If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
I take no pleasure in pointing out that I have been warning for weeks of the dangers of 'beating back Putin' in Ukraine.
This thing, about young men fleeing the country, is not great. Who is going to overthrow and replace the regime and build a better one?
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
The current strategy of the Treasury and Downing St is to sit tight during market turmoil, including emergency Bank of England market intervention, and characterise the currency and bond shocks as inevitable teething problems from radical supply side reform… programme. PM and Chancellor don’t want to seem cowed or panicky. So they will stick to 23 Nov timetable for unveiling schedule for unveiling how and when they will reverse rise in national debt, and will only gradually reveal non fiscal supply side reforms, namely… deregulation of the labour market and the planning waivers and tax breaks of their proposed investment zones. They hope by saying “crisis, what crisis?” the markets and their Tory MP colleagues will calm down. This may be the triumph of hope over history
Got to say that plan isn't going to work - it will last until the first statement at the Tory conference at best
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Very possible. I always have a month or so worth of emergency supplies
I have 5+ months' supply of food, including lots of flour and dried beans.
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
So, to summarise, we're staring down the barrel of a currency crisis, collapsing pension funds, a house price crash, spiraling inflation and 4+ years of woke Labour government, and it's all because some idiot took a suitcase on a late night booze run. Fantastic.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
“We are now watching the real-time implosion of the governing party. It’s going to be a hell of a show, though sadly the tickets will prove expensive.”
So, to summarise, we're staring down the barrel of a currency crisis, collapsing pension funds, a house price crash, spiraling inflation and 4+ years of woke Labour government, and it's all because some idiot took a suitcase on a late night booze run. Fantastic.
Almost, though BoJo looked like he survived that one.
It was his backing of Mr Pincher (remember him?) that tipped MPs over the edge.
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
War is coming, the world fx and bond markets are in serious strife, the fed is on operation crush everyone then flatten the US. Perfect storm. All can be solved by reversing the 45p tax rate removal and a Great British start up green energy company
It is time - nay, it is high time - indeed, the time is long overdue - for Prime Minister.... RICHARD BURGON
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
Seems sensible to me as it prevents Germany getting gas directly from Russia. This ties Germany closer to the hawks - Poland and the US. It's a win for Ukraine.
Overnight it dismantles about a decade of German energy policy. Hard to see the Russians doing that.
A faction of German politics wanting to end the reliance on Russia?
The mistake in all this is assuming countries , political parties and governments are monoliths.
Even Putin runs a coalition - hence the last moment recasting of his announcement.
An act of sabotage on this scale can really only have been done by a Government and the only two realistic candidates would be the USA (probably with NATO knowledge and consent) and Russia (who I doubt Russia would have the expertise.)
But what's the politics behind it. I just don't understand.
The sabotage could have been done with a remote piloted underwater vehicle placing some devices on the pipeline.
That would once have required major technology. Now it is off the shelf.
The question is whether it was done from a surface vessel (lots of people, including sub national groups could do that), or from a submarine “mother vessel”
The US and the Russians definitely have such submarines. Other navies have some capability to carry ROVs on their subs and operate them like that.
What's happening is horrendous. People's livelihoods, homes, aspirations are being flushed away by incompetent fools in this new Government.
We need a General Election.
How soon before we see a 20% Labour lead in the polls? I don't think we've seen one of those for 21 years.
Starmer is no Blair but Liz Truss is no John Major. Apart from Black Wednesday, the Conservatives actually bequeathed to Labour an economy in rude health.
Liz Truss is indeed not John Major. Liz Truss would never have signed up to a scheme as insane as the EMS.
Even if Truss can get through the economic crisis her authority with her own MPs is shot. They have no reason to trust her judgement and no reason to vote for policies they think are wrong. https://www.ft.com/content/e6884fa0-5897-44e7-a990-354ac743571a
Do we really think Biden did Nordstream? I don't buy it.
I think this is Putin cutting off Russia from Europe. Possibly to put down some internal resistance to escalation - with no gas to bargain with, no way back now.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories
About as believable as "the Sudetenland is the last territorial claim I have to make".
They will also want Odessa. They must prevent Ukraine being able to exploit the Oil and Gas reserves found in the Black Sea, and hence challenging Russia's status as main gas supplier to Germany. This could really be the underlying cause of Russia's annexation of Crimea and their action this year.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
It also shows how weak Putin's position is, in February he though he would have Kyiv in 3 days.
