In Nicola Sturgeon's last three SNP conference speeches combined, she mentioned Labour precisely once. But they got a whole section in this speech...talk of Keir Starmer being "willing to chuck Scotland under Boris Johnson's Brexit bus to get the keys to Downing Street". https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1579488763474235392
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
I missed this. Agriculture *is* heavily subsidised. At the moment, there are subsidies for rewilding, a one-off payment for leaving the industry altogether, subsidies for various environmental initiatives, but not subsidies based on volume of food produced. That's an active disincentive to grow food, and an active incentive to put a solar farm up, not the other way around.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
In terms of armageddon, our current focus should be financial rather than nuclear. Europe is on the brink, led by the UK and Italy. Pillar of salt conditions. Its really not about a mini budget now, its about the catastrophic cost of covid management worldwide leaving everyone in default 'basket case' mode once you apply war and energy crises to the mix. I'm relatively poorly off these days, i expect a lot of you will be joining me. Get used to a make do and mend mentality and sell your overpriced plimsoles whilst there are buyers. Nuclear wise Russia hasnt moved any assets into position so would be limited in what it could fire off short term. About 500 sub warheads but at least half of them will be in port and a few dozen each of fixed silo ICBMs and heavy bombers, the rest are the bulk of 1000 or so truck silo type in standby locations amongst 7 regiments that survelillance will spot moving the moment they set out. I would estimate right now Russia might get 300 warheads off, and maybe half work and get through defences which would be extremely grim but the response would be overwhelming wiping out every sub base, nuke storage location, silo, and then anything truck silo sized that moved after would be immediately targetted if that didnt force complete capitulation. Hence Russia won't start anything till it moves ordnance into position for an all out response or attack. Thats when to really panic, thats when we are properly at '62 levels of hold in for dear life.
Trouble is, what if the Tories dump Truss and install Sunak and that doesn't fix anything - and debt still spirals out of control?
I'm not sure anything is going to work, financial markets are now uncovering trillions in DB pension liabilities that looked far away 10-20 years ago but now don't look that far off and the government has got no idea how to fund them, the state pension and rising healthcare costs without pushing taxes up to stifling rates.
In the end an IMF bailout with the condition of forcing a 30-50% haricut on DB pensioners might be the only way out.
You focus on DB pensions is becoming and obsession Max. It's not DB pensions that have caused the public finance crisis it's this f*cking awful, inept, neoliberal government.
The idea that our current travails have not been in the making for more than a decade is an embarrassment for anyone who aims to be seen as an intelligent adult commentor to express.
As is the idea that Truss has done anything other than make them worse.
Trouble is, what if the Tories dump Truss and install Sunak and that doesn't fix anything - and debt still spirals out of control?
I'm not sure anything is going to work, financial markets are now uncovering trillions in DB pension liabilities that looked far away 10-20 years ago but now don't look that far off and the government has got no idea how to fund them, the state pension and rising healthcare costs without pushing taxes up to stifling rates.
In the end an IMF bailout with the condition of forcing a 30-50% haricut on DB pensioners might be the only way out.
You focus on DB pensions is becoming and obsession Max. It's not DB pensions that have caused the public finance crisis it's this f*cking awful, inept, neoliberal government.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
Or waiting until the DB pensioners are dead by which time the country will be impoverished and the retirees of the future will have spent their lives working to pay for DBs their own elders got but they won't.
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
In about three weeks we won't be able to afford sheds, let alone new houses, so this will all be academic
The UK is about to implode
I'm going to have another coffee
Define implode. OK so its an improvement from "explode" thanks to Russian re-entry vehicles raining down from the SS18 warhead bus which was your previous flap.
Implode from...? I have a long list of reasons why we are fucked and who fucked up. Perhaps we share some issues though perhaps from opposite sides of the fence.
"Implode" as in sovereign debt crisis - as @kyf_100 said earlier
"A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay its bills. But this doesn't happen overnight—there are plenty of warning signs. It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons.
The first sign appears when the country finds it cannot get a low interest rate from lenders. Amid concerns the country will go into debt default, investors become concerned that the country cannot afford to pay the bonds.
As lenders start to worry, they require higher and higher yields to offset their risk. The higher the yields, the more it costs the country to refinance its sovereign debt. In time, it cannot afford to keep rolling over debt. Consequently, it defaults. Investors' fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That happened to Greece, Italy, and Spain. It led to the European debt crisis. It also happened when Iceland took over the country's bank debt, causing the value of its currency to plummet."
Unfortunately, that sounds like the UK right now, hopefully we can steer away from the nastiest rocks
I do have to laugh. That moron Liam Byrne left the infamous "there is no money left" note which the Tories still think was factual. We couldn't run out of cash then and we can't do so now - we print the money our debt is denominated in.
Our problem isn't a sovereign debt crisis, its a sovereign borrowing crisis. We can pay every penny of debt we hold. And some isn't debt as we owe it to ourselves. The problem is we can't sell new debt or at least not at a price we're willing to accept...
A sovereign debt crisis is simply a country which can't pay its bills, as the definition say. Being able to create pounds does not really solve the problem
If the markets totally lose faith in the UK economy then we can't just print eighty jizillion spunk-quids, because then we would become Zimbabwe
We can to pay the current creditors. We just then lose our ability to sell any future debt. So we can't go bust now, but we can face a serious cash flow crisis...
The reality is simple. Our government and their plans are not trusted. We need a new government who talks sense and has plans which don't fuck over working people to benefit Tory donors and don't collapse the markets. The only choice is Rishi Sunak who identified all of these problems and had a plan.
We agree!
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
I missed this. Agriculture *is* heavily subsidised. At the moment, there are subsidies for rewilding, a one-off payment for leaving the industry altogether, subsidies for various environmental initiatives, but not subsidies based on volume of food produced. That's an active disincentive to grow food, and an active incentive to put a solar farm up, not the other way around.
There is no incentive to put a solar farm up, since solar farms aren't subsidised, unlike growing food or rewilding.
If the farmer thinks its worthwhile to put in a solar farm then they're doing so despite the incentives, not because of them.
Trouble is, what if the Tories dump Truss and install Sunak and that doesn't fix anything - and debt still spirals out of control?
I'm not sure anything is going to work, financial markets are now uncovering trillions in DB pension liabilities that looked far away 10-20 years ago but now don't look that far off and the government has got no idea how to fund them, the state pension and rising healthcare costs without pushing taxes up to stifling rates.
In the end an IMF bailout with the condition of forcing a 30-50% haricut on DB pensioners might be the only way out.
You focus on DB pensions is becoming and obsession Max. It's not DB pensions that have caused the public finance crisis it's this f*cking awful, inept, neoliberal government.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
Or waiting until the DB pensioners are dead by which time the country will be impoverished and the retirees of the future will have spent their lives working to pay for DBs their own elders got but they won't.
