Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.” https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824
Perhaps Jake Rees will step into the fray as Chancellor?
Look at the wording of that comment. Do you seriously believe a senior tory MP would speak in those terms, or any terms, to some left wing muppet journalist at the Guardian?
I can think of things, widely believed, that stretch credulity more. And I think it is more likely that it was said than that a decent journalist (which she is) made it up.
I am not aware of any level of disloyalty or betrayal that is beyond a politician speaking off the record or anonymously.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Maybe to prepare for the Queen’s funeral she watched Helen Mirren in “the Queen” and so thinks that hiding away from the people and then after a few days of rancour she can do a walk-about and enjoy 25 years of success is the way forward.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 4h A currency trader has just told me that a driver to sell sterling was not just the mini-budget but a concern that Labour could form the next Government…
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
Its a dungeon, not a bunker. Apparently.
She's a bit tied up at the moment so is unable to come to the phone...
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
Its a dungeon, not a bunker. Apparently.
She's a bit tied up at the moment so is unable to come to the phone...
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Like i said last night we are at March in the movie threads...provocations continue and there are no adults in the romm
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
Seems sensible to me as it prevents Germany getting gas directly from Russia. This ties Germany closer to the hawks - Poland and the US. It's a win for Ukraine.
On current polls Labour would indeed win a majority. Though they should certainly at least win most seats in a hung parliament.
The latest Yougov would give an even bigger swing to Labour than 1997 since the last general election
The world has changed in the last week.
Up until now the polls have not meant much; it was summer, two years out from a GE, people thinking of other things. Now we are into Party Conference Season and they become a bit more meaningful. A lead in excess of 10% becomes meaningful, and after the Kwasifuckup you guys might soon be looking nostalgically back on the time when the lead was that small.
You need to start work, now, on the reconstitution and repairing of what was once the natural Party of Government.
I fear that recent times have caused more damage to the reputation of the Tory Party than was even suffered in the 1990s.
I think they need to be driven from office now, but I hope they are able to rebuild in opposition because I need a centre-right alternative to the Labour Party (who I am currently lending my vote to).
My fear is that it will take them a very long time to do so - the current generation will need to exit the scene before they will get a look in, IMHO.
It’s a shame that the red wall generation who could be the up and coming future Tory leaders will likely now be swept away in the coming cataclysm.
Think a new party on the right may emerge...more nationalist and anti immigration
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Very possible. I always have a month or so worth of emergency supplies
If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?
I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
It may surprise you to learn this,MM, but I have promised to give a couple of days canvassing time to Tissue Price (alias Aaron Bell MP) at the next election. Why? He's not on my side of the divide, but he's a good bloke, intelligent, and a man of goodwill. He hasn't a hope in hell of holding on, but it doesn't matter. If voters supported men and women of that ilk our government and politics would be much better.
I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Craig Murray - @CraigMurrayOrg · 14h The Nordstream 2 pipeline allows Russia to send gas to Western Europe without paying transit fees to Ukraine and Poland. Russia just completed it in the teeth of massive opposition from Ukraine, Poland and USA. Now they are trying to convince you it was Russia who blew it up
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Former minister: “The problem is that even if she sacks Kwasi, there is no solution. I can’t think of what anyone could possibly do to calm things down. Her only option is a total overhaul of team and direction but she has alienated so many because of the reshuffle.” https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1575103357814861824
Perhaps Jake Rees will step into the fray as Chancellor?
Look at the wording of that comment. Do you seriously believe a senior tory MP would speak in those terms, or any terms, to some left wing muppet journalist at the Guardian?
I can think of things, widely believed, that stretch credulity more. And I think it is more likely that it was said than that a decent journalist (which she is) made it up.
I am not aware of any level of disloyalty or betrayal that is beyond a politician speaking off the record or anonymously.
It says "former minister", doesn't actually say it's a Tory...!
If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?
