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It’s a 41% betting chance that Truss won’t survive 2023 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,163
edited September 2022 in General
imageIt’s a 41% betting chance that Truss won’t survive 2023 – politicalbetting.com

The problems that Truss is having have not been helped by Starmer having a good conference and looking increasingly like the PM in waiting. Labour and its leader are on the up and the Tories moving down – something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited September 2022
    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    - “… something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of.“

    The latest polls indicate a complete Conservative wipeout in both Scotland and Wales.

    That would result in a Con seat distribution of perhaps:

    England 250 seats
    Scotland 0 seats
    Wales 0 seats
    N Ireland 0 seats

    Not a good look for a supposedly “Unionist” party.

    If they only get 250 seats they wouldn’t even be a majority in their home country England. They could easily not even win a plurality there.

    This is an existential problem not just for the Conservatives, but for all Unionists, which is why Labour are trying to throw them as many lifelines they can without seriously pissing off their own base.

    The distribution of seats matters. It looks like the Tories are well on their way to being a sect.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    @WillG

    Back in the days before I ran an insurance company, I did a little video on the UK economy (called "It's not about The Brexit") that I think you'd enjoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrpA2uEWEgI
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    FPT

    "Truss learns the hard way that Britain isn’t America
    Reaganism is a good idea, but Reaganism without the dollar isn’t
    JANAN GANESH" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/bd511177-f2a3-4787-937a-f67856e09c4e
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).

    Yes, this was the true toxicity of the 45p change.
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 134
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "Truss learns the hard way that Britain isn’t America
    Reaganism is a good idea, but Reaganism without the dollar isn’t
    JANAN GANESH" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/bd511177-f2a3-4787-937a-f67856e09c4e

    Truss? Nah. More like the rest of the country.

    Conference week next week will be amazing to see on the television the few thousand fools that have inflicted this pain on the rest of us. I hope we get lots of Vox pops on why they thought Truss was the one to pick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    DOJ is going to have to pay some of Trump's legal costs to avoid an indefinite delay in the documents case, as no reputable firm in a specialist document handling sector will sign a contract with him.
    Whether they fear reputations damage, or just don't think they'll get paid is unclear.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/joshuajfriedman/status/1574885275322425421
    DOJ reports to Judge Dearie that none of the five government-approved vendors is willing to sign a contract with the Trump team. DOJ says that in the interest of time, it's going to try to hire a vendor itself.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,917
    fpt
    CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    No he isn't. He and I have had our disagreements but he is in reality a very nice person.

    I've never seen him be nice to anyone. This says a lot about your judge of character that you consider a bully to be nice. I've seen him people like him pick on my friends all my life, they are not nice. They're bullies. That is what they are.

    So you have sadly gone down in my estimation a lot, I am afraid to say.

    Now I'm off to the pub, sadly lost at mini golf.
    You still looking to "make your year" by bullying a genial pensioner off this site?
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 134
    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).

    Yes, this was the true toxicity of the 45p change.
    Why have people forgotten about the energy price cap? This thing that could cost as much as the NHS budget? That was the extra bonus the country had got for the next two years, that was the really expensive thing which we were pushing our luck with. There was nothing left in the kitty for anything else.

    Truss and Kwasi tested the waters with that a week or so before the mini clusterfuck, nope, the market didn't seem to mind. So they thought fuck this, we're going to have a bit of fun.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Against many expectations, the latest Biogen Alzheimer's drug has shown fairly strong evidence of slowing cognitive decline.

    The amyloid hypothesis has clawed its way out of the grave.

    Probably approvable by the FDA, but I seriously doubt NIHCE is going to let the NHS fund it any time soon.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ouch.

    According to this;

    https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates

    25 year gilts >5%
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    BlancheLivermore said:

    fpt

    CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    No he isn't. He and I have had our disagreements but he is in reality a very nice person.

    I've never seen him be nice to anyone. This says a lot about your judge of character that you consider a bully to be nice. I've seen him people like him pick on my friends all my life, they are not nice. They're bullies. That is what they are.

    So you have sadly gone down in my estimation a lot, I am afraid to say.

