At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Over the weekend @leon was telling us that Putin has been so backed into a corner he would now launch nukes.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
Ukraine will not surrender.
All this just more pressure for them to push forward and finish the destruction of the poorly led and hopeless Ru army.
"Perhaps most importantly of all, falling gilt prices are synonymous with rising interest rates – and rising interest rates reduce the value of our liabilities. So, the scheme is likely to be in an increasingly good position going forward."
I have been saying this repeatedly. Rather than being the end of DB schemes increased gilt rates will be their savour. Many schemes will already have switched from deficit to surplus. If gilts increase again the burdened employers will be looking at contribution holidays.
Not so good if you have a large mortgage, of course.
Yes, although the sudden spike in rates has caused a liquidity problem for some schemes which have (unwisely) made excessive use of derivatives to 'reduce risk' (!). It's a short-term problem only, albeit quite a serious one it seems.
I am slightly bewildered how serious it has been but presumably the 2 week program of the BoE was time limited in the expectation that the risks would have been unwound in that time. It has certainly not helped selling pressure in the market over the last 2 weeks.
Mildly smug that I talked the scheme I am a trustee for from taking up LDI.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Calm down. If Belarus starts to try and invade they are going to find the terrain is a death trap for them. It is miles of roads in forests which make them easy prey for any old Ukrainian with a NLAW. If Russia's best troops at the start of the war couldn't do it then Belarus has no chance with whatever scraps of equipment they can get together.
Also need to consider why Russia has never bothered to go after infrastructure before. Either they were stupid or they didn't have the munitions. Now whilst it is tempting to say they are stupid I think the latter is more likely.
I'm sure we both hope that I'm right and you're wrong.
I's not stupidity nor is it munitions
Hitherto, Putin wanted to seize an intact Ukraine (or large parts of it). And of course he believed most Ukrainians love him and Russia. The last few months have slowly and painfully disabused him of that notion. And he is losing an existential war
So now it's: fuck Ukraine. 1. He wants revenge and 2. He needs to win and 3. Ukraine will pay in blood and famine
I said, after the Kerch Attack, that in the coming days a lot of Ukrainians will die. So it is
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Calm down. If Belarus starts to try and invade they are going to find the terrain is a death trap for them. It is miles of roads in forests which make them easy prey for any old Ukrainian with a NLAW. If Russia's best troops at the start of the war couldn't do it then Belarus has no chance with whatever scraps of equipment they can get together.
Also need to consider why Russia has never bothered to go after infrastructure before. Either they were stupid or they didn't have the munitions. Now whilst it is tempting to say they are stupid I think the latter is more likely.
I'm sure we both hope that I'm right and you're wrong.
Presumably initially they left the infrastructure because they figured they would be using it when they had their feet up on Zelenski's desk in the capital after Putin's Three Day War.
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
There should be no floodlit football for starters. All played at midday or 1pm. Absolutely no need for wasting leccy, and sets a good example for a thrift winter
Completely agree. There’s plenty of things we can do to cut consumption. Some of it might be a little unpalatable (a big one is street lights, a number of which could most certainly go off in the early hours though obviously there is a safety element there which needs to be thought through) but at a push can be done. We got through lockdown, I don’t think most people will begrudge a few sacrifices/disruptions this winter for the greater good.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Over the weekend @leon was telling us that Putin has been so backed into a corner he would now launch nukes.
Now we are told Putin is close to winning.
Mate, wars are chaotic and unpredictable
Putin was losing - and badly. But he has POSSIBLY found a way to turn it around. All out attack on Ukrainian infrastructure
Whether this works depends on Ukrainian ability to repair shit, and his supply of missiles and drones. If he runs out soon, he won't win, but if he gets enough...
I wonder if he is asking China. Give me missiles, then I can win the war, no need for nukes. They might say Yes
Ukrainian government spokespeople have been pointing out for a long time that people shouldn't underestimate their ability to escalate within Russia in response to anything Putin throws at them.
With their chaotic mobilisation and increasingly open intra-elite jockeying for power, Russia still looks like the loser at the moment.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Disclaimer, I am not a structural engineer or a demolitions expert. The bit of the road that took the bulk of the explosion is in the sea. No one has any idea of what it looks like. Extrapolating explosion direction base do nthat seems like a fools errand.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Over the weekend @leon was telling us that Putin has been so backed into a corner he would now launch nukes.
Now we are told Putin is close to winning.
Mate, wars are chaotic and unpredictable
Putin was losing - and badly. But he has POSSIBLY found a way to turn it around. All out attack on Ukrainian infrastructure
Whether this works depends on Ukrainian ability to repair shit, and his supply of missiles and drones. If he runs out soon, he won't win, but if he gets enough...
I wonder if he is asking China. Give me missiles, then I can win the war, no need for nukes. They might say Yes
And the Americans may well supply Patriots to protect essential infrastructure. Russia are still losing.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
This is deeply deeply shit. Shittiness cubed. The whole world is spiralling into nightmare. And that is not hyperbolic
Of course it's hyperbolical, but that is beside the point. What's more to the point is that the continued chaos in Ukraine is going to have an impact on food security, the Government is trying, sensibly, to do something to ensure that fields are used to grow food, so we can increase our own supply, and PB's verdict is 'loopy' - exactly the same verdict that would have been given if Bojo's Government had made significant efforts to increase supply of domestic hydrocarbons before the energy crisis hit.
Truck is totally plausible, but to convince me you need a story that tells me whether the driver is a suicide bomber or not, what the explosive load was, how it was triggered and how it was disguised to pass the visual inspection.
My theory, and it's just a theory, is that the driver was a Russian soldier who had no idea he was carrying an enormous bomb. Basically, a legitimate cargo was swapped for a bomb with a GPS trigger.
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
There should be no floodlit football for starters. All played at midday or 1pm. Absolutely no need for wasting leccy, and sets a good example for a thrift winter
Completely agree. There’s plenty of things we can do to cut consumption. Some of it might be a little unpalatable (a big one is street lights, a number of which could most certainly go off in the early hours though obviously there is a safety element there which needs to be thought through) but at a push can be done. We got through lockdown, I don’t think most people will begrudge a few sacrifices/disruptions this winter for the greater good.
As long as its presented right, yes. No whinging from the privileged about inconvenience etc
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Over the weekend @leon was telling us that Putin has been so backed into a corner he would now launch nukes.
Now we are told Putin is close to winning.