Ultimately for industry the solution will just become big corporate bankruptcies and new entrants without the same encumbrances being able to out compete those that do stealing market share and offering better/cheaper services. The worry is that foreign competitors will fill that gap rather than home grown companies.
For the state, I have no idea what will happen, but it's going to take someone with planet sized bollocks to do it.
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
i shouldn't mock but if building solar farms isn't profitable they aren't going to be a problem.
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
I missed this. Agriculture *is* heavily subsidised. At the moment, there are subsidies for rewilding, a one-off payment for leaving the industry altogether, subsidies for various environmental initiatives, but not subsidies based on volume of food produced. That's an active disincentive to grow food, and an active incentive to put a solar farm up, not the other way around.
The active disincentive to grow food is that they so often lose money doing so. Consumers can't afford a sharp increase in food prices, and besides which imported food is subsidised. So we also need to subsidise food so that we can grow more of it. But the government thinks subsidy is communism, and anything the EU did was evil, so bin it all. Hence why farmers are so interested in solar panels, because with the price of power as high as it is they actually make some money.
In terms of armageddon, our current focus should be financial rather than nuclear. Europe is on the brink, led by the UK and Italy. Pillar of salt conditions. Its really not about a mini budget now, its about the catastrophic cost of covid management worldwide leaving everyone in default 'basket case' mode once you apply war and energy crises to the mix. I'm relatively poorly off these days, i expect a lot of you will be joining me. Get used to a make do and mend mentality and sell your overpriced plimsoles whilst there are buyers. Nuclear wise Russia hasnt moved any assets into position so would be limited in what it could fire off short term. About 500 sub warheads but at least half of them will be in port and a few dozen each of fixed silo ICBMs and heavy bombers, the rest are the bulk of 1000 or so truck silo type in standby locations amongst 7 regiments that survelillance will spot moving the moment they set out. I would estimate right now Russia might get 300 warheads off, and maybe half work and get through defences which would be extremely grim but the response would be overwhelming wiping out every sub base, nuke storage location, silo, and then anything truck silo sized that moved after would be immediately targetted if that didnt force complete capitulation. Hence Russia won't start anything till it moves ordnance into position for an all out response or attack. Thats when to really panic, thats when we are properly at '62 levels of hold in for dear life.
Shouldn't you look at both sides' array of weaponry (both as weapons and as targets, as you do for Russia's weapons here) in order to get a handle on what level we're at?
"there is panic in government about investors demanding a higher risk premium (a greater yield or interest rate) for investing in UK government debt (gilts). So much for the Truss/Kwarteng determination to crush Treasury orthodoxy. Kwarteng has decided to hug the orthodox…"
This is the only idea of theirs that I've instantly thought: Yes, good
There is something ugly about farmland being used in this way. Literally and morally
Why is it worse than using it for building houses?
After all, it's less damaging to the land and considerably more easily reversed.
Moreover, they look prettier than most modern housing developments.
The ugliness of modern UK housing developments is one of the most depressing aspects of a depressing time
All that sludgy red brick, the poxy cul de sacs with their pathetic driveways, the total inability to develop proper European urbanism: shops bars places squares. And we used to be great at this!
Let King Charles design everything
Poundbry is not very good. But it is better than many “expert” designs.
Congratulations to British town planners - more shit at their job than a bloke with no training.
I know little about Poundbury (drove past when I think is a new part being built over the summer, but have never visited). From pictures it seems a little whimsical and a mish-mash architecturally (as is my own village), but the important question is:
Does it work as a settlement? Is it a good, livable community?
Yes, it works
"House prices remain buoyant, and Conibear believes it’s not simply the high standard of building but the “favourability of the environment”. Depending on access to garages and private gardens, two-bedroom apartments and semi-detached homes in Poundbury can start anywhere between £190,000 and £275,000. Many of the three-bedroom detached homes go for somewhere between £325,000 and £400,000."
This is the only idea of theirs that I've instantly thought: Yes, good
There is something ugly about farmland being used in this way. Literally and morally
Why is it worse than using it for building houses?
After all, it's less damaging to the land and considerably more easily reversed.
Moreover, they look prettier than most modern housing developments.
The ugliness of modern UK housing developments is one of the most depressing aspects of a depressing time
All that sludgy red brick, the poxy cul de sacs with their pathetic driveways, the total inability to develop proper European urbanism: shops bars places squares. And we used to be great at this!
Let King Charles design everything
Poundbry is not very good. But it is better than many “expert” designs.
Congratulations to British town planners - more shit at their job than a bloke with no training.
I know little about Poundbury (drove past when I think is a new part being built over the summer, but have never visited). From pictures it seems a little whimsical and a mish-mash architecturally (as is my own village), but the important question is:
Does it work as a settlement? Is it a good, livable community?
Yes, it works
"House prices remain buoyant, and Conibear believes it’s not simply the high standard of building but the “favourability of the environment”. Depending on access to garages and private gardens, two-bedroom apartments and semi-detached homes in Poundbury can start anywhere between £190,000 and £275,000. Many of the three-bedroom detached homes go for somewhere between £325,000 and £400,000."
It does depend on having an established county town - Dorchester - with its facilities as an appendix, rather like Cowley has Oxford as an appendix ... it's not built out in the middle of FA, but is within walking distance of the centre/rail stations, 30 mins or so.
Sure, and it's not perfect, and it is quiet (but the residents presumably like it that way)
The point is it is 3000% better than much of the crap being thrown up around the UK, which has no regard for aesthetics or urbanism at all. And is all in hideous cheap red brick
Not in red brick, but (for some) covered in harling, you know, the stuff you don't like when it is in Scotland. Do you call it rendering or what? Or at least the first part of the project was, though the harling was coming off at least one fairly new house [edit] only a few years on.
The thing that makes the skin on my back creep, as I have I think mentioned here befo,e is the use of different building stones from different bands of the Jurassic belt - normally not found together. Which, to me, gives it the same sort of feeling of transplantation into alien contiguity that one also gets (for laudable reasons) at St Fagans Folk Museum or the Weald and Downland Museum.
But that is a quibble. Most wouldn't even notice it.
The problem is, you kind of do notice. Because living in England, you subconsciously soak up “what goes with what”.
Poundbury is an interesting experiment, a success on some measures and a failure on others.
But it is a living experiment, so hopefully it’s failures can be addressed over time.
More successful than Skelmersdale or that Scottish one which essentially need to be completely demolished.