    Now I'm off to the pub, sadly lost at mini golf.
    You still looking to "make your year" by bullying a genial pensioner off this site?
    Please leave this on the last thread. There is no point wrecking two threads with it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    TinkyWinky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).

    Yes, this was the true toxicity of the 45p change.
    Why have people forgotten about the energy price cap? This thing that could cost as much as the NHS budget? That was the extra bonus the country had got for the next two years, that was the really expensive thing which we were pushing our luck with. There was nothing left in the kitty for anything else.

    Truss and Kwasi tested the waters with that a week or so before the mini clusterfuck, nope, the market didn't seem to mind. So they thought fuck this, we're going to have a bit of fun.
    There is not really a kitty in that sense, but there is no evidence anyone has forgotten about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    TinkyWinky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).

    Yes, this was the true toxicity of the 45p change.
    Why have people forgotten about the energy price cap? This thing that could cost as much as the NHS budget? That was the extra bonus the country had got for the next two years, that was the really expensive thing which we were pushing our luck with. There was nothing left in the kitty for anything else.

    Truss and Kwasi tested the waters with that a week or so before the mini clusterfuck, nope, the market didn't seem to mind. So they thought fuck this, we're going to have a bit of fun.
    It's fair to say there were no good outcomes - not implementing a price cap would have caused economic chaos, too. Any administration would be in a very tough spot (as are we all).
    But taking the markets for granted, as the government seems to have done, was just foolish.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    TinkyWinky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The 45p tax cut and the markets' response that were exercising posters on the last thread might have been explained by Alastair Campbell in his podcast with Rory. The other measures were priced in because LizT had been talking about reversing the NI rise throughout the summer's leadership campaign, and the energy cap freeze.more recently. The 45p abolition took the markets by surprise, as well as signifying borrowing for tax cuts.

    Regardless of whether Campbell was right about the markets, this might explain why Labour ran with it (although any LotO surely would).

    Yes, this was the true toxicity of the 45p change.
    Why have people forgotten about the energy price cap? This thing that could cost as much as the NHS budget? That was the extra bonus the country had got for the next two years, that was the really expensive thing which we were pushing our luck with. There was nothing left in the kitty for anything else.

    Truss and Kwasi tested the waters with that a week or so before the mini clusterfuck, nope, the market didn't seem to mind. So they thought fuck this, we're going to have a bit of fun.
    Abject nonsense from Alistair “dirty dossier” Campbell. The 45p cut is flagged by the IFS as costing only £2bn at the upper range and very possibly fiscally neutral.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    Yes whether fair or not, this is the narrative that will stick.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    moonshine said:

    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?

    Low taxes for rich people are being paid for by rising borrowing costs for the home-owning poor and middle classes.

    And next you’re going to attack workers rights.

    Good luck winning the next election with that agenda. As Kier said yesterday, this ain’t the brexit you voted for…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    how long before the IMF is accused of getting woke
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574889428958560256

    Too late, obviously...

    Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1574876146390503424

    If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become.
    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Former MPC member, Danny Blanchflower, on GMB this morning absolutely savaging the govt over this shambolic financial event.

    Thinks they will have to U turn.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039
    Taz said:

    Former MPC member, Danny Blanchflower, on GMB this morning absolutely savaging the govt over this shambolic financial event.

    Thinks they will have to U turn.

    He was the guy that forecast 5 million unemployed after we left the EU, wasn't he?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,964
    moonshine said:

    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me*!

    *us
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited September 2022
    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Good morning, everyone.

    I see the not-a-budget has developed in a way not necessarily to Truss' advantage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    Scott_xP said:

    how long before the IMF is accused of getting woke
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574889428958560256

    Too late, obviously...

    Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1574876146390503424

    If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become.
    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048

    I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.

    The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.

    That's absolutely none of their business.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    moonshine said:

    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?

    These self-serving self-entitled nitwits have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Meloni is a proper firebrand
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    Leon said:

    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl

    That's actually quite impressive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    She's the Lady Jane Truss of politics.

    She could beat Bonar Law's tenure in shortness.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039
    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    You thought you'd be paying real interest rates of -5% while savers get screwed forever?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    moonshine said:

    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?