Mate, wars are chaotic and unpredictable
Putin was losing - and badly. But he has POSSIBLY found a way to turn it around. All out attack on Ukrainian infrastructure
Whether this works depends on Ukrainian ability to repair shit, and his supply of missiles and drones. If he runs out soon, he won't win, but if he gets enough...
I wonder if he is asking China. Give me missiles, then I can win the war, no need for nukes. They might say Yes
And the Americans may well supply Patriots to protect essential infrastructure. Russia are still losing.
Ukraine should get the capability to target the Black Sea submarines that are launching a large percentage of the missiles.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
Agreed, it is clever. However, being independent means a country makes its own foreign policy and forms partnerships with whoever it likes so long as they're willing. A partnership with a fixed number of other countries forming a group that has a shared foreign policy is not independence. The Isle of Man is sovereign but not independent. (This is why unlike Gibraltar it's not on the UN's list of colonies, the UN being committed on paper to decolonisation.)
Devomax is yesterday's idea. What unionists need to do is reform the union, not just the role of Scotland within it. There has been no will for this yet, unless we count English regionalism which seriously is not going to enthuse anyone.
Wouldn't surprise me if the mad king is behind this. Sturgeon like Salmond before her is a right slurper. (Political sense intended.)
I'm a federalist so I agree that the whole union needs to be fixed. Devo Max works for all 4 nations - a greater list of policy areas devolved to their respective parliaments which they can do what they like with.
Remember that one of the big drivers for the Brexit vote in England was the lack of democratic accountability - people being sick of taken for granted by the politicians. An English parliament with Devo Max and more decisions made locally is a fix for that issue.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
They sent a wave of missiles at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv after their absolute embaressment of a rout in Izyum. It knocked out the CHP plant there. Everyone (including me) got gloomy. The Ukrainians had it back working again a day later.
Until you know the long term damage there's no point in hitting the doom juice
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
There should be no floodlit football for starters. All played at midday or 1pm. Absolutely no need for wasting leccy, and sets a good example for a thrift winter
Why on earth would we do that? It seems deeply counterproductive to cancel an activity that is watched by millions and costs a few hours of floodlighting.
We need to increase supply of domestic power vastly, quicker than has been hitherto believed possible. That's how we can 'help'.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
It's jarring to see informal language like "goes bust" on a government site.
TBF I believe it is funded by a levy on other pension schemes, isn't it? Even if it is robbing Peter to payt for the sins of Paul.
Yes, I was referring to the specific BoE bailout scheme that has been in place to prevent major DB schemes from going bankrupt because they can't post margin.
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
Agreed, it is clever. However, being independent means a country makes its own foreign policy and forms partnerships with whoever it likes so long as they're willing. A partnership with a fixed number of other countries forming a group that has a shared foreign policy is not independence. The Isle of Man is sovereign but not independent. (This is why unlike Gibraltar it's not on the UN's list of colonies, the UN being committed on paper to decolonisation.)
Devomax is yesterday's idea. What unionists need to do is reform the union, not just the role of Scotland within it. There has been no will for this yet, unless we count English regionalism which seriously is not going to enthuse anyone.
Wouldn't surprise me if the mad king is behind this. Sturgeon like Salmond before her is a right slurper. (Political sense intended.)
I'm a federalist so I agree that the whole union needs to be fixed. Devo Max works for all 4 nations - a greater list of policy areas devolved to their respective parliaments which they can do what they like with.
Remember that one of the big drivers for the Brexit vote in England was the lack of democratic accountability - people being sick of taken for granted by the politicians. An English parliament with Devo Max and more decisions made locally is a fix for that issue.
I think the boat has been missed on federalisation. Ironically independence is now too close for it to be considered by unionists, so only if independence support drastically receded would they feel it safe to open the can of worms again.
Truck is totally plausible, but to convince me you need a story that tells me whether the driver is a suicide bomber or not, what the explosive load was, how it was triggered and how it was disguised to pass the visual inspection.
My theory, and it's just a theory, is that the driver was a Russian soldier who had no idea he was carrying an enormous bomb. Basically, a legitimate cargo was swapped for a bomb with a GPS trigger.
If the Russians are being truthful we have video of the Lorry being inspected prior to going on the bridge. The driver would be rather portly for a soldier.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
Do have to grimace at the latest development. Apparently the solution to Ukraine being run by nazis who oppress the people is to smash the place back into the stone age and hope enough of them die to force a surrender. If they are dead, they are no longer nazi, job done.
What are we proposing that NATO do about it though? They'll run out of missiles, so we could help Ukraine fix the smashed infrastructure on the basis that the Russian's can't keep smashing it forever.
Ukraine stopping electricity exports to the EU from tomorrow due to the rocket attacks. The crisis just deepens
We need to be doing what we can to help Europe.
We need a serious conversation about limiting energy supply this winter. Unfortunately, our Prime Minister would rather we didn’t have that conversation, so we will lurch into a crisis of our own making. Again.
There should be no floodlit football for starters. All played at midday or 1pm. Absolutely no need for wasting leccy, and sets a good example for a thrift winter
Why on earth would we do that? It seems deeply counterproductive to cancel an activity that is watched by millions and costs a few hours of floodlighting.
We need to increase supply of domestic power vastly, quicker than has been hitherto believed possible. That's how we can 'help'.
Playing at midday/1pm is not cancelling, its playing at midday or 1pm. Before greed took over everything was played at 3pm on Saturday every week. You are correct however about increasing supply, fast.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Mykola Bielieskov @MBielieskov Nobody has won war through conventional mid-range missiles’ terror. RU will only prove this rule.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
Many crops benefit by being grown under solar panels. Irrigation costs are also reduced. [snip]
In Arizona or Australia, yes, where the problem is too much sun. Probably not in the UK.
I hope you are right.
I've noticed a drought and hot weather this year in southern England. The weather isn't getting any milder. Our countryside is one of the most nature depleted landscapes in the world. We can't assume it will have the required resilience to continue being productive.
It's a new world we are entering. Making law that stops us adapting is unlikely to help.
Truck is totally plausible, but to convince me you need a story that tells me whether the driver is a suicide bomber or not, what the explosive load was, how it was triggered and how it was disguised to pass the visual inspection.
My theory, and it's just a theory, is that the driver was a Russian soldier who had no idea he was carrying an enormous bomb. Basically, a legitimate cargo was swapped for a bomb with a GPS trigger.
If the Russians are being truthful we have video of the Lorry being inspected prior to going on the bridge. The driver would be rather portly for a soldier.