“We are now watching the real-time implosion of the governing party. It’s going to be a hell of a show, though sadly the tickets will prove expensive.”
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
And he won't be able to force that. His minders blocked him from a full mobilization so they will sure as he'll block him from full war with NATO.
The current strategy of the Treasury and Downing St is to sit tight during market turmoil, including emergency Bank of England market intervention, and characterise the currency and bond shocks as inevitable teething problems from radical supply side reform… programme. PM and Chancellor don’t want to seem cowed or panicky. So they will stick to 23 Nov timetable for unveiling schedule for unveiling how and when they will reverse rise in national debt, and will only gradually reveal non fiscal supply side reforms, namely… deregulation of the labour market and the planning waivers and tax breaks of their proposed investment zones. They hope by saying “crisis, what crisis?” the markets and their Tory MP colleagues will calm down. This may be the triumph of hope over history
Got to say that plan isn't going to work - it will last until the first statement at the Tory conference at best
Deregulation of the labour market in other words removing protections and getting rid of the working time directive !
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Surely that’s been the US travel advice to their citizens, for months, though? Have they really waited until now?!
Some debate about this on Twitter. Apparently it echoes advice given in Feb and repeated in August. Tho others are saying the message has a new expressive urgency
It is being repeated elsewhere
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland and Bulgaria advised their citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible.
The United States Embassy in Moscow asks Americans to leave Russia immediately"
So, to summarise, we're staring down the barrel of a currency crisis, collapsing pension funds, a house price crash, spiraling inflation and 4+ years of woke Labour government, and it's all because some idiot took a suitcase on a late night booze run. Fantastic.
It’s happened before. Remember the Austrian guy who got turned down for art school?
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
War is coming, the world fx and bond markets are in serious strife, the fed is on operation crush everyone then flatten the US. Perfect storm. All can be solved by reversing the 45p tax rate removal and a Great British start up green energy company
It is time - nay, it is high time - indeed, the time is long overdue - for Prime Minister.... RICHARD BURGON
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
The Russians may be stupid, but they can also learn. in 6/8 years time they will try to take more if they are able. and they won't make the same mistakes.
My money is on the latter as she looked good doing the Royal Funeral, and she might shore up a bit of support in the Red Wall
The Tories surely know they are finished; it is damage limitation now
Of course all this is fairly irrelevant if Eurasia is plunged into a wider war, which now looks horribly plausible
even my dad rang me this morning to tell me he will never vote conservative again and hes voted tory all his life...
I'm contemplating writing to my Tory MP along the lines of "I last voted Labour in 1983 when I was young and foolish and will vote for them next time now I'm old and sensible".
I mean, this is ridiculous. If these MPs are refusing to go to conference, yet are allowing this government to stand, they are just petty self serving *****. If they think things are so bad they should leave the party or VoNC the government.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
He has already lost as many young Russian men to third countries as the initial 300,000 mobilisation was supposed to find. Those running will include the brightest and best (and richest and thickest too, admittedly) that will set Russia back decades. It is set to be the Middlesbrough of the world - why the hell would you not get out of that place in search of something better?
And that is 300,000 women having to make do with an uncouth Siberian pig farmer. Or else leave too, searching for a decent husband.
They are going to hope all those stolen Ukrainian kids never do a DNA test and realise where they came from.
I mean, this is ridiculous. If these MPs are refusing to go to conference, yet are allowing this government to stand, they are just petty self serving *****. If they think things are so bad they should leave the party or VoNC the government.
with the tories its always party before country...absolutely pathetic
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
I still find the pathway to majority for Labour difficult - the SNP hold onto Scotland so tightly I don't see them making gains there. Wales looks like it will be Con free under current polling, and Labour will gain those over anyone else. And I can imagine some Red Wall seats coming "back" to Labour. I just don't know if there are enough competitive seats in the home counties, south and rurally? Maybe the LDs do well enough to win seats / prevent the Tories winning them? Maybe this economic ruin is so bad Tories just won't vote?
I agree. To get a majority (326) they need to win 124 seats + every seat they won last time - 124+202.