    You have lost it when you start attacking the IMF and Credit Rating Agencies.

    Look closer to home.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    Yeah but when you get a decent job you will get a tax cut!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
    That's usually a huge factor in why you should prep for the worst.

    I took out my mortgage in 2000 which was eight years after Black Wednesday, it still had a big impact on my thinking.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Fishing said:

    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    You thought you'd be paying real interest rates of -5% while savers get screwed forever?
    Who gives a f*ck about savers! The wrinklies who make up the vast majority of savers have been living off working folk for yonks
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    how long before the IMF is accused of getting woke
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574889428958560256

    Too late, obviously...

    Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1574876146390503424

    If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become.
    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048

    I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.

    The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.

    That's absolutely none of their business.
    It’s the top news story on GMB news. I get the impression GMB are not in favour of the chancellors plans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    Fishing said:

    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    You thought you'd be paying real interest rates of -5% while savers get screwed forever?
    Savers will continue to get screwed even if they are paid 6% interest when inflation is 10%+. It will be a real terms loss of 4% pa.

    I think people are imagining a world where inflation is 2-3%, we have decent annual GDP growth *and* interest rates are 5-6% on savings.

    We aren't in that world and probably won't be for a very long time. Everyone loses under the current scenario - borrowers and savers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited September 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl

    That's actually quite impressive.
    Very impressive. Her first meeting with Macron will be one to watch.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Leon said:

    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl

    She's no Liz Truss is she.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    No self-awareness.

    Not everyone has the bank of mum and dad to act as guarantor and bail them out.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Or just get a job earning more than £150k so you deserve the tax cut that will pay the increase, simples!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,813
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
    The rates were going up regardless. Even before this mess the consensus forecast was 4.75% by mid next year, implying mortgage rates of ~6%, this has brought it forwards by a few months.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    No self-awareness.

    Not everyone has the bank of mum and dad to act as guarantor and bail them out.
    TSE in no self awareness shocker
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Maybe they can afford it. They can still feel sick and angry about it.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    A lot of people don't have a choice, because otherwise they can't buy a property. If you live in the south east and sat out the last 12 years because you could not afford to service a mortgage at potentially 12% interest, life would have just passed you by; you would never have never built up any assets. And rents in that time also doubled in some areas. It would be the difference now between being rich and poor. People were essentially being forced to gamble.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    Has a Downfall parody of the mini-budget been done yet?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    edited September 2022
    Truss/Kwarteng definitely giving off the feeling of the last few days in the fuhrerbunker.

    Surely it can only be a matter of hours until they deploy the volkssturm.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Blanchflower not mincing his words

    https://twitter.com/d_blanchflower/status/1574849858720112640?s=21&t=5XjBQMpNwZiUU-8x6PX8Wg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    No self-awareness.

    Not everyone has the bank of mum and dad to act as guarantor and bail them out.
    My parents have never bailed me out though, that's the thing, I knew I had to live within my means.

    My salary went up a lot after I took out my mortgage, I was putting that most of that to one side as savings to pay off the mortgage in one lump sum/increasing my monthly payments.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    StuartDickson said:

    - “… something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of.“

    The latest polls indicate a complete Conservative wipeout in both Scotland and Wales.

    That would result in a Con seat distribution of perhaps:

    England 250 seats
    Scotland 0 seats
    Wales 0 seats
    N Ireland 0 seats

    Not a good look for a supposedly “Unionist” party.

    If they only get 250 seats they wouldn’t even be a majority in their home country England. They could easily not even win a plurality there.

    This is an existential problem not just for the Conservatives, but for all Unionists, which is why Labour are trying to throw them as many lifelines they can without seriously pissing off their own base.

    The distribution of seats matters. It looks like the Tories are well on their way to being a sect.

