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A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageA LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    crossover only 5 days ago
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    21% lmao, they are totally screwed. Existential crisis levels
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    21% lmao, they are totally screwed. Existential crisis levels

    thats chance of maj, not vote share.
  • ANGIE 4 PM!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    IshmaelZ said:

    21% lmao, they are totally screwed. Existential crisis levels

    thats chance of maj, not vote share.
    I know. I was scoffing at a 21% chance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    On current polls Labour would indeed win a majority. Though they should certainly at least win most seats in a hung parliament.

    The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 635
    NOM still rightly the favourite. Unless Labour can win back a dozen or so Scottish seats (how?), I can't see a LAB majority.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    Curious that the Tory chance has remained steady at around 21%. Odd that it hasn't tanked along with the pound.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    Moving towards my longstanding 40-40-20 view (Lab/NOM/Con).
  • I am not 100% sure what the BoE buying bonds means, but I suspect it is a very expensive can being kicked down the road.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Maybe it was the Queen holding everything together

    The Queen was still around in the 2008 crash, Black Wednesday and the inflation of the 1970s and high unemployment of the early 1980s
    Life expectancy at age 73 = 12.65 years
    12.65*365= 4617 days
    Days since the death of the Queen = 20

    Financial crises during the reign of Charles III = 231

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Pensions - another Indy fox shot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Keir Starmer has said that parliament should be recalled urgently after the Bank of England intervention.
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1575101928140197888
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695

    I am not 100% sure what the BoE buying bonds means, but I suspect it is a very expensive can being kicked down the road.

    And the can has dynamite in it.

    They are buying bonds because prices were falling (and yields therefore rising). This matters because esp. pension funds hold a lot of long-dated government debt and the asset/liability mix was becoming very unhealthy.

    It is the same behaviour, however, as quantitative easing - ie buying bonds which adds more cash to the economy which in turn is inflationary.

    Although, stuck record as I am, I have to believe that people will at some point twig and not spend/increase the monetary base as they know what's coming down the line. Which is known as Ricardian Equivalence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardian_equivalence
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited September 28
    Anyone listening to WATO? If this was done when we had a Royal Family worth the name Karteng would be in the Tower awaiting execution! When even Yannis Varoufakis thinks they've ballsed it up ('A rookie error') you know you're in a hole.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Thoughts and prayers with all those supposedly sensible Tory bigwigs who shoiuld have known better but decided to throw away their credibility by saying Liz Truss had the right plan for Britain. Off the top of my head: Sajid Javid, Tom Tugenhadt, Penny Mordaunt, Ben Wallace. Who among the non-loons am I missing?

    Matthew Parris has helpfully catalogued them in The Times today

    those many senior Tories who surely knew well enough that the new leader would be calamitous but who slithered into the ranks of her supporters when it became clear she would win and who wanted a job.

    For example, Nadhim Zahawi: “Liz understands that the status quo isn’t an option in times of crisis . . . [she] will overturn the stale economic orthodoxy and run our economy in a Conservative way” (Telegraph); Tom Tugendhat: “Liz’s plan for the economy is founded on true Conservative principles of low tax, a lean state and bold supply-side reform” (Times); Sajid Javid: “. . . a bold Conservative policy agenda that shows the public we are rising to the challenges of our times. Time served in government has not dulled Liz’s sharp focus and willingness to challenge the status quo” (Times); Penny Mordaunt: “[Truss is] the hope candidate . . . I’ve seen enough to know the person I’m going to put my faith in — and that is Liz Truss.” (Exeter hustings); Ben Wallace, who had the decency at least to sound sheepish, mostly listing the jobs Truss has done: “She’s very straight, she’s authentic, what you see is what you get [and] she’s actually incredibly experienced in government” (Sky News); and Brandon Lewis, who initially backed Zahawi: it was an “easy choice” subsequently to back Truss (Telegraph).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.”
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1575103012045193216

    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    The scale of the destruction it is bringing is hard to comprehend:
    - higher import prices
    - surging mortgage bills
    - higher deficits risking big spending cuts to come
    - pension funds taking big losses on forced asset sales
    - likely lasting risk premiums for UK firms and govt

    At least there was an argument for joining the ERM. And before you say it, Brexit wasnt actually the policy of the Prime Minister than made it happen.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502
    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer has said that parliament should be recalled urgently after the Bank of England intervention.
    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1575101928140197888

    Wow! That'll really sort things out. Well done Keir - exactly what we need!
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited September 28
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    Norway?