In the top 124 target seats are 17 SNP seats, where they will struggle to impact. Plus there will be some losses to someone though maybe only a few. So for a majority you have to look down to target 145 or thereabouts. But several of those also are SNP so difficult. So look to target 153 and consider how likely it is that Labour will win Rochford and Southend East, which they may need to do to get 326 seats. Swing needed: 13.31%.
I still don't put that as a 32% chance. Though no-one can accuse the Tories of not trying to give Labour a thumping majority, but the valiant Tory effort may not be enough.
Right now holding Rochford is highly optimistic. If they don't sort this quickly it will be between total extinction and 100 seats. They might easily get destroyed by a split and new centre right or populist right alternative
“We are now watching the real-time implosion of the governing party. It’s going to be a hell of a show, though sadly the tickets will prove expensive.”
“the elevation of ideology over economics ….. there is an underlying unmentionable: the economic damage caused by Brexit, more particularly the fantasy economics of its hardline Conservative realisation.” https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1575120306477436930
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
More importantly, RUSSIA cannot survive more of this. The demographic impact between emigration and war deaths will be massive. It won't just be the loss of this generation, but far fewer kids in the next due their parents not being there. And even the people that stayed and didn't die will be economically screwed, so won't be able to afford kids.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
I think less, but a hell of a lot more than 0, which is really not a place we want to be.
Do we really think Biden did Nordstream? I don't buy it.
I think this is Putin cutting off Russia from Europe. Possibly to put down some internal resistance to escalation - with no gas to bargain with, no way back now.
That's the scenario that makes the most sense to me. It's Russia burning the bridges, so that any party in Russia who thinks "we'll get rid of Putin and the clocks will magically turn back to late 2021" no longer has that option.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
You don't give a f***ing shit about what country people who actually live in those territories want to live in, do you?
All you know is you hate the Russians, Soviets, war criminals, disrespecters of private property rights, whatever those filthy foreigners who don't know how to hold a knife and fork properly call themselves, and kill kill kill.
Nobody would want you anywhere near decision making in a conflict.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
Depends if Liz's letters have made it onto the Trident sub yet.
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Surely that’s been the US travel advice to their citizens, for months, though? Have they really waited until now?!
Some debate about this on Twitter. Apparently it echoes advice given in Feb and repeated in August. Tho others are saying the message has a new expressive urgency
It is being repeated elsewhere
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland and Bulgaria advised their citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible.
The United States Embassy in Moscow asks Americans to leave Russia immediately"
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
You don't give a f***ing shit about what country people who actually live in those territories want to live in, do you?
The ones who are left after the Z fascists' ethnic cleansing?
Do we really think Biden did Nordstream? I don't buy it.
I think this is Putin cutting off Russia from Europe. Possibly to put down some internal resistance to escalation - with no gas to bargain with, no way back now.
The Nordstream 2 pipeline allows Russia to send gas to Western Europe without paying transit fees to Ukraine and Poland. Russia just completed it in the teeth of massive opposition from Ukraine, Poland and USA.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
Only if Ukrainain forces break through into the Donbass. More likely it just ends up in stalemate for the foreseeable future.
Even if they did at most it would be a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukranian forces, he is not going to directly attack a NATO nation which he knows means defeat. It would just be a tactical warning to Ukraine to pull back
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
It was clearly sabotage. Who are the Russians blaming? The only way it benefits them is as a causus belli against Nato countries. Do they really want to go there?
To me the most obvious actors here are Ukraine. This war has shown/developed their special forces to a very high level as the various explosions deep behind enemy lines showed. The closure of the Nord 1 removes the possibility of EU countries folding and deciding that they need to buy Russian gas again, it puts huge additional pressure on Putin and his cronies because they can no longer have reasonable expectations of selling gas to the west and this in turn makes it more difficult for Russia to buy kit like Iranian drones to boost their own inadequate equipment.
Ukraine will never admit this of course but on a cui bono basis they are the stand out candidates.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Its always Private Fraser levels of doom from you, almost no matter what the issue. The point is not that Putin is a thuggish and tyrannical murderer, of course he is, but that is also why he is losing the war, and he will lose everything in fairly short shrift. The fact that the Yanks are warning their citizens in Russia is a bit of psych against Putin, so calm down, change your undies and pour yourself a refreshing glass of Chilean, without actually needing to go there. Despite the risk of nuclear naughtiness, it is probable that by mid-next year we will be toasting the downfall of Sauron and looking forward to a much better world.
