For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.
Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?
Its great. Labour fall foul of the IMF: Look how crap Labour are! They're a disgrace! Tories fall foul of the IMF: They're remainer socalists. They're a disgrace!
The IMF are involved because Sterling is a Big Deal. A Global reserve currency. So if the UK government does obviously stupid and trashes it, the impacts are felt far beyond the UK.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
That's usually a huge factor in why you should prep for the worst.
I took out my mortgage in 2000 which was eight years after Black Wednesday, it still had a big impact on my thinking.
I think, underneath the polling, is a rather simple economic explanation for the tory and labour fortunes.
House price rises.
The tories built a coalition of those who benefitted from them and hoped to benefit from them. They’ve reached the inevitable end of the road.
The tories are now jettisoning the mortgaged homeowner part of their voter coalition. I’d love to see polling broken down by %ltv.
Fuck knows who Truss thought her ‘24 electoral coalition was going to be made up of. There simply aren’t enough pensioners and outright owners to keep her in government.
As far as I can tell pensioners are clutching to what the Mail says and the prospect of higher interest on their savings. They're not listening to the panic of their children on being able to pay their mortgages; they've been mollycuddled and insulated for too long.
They will get negative real rates on their savings, a real terms reduction in their pension payments, a collapse in their property values and their children and heir young families angrily beating a path back to their doors. But are too gone to see it.
If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become. https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.
The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.
That's absolutely none of their business.
I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
Except they didn't make that argument. They just said, "furthermore, this is likely to increase inequality."
There was absolutely no need for that 'furthermore'. It was a postscript to signal their views on the policy.
Their opinion on that is entirely irrelevant and it's not their place to give it.
It made me want to bomb the HQ of the IMF. Like, literally
It’s time to use our military. Putin is showing the way. Fuck all this polite diplomacy bollocks. Where does it get us?!
A brief but forceful raid on Washington. Teach them a lesson. We are a nuclear power
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
She's also a supporter of the Great Replacement Theory, essentially but subtly blaming Jewish Financiers, and a supporter of Victor Orban. The two go together.
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
She's also a supporter of the Great Replacement Theory, essentially but subtly blaming Jewish Financiers, and a supporter of Victor Orban. The two go together.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
Contact queuing on the Kazakh border for the second day says that locals have a business where they get two cars in the queue and then let people cut in between them. Selling spots for $500 and can do as many as they want. "So you get why I've been here two days," he says. https://mobile.twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574736530371153924
I've heard rumours that one medium-sized tech company (which it might be best not to name) who made their Russian staff redundant earlier in the year, has re-employed them and given them 'urgent' tasks outside Russia. It is a company that has done a large amount of trade with the Russian government in the past.
Hope the ploy works. "I'm travelling on business" is much more likely to get you out than "I want to go on holiday."
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
She's also a supporter of the Great Replacement Theory, essentially but subtly blaming Jewish Financiers, and a supporter of Victor Orban. The two go together.
I suspect she will crash and burn. It is possible to incite a crowd that way, but they actually expect some sort of delivery from a politician.
Simple solutions to complex problems and blaming foreigners are a pretty good formula to get elected, but not a very effective way of governing.
Will it be a VONC or will the end come much quicker when the finance bill cannot be passed? A First Lord is finished if a finance bill cannot be passed.
Will it be a VONC or will the end come much quicker when the finance bill cannot be passed? A First Lord is finished if a finance bill cannot be passed.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
And we haven't even started focusing on business loans for the tens of thousands of SMEs and hospitality businesses.
iirc Truss is 'jokingly' known as the human hand grenade in Whitehall. And that was before suicide bombing the economy.
Two more years of this shitshow and then we are all done.
Meloni is one of those weirdos indoctrinated at "Hobbit Camps" which cemented the link between Tolkien and Third Position Italian Fascism. Let's hope for the appearance of Communist Nazguls.