But, it works
If I took 20 large, random yet comparable new developments (including Poundbury) and asked you which one would you live in, almost certainly it would be Poundbury
Look at all these. Poundbury is nicer than all of them
Soulless boring redbrick mediocrity. At best. Actively horrible at worst
UK housebuilders are lazy and cheapskates. They want to drop the same design of house on different developments across the country, because it is cheaper. At the same time they are also looking for every possible way to pinch pennies.
I live in a 4 year old new build. It wasn't a cheap house. They used the cheapest baths, work surfaces etc. that they could possibly get away with. They even used plastic chrome-effect edging to put around copper pipes so they wouldn't have to use short sections of real chrome pipes for towel radiators.
The houses are all the same as they can then have the same materials list for the same house wherever it is in the country. We agreed to buy our house when it was still early in construction. We asked for some minor changes. The only thing they would agree to was to install network cabling.
There is no incentive to design houses in the UK that are in keeping with the local community and with well thought out connections and infrastructure.
It *was* a cheap house and you have set out why - that you paid a lot is because they made a huge profit. Remember that the proposed shake-up of planning laws will enable Barratt et al to keep building unsuitable cheapo ugly shitboxes for large profits, only this time without having to worry about consent or local democracy.
BTW I bought my own Barratt shitbox in 2005 sold it for a loss in 2021, so I do know how bad some of these are - and the other builder putting up other phases of our huge estate was even worse.
Serious question, how on earth did the house lose value in that period of massive house price rises?
The total collapse of house prices on Teesside. BR always demands the concreting over pf everywhere to build 14 million new houses. Well thats pretty much what happened on Teesside. I lived on part of a development that eventually stretched to 1,400 homes in a small area. Across the border in Boro swathes of new homes. Across the river in Stockton the same. Many thousands of homes added, most of which are "executive-style".
The market fell out of housing in 08/09 and the developers simply undercut the market. So you couldn't sell your house without making a massive loss for more than a decade as new prices were so much lower. Eventually we moved back into positive equity and were lucky to only lose a paper £45k - at least we were able to sell.
So many were vacant repossessions (6 on my street alone at one point) - nobody could afford to buy, and the ones that went for rental brought in various scumbags until the BTL landlords gave up as rental income didn't cover the mortgage. And those went empty. Only the final completion of the development brought stability back to the local market, with prices rebounding thanks to the post-Covid boom (our paper loss would have been £60k without this...)
In other parts of Europe it is quite common, expected even, for newbuild houses to depreciate in value. The sqm valuation is based on how old the building is and if it is and old building, how much maintainence it needs, with the highest value being the first time it is sold. Sometimes the underlying land appreciates in value, other times it depreciates. It seems to me that residential valuations in the UK severely neglect the actual quality of the building.
Instruct 3 valuers to come and value your property and you will likely get 3 wildly different answers. It strikes me that very little thought goes into it.
Generally speaking I think there is a lot of reliance on getting purchasers to self-police the value, particularly by reviewing their building survey and negotiating deductions as appropriate. In a bonkers housing market like we’ve had in recent years though, the ability to do so is constrained by the fact that for most houses there has been (at least!) 4 or 5 competing bids that are ready to go if you’re not happy.
The 'wildly divergent' valuations are not just a feature of the British market, they are everywhere. You only get consistent valuations if there is a street full of the same houses or flats and then the valuation copies the latest sale price. If you have an individual house then there is little to compare it to, the estate agents tend to just ask you what you think it is worth and then that is the valuation.
In about three weeks we won't be able to afford sheds, let alone new houses, so this will all be academic
The UK is about to implode
I'm going to have another coffee
Define implode. OK so its an improvement from "explode" thanks to Russian re-entry vehicles raining down from the SS18 warhead bus which was your previous flap.
Implode from...? I have a long list of reasons why we are fucked and who fucked up. Perhaps we share some issues though perhaps from opposite sides of the fence.
"Implode" as in sovereign debt crisis - as @kyf_100 said earlier
"A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay its bills. But this doesn't happen overnight—there are plenty of warning signs. It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons.
The first sign appears when the country finds it cannot get a low interest rate from lenders. Amid concerns the country will go into debt default, investors become concerned that the country cannot afford to pay the bonds.
As lenders start to worry, they require higher and higher yields to offset their risk. The higher the yields, the more it costs the country to refinance its sovereign debt. In time, it cannot afford to keep rolling over debt. Consequently, it defaults. Investors' fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That happened to Greece, Italy, and Spain. It led to the European debt crisis. It also happened when Iceland took over the country's bank debt, causing the value of its currency to plummet."
Unfortunately, that sounds like the UK right now, hopefully we can steer away from the nastiest rocks
I do have to laugh. That moron Liam Byrne left the infamous "there is no money left" note which the Tories still think was factual. We couldn't run out of cash then and we can't do so now - we print the money our debt is denominated in.
Our problem isn't a sovereign debt crisis, its a sovereign borrowing crisis. We can pay every penny of debt we hold. And some isn't debt as we owe it to ourselves. The problem is we can't sell new debt or at least not at a price we're willing to accept...
A sovereign debt crisis is simply a country which can't pay its bills, as the definition say. Being able to create pounds does not really solve the problem
If the markets totally lose faith in the UK economy then we can't just print eighty jizillion spunk-quids, because then we would become Zimbabwe
We can to pay the current creditors. We just then lose our ability to sell any future debt. So we can't go bust now, but we can face a serious cash flow crisis...
The reality is simple. Our government and their plans are not trusted. We need a new government who talks sense and has plans which don't fuck over working people to benefit Tory donors and don't collapse the markets. The only choice is Rishi Sunak who identified all of these problems and had a plan.
We agree!
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
It always had to be Sunak. Its just that the degenerate giffers who make up the bulk of the Tory membership these days believe what they get fed by the manipulative degenerates in the Tory media.
Remove Truss. Install Sunak. Lose the next election by 50 instead of 150 with the economy not completely fucked in the process.
In Scotland, the new housing estates look shit because developers:
- flatten fields so there is no natural undulation - plant zero trees - build houses 2 inches apart (just do colonies!) - make room for two cars in front of every house (do a communal car park in middle) - no cycle/pedestrian provision to town centre so school run has to be done by car
It’s astonishing in a way that such developments are still the preferred model in 2022.
We know so much more about what makes for liveable, sustainable, and even productive development than we did in, say, 1982.
I think there is likely to be more pressure for parking in front of the house when they all have to be electric and you want to charge them from your own supply.
we live in flats with a communal car park. we have a designated space but there has been no plan put forward yet for how we might charge an electric car there. adding a charging point to each space sounds expensive. and would it connect to our supply or would the freeholder install their own system and charge us both to have it installed and fleece us as a monopoly provider for the electricity?