    I mean, it makes the most sense, but….

    Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    What other use does Russia have for it? There aren't any buyers at the other end.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    VDL was part of the government that stuck rigidly to Nord Stream and the strategy of dependence on Russian gas after the invasion of Crimea.
  • Thoughts and prayers with all those supposedly sensible Tory bigwigs who shoiuld have known better but decided to throw away their credibility by saying Liz Truss had the right plan for Britain. Off the top of my head: Sajid Javid, Tom Tugenhadt, Penny Mordaunt, Ben Wallace. Who among the non-loons am I missing?

    It's curious. Liz was just a slightly odd, almost anonymous character best known for some embarrassing photo ops. What she ever did or said that made people think she was PM material is completely beyond me. She didn't even really seem to cut it as an Major-esque compromise candidate. Strange.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    When Liz Truss said that she would be hitting the ground running from her first day in office, we probably should have asked from what height she was falling.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    Scott_xP said:

    Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.”
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824

    Perhaps Jake Rees will step into the fray as Chancellor?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    ping said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    Norway?

    I mean, it makes the most sense, but….

    Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
    Thing is, it looks to me like whoever did it would know there was a high chance they’d get found out.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Long gilt yields are now down 90bp.

    Short and caught...??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985

    I see one way out for Liz and Kwasi. It isn’t a pretty one. It might not even help the markets now the genie is out of the bottle, but it goes something like this.

    “We have seen how the markets have reacted to our announcement. We are disappointed that this is the attitude that has been taken in response to our bold proposals. In the interest of market stability we will take the proposals off the table. It remains our aspiration to build a low tax economy and when the fiscal situation allows we will revisit this.”

    It makes them a laughing stock and borks their credibility but it might just save them in the short to medium term and reverse some of the damage.

    I have the feeling that the genie is out of the bottle on this one, and such a statement wouldn't make any difference to sterling or the gilt market.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556

    Moving towards my longstanding 40-40-20 view (Lab/NOM/Con).

    I've got (small, old) bets on Con maj and Con most seats :cry:

    (I even kept them when Truss was announced leader, thinking there might be a bit of a bounce to trade them out. Now pinning hopes on the next Con leader and hoping that's before a GE, but they're looking dead parrot sick as bets)
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    It seems to have been royally and efficently fcuked and without instantly identifiable fingerprints, so possibly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Harmony latest. A senior Cabinet minister says any of their colleagues talking about letters or changing leader "do not deserve to be in power. They should defect and fuck off."
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1575099471876460544


    @MrHarryCole They are pretty much saying that to their voters too.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1575105120278151168
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    What other use does Russia have for it? There aren't any buyers at the other end.
    There would be buyers if Putin was overthrown and the Russian Army withdrew from Ukraine. Seems like this is Putin burning his boats to bind the rest of the Kremlin into his determination to fight this war to the bitter end.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,132
    TOPPING said:

    I am not 100% sure what the BoE buying bonds means, but I suspect it is a very expensive can being kicked down the road.

    And the can has dynamite in it.

    They are buying bonds because prices were falling (and yields therefore rising). This matters because esp. pension funds hold a lot of long-dated government debt and the asset/liability mix was becoming very unhealthy.

    It is the same behaviour, however, as quantitative easing - ie buying bonds which adds more cash to the economy which in turn is inflationary.

    Although, stuck record as I am, I have to believe that people will at some point twig and not spend/increase the monetary base as they know what's coming down the line. Which is known as Ricardian Equivalence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardian_equivalence
    The Bond Vigilante blog has a fairly detailed explainer on the pension / bond issue here: https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022/09/collateral-calls/
  • I see one way out for Liz and Kwasi. It isn’t a pretty one. It might not even help the markets now the genie is out of the bottle, but it goes something like this.

