The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
'Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used. This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath’s tantrum.'
Just an alternative viewpoint.
The Estonian government has just designated Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. I expect several more countries may do so, and further sanctions will follow that.
I mean, they literally invaded another country for purposes of territorial expansion and are happy to flatten the rest if they can. It's not a tough judgement call even with the hard headed practical realities of geo politics.
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
A negligible amount of heating for any purpose was electric, and electric light was as often as not banned whether available or not. Poor point, comrade.
Харьков_Живет Kharkiv_Lives @HarZizn The energy infrastructure of #Kharkiv was fired upon by three rockets. Power supply was partially restored by the evening, water supply was not #War_in_Ukraine
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
it's really not fantastical. Putin can win - unfortunately - if he has the means and will to obliterate half of Ukraine and starve their cities of all power, water, etc
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
And yet. Tens of thousands of civilians survived Stalingrad.
Figures for context: Pre-war population of Stalinggrad - just under half a million. Pre-siege evacuation refused by Stalin. 40-50k deported to be slaves in Germany. £10k-60k survived. Around 80-90% of civilians in Stalingrad dead. Quite stark numbers.
On UKR, remember that 7.5 million have left Ukraine, and 8 million have been displaced within Ukraine, and X million (I don't know the exact number) have been deported to Russia / left for Russia. Which is one of many reasons why those fake referenda were straight out of Putin's backside.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
There's nothing wrong with people living in a more stoic way for a few years. Everyone did it during the Second World War and for about 10 years afterwards, and they mostly did it in a cheerful way.
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
Terror bombing did not defeat the Japanese, the Japanese were defeated by a combination of losing the war via conventional means and being outgunned with weaponry they couldn't defend or fight back against.
None of that applies today.
This is pretty sui generis. We have never seen a powerful modern nation attempt to subdue a neighbouring nation with an all out assault on infrastructure, and a total disregard for human life. I don't think it's been tried, not least because it is Satanic
But I get the sense that is what the Russians will now try and do. And it comes back to their supply of suitable weapons
Not neighbouring but I would consider the US sending 2.2 million conscripts and using napalm to kill its opponents a total disregard for human life. They still lost.
We're not seeing a powerful modern nation attempt that today either.
We're seeing an impotent failed state lashing out with a few missiles from a limited stockpile.
Good example but USSR - Afghanistan 1979 -1989 might be a closer match.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
Current Air Quality Index for Selected World Cities - from worst to best, 1 to 93 (0-49 = Good, 50-99 = Moderate, 100-149 = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, 150-199 = Unhealthy, 200-299 = Very Unhealthy, 300+ = Hazardous)
01 - Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia = 160 02 - Lahore, Pakistan = 159 03 - Seattle, WA, USA = 152 04 - Jakarta, Indonesia = 149 05 - Portland, OR, USA = 141 10 - Karachi, Pakistan = 97 23 - Vancouver, BC, Canada = 74 29 - Dubai, UAE = 68 30 - Los Angeles, CA, USA = 66 34 - Paris, France = 61 40 - New York City, NY, USA = 55 45 - Tokyo, Japan = 53 56 - Vienna, Austria = 45 63 - Mexico City, Mexico = 29 72 - Melbourne, Australia = 25 80 - San Francisco, CA, USA = 18 89 - Kyiv, Ukraine = 12 90 - London, UK = 12
SSI - surprise for yours truly re: above list, is Mexico City.
I agree. I worked there for ten days and the crew who came with me from the US and UK were all made ill by the fumes. I was the only one who wasn't and it was thought because I was a heavy smoker.
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
Starmer beats Sturgeon in the recent approval ratings and frankly is about to cause all kinds of problems for the SNP
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
I'm actually rather surprised. After the Brexit Wars, I'd always assumed that the Tories would retain a significant amount of Leavers who, if nothing else, wouldn't want to give the parties of Remain the satisfaction of a poll boost. But even that hasn't happened. Is Brexit that much of a thudding disappointment?
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
There's nothing wrong with people living in a more stoic way for a few years. Everyone did it during the Second World War and for about 10 years afterwards, and they mostly did it in a cheerful way.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih) http://donorbox.org/freearmyukraine
AP Europe @AP_Europe · 8h A power outage hit Denmark's island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, with authorities saying that an underwater cable from Sweden that provides electricity had been cut. The cause is under investigation.
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
I'm actually rather surprised. After the Brexit Wars, I'd always assumed that the Tories would retain a significant amount of Leavers who, if nothing else, wouldn't want to give the parties of Remain the satisfaction of a poll boost. But even that hasn't happened. Is Brexit that much of a thudding disappointment?
It's done. Voters vote on the present and the future, not the past.
The one I'm looking forward to is Kantar. They had the gap down to just 4 pts last time. It was a while ago though.
Maybe they are having difficulty recruiting.
The next Mori is due first, they also have quite a pro Lab bias but they come with long term trend associated data such as which gender, age groups and economic-social groups contributed most to the rapid keirplunk. Indications of big movement of men, pensioners, Brexit supporters to Labour would be three hammer blows for Tories as they have owned these groups for at least last three elections.
And yes, can the Kantor defy gravity a second time, it’s last poll taken just on the cusp of the keirplunk starting, my guess something around 27 v 44 is Kantors own version of a 32 lead from yougov and although the smallest gap by far will prove absolutely unreal from them, if I guess right.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
There's nothing wrong with people living in a more stoic way for a few years. Everyone did it during the Second World War and for about 10 years afterwards, and they mostly did it in a cheerful way.
It was a very different age then
It was, but as areas experiencing true hardship show, societies can bear a lot. We don't need to go full WW2, but we can handle more than we think.
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
I'm actually rather surprised. After the Brexit Wars, I'd always assumed that the Tories would retain a significant amount of Leavers who, if nothing else, wouldn't want to give the parties of Remain the satisfaction of a poll boost. But even that hasn't happened. Is Brexit that much of a thudding disappointment?