@rcs1000's theory is good. And it doesn't have to be a soldier
Meanwhile the "truck inspector" could be anyone. Born in Kharkiv. Or a guy with a girlfriend in Mariupol
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
If we are about to go into a recession/depression/nuclear war, Indyref2 doesn't look quite as sensible as before.
I think it's quite a smart pivot. Also, cannot be seen to be too aggro with the SC decision round the corner; must not be seen to put overt political pressure on them.
There was a passage in her speech which was very clever:
"Independence is actually the best way to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded – a voluntary partnership of nations.
Right now, an aggressive unionism is undermining that partnership.
Westminster’s denial of Scottish democracy. Full frontal attacks on devolution. A basic lack of respect. It is these which are causing tension and fraying the bonds between us.
Scottish independence can reset and renew the whole notion of nations working together for the common good.
England, Scotland, Wales, the island of Ireland. We will always be the closest of friends. We will always be family. But we can achieve a better relationship – a true partnership of equals – when we win Scotland’s independence."
She is recognising that the UK in its current form is fundamentally broken and needs reform. She is proposing Independence as Scotland's part in that reform of a group of nations which includes Ireland and presumably also the Isle of Man and the Channel Bailiwicks if we are doing this properly.
The obvious route for a Labour Party seeking as many seats north of the wall as possible is DevoMax. The reason why "The Vow" was death for Scottish Labour isn't because it denied independence, its because the vow was immediately trashed by Cameron and quietly forgotten by Labour. Preserving and enhancing devolution is independence without all the aggro and risk of actually going all the way.
Agreed, it is clever. However, being independent means a country makes its own foreign policy and forms partnerships with whoever it likes so long as they're willing. A partnership with a fixed number of other countries forming a group that has a shared foreign policy is not independence. The Isle of Man is sovereign but not independent. (This is why unlike Gibraltar it's not on the UN's list of colonies, the UN being committed on paper to decolonisation.)
Devomax is yesterday's idea. What unionists need to do is reform the union, not just the role of Scotland within it. There has been no will for this yet, unless we count English regionalism which seriously is not going to enthuse anyone.
Wouldn't surprise me if the mad king is behind this. Sturgeon like Salmond before her is a right slurper. (Political sense intended.)
I'm a federalist so I agree that the whole union needs to be fixed. Devo Max works for all 4 nations - a greater list of policy areas devolved to their respective parliaments which they can do what they like with.
Remember that one of the big drivers for the Brexit vote in England was the lack of democratic accountability - people being sick of taken for granted by the politicians. An English parliament with Devo Max and more decisions made locally is a fix for that issue.
I think the boat has been missed on federalisation. Ironically independence is now too close for it to be considered by unionists, so only if independence support drastically receded would they feel it safe to open the can of worms again.
It was devomax for Quebec effectively which narrowly won Federalists in Canada the second Quebec independence referendum in 1995
Interesting analysis here of Russias attacks on Ukraines energy system. The aim is clearly to knock out power to Ukraine ahead of the dark winter months
Asking the question did the bridge explosion happen in the wrong place, in other words were they planning to blow the main road and rail arch over the Kerch strait and detonated too soon?
That would explain a few things, but also would lend credence to the idea this must have been a lorry bomb.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Ukraine have had a few good weeks but setbacks are inevitable.
Over the weekend @leon was telling us that Putin has been so backed into a corner he would now launch nukes.
Now we are told Putin is close to winning.
The only thing consistent with Leon is he can't admit that Putin can/will lose.
He's so tied himself in knots with the anti-woke/pro-Trump/pro-Putin crowd of extremists online that this is psychologically incomprehensible to him.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
Well, that's unequivocally true - it removed the one member state that wasn't wholeheartedly committed to the Project.
That is only potentially true now that KamiKwazi has Ratnered the entire UK economy.
When we weren't Greece we were an asset.
Ratner's gaffe was to accidentally reveal the truth about the quality of his products. If you think that's what Truss and Kwarteng have done for the UK economy, then it's the previous governments (going back well before 2016) that you should blame.
Wow, CCHQ have had a week and more to think about it, and that's the best they've come up with? No, Kwasi didn't reveal the UK economy was as crap as Ratner earrings, he did his best to _make_ it so. Just like Ratner did to his company.
That comment illustrates the problem I'm talking about. You don't see the economy as representing anything tangible. Kwarteng didn't close down any factories or give away any intellectual property.
This doesn't absolve Truss and Kwarteng. In fact a Big Picture analysis - which I sense you're attempting - damns them all the more. The end of the era of cheap money, low inflation and QE is bound to be painful and the best hope is to manage it in as organized a fashion as possible, taking the pain over time and loading most of it onto those most able to bear it. They are busting a gut to bring about the dead opposite. Cause chaos. Maximize the pain NOW. Shelter the rich and fuck the poor. If you ran a competition to find the most inept and inapt approach for the times we're in this one would win hands down.
That guy John von Neumann, who came up with the architecture of the modern computer as well as the kookhouse idea that machines will take over the universe, has a lot to answer for. After he helped the US government kill as many people as possible when striking Japan with nuclear weapons (by advising on optimal detonation height), he also penned the theory of "Mutually Assured Destruction". Once the Cold War started he was an advocate of heating it up, being a Kenny Everett character for real when one supposes that Everett himself was only making a sick joke. Was guilt perhaps a factor in von Neumann's finding religion during his last illness?
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
In Scotland, the new housing estates look shit because developers:
- flatten fields so there is no natural undulation - plant zero trees - build houses 2 inches apart (just do colonies!) - make room for two cars in front of every house (do a communal car park in middle) - no cycle/pedestrian provision to town centre so school run has to be done by car
It’s astonishing in a way that such developments are still the preferred model in 2022.
We know so much more about what makes for liveable, sustainable, and even productive development than we did in, say, 1982.
I think there is likely to be more pressure for parking in front of the house when they all have to be electric and you want to charge them from your own supply.
we live in flats with a communal car park. we have a designated space but there has been no plan put forward yet for how we might charge an electric car there. adding a charging point to each space sounds expensive. and would it connect to our supply or would the freeholder install their own system and charge us both to have it installed and fleece us as a monopoly provider for the electricity?