    Even if the Tories drop to 250 that isn't low enough for a Labour majority so I'm not tempted to back that. Wales will be good for them but I'm not expecting any gains in Scotland.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Or just get a job earning more than £150k so you deserve the tax cut that will pay the increase, simples!!
    Premier League players to earn extra £240k a year after tax cuts

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-players-to-earn-extra-240k-a-year-after-tax-cuts-s9r83kbrg
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    murali_s said:

    Fishing said:

    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    You thought you'd be paying real interest rates of -5% while savers get screwed forever?
    Who gives a f*ck about savers! The wrinklies who make up the vast majority of savers have been living off working folk for yonks
    Whose money do you think you are borrowing
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    edited September 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    A fine mess the free market would be in if everyone followed that advice. It's when people spend without that kind of caution that the economy booms.

    Still, why not make money out of the dupes when you can, and when it all goes wrong tell them it's their own fault?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Chris said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    A fine mess the free market would be in if everyone followed that advice. It's when people spend without that kind of caution that the economy booms.

    Still, why not make money out of the dupes when you can, and when it all goes wrong tell them it's their own fault?
    He just did.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    bigjohnowls said:

    moonshine said:

    For those unaware, the head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who served as an EU Commissioner from 2010 to 2016, and was Juncker’s Vice President of the Commission at the time of the Brexit vote.

    Now I wonder why the IMF might make a political intervention beyond their remit… could it perchance be because of an institutional bias against a low tax, loose regulation Britain off the coast of the Single Market?

    You have lost it when you start attacking the IMF and Credit Rating Agencies.

    Look closer to home.
    There's a lot of "you're not my Dad" syndrome around at the moment.

    Of course it's possible that Trussonimics is brilliant. That the reason people don't want us doing it is because it will work too well and every nation will want to do it. That the orthodoxy is a conspiracy. It's also possible that embittered Europhiles are looking for any excuse to do us down.


    But the simpler explanation is that people are offering their opinion in reasonably good faith. As good faith as any other human.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Where is Truss? Has she run away?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Or just get a job earning more than £150k so you deserve the tax cut that will pay the increase, simples!!
    Premier League players to earn extra £240k a year after tax cuts

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-players-to-earn-extra-240k-a-year-after-tax-cuts-s9r83kbrg
    Think I might do that then!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Chris said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    A fine mess the free market would be in if everyone followed that advice. It's when people spend without that kind of caution that the economy booms.

    Still, why not make money out of the dupes when you can, and when it all goes wrong tell them it's their own fault?
    I've been telling friends and people on here that interest rates wouldn't remain so low, and you should take advantage if you are a mortgage holder to overpay on your mortgage.

    You don't need a Nobel Prize in economics to know low introductory rates wouldn't last.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Have we not already completely filled this Bingo card?

    Arguments I'm expecting to see in the days ahead:

    - Savers are benefiting. You don't hear about that. Suspicious
    - higher interest rates weed out the weak. Good for us
    - Exporters LOVE this!
    - Remember the 364... Being in a minority proves you're right
    - The IMF/HMT/etc? Lefties

    https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1575006328267079680
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Truss? Has she run away?

    It is a convention that a PM keeps a low profile during the opposition's conference.

    Something Gordon Brown shamefully failed to do in 2007 and was roundly criticised for.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Ray Boulger of John Charcol mortgage brokers predicting a 10% fall in house prices next year due to turmoil in mortgage market, on #r4today
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1575007858906628097
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    She's just not up to it, lightweight Lizzy.

    Liz Truss initially resisted plans to issue an official statement to calm the markets when the pound fell to a record low after Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget.

    On Monday the Treasury and the Bank of England released apparently co-ordinated statements within minutes of each other after a day of market turmoil.

    However, Sky News disclosed that the prime minister had to be persuaded to do so during a discussion with Kwarteng. They decided that given the Bank’s planned statement the government should also release one. In it, Kwarteng committed the government to updating its fiscal rules and publishing a forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scrapping-45p-tax-rate-was-right-choice-kwarteng-tells-tory-mps-mcbsznbqx
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Scott_xP said:

    Ray Boulger of John Charcol mortgage brokers predicting a 10% fall in house prices next year due to turmoil in mortgage market, on #r4today
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1575007858906628097

    Exellent
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Truss? Has she run away?

    It is a convention that a PM keeps a low profile during the opposition's conference.