Well, apart from the fact of the act of Brexit, a lot of the promised joys seem roughly as far away as ever.
Even the "Brexit will allow British people to decide how they are governed" argument looks a bit thin right now.
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
I'm actually rather surprised. After the Brexit Wars, I'd always assumed that the Tories would retain a significant amount of Leavers who, if nothing else, wouldn't want to give the parties of Remain the satisfaction of a poll boost. But even that hasn't happened. Is Brexit that much of a thudding disappointment?
Boris "got Brexit done" and we all moved on (except for the 10% of die hard remainers who are still looking for revenge every waking minute of the day)
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
I'm actually rather surprised. After the Brexit Wars, I'd always assumed that the Tories would retain a significant amount of Leavers who, if nothing else, wouldn't want to give the parties of Remain the satisfaction of a poll boost. But even that hasn't happened. Is Brexit that much of a thudding disappointment?
Boris "got Brexit done" and we all moved on (except for the 10% of die hard remainers who are still looking for revenge every waking minute of the day)
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
There's nothing wrong with people living in a more stoic way for a few years. Everyone did it during the Second World War and for about 10 years afterwards, and they mostly did it in a cheerful way.
It was a very different age then
It was, but as areas experiencing true hardship show, societies can bear a lot. We don't need to go full WW2, but we can handle more than we think.
But they need to believe in their government and Truss/Kwarteng have severed all belief and confidence in them and the conservatives
Time for Truss and Kwarteng to go and bring in Sunak who at least predicted this and would have a chance of stabilising the markets
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih) http://donorbox.org/freearmyukraine
This only works for Putin if he can keep it up. Imagine Kyiv enduring a Ukrainian winter with no power. Is it even possible?
Oh no, not a power cut for a few hours
Having no power or water for a day or two, was perfectly normal in Ukraine before the war. It won’t be a problem during the war either. People cope, because people do that, especially when there’s a wider context of a madman trying to take over their way of life.
How are the residents of the leafy parts of London 2022, going to react if there’s no power for a few hours this winter?
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
Ditto. I took a week out as my crystal ball shows only revolving dog turds. There is no purpose to politics. The Tories are over and Labour will be as popular as Thrush within 6 months of winning. I actually dreamt Truss called a snap GE and the Tories got a majority of 3 because Rees Mogg held on by a handful of votes and everyone except the Tories forgot to put up a candidate in Cannock Chase. For a while i'll just post on the gloomy stuff, politics, local by elections and polls will be one sided for a good few months
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
Or on the votes of folk who can't/won't spell his name correctly.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
Ditto. I took a week out as my crystal ball shows only revolving dog turds. There is no purpose to politics. The Tories are over and Labour will be as popular as Thrush within 6 months of winning. I actually dreamt Truss called a snap GE anx thd Tories got a majority of 3 because Rees Mogg held on by a handful of votes and everyone except the Tories forgot to put up a candidate in Cannock Chase. For a while i'll just post on the gloomy stuff, politics, local by elections and polls will be one sided for a good few months
Yes, politics is over, of the normal kind anyway
This is a wartime crisis even if we are not actually at war, yet
I can even foresee a Wartime Coalition if things get worse. And they are going to get worse
@MaxPB are these private DB pensions? If so, why is the Government essentially guaranteeing them?
There is a government backed insurance scheme, to which all DB pensions pay.
In return for this protection, the funds are supposed to have uniform levels of actuarial accounting, and to keep their funds well funded.
Just to confirm I got this right, the government have a deal with pension funds for the pension funds to eat the governments poo, in return if the pension funds start to smell like poo the government tries to help them smell sweet again?
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
Tea, fish and chips and some hookey stuff off a guy with a pencil tash. Sorted.
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
It never gets to minus 10C in London, tho
Quite hard to sing if your eyes are frozen shut and you can't see the old joanna
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih)
This only works for Putin if he can keep it up. Imagine Kyiv enduring a Ukrainian winter with no power. Is it even possible?
There are estimates online of Russia’s prewar production capacity of cruise missiles of 120 per year. Pretty paltry. Sure the Iranians are giving some kamikaze drones but what is their production capacity? How easy are they to destroy? Total fired in the last 24 hours was 75, over half shot down. And with more air defence systems on the way.
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
Or on the votes of folk who can't/won't spell his name correctly.
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
No, he surely doesn't. But can he get new supplies?
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
A lot of it already restored in just six hours - there is no tactic that can knock it out for six months. Truth is, if Putin Bridge wasn’t damaged, not a single Russian missile would have been wasted, yes wasted, outside of the front line theatre. Todays mistakes by Russia goes to the core of their problems: emotive reactionary leadership is not the type of support the Russian People dying in the front line really needs right now.
Looks like quite a few Russian troops have entered Belarus in order to form joint units with the BY army and possibly try to invade UA from the north. A huge risk for Lukashenka if true. Could start a Belarusian civil war. and the UA army has kept about a third in reserve to face just this possibility.
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
Today's attack had an air of Russia finding all the odds and ends they'd missed the first time round the ammunition depot. I guess we'll see what they have left to target playgrounds with tomorrow.
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien Zaluzhnyi tweets about today's attack. Russians basically used almost every missile type in their arsenal as well as Iranian UAVs. Ukrainians shot down more than 50%.
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
Or on the votes of folk who can't/won't spell his name correctly.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
Ditto. I took a week out as my crystal ball shows only revolving dog turds. There is no purpose to politics. The Tories are over and Labour will be as popular as Thrush within 6 months of winning. I actually dreamt Truss called a snap GE anx thd Tories got a majority of 3 because Rees Mogg held on by a handful of votes and everyone except the Tories forgot to put up a candidate in Cannock Chase. For a while i'll just post on the gloomy stuff, politics, local by elections and polls will be one sided for a good few months
Yes, politics is over, of the normal kind anyway
This is a wartime crisis even if we are not actually at war, yet
I can even foresee a Wartime Coalition if things get worse. And they are going to get worse
The Tories best bet is to ditch Madame Kinkasaurus and try and lash Starmer to the mast with them. He might have to say yes if things degenerate, or risk looking like hes cashing in on misery
Looks like quite a few Russian troops have entered Belarus in order to form joint units with the BY army and possibly try to invade UA from the north. A huge risk for Lukashenka if true. Could start a Belarusian civil war. and the UA army has kept about a third in reserve to face just this possibility.