The nutters in Downing St will be taken down soon enough.
If Murdoch, Trump and Tucker Carlson are also out of the way it might even be a very good year.
The current strategy of the Treasury and Downing St is to sit tight during market turmoil, including emergency Bank of England market intervention, and characterise the currency and bond shocks as inevitable teething problems from radical supply side reform… programme. PM and Chancellor don’t want to seem cowed or panicky. So they will stick to 23 Nov timetable for unveiling schedule for unveiling how and when they will reverse rise in national debt, and will only gradually reveal non fiscal supply side reforms, namely… deregulation of the labour market and the planning waivers and tax breaks of their proposed investment zones. They hope by saying “crisis, what crisis?” the markets and their Tory MP colleagues will calm down. This may be the triumph of hope over history
Got to say that plan isn't going to work - it will last until the first statement at the Tory conference at best
Deregulation of the labour market in other words removing protections and getting rid of the working time directive !
What does that solve? You may get a few low paid people working a few more hours but it won't do much more.
The issue isn't working hours - it's productivity and that requires investment in equipment and investing in training
My money is on the latter as she looked good doing the Royal Funeral, and she might shore up a bit of support in the Red Wall
The Tories surely know they are finished; it is damage limitation now
Of course all this is fairly irrelevant if Eurasia is plunged into a wider war, which now looks horribly plausible
even my dad rang me this morning to tell me he will never vote conservative again and hes voted tory all his life...
I'm contemplating writing to my Tory MP along the lines of "I last voted Labour in 1983 when I was young and foolish and will vote for them next time now I'm old and sensible".
I won't be voting Tory but Labour can also fuck right off.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
It also shows how weak Putin's position is, in February he though he would have Kyiv in 3 days.
I've often been sceptical of the "Great Man" theory of history, but if Zelenskyy had accepted US/UK offers to evacuate him from Kyiv in February then that invasion would have largely been successful, and we'd be in a much darker reality. Sometimes history does turn on fine margins and personal judgements.
My money is on the latter as she looked good doing the Royal Funeral, and she might shore up a bit of support in the Red Wall
The Tories surely know they are finished; it is damage limitation now
Of course all this is fairly irrelevant if Eurasia is plunged into a wider war, which now looks horribly plausible
even my dad rang me this morning to tell me he will never vote conservative again and hes voted tory all his life...
I'm contemplating writing to my Tory MP along the lines of "I last voted Labour in 1983 when I was young and foolish and will vote for them next time now I'm old and sensible".
I won't be voting Tory but Labour can also fuck right off.
A very common view in the coming months, I think....
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Its always Private Fraser levels of doom from you, almost no matter what the issue. The point is not that Putin is a thuggish and tyrannical murderer, of course he is, but that is also why he is losing the war, and he will lose everything in fairly short shrift. The fact that the Yanks are warning their citizens in Russia is a bit of psych against Putin, so calm down, change your undies and pour yourself a refreshing glass of Chilean, without actually needing to go there. Despite the risk of nuclear naughtiness, it is probable that by mid-next year we will be toasting the downfall of Sauron and looking forward to a much better world.
The nutters in Downing St will be taken down soon enough.
If Murdoch, Trump and Tucker Carlson are also out of the way it might even be a very good year.
Nah, you'll be dead in about two weeks, from radiation poisoning across the Baltics
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
It was clearly sabotage. Who are the Russians blaming? The only way it benefits them is as a causus belli against Nato countries. Do they really want to go there?
To me the most obvious actors here are Ukraine. This war has shown/developed their special forces to a very high level as the various explosions deep behind enemy lines showed. The closure of the Nord 1 removes the possibility of EU countries folding and deciding that they need to buy Russian gas again, it puts huge additional pressure on Putin and his cronies because they can no longer have reasonable expectations of selling gas to the west and this in turn makes it more difficult for Russia to buy kit like Iranian drones to boost their own inadequate equipment.
Ukraine will never admit this of course but on a cui bono basis they are the stand out candidates.
