What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Markets aren't wholly rational, and the UK depends on the kindness of strangers. The £2B signalled that the Gov't wasn't serious about debt reduction in the future as that sort of tax break won't yield barely any growth.
Which still doesn't make any sense at all, as it wasn't even a Budget.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The cut is not the issue. The issue is that the cut is seen as a pointless giveaway that will not make a positive economic impact, so what it communicates to the markets is that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing & has retreated into conservative shibboleths rather than actually engage with the difficult work of fixing the UK economy & sorting out our debt situation.
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The straw which breaks the camel back.
Basically saying the HMG don't care about costing or balancing budgets, and they you can 'do what you like' if it increases growth (which it didn't do).
I'm told by a city source it's hard to overstate how serious the situation is today. There is concern over the health of pension funds and this is why the Bank of England has acted...
This is a self inflicted financial crisis by the Truss government. Quite something
This, to me, is about the same level as when the BoE had to step in in 2007 to provide banks with emergency liquidity because the market had simply broken and banks weren't sure which of them would be bankrupt in the morning so stopped lending to each other.
That was a crisis 10 years in the making, this one has appeared in a week.
It has appeared in a week - it's been in the making for longer than 10 years arguably.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
It's not irrational, it was the chancellor going on air and suggesting this tax cut would drive growth upwards. That is the ultimate cause of the meltdown, the markets looked at that statement and wondered if he had a few screws loose, and everything since then has made it worse. The weekend round of media where they briefed out the next statement would have more tax cuts and more borrowing completely destroyed any semblance that the UK was ready to pay its own way.
The UK has to run on a set of fairly tight fiscal rules, current budget should be balanced over the medium term and the government should be spending 2.5-3% of GDP on investment per year. These dickheads are pushing the current budget out to an 8% deficit and proposing to increase investment to 4% with no concrete numbers from a respected institution showing these permanent measures will result in any significant growth to bring those numbers back down.
The additional rate tax cut is totemic for what the new government stands - fantasy economics.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Markets aren't wholly rational, and the UK depends on the kindness of strangers. The £2B signalled that the Gov't wasn't serious about debt reduction in the future as that sort of tax break won't yield barely any growth.
Which still doesn't make any sense at all, as it wasn't even a Budget.
I see Dan Hannan has revealed himself to be the Giuliani of Brexit. WTF?
"The Market reaction to Kamikwasi is actually a reaction to the prospect of Starmer as PM?" Either he believes that, in which case he is a partisan cretin, or he does not believe that, but says it because he thinks that we will believe it, in which case he is he is a lying partisan cretin with no moral compass.
Given the tosh he spouted about the single market, "absolutely no one is talking about leaving the single market", then my money is on the more sinister interpretation. In any event I see no reason why taxpayers should be funding him as advisor to the Board of trade. It is clearly not his field of expertise, and we have enough bullshitters in the cabinet already.
They certainly ought not to be doing so if he's actively briefing against the leader of the opposition.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The cut is not the issue. The issue is that the cut is seen as a pointless giveaway that will not make a positive economic impact, so what it communicates to the markets is that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing & has retreated into conservative shibboleths rather than actually engage with the difficult work of fixing the UK economy & sorting out our debt situation.
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
But the amount of the "giveaway" (actually, a "take less away") is negligible so it can't be expected to make a significant economic impact either way - it's a political decision reversing Gordon Brown's last-minute vindictiveness on his way out of the door.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
This, to me, is about the same level as when the BoE had to step in in 2007 to provide banks with emergency liquidity because the market had simply broken and banks weren't sure which of them would be bankrupt in the morning so stopped lending to each other.
That was a crisis 10 years in the making, this one has appeared in a week.
It has appeared in a week - it's been in the making for longer than 10 years arguably.
Most countries live on the never never and the markets are happy about that because the lie works for them.
Last week Kwasi (accidently / without thinking) made the lie so obvious that the market had to react to it so we have a BIG problem until someone creates a new position that the markets can accept as plausible...
Best case BoE using reserves to provide support has bought the government a couple of days to reverse the fiscal event. People now making free money betting against the government very like black Thursday. Paging Graham Brady?
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Markets aren't wholly rational, and the UK depends on the kindness of strangers. The £2B signalled that the Gov't wasn't serious about debt reduction in the future as that sort of tax break won't yield barely any growth.
Which still doesn't make any sense at all, as it wasn't even a Budget.
But it had a £45bn worth of new borrowing, more than most actual budgets. If this was presented in a proper budget with everything that comes with - an OBR forecast, spending cuts, other tax rises - the markets would have shrugged and moved on, they didn't and now it's precipitated a sovereign debt crisis and run on the currency.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
Then what is? The only other things that were announced last week were the reversal of tax rises that most people agreed were wrong when they were initially announced.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575073150064545797 Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky · 2m I'm told: - Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital - Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts - Some pension funds losing large amounts of their fund - Hence BoE stepped in - They are worried about systemic risk and without move today some pension funds could have gone under (they still might) - There’s a global bond tour going on "so probably the worst time in recent history to make unfunded pledges" says a source
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Yes I think I'm in the same boat. I also sort of wonder whether people might be overreacting just a teeny bit on here (not to yield to anyone in my convictions that Tories are bad at managing the economy)... Like Bank of England stabilizing the economy sounds... not ideal that it is necessary, but good that they can do it?
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
1. We are brilliant. Our plan is flawless and resplendent (giffers in hall applaud) 2. Britain is now unchained. Only remoaners and woke lefties are complaining 3. Redistribution is un-British. Which is why our economic plan gives the most benefit to those most in need - us 4. "One day the lie will collapse and the truth will triumph once again. At that moment, we will stand above everybody, pure and immaculate."