I'm sure his pretext will be totally believable - since everyone knows that puny Ukraine, suffering under the might of Putin and his glorious army, would totally attack a neighbour and provoke retaliation.
The state let's DB pension funds fend for themselves, companies go bankrupt and the UK corporate sector goes through very, very rapid change.
Pension funds ultimately have recourse to all company assets. The scheme is a liability.
Your proposal would be a good one of that wasn't the case. As it stands, you're suggesting mass company bankruptcies and cash calls from their pension funds.
The funding level of schemes has also improved dramatically over recent years so are no longer such a drain on companies. They have a liquidity crisis now a solvency one.
This all imploding just shifts that crisis onto the sponsoring companies.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih)
This only works for Putin if he can keep it up. Imagine Kyiv enduring a Ukrainian winter with no power. Is it even possible?
There are estimates online of Russia’s prewar production capacity of cruise missiles of 120 per year. Pretty paltry. Sure the Iranians are giving some kamikaze drones but what is their production capacity? How easy are they to destroy? Total fired in the last 24 hours was 75, over half shot down. And with more air defence systems on the way.
You are falling into an abyss of hyperbole.
I'm really not. I am, I hope, being realistic. I want Putin to lose and this war to end in peace, but we are not at that happy place yet
I've said multiple times today that Putin surely doesn't have enough missiles/drones as things stand. So this tactic fails AS THINGS STAND
But wars evolve quickly and chaotically. If Putin can persuade China to help out an old pal... (see my point below)
When I was looking at the early Coronavirus threads, the other day, I checked your responses. For a long while you were in stubborn and ludicrous denial. You are lucky you wised up just in time to make money
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
The state let's DB pension funds fend for themselves, companies go bankrupt and the UK corporate sector goes through very, very rapid change.
Pension funds ultimately have recourse to all company assets. The scheme is a liability.
Your proposal would be a good one of that wasn't the case. As it stands, you're suggesting mass company bankruptcies and cash calls from their pension funds.
The funding level of schemes has also improved dramatically over recent years so are no longer such a drain on companies. They have a liquidity crisis now a solvency one.
This all imploding just shifts that crisis onto the sponsoring companies.
Im relatively fortubate in that if any of my three pension funds go under bankrupting the parent they take either the UK or world economy with them. 2 banks and an insurance giant
Looks like quite a few Russian troops have entered Belarus in order to form joint units with the BY army and possibly try to invade UA from the north. A huge risk for Lukashenka if true. Could start a Belarusian civil war. and the UA army has kept about a third in reserve to face just this possibility.
Ah, the ressurection of the Chernobyl Road tank crap shoot, T-62s and T-72s vs NLAWs and Javelins.
Didn’t they see how well that went, when they last tried it back in February?
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
No, he surely doesn't. But can he get new supplies?
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Recent diplomatic moves from China point to the contrary. They are attempting to repair relations with the West because they realise Putin has failed and they made a bad call in February.
Looks like quite a few Russian troops have entered Belarus in order to form joint units with the BY army and possibly try to invade UA from the north. A huge risk for Lukashenka if true. Could start a Belarusian civil war. and the UA army has kept about a third in reserve to face just this possibility.
Great timing too, just as mud season starts again.
@MaxPB are these private DB pensions? If so, why is the Government essentially guaranteeing them?
There is a government backed insurance scheme, to which all DB pensions pay.
In return for this protection, the funds are supposed to have uniform levels of actuarial accounting, and to keep their funds well funded.
What happens when the insurance scheme goes bankrupt or reinsurers take fright? Genuine question btw, insurance is still there be dragons to me.
The insurance scheme is owned and run by the government.
What is supposed to happen in the event of a pension fund being actuarially insolvent is this:
(1) The parent tops it up (2) If the parent is unable to top it up and goes bust Then (3) The insurance scheme backs it to 90%
The government is contractually on the hook.
So if the insurance scheme is unable to meet the cost then the government steps in? Lovely, another route for working age people to fund rich old people.
I don't think so. It is set up for that never to happen. So it happens if the whole system collapses, which has afaics .. er .. not happened.
Sources of funding: 1 - Assets taken ove from failed pension funds. 2 - Reclaiming money from employers who have gone bust. 3 - A Levy from extant pensions schemes. 4 - Growing the assets in 1.
I'd say first call would be an increase in the levy in 3.
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
No, he surely doesn't. But can he get new supplies?
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Recent diplomatic moves from China point to the contrary. They are attempting to repair relations with the West because they realise Putin has failed and they made a bad call in February.
And yet this guy thinks differently
"Xi is wedded to Putin's war because China has much to gain geopolitically from a Russian victory"
In March 2004, Surovikin was accused by Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Chibizov of beating him up for voting for the wrong candidate. In April, division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin.[5] In both cases, a military prosecutor found no evidence of guilt.[8]
Mind you I'd want to interview the district deputy commander before forming a view on the incident.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
No, he surely doesn't. But can he get new supplies?
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Recent diplomatic moves from China point to the contrary. They are attempting to repair relations with the West because they realise Putin has failed and they made a bad call in February.
China just issued a statement looking for de-escalation of the war which is mildly positive.
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
It never gets to minus 10C in London, tho.
Quite hard to sing if your eyes are frozen shut and you can't see the old joanna.
Brrr. There'll be blue toes over the white cliffs of Dover ...
But seriously, a poster has just this minute said you are "falling into an abyss of hyperbole" and I'm afraid I have to agree. Get off the keyboard, have a mug of ovaltine and a gingernut.