    “We have seen how the markets have reacted to our announcement. We are disappointed that this is the attitude that has been taken in response to our bold proposals. In the interest of market stability we will take the proposals off the table. It remains our aspiration to build a low tax economy and when the fiscal situation allows we will revisit this.”

    It makes them a laughing stock and borks their credibility but it might just save them in the short to medium term and reverse some of the damage.

    "I prefer to believe that certain lessons have been learned from experience, that we are coming, slowly, painfully, to an autumn of understanding. And I hope that it will be followed by a winter of common sense. If it is not, we shall not be diverted from our course.

    To those waiting with bated breath for that favourite media catchphrase, the 'U-turn', I have only one thing to say: 'You turn if you want to. The lady's not for turning!' I say that not only to you but to our friends overseas and also to those who are not our friends."
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    Thoughts and prayers with all those supposedly sensible Tory bigwigs who shoiuld have known better but decided to throw away their credibility by saying Liz Truss had the right plan for Britain. Off the top of my head: Sajid Javid, Tom Tugenhadt, Penny Mordaunt, Ben Wallace. Who among the non-loons am I missing?

    It's curious. Liz was just a slightly odd, almost anonymous character best known for some embarrassing photo ops. What she ever did or said that made people think she was PM material is completely beyond me. She didn't even really seem to cut it as an Major-esque compromise candidate. Strange.
    Indeed. Plenty of Labour members and supporters, and indeed ordinary voters thought Corbyn was PM material. So I suppose there's that?
  • FPT

    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,404
    1:11PM
    I’m never taking another holiday again.


    So that's it - it's all TSE's fault!
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?

    Yes please.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    edited September 28
    The Labour party conference is over. Truss now has absolutely no excuse not to speak about the crisis she created.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited September 28
    Punters betting on Lab Maj at that ridiculously short price are either:

    A. completely ignorant of electoral behaviour in Scotland;
    B. confident of total Tory collapse in England;
    or C. confident of a Lib Dem landslide in southern England

    It is very, very hard to reconcile that judgement with other prices, eg

    - next FM Anas Sarwar 16/1
    - LD Vote Share favourite band 10-15%
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    Several Western governments are now recommending that their citizens should leave Russia immediately. Both Estonia and Latvia are holding emergency exercises concerning the possibility of a border crisis as large numbers of Russians seek to flee the country. The borders are closed to most Russians in any event and are not likely to be reopened for quite a while.

    It feels like Putin is about to double down again, but if you go all in and still lose, then its a huge question as to what happens after that. No one yet seems ready to put a stop to the insanity in Russia (and of course the growing chaos in the UK and in the markets is giving the tyrant hope that he can still get a way with it).

    It is only slow, but there is little doubt that the situation in Russia is seriously deteriorating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    👀 Tory MP Simon Hoare publicly skewers Govt over ‘inept madness’ in handling of economy https://twitter.com/simon4ndorset/status/1575103341482627072
  • Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    Russia. Saves Gazprom a bunch of compensation. Shows America its threats against it were misplaced. Saves paying Ukraine, which is why Nord Stream 2 was built.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Scott_xP said:

    Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.”
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824

    Perhaps Jake Rees will step into the fray as Chancellor?
    Look at the wording of that comment. Do you seriously believe a senior tory MP would speak in those terms, or any terms, to some left wing muppet journalist at the Guardian?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697

    ANGIE 4 PM!

    I guess she has firmed up your support for Labour?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
    Well: Gazprom is the other big beneficiary. Right now, they're on the hook for around $20bn/month in damages for their failure to supply gas. In the event that Gazprom cannot supply gas because of an event outside their control (i.e. the destruction of a gas pipeline or two), then they can declare Force Majeure and walk away from the contract.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Tory MP Simon Hoare publicly skewers Govt over ‘inept madness’ in handling of economy https://twitter.com/simon4ndorset/status/1575103341482627072

    At last, a real live tory MP speaking against the government. Finally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Scoop by @_DavidGoodman @PhilAldrick — the BOE’s intervention today was done to stave off an imminent crash in the gilt market: https://twitter.com/bloomberguk/status/1575099827180150784
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,324
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
    Wildcard: the French have gone all Rainbow Warrior again. Can’t see the reason though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,695
    Phil said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am not 100% sure what the BoE buying bonds means, but I suspect it is a very expensive can being kicked down the road.