I will give bonus kudos points to anyone who can tell me what the pop culture quote is in point 4...
I see Dan Hannan has revealed himself to be the Giuliani of Brexit. WTF?
"The Market reaction to Kamikwasi is actually a reaction to the prospect of Starmer as PM?" Either he believes that, in which case he is a partisan cretin, or he does not believe that, but says it because he thinks that we will believe it, in which case he is he is a lying partisan cretin with no moral compass.
Given the tosh he spouted about the single market, "absolutely no one is talking about leaving the single market", then my money is on the more sinister interpretation. In any event I see no reason why taxpayers should be funding him as advisor to the Board of trade. It is clearly not his field of expertise, and we have enough bullshitters in the cabinet already.
He's excelled himself there. As befitting someone rightfully regarded as one of that rare breed - a Brexit intellectual.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The cut is not the issue. The issue is that the cut is seen as a pointless giveaway that will not make a positive economic impact, so what it communicates to the markets is that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing & has retreated into conservative shibboleths rather than actually engage with the difficult work of fixing the UK economy & sorting out our debt situation.
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
But the amount of the "giveaway" (actually, a "take less away") is negligible so it can't be expected to make a significant economic impact either way - it's a political decision reversing Gordon Brown's last-minute vindictiveness on his way out of the door.
A tax that wasn't reversed by Osborne, Hammond, Javid or Sunak. A tax that noone was asking to be cut.
I mean he could have cut it and introduced a land tax/windfall tax/raise inheritance tax to raise the appropriate lost revenue/signal to markets he was serious about the economy. But he didn't do any of that.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
Then what is? The only other things that were announced last week were the reversal of tax rises that most people agreed were wrong when they were initially announced.
Prospective borrowing
The pure silliness of the tax cut; its triviality is what makes it so serious. As if he had announced a 1% VAT rise on nuts, except pistachios.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
Then what is? The only other things that were announced last week were the reversal of tax rises that most people agreed were wrong when they were initially announced.
Who knows? The world economy is tanking, we went against the collective in how to get out of it. They crushed us. On to the next victim.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The cut is not the issue. The issue is that the cut is seen as a pointless giveaway that will not make a positive economic impact, so what it communicates to the markets is that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing & has retreated into conservative shibboleths rather than actually engage with the difficult work of fixing the UK economy & sorting out our debt situation.
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
But the amount of the "giveaway" (actually, a "take less away") is negligible so it can't be expected to make a significant economic impact either way - it's a political decision reversing Gordon Brown's last-minute vindictiveness on his way out of the door.
A tax that wasn't reversed by Osborne, Hammond, Javid or Sunak. A tax that noone was asking to be cut.
I mean he could have cut it and introduced a land tax/windfall tax/raise inheritance tax to raise the appropriate lost revenue/signal to markets he was serious about the economy. But he didn't do any of that.
Twas a tax for his mates
Because there was zero economic justification for it - while changing things at £100,000 made economic sense...
Speaking of Radio 5, Starmer was on just after that and he was absolutely hopeless at answering some very basic questions from Rachel Burden* about his energy policy and spending plans that he had only announced the day before.
Starmer couldn't answer the question about the number of turbines, or about planning rules, or about the likelihood of meeting the 2030 target date, for net-zero domestic electricity generation. He couldn't answer questions about taxation rises or the effect on the national debt resulting from all the spending commitments he had made. All he could say was "we'll do better".
How on Earth can you announce something one day, and yet not have absorbed even the most basic details of the plans? If you worked for a business and gave a presentation about new projects and expenditure you would be expected to offer at least some ball-park numbers, not shrug your shoulders and waffle on about how great it will all be.
Here's a clue for any Labour MPs going on the Radio 5 breakfast show, do some research so that you don't look like an idiot.
* Traditionally it's Rachel Reeves who ends up looking a wally when she can't answer some easy-peasy questions from Rachel Burden.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Markets aren't wholly rational, and the UK depends on the kindness of strangers. The £2B signalled that the Gov't wasn't serious about debt reduction in the future as that sort of tax break yields barely any growth.
It's the not publishing the OBR forecasts that really broke the confidence. How much more clearly can you say that you're being budgetarily irresponsible but by not publishing the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts?
It's hard not to think that they intended to create this reaction. Articles of Impeachment should be drawn up. A Bill of Attainder. It's either criminal intent or criminal negligence.
This isn't an exchange rate issue - it's a price of gilts issue ...
Interest rates rise so gilt prices fall That impacts the capital the pension fund has - a gilt worth £100 yesterday is worth £90 today Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts
Gilts are now worth £85, (pensions capital is worth even less) and the loop continues
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I honestly don't know. This is such a huge fuck up, having the central bank essentially tell them they're a bunch of dickheads and have pushed the UK economy to the brink of crisis is pretty terrible.
BOE buying gilts indemnified by the government via gilt issuance because the market has lost faith in gilts, while the currency is in free fall, mortgage lending has shut down, inflation at 10%... We are heading for potentially the worst economic crisis in the UK in my lifetime.
In your lifetime? Surely it's a lot worse than that. When has it been worse?
I'm told by a city source it's hard to overstate how serious the situation is today. There is concern over the health of pension funds and this is why the Bank of England has acted...
This is a self inflicted financial crisis by the Truss government. Quite something
I find this a little hard to believe. The rise in gilt rates over the last week has been huge. This significantly reduces the capital that pension funds need to meet their liabilities to their members because they need to buy fewer gilts to meet the pension payments. Most pension funds of any size will also have reasonable investments in the US in particular and they are getting the upside of sterling weakness in that their assets their are getting a boost.