A couple of thoughts on the incoming fiscal fking & where Truss/Kwarteng go from here;
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
A couple of thoughts on the incoming fiscal fking & where Truss/Kwarteng go from here;
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
FWIW, Telegraph's AEP thinks there's at least a reasonable possibility that the energy cap scheme will be massively less than predicted thanks to various rapid changes in energy markets. Does not apply if we get a terrible polar vortex mid winter though. But countries like Germany have 90-odd % storage capacity filled and Asian demand is weakening. For us Norway is key.
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
It never gets to minus 10C in London, tho.
Quite hard to sing if your eyes are frozen shut and you can't see the old joanna.
Brrr. There'll be blue toes over the white cliffs of Dover ...
But seriously, a poster has just this minute said you are "falling into an abyss of hyperbole" and I'm afraid I have to agree. Get off the keyboard, have a mug of ovaltine and a gingernut.
Only if you have enough ration points for a HUntley and Palmers biscuit packet and some Ovaltine tablets - and if you could find them.
WW2 on the home front was a lot shittier than the Brexiter myth. A time when landladies sent Land Girls to work on a beetroot sandwich.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Disclaimer, I am not a structural engineer or a demolitions expert. The bit of the road that took the bulk of the explosion is in the sea. No one has any idea of what it looks like. Extrapolating explosion direction base do nthat seems like a fools errand.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer nor a Feersum one but I do have some appropriate letters.
Bridges are designed to take loads from above. As we've seen from the multiple hits on the bridge in Kherson (albeit with less explosive) it is very hard to take such a structure down from the top of the deck.
To do it you would essentially have to blast the whole roadway in half, including the steel reinforcement.
From below (or to one side), you only have to destroy the supports on which each section rests or blow the bridge off them entirely. Most bridge decks are not fixed down as they have to move on bearings to accommodate thermal expansion. Sufficient force from below would lift them off.
In addition, water is essentially incompressible in an explosion so nearly 100% of the force will go upwards if you blow something on the surface. It would be a much more efficient use of explosive.
I think it is very very unlikely to have been a truck bomb.
I haven't seen anyone making this argument explain why only one of the road tracks was destroyed while the other was relatively unscathed. This is far easier to explain if it was a truck bomb on the surface.
Doing it from below would match historic attacks on bridges by saboteurs/special forces.
You literally cause a section (or sections) of bridge to jump into the air. These are generally held in position by the weight and a free to move a bit for expansion and loading effects. We are not talking vast distances either - the order of inches.
What goes up must come down. And bridge sections are not designed to be dropped. So they break when the smash back down again….
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
It was not terror bombing on its own.
Hope they served the Tarantula properly, Tempura I suggest - though it would be a scream if you simply ordered soup of the day, and didn’t realise it was Tarantula Surprise.
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
Which he almost certainly doesn't.
No, he surely doesn't. But can he get new supplies?
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Recent diplomatic moves from China point to the contrary. They are attempting to repair relations with the West because they realise Putin has failed and they made a bad call in February.
And yet this guy thinks differently
"Xi is wedded to Putin's war because China has much to gain geopolitically from a Russian victory"
A couple of thoughts on the incoming fiscal fking & where Truss/Kwarteng go from here;
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
It's a curious thing that people seem to believe that the triple lock and security of pension funds predominantly benefit pensioners.
And I can categorically assure you, from experience of having lived through one in the past, that the people who would be most badly hit by big house-price falls aren't elderly house owners (who would be completely or largely unaffected), but youngish families with big mortgages.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
There's nothing wrong with people living in a more stoic way for a few years. Everyone did it during the Second World War and for about 10 years afterwards, and they mostly did it in a cheerful way.
It was a very different age then
It was, but as areas experiencing true hardship show, societies can bear a lot. We don't need to go full WW2, but we can handle more than we think.
But they need to believe in their government and Truss/Kwarteng have severed all belief and confidence in them and the conservatives
Time for Truss and Kwarteng to go and bring in Sunak who at least predicted this and would have a chance of stabilising the markets
If I were Rishi I'd say yes - when you have both departed. Pointless until then.
A couple of thoughts on the incoming fiscal fking & where Truss/Kwarteng go from here;
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
1. No, because it is her entire figleaf for the rest of the mini budget despite not being part of the mini budget at all
2. Drop the NHS thing, I appreciate it is anti-oldie but it will be presented as anti Our NHS. Reframe falling house prices as being the party of More Housing in the tradition of Macmillan. Also, reform as a new party so as to ditch the entire current membership and get out of the membership vote for leader.
In March 2004, Surovikin was accused by Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Chibizov of beating him up for voting for the wrong candidate. In April, division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin.[5] In both cases, a military prosecutor found no evidence of guilt.[8]
Mind you I'd want to interview the district deputy commander before forming a view on the incident.
More to the point, he’s experienced in mass murder.
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Yes we would. We'd have just had a singsong and got on with it.
It never gets to minus 10C in London, tho.
Quite hard to sing if your eyes are frozen shut and you can't see the old joanna.
Brrr. There'll be blue toes over the white cliffs of Dover ...
But seriously, a poster has just this minute said you are "falling into an abyss of hyperbole" and I'm afraid I have to agree. Get off the keyboard, have a mug of ovaltine and a gingernut.
Yes, possibly
I shall have a gin, and maybe catch some House of Dragons
But my way of dealing with bad news is to take it all on the chin, absorb, process and extrapolate it as fast as possible, doomscroll myself stupid for a day or two, and then I can psychologically move on. And in the last few days there has been quite a lot of seriously bad news
It may come across as hyperbole but it's actually me trying to be as rational as possible, and not give in to wishful thinking or normalcy bias. It has worked in the past. I apologise if it appears mad
Anyway, yes, gin. Cotswolds Dry. A fantastic gin. Maybe my favourite
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
Of course they work. Russia would have been colonised about 60 years ago otherwise.
The terrifying thing is that so much effort is being made by western propagandists on certain websites to spread the idea that they don't work, or that they might work if launched but the commanders would never manage to launch them successfully, or if they did launch some it would only be a few that managed to get through to targets, so few as to make WW3 an utterly good idea if Russia doesn't act as the USA wants it to.