Interestingly, I've been talking to someone at Salford University researching things like this today. They have a massuve shed in which builders can build 'test' houses and they can synthesise all sorts of climactic conditions. This is builders like Barratt and Bellway - mass market builders. Anyway, current research suggests that mass market new build housing in which energy bills amount to about £300 a year are emminently possible - which is starting to get to the sort of economics where it becomes potentially sensible to tear down and rebuild existing housing stock. Retrofit is good, but not that good. He did, of course, say that this was just from an economics and environment point of viee, and that many other considerations - not least aesthetics - should come into account. He also said - and I was totally unaware pf this - that legislation comes into force next year that rented accomodation needs to be category C energy efficient. There is no way to achieve this economically even if the workforce were available to do it - are landlords of bog standard houses going to pay out £30k just to stay in the rental market, or will they offload? Which implies something of a forthcoming lack of rental properties and glut of housing for sale. Also, autonomous cars - they're just around the corner. 5 years or so. But they'll never work in Cornwall or on any 'difficult' roads. Not for another decade, anyway.
'Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used. This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath’s tantrum.'
Ukrainian government spokespeople have been pointing out for a long time that people shouldn't underestimate their ability to escalate within Russia in response to anything Putin throws at them.
With their chaotic mobilisation and increasingly open intra-elite jockeying for power, Russia still looks like the loser at the moment.
Yes: they have a very limited supply of long range missiles.
A very anti-free market idea from this purportedly libertarian government.
As it happens, I don't see much logic in investing in solar here rather than wind or tidal power - it seems the equivalent of investing in tidal power in Mongolia, we should play to our geographical strengths, and massive solar investment in Germany has done sod all for their energy or indeed their carbon footprint - but I could well be wrong, and if someone can make it work in an economically viable way, they should go for it.
Ukrainian government spokespeople have been pointing out for a long time that people shouldn't underestimate their ability to escalate within Russia in response to anything Putin throws at them.
With their chaotic mobilisation and increasingly open intra-elite jockeying for power, Russia still looks like the loser at the moment.
Yes: they have a very limited supply of long range missiles.
Which are getting even more limited every time a temper tantrum takes out a playground or gets intercepted in the air.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
it's really not fantastical. Putin can win - unfortunately - if he has the means and will to obliterate half of Ukraine and starve their cities of all power, water, etc
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki 1/ Finland's national broadcaster Yle has published an interesting interview with an explosive ordnance disposal expert, retired Major Myka Tyry of the Finnish Defence Forces, on the Crimea Bridge blast. He makes a number of points I've not seen elsewhere.
That sounded like a missile. Very odd. Hard to believe a single missile has that kind of firepower. Unless it hit charges already in place?
It's obviously fake
I'd say so.
Wrong time of day for a start. The explosion was at 06:07 local time, sunrise wasn't until 06:41. It should be a lot darker, cars would have their lights on.
Truck is totally plausible, but to convince me you need a story that tells me whether the driver is a suicide bomber or not, what the explosive load was, how it was triggered and how it was disguised to pass the visual inspection.
My theory, and it's just a theory, is that the driver was a Russian soldier who had no idea he was carrying an enormous bomb. Basically, a legitimate cargo was swapped for a bomb with a GPS trigger.
If the Russians are being truthful we have video of the Lorry being inspected prior to going on the bridge. The driver would be rather portly for a soldier.
@rcs1000's theory is good. And it doesn't have to be a soldier
Meanwhile the "truck inspector" could be anyone. Born in Kharkiv. Or a guy with a girlfriend in Mariupol
Firing missiles at people and things is Russia in its groove. I didn't want to say this last week when the news was good for Ukraine, or I would have been accused of 'wanting to help Putin', but it seems crudely sensible for Russia to resort to a missile driven campaign, and if you have got to fire them at something, installations like power seem likely targets. I have also been expecting bigger explosions - there are a lot of higher yield bombs before you get to nukes.
To try and get a crumb of comfort from this, perhaps the fact that Putin has managed to still be a credible nuisance makes a negotiated settlement more likely. If he'd just continued getting drubbed, there would have been zero incentive for Ukraine to offer anything that would have been acceptable to Putin's home audience.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
it's really not fantastical. Putin can win - unfortunately - if he has the means and will to obliterate half of Ukraine and starve their cities of all power, water, etc
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
Goodness me, you'd have been awful in the Blitz wouldn't you?
Your metaphor fails as hammers are very targeted instruments that are used with precision normally to strike just where required.
Russia is the one getting smashed in the face with a hammer, they're the ones having the ammunition dumps destroyed, military pegged back and so on.
All Putin is doing is the equivalent of throwing stones at windows from across the road. He's lashing out indiscriminately, but he's not targeting with any great success the supplies, infrastructure, or equipment necessary to make a difference in the war.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
it's really not fantastical. Putin can win - unfortunately - if he has the means and will to obliterate half of Ukraine and starve their cities of all power, water, etc
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
But he doesn't have a conventional hammer. That's the point. I'm also fairly sceptical on Russia's ability to launch a nuclear strike as well as extremely sceptical about the willingness within the military chain of command to actually launch a nuke.
Additionally, if conventional missile strikes look like they may turn the tide in the war then the US will step in and provide the best anti-missile tech and suddenly that option disappears too. I'm also not sure that Russia has enough working conventional missiles to do it and they are struggling to source parts to repair the ones that don't work and build new ones, specifically some of their missiles rely on Ukrainian made parts for construction and maintenance.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Disclaimer, I am not a structural engineer or a demolitions expert. The bit of the road that took the bulk of the explosion is in the sea. No one has any idea of what it looks like. Extrapolating explosion direction base do nthat seems like a fools errand.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer nor a Feersum one but I do have some appropriate letters.
Bridges are designed to take loads from above. As we've seen from the multiple hits on the bridge in Kherson (albeit with less explosive) it is very hard to take such a structure down from the top of the deck.
To do it you would essentially have to blast the whole roadway in half, including the steel reinforcement.
From below (or to one side), you only have to destroy the supports on which each section rests or blow the bridge off them entirely. Most bridge decks are not fixed down as they have to move on bearings to accommodate thermal expansion. Sufficient force from below would lift them off.
In addition, water is essentially incompressible in an explosion so nearly 100% of the force will go upwards if you blow something on the surface. It would be a much more efficient use of explosive.
I think it is very very unlikely to have been a truck bomb.
That guy John von Neumann, who came up with the architecture of the modern computer as well as the kookhouse idea that machines will take over the universe, has a lot to answer for. After he helped the US government kill as many people as possible when striking Japan with nuclear weapons (by advising on optimal detonation height), he also penned the theory of "Mutually Assured Destruction". Once the Cold War started he was an advocate of heating it up, being a Kenny Everett character for real when one supposes that Everett himself was only making a sick joke. Was guilt perhaps a factor in von Neumann's finding religion during his last illness?