10% is no bad thing. I still find it hard to believe how much they went up during COVID. Maybe households were reapportioning leisure and commuting spend into increased mortgage payments so they bid more on properties. Hope they took a 5 year fix.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
A lot of people don't have a choice, because otherwise they can't buy a property. If you live in the south east and sat out the last 12 years because you could not afford to service a mortgage at potentially 12% interest, life would have just passed you by; you would never have never built up any assets. And rents in that time also doubled in some areas. It would be the difference now between being rich and poor. People were essentially being forced to gamble.
The problem was doing their numbers based on the cheapest possible rate. I chose to pay more when I fixed to get 7 years not 2. And debated paying even more to get 10 years.
There is a reason why the banks ask you to do all those mortgage affordability tests. It’s not because they like paperwork
Will it be a VONC or will the end come much quicker when the finance bill cannot be passed? A First Lord is finished if a finance bill cannot be passed.
Clarke under Major lost a budget vote on VAT fuel increases. Embarrassing but just allowed them to quietly u-turn.
This seems the most likely path for us to follow, the government can even still aspire to do the same cuts in April or when finances allow.
Much more likely than a new PM, Chancellor, or us riding successfully through the market crisis, or the Chancellor u-turning voluntarily. As for those who think we can cut public spending enough to get back to safety, ha.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
We'd be facing rapidly rising rates whoever was in government. Truss's budget might have accelerated the process, but the direction would have been the same even if Starmer had somehow replaced Boris.
If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become. https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.
The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.
That's absolutely none of their business.
I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
Except they didn't make that argument. They just said, "furthermore, this is likely to increase inequality."
There was absolutely no need for that 'furthermore'. It was a postscript to signal their views on the policy.
Their opinion on that is entirely irrelevant and it's not their place to give it.
It made me want to bomb the HQ of the IMF. Like, literally
It’s time to use our military. Putin is showing the way. Fuck all this polite diplomacy bollocks. Where does it get us?!
A brief but forceful raid on Washington. Teach them a lesson. We are a nuclear power
Are you travelling and therefore in a country where it is six o'clock now?
Will it be a VONC or will the end come much quicker when the finance bill cannot be passed? A First Lord is finished if a finance bill cannot be passed.
When is the vote?
MPs on holidays til 11 Oct so they can see their party chums for a series of parties. They have been sitting 8 days since 21 July, 2 of which exclusively for tributes to the Queen. Good job we have had a quiet year with nothing much to do.
If a foreign player, how does that work out when factoring the depreciation of Sterling?
I'd have thought most PL players are paid through a series of tax avoiding companies anyway.
Football players fall so far inside an employee relationship that they are definitely paid PAYE.
The get out clause for some of money was a separate payment for "image rights" but I would have to read up on a few tax tribunals to tell you how allowed that is nowadays (my instinct isn't thats very restricted nowadays)
The fact is, as I mentioned below, that the IMF are getting involved because the UK gilt crisis is spilling over into other developed market gilts, not because of inequality. That's what several analysts are saying, like the one quoted below.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
And we haven't even started focusing on business loans for the tens of thousands of SMEs and hospitality businesses.
iirc Truss is 'jokingly' known as the human hand grenade in Whitehall. And that was before suicide bombing the economy.
Two more years of this shitshow and then we are all done.
This won't last two months. What she is doing is political suicide for the party and financial suicide for the country. They're now attacking the IMF as "socialist" - with literally the whole world saying "this is stupid", even Tory MPs with tiny brain will notice that this is a Bad Thing. Especially as the angry letters flood in from constituents about energy bills and mortgages and local businesses collapsing.
Conference week next week will be amazing to see on the television the few thousand fools that have inflicted this pain on the rest of us. I hope we get lots of Vox pops on why they thought Truss was the one to pick.
You'd be wrong to think everyone there is on board though. I've known several people go to various party conferences, and near universally it was either a sense of obligation or so they could moan about the party direction.