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
I missed this. Agriculture *is* heavily subsidised. At the moment, there are subsidies for rewilding, a one-off payment for leaving the industry altogether, subsidies for various environmental initiatives, but not subsidies based on volume of food produced. That's an active disincentive to grow food, and an active incentive to put a solar farm up, not the other way around.
The active disincentive to grow food is that they so often lose money doing so. Consumers can't afford a sharp increase in food prices, and besides which imported food is subsidised. So we also need to subsidise food so that we can grow more of it. But the government thinks subsidy is communism, and anything the EU did was evil, so bin it all. Hence why farmers are so interested in solar panels, because with the price of power as high as it is they actually make some money.
Imported food from New Zealand isn't subsidised, since New Zealand abolished food subsidies, instead it has tariffs. And farmers unions and Remoaner fanatics keep complaining about how our subsidised farmers are going to lose out if they have to compete against unsubsidised Kiwi imports.
New Zealand abolishing tariffs and subsidies made its agriculture sector reform to become productive and competitive allowing them not just to produce more food for themselves, but more to export around the globe too as a result.
In Scotland, the new housing estates look shit because developers:
- flatten fields so there is no natural undulation - plant zero trees - build houses 2 inches apart (just do colonies!) - make room for two cars in front of every house (do a communal car park in middle) - no cycle/pedestrian provision to town centre so school run has to be done by car
It’s astonishing in a way that such developments are still the preferred model in 2022.
We know so much more about what makes for liveable, sustainable, and even productive development than we did in, say, 1982.
I think there is likely to be more pressure for parking in front of the house when they all have to be electric and you want to charge them from your own supply.
we live in flats with a communal car park. we have a designated space but there has been no plan put forward yet for how we might charge an electric car there. adding a charging point to each space sounds expensive. and would it connect to our supply or would the freeholder install their own system and charge us both to have it installed and fleece us as a monopoly provider for the electricity?
They will likely try to fleece you twice - once for the cost of the installation, and then a mark up on the energy.
I’m doubtful a final peace deal can be done in Ukraine. The interests of the two parties are too opposed right now.
What is more likely is an uneasy ceasefire leaving the territories in question either side of a line of control with periodic skirmishes and provocations, similar to India/Pakistan.
A stalemate where Russia holds on to Crimea is unstable. Ukraine would hold the water supply to it.
After the invasion of Crimea a second conflict was inevitable because Crimea is an implausible place for the line to be drawn, which is why we have spent years training the Ukrainian army.
Now either we support Ukraine to liberate Crimea and end the war, or we'll be looking at a third conflict after this one because the line will still be toxic and unstable.
With the Russian military weak and defeated, and Ukraine soon to liberate Kherson and control the water supply into Crimea, now is the time to get the Russians out of Crimea and end this war once and for all.
Very plausible arguments, but of course Russia has successfully held onto Crimea for 8 years - whilst this has caused problems and helped lead us down the path to the current situation, if I were to predict any outcome of this conflict (rather than my own preferred outcome) it would be that we will be seeing a ceasefire with Russia either fully or almost-fully withdrawn from its 2022 incursions, but with Crimea still in Russian hands.
I have no doubt the Ukrainians want to force Russia out of Crimea and I believe that Russia should leave Crimea, but I suspect that there will be not be a neat resolution to this conflict.
Well of course Russia has held onto Crimea for eight years because there's been no further fighting in those eight years, and Ukraine wasn't going to start a conflict in that time.
But having had one started on them, and when they're winning it and liberating their lost territory, why would they agree to stop at liberating all but Crimea, leaving an unstable situation that will see them at loggerheads with Russia again in the future? Why not press the advantage to end this war now, while they can?
If Russia withdraws from Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, then Ukraine joins NATO, this is over. We have stable borders returned to their pre-war point, and the conflict can slowly be put behind us. Any stalemate will just drag the war on and be a thorn in the side that keeps an ongoing risk of new fighting and more nuclear threats but with Russia having had time to regroup and retrain and reequip their forces.
Interesting that Erdogan has told Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine.
Interesting in the sense of what he might have extracted from NATO to say that and whether we're on the hook for any of it you mean.
Certainly seemed at odds with his relationship with Putin, where he has been treading a fine line that keeps him quite chummy.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
Most recent @YouGov@thetimes poll shows that the % who think the government is handling #Brexit badly is at its highest since just after #ge19. https://bit.ly/3udw4mf
In terms of armageddon, our current focus should be financial rather than nuclear. Europe is on the brink, led by the UK and Italy. Pillar of salt conditions. Its really not about a mini budget now, its about the catastrophic cost of covid management worldwide leaving everyone in default 'basket case' mode once you apply war and energy crises to the mix. I'm relatively poorly off these days, i expect a lot of you will be joining me. Get used to a make do and mend mentality and sell your overpriced plimsoles whilst there are buyers. Nuclear wise Russia hasnt moved any assets into position so would be limited in what it could fire off short term. About 500 sub warheads but at least half of them will be in port and a few dozen each of fixed silo ICBMs and heavy bombers, the rest are the bulk of 1000 or so truck silo type in standby locations amongst 7 regiments that survelillance will spot moving the moment they set out. I would estimate right now Russia might get 300 warheads off, and maybe half work and get through defences which would be extremely grim but the response would be overwhelming wiping out every sub base, nuke storage location, silo, and then anything truck silo sized that moved after would be immediately targetted if that didnt force complete capitulation. Hence Russia won't start anything till it moves ordnance into position for an all out response or attack. Thats when to really panic, thats when we are properly at '62 levels of hold in for dear life.
Shouldn't you look at both sides' array of weaponry (both as weapons and as targets, as you do for Russia's weapons here) in order to get a handle on what level we're at?
America has 400 silo based minutemen missiles (yield about 300 to 500kt), a few hundred bomber based nukes, a couple hundred of those in Europe and a few hundred submarine warheads, half of which will be on patrol. Britain has 200 or so Trident warheads on 4 Subs, France has about 275 warheads split between sub based eith a 1 in 4 on patrol order like the UK and the air force can access about 75 warheads.
Truck is totally plausible, but to convince me you need a story that tells me whether the driver is a suicide bomber or not, what the explosive load was, how it was triggered and how it was disguised to pass the visual inspection.
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
"If you don't give me everything I want it's a source of tension"? Well, maybe so. But you're the one causing it, in that case.
"there is panic in government about investors demanding a higher risk premium (a greater yield or interest rate) for investing in UK government debt (gilts). So much for the Truss/Kwarteng determination to crush Treasury orthodoxy. Kwarteng has decided to hug the orthodox…"
In about three weeks we won't be able to afford sheds, let alone new houses, so this will all be academic
The UK is about to implode
I'm going to have another coffee
Define implode. OK so its an improvement from "explode" thanks to Russian re-entry vehicles raining down from the SS18 warhead bus which was your previous flap.