I've never bought the theory that his decision resulted from analysing a payoff matrix. This argument runs that if he assessed the existence of God as extremely unlikely, but not as having zero probability, then infinity times a tiny amount is infinity, whereas almost 1 times the zero payoff in the case of God's non-existence is zero, and since infinity is greater than zero it would be reasonable to sign up if he was working by expected payoff. This is quite funny, but funny is not the same as true or even credible. He was a clever guy and only a stupid person would think like that.
@MaxPB are these private DB pensions? If so, why is the Government essentially guaranteeing them?
There is a government backed insurance scheme, to which all DB pensions pay.
In return for this protection, the funds are supposed to have uniform levels of actuarial accounting, and to keep their funds well funded.
What happens when the insurance scheme goes bankrupt or reinsurers take fright? Genuine question btw, insurance is still there be dragons to me.
The insurance scheme is owned and run by the government.
What is supposed to happen in the event of a pension fund being actuarially insolvent is this:
(1) The parent tops it up (2) If the parent is unable to top it up and goes bust Then (3) The insurance scheme backs it to 90%
The government is contractually on the hook.
So if the insurance scheme is unable to meet the cost then the government steps in? Lovely, another route for working age people to fund rich old people.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
Terror bombing did not defeat the Japanese, the Japanese were defeated by a combination of losing the war via conventional means and being outgunned with weaponry they couldn't defend or fight back against.
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Disclaimer, I am not a structural engineer or a demolitions expert. The bit of the road that took the bulk of the explosion is in the sea. No one has any idea of what it looks like. Extrapolating explosion direction base do nthat seems like a fools errand.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer nor a Feersum one but I do have some appropriate letters.
Bridges are designed to take loads from above. As we've seen from the multiple hits on the bridge in Kherson (albeit with less explosive) it is very hard to take such a structure down from the top of the deck.
To do it you would essentially have to blast the whole roadway in half, including the steel reinforcement.
From below (or to one side), you only have to destroy the supports on which each section rests or blow the bridge off them entirely. Most bridge decks are not fixed down as they have to move on bearings to accommodate thermal expansion. Sufficient force from below would lift them off.
In addition, water is essentially incompressible in an explosion so nearly 100% of the force will go upwards if you blow something on the surface. It would be a much more efficient use of explosive.
I think it is very very unlikely to have been a truck bomb.
I haven't seen anyone making this argument explain why only one of the road tracks was destroyed while the other was relatively unscathed. This is far easier to explain if it was a truck bomb on the surface.
That sounded like a missile. Very odd. Hard to believe a single missile has that kind of firepower. Unless it hit charges already in place?
It's obviously fake
I'd say so.
Wrong time of day for a start. The explosion was at 06:07 local time, sunrise wasn't until 06:41. It should be a lot darker, cars would have their lights on.
It's pretty light half an hour before sunrise
That's not a dashcam It's a handheld camera (phone presumably) which is dropped at the time of the explosion. Why would this happen?
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
"The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to the Russian authorities. A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a TRUCK being driven across the bridge."
Or the Ukrainians want you to believe it was a truck.
I strongly suspect it was a truck, and that's why we got this early admission: truck
But then the Ukes realised they could do some psy-ops on the Russians, and cause them even more anxiety, by hinting at special forces etc. So they put out Fake News to that effect
I suspect it is a truck too.
But that's just a suspicion. A strong suspicion, but we probably won't know the truth until after the war.
Truck is the simplest explanation, and also the easiest to do - especially to get the timing just right as a fuel train came down the tracks
People don't like it because it makes "Ukes = terrorists", but that's not really the case. The Russians were sending tanks and troops over that bridge, it is a legit target
But yeah, we likely won't know until after the war, if ever
I don't like it because it just doesn't seem to fit the evidence. A truck explosion would have blasted a crater in the road surface and there'd have been bits of concrete and tarmac scattered all over the remaining intact parts of the bridge. But no, they look almost completely clean. The only way this could happen is if the explosion was underneath the bridge.
Disclaimer, I am not a structural engineer or a demolitions expert. The bit of the road that took the bulk of the explosion is in the sea. No one has any idea of what it looks like. Extrapolating explosion direction base do nthat seems like a fools errand.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer nor a Feersum one but I do have some appropriate letters.
Bridges are designed to take loads from above. As we've seen from the multiple hits on the bridge in Kherson (albeit with less explosive) it is very hard to take such a structure down from the top of the deck.
To do it you would essentially have to blast the whole roadway in half, including the steel reinforcement.
From below (or to one side), you only have to destroy the supports on which each section rests or blow the bridge off them entirely. Most bridge decks are not fixed down as they have to move on bearings to accommodate thermal expansion. Sufficient force from below would lift them off.
In addition, water is essentially incompressible in an explosion so nearly 100% of the force will go upwards if you blow something on the surface. It would be a much more efficient use of explosive.
I think it is very very unlikely to have been a truck bomb.
I haven't seen anyone making this argument explain why only one of the road tracks was destroyed while the other was relatively unscathed. This is far easier to explain if it was a truck bomb on the surface.
From the videos I've seen, the blast seems to have come from slightly to one side of the carriageway that fell, or possibly right underneath it.
The other carriageway must be at least 4x further away. That's 64x less force...
Having said that, it does look to have shifted slightly. I wouldn't have recommended crossing it, but this is Russia we are talking about...
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
'Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used. This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath’s tantrum.'
Just an alternative viewpoint.
The Estonian government has just designated Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. I expect several more countries may do so, and further sanctions will follow that.
That guy John von Neumann, who came up with the architecture of the modern computer as well as the kookhouse idea that machines will take over the universe, has a lot to answer for. After he helped the US government kill as many people as possible when striking Japan with nuclear weapons (by advising on optimal detonation height), he also penned the theory of "Mutually Assured Destruction". Once the Cold War started he was an advocate of heating it up, being a Kenny Everett character for real when one supposes that Everett himself was only making a sick joke. Was guilt perhaps a factor in von Neumann's finding religion during his last illness?
I've never bought the theory that his decision resulted from analysing a payoff matrix. This argument runs that if he assessed the existence of God as extremely unlikely, but not as having zero probability, then infinity times a tiny amount is infinity, whereas almost 1 times the zero payoff in the case of God's non-existence is zero, and since infinity is greater than zero it would be reasonable to sign up if he was working by expected payoff. This is quite funny, but funny is not the same as true or even credible. He was a clever guy and only a stupid person would think like that.