This won't last two months. What she is doing is political suicide for the party and financial suicide for the country. They're now attacking the IMF as "socialist" - with literally the whole world saying "this is stupid", even Tory MPs with tiny brain will notice that this is a Bad Thing. Especially as the angry letters flood in from constituents about energy bills and mortgages and local businesses collapsing.
Truss said she would do unpopular things.
The more unpopular this becomes, the better she likes it...
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
Perhaps this will be the last we ever hear from the neoliberal shock therapists?
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
I believe Leon was one of those who supported the cut in development aid to the continent. He likes the anti immigration rhetoric, but not the most effective and humane solution.
How long before Truss finds herself fighting a two front war against both a “we never wanted you, we wanted Rishi/Penny” faction and a “Bring Back Boris” faction. Notional large majority could evaporate fast. And “PM unable to rally own MPs in a crisis” is a bad look indeed.
The answer, it seems, is less than a month. The new PM has managed to blow up in the polls, crash the economy and reopen the divides in her own feuding party before she even speaks at her first conference. https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1566410058921119752
Still less than a year since we were being told Boris Johnson was an all powerful Giant Toad squatting in the centre ground of British politics , who looked set to reign for a decade or more
Absolutely nothing in that bollocks article supports your assertion
I can't actually read below the paywall section to see, but I doubt the Times would be entirely making it up.
They don't really back it up. If the below accusation constitutes belief in conspiracy theories, then the Danish government got there before Meloni:
Marta Bonafoni, a centre-left member of the Lazio regional council, which covers the region around Rome, said that members from Meloni’s party now frequently decried “ethnic substitution” in the region.
“When we propose rules on council houses, they insert amendments to exclude migrants, citing the danger of ethnic substitution,” she said.
If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become. https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.
The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.
That's absolutely none of their business.
I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
Except they didn't make that argument. They just said, "furthermore, this is likely to increase inequality."
There was absolutely no need for that 'furthermore'. It was a postscript to signal their views on the policy.
Their opinion on that is entirely irrelevant and it's not their place to give it.
I actually kind of agree with this. At least as reported it sounded like a separate point. Whilst I dont like inequality it sounded like even if the plans had been thought to increase growth and add up etc, they'd still have criticised on an ideological basis.
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
We'd be facing rapidly rising rates whoever was in government. Truss's budget might have accelerated the process, but the direction would have been the same even if Starmer had somehow replaced Boris.
You have singularly failed to see the political point. As one of the few remaining "the World Bank must be socialists" loons I can understand why.
Interest rates had to go up. We all know that. But going up by a lot more on top because lunatics have taken over government will not work politically. The special fiscal operation is widely seen as unfair. It gets the direct blame for mortgages going up - ALL he blame if you look at yesterday's Daily Mail. And we still have the rest of the inflationary cost of living bomb, energy bills, services crumbling away etc etc.
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
She's also a supporter of the Great Replacement Theory, essentially but subtly blaming Jewish Financiers, and a supporter of Victor Orban. The two go together.
For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.
Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?
Its great. Labour fall foul of the IMF: Look how crap Labour are! They're a disgrace! Tories fall foul of the IMF: They're remainer socalists. They're a disgrace!
The IMF are involved because Sterling is a Big Deal. A Global reserve currency. So if the UK government does obviously stupid and trashes it, the impacts are felt far beyond the UK.
It's entirely reasonable to take issue with the IMF statement on its merits, but arguing it's not their business is pathetic.
Devastating piece from AEP this morning on Truss and Kwarteng:
"A week ago I wrote that the UK does not face a fundamental fiscal crisis. In the intervening days the Truss team has managed to conjure such a crisis by unforced policy error."
"Is the Government aware that serious analysts are talking about capital controls, or a flexible credit line from the International Monetary Fund?"
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
We'd be facing rapidly rising rates whoever was in government. Truss's budget might have accelerated the process, but the direction would have been the same even if Starmer had somehow replaced Boris.
