last weeks sticking plaster plan? Really? It was likely divised in the Treasury in zoom calls with the bank.
You think it’s the banks actions spooking the markets, not the government sums failing to add up? Really?
You think the government have made no mistakes at all? Really?
Everyone else in the universe, even the ectoplasm living on planet Smith 4b known as the 2nd most right wing bio form in the universe admitted Truss has made mistakes, even Telegraph columnists the number 1 most right wing bio form in the universe have admitted Truss has made mistakes, everyone except you Lucky - you have to be different don’t you?
One obvious mistake was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets getting spooked, and market concerns for sums to add up have yet to be properly addressed by the government, a sticking plaster was put on last week, taken off the bleeding has started. What’s wrong with that argument?
The other obvious mistake was borrowing a quarter of a trillion to buck a market against all the rest of this new governments messaging and ideology. It’s not really them, why are they pushing on with a Starmer policy that’s very antithesis of what they believe in? That Labour Policy thinking also spooked the markets, and completely unnecessary, the alternative option of variable price cap is out there ready to be used by the government.
That’s the two obvious mistakes imo, you really should concede.
What's wrong with the argument is the timing. Continuing festering unease with the mini budget would have resulted in a totally different pattern. You can palm the initial market response off on Truss and Kwarteng, but this one is flat out, bang to rights, because the bank has restarted its bond selling programme.
Do you really think that the fact that the cost of borrowing has risen is not because the Bank is trying to sell British Government debt after 10 years of buying it? Do you not think that sends a leeeeetle signal?
I don't think Truss is infallible btw - I think she chose a shit COE. However, what's done is done.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Fungible. As you often say
Is price of fungible commodity going through roof really an example of Fungibility?
Fungibility is the ability of a good or asset to be readily interchanged for another of like kind. Like goods and assets that are not interchangeable, such as owned cars and houses, are non-fungible.
This is example of world wide commodity inflation?
Power generators are economically rational. If it's cheaper to generate a MWh of electricity from coal rather than gas, then they'll generate it from coal.
And the rising price of gas has made coal much more attractive - they are (to an extent) fungible.
The end of year Newcastle* coal contract is just under $400/tonne - which is up about 8x from its pre-invasion lows.
So if we'd only had coal generation, we'd have been almost as f*cked as if we'd only had gas.
* That's Newcastle in Australia
And that’s you taking coals to Newcastle again.
I think I understand, you are saying it’s made coal and gas into fungible goods when they weren’t before as now either can be used without much loss or profit?
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Some kind of coup in Venezuela would be convenient...
What have you heard?
Nothing at all, sadly.
If the US wasn't now a net energy exporter I'm sure the CIA would be thinking that out loud.
Mind you, there are rumours that the US might lift some sanctions.
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Wouldn’t the Russians get more value for money using this resource in the front line area’s, such as hitting advancing columns and their supply lines, and their big field guns?
Nah, the kit on show today isnt built for that, its largely static target oriented. There is concern that they still have plenty of ground launched ballistic missiles that could hit Ukraine from the Russian and Belarussian borders. Again its all built for static targets..like a anywhere in a city.
The Russian record on hitting m,ving logistics during this war has been of the more dire performances imaginable. Most of the kit moves at night and the Russians seem largely incapable of finding it as it moves.
As for their artillery, where is it? It hasnt been such a feature on the East and South East fronts now for a while. Has it been damaged to such an extent by Ukrainian counter battery work? Partially, but that can't be the only answer suggesting a) they are short on ammo and/or b) being pushed out of range for fear of getting hit.
Meanwhile rumours from Belarus. the dog that barked alot but didnt come from behind the fence. More stories that the Russians might try to launch into Ukraine from there, again.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Given that there's no mini budget this time, how's this one being spun as their fault?
Because the bank of England stepped in to offer temporary support to the market - that support is now being wound up, so the borrowing costs are rising again.
Quite.
Bank of England decides to reverse its policy of nearly a decade hoovering up Government debt, and instead tries to flog it off when there's a world crisis on.
Market flop happens, BOE temporarily reverses its policy, market steadies.
BOE goes back to flogging it off again, markets go to shit again.
What I am not seeing is how all of this is still being hung round the neck of Truss's mini budget and 2bn worth of tax cuts, by anyone with a brain cell.
It’s actually £13B of tax giveaways. 45 minus two for uturn on one change and minus 30 for the sneaky fiscal drag stealth tax. But it was more than cutting thirteen billion and calling it big growth budget, it was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets making up their minds, and their concerns have yet to be addressed.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
Three paras on fiscal policy, completely ignoring monetary policy.
You don’t necessary disagree with the facts in those para’s though do you - so go on then, add your monetary policy para’s to accompany these if you think the picture is slanted and incomplete
It should now be obvious that the patterns of market turbulence don't accord with the markets 'still being unconvinced' by Truss and Kwarteng's fiscal policies. They accord with the bank flogging off Government debt, stopping flogging it off, and then trying to start again. It would reassure the markets if the BOE stopped selling indefinitely until conditions change.
