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A CON majority drops to a 17% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
A CON majority drops to a 17% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
Given the way the polls have moved in the last week or so this morning’s big conference speech was always going to be tricky for the new PM. Her party has dropped to its worst position for decades and so far punters don’t anticipate any change.
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Could be in single digits now.
@Parody_PM
·
16h
Replying to
@trussliz
and
@Conservatives
My speech is almost finished. I just need to go through and mark all the places where I pause and smile gormlessly while waiting for a laugh that doesn't come.
At the moment it's just
1) Get growth (somehow)
2)......
3)......
4)......
5) Profit!
What's needed is how that will impact upon people's lifes in a tangible and clear way and how we get from A to B. How are public services going to be improved, how are people getting more opportunities and freedom etc.
Even if we get growth, if people don't feel it, then it's pointless.
There's very little which they've sad how so far.
My wife, who is rarely WFH today due to being poorly, popped into the room to see Truss' speech. She has zero interest in politics. "She's so weird, and she just says anything she likes. Of all the people they could have chosen, why her?"
Why indeed.
Maybe she wanted to prove that she has influences other than Thatcher.
Even if it involved eating larval tapeworms or something drastic. No worse than Ms Dorries in the jungle and macropod testes/rectums (whatever it was).
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-horrifying-legacy-of-the-victorian-tapeworm-diet
Edit: not a point I would normally raise, but if you are thinking that she would find it hard to front that campaign, given the nature of politics and the media, and with some truth whether we like it or not, then there is a positive solution. Whatever the actual diet.
If Majors government had been experiencing this sort of dysfunction 1997 would have probably left the Tories sub-100 seats.
The reason Labour will win the next GE is because pretty much anyone can look at the government now and say that they need to be removed. Labour are the alternative and whilst SKS is not Blair, they look measured and competent so it’s worth giving them a go.
Did anyone check to see if she was wearing a necklace also?
Today it's 6.24%
Any good/redeeming points whatsoever?
I'd rate a Tory majority under Truss at less than 10%.
And no it is not Truss but looks like oil producers are going to limit supplies
But I still want to know about the speech as apart from his (and Lewis Goodall's on his programme) I have no feedback. In particular any good things about it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-63083486
The sheer stupidity, incompetence and staggering shitness of putting a handcuffed woman in the back of a squad car... that is parked on a railway line.
I hope she recovers well, and gets massive compensation from the ********.
The usual suspects who really disliked her already will continue to dislike her, but actually many people have said she did better than expected.
She handled the hecklers pretty well too, responding with a smile and a decent joke about them, which is the best way to handle hecklers.
Everyone is glad this is over.
I expect she remains in place not least as the utter disruption of removing her just now is a worse prospect but she will be removed in 23 if she cannot turn things round
That is just awful. The concept of qualified immunity for Police that America has, which never seems to actually be qualified, needs abolishing. Those officers should be facing criminal charges.
Opposing tax breaks to the super rich when people are struggling to make ends meet has absolutely nothing to do with growth.
All governments of every flavour like growth.
US mortgage rates highest in 16 years
In fairness, it wasn't really really terrible. We didn't have an excursus into Peppa Pig land or anything like that. It was just dull, so, so, so dull.
and not the more nuanced question of "who do I think is the best choice to be PM and has a chance of winning our batshit crazy second stage?"
https://twitter.com/peston/status/1577618964607270915
When you label opponents there has to be something tangible there for it to be effective. Pretending Sunak for example is against growth is simply absurd. He just has a different path to get there which does not involve bankruptcy and wiping out the Tory parliamentary party to achieve it.
OED confirms: To sum up in a few words; to state concisely.Eg Twain Life on Mississippi The clerk nut-shelled the contrast between the former time and the present.
Edit: both nutshell and nut-shell forms are listed.
That's the Chancellor's fault, that is.
The bigger problem is that the backbench rebels will probably defeat her reforms, as they did when Boris tried to get sensible zoning reforms through, in which case the Tories deserve to lose the next election.
Ironically, I reckon Labour voters are less inclined to Nimbyism. Being largely city/urban dwellers, they are more familiar with, and tolerant of, large-scale building or infrastructure projects.
No point pandering to opinion polls if you're going to lose anyway. There can be advantages to being a lame duck.
There's no reason to hold those seats, if you're going to be big state NIMBYs interfering in the market with those seats.
It is more the LDs, Greens and Residents Associations who are the biggest opposition to new development and easing planning laws, not Labour. Especially as in the greenbelt and home counties they are often the main opposition to the Tories at council level, not Labour.
Labour councillors are mainly based in big cities and suburbs and university towns
Unfortunately for Truss the news will show the Greenpeace protests. Although Truss dealt with this well the slogan who voted for this? Really sums up what many feel . The public did not vote for Truss and she is now without any democratic mandate embarking on a set of policies no one voted for apart from 80,000 Tory members .
Liz Truss - Never knowingly underestimating the Conservative party devastation.
I have hope Truss won't, but if backbench rebels thinking like you block any reforms or house building then maybe a vote for Labour would be the right response?
* other Lib Dem parties with different policies are available where nimby votes aren't important...
Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador
As things are moving fast on the Kherson front I drew up a few maps to explain the situation.
A short thread🧵:
In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one
1/n
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937
If they succeed in getting the laws right so homes are built, then that may lead to a Lib Dem win.
If they fail to get the laws right so homes aren't built, then they deserve to lose the seat to the Lib Dems anyway.
If you're not going to use your limited time in office to do something for the good of the country, only to try to extend your limited time in office, then you don't deserve any time in the first place.
Cleverly too.
Any port in a storm doesn't transform Grimsby into Rotterdam.
David__Osland
@David__Osland
Liz Truss's speech is the strongest attack on the last five Conservative governments I've ever heard outside a Labour conference fringe meeting
11:49 AM · Oct 5, 2022