    And the can has dynamite in it.

    They are buying bonds because prices were falling (and yields therefore rising). This matters because esp. pension funds hold a lot of long-dated government debt and the asset/liability mix was becoming very unhealthy.

    It is the same behaviour, however, as quantitative easing - ie buying bonds which adds more cash to the economy which in turn is inflationary.

    Although, stuck record as I am, I have to believe that people will at some point twig and not spend/increase the monetary base as they know what's coming down the line. Which is known as Ricardian Equivalence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardian_equivalence
    The Bond Vigilante blog has a fairly detailed explainer on the pension / bond issue here: https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022/09/collateral-calls/
    Nice. Thanks for the link will take a look.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    VONC and GE is what is needed. Of course, that requires a lot of Tory MPs to do what is right for the country rather than themselves. In the long run they may benefit though, by being shown to have been on the right side of history.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?

    I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
  • MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.”
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824

    Perhaps Jake Rees will step into the fray as Chancellor?
    Look at the wording of that comment. Do you seriously believe a senior tory MP would speak in those terms, or any terms, to some left wing muppet journalist at the Guardian?

    Do you remember Boris Johnson's term ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Hmm sterling very bumpy at the moment, markets definitely pushing sterling down and an "unknown actor" likely attempting to hold it above $1.06, I don't see this as sustainable for very long which means the chancellor will need to present a plan which involved tax rises and spending cuts to fund the £45bn.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
    Well: Gazprom is the other big beneficiary. Right now, they're on the hook for around $20bn/month in damages for their failure to supply gas. In the event that Gazprom cannot supply gas because of an event outside their control (i.e. the destruction of a gas pipeline or two), then they can declare Force Majeure and walk away from the contract.
    Yes, I've seen that theory on Twitter. I don't buy it. There must be other ways for Gazprom to dodge this bill, other than by sabotaging Russia's main judo-hold on the West

    And let's not forget that early, hasty tweet from the Polish ex-foreign minister, thanking America for doing this

    Hmmmm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Scott_xP said:

    Harmony latest. A senior Cabinet minister says any of their colleagues talking about letters or changing leader "do not deserve to be in power. They should defect and fuck off."
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1575099471876460544


    @MrHarryCole They are pretty much saying that to their voters too.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1575105120278151168

    Soon to be ex-Senior Cabinet Minister, one way or another.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Probably worth taking bets now on how long it will be before the first (1) substantial U-turn (2) significant backbench revolt (3) government defeat in the Commons. I suspect Truss/Kwarteng may manage the hat trick before Halloween
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575107154666610691
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Russian government: Sabotaged their own pipeline

    UK government: Sabotaged their own economy
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 637
    ping said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    Norway?

    I mean, it makes the most sense, but….

    Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
    I can't see it being the US. The reputational damage if they were caught would be astronomical.
  • HYUFD said:

    On current polls Labour would indeed win a majority. Though they should certainly at least win most seats in a hung parliament.

    The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election

    The world has changed in the last week.

    Up until now the polls have not meant much; it was summer, two years out from a GE, people thinking of other things. Now we are into Party Conference Season and they become a bit more meaningful. A lead in excess of 10% becomes meaningful, and after the Kwasifuckup you guys might soon be looking nostalgically back on the time when the lead was that small.

    You need to start work, now, on the reconstitution and repairing of what was once the natural Party of Government.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,324
    Centre-left former PM Renzi says Meloni not a fascist:

    https://twitter.com/joelwgibbonsv/status/1574788485420048386

    Somewhat cheering, assuming he’s right.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556
    ohnotnow said:

    ping said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    Norway?

    I mean, it makes the most sense, but….

    Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
    I can't see it being the US. The reputational damage if they were caught would be astronomical.
    T'is Greta, innit? :wink:
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
    Could be right Leon
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Not 100% accurate but ..