You think the BoE acting independent from government on last weeks sticking plaster plan? Really? It was likely divised in the Treasury in zoom calls with the bank.
You think it’s the banks actions spooking the markets, not the government sums failing to add up? Really?
You think the government have made no mistakes at all? Really?
Everyone else in the universe, even the ectoplasm living on planet Smith 4b known as the 2nd most right wing bio form in the universe admitted Truss has made mistakes, even Telegraph columnists the number 1 most right wing bio form in the universe have admitted Truss has made mistakes, everyone except you Lucky - you have to be different don’t you?
One obvious mistake was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets getting spooked, and market concerns for sums to add up have yet to be properly addressed by the government, a sticking plaster was put on last week, taken off the bleeding has started. What’s wrong with that argument?
The other obvious mistake was borrowing a quarter of a trillion to buck a market against all the rest of this new governments messaging and ideology. It’s not really them, why are they pushing on with a Starmer policy that’s very antithesis of what they believe in? That Labour Policy thinking also spooked the markets, and completely unnecessary, the alternative option of variable price cap is out there ready to be used by the government.
That’s the two obvious mistakes imo, you really should concede.
What's wrong with the argument is the timing. Continuing festering unease with the mini budget would have resulted in a totally different pattern. You can palm the initial market response off on Truss and Kwarteng, but this one is flat out, bang to rights, because the bank has restarted its bond selling programme.
Do you really think that the fact that the cost of borrowing has risen is not because the Bank is trying to sell British Government debt after 10 years of buying it? Do you not think that sends a leeeeetle signal?
I don't think Truss is infallible btw - I think she chose a shit COE. However, what's done is done.
Okay I do see your point. But it was the governments self explained plan to raise quarter of a trillion selling off government debt on the gilts - so the movement there is linked in with governments decisions and messaging, sums not adding up as yet and because of that the markets now see our debt as a bigger risk, because our sums don’t add up and so bigger risk to lend to, is what makes the plan to raise such a sum of money a more expensive plan. And that plan, and tge mistakes in which it’s been carried out so far, is Truss as first Lord of Treasury, Kwarteng and many others around her are her friends, he chaired her campaign, you can’t just blame him not her they are all in not just the plan but the enacting of the plan, together.
Why can’t you see the unnecessary largess of going to the markets for a quarter of a trillion is tied in as part of the problem - it’s not only to use that money in a way contrary to what this government believes and claims it stands for, but it’s a trickle loan for the markets to price up considering no OBR to show them state of our finances.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
That’s factually correct. And below the intro line, just a big laughing emoji?
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Ilford South was always going to dump Tarry given the very controversial circumstances of his being essentially foisted on the local party, as others have set out above. Jas isn’t universally popular in the seat but having a white outsider from Brighton representing one of the most ethnic seats in the country was never going to end well. Especially since Redbridge has never been a hotbed of Corbynism.
The real question is whether Tarry and his supporters have enough leverage to find him another winnable seat. Given the projected swings currently there will be plenty to choose from, and so the issue is whether the Labour leadership wants him gone or will accept his dropping in somewhere else. He’s an unpleasant character but then Labour has a fair few of those.
Total missile strikes against non frontline targets in Ukraine today - between 75 to 80. Russia cannot keep that up from air and sea for long. Land based ballistic missiles offer a notable supplement, however.
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Wouldn’t the Russians get more value for money using this resource in the front line area’s, such as hitting advancing columns and their supply lines, and their big field guns?
Nah, the kit on show today isnt built for that, its largely static target oriented. There is concern that they still have plenty of ground launched ballistic missiles that could hit Ukraine from the Russian and Belarussian borders. Again its all built for static targets..like a anywhere in a city.
The Russian record on hitting m,ving logistics during this war has been of the more dire performances imaginable. Most of the kit moves at night and the Russians seem largely incapable of finding it as it moves.
As for their artillery, where is it? It hasnt been such a feature on the East and South East fronts now for a while. Has it been damaged to such an extent by Ukrainian counter battery work? Partially, but that can't be the only answer suggesting a) they are short on ammo and/or b) being pushed out of range for fear of getting hit.
Meanwhile rumours from Belarus. the dog that barked alot but didnt come from behind the fence. More stories that the Russians might try to launch into Ukraine from there, again.
“ the dog that barked alot ‘
The problem I have with the attack from Belarus idea is attack and hold what? The bogus new Russian regions are a long way from up there, down in south east? What does an attack from the North seek to take and hold? It’s more likely a diversion rumour to stretch Ukraine and distract from a break out or shore up elsewhere, surely?
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
That’s factually correct. And below the intro line, just a big laughing emoji?
🤣
There will be many Ange-dreamers on here who will be pleased to see her boyf sidelined
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
That’s factually correct. And below the intro line, just a big laughing emoji?