Of course, the rise in gilt rates, mortgage rates and the imported inflation of a fall in sterling are all bad things for the domestic economy so there are lots and lots of good reasons to be worried but pension funds are unlikely to be on the list.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I honestly don't know. This is such a huge fuck up, having the central bank essentially tell them they're a bunch of dickheads and have pushed the UK economy to the brink of crisis is pretty terrible.
BOE buying gilts indemnified by the government via gilt issuance because the market has lost faith in gilts, while the currency is in free fall, mortgage lending has shut down, inflation at 10%... We are heading for potentially the worst economic crisis in the UK in my lifetime.
Ordinarily when a fucking great financial crisis hits, everyone agrees "this is a great financial crisis". And then action can be taken.
Not this time. The ideologues running the government (and their remaining few PB Parrots) insist they are right, everyone is wrong and we just need to "stay the course". Truss didn't even want to put out a statement yesterday. And today its forced the BofE into an emergency buy of gilts to stop the collapse of pension funds.
Yes still these wazzocks insist they are right and the collected global financial market is wrong. Better still, the likes of the IMF must be leftist remoaners - because so much energy has been spent saying *everything* is the fault of leftist remoaners.
Again again, our currency is fiat. Scrip. A confidence note. So you have to retain the confidence of the market - the people who price and trade and buy your currency - or you are fucked. Instead of saying "yeah ok this isn't working, lets shore up the pound" we get idiots like BR saying "great, lets get it to $0.20"
It is the splat of rhetoric, of idiocy, of the whole post-trust alt-fact stupidity of modern politics going splat against the wall of reality. The correct price of any product is what someone is willing to pay for it.
And no matter how hard the zealots insist its marvellous and the best in the world and we're all so clever and you're so stupid, the price isn't set by us. And even as this reality crashes around them, the wazzocks keep doubling down. "It's Kier Starmer's fault" would be funny if our pension funds hadn't faced collapse this morning...
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
This, to me, is about the same level as when the BoE had to step in in 2007 to provide banks with emergency liquidity because the market had simply broken and banks weren't sure which of them would be bankrupt in the morning so stopped lending to each other.
That was a crisis 10 years in the making, this one has appeared in a week.
It has appeared in a week - it's been in the making for longer than 10 years arguably.
Most countries live on the never never and the markets are happy about that because the lie works for them.
Last week Kwasi (accidently / without thinking) made the lie so obvious that the market had to react to it so we have a BIG problem until someone creates a new position that the markets can accept as plausible...
So the the government should essentially do everything to avoid drawing attention to itself lest anyone start looking too hard at the numbers?
I can see why the financial markets are worried. Someone might start looking under the carpet to see what else is under there.
It turns out that the people who did not understand the Single Market, Freedom of Movement and the Customs Union do not understand the UK economy either. Whoever would have thought it?
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
Then what is? The only other things that were announced last week were the reversal of tax rises that most people agreed were wrong when they were initially announced.
Who knows? The world economy is tanking, we went against the collective in how to get out of it. They crushed us. On to the next victim.
I just discovered something called a "mortgage prisoner" today. My work has been so focused on renters and benefit claimants in the past, it's a bit of a shock doing poverty analysis on non-claiming mortgage holders.
Back of envelope doesn't look good. There are definitely some tipping points on interest rates which dump disproportionate numbers of households into the red/poverty.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I honestly don't know. This is such a huge fuck up, having the central bank essentially tell them they're a bunch of dickheads and have pushed the UK economy to the brink of crisis is pretty terrible.
BOE buying gilts indemnified by the government via gilt issuance because the market has lost faith in gilts, while the currency is in free fall, mortgage lending has shut down, inflation at 10%... We are heading for potentially the worst economic crisis in the UK in my lifetime.
In your lifetime? Surely it's a lot worse than that. When has it been worse?
2008 to 2011 for starters.
A low sterling to dollar rate is actually good for the UK tourist industry and exporters to the US, even if bad for UK importers and tourists to the US.
After the 2008 crash unemployment reached 8% in the UK, it is now 4%. Unemployment reached 12% in the UK in 1984.
In the mid 1970s inflation was also even higher than now
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I doubt more than a dozen people will go...!
Hopefully many will go and demand change at the top (again)
Nah. The worst trait of the Conservative Party is "stick with the leader, through thick or thin" They are people who would buy a car, call out the RAC four times in the first fortnight, but still be determined it was a great buy and they were going to drive it for 200,000 miles.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
They should have stamped on this 'its the 45p tax cut' bullshit right at the start. It might be a twatty policy but it is not responsible for what is happening.
The market - the thing that is the problem - says it is responsible.
So, who might be right here? The market - the thing taking the action and saying "its the 45p rate" Or you?
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone · 51s BANK OF ENGLAND: BANK WILL CARRY OUT TEMPORARY PURCHASES OF LONG-DATED UK GOVERNMENT BONDS FROM 28 SEPTEMBER
————
QEEEEEEEEENFINITY!!!!
Can somebody with pointy shoes, tight strides and "product" in their hair explain what the fuck this means?
It means the gilt market has been broken by the morons in Downing Street. Gilts weren't selling at any price. Defined benefit pension schemes were heading for bankruptcy. Total market dysfunction. It is absolutely over for this government. GE this year.