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    For weeks Downing St has been planning a flurry of supply side reform announcements.

    Was internally dubbed “Operation Rolling Thunder”, a Whitehall source involved told me, after the US bombing blitz in Vietnam.

    But… after the mini-Budget fallout the tag is now not being used.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575108612321468417
  • Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
    Why tremendous mental strain? At this, her hour of triumph!
  • Cicero said:

    When Liz Truss said that she would be hitting the ground running from her first day in office, we probably should have asked from what height she was falling.

    Perhaps we should be blaming Boris for all this. He did well by giving a lot of get-go rhetoric but was clever enough not to actually do much to upset the applecart. Liz, in contrast, decided that genuine mania was a virtue.
  • What excuse will the government give for not recalling parliament tomorrow / Friday?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Anybody on here know Kwasi Kwarteng when he was younger? I’ve heard some very odd things about him, which I struggle to believe.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls Labour would indeed win a majority. Though they should certainly at least win most seats in a hung parliament.

    The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election

    The world has changed in the last week.

    Up until now the polls have not meant much; it was summer, two years out from a GE, people thinking of other things. Now we are into Party Conference Season and they become a bit more meaningful. A lead in excess of 10% becomes meaningful, and after the Kwasifuckup you guys might soon be looking nostalgically back on the time when the lead was that small.

    You need to start work, now, on the reconstitution and repairing of what was once the natural Party of Government.
    +1 - last Friday the newly appointed Chancellor blew up the Tory's reputation for financial competency..

    That is going to take a long time to fix because the plan can't be pointed at anyone except the Government...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    That's a lie. She sent a message to the Jewish community in the UK, condolences to the Japanese people over the funeral of Shinzo  Abe, and wrote an op-ed in defence of her plan to grow the economy:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11246335/LIZ-TRUSS-long-politicians-fought-slice-economic-pie.html
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
    More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697

    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
    Its a dungeon, not a bunker. Apparently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
    I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow

    The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?

    The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter

    Cui bono? The USA
    It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:

    "Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    ohnotnow said:

    ping said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    "GERMAN SECURITY AGENCIES FEAR BOTH STRANDS OF NORD STREAM 1 PIPELINE WILL BE UNUSABLE FOREVER - TAGESSPIEGEL CITING GOVT SOURCES"


    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1575085436862664704?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng



    Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle

    The US?
    Norway?

    I mean, it makes the most sense, but….

    Nah. It’s got to be either Russia or the US.
    I can't see it being the US. The reputational damage if they were caught would be astronomical.
    1. Quite unlikely to be caught

    2. If they were ever "caught", it would be a western government doing the catching, and - as we lurch towards all-out war with Russia - which western country is going to stir up a fight, right now, with Washington?

    Russia will get the blame whoever did it, and I suspect the Americans did it, in full knowledge of that
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
    Why tremendous mental strain? At this, her hour of triumph!
    Her hour of triumph lasted… an hour.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    Anybody on here know Kwasi Kwarteng when he was younger? I’ve heard some very odd things about him, which I struggle to believe.

    Was he a bit "superficial" as a youngster?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Probably worth taking bets now on how long it will be before the first (1) substantial U-turn (2) significant backbench revolt (3) government defeat in the Commons. I suspect Truss/Kwarteng may manage the hat trick before Halloween
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575107154666610691

    It doesn't matter whether she has been in a week or a decade. She should resign along with her daft Chancellor.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,177
    Scott_xP said:

    For weeks Downing St has been planning a flurry of supply side reform announcements.

    Was internally dubbed “Operation Rolling Thunder”, a Whitehall source involved told me, after the US bombing blitz in Vietnam.

    But… after the mini-Budget fallout the tag is now not being used.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575108612321468417

    "The Air Force simply could not effectively interdict North Vietnam's supply routes to the South. In Clausewitzian terms, Rolling Thunder failed because it was not an effective political instrument—it did not achieve its stated goal of compelling the North Vietnamese to do our will."

    Am wondering how long it will take for B of E and Treasury to concede defeat at the hands of the markets.