🤣
There will be many Ange-dreamers on here who will be pleased to see her boyf sidelined
Have you seen down thread where how he took it last time stinks of dirty tricks, so this is a dish long planned best eaten cold tonight? Like caviar.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Ilford South was always going to dump Tarry given the very controversial circumstances of his being essentially foisted on the local party, as others have set out above. Jas isn’t universally popular in the seat but having a white outsider from Brighton representing one of the most ethnic seats in the country was never going to end well. Especially since Redbridge has never been a hotbed of Corbynism.
The real question is whether Tarry and his supporters have enough leverage to find him another winnable seat. Given the projected swings currently there will be plenty to choose from, and so the issue is whether the Labour leadership wants him gone or will accept his dropping in somewhere else. He’s an unpleasant character but then Labour has a fair few of those
.
We be interesting to watch. My guess is the leadership won’t want a trouble-making leftwinger rattling around any other winnable seats. But, we shall see.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Ilford South was always going to dump Tarry given the very controversial circumstances of his being essentially foisted on the local party, as others have set out above. Jas isn’t universally popular in the seat but having a white outsider from Brighton representing one of the most ethnic seats in the country was never going to end well. Especially since Redbridge has never been a hotbed of Corbynism.
The real question is whether Tarry and his supporters have enough leverage to find him another winnable seat. Given the projected swings currently there will be plenty to choose from, and so the issue is whether the Labour leadership wants him gone or will accept his dropping in somewhere else. He’s an unpleasant character but then Labour has a fair few of those
.
We be interesting to watch. My guess is the leadership won’t want a trouble-making leftwinger rattling around any other winnable seats. But, we shall see.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Some kind of coup in Venezuela would be convenient...
What have you heard?
Nothing at all, sadly.
If the US wasn't now a net energy exporter I'm sure the CIA would be thinking that out loud.
Mind you, there are rumours that the US might lift some sanctions.
Oh. Don’t install puppet regime if you can do mutual back scratching with current one.
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Wouldn’t the Russians get more value for money using this resource in the front line area’s, such as hitting advancing columns and their supply lines, and their big field guns?
Nah, the kit on show today isnt built for that, its largely static target oriented. There is concern that they still have plenty of ground launched ballistic missiles that could hit Ukraine from the Russian and Belarussian borders. Again its all built for static targets..like a anywhere in a city.
The Russian record on hitting m,ving logistics during this war has been of the more dire performances imaginable. Most of the kit moves at night and the Russians seem largely incapable of finding it as it moves.
As for their artillery, where is it? It hasnt been such a feature on the East and South East fronts now for a while. Has it been damaged to such an extent by Ukrainian counter battery work? Partially, but that can't be the only answer suggesting a) they are short on ammo and/or b) being pushed out of range for fear of getting hit.
Meanwhile rumours from Belarus. the dog that barked alot but didnt come from behind the fence. More stories that the Russians might try to launch into Ukraine from there, again.
“ the dog that barked alot ‘
The problem I have with the attack from Belarus idea is attack and hold what? The bogus new Russian regions are a long way from up there, down in south east? What does an attack from the North seek to take and hold? It’s more likely a diversion rumour to stretch Ukraine and distract from a break out or shore up elsewhere, surely?
Maybe and we have heard little hard evidence of this build up being one with purpose but a diversionary assault has value, whether rumour or real. The failure of the Russians, so far, to offer up some kind of counter offensive anywhere in response to the success of the Ukrainian offensive in the East & South East suggests they have problems.
"Unboxed: Creativity in the UK, previously known as Festival UK* 2022 is a national celebration in the United Kingdom first announced in 2018 by the Conservative government following the Brexit referendum.[1][2]
The concept was first proposed as a Festival of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and referred to by Jacob Rees-Mogg, later minister for Brexit opportunities, as the Festival of Brexit—a nickname which became widely used—but was rebranded as Unboxed: Creativity in the UK, and all mention of Brexit was avoided. It is taking place from March to 6 November 2022,[3] at a reported cost of £120 million.[4][5][6]
By 1 September 2022, 238,000 visitors had attended, 0.36% of the 66 million target.[7] The "Festival of Brexit" name has been blamed for failing to attract visitors by politicising the event.[8]"
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
The alternative is that we all die. But, you know, you do you
Paywalled so I don't know what their reasoning is. But the likely outcome of that would be that Ukraine would lose their current military advantage while Russia would have a chance to train their new half a million guys and build out their infrastructure up to the newly enlarged borders, ready for the next invasion.
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
The alternative is that we all die. But, you know, you do you
No, all possible choices may or may not end in us all dying. Putin losing a war (if that were to happen decisively, it's not at all clear that it will) is one possible way that a nuclear war starts. It's unlikely, but not comfortably vanishingly unlikely.