You can get good odds on a GE this year. Feels extremely unlikely to me. Even if tory mps want rid of Truss - why on earth would they want a general election now?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575073150064545797 Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky · 2m I'm told: - Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital - Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts - Some pension funds losing large amounts of their fund - Hence BoE stepped in - They are worried about systemic risk and without move today some pension funds could have gone under (they still might) - There’s a global bond tour going on "so probably the worst time in recent history to make unfunded pledges" says a source
Fuuuuuuck. Its October 2008 redux. Except this time we're not risking the survival of shitbox investment banks, we're risking our pensions.
The UK has become the number one stupid place to invest. And still wazzocks say the market is wrong and they/Truss are right.
This only ends one way. The market will beat you into bloody submission.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
£45bn? You're counting the reversal of the NI rise that everyone at the time hated? How can it be terrible to increase a tax and then terrible to cancel that increase? Utter irrationality.
Is the issue here just one of trust? Like, most market stuff is made up, and people moving money around just no longer understand why the UK Gov is doing what it is doing, so even if individually the policy announced doesn't look too extreme, it is an indicator of uncertainty to come, and the market just hates that uncertainty?
Because like many here, I don't really understand why there has been such a big reaction to what is essentially trickle down economics funded on debt, something the GOP do all the time.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I honestly don't know. This is such a huge fuck up, having the central bank essentially tell them they're a bunch of dickheads and have pushed the UK economy to the brink of crisis is pretty terrible.
BOE buying gilts indemnified by the government via gilt issuance because the market has lost faith in gilts, while the currency is in free fall, mortgage lending has shut down, inflation at 10%... We are heading for potentially the worst economic crisis in the UK in my lifetime.
In your lifetime? Surely it's a lot worse than that. When has it been worse?
2008 to 2011 for starters.
A low sterling to dollar rate is actually good for the UK tourist industry and exporters to the US, even if bad for UK importers and tourists to the US.
After the 2008 crash unemployment reached 8% in the UK, it is now 4%.
In the mid 1970s inflation was also even higher than now
Delusional. This has the potential to be the biggest UK crisis I have ever seen. We run an 8% current account deficit. The currency is tanking. The Bank is having to reverse monetary tightening to prevent the collapse of the gilt market. The government has just unveiled insane fiscal plans that it refused to submit to independent scrutiny. We are financed by foreigners, they have lost confidence in us, completely.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
They should have saved all these fiscal changes for an actual budget so that the spending changes were spelt out, and with an OBR report attached. Half-arsing it has completely blown up in their faces.
Disclaimer - I’m not an economist, but this has the air of being really, really bad now. It feels like something is going to give.
Could we actually see the whole mini budget taken off the table in the next 24 hours?
This is actually a problem - those of us who have a rough understanding of all this might not appreciate that what the BoE has done serves as a big panic signal to "normal" people.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
Sunak will be looking like the cat that got the cream.
He maybe more likely he is extremely worried
This ends Kwarteng and Truss time in office, if not now very shortly
Why on earth would that worry Sunak ?
His time as Chancellor is looking absolubtely amazing.
To be fair he must be horrified and frankly conservative mps need to move him in fast as PM
Or Wallace as PM with Sunak as Chancellor. An election now is unthinkable with for the Conservative party and the country - and if they do move to change the government it would need to be someone in whom the markets have at least a modicum of trust. Otherwise it would just make things worse.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
Sunak will be looking like the cat that got the cream.
He maybe more likely he is extremely worried
This ends Kwarteng and Truss time in office, if not now very shortly
Why on earth would that worry Sunak ?
His time as Chancellor is looking absolubtely amazing.
To be fair he must be horrified and frankly conservative mps need to move him in fast as PM
Not happening, he has just been rejected by the membership and failed to win a majority of MPs even I the final round.
At most if Truss went he might come back as Chancellor if Wallace was given a coronation as PM
He hardly matter as the conservatives party are facing utter humiliation after the next GE and at least we can be happy to see the end of JRM, Dorries, Redwood, and most if not all the ERG
The conservatives will be out of office until these incompetents are cleared out
I'm no economist. But isn't the focus on the 45p to 40p tax cut a bit of a red herring given the amounts involved?
We borrowed huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, Covid. Now we're borrowing huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, the energy crisis (as well as, presumably, spending a fair amount on arming Ukraine). But then we borrow even more on top of that to fund tax cuts - not just the 45p, but also corporation taxes, the 19p rate, and so on.
If the markets think we're a bit bonkers, it's hardly surprising is it?
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
£45bn? You're counting the reversal of the NI rise that everyone at the time hated? How can it be terrible to increase a tax and then terrible to cancel that increase? Utter irrationality.
Because it's unfunded now. The state increased spending on the back of that tax income, so the spending still exists but now the tax income doesn't. That's why this is such a spectacular disaster. Being in government is about making difficult decisions, cutting spending to fund a reversal of the NI rise would have been a difficult decision and if they outlined what spending would be cut then the markets would have moved on. That the answer was "yeah we think this tax cut for rich people will generate higher trend growth and the tax cuts pay for themselves" was the answer is why we have a sovereign debt crisis.
I'm told by a city source it's hard to overstate how serious the situation is today. There is concern over the health of pension funds and this is why the Bank of England has acted...
This is a self inflicted financial crisis by the Truss government. Quite something
I find this a little hard to believe. The rise in gilt rates over the last week has been huge. This significantly reduces the capital that pension funds need to meet their liabilities to their members because they need to buy fewer gilts to meet the pension payments. Most pension funds of any size will also have reasonable investments in the US in particular and they are getting the upside of sterling weakness in that their assets their are getting a boost.
Of course, the rise in gilt rates, mortgage rates and the imported inflation of a fall in sterling are all bad things for the domestic economy so there are lots and lots of good reasons to be worried but pension funds are unlikely to be on the list.