One inconvenient thing for those who are spreading such evil war propaganda is that the whole of US nuclear weapons policy, as well as the existence of NATO etc., has been predicated on the idea that Soviet and now Russian strategic nukes actually do work. So if only all the western strategists between say 1950 and 2020 could have seen ahead a few decades and got their wisdom from Twitter...
The reason that Russia has not been “colonised” is largely to do with the fact that aside from Adolf Hitler, no one wanted to.
If Putin hadn’t been stupid enough to start this war, Nordstream 2 would have been up and running, and my how the money would have rolled in….
Far from attacking Russia people were making all kind of allowances for the foul behaviour of its leadership.
It took Putin waving his Big Weapons to unite everyone in Europe against him. If he carries on he might get Ireland and Switzerland into the alliance against him.
I’m beginning to think that there is a strong moral* case for all out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine, despite having been dead against this until recently.
Sure, it has risks. Ww3 chief amongst them. But I think we are caught in a fairly binary choice at the moment with likely poor outcomes on both sides…either:
1. We allow Putin to very clearly commit war crimes on UKR civilians, and send a global message that the global rules-based order is toothless and irrelevant, or
2. We say enough is enough, mobilise to defend UKR as a proxy for the right of nations everywhere to expect the rules-based order to apply to them, and risk the consequences.
I’m not suggesting 2 lightly, but I think the moral consequences of 1 are far worse, long term, than many of us have really had a chance to think through. I am beginning to think we need to defend, visibly and with force, our view of how the world should work.
*I suspect, but don’t know, that politically this would be very difficult, especially for Biden in run up to midterms. But that doesn’t affect the moral case.
A Frenchwoman told me that it is quite wrong to think the French think mint sauce is the best English culinary joke, what is even funnier is the concept of "night starvation" (which, per the Horlicks label, is the inevitable consequence of going to bed without your horlicks).
The contrast between the articulate and competent Sturgeon and beleaguered and hopeless looking Truss must be worrying for Scottish Unionists. The contrast is off the scale
What? The cut-the-bottom-off-the-doors administration? The ferry-non-acquiring administration?
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
Or on the votes of folk who can't/won't spell his name correctly.
Ha! Can't, in this case. Sorry Keir.
SIR Keir. We'll get there eventually.
Bit odd for an equalitarianism to insist on titles ?
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih) http://donorbox.org/freearmyukraine
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
Of course they work. Russia would have been colonised about 60 years ago otherwise.
The terrifying thing is that so much effort is being made by western propagandists on certain websites to spread the idea that they don't work, or that they might work if launched but the commanders would never manage to launch them successfully, or if they did launch some it would only be a few that managed to get through to targets, so few as to make WW3 an utterly good idea if Russia doesn't act as the USA wants it to.
One inconvenient thing for those who are spreading such evil war propaganda is that the whole of US nuclear weapons policy, as well as the existence of NATO etc., has been predicated on the idea that Soviet and now Russian strategic nukes actually do work. So if only all the western strategists between say 1950 and 2020 could have seen ahead a few decades and got their wisdom from Twitter...
The reason that Russia has not been “colonised” is largely to do with the fact that aside from Adolf Hitler, no one wanted to.
If Putin hadn’t been stupid enough to start this war, Nordstream 2 would have been up and running, and my how the money would have rolled in….
Far from attacking Russia people were making all kind of allowances for the foul behaviour of its leadership.
It took Putin waving his Big Weapons to unite everyone in Europe against him. If he carries on he might get Ireland and Switzerland into the alliance against him.
He could have just sat back and raked in huge amounts of cash, acting like a bully toward his neighbours from time to time and make believing that the whole world was out to get Russia.
Instead he seems to have wanted a legacy as a conqueror, the guy so powerful he changed the world, and was not content to simply live out his days as a super rich autocrat.
Here's another thing - the Bank of England has so far only spent £3bn out of the reported £65bn.
And they are buying the wrong assets - conventional gilts rather than index-linked gilts which is the core of the pensions market.
The BoE's intervention has just slowed down the run on UK government debt, UK corporate bonds and UK property funds, but it hasn't stopped it.
Index linked gilts surely can't be seen as the core of the pensions market, as you put it. Fund managers really don't like them.
They are probably the single biggest holding for most DB pension schemes as they are a good match for inflation-linked pension payments.
They've generally traded on a negative real yield though. Why would fund managers choose such a thing? I've generally assumed that the holders were pretty much all banks with their arms twisted.
I admit my 'Fund managers don't like them' was the case many years ago rather than based on any recent experience.
I’m beginning to think that there is a strong moral* case for all out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine, despite having been dead against this until recently.
Sure, it has risks. Ww3 chief amongst them. But I think we are caught in a fairly binary choice at the moment with likely poor outcomes on both sides…either:
1. We allow Putin to very clearly commit war crimes on UKR civilians, and send a global message that the global rules-based order is toothless and irrelevant, or
2. We say enough is enough, mobilise to defend UKR as a proxy for the right of nations everywhere to expect the rules-based order to apply to them, and risk the consequences.
I’m not suggesting 2 lightly, but I think the moral consequences of 1 are far worse, long term, than many of us have really had a chance to think through. I am beginning to think we need to defend, visibly and with force, our view of how the world should work.
*I suspect, but don’t know, that politically this would be very difficult, especially for Biden in run up to midterms. But that doesn’t affect the moral case.
I’m beginning to think that there is a strong moral* case for all out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine, despite having been dead against this until recently.
Sure, it has risks. Ww3 chief amongst them. But I think we are caught in a fairly binary choice at the moment with likely poor outcomes on both sides…either:
1. We allow Putin to very clearly commit war crimes on UKR civilians, and send a global message that the global rules-based order is toothless and irrelevant, or
2. We say enough is enough, mobilise to defend UKR as a proxy for the right of nations everywhere to expect the rules-based order to apply to them, and risk the consequences.