Giving in to nuclear blackmail has multiple routes for us all dying: 1) Russia takes Ukraine (or as much as they want of Ukraine) then tries to take something else it wants, and that escalates into nuclear war 2) Another nuclear-armed country sees what happened and tries the same trick, with the same result 3) Every non-nuclear country sees what happened and builds the biggest nuclear arsenal they can as fast as they can, and the world ends over some random dispute that's not even on our radar
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
Them's the rules, Scotty. You and I may not like it, but she won fair and square according to the rules.
Problem is, Putinist the world over believe that any vote they happen to win - however narrow the margin, and via whatever skullduggery- is ipso facto Holy Writ, Vox Populi and the Final Word.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
Anti-democrat, heal thyself.
Sorry, once again am too dumb and/or deluded to understand your superior wisdom.
I have Nevada as a narrow Republican gain, Pennsylvania as a narrow Dem gain, and Georgia too close to call. (I think the Dems hang on in AZ, and the Republicans in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.)
Sounds right to me. I would probably make the same predictions for those states.
"France’s oil strikes push on as petrol station queues worsen The country’s total refinery output has been reduced by more than 60% over the past two weeks"
I have Nevada as a narrow Republican gain, Pennsylvania as a narrow Dem gain, and Georgia too close to call. (I think the Dems hang on in AZ, and the Republicans in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.)
Sounds right to me. I would probably make the same predictions for those states.
If somebody held a gun to my head, and said I *had* to make a call on Georgia, it would probably be a Republican gain.
I have Nevada as a narrow Republican gain, Pennsylvania as a narrow Dem gain, and Georgia too close to call. (I think the Dems hang on in AZ, and the Republicans in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.)
Sounds right to me. I would probably make the same predictions for those states.
If somebody held a gun to my head, and said I *had* to make a call on Georgia, it would probably be a Republican gain.
That would be a rather odd thing to happen.
Someone pointing a gun to your head and demanding that you predict the outcome of an obscure election.
Regarding the Tarry defeat - get your popcorn ready. Various scenarios to consider: 1. The cult launch a legal challenge. Something about the Forde report being the reason why it's illegal to remove Tarry 2. Tarry defects to become the first Peace and Justice MP. Is joined by Webbe and other mentalist MPs threaten to follow. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 5pts 3. Tarry gets his missus (Angela Rayner) to kick up a fuss and she gets ousted as deputy leader in the ensuing melee. Raises Labour ratings in focus groups by another 10 points.
The Telegraph’s intro line is
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Ilford South was always going to dump Tarry given the very controversial circumstances of his being essentially foisted on the local party, as others have set out above. Jas isn’t universally popular in the seat but having a white outsider from Brighton representing one of the most ethnic seats in the country was never going to end well. Especially since Redbridge has never been a hotbed of Corbynism.
The real question is whether Tarry and his supporters have enough leverage to find him another winnable seat. Given the projected swings currently there will be plenty to choose from, and so the issue is whether the Labour leadership wants him gone or will accept his dropping in somewhere else. He’s an unpleasant character but then Labour has a fair few of those
.
We be interesting to watch. My guess is the leadership won’t want a trouble-making leftwinger rattling around any other winnable seats. But, we shall see.
I think they'd be rather relaxed about it. Pre-moves to deselection, when he started playing to the gallery, Tarry seemed to be one of the few Corbynites who got the problems with the previous regime and Starmer's need to change things. Hence why he served a reasonable stint as a Junior Minister. It's just the circumstances of his selection made a challenge inevitable. Then started kicking off to rally left support because he knew he'd lose without some kind of left insurgent campaign against a CLP whose normie members wanted another guy who they felt was diddled out of selection. Can go one of two ways. If he's smart he'll accept the result with dignity and may well find a way back. If he isn't he'll start a fight he can't win and join some of his fellow Corbynistas on the path to political oblivion.
She has until the local elections to turn it round
Is there not a problem, longer it goes on MPs enabling the Truss agenda with commons votes, the more they are all tarred with same brush in voters and opposition attacks, so by that point changing her makes little difference in polls?
MPs have already forced her to reverse the 45p tax cut etc but removing the leader less than 6 months after elected by the membership would lead to civil war. It would take a hammering by voters in the local elections next year to make clear Truss was doomed and to enable a coronation for a new leader
The next hurdle, long before the locals, is the Chancellor's next budget-type thing in six or seven weeks. Fall there and LizT is out. After that come any by-elections from Boris's peerages list (or his encounter with the Privileges Committee).
What might help Truss is lower than feared gas prices and a World Cup win.
She won't be, if she survived the mini budget she will survive a mere financial statement. The locals will be the big test. It was after poor local elections ultimately that both May and Boris were removed within 2 months.