The strong suggestion from so many of the "oh fuck" tweets this morning is that as yields skyrocket, the number of buyers collapse. If your £100 worth of gilt has no buyer, what is its value?
This is what killed the banking sector in 2008. A balance sheet full of assets with healthy paper values but no buyer = zero.
What on earth is the message going to be at the Conference next week?
I honestly don't know. This is such a huge fuck up, having the central bank essentially tell them they're a bunch of dickheads and have pushed the UK economy to the brink of crisis is pretty terrible.
BOE buying gilts indemnified by the government via gilt issuance because the market has lost faith in gilts, while the currency is in free fall, mortgage lending has shut down, inflation at 10%... We are heading for potentially the worst economic crisis in the UK in my lifetime.
This is what 25 years of Treasury orthodoxy has led to. It's all very well blaming the event that triggered it, but you shouldn't be in denial about the underlying issues it has exposed.
I'm no economist. But isn't the focus on the 45p to 40p tax cut a bit of a red herring given the amounts involved?
We borrowed huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, Covid. Now we're borrowing huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, the energy crisis (as well as, presumably, spending a fair amount on arming Ukraine). But then we borrow even more on top of that to fund tax cuts - not just the 45p, but also corporation taxes, the 19p rate, and so on.
If the markets think we're a bit bonkers, it's hardly surprising is it?
I just discovered something called a "mortgage prisoner" today. My work has been so focused on renters and benefit claimants in the past, it's a bit of a shock doing poverty analysis on non-claiming mortgage holders.
Back of envelope doesn't look good. There are definitely some tipping points on interest rates which dump disproportionate numbers of households into the red/poverty.
Negative equity will be back and what a background for the next GE
I know some will be surprised for me to say this but an early GE and Starmer in No 10 would be a relief
I just discovered something called a "mortgage prisoner" today. My work has been so focused on renters and benefit claimants in the past, it's a bit of a shock doing poverty analysis on non-claiming mortgage holders.
Back of envelope doesn't look good. There are definitely some tipping points on interest rates which dump disproportionate numbers of households into the red/poverty.
If "mortgage prisoner" is someone who can't move without taking an unaffordable loss, then I was one for a decade.
Disclaimer - I’m not an economist, but this has the air of being really, really bad now. It feels like something is going to give.
Could we actually see the whole mini budget taken off the table in the next 24 hours?
It's a bold Tory MP that votes for it.
If they abstain, then you have lost to the Opposition. If Tory MPs actively block it, then at a minimum the Chancellor has to resign. That might work for them. Truss can stay on. A bit longer. But she will be mortally wounded.
Boris could say and do what he wanted, but at least Rishi had his back with the markets.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
£45bn? You're counting the reversal of the NI rise that everyone at the time hated? How can it be terrible to increase a tax and then terrible to cancel that increase? Utter irrationality.
The problem with the UK is that your level of understanding is better than that held by the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer.
There’s absolutely no way Truss recovers any confidence from this. It’s not like she didn’t spend weeks before becoming PM saying she’ll do exactly the kind of crazy thing she’s done.
I just discovered something called a "mortgage prisoner" today. My work has been so focused on renters and benefit claimants in the past, it's a bit of a shock doing poverty analysis on non-claiming mortgage holders.
Back of envelope doesn't look good. There are definitely some tipping points on interest rates which dump disproportionate numbers of households into the red/poverty.
If "mortgage prisoner" is someone who can't move without taking an unaffordable loss, then I was one for a decade.
It would be interesting to know just how many remember those days as we do
I normally greatly enjoy turmoil and chaos (I still have the Jan 6 debacle on my Sky box) but I am struggling to derive any broken joy from whatever the fuck this is because I don't understand it.
Disclaimer - I’m not an economist, but this has the air of being really, really bad now. It feels like something is going to give.
Could we actually see the whole mini budget taken off the table in the next 24 hours?
This is actually a problem - those of us who have a rough understanding of all this might not appreciate that what the BoE has done serves as a big panic signal to "normal" people.
It has created money out of thin air to buy government debt. That's effectively what quantitive easing is.
It did so in order to stop the sale of gilts being a one way bet. It creates a short breathing space but doesn't solve the problem.
Kwarteng and Truss have virtually assured a labour government in 2024 and at the same time put the perceived mortgage rate rises at their door, when in truth the bond market worldwide is being routed through the authorities aggressive rise in interest rates as inflation is being fought against everywhere . It is likely about 1% has been added because of the kamikaze behaviour of Kwarteng but even if Starmer had been in no 10 he would be looking at a housing crisis that is hard to see how it is mitigated
I am old enough to remember negative equity and it looks as if this could return over the next few yeaes, but sadly we have become used to very low interest rates which look like being returned to more normal ones and yes many will be affected but we are not immune to worldwide events
Labour have had a good conference but the one thing missing is that they have failed to understand that the economy in 2024 is going to be in a very poor place, and ironically they may well have to raise taxes and reduce public sector spending by an amount that to a Labour party will be very difficult
I do not defend Kwarteng or Truss but at the very least she needs to sack Kwarteng if she wants to have any chance of surviving , and she has a ready made successor she knows only too well, one Rishi Sunak
The obvious pivot - which Starmer and his team have hinted at already - is how we rebuild after the Great Truss Financial Crisis. We invest, and gain a return on that investment. Some of that investing will need to come from government and he's already announced the first StateCo to do energy. Much will need to come from the private sector, and as they are always looking for something sane to put money in there will be plenty of opportunities.
This final phase of Torynomics will kill dead the stupidty of "who will pay for that" and "what will you cut to find the money". Investment had been turned by the Tories into a dirty word. Their spivvy hedgie friends don't want investment, they just want to turn a quick profit now and not care about tomorrow.