That is just a restatement of Pascal's wager, and Pascal was almost as clever as you are.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
The thing about medieval sieges is they could last a bloody long time though. Granted, with occupied cities of the size in Ukraine that would be much more difficult in a broken infrastructure situation, but it also means he cannot take and occupy those places if he has permanently damaged them.
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I'm not sure he cares about occupation any more. Or even territory
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
This is fantastical. The moment for "whatever it takes" has passed us by ages ago wrt to Putin getting a win. An orderly withdrawal and some token "see we taught them a lesson, stupid Nazis" with a list of areas they "de-nazified" over the last 6 months is the route out for everyone. That or a palace coup. Russia have got no route to victory, even dropping a nuke is a loss for them and it loses them the existing support they have from China.
it's really not fantastical. Putin can win - unfortunately - if he has the means and will to obliterate half of Ukraine and starve their cities of all power, water, etc
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
And yet. Tens of thousands of civilians survived Stalingrad.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
Of course they work. Russia would have been colonised about 60 years ago otherwise.
The terrifying thing is that so much effort is being made by western propagandists on certain websites to spread the idea that they don't work, or that they might work if launched but the commanders would never manage to launch them successfully, or if they did launch some it would only be a few that managed to get through to targets, so few as to make WW3 an utterly good idea if Russia doesn't act as the USA wants it to.
One inconvenient thing for those who are spreading such evil war propaganda is that the whole of US nuclear weapons policy, as well as the existence of NATO etc., has been predicated on the idea that Soviet and now Russian strategic nukes actually do work. So if only all the western strategists between say 1950 and 2020 could have seen ahead a few decades and got their wisdom from Twitter...
Remember alsi the power stayed on in uk cities during the blitz....im not sure the uk populace would have been so resilient if deprived of power and energy for 6 months
Well you could always come up with a Dynamo suggestion to keep yourself occupied if you had no power. Maybe say Hello Clouds.
Current Air Quality Index for Selected World Cities - from worst to best, 1 to 93 (0-49 = Good, 50-99 = Moderate, 100-149 = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, 150-199 = Unhealthy, 200-299 = Very Unhealthy, 300+ = Hazardous)
01 - Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia = 160 02 - Lahore, Pakistan = 159 03 - Seattle, WA, USA = 152 04 - Jakarta, Indonesia = 149 05 - Portland, OR, USA = 141 10 - Karachi, Pakistan = 97 23 - Vancouver, BC, Canada = 74 29 - Dubai, UAE = 68 30 - Los Angeles, CA, USA = 66 34 - Paris, France = 61 40 - New York City, NY, USA = 55 45 - Tokyo, Japan = 53 56 - Vienna, Austria = 45 63 - Mexico City, Mexico = 29 72 - Melbourne, Australia = 25 80 - San Francisco, CA, USA = 18 89 - Kyiv, Ukraine = 12 90 - London, UK = 12
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
Terror bombing did not defeat the Japanese, the Japanese were defeated by a combination of losing the war via conventional means and being outgunned with weaponry they couldn't defend or fight back against.
None of that applies today.
This is pretty sui generis. We have never seen a powerful modern nation attempt to subdue a neighbouring nation with an all out assault on infrastructure, and a total disregard for human life. I don't think it's been tried, not least because it is Satanic
But I get the sense that is what the Russians will now try and do. And it comes back to their supply of suitable weapons
There's no way back for Truss and the markets neither like her or trust her. They'll always be wondering what the next new bullshit is lying round the corner.
They want her gone, or to be paid a massive premium on the pound and UK debt.
At least the rest of the world is calm, as Britain sails over the edge of the falls
"Deadly airstrikes are just 'first episode' of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev
"Russia's retaliatory mass strikes across Ukraine were only the "first episode" of Moscow's planned response to the attack on the bridge to Crimea, said former President Dmitry Medvedev, claiming it had become necessary for Russia to 'dismantle' Ukraine."
"Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian president have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv"
You know it’s all going to pot when you have to rely on Lukaschenko.
I'm now thinking Putin's missiles might work
He's not doing it as a gesture, he is going after critical Ukrainian infrastructure. It is reported tonight that Kharkiv has no water supply, and not much power
How long can cities endure that? Not long. Ukraine will surrender
Therefore the crucial test is Does he have more drones and missiles to bring this off? Possibly
Add in a new assault from the north, with Belarus, attempting to take Kyiv and I can see Putin actually winning this, over the winter. I do not say this happily
Hang on, haven’t you been saying that Putin was cornered and was going to annihilate us all with nuclear fire on his way down??
Putin has potentially changed the game. I thought only WMD could do that, but this might work
A brutal assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving entire cities without water, food, power, heating, through a Ukrainian winter? It is terrifying and evil but it could work IF Putin has enough missiles/drones to finish the job
My Peace Plan looks an awful lot more enticing right now
I don't really see how - if the contention is he has taken out critical infrastructure, he's already played that card. He cannot take it back. So he cannot say 'Let's ceasefire or I take out your critical infrastructure'.
Extrapolate
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
Bomber Harris, is that you?
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Intense bombing didn't defeat the Viet Cong either, tho they were prepared to live in muddy pits and eat tarantulas to win the war. And there was no risk of dying from intense cold if they had no power
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
Terror bombing did not defeat the Japanese, the Japanese were defeated by a combination of losing the war via conventional means and being outgunned with weaponry they couldn't defend or fight back against.
None of that applies today.
This is pretty sui generis. We have never seen a powerful modern nation attempt to subdue a neighbouring nation with an all out assault on infrastructure, and a total disregard for human life. I don't think it's been tried, not least because it is Satanic
But I get the sense that is what the Russians will now try and do. And it comes back to their supply of suitable weapons
Not neighbouring but I would consider the US sending 2.2 million conscripts and using napalm to kill its opponents a total disregard for human life. They still lost.
We're not seeing a powerful modern nation attempt that today either.
We're seeing an impotent failed state lashing out with a few missiles from a limited stockpile.
It's the single issue that will define the next 10 years of state finance in this country. How does the government keep the plates spinning and keep the markets on side? I'm honestly not sure. I understand you have skin in the game as a DB pension holder but something will have to be cut, the early numbers look absolutely appalling for the private sector, loads of big names seem completely and utterly uninvestible.
I think state sector liabilities are even larger, especially after adding in local government liabilities.