Implode from...? I have a long list of reasons why we are fucked and who fucked up. Perhaps we share some issues though perhaps from opposite sides of the fence.
"Implode" as in sovereign debt crisis - as @kyf_100 said earlier
"A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay its bills. But this doesn't happen overnight—there are plenty of warning signs. It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons.
The first sign appears when the country finds it cannot get a low interest rate from lenders. Amid concerns the country will go into debt default, investors become concerned that the country cannot afford to pay the bonds.
As lenders start to worry, they require higher and higher yields to offset their risk. The higher the yields, the more it costs the country to refinance its sovereign debt. In time, it cannot afford to keep rolling over debt. Consequently, it defaults. Investors' fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That happened to Greece, Italy, and Spain. It led to the European debt crisis. It also happened when Iceland took over the country's bank debt, causing the value of its currency to plummet."
Unfortunately, that sounds like the UK right now, hopefully we can steer away from the nastiest rocks
I do have to laugh. That moron Liam Byrne left the infamous "there is no money left" note which the Tories still think was factual. We couldn't run out of cash then and we can't do so now - we print the money our debt is denominated in.
Our problem isn't a sovereign debt crisis, its a sovereign borrowing crisis. We can pay every penny of debt we hold. And some isn't debt as we owe it to ourselves. The problem is we can't sell new debt or at least not at a price we're willing to accept...
A sovereign debt crisis is simply a country which can't pay its bills, as the definition say. Being able to create pounds does not really solve the problem
If the markets totally lose faith in the UK economy then we can't just print eighty jizillion spunk-quids, because then we would become Zimbabwe
We can to pay the current creditors. We just then lose our ability to sell any future debt. So we can't go bust now, but we can face a serious cash flow crisis...
The reality is simple. Our government and their plans are not trusted. We need a new government who talks sense and has plans which don't fuck over working people to benefit Tory donors and don't collapse the markets. The only choice is Rishi Sunak who identified all of these problems and had a plan.
We agree!
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
It always had to be Sunak. Its just that the degenerate giffers who make up the bulk of the Tory membership these days believe what they get fed by the manipulative degenerates in the Tory media.
Remove Truss. Install Sunak. Lose the next election by 50 instead of 150 with the economy not completely fucked in the process.
What happens to the MPs who lapped up the Truss mantra like Steve Baker and co. We’d be stuck with them agitating with their usual rubbish on the backbenches
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Are we doing Sturgeon to step down by the end of the year bets? So soon? Is it Springtime already?
Do you think the election = referendum idea really works? All depends on that, and it's a long way to Jan 2025 (but I think we'll get an election next year)
Sturgeon was very good on "aggressive unionism" in the speech. Attacks on BBC/NHS being the real threat to the UK, not indy.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
Are we doing Sturgeon to step down by the end of the year bets? So soon? Is it Springtime already?
Do you think the election = referendum idea really works? All depends on that, and it's a long way to Jan 2025 (but I think we'll get an election next year)
Sturgeon was very good on "aggressive unionism" in the speech. Attacks on BBC/NHS being the real threat to the UK, not indy.
It doesn’t - but presumably even more difficult if Labour lead so large nationally
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
In about three weeks we won't be able to afford sheds, let alone new houses, so this will all be academic
The UK is about to implode
I'm going to have another coffee
Define implode. OK so its an improvement from "explode" thanks to Russian re-entry vehicles raining down from the SS18 warhead bus which was your previous flap.
Implode from...? I have a long list of reasons why we are fucked and who fucked up. Perhaps we share some issues though perhaps from opposite sides of the fence.
"Implode" as in sovereign debt crisis - as @kyf_100 said earlier
"A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay its bills. But this doesn't happen overnight—there are plenty of warning signs. It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons.
The first sign appears when the country finds it cannot get a low interest rate from lenders. Amid concerns the country will go into debt default, investors become concerned that the country cannot afford to pay the bonds.
As lenders start to worry, they require higher and higher yields to offset their risk. The higher the yields, the more it costs the country to refinance its sovereign debt. In time, it cannot afford to keep rolling over debt. Consequently, it defaults. Investors' fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That happened to Greece, Italy, and Spain. It led to the European debt crisis. It also happened when Iceland took over the country's bank debt, causing the value of its currency to plummet."
Unfortunately, that sounds like the UK right now, hopefully we can steer away from the nastiest rocks
I do have to laugh. That moron Liam Byrne left the infamous "there is no money left" note which the Tories still think was factual. We couldn't run out of cash then and we can't do so now - we print the money our debt is denominated in.
Our problem isn't a sovereign debt crisis, its a sovereign borrowing crisis. We can pay every penny of debt we hold. And some isn't debt as we owe it to ourselves. The problem is we can't sell new debt or at least not at a price we're willing to accept...
A sovereign debt crisis is simply a country which can't pay its bills, as the definition say. Being able to create pounds does not really solve the problem
If the markets totally lose faith in the UK economy then we can't just print eighty jizillion spunk-quids, because then we would become Zimbabwe
We can to pay the current creditors. We just then lose our ability to sell any future debt. So we can't go bust now, but we can face a serious cash flow crisis...
The reality is simple. Our government and their plans are not trusted. We need a new government who talks sense and has plans which don't fuck over working people to benefit Tory donors and don't collapse the markets. The only choice is Rishi Sunak who identified all of these problems and had a plan.
We agree!
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
It always had to be Sunak. Its just that the degenerate giffers who make up the bulk of the Tory membership these days believe what they get fed by the manipulative degenerates in the Tory media.
Remove Truss. Install Sunak. Lose the next election by 50 instead of 150 with the economy not completely fucked in the process.
Unfortunately I think that our economy and others in the EU are heading for years of cuts, austerity and tax rises which the public have not realised is coming
Truss and Kwarteng are a disaster but even without them the future looks bleak anyway
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
"In today's attacks Russia's been deliberately hitting combined heat and power plants across the country, so that Ukrainians have no electricity and no water during the winter. CHPP infrastructure targeted in at least 11 regions - from Lviv to Zaporizhzhia, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro."
Trouble is, what if the Tories dump Truss and install Sunak and that doesn't fix anything - and debt still spirals out of control?
I'm not sure anything is going to work, financial markets are now uncovering trillions in DB pension liabilities that looked far away 10-20 years ago but now don't look that far off and the government has got no idea how to fund them, the state pension and rising healthcare costs without pushing taxes up to stifling rates.
In the end an IMF bailout with the condition of forcing a 30-50% haricut on DB pensioners might be the only way out.
You focus on DB pensions is becoming and obsession Max. It's not DB pensions that have caused the public finance crisis it's this f*cking awful, inept, neoliberal government.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
Or waiting until the DB pensioners are dead by which time the country will be impoverished and the retirees of the future will have spent their lives working to pay for DBs their own elders got but they won't.