I’m not suggesting 2 lightly, but I think the moral consequences of 1 are far worse, long term, than many of us have really had a chance to think through. I am beginning to think we need to defend, visibly and with force, our view of how the world should work.
*I suspect, but don’t know, that politically this would be very difficult, especially for Biden in run up to midterms. But that doesn’t affect the moral case.
Interesting that the russians bailed out Donald Trump when he was about to file bankruptcy in 2004. How much does Trump owe to the Russians and how does this impact his statements
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
A bit of perspective is needed.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Because Putin went after infrastructure, not people. It wasn't Dresden or Coventry
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣ @FreeCiviliansUA · 33m 🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time: Lviv Ternopil Rivne Khmelnyitsky Zhytomyr Kyiv/Kyiv Obl. Cherkasy Chernihiv Sumy Poltava Kharkiv Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih) http://donorbox.org/freearmyukraine
This only works for Putin if he can keep it up. Imagine Kyiv enduring a Ukrainian winter with no power. Is it even possible?
Oh no, not a power cut for a few hours
Having no power or water for a day or two, was perfectly normal in Ukraine before the war. It won’t be a problem during the war either. People cope, because people do that, especially when there’s a wider context of a madman trying to take over their way of life.
How are the residents of the leafy parts of London 2022, going to react if there’s no power for a few hours this winter?
In Johannesburg - and many other South African cities - you have several hours of "load shedding" every single day. No power, no lights, the traffic lights are gone.
Hi brains trust - some advice needed. Our remortgage was supposed to be today. According to Lloyds, the lender, it’s completed, and I can see the mortgage online. However the online solicitors, Optima, have failed to complete today. What happens next? Is it just a case of they try again tomorrow? Or will they need a new redemption certificate? All very annoying. Help please!
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
Of course they work. Russia would have been colonised about 60 years ago otherwise.
The terrifying thing is that so much effort is being made by western propagandists on certain websites to spread the idea that they don't work, or that they might work if launched but the commanders would never manage to launch them successfully, or if they did launch some it would only be a few that managed to get through to targets, so few as to make WW3 an utterly good idea if Russia doesn't act as the USA wants it to.
One inconvenient thing for those who are spreading such evil war propaganda is that the whole of US nuclear weapons policy, as well as the existence of NATO etc., has been predicated on the idea that Soviet and now Russian strategic nukes actually do work. So if only all the western strategists between say 1950 and 2020 could have seen ahead a few decades and got their wisdom from Twitter...
Who was colonising people 60 years ago, you wombat, and why didn't the US subjugate Russia and indeed the world in 1945 when it had nukes and nobody else did?
You are a bunch of laughably incompetent pussies and your nuclear weapons are as dysfunctional as your nano penises. Also, President Putin began to transition two years ago and had a vaginoplasty on Thursday.
A Frenchwoman told me that it is quite wrong to think the French think mint sauce is the best English culinary joke, what is even funnier is the concept of "night starvation" (which, per the Horlicks label, is the inevitable consequence of going to bed without your horlicks).
I'm happy for you that it wasn't a French man suggesting that mint sauce was not the finest thing to go with lamb ever invented. You'd surely have been involved in an unnecessary duel.
Zelensky’s had a busy day on the phone, he’s spoken to several of the G7 leaders.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1579476434711904257 “ I've had a phone call with Prime Minister @trussliz . We count on 🇬🇧's leadership in consolidating international political and defense support for Ukraine, in particular regarding the protection of our skies. And also in the further isolation of Russia.”
I’m beginning to think that there is a strong moral* case for all out NATO assault on Russian forces in Ukraine, despite having been dead against this until recently.
Sure, it has risks. Ww3 chief amongst them. But I think we are caught in a fairly binary choice at the moment with likely poor outcomes on both sides...
"I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, Mr President. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks..."
In March 2004, Surovikin was accused by Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Chibizov of beating him up for voting for the wrong candidate. In April, division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin.[5] In both cases, a military prosecutor found no evidence of guilt.[8]
Mind you I'd want to interview the district deputy commander before forming a view on the incident.
More to the point, he’s experienced in mass murder.
It seems like we are doomed to repeat the Tory PM experience with Russian political and military leaders. Each one worse than the last. Until, hopefully, the final one is so incompetent that they collapse the whole apparatus.
Here's another thing - the Bank of England has so far only spent £3bn out of the reported £65bn.
And they are buying the wrong assets - conventional gilts rather than index-linked gilts which is the core of the pensions market.
The BoE's intervention has just slowed down the run on UK government debt, UK corporate bonds and UK property funds, but it hasn't stopped it.
Index linked gilts surely can't be seen as the core of the pensions market, as you put it. Fund managers really don't like them.
They are probably the single biggest holding for most DB pension schemes as they are a good match for inflation-linked pension payments.
They've generally traded on a negative real yield though. Why would fund managers choose such a thing? I've generally assumed that the holders were pretty much all banks with their arms twisted.
I admit my 'Fund managers don't like them' was the case many years ago rather than based on any recent experience.
A pension fund manager chooses such a thing because in a future scenario where inflation in high, the real-terms loss is less than that of other 'safe' assets.
But I see that index-linked gilts are now trading at prices which will give positive real returns. Looks like a great opportunity for pension funds.
A couple of thoughts on the incoming fiscal fking & where Truss/Kwarteng go from here;
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
1. No, because it is her entire figleaf for the rest of the mini budget despite not being part of the mini budget at all
2. Drop the NHS thing, I appreciate it is anti-oldie but it will be presented as anti Our NHS. Reframe falling house prices as being the party of More Housing in the tradition of Macmillan. Also, reform as a new party so as to ditch the entire current membership and get out of the membership vote for leader.