I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
It may surprise you to learn this,MM, but I have promised to give a couple of days canvassing time to Tissue Price (alias Aaron Bell MP) at the next election. Why? He's not on my side of the divide, but he's a good bloke, intelligent, and a man of goodwill. He hasn't a hope in hell of holding on, but it doesn't matter. If voters supported men and women of that ilk our government and politics would be much better.
I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
Hoping "liewise" is a typo!
Yes!! I didn't spot it until the time limit for edit had expired.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
Worst pm ever already...quite an achievement
I honestly could never imagine how Boris Johnson could possibly be worsted, but the modern Tory Party has a golden streak of mad genius. It's creative, inspired, counter-intuitive, even - an imaginative and creative triumph.
We will 20 point Labour lead within the next month.
Keir Starmer now looks like the PM more than Liz Truss does, he's played this very well and looks competent and boring. Get us back to that people will say.
This is end game for the Tories, let's have an election and they can regroup in opposition.
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
Seems sensible to me as it prevents Germany getting gas directly from Russia. This ties Germany closer to the hawks - Poland and the US. It's a win for Ukraine.
Overnight it dismantles about a decade of German energy policy. Hard to see the Russians doing that.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 4h A currency trader has just told me that a driver to sell sterling was not just the mini-budget but a concern that Labour could form the next Government…
Unlikely being as there doesn't need to be another election until January 2025.
Although the last time I heard this sort of narrative was circa 1996.
If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?
I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
It may surprise you to learn this,MM, but I have promised to give a couple of days canvassing time to Tissue Price (alias Aaron Bell MP) at the next election. Why? He's not on my side of the divide, but he's a good bloke, intelligent, and a man of goodwill. He hasn't a hope in hell of holding on, but it doesn't matter. If voters supported men and women of that ilk our government and politics would be much better.
I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
My MP is Rupa Huq. Likely to be voting LD … again.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
Worst pm ever already...quite an achievement
I honestly could never imagine how Boris Johnson could be worsted, but the Tories are geniuses. It's creative, inspired, counter-intuitive, even.
I don't think anyone's ever said that Liz is dishonest!
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Considering stocking up on food myself...seems silly but when people panic its too late...we are heading straight into ww3
It don't look good
“US statements about the possibility of Kyiv's strikes on the LPR and DPR bring them closer to a dangerous brink and make the United States a party to the conflict” - Russian Ambassador to Washington Antonov"
Moving towards my longstanding 40-40-20 view (Lab/NOM/Con).
I've got (small, old) bets on Con maj and Con most seats
(I even kept them when Truss was announced leader, thinking there might be a bit of a bounce to trade them out. Now pinning hopes on the next Con leader and hoping that's before a GE, but they're looking dead parrot sick as bets)
I've just backed Labour Minority government at 5/1. SKS has ruled out a coalition (yes I know he has to say that atm and it could turn out to be a lie) but I think he'd at least try to go it alone first and that should land me my bet. Labour would need to be in the 275-325 seat range to win. I think that is better than a 5/1 shot but DYOR.
I still find the pathway to majority for Labour difficult - the SNP hold onto Scotland so tightly I don't see them making gains there. Wales looks like it will be Con free under current polling, and Labour will gain those over anyone else. And I can imagine some Red Wall seats coming "back" to Labour. I just don't know if there are enough competitive seats in the home counties, south and rurally? Maybe the LDs do well enough to win seats / prevent the Tories winning them? Maybe this economic ruin is so bad Tories just won't vote?
The latest YouGov had fieldwork from Friday-Sunday and had only 47% of Tories sticking with them. How low would that go in a poll today?
Some of them will be convinced to vote for their local MP, or to stop Labour, but it's not looking great for the Tories at the moment.
We will 20 point Labour lead within the next month.
Keir Starmer now looks like the PM more than Liz Truss does, he's played this very well and looks competent and boring. Get us back to that people will say.