You have singularly failed to see the political point. As one of the few remaining "the World Bank must be socialists" loons I can understand why.
Interest rates had to go up. We all know that. But going up by a lot more on top because lunatics have taken over government will not work politically. The special fiscal operation is widely seen as unfair. It gets the direct blame for mortgages going up - ALL he blame if you look at yesterday's Daily Mail. And we still have the rest of the inflationary cost of living bomb, energy bills, services crumbling away etc etc.
Do you want a government that does everything it can to get good headlines the next day, or a government that takes hard decisions that put us in a better position in the years and decades to come?
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
I believe Leon was one of those who supported the cut in development aid to the continent. He likes the anti immigration rhetoric, but not the most effective and humane solution.
I agree with the sentiment, but "fixing Africa" and halting climate change as a solution to the channel crossings isn't going to pass a a cost-benefit analysis.
Absolutely nothing in that bollocks article supports your assertion
I can't actually read below the paywall section to see, but I doubt the Times would be entirely making it up.
An early contender for “I am a total loser” comment-of-the-day
An early contender for one of Leon's "I instantly turn to abuse when in a corner" posts of the day.
You need to watch that tendency.
You were politely asked for a citation. To evidence your assertion you therefore linked to an article WHICH YOU HAVEN’T ACTUALLY READ. Because you are either too poor, or too mean, to pay a Times subscription. You just “hoped” the article supported what you said
When it comes to defining “loser”, you are exemplary. People will cite you in years to come
Absolutely nothing in that bollocks article supports your assertion
I can't actually read below the paywall section to see, but I doubt the Times would be entirely making it up.
An early contender for “I am a total loser” comment-of-the-day
An early contender for one of Leon's "I instantly turn to abuse when in a corner" posts of the day.
You need to watch that tendency.
You were politely asked for a citation. To evidence your assertion you therefore linked to an article WHICH YOU HAVEN’T ACTUALLY READ. Because you are either too poor, or too mean, to pay a Times subscription. You just “hoped” the article supported what you said
When it comes to defining “loser”, you are exemplary. People will cite you in years to come
Not strictly true - the headline at least supports the assertion.
For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.
Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?
Its great. Labour fall foul of the IMF: Look how crap Labour are! They're a disgrace! Tories fall foul of the IMF: They're remainer socalists. They're a disgrace!
The IMF are involved because Sterling is a Big Deal. A Global reserve currency. So if the UK government does obviously stupid and trashes it, the impacts are felt far beyond the UK.
It's entirely reasonable to take issue with the IMF statement on its merits, but arguing it's not their business is pathetic.
They won't always be right and they will always be people who get influenced by their own experiences and by eternal factors.
But - Sterling is a globally held reserve currency. Our decision to cliff it affects so many countries who aren't ourselves. Whilst "others" shouldn't be a controlling factor in our behaviour, we can't ignore them.
Because we need them and they need us. The world is interconnected, finance markets doubly so. We can't say "fuck finance" whilst trying to refinance 9 figures of debt. Rather upsets the people who actually need to buy our debt.
If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become. https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.
The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.
That's absolutely none of their business.
I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
Except they didn't make that argument. They just said, "furthermore, this is likely to increase inequality."
There was absolutely no need for that 'furthermore'. It was a postscript to signal their views on the policy.
Their opinion on that is entirely irrelevant and it's not their place to give it.
It made me want to bomb the HQ of the IMF. Like, literally
It’s time to use our military. Putin is showing the way. Fuck all this polite diplomacy bollocks. Where does it get us?!
A brief but forceful raid on Washington. Teach them a lesson. We are a nuclear power
"the project of ethnic substitution of European citizens, desired by big capital and international speculators", as facilitated by Italian liberals in the EU."
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
We'd be facing rapidly rising rates whoever was in government. Truss's budget might have accelerated the process, but the direction would have been the same even if Starmer had somehow replaced Boris.