That has to end. So many of the things this country needs - infrastructure, hospitals and schools fit for purpose, sustainable self-reliant energy generation - deliver both a long-term positive ROI but a short-term boost when money goes to pay people to build stuff who then pay taxes and spend. Which gives other people jobs.
We used to call it capitalism. Starmer will lead us back there.
In normal times yes but 2024 will not be normal
As far as GB Energy is concerned it is modelled on EDF in France who have just had a 15 billion buy out by Macron and Lucy Powell this morning simply was wholly unconvincing in her explanation about its funding
Its pretty simple: 1. UK needs a big expansion in generating capacity 2. Instead of paying a foreign company to install, own and manage this, the UK will create its own company to do so 3. Instead of buying all of the components from abroad, the UK will promote UK manufacturing to supply turbines and solar panels.
The money will be spend regardless. Because there is no scenario where "sorry, we can't afford to create the generating capacity we need, we'll just have to have brownouts instead"
Also, France's issues this summer stemmed from the fact loads of their nuclear power stations were on rivers which obviously dry up somewhat in a heatwave. Sea level rises are quite predictable beyond the lifespan of any nuclear plant so it's not an issue we'd encounter as ours are all by the sea.
There are some things we cannot afford not to do. Energy generating capacity is a pertinent example - we either invest or we suffer both brownouts and crazy spot price gouging. So the money is being spent regardless - do we hand this over to the French government or the Swedish government, or copy their successful examples and do it ourselves?
With our geographic location and our tech / industrial abilities we should be a global leader in renewables. Instead the market and a "government involvement is communism" mindset means we are nowhere. If we're to spend the money - and we are - why not have something to show for it other than just the infrastructure?
It is more or less what I was advocating on here a couple of days ago, except I thought of renationalisation of existing companies rather than setting one up from scratch.
Personally, I like SKS's idea. The UK needs control of its critical infrastructure rather than bleeding money to foreign owners
Why renationalise any of them? We have regulated markets. Simply regulate them so that the new StateCo is in prime position and let the private sector decide whether it wants to play in a competitive market instead of the protected cartels we have now.
Big_G and DavidL have raised concerns and they are understandable to a point. But the only way we will ever regain our ability to manufacture, install and manage wind turbines is if we do so. And there is something seriously pathetic about an argument that Britain is unable to do the basics that somewhere like Sweden can and its too hard / risky for us to repair that position so that we can.
So much for global Britain. Some on the right would have us an eternal supplicant.
The problem with that is that StateCo becomes the new cartel, and when it fails to work properly the industry - and hence all of us - are screwed. This has happened time and time again.
You also seem to be in favour of protectionism?
The problem with state owned monopolies is that
- they tend to producer interest. If you are state defined monoply, fucking the customers over is the sensible option. 6 week waits for installing a telephone were good for BT. Think DVLA….
- investment tends to be controlled for political interest. Locations for one. Long term investment vanishes - why spend money to bear fruit after the next election?
Ultimately they see producing the service as irritating byproduct of their existence. See the Yes Minister episode about the best hospital in the NHS. The one with no patients.
I'm at a loss at all the DVLA stories, For the simple stuff things are done in minutes automatically and then sent in days...
What is left and takes time is the complex bits...
My Dad (83) had his driving licence withdrawn after an eye test in Dec, midway between cataract surgery (both eyes, completed in Jan). It took 8 months to get it back, despite his eyesight being fine in January. There have been stories of staff refusing to return to the office because covid. Utter shambles. MP was useless, didn't even answer emails for help.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
The cut is not the issue. The issue is that the cut is seen as a pointless giveaway that will not make a positive economic impact, so what it communicates to the markets is that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing & has retreated into conservative shibboleths rather than actually engage with the difficult work of fixing the UK economy & sorting out our debt situation.
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
But the amount of the "giveaway" (actually, a "take less away") is negligible so it can't be expected to make a significant economic impact either way - it's a political decision reversing Gordon Brown's last-minute vindictiveness on his way out of the door.
Once again: the impact isn’t the problem. The problem is that it demonstrates that the government is economically illiterate and has no idea what it’s doing at a time when the UK finances are incredibly precarious.
A tax cut to those earning over £150k does next to nothing for GDP growth. At the absolute best it will have a 1x multiplier if those who benefit from the cut spend every penny in the UK economy. In fact they’re likely to save a good chunk of it, quite possibly in non-UK instruments.
Yet the Chanceller went out there & claimed that this was the best possible use of this £2billion - that this was the best way to increase GDP & help fix the hole that the UK is in.
This was such obvious arrant nonsense that the markets concluded that the government had taken leave of its senses & has acted accordingly.
Honestly, I think if he’d gone out & said: “the conservative party is only interested in increasing the wealth of the highest earners in society & it is right & proper that we cut their taxes” the markets might have had less of an issue!
There’s absolutely no way Truss recovers any confidence from this. It’s not like she didn’t spend weeks before becoming PM saying she’ll do exactly the kind of crazy thing she’s done.
No one will trust her. Her credibility is shot.
There is a precedent for someone who came in, lost market confidence, but then went on to serve 14 years at the top: François Mitterrand.
Why, why, why did the Tory MPs who were anti-Truss back Rishi? All the polls said Truss would beat him. If they didn't want Truss they had to back either Kemi or Penny. I doubt either of them would have done as badly as Truss has so far. I said at the time they had made a mistake.
It was a bit like in 2015 when Labour MPs nominated Corbyn to open up the debate. In both situations they were thinking tactically rather than strategically.