This is end game for the Tories, let's have an election and they can regroup in opposition.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
I suspect that she is well out of her depth and in a sea of total panic. She has also declared war on the civil service which won't help. She can only look to a few ideologues who she will find aren't much help in a situation like this.
If there were a general election tomorrow, which PBers would vote Tory?
I would likely still give a personal vote to my MP as he is very good. God alone knows how you campaign for the Conservative Party on the doorsteps though.
It may surprise you to learn this,MM, but I have promised to give a couple of days canvassing time to Tissue Price (alias Aaron Bell MP) at the next election. Why? He's not on my side of the divide, but he's a good bloke, intelligent, and a man of goodwill. He hasn't a hope in hell of holding on, but it doesn't matter. If voters supported men and women of that ilk our government and politics would be much better.
I urge you to do liewise with a local MP who is obviously a cut above most.
My MP is Rupa Huq. Likely to be voting LD … again.
Our local MP is Priti Patel! To be fair she's being very quiet.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Against that, the rise of LNG has increased the domestic US natural gas price, which is politically unpopular. It used to be the case that US gas was completely untethered from the global price, because the gas couldn't go anywhere. Now, it can be exported, and as more export terminals come on stream, the more the US price will simply become the world price.
Great for (Republican donating) US energy firms. Bad for US consumers.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
A couple of jars of lutefisk would mean you have your own WMDs for the post apocalyptic aftermath…
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Very possible. I always have a month or so worth of emergency supplies
The key is fresh water. Plenty of fresh water. And something substantial to board up all your windows.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
If Russia wanted to deter the West from retaliating to the annexations later this week, then demonstrating that they have the capability to destroy European gas pipelines would be one way to do that.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Third Pole, the fully merged electoral ticket between his Italia Viva and Carlo Calenda's Azione party started sniffing before the election about what they might do if Salvini blew up the centre-right coalition at some stage and Calenda, who seems a massive shopping trolley politician having gone, in pretty rapid order, from the near communistic left of PD to a Macronite giving home to Forza refugees, musing about stepping in (still under offering Draghi II, but I'm sure that will pass in time). This may be no more than an extension of that gambit.
My hope that Meloni might govern in a fairly normal way has been coloured by my respect for Fini and for the party of stability the old AN became at the end, plus Meloni's background both in that setup and the short lived Forza merger under the PdL banner.
But there's no doubt that her FdI took a more populist campaigning line since 2012, and that stuff is a big worry, especially the more bat crazy conspiracies and political hobbit stuff as I've read around more.
The understated line of Dutch PM Mark Rutte that Meloni gives "cause for concern" is about where I'm sitting at the moment.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
The timing is odd for America, if it was holding this back as a threat against Russia. Otoh, the US Navy was supposed to have anti-submarine helicopters around that might have spotted Russian saboteurs.
Hiding in her bunker after less than a month in office. She must be under tremendous mental strain. I genuinely hope she’s got a very good private support network. This kind of pressure would crack a lot of people.
More than anything else her complete and total absence should be setting off major alarm bells. It is probably making the situation worse.
Yes. I’m interested to hear her voice when she next emerges blinking into the daylight. A quiver? A falter? A hestitation? It won’t take much before folk write her political epitaph.
Worst pm ever already...quite an achievement
Especially given the very high bar set by her predecessor.
I still find the pathway to majority for Labour difficult - the SNP hold onto Scotland so tightly I don't see them making gains there. Wales looks like it will be Con free under current polling, and Labour will gain those over anyone else. And I can imagine some Red Wall seats coming "back" to Labour. I just don't know if there are enough competitive seats in the home counties, south and rurally? Maybe the LDs do well enough to win seats / prevent the Tories winning them? Maybe this economic ruin is so bad Tories just won't vote?
The latest YouGov had fieldwork from Friday-Sunday and had only 47% of Tories sticking with them. How low would that go in a poll today?