    Looks like Operation Rolling Bollocks is winning.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    Scott_xP said:

    For weeks Downing St has been planning a flurry of supply side reform announcements.

    Was internally dubbed “Operation Rolling Thunder”, a Whitehall source involved told me, after the US bombing blitz in Vietnam.

    But… after the mini-Budget fallout the tag is now not being used.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575108612321468417

    No doubt renamed “Operation Rolling Blunder”.
  • Anybody on here know Kwasi Kwarteng when he was younger? I’ve heard some very odd things about him, which I struggle to believe.

    Son of the PB manse did I believe?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    Truss layable at 12 on Betfair to go this year, backable at 12 (13 with boost, I think) on Ladbrokes.

    I'm currently flat if she stays this year and ahead if she goes, so waiting for the odds to go down more before making any further moves.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    For weeks Downing St has been planning a flurry of supply side reform announcements.

    Was internally dubbed “Operation Rolling Thunder”, a Whitehall source involved told me, after the US bombing blitz in Vietnam.

    But… after the mini-Budget fallout the tag is now not being used.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1575108612321468417

    No doubt renamed “Operation Rolling Blunder”.
    Barabarosa...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    @Liztruss
    I’m honestly beginning to think maybe you lot are right & I would do a better job 🤦🏻‍♀️


    https://twitter.com/Liztruss/status/1575098230626721793
  • If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?

    I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
    It may surprise you to learn this,MM, but I have promised to give a couple of days canvassing time to Tissue Price (alias Aaron Bell MP) at the next election. Why? He's not on my side of the divide, but he's a good bloke, intelligent, and a man of goodwill. He hasn't a hope in hell of holding on, but it doesn't matter. If voters supported men and women of that ilk our government and politics would be much better.

    I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1575108068547133440

    Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    Former high-flying Labour MPs EMMA REYNOLDS and PARMJIT DHANDA are among a strong field trying to be Labour candidate in WYCOMBE in Bucks, held by Brexit champion & NI minister Steve Baker. Wycombe hasn’t been Labour for 71 years.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Scott_xP said:

    The only comment Truss has made in the last 5 days is to congratulate a fascist on their election. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1575106207618306049

    Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
    Its a dungeon, not a bunker. Apparently.
    She wouldn’t be the first PM who needed “minders”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Enormous queue of Russians - mainly fighting age men - fleeing their country at the border with Georgia


    "Checkpoint "Upper Lars" on the border with 🇬🇪 - 🗑🇷🇺 "refugees" in a mountain of garbage are waiting for their turn. They also report that they sell their cars for a penny, since they cannot be driven into 🇬🇪"

    https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1575031756964900865?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,448
    I still find the pathway to majority for Labour difficult - the SNP hold onto Scotland so tightly I don't see them making gains there. Wales looks like it will be Con free under current polling, and Labour will gain those over anyone else. And I can imagine some Red Wall seats coming "back" to Labour. I just don't know if there are enough competitive seats in the home counties, south and rurally? Maybe the LDs do well enough to win seats / prevent the Tories winning them? Maybe this economic ruin is so bad Tories just won't vote?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited September 28

    HYUFD said:

    On current polls Labour would indeed win a majority. Though they should certainly at least win most seats in a hung parliament.

    The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election

    The world has changed in the last week.

    Up until now the polls have not meant much; it was summer, two years out from a GE, people thinking of other things. Now we are into Party Conference Season and they become a bit more meaningful. A lead in excess of 10% becomes meaningful, and after the Kwasifuckup you guys might soon be looking nostalgically back on the time when the lead was that small.

    You need to start work, now, on the reconstitution and repairing of what was once the natural Party of Government.
    I fear that recent times have caused more damage to the reputation of the Tory Party than was even suffered in the 1990s.

    I think they need to be driven from office now, but I hope they are able to rebuild in opposition because I need a centre-right alternative to the Labour Party (who I am currently lending my vote to).

    My fear is that it will take them a very long time to do so - the current generation will need to exit the scene before they will get a look in, IMHO.

    It’s a shame that the red wall generation who could be the up and coming future Tory leaders will likely now be swept away in the coming cataclysm.
This discussion has been closed.