You have singularly failed to see the political point. As one of the few remaining "the World Bank must be socialists" loons I can understand why.
Interest rates had to go up. We all know that. But going up by a lot more on top because lunatics have taken over government will not work politically. The special fiscal operation is widely seen as unfair. It gets the direct blame for mortgages going up - ALL he blame if you look at yesterday's Daily Mail. And we still have the rest of the inflationary cost of living bomb, energy bills, services crumbling away etc etc.
Do you want a government that does everything it can to get good headlines the next day, or a government that takes hard decisions that put us in a better position in the years and decades to come?
I did mention you were a loon. You are basically saying that global finance is wrong and you are right. Which is almost Bartean in its deluded arrogance.
Devastating piece from AEP this morning on Truss and Kwarteng:
"A week ago I wrote that the UK does not face a fundamental fiscal crisis. In the intervening days the Truss team has managed to conjure such a crisis by unforced policy error."
"Is the Government aware that serious analysts are talking about capital controls, or a flexible credit line from the International Monetary Fund?"
If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become. https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
Politically that doesn't work. As @murali_s points out this isn't external factors, this is a bondage queen and her wazzock Chancellor deciding to do something stupid to the economy to benefit their mates.
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories: 1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe 2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look 3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
We'd be facing rapidly rising rates whoever was in government. Truss's budget might have accelerated the process, but the direction would have been the same even if Starmer had somehow replaced Boris.
You have singularly failed to see the political point. As one of the few remaining "the World Bank must be socialists" loons I can understand why.
Interest rates had to go up. We all know that. But going up by a lot more on top because lunatics have taken over government will not work politically. The special fiscal operation is widely seen as unfair. It gets the direct blame for mortgages going up - ALL he blame if you look at yesterday's Daily Mail. And we still have the rest of the inflationary cost of living bomb, energy bills, services crumbling away etc etc.
Do you want a government that does everything it can to get good headlines the next day, or a government that takes hard decisions that put us in a better position in the years and decades to come?
I did mention you were a loon. You are basically saying that global finance is wrong and you are right. Which is almost Bartean in its deluded arrogance.
How do you take that from my post? Am I saying the exchange rate is wrong or that bond yields should be lower? No, I am not.
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
I believe Leon was one of those who supported the cut in development aid to the continent. He likes the anti immigration rhetoric, but not the most effective and humane solution.
Having had a fair amount of contact with the Aid industry on my visits to Malawi, I think that there are very valid criticisms of how it functions.
Far better are initiatives in the long term are initiatives to promote healthy economic growth there, such as the Everything But Arms agreement:
Truss stuffed her Cabinet with loyal believers; how loyal will they be once they realise they’re driving hard at a brick wall? Backbenchers meanwhile full of big beasts who absolutely do not believe; how organised can they get, how fast? Big questions ahead https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1575022509615099906
For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.
Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?
Its great. Labour fall foul of the IMF: Look how crap Labour are! They're a disgrace! Tories fall foul of the IMF: They're remainer socalists. They're a disgrace!
The IMF are involved because Sterling is a Big Deal. A Global reserve currency. So if the UK government does obviously stupid and trashes it, the impacts are felt far beyond the UK.
It's entirely reasonable to take issue with the IMF statement on its merits, but arguing it's not their business is pathetic.
They won't always be right and they will always be people who get influenced by their own experiences and by eternal factors.
But - Sterling is a globally held reserve currency. Our decision to cliff it affects so many countries who aren't ourselves. Whilst "others" shouldn't be a controlling factor in our behaviour, we can't ignore them.
Because we need them and they need us. The world is interconnected, finance markets doubly so. We can't say "fuck finance" whilst trying to refinance 9 figures of debt. Rather upsets the people who actually need to buy our debt.
I can see that holding Sterling as a currency reserve hasn't been a great decision this last week.
Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
Let’s wait and see, shall we?
She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly
I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.
I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.