Some of them will be convinced to vote for their local MP, or to stop Labour, but it's not looking great for the Tories at the moment.
But campaigns always have a squeeze effect, and Tory voters are more likely to abstain than vote switch, from what I understand.
Starmer doesn't need to do anything, just quell the Corbynite loons, and his cunning plan is working well. They'll self-implode of their accord. Gizza job, I could do that.
I still find the pathway to majority for Labour difficult - the SNP hold onto Scotland so tightly I don't see them making gains there. Wales looks like it will be Con free under current polling, and Labour will gain those over anyone else. And I can imagine some Red Wall seats coming "back" to Labour. I just don't know if there are enough competitive seats in the home counties, south and rurally? Maybe the LDs do well enough to win seats / prevent the Tories winning them? Maybe this economic ruin is so bad Tories just won't vote?
I agree. To get a majority (326) they need to win 124 seats + every seat they won last time - 124+202.
In the top 124 target seats are 17 SNP seats, where they will struggle to impact. Plus there will be some losses to someone though maybe only a few. So for a majority you have to look down to target 145 or thereabouts. But several of those also are SNP so difficult. So look to target 153 and consider how likely it is that Labour will win Rochford and Southend East, which they may need to do to get 326 seats. Swing needed: 13.31%.
I still don't put that as a 32% chance. Though no-one can accuse the Tories of not trying to give Labour a thumping majority, but the valiant Tory effort may not be enough.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
In a couple of weeks I’ll be returning across the Atlantic; if they have to choose a time, I wouldn’t mind it being that week, in preference to any other…
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
Seems sensible to me as it prevents Germany getting gas directly from Russia. This ties Germany closer to the hawks - Poland and the US. It's a win for Ukraine.
Overnight it dismantles about a decade of German energy policy. Hard to see the Russians doing that.
A faction of German politics wanting to end the reliance on Russia?
The mistake in all this is assuming countries , political parties and governments are monoliths.
Even Putin runs a coalition - hence the last moment recasting of his announcement.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
It was clearly sabotage. Who are the Russians blaming? The only way it benefits them is as a causus belli against Nato countries. Do they really want to go there?
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
I take no pleasure in pointing out that I have been warning for weeks of the dangers of 'beating back Putin' in Ukraine.
This thing, about young men fleeing the country, is not great. Who is going to overthrow and replace the regime and build a better one?
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Europe will be destroyed, America will be crippled, Asia will be seriously destabilised (and probably also caught up in the coming world war)
So it's the southern hemisphere. Africa is already fucked, Oz is in the firing line via China, Polynesia is half French and will get zapped
Much of Latin America is largely uninhabitable due to poverty and chaos
Chile it is, because NZ is boring
Even in the event Putin was mad enough to launch a nuclear bomb in Ukraine it wouldn't lead to nuclear war with the West unless he attacked a NATO state, just isolation and even tighter sanctions. Though most likely we just see impasse in the Donbass
A big declaration by Putin is scheduled for Friday 30 September.
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
I'm going to assume that sabotaging Nord Stream 2 has plausible deniability - Russia can always be like "why would we wreck our own infrastructure / money making pipeline when we could always just turn it off it we want to"
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
Someone posted a map showing the points of explosion just inside international waters, showing someone was being careful: either Russia about Article 5, or someone else trying to give that implication.
Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
A couple of jars of lutefisk would mean you have your own WMDs for the post apocalyptic aftermath…
I think you’re confusing the mild (but weirdly slimy) Christmas ’lutfisk’ with the explosive stench of Norrland’s ’surströmming’, traditionally consumed in late August, when more southern Swedes are enjoying langoustines (on west coast) or crayfish (inland).
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Because that would have been outright attack on NATO.
Another theory on Twitter is that it is China wot dunnit. Crippling the west AND Russia
It's got to be the US. Permanently ends European reliance on Russian gas and makes a market for US LNG exports. If Ukraine win the war within the next 6 months then European LNG terminals won't be ready before sanctions on Russia so we go back to a situation of Germany relying on Russian energy. This is now looking impossible without NS1.