Gas prices are affected by the Ukraine war, the support package is key for that. A football world cup win I doubt makes much difference, most football supporters vote Labour anyway outside of Chelsea. A rugby world cup win next autumn might boost the Tories as most rugby union supporters vote Conservative if she has survived that long
The point about falling gas prices is that reducing the cost of the government's energy cap freeze means the OBR (and hence the markets) might deem Kwasi's budget affordable.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
It really was. And a signal of shifting power
The West is in relative decline but we do not have to accept defeat. We still have plenty going for us. We are more attractive societies, for a start. See Iran right now
I am not yet persuaded Ukraine is the sacrificial altar on which we should finally test this
Relative decline to who or what? Certainly not China right now.
Senate Foreign Relations chair: The US “must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, incl. any arms sales & security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1579566989190004736
It is very odd what KSA seems to have done to upset America recently. I don't think it's being a brutal autocracy, because that has never remotely bothered them before. Wonder if something happened during or after Biden visited.
They cut oil production: to raise prices
And at a time when the whole world was struggling with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was a real f*ck you from KSA to the West.
The whole world isn't struggling with it. Most of the world hasn't involved itself in it either way.
That's dumb. Of course the whole world is struggling with this. Energy costs are universal, and inflation in the rich world spirals into the poorer world
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Anyone who is an energy importer - and that's most of the world - has been hammered.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
Fungible. As you often say
Is price of fungible commodity going through roof really an example of Fungibility?
Fungibility is the ability of a good or asset to be readily interchanged for another of like kind. Like goods and assets that are not interchangeable, such as owned cars and houses, are non-fungible.
This is example of world wide commodity inflation?
Power generators are economically rational. If it's cheaper to generate a MWh of electricity from coal rather than gas, then they'll generate it from coal.
And the rising price of gas has made coal much more attractive - they are (to an extent) fungible.
The end of year Newcastle* coal contract is just under $400/tonne - which is up about 8x from its pre-invasion lows.
So if we'd only had coal generation, we'd have been almost as f*cked as if we'd only had gas.
* That's Newcastle in Australia
Except they’re not entirely fungible - hence the order of magnitude difference in gas prices between North America and Europe. As you have noted yourself, making changes from existing infrastructure to either produce or transport large amounts of fuel commodities can take years. And what’s in place can only be quickly repurposed in a quite limited manner. The same is is also true of power generation infrastructure (in the case of nuclear or tidal, significant changes take decades).
On a one to two year view, when the world is subject to the kind if shocks we’re experiencing, this stuff isn’t really fungible at all in the way economists mean.
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
On that basis the same thing happened with Gordon Brown becoming PM in 2007, and he wasn't even elected by party members.
Two points there - most of us have been arguing that it would have been more democratically legitimate for a replacement PM to be selected by MPs, who are at least representatives of the electorate, rather than the extremely unrepresentative membership of either party.
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Wouldn’t the Russians get more value for money using this resource in the front line area’s, such as hitting advancing columns and their supply lines, and their big field guns?
Nah, the kit on show today isnt built for that, its largely static target oriented. There is concern that they still have plenty of ground launched ballistic missiles that could hit Ukraine from the Russian and Belarussian borders. Again its all built for static targets..like a anywhere in a city.
The Russian record on hitting m,ving logistics during this war has been of the more dire performances imaginable. Most of the kit moves at night and the Russians seem largely incapable of finding it as it moves.
As for their artillery, where is it? It hasnt been such a feature on the East and South East fronts now for a while. Has it been damaged to such an extent by Ukrainian counter battery work? Partially, but that can't be the only answer suggesting a) they are short on ammo and/or b) being pushed out of range for fear of getting hit.
Meanwhile rumours from Belarus. the dog that barked alot but didnt come from behind the fence. More stories that the Russians might try to launch into Ukraine from there, again.
“ the dog that barked alot ‘
The problem I have with the attack from Belarus idea is attack and hold what? The bogus new Russian regions are a long way from up there, down in south east? What does an attack from the North seek to take and hold? It’s more likely a diversion rumour to stretch Ukraine and distract from a break out or shore up elsewhere, surely?
Because the crap shoot of tanks on Chernobyl Road went so well for the enemy back in the February mud, they want to do it all over again in the October mud?
Just thinking out loud, but I reckon the the NLAWs and Javelins might be favourites to win again…
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
Or a wilful ignorance.
That's exactly the point. He knows exactly what he is doing, and the fanboi idiots and nasty regimes lap it up,
I mean, I wonder why a guy with massive factories in China, who got special deals to open the factories in China, and sees a massive market in China, might want to say things the autocratic regime likes?
Musk was great when he was doing SpaceX and basic Tesla. He was just bad when he conned people into propping up the Tesla share price by announcing stuff that have not arrived six or more years later. He's nasty when he announces an obviously terrible idea to stop high speed rail.
But this stuff with China and Russia is just plain evil. He knows very well what he is doing.
To quote Thunderfoot; Musk is serial Elizabeth Holmes. It isn't quite a fair comparison, but it's not far off.
The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt
Compared to the 65 million who are being treated with contempt, the 81,000 can STFU
On that basis the same thing happened with Gordon Brown becoming PM in 2007, and he wasn't even elected by party members.