Except that a) they have no recorded means of doing so and b) annoying Germany is totally not in their interest, This is defo a Russian op.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
A couple of jars of lutefisk would mean you have your own WMDs for the post apocalyptic aftermath…
I think you’re confusing the mild (but weirdly slimy) Christmas ’lutfisk’ with the explosive stench of Norrland’s ’surströmming’, traditionally consumed in late August, when more southern Swedes are enjoying langoustines (on west coast) or crayfish (inland).
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
You don't give a f***ing shit about what country people who actually live in those territories want to live in, do you?
All you know is you hate the Russians, Soviets, war criminals, disrespecters of private property rights, whatever those filthy foreigners who don't know how to hold a knife and fork properly call themselves, and kill kill kill.
Nobody would want you anywhere near decision making in a conflict.
So have a ceasefire, remove ALL invading troops and then have a UN organised referendum. You know, without soldiers going door to door with the ballot paper indicating which box to tick with the end of their rifle.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Surely that’s been the US travel advice to their citizens, for months, though? Have they really waited until now?!
Some debate about this on Twitter. Apparently it echoes advice given in Feb and repeated in August. Tho others are saying the message has a new expressive urgency
It is being repeated elsewhere
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland and Bulgaria advised their citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible.
The United States Embassy in Moscow asks Americans to leave Russia immediately"
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
a) introduced martial law? b) banned men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country?
Bonus points for anyone who calls me rude names for asking.
I'm gonna have a wild guess that it is the country which was subject to a massive, unprovoked invasion, complete with rape and torture of thousands of its citizens? THAT country
I mean, this is ridiculous. If these MPs are refusing to go to conference, yet are allowing this government to stand, they are just petty self serving *****. If they think things are so bad they should leave the party or VoNC the government.
It's clear the financial markets have lost confidence in this government. The Opposition should probably table a No Confidence motion to test whether the Commons still has confidence in the government.
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
You don't give a f***ing shit about what country people who actually live in those territories want to live in, do you?
All you know is you hate the Russians, Soviets, war criminals, disrespecters of private property rights, whatever those filthy foreigners who don't know how to hold a knife and fork properly call themselves, and kill kill kill.
Nobody would want you anywhere near decision making in a conflict.
Still trolling I see. Do go away or we will set the NAFO dogs on you.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
a) introduced martial law? b) banned men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country?
Bonus points for anyone who calls me rude names for asking.
I'm gonna have a wild guess that it is the country which was subject to a massive, unprovoked invasion, complete with rape and torture of thousands of its citizens? THAT country
The country which is an active war zone has declared martial law? The horror!
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
"All they want" is 20% of the territory of their neighbour, whom they attacked in an act of wanton aggression. How about I steal 20% of your property and then say "hey, I only want this 20%, you get to keep 80%, seems like a fair deal?"
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
It also shows how weak Putin's position is, in February he though he would have Kyiv in 3 days.
I've often been sceptical of the "Great Man" theory of history, but if Zelenskyy had accepted US/UK offers to evacuate him from Kyiv in February then that invasion would have largely been successful, and we'd be in a much darker reality. Sometimes history does turn on fine margins and personal judgements.
Hitler gets a bad rap, but he made some counter-intuitive decisions in the early stages of WW2 that worked, such as the 'not an inch back' at the end of Barbarossa.
Happily for the rest of the world he then assumed this would work every time and allowed a far quicker defeat of Nazi Germany than if the professional army had run the defence. In general I think great men/women really can influence history, albeit against a broad sweep of general direction.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
a) introduced martial law? b) banned men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country?
Bonus points for anyone who calls me rude names for asking.
I'm gonna have a wild guess that it is the country which was subject to a massive, unprovoked invasion, complete with rape and torture of thousands of its citizens? THAT country
He was doing quite well till then. Pity - off to the front.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
a) introduced martial law? b) banned men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country?
Bonus points for anyone who calls me rude names for asking.
Ukraine. In response to the existential threat posed to the Ukrainian state by the aggressive invasion of it by their neighbour, Russia. It's a terrible situation, one necessitated by the circumstances caused by Russia. Russia caused this situation and so is responsible for it. They did this to Ukraine.
What's happening is horrendous. People's livelihoods, homes, aspirations are being flushed away by incompetent fools in this new Government.
We need a General Election.
How soon before we see a 20% Labour lead in the polls? I don't think we've seen one of those for 21 years.