Yes, as I said my money is on the USA
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
I take no pleasure in pointing out that I have been warning for weeks of the dangers of 'beating back Putin' in Ukraine.
This thing, about young men fleeing the country, is not great. Who is going to overthrow and replace the regime and build a better one?
my fathers business supplier in asia has rung him in a panic today saying what is going on is crazy and there has to be negotiations....people in asia he says cant believe what is happening
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
How do you recovery politically when the mini budget is like the Death Star .
From now on in opposition parties can blame everything on that , even though it was common knowledge the BOE would be raising rates the public will just see the Death Star .
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
A couple of jars of lutefisk would mean you have your own WMDs for the post apocalyptic aftermath…
I think you’re confusing the mild (but weirdly slimy) Christmas ’lutfisk’ with the explosive stench of Norrland’s ’surströmming’, traditionally consumed in late August, when more southern Swedes are enjoying langoustines (on west coast) or crayfish (inland).
Who benefits from this? Is it really Russia? Quite the puzzle
VDL and Borrell making a statement at 4 on this apparaently
I feel like A Conspiratorial Loon but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the Yanks did this, not Jonny Moscow
The pipeline is a crucial choke-point for Putin, he can apply pressure, or allow gas deliveries, as he desires. If the pipeline is destroyed he loses all leverage - after the initial shock. How does he gain from that?
The destruction of the pipeline means that continental Europe, especially Germany, is more likely to stay loyal to NATO and the western/Ukrainian cause, because there is no longer any choice in the matter
Cui bono? The USA
It also looks like it is reinforcing what is being said in back channel discussions:
"Threatening to use nukes has lost you Nordstream 1 and 2. Use nukes - and every bit of your hydrocarbons kit will get the same treatment. Now, fuck off out of every bit of Ukraine, before we get really pissed off at you and some more of your playthings accidentally break....."
Seems sensible to me as it prevents Germany getting gas directly from Russia. This ties Germany closer to the hawks - Poland and the US. It's a win for Ukraine.
Overnight it dismantles about a decade of German energy policy. Hard to see the Russians doing that.
A faction of German politics wanting to end the reliance on Russia?
The mistake in all this is assuming countries , political parties and governments are monoliths.
Even Putin runs a coalition - hence the last moment recasting of his announcement.
An act of sabotage on this scale can really only have been done by a Government and the only two realistic candidates would be the USA (probably with NATO knowledge and consent) and Russia (who I doubt Russia would have the expertise.)
But what's the politics behind it. I just don't understand.
Labrov said from the start that they were unconerned about what the West thought. Only the domestic market mattered. However, their incompetence is showing without any effective opposition. If we discover who bombed the pipeline, it can only be the Russians. The fingerprints will be all over it, despite them claiming a big boy did it and ran away.
What's happening is horrendous. People's livelihoods, homes, aspirations are being flushed away by incompetent fools in this new Government.
We need a General Election.
How soon before we see a 20% Labour lead in the polls? I don't think we've seen one of those for 21 years.
Starmer is no Blair but Liz Truss is no John Major. Apart from Black Wednesday, the Conservatives actually bequeathed to Labour an economy in rude health.
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Putin doesn't have any choice but to escalate.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
To win Putin has to force the West to back down and cease providing Ukraine with ammunition. He has to scare us enough that we'd sacrifice Ukraine to save ourselves (in the short term).
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, but I suspect we’re about to see the world’s 3rd nuclear bomb attack.
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
So, to summarise, we're staring down the barrel of a currency crisis, collapsing pension funds, a house price crash, spiraling inflation and 4+ years of woke Labour government, and it's all because some idiot took a suitcase on a late night booze run. Fantastic.