* she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
I believe Leon was one of those who supported the cut in development aid to the continent. He likes the anti immigration rhetoric, but not the most effective and humane solution.
I agree with the sentiment, but "fixing Africa" and halting climate change as a solution to the channel crossings isn't going to pass a a cost-benefit analysis.
If you followed what logic there was in Meloni's little rant, then supporting economic development in Africa was her implied solution to the Mediterranean crossings problem. Clearly that's a long term project, but it does make a lot of sense for Europe to back it.
As far as the immediate migration issue is concerned, I agree that it's just whataboutery.
“[Meloni] has also bemoaned the chronically low birthrate in Italy and spoken of a left-wing government plot to “finance the invasion to replace Italians with immigrants,” a main tenet of the “great replacement,” a conspiracy theory that accuses shadowy global elites of the wholesale importing of nonwhite migrants to majority white countries.”
Absolutely nothing in that bollocks article supports your assertion
I can't actually read below the paywall section to see, but I doubt the Times would be entirely making it up.
An early contender for “I am a total loser” comment-of-the-day
An early contender for one of Leon's "I instantly turn to abuse when in a corner" posts of the day.
You need to watch that tendency.
You were politely asked for a citation. To evidence your assertion you therefore linked to an article WHICH YOU HAVEN’T ACTUALLY READ. Because you are either too poor, or too mean, to pay a Times subscription. You just “hoped” the article supported what you said
When it comes to defining “loser”, you are exemplary. People will cite you in years to come
More ad hominem nonsense. You really let yourself down with this sort of thing, because at other times you can be a very subtle poster. It's almost incongruous.
The issue seems to me to be that it is unclear what the overall strategy is and how it all fits together. Seeking to stimulate growth is not in itself a bad thing. How it is done and how the spending is to be paid for is what is unclear.
It's as if the government has read out half a Budget speech and left the rest at home. We will get that at some point one hopes. In the meanwhile everyone from traders down fills in the gaps and the government has lost control of the narrative.
It might have been wiser to have had an emergency statement about energy support and then a proper Budget with all the measures and assumptions later, with proper preparation. Now the government has lost control and will be seen to be reacting to events, whatever it does.
A bit more preparation would have helped. It all feels rushed and unprepared and ill-thought through. Arrogance or inexperience? Or a bit of both?
I would just point out that if house prices fall and interest rates go up, that does help those like my children who are saving for a deposit. On the other hand mortgage rates going up is not great.
My sense is that the international money markets are not woke, lefty Remainers who hate Britain and just don’t get it. My guess is that they are not in any way influenced by what the IMF says about inequality. My belief is that they are reacting to actions taken by the sovereign UK government over a period of time, which cumulatively they feel will do a lot more harm than good. It’s now up to the UK government and the governor of the Bank of England it appointed - or hitherto unforseen events, dear boy - to change their minds. That’s how these things work.
This twitter thread gives a number of examples of Meloni espousing the Great Replacement.
I am surprised @Leon is offended, as he has made similar claims himself.
If “the Great Replacement Theory” is just the idea that Big Business likes cheap immigrant labour, then of course it is true. You doubt it?
That isn't the GRT though. It is the idea that this is not being done for simple capitalist reasons, but rather being done deliberately to undermine white Christian populations and culture by Jewish financiers like Soros. See too "Cultural Marxism"
The two are all part of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, updated for the 21st Century edition.
Absolutely nothing in that bollocks article supports your assertion
I can't actually read below the paywall section to see, but I doubt the Times would be entirely making it up.
They don't really back it up. If the below accusation constitutes belief in conspiracy theories, then the Danish government got there before Meloni:
Marta Bonafoni, a centre-left member of the Lazio regional council, which covers the region around Rome, said that members from Meloni’s party now frequently decried “ethnic substitution” in the region.
“When we propose rules on council houses, they insert amendments to exclude migrants, citing the danger of ethnic substitution,” she said.
How is that different to Wales or Cornwall decrying second homers?