"Starting to think the Tories might be forced by the markets to change leader sooner rather than later."
I think I will die laughing and choking on popcorn if the libertarian, free market obsessive is thrown out by the erm... markets.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
In about three weeks we won't be able to afford sheds, let alone new houses, so this will all be academic
The UK is about to implode
I'm going to have another coffee
Define implode. OK so its an improvement from "explode" thanks to Russian re-entry vehicles raining down from the SS18 warhead bus which was your previous flap.
Implode from...? I have a long list of reasons why we are fucked and who fucked up. Perhaps we share some issues though perhaps from opposite sides of the fence.
"Implode" as in sovereign debt crisis - as @kyf_100 said earlier
"A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay its bills. But this doesn't happen overnight—there are plenty of warning signs. It usually becomes a crisis when the country's leaders ignore these indicators for political reasons.
The first sign appears when the country finds it cannot get a low interest rate from lenders. Amid concerns the country will go into debt default, investors become concerned that the country cannot afford to pay the bonds.
As lenders start to worry, they require higher and higher yields to offset their risk. The higher the yields, the more it costs the country to refinance its sovereign debt. In time, it cannot afford to keep rolling over debt. Consequently, it defaults. Investors' fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That happened to Greece, Italy, and Spain. It led to the European debt crisis. It also happened when Iceland took over the country's bank debt, causing the value of its currency to plummet."
Unfortunately, that sounds like the UK right now, hopefully we can steer away from the nastiest rocks
I do have to laugh. That moron Liam Byrne left the infamous "there is no money left" note which the Tories still think was factual. We couldn't run out of cash then and we can't do so now - we print the money our debt is denominated in.
Our problem isn't a sovereign debt crisis, its a sovereign borrowing crisis. We can pay every penny of debt we hold. And some isn't debt as we owe it to ourselves. The problem is we can't sell new debt or at least not at a price we're willing to accept...
A sovereign debt crisis is simply a country which can't pay its bills, as the definition say. Being able to create pounds does not really solve the problem
If the markets totally lose faith in the UK economy then we can't just print eighty jizillion spunk-quids, because then we would become Zimbabwe
We can to pay the current creditors. We just then lose our ability to sell any future debt. So we can't go bust now, but we can face a serious cash flow crisis...
The reality is simple. Our government and their plans are not trusted. We need a new government who talks sense and has plans which don't fuck over working people to benefit Tory donors and don't collapse the markets. The only choice is Rishi Sunak who identified all of these problems and had a plan.
We agree!
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
It always had to be Sunak. Its just that the degenerate giffers who make up the bulk of the Tory membership these days believe what they get fed by the manipulative degenerates in the Tory media.
Remove Truss. Install Sunak. Lose the next election by 50 instead of 150 with the economy not completely fucked in the process.
Unfortunately I think that our economy and others in the EU are heading for years of cuts, austerity and tax rises which the public have not realised is coming
Truss and Kwarteng are a disaster but even without them the future looks bleak anyway
Everyone is going to be poorer
yes starmer could quickly find himself very unpopular
Well, that's unequivocally true - it removed the one member state that wasn't wholeheartedly committed to the Project.
That is only potentially true now that KamiKwazi has Ratnered the entire UK economy.
When we weren't Greece we were an asset.
Ratner's gaffe was to accidentally reveal the truth about the quality of his products. If you think that's what Truss and Kwarteng have done for the UK economy, then it's the previous governments (going back well before 2016) that you should blame.
Many crops benefit by being grown under solar panels. Irrigation costs are also reduced.
Stopping farmers using solar panels as part of their industrial / commercial mix is unhelpful. If we are talking productivity, and we are, investment in new and innovative production methods is going to be key to driving a 21st century economy.
Ranil Jayawardena is pandering to an outdated fantasy English countryside and failing the country, the environment, and the farmers. We should use what we have efficiently, rewild to support our biodiversity, and invest to reduce our foreign energy dependency. It isn't complicated.
WTF encourage fracking and discourage solar? Is it because they feel oil & gas is how proper blokes do energy and renewables are yet another form of new fangled, post modern, wokery?
1. We have our own currency which we can both print and depreciate allowing businesses in this country to remain competitive. 2. We can therefore avoid default and remain able to pay our vast army of public servants. 3. We have London. 4. We remain the major beneficiary of DFI in Europe, particularly in Fintec. 5. We don't have the ECB threatening to close all our banks if we don't do whatever mad scheme the EU has come up with.
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
"Perhaps most importantly of all, falling gilt prices are synonymous with rising interest rates – and rising interest rates reduce the value of our liabilities. So, the scheme is likely to be in an increasingly good position going forward."
If there ever were an "antigrowth coalition" proposal, you're looking at it.
Completely backwards from the government's professed agenda.
100% agreed.
Utter nonsense pandering to the anti growth coalition of NIMBYs. Inexcusable.
Its the raging hypocrisy which is most funny.
They propose a bonfire of red tape for planning applications for housing and fracking They propose a burden of red tape to dictate planning decisions on private land
What do they want? If they are so against red tape why are they proposing red tape? They are in favour of easier planning whilst proposing a dictatorial planning regime?
This is bullshit. If it weren't for a framework of Government incentives, do you really think it would be more profitable for farmers in rainy Britain to put solar panels all over their land than, you know, grow stuff?
Well let's think about this. Agriculture is heavily subsidised. Solar panels are not.
Hmm, which has an incentive? 🤔
I missed this. Agriculture *is* heavily subsidised. At the moment, there are subsidies for rewilding, a one-off payment for leaving the industry altogether, subsidies for various environmental initiatives, but not subsidies based on volume of food produced. That's an active disincentive to grow food, and an active incentive to put a solar farm up, not the other way around.
The active disincentive to grow food is that they so often lose money doing so. Consumers can't afford a sharp increase in food prices, and besides which imported food is subsidised. So we also need to subsidise food so that we can grow more of it. But the government thinks subsidy is communism, and anything the EU did was evil, so bin it all. Hence why farmers are so interested in solar panels, because with the price of power as high as it is they actually make some money.
Imported food from New Zealand isn't subsidised, since New Zealand abolished food subsidies, instead it has tariffs. And farmers unions and Remoaner fanatics keep complaining about how our subsidised farmers are going to lose out if they have to compete against unsubsidised Kiwi imports.
New Zealand abolishing tariffs and subsidies made its agriculture sector reform to become productive and competitive allowing them not just to produce more food for themselves, but more to export around the globe too as a result.
NZ is about the same size as the UK but less than a tenth of the population - or access to a plethora of other developed markets in the neighbourhood. Self-sufficiency isn't the same challenge there as it is here.