1. Ping is spot on, it is the antithesis of all the rest of her messaging and ideology - and there are better options out there. Ping is also right, promising all the way to the election was even more stupid than Labours six months at a time proposal of the same thing, so plenty of room to morph it into a variable price cap. I have actually posted before, being told to change that policy actually leaves Truss with a stronger saner policy. Variable price cap is better targeted where needed, doesn’t waste billions on those who don’t need it and virtually pays for itself. So how does it get ditched? I was hoping the OBR would slam borrowing a quarter of a trillion right now for such a dumb regressive policy as bad for UK so go use variable price cap instead - but I have doubts now the OBR is actually on the side of Britains long term interest and not in part reliant on government for its existence, much like a praetorian guard reluctant to dump on an emperor. As government say they will pay for it on the government credit card, maybe they can’t get the loan cheap enough so abandon it themselves.
Comments
Харьков_Живет Kharkiv_Lives
@HarZizn
The energy infrastructure of #Kharkiv was fired upon by three rockets. Power supply was partially restored by the evening, water supply was not #War_in_Ukraine
https://twitter.com/HarZizn/status/1579502937126342656?s=20&t=Tp-RkbEHU7Bgwi4N4GMT5w
Energy already back on. Water not
Cities can repair themselves quickly. So Putin's tactic only works if he has the means to pound Ukraine relentlessly
On UKR, remember that 7.5 million have left Ukraine, and 8 million have been displaced within Ukraine, and X million (I don't know the exact number) have been deported to Russia / left for Russia. Which is one of many reasons why those fake referenda were straight out of Putin's backside.
The biggest positive of the current polls is that Kier won't be reliant on the SNP for the next government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lHgbbM9pu4
Its's Real!
Its a Faaaaake
It's REAL!!!!!
etc
That ended well for the Soviets I seem to recall.
A couple of hours ago, the Ukrainians were reporting 11 dead and 89 injured from today's attacks. No doubt the numbers will grow a bit. Maybe 25, possibly even a few more than that, but surely the total is clearly going to be far short of 100.
Yet the scenario you are painting is more like what happened to Japan in 1945. Then, on 9-10 March, somewhere in the region of 100,000 died in Tokyo in a firestorm caused by conventional bombing.
There's absolutely no comparison.
Can't believe I didn't see this one sooner, this was posted by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine
https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1578636142055870464
Is that too hard to understand?
He was also quite successful. As of this moment, several parts of Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities have no power
Free Army of Civilians in Ukraine*️⃣
@FreeCiviliansUA
·
33m
🔴Regions with severe power disruptions in #Ukraine at 20-00 local time:
Lviv
Ternopil
Rivne
Khmelnyitsky
Zhytomyr
Kyiv/Kyiv Obl.
Cherkasy
Chernihiv
Sumy
Poltava
Kharkiv
Dnipropetrovsk (sp. Kryvyi Rih)
http://donorbox.org/freearmyukraine
https://twitter.com/FreeCiviliansUA/status/1579519578467889153?s=20&t=Tp-RkbEHU7Bgwi4N4GMT5w
This only works for Putin if he can keep it up. Imagine Kyiv enduring a Ukrainian winter with no power. Is it even possible?
AP Europe
@AP_Europe
·
8h
A power outage hit Denmark's island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, with authorities saying that an underwater cable from Sweden that provides electricity had been cut. The cause is under investigation.
Insane numbers.
Be interesting to hear how much desk banging there is at the Truss meets the backbenchers event this week.
And yes, can the Kantor defy gravity a second time, it’s last poll taken just on the cusp of the keirplunk starting, my guess something around 27 v 44 is Kantors own version of a 32 lead from yougov and although the smallest gap by far will prove absolutely unreal from them, if I guess right.
Even the "Brexit will allow British people to decide how they are governed" argument looks a bit thin right now.
*Ducks For Cover*
Time for Truss and Kwarteng to go and bring in Sunak who at least predicted this and would have a chance of stabilising the markets
Having no power or water for a day or two, was perfectly normal in Ukraine before the war. It won’t be a problem during the war either. People cope, because people do that, especially when there’s a wider context of a madman trying to take over their way of life.
How are the residents of the leafy parts of London 2022, going to react if there’s no power for a few hours this winter?
There is no purpose to politics. The Tories are over and Labour will be as popular as Thrush within 6 months of winning. I actually dreamt Truss called a snap GE and the Tories got a majority of 3 because Rees Mogg held on by a handful of votes and everyone except the Tories forgot to put up a candidate in Cannock Chase.
For a while i'll just post on the gloomy stuff, politics, local by elections and polls will be one sided for a good few months
This is a wartime crisis even if we are not actually at war, yet
I can even foresee a Wartime Coalition if things get worse. And they are going to get worse
Quite hard to sing if your eyes are frozen shut and you can't see the old joanna
You are falling into an abyss of hyperbole.
As I've said a few times, he will be begging Beijing to help. And they might just do that - for two reasons. They don't want Putin to lose and be toppled, and they also don't want him to escalate and go nuclear
Helping him win with "conventional" weapons achieves China's objectives
Utterly clueless. Would be hilarious if it wasn’t so serious.
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
Zaluzhnyi tweets about today's attack. Russians basically used almost every missile type in their arsenal as well as Iranian UAVs. Ukrainians shot down more than 50%.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1579529765274660865
He might have to say yes if things degenerate, or risk looking like hes cashing in on misery
Your proposal would be a good one of that wasn't the case. As it stands, you're suggesting mass company bankruptcies and cash calls from their pension funds.
The funding level of schemes has also improved dramatically over recent years so are no longer such a drain on companies. They have a liquidity crisis now a solvency one.
This all imploding just shifts that crisis onto the sponsoring companies.
I've said multiple times today that Putin surely doesn't have enough missiles/drones as things stand. So this tactic fails AS THINGS STAND
But wars evolve quickly and chaotically. If Putin can persuade China to help out an old pal... (see my point below)
When I was looking at the early Coronavirus threads, the other day, I checked your responses. For a long while you were in stubborn and ludicrous denial. You are lucky you wised up just in time to make money
Didn’t they see how well that went, when they last tried it back in February?