It’s always different when your own side does it.
Not quite. The clear difference is that Truss is consciously treating her Government as new. She's way off the 2019 manifesto. She's not tinkering around the edges, but seems to be running in opposition to her predecessor in a way that Brown didn't.
Elon Musk's sage words are going down well in all the liberal democracies, like China and Russia.
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
His suggestion that Taiwan could become a 'special administrative region' of China was very dim, it shows no understanding or appreciation of what happened in Hong Kong.
He should really stick to building rockets, which is what he’s good at, rather than international diplomacy.
The background is likely to do with Tesla trying to set up more factories in China and Taiwan, but that sort of discussion is best done with local experts, not by yourself on Twitter. He’s been in trouble before with the SEC, for mouthing off about things that should be announced to the stock market in a formal manner.
Comments
There would be a disastrous civil war within the party if Truss were forced out so soon after being elected. The Party members who voted for her would feel they were being treated with contempt, and that she wasn't being given a fair chance. You can understand that, no matter how much you may dislike the idea of a PM and Party Leader being foisted on us by the Tory Party membership.
What's more, it's not like there is some saviour standing by ready to sort out the mess. Hyufd has suggested elsewhere that a Wallace/Sunak leadership would limit the damage better than most, and I agree, but we are talking damage limitation here, not winning the next GE or even getting close to it. Personally I think that given a fair wind those two might just enable 200 or so Tory MPs to retain their seat but even that depends on skilful management as well as luck.
The first thing that needs to be managed is the timing. Stick them in now and they won't have a prayer. Wait until the May Locals and maybe they have a chance. It will certainly give the Party the opportunity to say that she had her chance and it simply wasn't working and that in itself will help legitimise the successor(s).
Like Hyufd, I have my doubts about whether the Party is wise enough to tread this difficult path, and there are pitfalls which could make it futile anyway. I am far from sure, for example, that Wallace and Sunak would go along with it. No matter. It seems the best plan to me. Let Truss and Kwasi bear all the odium of the economic bad news that is coming along and then clear them out. Get a couple of solid performers to replace them in May and hold tight, maintain discipline, and pray that enough Tories make it through the next GE to form a decent opposition.
It might not work, but it is a credible plan. Most others I hear of run the risk that the next LOTO will be a SNP member, or, perish the thought, a LibDem.
Also, this guy fucked your dog last summer, and you have very recently discovered a video of him doing that
Now he's trying to sell you a new car. The car looks weird and has a faintly distasteful smell. But he's really doing his best to sell it, and he's got a reasonable patter, "sorry about the last car and the whole door thing, but this one is really a bargain, trust me"
But all the time he is saying this you are thinking. "I've seen a video. Of you. Fucking my dog"
The sale will not be completed
Tory MPs are not
The West is in relative decline but we do not have to accept defeat. We still have plenty going for us. We are more attractive societies, for a start. See Iran right now
I am not yet persuaded Ukraine is the sacrificial altar on which we should finally test this
Even if she is willing to do the first, she might not be capable of doing the second.
The Belarusian government’s hold over it’s people is shaky to start with and add some battlefield losses to that and it could re-ignite the protests. Putin doesn’t have the forces to quash any uprising, reserved as they are for Ukraine. If the Belarusian government falls the new leaders are likely to turn their back on Russia, sensing weakness. Russia cannot fight both Ukraine and Belarus.
Similarly the contagion could spread, just like the late 80s. Not just to Moscow, but also to all those pesky provinces of the Russian Federation that kinda fancy their independence.
Another collapse, anyone?
Look at Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc
Tarry did strike me as genuine in what he stood for and made of stern stuff.
https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1552206179954221057?lang=en-GB
It would be dum politics for Starmer to have nothing but two fingers to the party’s union pay masters, and be incapable of using and working with the Union backed Sam Tarrys?
The Conservative chair of the Treasury select committee Mel Stride praises the chancellor for reneging on the 45p tax cut, but says he may need to go further
#Newsnighti https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1579597005252448259/video/1
Agreed, Stuart.
Like I said, many potential pitfalls, and you have named just a couple.
I still think it's their best shot though. Their situation is so parlous that they simply have to go for it, but I'm far from sure they will.
It's Cameron, Osbourne, May, Boris.
Labour will be worse has stretched credulity beyond breaking.
I am just saying if Tory MPs evict her them's also the rules, and the members can suck it.
Thems the rules
Whether they'd appreciate that it's fully deserved is an interesting question.
The latest from IFS is claim the only way to balance books and appease the angry market God is toss SIXTY BILLION of departmental budget cuts in the volcano.
The IFS not technically lying but certainly misleading. If governments over expensive energy price freeze morphs into a Variable price cap that’s better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself, those £60B of departmental cuts are not needed and the markets will be so overjoyed we are borrowing about a quarter of a trillion less, they will invite us round for Champaign and give us a credit card with about £120B borrowing on it.