Many crops benefit by being grown under solar panels. Irrigation costs are also reduced.
Stopping farmers using solar panels as part of their industrial / commercial mix is unhelpful. If we are talking productivity, and we are, investment in new and innovative production methods is going to be key to driving a 21st century economy.
Ranil Jayawardena is pandering to an outdated fantasy English countryside and failing the country, the environment, and the farmers. We should use what we have efficiently, rewild to support our biodiversity, and invest to reduce our foreign energy dependency. It isn't complicated.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
Well, that's unequivocally true - it removed the one member state that wasn't wholeheartedly committed to the Project.
That is only potentially true now that KamiKwazi has Ratnered the entire UK economy.
When we weren't Greece we were an asset.
Ratner's gaffe was to accidentally reveal the truth about the quality of his products. If you think that's what Truss and Kwarteng have done for the UK economy, then it's the previous governments (going back well before 2016) that you should blame.
Wow, CCHQ have had a week and more to think about it, and that's the best they've come up with? No, Kwasi didn't reveal the UK economy was as crap as Ratner earrings, he did his best to _make_ it so. Just like Ratner did to his company.
"Perhaps most importantly of all, falling gilt prices are synonymous with rising interest rates – and rising interest rates reduce the value of our liabilities. So, the scheme is likely to be in an increasingly good position going forward."
I have been saying this repeatedly. Rather than being the end of DB schemes increased gilt rates will be their savour. Many schemes will already have switched from deficit to surplus. If gilts increase again the burdened employers will be looking at contribution holidays.
Not so good if you have a large mortgage, of course.
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
Agreed, it is clever. However, being independent means a country makes its own foreign policy and forms partnerships with whoever it likes so long as they're willing. A partnership with a fixed number of other countries forming a group that has a shared foreign policy is not independence. The Isle of Man is sovereign but not independent. (This is why unlike Gibraltar it's not on the UN's list of colonies, the UN being committed on paper to decolonisation.)
Devomax is yesterday's idea. What unionists need to do is reform the union, not just the role of Scotland within it. There has been no will for this yet, unless we count English regionalism which seriously is not going to enthuse anyone.
Wouldn't surprise me if the mad king is behind this. Sturgeon like Salmond before her is a right slurper. (Political sense intended.)
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Calm down. If Belarus starts to try and invade they are going to find the terrain is a death trap for them. It is miles of roads in forests which make them easy prey for any old Ukrainian with a NLAW. If Russia's best troops at the start of the war couldn't do it then Belarus has no chance with whatever scraps of equipment they can get together.
Also need to consider why Russia has never bothered to go after infrastructure before. Either they were stupid or they didn't have the munitions. Now whilst it is tempting to say they are stupid I think the latter is more likely.
I'm sure we both hope that I'm right and you're wrong.
"Perhaps most importantly of all, falling gilt prices are synonymous with rising interest rates – and rising interest rates reduce the value of our liabilities. So, the scheme is likely to be in an increasingly good position going forward."
I have been saying this repeatedly. Rather than being the end of DB schemes increased gilt rates will be their savour. Many schemes will already have switched from deficit to surplus. If gilts increase again the burdened employers will be looking at contribution holidays.
Not so good if you have a large mortgage, of course.
Yes, although the sudden spike in rates has caused a liquidity problem for some schemes which have (unwisely) made excessive use of derivatives to 'reduce risk' (!). It's a short-term problem only, albeit quite a serious one it seems.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
While deleveraging will cause many pension funds to sell assets, there are a number of long-term investors that are ready to buy assets, potentially at a discount.
These include pension funds that have a long-term time horizon and can tolerate lower levels of liquidity. As with any crisis, particularly one involving liquidity, there will be winners and losers.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Team truss keep surprising me with their unconsidered ignorance.
To keep our countryside productive it needs to be biodiverse. Monocultures are vulnerable.
Solar farms in the south of England are good for biodiversity. As the South East becomes more arid the ground will becomes less able to sustain life. One of the (unexpected) bounties of a solar farm is regular dew fall. The ground below each panel is irrigated, lightly. And that will allow many of our more marginal plants to thrive.
Stopping solar farms restricts farm diversification and effectively removes a simple support for biodiversity.
You have to wonder how they got their jobs.
Goodness. I wonder how they managed biodiversity for the thousands of years before solar farms existed.
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
There should be no floodlit football for starters. All played at midday or 1pm. Absolutely no need for wasting leccy, and sets a good example for a thrift winter
We really need to get more anti missile systems to Ukraine as a matter of urgency. Unfortunately, I suspect only the US has the logistical capability to do so.
One possible escalation here is NATO planes being used to take out missiles in Ukranian airspace (as opposed to sitting on its boundaries).
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
Always interesting to read Russian propoganda. However, it doesn't get recieved very well on here.
But in this case it is true. This is a Ukrainian source
"In today's attacks Russia's been deliberately hitting combined heat and power plants across the country, so that Ukrainians have no electricity and no water during the winter. CHPP infrastructure targeted in at least 11 regions - from Lviv to Zaporizhzhia, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro."
Well, that's unequivocally true - it removed the one member state that wasn't wholeheartedly committed to the Project.
That is only potentially true now that KamiKwazi has Ratnered the entire UK economy.
When we weren't Greece we were an asset.
Ratner's gaffe was to accidentally reveal the truth about the quality of his products. If you think that's what Truss and Kwarteng have done for the UK economy, then it's the previous governments (going back well before 2016) that you should blame.
Wow, CCHQ have had a week and more to think about it, and that's the best they've come up with? No, Kwasi didn't reveal the UK economy was as crap as Ratner earrings, he did his best to _make_ it so. Just like Ratner did to his company.
That comment illustrates the problem I'm talking about. You don't see the economy as representing anything tangible. Kwarteng didn't close down any factories or give away any intellectual property.
Comments
Despite saying that she would prefer a UK Labour government, Sturgeon attacked Starmer and his party. Last week, Starmer returned higher popularity ratings in Scotland than the SNP leader, according to a YouGov poll for The Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-support-collapses-in-scotland-ltwqscv03
In Nicola Sturgeon's last three SNP conference speeches combined, she mentioned Labour precisely once. But they got a whole section in this speech...talk of Keir Starmer being "willing to chuck Scotland under Boris Johnson's Brexit bus to get the keys to Downing Street".
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1579488763474235392
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
Nuclear wise Russia hasnt moved any assets into position so would be limited in what it could fire off short term. About 500 sub warheads but at least half of them will be in port and a few dozen each of fixed silo ICBMs and heavy bombers, the rest are the bulk of 1000 or so truck silo type in standby locations amongst 7 regiments that survelillance will spot moving the moment they set out. I would estimate right now Russia might get 300 warheads off, and maybe half work and get through defences which would be extremely grim but the response would be overwhelming wiping out every sub base, nuke storage location, silo, and then anything truck silo sized that moved after would be immediately targetted if that didnt force complete capitulation. Hence Russia won't start anything till it moves ordnance into position for an all out response or attack. Thats when to really panic, thats when we are properly at '62 levels of hold in for dear life.