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
War is coming, the world fx and bond markets are in serious strife, the fed is on operation crush everyone then flatten the US. Perfect storm. All can be solved by reversing the 45p tax rate removal and a Great British start up green energy company
That's why the IMF are likely to be eventually asked, as a result of BoE pressure on the government, and then internationally forced, by other countries to become more involved - for other counties' sake, too.
Comments
I am not aware of any level of disloyalty or betrayal that is beyond a politician speaking off the record or anonymously.
"All the Norwegian pipelines Russia could have hit but didn't:"
https://twitter.com/FortyTwice/status/1575110218799009793?s=20&t=bPEnGces3IOaSlIpt5Nsng
If Moscow was minded to blow up some gas pipelines, why not attack Norwegian pipes to western Europe? Thus increasing European energy hunger but keeping open the tantalising hope of energy from Russia?
I fear we are close to a terrible, terrible war
Lord Ashcroft
@LordAshcroft
·
4h
A currency trader has just told me that a driver to sell sterling was not just the mini-budget but a concern that Labour could form the next Government…
I just stocked up on conserved food. Dunno why. Can’t see strawberry jam, corned beef and tinned mackerel being much use in a nuclear winter, but it’s just human nature: you gotta do something.
Actually attacking someone else's pipeline to Europe would be an open act of war.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/us-embassy-russia-warns-americans-leave/index.html
https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1575078802748645377?s=46&t=ZRwlWO1cf9_mq7mCD8rf1A&fbclid=IwAR2D9T0F-H6pSba39Of3s1c_s0fPgYmXDwEr0_Y8rBQw3GMjAQ6tmKq1RJk
Craig Murray -
@CraigMurrayOrg
·
14h
The Nordstream 2 pipeline allows Russia to send gas to Western Europe without paying transit fees to Ukraine and Poland.
Russia just completed it in the teeth of massive opposition from Ukraine, Poland and USA.
Now they are trying to convince you it was Russia who blew it up
One Tory MP tells me: “It’s extinction level stuff. This is like 2008 but worse. We’re messing with the very fundamental principle of providing a home for your family. That’s why it’s different: it’s real stuff”.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1575112976272850944
https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1575103012045193216
Keir Starmer now looks like the PM more than Liz Truss does, he's played this very well and looks competent and boring. Get us back to that people will say.
This is end game for the Tories, let's have an election and they can regroup in opposition.
Due to long term fixes, existing US mortagees will be ok… but new buyers are a bit screwed.
From 1% to 7% in less than a year.
Although the last time I heard this sort of narrative was circa 1996.
“US statements about the possibility of Kyiv's strikes on the LPR and DPR bring them closer to a dangerous brink and make the United States a party to the conflict” - Russian Ambassador to Washington Antonov"
https://twitter.com/01_fjodor/status/1575095948467765249?s=20&t=kNQUBWIUWwNY0-KuvgbZ0g
Some of them will be convinced to vote for their local MP, or to stop Labour, but it's not looking great for the Tories at the moment.
The other guy is some random genius who is probably a Central Office shill, by the nature of his posts.
But the Russians will know this, and they will escalate in return. We are really fucking close to a catastrophe
Sweden?
England?
Montenegro?
somewhere else?
To start with @Morris_Dancer would have put giant, sentient, mutant Halibut in charge of actually running the economy/LHC.
Genetically modified monster fish have never caused economic collapse or a Black Hole to form at CERN….
Still not voting for her!
Great for (Republican donating) US energy firms. Bad for US consumers.
And something substantial to board up all your windows.
Not according to this, although no definition of long term and short term is given.