What the hell have they done. Where are the Tory MPs who need to shout as loud as possible and get these two idiots out
I'm still struggling - really struggling - to see why a tax cut worth at most £2 billion has caused such an extreme reaction. It seems utterly irrational.
Look wider than that. They are borrowing - or wanted to borrow, it'll now be QE - tens of billions to expand UK debt to basically warehouse the costs of Covid. And make the cost of living more expensive for everyone except those at the very top. Thus markedly shrinking outputs further making the whole exercise unaffordable and not viable.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
So it is completely irrational, then. I'm glad I haven't missed anything.
But it's not irrational, the markets fairly asked the question of how the £45bn in tax cuts would be funded and they got fantasy economics as an answer. That has destroyed credibility in the UK. It's like going into a bank and asking for a £45k loan and when they ask you how you intend to pay it back because "we don't think you can afford the repayments, Mr Driver" you tell them "it's fine, this will pay for itself because £2k of it will generate me loads of income".
£45bn? You're counting the reversal of the NI rise that everyone at the time hated? How can it be terrible to increase a tax and then terrible to cancel that increase? Utter irrationality.
The money from the NI rise was used in the budget to fund spending or other tax cuts. If you forgo the money from the NI rise then you need to find the money to do so in the budget either by increasing a different tax, or by cutting spending.
I'm told by a city source it's hard to overstate how serious the situation is today. There is concern over the health of pension funds and this is why the Bank of England has acted...
This is a self inflicted financial crisis by the Truss government. Quite something
I find this a little hard to believe. The rise in gilt rates over the last week has been huge. This significantly reduces the capital that pension funds need to meet their liabilities to their members because they need to buy fewer gilts to meet the pension payments. Most pension funds of any size will also have reasonable investments in the US in particular and they are getting the upside of sterling weakness in that their assets their are getting a boost.
Of course, the rise in gilt rates, mortgage rates and the imported inflation of a fall in sterling are all bad things for the domestic economy so there are lots and lots of good reasons to be worried but pension funds are unlikely to be on the list.
Pension funds don't suddenly hold bonds that are paying out more interest.
They are holding bonds that have now gone down in value.
There’s absolutely no way Truss recovers any confidence from this. It’s not like she didn’t spend weeks before becoming PM saying she’ll do exactly the kind of crazy thing she’s done.
No one will trust her. Her credibility is shot.
There is a precedent for someone who came in, lost market confidence, but then went on to serve 14 years at the top: François Mitterrand.
If you think Truss is an equal politician to Mitterand then I have a bridge to sell you.
Comments
If they’d borrowed to spend on something that was seen as having a positive net GDP effect in the medium term, I think the view would have been a very different one.
In summation, it’s not the amount that matters, it’s what it tells us about this government. Bond & currency traders have lost faith in this government’s ability to navigate the difficult waters ahead as a result of Kwarteng’s special monetary operation.
Basically saying the HMG don't care about costing or balancing budgets, and they you can 'do what you like' if it increases growth (which it didn't do).
This is a self inflicted financial crisis by the Truss government. Quite something
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575068963267977218
Kwasi is "superficially" CoE.....
This ends Kwarteng and Truss time in office, if not now very shortly
The UK has to run on a set of fairly tight fiscal rules, current budget should be balanced over the medium term and the government should be spending 2.5-3% of GDP on investment per year. These dickheads are pushing the current budget out to an 8% deficit and proposing to increase investment to 4% with no concrete numbers from a respected institution showing these permanent measures will result in any significant growth to bring those numbers back down.
The additional rate tax cut is totemic for what the new government stands - fantasy economics.
A special fiscal operation.
His time as Chancellor is looking absolubtely amazing.
The 45p cut was the straw that broke the back of market confidence. Not because of £2bn. Because it shows the direction of travel and the collected global financial community knows that way leads to ruin. So they're pricing our currency and debt accordingly.
You and yours can disagree with them all you like. They are the market., You have to carry the market with you or you are Greece. We are now Greece. Congratulations.
Last week Kwasi (accidently / without thinking) made the lie so obvious that the market had to react to it so we have a BIG problem until someone creates a new position that the markets can accept as plausible...
Tories under 20% very possible
Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
·
2m
I'm told:
- Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital
- Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts
- Some pension funds losing large amounts of their fund
- Hence BoE stepped in
- They are worried about systemic risk and without move today some pension funds could have gone under (they still might)
- There’s a global bond tour going on "so probably the worst time in recent history to make unfunded pledges" says a source
Like Bank of England stabilizing the economy sounds... not ideal that it is necessary, but good that they can do it?
I mean he could have cut it and introduced a land tax/windfall tax/raise inheritance tax to raise the appropriate lost revenue/signal to markets he was serious about the economy.
But he didn't do any of that.
I’m surprised Sterling is mostly unmoved.
Odd.
The pure silliness of the tax cut; its triviality is what makes it so serious. As if he had announced a 1% VAT rise on nuts, except pistachios.
Because there was zero economic justification for it - while changing things at £100,000 made economic sense...
Starmer couldn't answer the question about the number of turbines, or about planning rules, or about the likelihood of meeting the 2030 target date, for net-zero domestic electricity generation. He couldn't answer questions about taxation rises or the effect on the national debt resulting from all the spending commitments he had made. All he could say was "we'll do better".
How on Earth can you announce something one day, and yet not have absorbed even the most basic details of the plans? If you worked for a business and gave a presentation about new projects and expenditure you would be expected to offer at least some ball-park numbers, not shrug your shoulders and waffle on about how great it will all be.
Here's a clue for any Labour MPs going on the Radio 5 breakfast show, do some research so that you don't look like an idiot.