Starmer is no Blair but Liz Truss is no John Major. Apart from Black Wednesday, the Conservatives actually bequeathed to Labour an economy in rude health.
Only two years, or maybe a little more, until the general election!
And, of course, your last sentence should have started "Because of".
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
Its always Private Fraser levels of doom from you, almost no matter what the issue. The point is not that Putin is a thuggish and tyrannical murderer, of course he is, but that is also why he is losing the war, and he will lose everything in fairly short shrift. The fact that the Yanks are warning their citizens in Russia is a bit of psych against Putin, so calm down, change your undies and pour yourself a refreshing glass of Chilean, without actually needing to go there. Despite the risk of nuclear naughtiness, it is probable that by mid-next year we will be toasting the downfall of Sauron and looking forward to a much better world.
The nutters in Downing St will be taken down soon enough.
If Murdoch, Trump and Tucker Carlson are also out of the way it might even be a very good year.
Nah, you'll be dead in about two weeks, from radiation poisoning across the Baltics
Tell you what, we could have a bet on it
£50 says you'll be dead by October 12th? Deal?
But I want you to put the money in escrow
Money is so vulgar, what about sharing a bottle of good champagne? If you are prepared to come to Tallinn to drink it, that is- Otherwise, I stand you a good whisky in the NLC, assuming flights have restarted by Christmas.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
yes i think putin wants direct conflict with the west now
Yes, that is my sense. He will take it to the absolute brink, because the alternative is defeat and probably death for him
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
The Telegraph podcast on Ukraine has been discussing Russian nukes a lot. They had a former NATO NBC commander who was pretty confident NATO could and would prevent any attempt by Russia to launch a tactical nuclear weapon by destroying any launcher as soon as it moved into position.
He was more worried about one of the Ukrainian nuclear plants being targeted. Russia landed a precision missile just a few hundred metres from one of the nuclear plant reactors recently, which he thought was a clear warning of that possibility.
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
I admit, it would be a radical escalation. Putin nukes the traitors inside Russia at the border crossing. Shows NATO he's prepared to go nuclear without actually attacking a NATO ally. Shows the men trying to flee that they will die one way or another. Etc.
Comments
They say their constituents are genuinely panicking and need urgent reassurance
'There's a vacuum of leadership and empathy,' one said
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1575117318128123906
"On the border with Kazakhstan, the Russians, who are waiting for their turn to cross the border, live in tents, cook food on braziers. Russia these days is experiencing a real biblical exodus - the Russians are fleeing from the Kremlin pharaoh, who wants to destroy them all."
https://twitter.com/cathy39637692/status/1575119694092288001?s=20&t=kNQUBWIUWwNY0-KuvgbZ0g
Therefore, he has to escalate again?
Robert Peston
The current strategy of the Treasury and Downing St is to sit tight during market turmoil, including emergency Bank of England market intervention, and characterise the currency and bond shocks as inevitable teething problems from radical supply side reform…
programme. PM and Chancellor don’t want to seem cowed or panicky. So they will stick to 23 Nov timetable for unveiling schedule for unveiling how and when they will reverse rise in national debt, and will only gradually reveal non fiscal supply side reforms, namely…
deregulation of the labour market and the planning waivers and tax breaks of their proposed investment zones. They hope by saying “crisis, what crisis?” the markets and their Tory MP colleagues will calm down. This may be the triumph of hope over history
Got to say that plan isn't going to work - it will last until the first statement at the Tory conference at best
Of course this is also after Crimea was stolen, then Luhansk and Donetsk was stolen, now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are being stolen. The idea that we could agree this and Russia would stop there is ridiculous. The Russians are untrustworthy war criminals. And Ukraine is winning. A much better option is to turf the orcs out and break Russia's military capacity for 50 years.
https://www.ft.com/content/e6884fa0-5897-44e7-a990-354ac743571a
It was his backing of Mr Pincher (remember him?) that tipped MPs over the edge.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1575119865672785923
That would once have required major technology. Now it is off the shelf.
The question is whether it was done from a surface vessel (lots of people, including sub national groups could do that), or from a submarine “mother vessel”
The US and the Russians definitely have such submarines. Other navies have some capability to carry ROVs on their subs and operate them like that.