"in 2004, he upbraided one of his subordinates so severely that the scolded subordinate shot himself"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-s-attack-dog-brings-a-terrible-new-type-of-warfare-to-ukraine
Sounds like a diamond geezer
And they are buying the wrong assets - conventional gilts rather than index-linked gilts which is the core of the pensions market.
The BoE's intervention has just slowed down the run on UK government debt, UK corporate bonds and UK property funds, but it hasn't stopped it.
From the website of the Pension Protection Fund:
"How we’re funded. We’re a public corporation but we’re not funded by the government or the taxpayer."
https://www.fscs.org.uk/about-us/funding/#:~:text=we are funded-,How we are funded,cost of running our service.
Sources of funding:
1 - Assets taken ove from failed pension funds.
2 - Reclaiming money from employers who have gone bust.
3 - A Levy from extant pensions schemes.
4 - Growing the assets in 1.
I'd say first call would be an increase in the levy in 3.
"Xi is wedded to Putin's war because China has much to gain geopolitically from a Russian victory"
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/06/xi-putin-china-russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-sco/
Ditto this writer
https://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/15/xi-jinping-wont-ditch-vladimir-putin-for-now
In March 2004, Surovikin was accused by Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Chibizov of beating him up for voting for the wrong candidate. In April, division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin.[5] In both cases, a military prosecutor found no evidence of guilt.[8]
Mind you I'd want to interview the district deputy commander before forming a view on the incident.
But seriously, a poster has just this minute said you are "falling into an abyss of hyperbole" and I'm afraid I have to agree. Get off the keyboard, have a mug of ovaltine and a gingernut.
1. Could Truss ditch the energy price guarantee? Or shorten the duration considerably? Would be ideologically consistent with Trussonomics & save ££££.
2. Her disastrous polling actually opens up an intriguing opportunity for the tories to jettison their client vote. Ditch the pensioners. Throw them to the wolves. A lifetime cap on NHS care costs. Ditch the triple lock. No pensions bail outs. Cheer on falling house prices. Fk it, go hell for leather for the next 2 years. A manifesto to deliver a landslide in 2034.
A Tory rebirth.
I don’t think either are likely, but perhaps this is the time to think outside the box.
WW2 on the home front was a lot shittier than the Brexiter myth. A time when landladies sent Land Girls to work on a beetroot sandwich.
You literally cause a section (or sections) of bridge to jump into the air. These are generally held in position by the weight and a free to move a bit for expansion and loading effects. We are not talking vast distances either - the order of inches.
What goes up must come down. And bridge sections are not designed to be dropped. So they break when the smash back down again….
And I can categorically assure you, from experience of having lived through one in the past, that the people who would be most badly hit by big house-price falls aren't elderly house owners (who would be completely or largely unaffected), but youngish families with big mortgages.
2. Drop the NHS thing, I appreciate it is anti-oldie but it will be presented as anti Our NHS. Reframe falling house prices as being the party of More Housing in the tradition of Macmillan. Also, reform as a new party so as to ditch the entire current membership and get out of the membership vote for leader.
See also Horlicks.
I shall have a gin, and maybe catch some House of Dragons
But my way of dealing with bad news is to take it all on the chin, absorb, process and extrapolate it as fast as possible, doomscroll myself stupid for a day or two, and then I can psychologically move on. And in the last few days there has been quite a lot of seriously bad news
It may come across as hyperbole but it's actually me trying to be as rational as possible, and not give in to wishful thinking or normalcy bias. It has worked in the past. I apologise if it appears mad
Anyway, yes, gin. Cotswolds Dry. A fantastic gin. Maybe my favourite
https://www.masterofmalt.com/gin/cotswolds/cotswolds-dry-gin/
If Putin hadn’t been stupid enough to start this war, Nordstream 2 would have been up and running, and my how the money would have rolled in….
Far from attacking Russia people were making all kind of allowances for the foul behaviour of its leadership.
It took Putin waving his Big Weapons to unite everyone in Europe against him. If he carries on he might get Ireland and Switzerland into the alliance against him.
Sure, it has risks. Ww3 chief amongst them. But I think we are caught in a fairly binary choice at the moment with likely poor outcomes on both sides…either:
1. We allow Putin to very clearly commit war crimes on UKR civilians, and send a global message that the global rules-based order is toothless and irrelevant, or
2. We say enough is enough, mobilise to defend UKR as a proxy for the right of nations everywhere to expect the rules-based order to apply to them, and risk the consequences.
I’m not suggesting 2 lightly, but I think the moral consequences of 1 are far worse, long term, than many of us have really had a chance to think through. I am beginning to think we need to defend, visibly and with force, our view of how the world should work.
*I suspect, but don’t know, that politically this would be very difficult, especially for Biden in run up to midterms. But that doesn’t affect the moral case.
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/1579442455396880388?t=Uw9DikjKijltBIMBO1FHcA&s=19
A Frenchwoman told me that it is quite wrong to think the French think mint sauce is the best English culinary joke, what is even funnier is the concept of "night starvation" (which, per the Horlicks label, is the inevitable consequence of going to bed without your horlicks).
Instead he seems to have wanted a legacy as a conqueror, the guy so powerful he changed the world, and was not content to simply live out his days as a super rich autocrat.
I admit my 'Fund managers don't like them' was the case many years ago rather than based on any recent experience.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-advises-its-citizens-leave-belarus-2022-10-10/
And you know what, people survive.
Help please!
You are a bunch of laughably incompetent pussies and your nuclear weapons are as dysfunctional as your nano penises. Also, President Putin began to transition two years ago and had a vaginoplasty on Thursday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1579476434711904257
“ I've had a phone call with Prime Minister @trussliz
. We count on 🇬🇧's leadership in consolidating international political and defense support for Ukraine, in particular regarding the protection of our skies. And also in the further isolation of Russia.”
Andy Bruce
@BruceReuters
Translation:
Analysts from America's largest bank think the government's actions have permanently raised the cost of UK government borrowing.
https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1579492487370280962
But I see that index-linked gilts are now trading at prices which will give positive real returns. Looks like a great opportunity for pension funds.