Remember Truss congratulated Meloni on her win, but can't say if Macron is a friend
That's rather overblown. I'm pretty confident she will have officially congratulated Macron on his election win too. If that doesnt show her to be his friend you cannot infer anything from her congratulating Meloni.
People are losing their shit over a boilerplate diplomatic message.
Comments
Labour fall foul of the IMF: Look how crap Labour are! They're a disgrace!
Tories fall foul of the IMF: They're remainer socalists. They're a disgrace!
The IMF are involved because Sterling is a Big Deal. A Global reserve currency. So if the UK government does obviously stupid and trashes it, the impacts are felt far beyond the UK.
They will get negative real rates on their savings, a real terms reduction in their pension payments, a collapse in their property values and their children and heir young families angrily beating a path back to their doors. But are too gone to see it.
It’s time to use our military. Putin is showing the way. Fuck all this polite diplomacy bollocks. Where does it get us?!
A brief but forceful raid on Washington. Teach them a lesson. We are a nuclear power
Money isn’t free - QE has depressed rates for way too long with all sorts of consequences for the economy and society
High mortgage rates will kill the Tories:
1. People will lose their homes. Which rather dampens their "everyone should buy a home" vibe
2. Bankers will continue to make a fortune from this misery. A bad look
3. Tories can't help sneering and belittling. If you lost your home its your own fault for buying it. Etc.
Perhaps all the nice middle class people facing the loss of their homes are also remoaner / socialist? Other than well off giffers and hedge-fund managers, is there any group of voter the Tories actually want to keep?
Hope the ploy works. "I'm travelling on business" is much more likely to get you out than "I want to go on holiday."
“The election of Italy’s fascist-adjacent Giorgia Meloni is a public reminder that women can be just as awful as men
I wouldn’t vote for her if I were on fire, but I’m in nauseated awe of what it must take for a woman to succeed among hard-right conservatives”
NAUSEATED AWE. Hahahaha
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/the-election-of-italys-fascist-adjacent-giorgia-meloni-is-a-public-reminder-that-women-can-be-just-as-awful-as-men
Simple solutions to complex problems and blaming foreigners are a pretty good formula to get elected, but not a very effective way of governing.
iirc Truss is 'jokingly' known as the human hand grenade in Whitehall. And that was before suicide bombing the economy.
Two more years of this shitshow and then we are all done.
"One great thing about the Death Star is the number of Brits employed at senior management levels."
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-formula-1-calendar-to-feature-six-sprint-events-from-2023-onwards.6JpUPQeXnDnmYEzvlcySXk.html
I loathe that bullshit.
There is a reason why the banks ask you to do all those mortgage affordability tests. It’s not because they like paperwork
This seems the most likely path for us to follow, the government can even still aspire to do the same cuts in April or when finances allow.
Much more likely than a new PM, Chancellor, or us riding successfully through the market crisis, or the Chancellor u-turning voluntarily. As for those who think we can cut public spending enough to get back to safety, ha.
The get out clause for some of money was a separate payment for "image rights" but I would have to read up on a few tax tribunals to tell you how allowed that is nowadays (my instinct isn't thats very restricted nowadays)
I knew I should have noted it down.
You need to watch that tendency.
I thought Truss had forbidden a recession...
The more unpopular this becomes, the better she likes it...
He likes the anti immigration rhetoric, but not the most effective and humane solution.
The answer, it seems, is less than a month. The new PM has managed to blow up in the polls, crash the economy and reopen the divides in her own feuding party before she even speaks at her first conference. https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1566410058921119752
Still less than a year since we were being told Boris Johnson was an all powerful Giant Toad squatting in the centre ground of British politics , who looked set to reign for a decade or more
Marta Bonafoni, a centre-left member of the Lazio regional council, which covers the region around Rome, said that members from Meloni’s party now frequently decried “ethnic substitution” in the region.
“When we propose rules on council houses, they insert amendments to exclude migrants, citing the danger of ethnic substitution,” she said.