If you don't believe me then take a look at long dated gilts, there are only sellers. Or UK corporate bonds, another sea of red.
Currently my best estimate is that somewhere around 3% of GDP per year is being spent by the state and corporations to meet DB commitments.
I'm beginning to think that the low CT and low investment is correlation rather than causation, companies have been spending money that would be otherwise be spent on capital on meeting DB pension commitments.
The UK economy is on fire and DB pensions are fuelling that fire. Whatever tax rises you throw at it to put it out won't make a difference, the solution will inevitably be some brave government deciding to turn off the fuel taps.
I'm not sure the international comparisons really support your analysis, in the sense that it's not necessarily a UK-specific problem. Other countries, especially France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany, have IIRC larger state pension liabilities, and some US states are even worse. It's hard to get comparative figures, but looking at the generosity of company-sponsored pensions in European countries, I expect that the same is true of their private sector as well.
The worst affected are US municipalities, which are often struggling with falling tax bases and essentially unfunded pension liabilities.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
I haven't been posting as much recently as I have a deep sense of foreboding for the UK and European economies that are going to take many years to resolve, as everyone suffers and has to reduce their expectations
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
Comments
Now we are told Putin is close to winning.
This winter though, there be dragons
https://www.science.org/content/article/how-do-wombats-poop-cubes-scientists-get-bottom-mystery
The one I'm looking forward to is Kantar. They had the gap down to just 4 pts last time. It was a while ago though.
Maybe they are having difficulty recruiting.
All this just more pressure for them to push forward and finish the destruction of the poorly led and hopeless Ru army.
Mildly smug that I talked the scheme I am a trustee for from taking up LDI.
Hitherto, Putin wanted to seize an intact Ukraine (or large parts of it). And of course he believed most Ukrainians love him and Russia. The last few months have slowly and painfully disabused him of that notion. And he is losing an existential war
So now it's: fuck Ukraine. 1. He wants revenge and 2. He needs to win and 3. Ukraine will pay in blood and famine
I said, after the Kerch Attack, that in the coming days a lot of Ukrainians will die. So it is
Putin was losing - and badly. But he has POSSIBLY found a way to turn it around. All out attack on Ukrainian infrastructure
Whether this works depends on Ukrainian ability to repair shit, and his supply of missiles and drones. If he runs out soon, he won't win, but if he gets enough...
I wonder if he is asking China. Give me missiles, then I can win the war, no need for nukes. They might say Yes
With their chaotic mobilisation and increasingly open intra-elite jockeying for power, Russia still looks like the loser at the moment.
Have a look at the links at the bottom. The results are interesting ...
https://www.parliament.uk/about/mps-and-lords/members/pay-mps/pension-fund/
And the valuations on the links on the right don't seem terribly up to date.
Remember that one of the big drivers for the Brexit vote in England was the lack of democratic accountability - people being sick of taken for granted by the politicians. An English parliament with Devo Max and more decisions made locally is a fix for that issue.
Until you know the long term damage there's no point in hitting the doom juice
We need to increase supply of domestic power vastly, quicker than has been hitherto believed possible. That's how we can 'help'.
If he can permanently deprive entire cities of water, power, heat, even food, then what choice do they have but surrender? In a Ukrainian winter? Think of it a medieval siege, but with missiles
Of course we don't know if he can do this. He will need tons of ordnance. And the Ukes might be brilliant at repair. And his army is still shit
But yes I can see how an unbridled assault on advanced nation infrastructure could win a war. It would be evil and imhumane, but this is Putin
What are we proposing that NATO do about it though? They'll run out of missiles, so we could help Ukraine fix the smashed infrastructure on the basis that the Russian's can't keep smashing it forever.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P-irXF24a7w
I’m still not seeing any lorry.
You are correct however about increasing supply, fast.
@MBielieskov
Nobody has won war through conventional mid-range missiles’ terror. RU will only prove this rule.
https://twitter.com/MBielieskov/status/1579354925028737025
He won't care about damaging areas he now realises he has no means to take and hold, but Ukraine is a bloody big place itself, which is easy to forget given it is next to Russia - he cannot break it all.
I've noticed a drought and hot weather this year in southern England. The weather isn't getting any milder. Our countryside is one of the most nature depleted landscapes in the world. We can't assume it will have the required resilience to continue being productive.
It's a new world we are entering. Making law that stops us adapting is unlikely to help.
Meanwhile the "truck inspector" could be anyone. Born in Kharkiv. Or a guy with a girlfriend in Mariupol
He just needs to win. To get Ukraine to surrender. And he will do whatever it takes (if he has the means)
Asking the question did the bridge explosion happen in the wrong place, in other words were they planning to blow the main road and rail arch over the Kerch strait and detonated too soon?
That would explain a few things, but also would lend credence to the idea this must have been a lorry bomb.
The thing that makes it obviously fake is it is during the day.
The attack took place at dawn. It was still dark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxgWCsampJg
He's so tied himself in knots with the anti-woke/pro-Trump/pro-Putin crowd of extremists online that this is psychologically incomprehensible to him.
Big French and German companies also have significant liabilities - particularly the semi-government, semi-private sector ones like EDF and Deutsche Telekom.
The UK is not in a great place, but it's probably in no worse a place than most of the developed world.
He did, of course, say that this was just from an economics and environment point of viee, and that many other considerations - not least aesthetics - should come into account.
He also said - and I was totally unaware pf this - that legislation comes into force next year that rented accomodation needs to be category C energy efficient. There is no way to achieve this economically even if the workforce were available to do it - are landlords of bog standard houses going to pay out £30k just to stay in the rental market, or will they offload? Which implies something of a forthcoming lack of rental properties and glut of housing for sale.
Also, autonomous cars - they're just around the corner. 5 years or so. But they'll never work in Cornwall or on any 'difficult' roads. Not for another decade, anyway.
In return for this protection, the funds are supposed to have uniform levels of actuarial accounting, and to keep their funds well funded.
https://samf.substack.com/p/retribution-and-regime-change?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
'Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used. This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath’s tantrum.'
Just an alternative viewpoint.
Look at the CCTV from the bridge deck:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fxgWCsampJg
1. Yes, it’s dark.
2. There’s still no exploding lorry. All the lorries in the picture are in the wrong place as the explosion happens.
As it happens, I don't see much logic in investing in solar here rather than wind or tidal power - it seems the equivalent of investing in tidal power in Mongolia, we should play to our geographical strengths, and massive solar investment in Germany has done sod all for their energy or indeed their carbon footprint - but I could well be wrong, and if someone can make it work in an economically viable way, they should go for it.