All I'm doing (and I don't get paid for this) is indicating what their best route out of the mess may be. You may not agree, but you should at least pause for a moment when leftish PtP and rightish Hyufd sing from the same hymn sheet.
Anyway it's past my bed time. Nite all. Maybe chat again in the morning.
It doesn't matter if you don't import from Russia, it doesn't even matter if you don't import gas, the price of energy has gone through the roof.
https://twitter.com/PredictionGo/status/1579600128574619650?s=20&t=3LGQ_d-Qtu2iFZhqxOOYuA
What might have been...
Goodnight all.
There's a planning restriction on that Cumbrian coal mine that says they can only get a certain amount out a year - I say restriction be damned.
Fungibility is the ability of a good or asset to be readily interchanged for another of like kind. Like goods and assets that are not interchangeable, such as owned cars and houses, are non-fungible.
This is example of world wide commodity inflation?
Despite the media reports, the spate of Russian missile attacks isnt a response to the sabotage of the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of the likelihood of this kind of shift from Russia from about a week or two ago and they expect this to last anything upto 2-3 weeks (though Russia could run out of stand off weapons to lob first).
Its is partially war by terror but it is not, again despite media reports, purely civilian targets that they were after, though thats were most of the ordanance ended up. Some of it was designed to just hit civilian infrastructure and its timing was very deliberate but other targets do have some war capacity role.
Of course, the talking heads will declare it desperation, a bit like Hitler chucking the V1s & V2s at England and in a way it is. But its also a tester to see if anyone will take a stance. In short, its testing the possibility of more basic kind of bombardment and whether the West will further back the Ukrainians to negate the problem.
What the west should do is give Ukraine more range air defence, the kind of thing that could hit a Russian bomber releasing its weaponry over the border. the Russian air forces do not take big risks and lack the ability to cope with even medium attrition levels.
But will they? Probably not in a hurry.
Whereas any vote they loose, is either totally bogus, inconsequential, or both.
Different strokes for different folks - and screw the wokes . . .
I presumed this was a 1-2 day affair
Dem 48.6%
GOP 48.5%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Quid pro quo: Putin leaves the US and UK alone otherwise we nuke him and kill him, likewise Australia etc. So then we divide the world into the Russophere, the Anglosphere, and the Sinosphere, and we proceed from there
In a way it is better, really
E.g. this report from May about three power stations in Lviv being hit by missiles:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/ukraine-invasion-russian-missiles-power-stations-railways-lviv-b997811.html
Yes they could do damage to Ukrainian infrastructure such as power and physical communications routes, however, few questions for the Russians.
1. Is that the aim or is it just causing fear and basic wrecking of the place? Modern airforces do this stuff at night generally, Russia did it during daylight hours, you assume just to get the terror value
2. Have they got the kit to maintain that tempo of stand off strikes in the 20 to 30 launches a day region for that long? Open question, that.
3. Do they actually know how to hit anything? Their record so far of hitting high value military targets is not great and they seem unable to destroy any logistics in transit operations. Its remarkable how little they have been able to strike from the air at night against mobile targets
You think it’s the banks actions spooking the markets, not the government sums failing to add up? Really?
You think the government have made no mistakes at all? Really?
Everyone else in the universe, even the ectoplasm living on planet Smith 4b known as the 2nd most right wing bio form in the universe admitted Truss has made mistakes, even Telegraph columnists the number 1 most right wing bio form in the universe have admitted Truss has made mistakes, everyone except you Lucky - you have to be different don’t you?
One obvious mistake was promising more tax cuts before promising balancing the books which led to the markets getting spooked, and market concerns for sums to add up have yet to be properly addressed by the government, a sticking plaster was put on last week, taken off the bleeding has started. What’s wrong with that argument?
The other obvious mistake was borrowing a quarter of a trillion to buck a market against all the rest of this new governments messaging and ideology. It’s not really them, why are they pushing on with a Starmer policy that’s very antithesis of what they believe in? That Labour Policy thinking also spooked the markets, and completely unnecessary, the alternative option of variable price cap is out there ready to be used by the government.
That’s the two obvious mistakes imo, you really should concede.
And the rising price of gas has made coal much more attractive - they are (to an extent) fungible.
The end of year Newcastle* coal contract is just under $400/tonne - which is up about 8x from its pre-invasion lows.
So if we'd only had coal generation, we'd have been almost as f*cked as if we'd only had gas.
* That's Newcastle in Australia
Do you really think that the fact that the cost of borrowing has risen is not because the Bank is trying to sell British Government debt after 10 years of buying it? Do you not think that sends a leeeeetle signal?
I don't think Truss is infallible btw - I think she chose a shit COE. However, what's done is done.
I think I understand, you are saying it’s made coal and gas into fungible goods when they weren’t before as now either can be used without much loss or profit?
If the US wasn't now a net energy exporter I'm sure the CIA would be thinking that out loud.