This twitter thread gives a number of examples of Meloni espousing the Great Replacement.
I am surprised @Leon is offended, as he has made similar claims himself.
If a sufficient number of Tory MPs are revolting she’ll be gone.
Interest rates had to go up. We all know that. But going up by a lot more on top because lunatics have taken over government will not work politically. The special fiscal operation is widely seen as unfair. It gets the direct blame for mortgages going up - ALL he blame if you look at yesterday's Daily Mail. And we still have the rest of the inflationary cost of living bomb, energy bills, services crumbling away etc etc.
(See Foxy beat me to it).
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/09/conservatives-lost-fantasy-world-danger-country
"A week ago I wrote that the UK does not face a fundamental fiscal crisis. In the intervening days the Truss team has managed to conjure such a crisis by unforced policy error."
"Is the Government aware that serious analysts are talking about capital controls, or a flexible credit line from the International Monetary Fund?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/27/liz-truss-must-choose-fiscal-u-turn-housing-crash/
In fairness, you never really hide your admiration for the fascists so at that level you remain true to your beliefs.
When it comes to defining “loser”, you are exemplary. People will cite you in years to come
But - Sterling is a globally held reserve currency. Our decision to cliff it affects so many countries who aren't ourselves. Whilst "others" shouldn't be a controlling factor in our behaviour, we can't ignore them.
Because we need them and they need us. The world is interconnected, finance markets doubly so. We can't say "fuck finance" whilst trying to refinance 9 figures of debt. Rather upsets the people who actually need to buy our debt.
https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1552247068093288448
"the project of ethnic substitution of European citizens, desired by big capital and international speculators", as facilitated by Italian liberals in the EU."
"Attacks "emissaries" of Soros, "the financier giving global support and finance to mass immigration and the plan for ethnic substitution". (Fd'I social media called him a "usurer") https://wired.it/attualita/politica/2019/03/26/usuraio-soros-circonciso-vocabolario-antisemita-politica-italiana/)"
Or do they just plagiarise each other
Far better are initiatives in the long term are initiatives to promote healthy economic growth there, such as the Everything But Arms agreement:
https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/everything-arms-eba
“We could have the perfect storm. I’ve been there and smelt it and I don’t want to see it again. He has a great deal of explaining to do.”
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1575023133975015426
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1575022509615099906
-2%
The FTSE 100 used to rise when sterling fell. Not any more.
It's pretty obvious what she means, I would say, because she's just copying Orban, who uses Soros to scapegoat everything.
Clearly that's a long term project, but it does make a lot of sense for Europe to back it.
As far as the immediate migration issue is concerned, I agree that it's just whataboutery.
“[Meloni] has also bemoaned the chronically low birthrate in Italy and spoken of a left-wing government plot to “finance the invasion to replace Italians with immigrants,” a main tenet of the “great replacement,” a conspiracy theory that accuses shadowy global elites of the wholesale importing of nonwhite migrants to majority white countries.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna49366
It's as if the government has read out half a Budget speech and left the rest at home. We will get that at some point one hopes. In the meanwhile everyone from traders down fills in the gaps and the government has lost control of the narrative.
It might have been wiser to have had an emergency statement about energy support and then a proper Budget with all the measures and assumptions later, with proper preparation. Now the government has lost control and will be seen to be reacting to events, whatever it does.
A bit more preparation would have helped. It all feels rushed and unprepared and ill-thought through. Arrogance or inexperience? Or a bit of both?
I would just point out that if house prices fall and interest rates go up, that does help those like my children who are saving for a deposit. On the other hand mortgage rates going up is not great.
The two are all part of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, updated for the 21st Century edition.
People are losing their shit over a boilerplate diplomatic message.
From @DanielJHannan: No, the pound isn’t crashing over a trifling batch of tax cuts. It’s because the markets are terrified of @Keir_Starmer. https://bit.ly/3LLXv0R