No matter how brave you are, if someone is repeatedly smashing you in the face with a hammer, you will say: Stop. Perhaps in the hope that you will survive to take revenge?
In the long term there is nothing here for Russia but defeat, misery and pain, because Ukrainians will hate them forever, and there are 40m of them, and they are right next door to Russia
But in the short term, Yes I reckon Putin can win DEPENDING on his ordnance
ChrisO
@ChrisO_wiki
1/ Finland's national broadcaster Yle has published an interesting interview with an explosive ordnance disposal expert, retired Major Myka Tyry of the Finnish Defence Forces, on the Crimea Bridge blast. He makes a number of points I've not seen elsewhere.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1579480666282287104
Wrong time of day for a start. The explosion was at 06:07 local time, sunrise wasn't until 06:41. It should be a lot darker, cars would have their lights on.
To try and get a crumb of comfort from this, perhaps the fact that Putin has managed to still be a credible nuisance makes a negotiated settlement more likely. If he'd just continued getting drubbed, there would have been zero incentive for Ukraine to offer anything that would have been acceptable to Putin's home audience.
One of the things we learned from WW2, is that you could have utterly destroyed cities, with no water or power, and yet life continued.
Shit life, for sure, but let's not pretend that Russia is managing even 1% of the devastation that the US and the UK wreaked on Germany in the last years of the warm, and which barely dented either industrial production or the will to resist.
Your metaphor fails as hammers are very targeted instruments that are used with precision normally to strike just where required.
Russia is the one getting smashed in the face with a hammer, they're the ones having the ammunition dumps destroyed, military pegged back and so on.
All Putin is doing is the equivalent of throwing stones at windows from across the road. He's lashing out indiscriminately, but he's not targeting with any great success the supplies, infrastructure, or equipment necessary to make a difference in the war.
Additionally, if conventional missile strikes look like they may turn the tide in the war then the US will step in and provide the best anti-missile tech and suddenly that option disappears too. I'm also not sure that Russia has enough working conventional missiles to do it and they are struggling to source parts to repair the ones that don't work and build new ones, specifically some of their missiles rely on Ukrainian made parts for construction and maintenance.
What is supposed to happen in the event of a pension fund being actuarially insolvent is this:
(1) The parent tops it up
(2) If the parent is unable to top it up and goes bust
Then
(3) The insurance scheme backs it to 90%
The government is contractually on the hook.
Bridges are designed to take loads from above. As we've seen from the multiple hits on the bridge in Kherson (albeit with less explosive) it is very hard to take such a structure down from the top of the deck.
To do it you would essentially have to blast the whole roadway in half, including the steel reinforcement.
From below (or to one side), you only have to destroy the supports on which each section rests or blow the bridge off them entirely. Most bridge decks are not fixed down as they have to move on bearings to accommodate thermal expansion. Sufficient force from below would lift them off.
In addition, water is essentially incompressible in an explosion so nearly 100% of the force will go upwards if you blow something on the surface. It would be a much more efficient use of explosive.
I think it is very very unlikely to have been a truck bomb.
But terror bombing did defeat the Japanese - a much more advanced society, which is interesting in itself
Anyway you are of course right. The question is does he have the missiles/drones to keep this up? Almost certainly not, at the moment. But he will be begging China and Iran for more
China might help out, if it sees this as a way of ensuring Putin's survival, and avoiding him going nuclear
None of that applies today.
That's not a dashcam It's a handheld camera (phone presumably) which is dropped at the time of the explosion. Why would this happen?
The other carriageway must be at least 4x further away. That's 64x less force...
Having said that, it does look to have shifted slightly. I wouldn't have recommended crossing it, but this is Russia we are talking about...
The terrifying thing is that so much effort is being made by western propagandists on certain websites to spread the idea that they don't work, or that they might work if launched but the commanders would never manage to launch them successfully, or if they did launch some it would only be a few that managed to get through to targets, so few as to make WW3 an utterly good idea if Russia doesn't act as the USA wants it to.
One inconvenient thing for those who are spreading such evil war propaganda is that the whole of US nuclear weapons policy, as well as the existence of NATO etc., has been predicated on the idea that Soviet and now Russian strategic nukes actually do work. So if only all the western strategists between say 1950 and 2020 could have seen ahead a few decades and got their wisdom from Twitter...
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
"Which party do you trust to manage economy?"
1. Labour + Starmer 40%
2. Neither 28%
3. Don't know 15%
4. Conservatives + Truss 13%
Not even 2019 Tories & Leavers back Conservative gvt. Their most popular option is "neither"
YouGov
'Ratnered' doesn't capture the full scale of it.
(0-49 = Good, 50-99 = Moderate, 100-149 = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, 150-199 = Unhealthy, 200-299 = Very Unhealthy, 300+ = Hazardous)
01 - Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia = 160
02 - Lahore, Pakistan = 159
03 - Seattle, WA, USA = 152
04 - Jakarta, Indonesia = 149
05 - Portland, OR, USA = 141
10 - Karachi, Pakistan = 97
23 - Vancouver, BC, Canada = 74
29 - Dubai, UAE = 68
30 - Los Angeles, CA, USA = 66
34 - Paris, France = 61
40 - New York City, NY, USA = 55
45 - Tokyo, Japan = 53
56 - Vienna, Austria = 45
63 - Mexico City, Mexico = 29
72 - Melbourne, Australia = 25
80 - San Francisco, CA, USA = 18
89 - Kyiv, Ukraine = 12
90 - London, UK = 12
https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
SSI - surprise for yours truly re: above list, is Mexico City.
But I get the sense that is what the Russians will now try and do. And it comes back to their supply of suitable weapons
They want her gone, or to be paid a massive premium on the pound and UK debt.
We're not seeing a powerful modern nation attempt that today either.
We're seeing an impotent failed state lashing out with a few missiles from a limited stockpile.
My wife and I are fortunate that we are comfortable and really want for nothing, but as far as our children and grandchildren are concerned we do worry greatly for them, and everyone who is not as fortunate
I am politically homeless and ashamed that Truss and Kwarteng got anywhere near power, but then I am not sure there is a politician or politicians who have even started to grasp just how serious this all is
I busy myself rather than constantly listening to negative news that just gets more depressing hour by hour
Mind you PB is the best place for news and discussion, even if at times it gets a bit overheated
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1579522199878537216