Chile would be my go-to place. The winelands
Europe will be destroyed, America will be crippled, Asia will be seriously destabilised (and probably also caught up in the coming world war)
So it's the southern hemisphere. Africa is already fucked, Oz is in the firing line via China, Polynesia is half French and will get zapped
Much of Latin America is largely uninhabitable due to poverty and chaos
Chile it is, because NZ is boring
Third Pole, the fully merged electoral ticket between his Italia Viva and Carlo Calenda's Azione party started sniffing before the election about what they might do if Salvini blew up the centre-right coalition at some stage and Calenda, who seems a massive shopping trolley politician having gone, in pretty rapid order, from the near communistic left of PD to a Macronite giving home to Forza refugees, musing about stepping in (still under offering Draghi II, but I'm sure that will pass in time). This may be no more than an extension of that gambit.
My hope that Meloni might govern in a fairly normal way has been coloured by my respect for Fini and for the party of stability the old AN became at the end, plus Meloni's background both in that setup and the short lived Forza merger under the PdL banner.
But there's no doubt that her FdI took a more populist campaigning line since 2012, and that stuff is a big worry, especially the more bat crazy conspiracies and political hobbit stuff as I've read around more.
The understated line of Dutch PM Mark Rutte that Meloni gives "cause for concern" is about where I'm sitting at the moment.
But his forces are not in a good way right now, and if NATO comes into the war then they will look even worse.
But, who knows - events, dear boy, events...
In the top 124 target seats are 17 SNP seats, where they will struggle to impact. Plus there will be some losses to someone though maybe only a few. So for a majority you have to look down to target 145 or thereabouts. But several of those also are SNP so difficult. So look to target 153 and consider how likely it is that Labour will win Rochford and Southend East, which they may need to do to get 326 seats. Swing needed: 13.31%.
I still don't put that as a 32% chance. Though no-one can accuse the Tories of not trying to give Labour a thumping majority, but the valiant Tory effort may not be enough.
The mistake in all this is assuming countries , political parties and governments are monoliths.
Even Putin runs a coalition - hence the last moment recasting of his announcement.
https://twitter.com/Redpeter99/status/1575116639384879104
FWIW - 10% of new mortgages are adjustable rate.
This thing, about young men fleeing the country, is not great. Who is going to overthrow and replace the regime and build a better one?
https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1575114500927533061
Russia is signalling that all they want is the five territories (by far the largest part of what they still need to take is in the DPR) and nukes kept out of rump Ukraine. Of course if NATO countries supply weapons that are used to attack Russian territory that changes the game. Those locations say nothing about who did it.
"always just turn it off it we want to"
The pipelines were already switched off. Or to be more exact, Nordstream 1 was off and Nordstream 2 hadn't come onstream yet.
The Portovaya compressor plant near Vyborg was also sabotaged last month.
My money is on the latter as she looked good doing the Royal Funeral, and she might shore up a bit of support in the Red Wall
The Tories surely know they are finished; it is damage limitation now
Of course all this is fairly irrelevant if Eurasia is plunged into a wider war, which now looks horribly plausible
Oh no name. What a surprise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surströmming
"Harrowing message from the US Embassy in Moscow:
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1575035910105743360?s=20&t=kNQUBWIUWwNY0-KuvgbZ0g
From now on in opposition parties can blame everything on that , even though it was common knowledge the BOE would be raising rates the public will just see the Death Star .
We were perilously close to a failed auction.
At any price.
But what's the politics behind it. I just don't understand.
We need a General Election.
How soon before we see a 20% Labour lead in the polls? I don't think we've seen one of those for 21 years.
Starmer is no Blair but Liz Truss is no John Major. Apart from Black Wednesday, the Conservatives actually bequeathed to Labour an economy in rude health.
If we call his bluff then a defeat at the hands of NATO is more survivable, as less humiliating, than being defeated by Ukraine alone.
So I think he has to force the conflict to a point of crisis where the West has to choose between direct conflict with Russia, or sacrificing Ukraine.
Now, how to relocate the entire family to the tip of South America… in a week… ?!?
All can be solved by reversing the 45p tax rate removal and a Great British start up green energy company
That's why the IMF are likely to be eventually asked, as a result of BoE pressure on the government, and then internationally forced, by other countries to become more involved - for other counties' sake, too.