Liz Truss is indeed not John Major. Liz Truss would never have signed up to a scheme as insane as the EMS.
https://www.ft.com/content/e6884fa0-5897-44e7-a990-354ac743571a
I think this is Putin cutting off Russia from Europe. Possibly to put down some internal resistance to escalation - with no gas to bargain with, no way back now.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1573197991221010433
It is being repeated elsewhere
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland and Bulgaria advised their citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible.
The United States Embassy in Moscow asks Americans to leave Russia immediately"
https://twitter.com/Pal_Finance/status/1575120345845141504?s=20&t=kNQUBWIUWwNY0-KuvgbZ0g
And that is 300,000 women having to make do with an uncouth Siberian pig farmer. Or else leave too, searching for a decent husband.
They are going to hope all those stolen Ukrainian kids never do a DNA test and realise where they came from.
And he won't especially care if it goes over the edge into a minor nuke strike
Chances of a nuclear weapon blowing up in the next ten weeks are now about 50%?
All you know is you hate the Russians, Soviets, war criminals, disrespecters of private property rights, whatever those filthy foreigners who don't know how to hold a knife and fork properly call themselves, and kill kill kill.
Nobody would want you anywhere near decision making in a conflict.
China must surely be wargaming it and thinking "We could just walk in and take all of it east of the Urals...."
The Nordstream 2 pipeline allows Russia to send gas to Western Europe without paying transit fees to Ukraine and Poland.
Russia just completed it in the teeth of massive opposition from Ukraine, Poland and USA.
Convince us it was Russia who blew it up
Even if they did at most it would be a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukranian forces, he is not going to directly attack a NATO nation which he knows means defeat. It would just be a tactical warning to Ukraine to pull back
Out of Russia and Ukraine, which country has
a) introduced martial law?
b) banned men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country?
Bonus points for anyone who calls me rude names for asking.
Ukraine will never admit this of course but on a cui bono basis they are the stand out candidates.
And now we are fucked
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/xq6i5o
These guys make Dad's Army look young.
Its always Private Fraser levels of doom from you, almost no matter what the issue. The point is not that Putin is a thuggish and tyrannical murderer, of course he is, but that is also why he is losing the war, and he will lose everything in fairly short shrift. The fact that the Yanks are warning their citizens in Russia is a bit of psych against Putin, so calm down, change your undies and pour yourself a refreshing glass of Chilean, without actually needing to go there. Despite the risk of nuclear naughtiness, it is probable that by mid-next year we will be toasting the downfall of Sauron and looking forward to a much better world.
The nutters in Downing St will be taken down soon enough.
If Murdoch, Trump and Tucker Carlson are also out of the way it might even be a very good year.
The issue isn't working hours - it's productivity and that requires investment in equipment and investing in training
One American chap, wounded in Europe was sent to the Pacific for Operation Olympic.
Assessed as 20% disabled, his leg buckled to the point of collapse jumping out of a truck. But they sent him anyway.
One WWII RAF bomber pilot had such poor vision that he had corrective goggles. Which didn’t give him 20/20…
"we will bring an end to it".
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662
Tell you what, we could have a bet on it
£50 says you'll be dead by October 12th? Deal?
But I want you to put the money in escrow
Although I agree with your sentiments about Mr Leon, he is entertaining, so give him some slack. Ninny? Perhaps more a big girl's blouse?
FFS.
I'll add a c) for anyone struggling (and to add some much needed missing context)
c) been invaded
'Half of my colleagues realise it, the Q is just how quickly will the other half catch up.'
MP predicts party may remove Truss, but doubts whether that would prevent an electoral rout
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1575092698306215936
“LIVE: Pound falls further after Bank of England's emergency move”
The pound is now above where it was when the BoE made their statement - and has been for half an hour or so.
Happily for the rest of the world he then assumed this would work every time and allowed a far quicker defeat of Nazi Germany than if the professional army had run the defence. In general I think great men/women really can influence history, albeit against a broad sweep of general direction.
And, of course, your last sentence should have started "Because of".
Is @Dynamo
a) a Russian Troll
b) utterly stupid...
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1486818088016355336
Bring Back Boris Johnson (obvs)
He was more worried about one of the Ukrainian nuclear plants being targeted. Russia landed a precision missile just a few hundred metres from one of the nuclear plant reactors recently, which he thought was a clear warning of that possibility.
And at what cost?