* Traditionally it's Rachel Reeves who ends up looking a wally when she can't answer some easy-peasy questions from Rachel Burden.
It's hard not to think that they intended to create this reaction. Articles of Impeachment should be drawn up. A Bill of Attainder. It's either criminal intent or criminal negligence.
Interest rates rise so gilt prices fall
That impacts the capital the pension fund has - a gilt worth £100 yesterday is worth £90 today
Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital
Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts
Gilts are now worth £85, (pensions capital is worth even less) and the loop continues
Fabulous time to be a speculator, this. UK politicians and central bankers with their wires crossed making panicky irrational decisions.
Of course, the rise in gilt rates, mortgage rates and the imported inflation of a fall in sterling are all bad things for the domestic economy so there are lots and lots of good reasons to be worried but pension funds are unlikely to be on the list.
Not this time. The ideologues running the government (and their remaining few PB Parrots) insist they are right, everyone is wrong and we just need to "stay the course". Truss didn't even want to put out a statement yesterday. And today its forced the BofE into an emergency buy of gilts to stop the collapse of pension funds.
Yes still these wazzocks insist they are right and the collected global financial market is wrong. Better still, the likes of the IMF must be leftist remoaners - because so much energy has been spent saying *everything* is the fault of leftist remoaners.
Again again, our currency is fiat. Scrip. A confidence note. So you have to retain the confidence of the market - the people who price and trade and buy your currency - or you are fucked. Instead of saying "yeah ok this isn't working, lets shore up the pound" we get idiots like BR saying "great, lets get it to $0.20"
It is the splat of rhetoric, of idiocy, of the whole post-trust alt-fact stupidity of modern politics going splat against the wall of reality. The correct price of any product is what someone is willing to pay for it.
And no matter how hard the zealots insist its marvellous and the best in the world and we're all so clever and you're so stupid, the price isn't set by us. And even as this reality crashes around them, the wazzocks keep doubling down. "It's Kier Starmer's fault" would be funny if our pension funds hadn't faced collapse this morning...
I can see why the financial markets are worried. Someone might start looking under the carpet to see what else is under there.
Does that mean the QE announced by BofE major incident operations and reverse QE announced by government will be happening
simultaneously?
I just discovered something called a "mortgage prisoner" today. My work has been so focused on renters and benefit claimants in the past, it's a bit of a shock doing poverty analysis on non-claiming mortgage holders.
Back of envelope doesn't look good. There are definitely some tipping points on interest rates which dump disproportionate numbers of households into the red/poverty.
A low sterling to dollar rate is actually good for the UK tourist industry and exporters to the US, even if bad for UK importers and tourists to the US.
After the 2008 crash unemployment reached 8% in the UK, it is now 4%. Unemployment reached 12% in the UK in 1984.
In the mid 1970s inflation was also even higher than now
Loyalty to an idiot is just idiotic.
So, who might be right here?
The market - the thing taking the action and saying "its the 45p rate"
Or you?
At most if Truss went he might come back as Chancellor if Wallace was given a coronation as PM
Could we actually see the whole mini budget taken off the table in the next 24 hours?
The UK has become the number one stupid place to invest. And still wazzocks say the market is wrong and they/Truss are right.
This only ends one way. The market will beat you into bloody submission.
Because like many here, I don't really understand why there has been such a big reaction to what is essentially trickle down economics funded on debt, something the GOP do all the time.
An election now is unthinkable with for the Conservative party and the country - and if they do move to change the government it would need to be someone in whom the markets have at least a modicum of trust. Otherwise it would just make things worse.
The conservatives will be out of office until these incompetents are cleared out
What a spike at 11am today!
We borrowed huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, Covid. Now we're borrowing huge amounts to deal with, and recover from, the energy crisis (as well as, presumably, spending a fair amount on arming Ukraine). But then we borrow even more on top of that to fund tax cuts - not just the 45p, but also corporation taxes, the 19p rate, and so on.
If the markets think we're a bit bonkers, it's hardly surprising is it?
This is what killed the banking sector in 2008. A balance sheet full of assets with healthy paper values but no buyer = zero.
I know some will be surprised for me to say this but an early GE and Starmer in No 10 would be a relief
If they abstain, then you have lost to the Opposition. If Tory MPs actively block it, then at a minimum the Chancellor has to resign. That might work for them. Truss can stay on. A bit longer. But she will be mortally wounded.
Boris could say and do what he wanted, but at least Rishi had his back with the markets.
Truss has a Chancellor who is a mini-me of her.
$1.059
No one will trust her. Her credibility is shot.
That's effectively what quantitive easing is.
It did so in order to stop the sale of gilts being a one way bet. It creates a short breathing space but doesn't solve the problem.
A tax cut to those earning over £150k does next to nothing for GDP growth. At the absolute best it will have a 1x multiplier if those who benefit from the cut spend every penny in the UK economy. In fact they’re likely to save a good chunk of it, quite possibly in non-UK instruments.
Yet the Chanceller went out there & claimed that this was the best possible use of this £2billion - that this was the best way to increase GDP & help fix the hole that the UK is in.
This was such obvious arrant nonsense that the markets concluded that the government had taken leave of its senses & has acted accordingly.
Honestly, I think if he’d gone out & said: “the conservative party is only interested in increasing the wealth of the highest earners in society & it is right & proper that we cut their taxes” the markets might have had less of an issue!
It was a bit like in 2015 when Labour MPs nominated Corbyn to open up the debate. In both situations they were thinking tactically rather than strategically.
You can't simply borrow the money.
There is no way back for Truss’s govt
They have destroyed their economic credibility.
They are holding bonds that have now gone down in value.