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
It has to be Sunak. I'm not a particular fan and he won't solve any longterm problems, but he is the most likely to stabilise markets in the short-medium term, and right now that is all that matters. The kitchen is on fire and he is the political fire blanket
If the farmer thinks its worthwhile to put in a solar farm then they're doing so despite the incentives, not because of them.
For the state, I have no idea what will happen, but it's going to take someone with planet sized bollocks to do it.
BTW
they are not a problem .
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-solar-power-a-threat-to-uk-farmland/
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1579499980427231233?s=20&t=_JA-3jpXzeVNBYRAMv8hdw
If you have an individual house then there is little to compare it to, the estate agents tend to just ask you what you think it is worth and then that is the valuation.
Remove Truss. Install Sunak. Lose the next election by 50 instead of 150 with the economy not completely fucked in the process.
we live in flats with a communal car park. we have a designated space but there has been no plan put forward yet for how we might charge an electric car there. adding a charging point to each space sounds expensive. and would it connect to our supply or would the freeholder install their own system and charge us both to have it installed and fleece us as a monopoly provider for the electricity?
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
New Zealand abolishing tariffs and subsidies made its agriculture sector reform to become productive and competitive allowing them not just to produce more food for themselves, but more to export around the globe too as a result.
1. Wins court case, loses referendum, out in October 2023;
2. Loses court case, loses GE “referendum”, out in 2024 or whenever the next GE is.
3. Wins either referendum, remains in power for the foreseeable (no way is she missing the chance to be first Scottish PM).
Labour leads by 29%, largest lead for ANY party that we've recorded.
Westminster Voting Intention (9 Oct.):
Labour 54% (+2)
Conservative 25% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
SNP 3% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 5 Oct.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1579502016027508738?s=20&t=iK2LFxdXAu1GBTD56cbDRQ
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
Britain has 200 or so Trident warheads on 4 Subs, France has about 275 warheads split between sub based eith a 1 in 4 on patrol order like the UK and the air force can access about 75 warheads.
LAB: 54% (+2)
CON: 25% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
via @RedfieldWilton, 09 Oct
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/09/britainpredicts
That's why I'll be forced out of the Treasury.
Sturgeon was very good on "aggressive unionism" in the speech. Attacks on BBC/NHS being the real threat to the UK, not indy.
Do MPs really think we can all wait until Christmas?
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1579503021129465856?s=20&t=_W1JHL_VjZFnMgPeFvttPw
When we weren't Greece we were an asset.
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1579472305612554243?s=20&t=7mWtftTCM8UABKEV8DGiaw
Today, as UK gilt yields surge, there still isn't one. https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1576558503044743169
What a people. I am struck with admiration.
Truss and Kwarteng are a disaster but even without them the future looks bleak anyway
Everyone is going to be poorer
"In today's attacks Russia's been deliberately hitting combined heat and power plants across the country, so that Ukrainians have no electricity and no water during the winter. CHPP infrastructure targeted in at least 11 regions - from Lviv to Zaporizhzhia, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro."
https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1579389439809585153?s=20&t=rTQQqWwVNHlhFn9KWlUTNQ
I think I will die laughing and choking on popcorn if the libertarian, free market obsessive is thrown out by the erm... markets.
Many crops benefit by being grown under solar panels. Irrigation costs are also reduced.
Stopping farmers using solar panels as part of their industrial / commercial mix is unhelpful. If we are talking productivity, and we are, investment in new and innovative production methods is going to be key to driving a 21st century economy.
Ranil Jayawardena is pandering to an outdated fantasy English countryside and failing the country, the environment, and the farmers. We should use what we have efficiently, rewild to support our biodiversity, and invest to reduce our foreign energy dependency. It isn't complicated.
https://www.wired.com/story/growing-crops-under-solar-panels-now-theres-a-bright-idea/
They really shouldn't be in work.
I would do a better job and I'm merely interested in the subject.
1. We have our own currency which we can both print and depreciate allowing businesses in this country to remain competitive.
2. We can therefore avoid default and remain able to pay our vast army of public servants.
3. We have London.
4. We remain the major beneficiary of DFI in Europe, particularly in Fintec.
5. We don't have the ECB threatening to close all our banks if we don't do whatever mad scheme the EU has come up with.
Rather than any impact on actual travel.
https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1579493571472023552?s=20&t=7anSlKKHoVjGmrYoltRyBA
At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (9 Oct.)
Keir Starmer 49% (+5)
Liz Truss 23% (-1)
Changes +/- 5 Oct.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-9-october-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1579504586045333504/photo/1
https://www.uss.co.uk/news-and-views/latest-news/2022/10/10102022_uss-statement-in-response-to-recent-media-coverage-on-ldi-strategies
"Perhaps most importantly of all, falling gilt prices are synonymous with rising interest rates – and rising interest rates reduce the value of our liabilities. So, the scheme is likely to be in an increasingly good position going forward."
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Russian SU-25 ground attack aircraft shot down on the Kherson frontline.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1579508338139992065
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
No, Kwasi didn't reveal the UK economy was as crap as Ratner earrings, he did his best to _make_ it so. Just like Ratner did to his company.
Not so good if you have a large mortgage, of course.
Devomax is yesterday's idea. What unionists need to do is reform the union, not just the role of Scotland within it. There has been no will for this yet, unless we count English regionalism which seriously is not going to enthuse anyone.
Wouldn't surprise me if the mad king is behind this. Sturgeon like Salmond before her is a right slurper. (Political sense intended.)
Also need to consider why Russia has never bothered to go after infrastructure before. Either they were stupid or they didn't have the munitions. Now whilst it is tempting to say they are stupid I think the latter is more likely.
I'm sure we both hope that I'm right and you're wrong.
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
These include pension funds that have a long-term time horizon and can tolerate lower levels of liquidity. As with any crisis, particularly one involving liquidity, there will be winners and losers.
https://cpd071022.pensions-expert.com/
One possible escalation here is NATO planes being used to take out missiles in Ukranian airspace (as opposed to sitting on its boundaries).
"In today's attacks Russia's been deliberately hitting combined heat and power plants across the country, so that Ukrainians have no electricity and no water during the winter. CHPP infrastructure targeted in at least 11 regions - from Lviv to Zaporizhzhia, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro."
https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1579389439809585153?s=20&t=rTQQqWwVNHlhFn9KWlUTNQ