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A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
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A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
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The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election
12.65*365= 4617 days
Days since the death of the Queen = 20
Financial crises during the reign of Charles III = 231
https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1575097926975913984
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1575101928140197888
They are buying bonds because prices were falling (and yields therefore rising). This matters because esp. pension funds hold a lot of long-dated government debt and the asset/liability mix was becoming very unhealthy.
It is the same behaviour, however, as quantitative easing - ie buying bonds which adds more cash to the economy which in turn is inflationary.
Although, stuck record as I am, I have to believe that people will at some point twig and not spend/increase the monetary base as they know what's coming down the line. Which is known as Ricardian Equivalence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardian_equivalence
those many senior Tories who surely knew well enough that the new leader would be calamitous but who slithered into the ranks of her supporters when it became clear she would win and who wanted a job.
For example, Nadhim Zahawi: “Liz understands that the status quo isn’t an option in times of crisis . . . [she] will overturn the stale economic orthodoxy and run our economy in a Conservative way” (Telegraph); Tom Tugendhat: “Liz’s plan for the economy is founded on true Conservative principles of low tax, a lean state and bold supply-side reform” (Times); Sajid Javid: “. . . a bold Conservative policy agenda that shows the public we are rising to the challenges of our times. Time served in government has not dulled Liz’s sharp focus and willingness to challenge the status quo” (Times); Penny Mordaunt: “[Truss is] the hope candidate . . . I’ve seen enough to know the person I’m going to put my faith in — and that is Liz Truss.” (Exeter hustings); Ben Wallace, who had the decency at least to sound sheepish, mostly listing the jobs Truss has done: “She’s very straight, she’s authentic, what you see is what you get [and] she’s actually incredibly experienced in government” (Sky News); and Brandon Lewis, who initially backed Zahawi: it was an “easy choice” subsequently to back Truss (Telegraph).
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824
Torsten Bell
@TorstenBell
The scale of the destruction it is bringing is hard to comprehend:
- higher import prices
- surging mortgage bills
- higher deficits risking big spending cuts to come
- pension funds taking big losses on forced asset sales
- likely lasting risk premiums for UK firms and govt
At least there was an argument for joining the ERM. And before you say it, Brexit wasnt actually the policy of the Prime Minister than made it happen.
I mean, it makes the most sense, but….
Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
“We have seen how the markets have reacted to our announcement. We are disappointed that this is the attitude that has been taken in response to our bold proposals. In the interest of market stability we will take the proposals off the table. It remains our aspiration to build a low tax economy and when the fiscal situation allows we will revisit this.”
It makes them a laughing stock and borks their credibility but it might just save them in the short to medium term and reverse some of the damage.
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
Short and caught...??
(I even kept them when Truss was announced leader, thinking there might be a bit of a bounce to trade them out. Now pinning hopes on the next Con leader and hoping that's before a GE, but they're looking dead parrot sick as bets)
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1575099471876460544
@MrHarryCole They are pretty much saying that to their voters too.
https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1575105120278151168
To those waiting with bated breath for that favourite media catchphrase, the 'U-turn', I have only one thing to say: 'You turn if you want to. The lady's not for turning!' I say that not only to you but to our friends overseas and also to those who are not our friends."
TheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,404
1:11PM
I’m never taking another holiday again.
So that's it - it's all TSE's fault!
A. completely ignorant of electoral behaviour in Scotland;
B. confident of total Tory collapse in England;
or C. confident of a Lib Dem landslide in southern England
It is very, very hard to reconcile that judgement with other prices, eg
- next FM Anas Sarwar 16/1
- LD Vote Share favourite band 10-15%
It feels like Putin is about to double down again, but if you go all in and still lose, then its a huge question as to what happens after that. No one yet seems ready to put a stop to the insanity in Russia (and of course the growing chaos in the UK and in the markets is giving the tyrant hope that he can still get a way with it).
It is only slow, but there is little doubt that the situation in Russia is seriously deteriorating.
https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049
And let's not forget that early, hasty tweet from the Polish ex-foreign minister, thanking America for doing this
Hmmmm
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575107154666610691
UK government: Sabotaged their own economy
Up until now the polls have not meant much; it was summer, two years out from a GE, people thinking of other things. Now we are into Party Conference Season and they become a bit more meaningful. A lead in excess of 10% becomes meaningful, and after the Kwasifuckup you guys might soon be looking nostalgically back on the time when the lead was that small.
You need to start work, now, on the reconstitution and repairing of what was once the natural Party of Government.
https://twitter.com/joelwgibbonsv/status/1574788485420048386
Somewhat cheering, assuming he’s right.
Was internally dubbed “Operation Rolling Thunder”, a Whitehall source involved told me, after the US bombing blitz in Vietnam.
But… after the mini-Budget fallout the tag is now not being used.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575108612321468417
That is going to take a long time to fix because the plan can't be pointed at anyone except the Government...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11246335/LIZ-TRUSS-long-politicians-fought-slice-economic-pie.html
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
2. If they were ever "caught", it would be a western government doing the catching, and - as we lurch towards all-out war with Russia - which western country is going to stir up a fight, right now, with Washington?
Russia will get the blame whoever did it, and I suspect the Americans did it, in full knowledge of that
Am wondering how long it will take for B of E and Treasury to concede defeat at the hands of the markets.
Looks like Operation Rolling Bollocks is winning.
I'm currently flat if she stays this year and ahead if she goes, so waiting for the odds to go down more before making any further moves.
I’m honestly beginning to think maybe you lot are right & I would do a better job 🤦🏻♀️
https://twitter.com/Liztruss/status/1575098230626721793
I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
Former high-flying Labour MPs EMMA REYNOLDS and PARMJIT DHANDA are among a strong field trying to be Labour candidate in WYCOMBE in Bucks, held by Brexit champion & NI minister Steve Baker. Wycombe hasn’t been Labour for 71 years.
"Checkpoint "Upper Lars" on the border with 🇬🇪 - 🗑🇷🇺 "refugees" in a mountain of garbage are waiting for their turn. They also report that they sell their cars for a penny, since they cannot be driven into 🇬🇪"
https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1575031756964900865?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng
I think they need to be driven from office now, but I hope they are able to rebuild in opposition because I need a centre-right alternative to the Labour Party (who I am currently lending my vote to).
My fear is that it will take them a very long time to do so - the current generation will need to exit the scene before they will get a look in, IMHO.
It’s a shame that the red wall generation who could be the up and coming future Tory leaders will likely now be swept away in the coming cataclysm.