Mind you, there are rumours that the US might lift some sanctions.
The Russian record on hitting m,ving logistics during this war has been of the more dire performances imaginable. Most of the kit moves at night and the Russians seem largely incapable of finding it as it moves.
As for their artillery, where is it? It hasnt been such a feature on the East and South East fronts now for a while. Has it been damaged to such an extent by Ukrainian counter battery work? Partially, but that can't be the only answer suggesting a) they are short on ammo and/or b) being pushed out of range for fear of getting hit.
Meanwhile rumours from Belarus. the dog that barked alot but didnt come from behind the fence. More stories that the Russians might try to launch into Ukraine from there, again.
Angela Rayner’s boyfriend has been blocked from running as an MP
Why can’t you see the unnecessary largess of going to the markets for a quarter of a trillion is tied in as part of the problem - it’s not only to use that money in a way contrary to what this government believes and claims it stands for, but it’s a trickle loan for the markets to price up considering no OBR to show them state of our finances.
🤣
The real question is whether Tarry and his supporters have enough leverage to find him another winnable seat. Given the projected swings currently there will be plenty to choose from, and so the issue is whether the Labour leadership wants him gone or will accept his dropping in somewhere else. He’s an unpleasant character but then Labour has a fair few of those.
The problem I have with the attack from Belarus idea is attack and hold what? The bogus new Russian regions are a long way from up there, down in south east? What does an attack from the North seek to take and hold? It’s more likely a diversion rumour to stretch Ukraine and distract from a break out or shore up elsewhere, surely?
. .
Armistice. Freeze the frontlines where they are. Sit and wait. Do not even attempt to negotiate a “peace”, for now. It’s too complicated
That’s surely right
https://www.ft.com/content/c77e5760-ee81-419e-b7d6-ce568ae03160
Enjoy your caviar moment. 🙂
This is just the "Ukraine gives its territory to Russia" plan we were hearing from the "realist" school early on with extra steps.
The concept was first proposed as a Festival of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and referred to by Jacob Rees-Mogg, later minister for Brexit opportunities, as the Festival of Brexit—a nickname which became widely used—but was rebranded as Unboxed: Creativity in the UK, and all mention of Brexit was avoided. It is taking place from March to 6 November 2022,[3] at a reported cost of £120 million.[4][5][6]
By 1 September 2022, 238,000 visitors had attended, 0.36% of the 66 million target.[7] The "Festival of Brexit" name has been blamed for failing to attract visitors by politicising the event.[8]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unboxed:_Creativity_in_the_UK
Giving in to nuclear blackmail has multiple routes for us all dying:
1) Russia takes Ukraine (or as much as they want of Ukraine) then tries to take something else it wants, and that escalates into nuclear war
2) Another nuclear-armed country sees what happened and tries the same trick, with the same result
3) Every non-nuclear country sees what happened and builds the biggest nuclear arsenal they can as fast as they can, and the world ends over some random dispute that's not even on our radar
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20221010-no-relief-for-french-motorists-as-petrol-strike-hardens-despite-govt-pressure
"France’s oil strikes push on as petrol station queues worsen
The country’s total refinery output has been reduced by more than 60% over the past two weeks"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/09/frances-oil-strikes-push-on-as-petrol-station-queues-worsen
Someone pointing a gun to your head and demanding that you predict the outcome of an obscure election.
Terrifying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuTqFWOP2Ps
The government has a strategy?
He really is a clueless lowlife piece of sh*t.
As you have noted yourself, making changes from existing infrastructure to either produce or transport large amounts of fuel commodities can take years. And what’s in place can only be quickly repurposed in a quite limited manner.
The same is is also true of power generation infrastructure (in the case of nuclear or tidal, significant changes take decades).
On a one to two year view, when the world is subject to the kind if shocks we’re experiencing, this stuff isn’t really fungible at all in the way economists mean.
And… Gordon Brown, really ?
Just thinking out loud, but I reckon the the NLAWs and Javelins might be favourites to win again…
U.S. tourist smashed ancient Roman sculptures at Vatican, authorities say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/10/06/vatican-museum-statue-american-tourist/
I mean, I wonder why a guy with massive factories in China, who got special deals to open the factories in China, and sees a massive market in China, might want to say things the autocratic regime likes?
Musk was great when he was doing SpaceX and basic Tesla. He was just bad when he conned people into propping up the Tesla share price by announcing stuff that have not arrived six or more years later. He's nasty when he announces an obviously terrible idea to stop high speed rail.
But this stuff with China and Russia is just plain evil. He knows very well what he is doing.
To quote Thunderfoot; Musk is serial Elizabeth Holmes. It isn't quite a fair comparison, but it's not far off.
The background is likely to do with Tesla trying to set up more factories in China and Taiwan, but that sort of discussion is best done with local experts, not by yourself on Twitter. He’s been in trouble before with the SEC, for mouthing off about things that should be announced to the stock market in a formal manner.