    Something Gordon Brown shamefully failed to do in 2007 and was roundly criticised for.
    Not sure that convention applies when the PM crashes the economy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    murali_s said:

    Fishing said:

    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    You thought you'd be paying real interest rates of -5% while savers get screwed forever?
    Who gives a f*ck about savers! The wrinklies who make up the vast majority of savers have been living off working folk for yonks
    I doubt savers care about you and your mortgage payments either. Dig deep sunshine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    I am sympathetic, a lot of people will be looking at such problems of refinancing.

    Businesses have similar problems refinancing their debts, and consumer facing businesses even more so. If customers cannot afford to shop, and businesses cannot afford to borrow it becomes a downward spiral very quickly. There are a lot of zombie businesses out there that could be finally felled.

    I think people are already modifying behaviour. My private clinic is at its quietest since covid, after being brim full all year. Anecdotal, but self funded health care seems a good economic indicator
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Leon said:

    Meloni is a proper firebrand

    Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    I think it's about evens that the government doesn't last until Christmas. The problems in the gilt market are starting to have the hallmarks of a full blown financial crisis as LDI funds are finding themselves facing margin calls and deleveraging aggressively, creating a vicious cycle in which the price of gilts gets pushed lower and lower. If the BOE hikes rates more to stem the fall in GBP it only makes the problems in the gilt market worse. I'm not sure the government could survive what might be about to happen. Financial markets are reaching a tipping point when it comes to the UK (and yes, Brexit is absolutely in the mix among the cocktail of reasons why that loss of confidence has occurred).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl

    The politics of division and hate. It has all been done before by the far right (and the far left for that matter). A shame that anyone with half a brain thinks it is anything to be admired.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    On Starmer and a route to victory on terrain vacated by Truss's flight from sanity https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/keir-starmer-labour-liz-truss-politics?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Or just get a job earning more than £150k so you deserve the tax cut that will pay the increase, simples!!
    Premier League players to earn extra £240k a year after tax cuts

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-players-to-earn-extra-240k-a-year-after-tax-cuts-s9r83kbrg
    If a foreign player, how does that work out when factoring the depreciation of Sterling?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni

    You've got one

    Remember Truss congratulated Meloni on her win, but can't say if Macron is a friend
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Meloni is a proper firebrand

    Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
    Let’s wait and see, shall we?

    She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,665
    edited September 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    how long before the IMF is accused of getting woke
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574889428958560256

    Too late, obviously...

    Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1574876146390503424

    If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become.
    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048

    I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.

    The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.

    That's absolutely none of their business.
    I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Our mortgage is up for renewal in April. Looking at the latest fixed rates we could be paying £700-£1000 more per month. What the frack!?! Never mind sending Kami Kwasi and Loopy Liz to prison, they should be sent to Russia to work in a gulag till the end of their days!

    I am sympathetic, a lot of people will be looking at such problems of refinancing.

    Businesses have similar problems refinancing their debts, and consumer facing businesses even more so. If customers cannot afford to shop, and businesses cannot afford to borrow it becomes a downward spiral very quickly. There are a lot of zombie businesses out there that could be finally felled.

    I think people are already modifying behaviour. My private clinic is at its quietest since covid, after being brim full all year. Anecdotal, but self funded health care seems a good economic indicator
    Add in a large rise in energy costs, doubling for a lot of businesses even with the price cap, and it's going to be a grim winter.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni

    You've got one

    Remember Truss congratulated Meloni on her win, but can't say if Macron is a friend
    It would be nice if Truss had the charisma of Meloni. She doesn’t, alas
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,665
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Or just get a job earning more than £150k so you deserve the tax cut that will pay the increase, simples!!
    Premier League players to earn extra £240k a year after tax cuts

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-players-to-earn-extra-240k-a-year-after-tax-cuts-s9r83kbrg
    If a foreign player, how does that work out when factoring the depreciation of Sterling?
    I'd have thought most PL players are paid through a series of tax avoiding companies anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Giorgia Meloni giving France and Macron an absolute shoeing


    https://twitter.com/fauzkhalid/status/1574950656246394882?s=46&t=eihqjf35Aed1t-wsPWKF4A

    Go, girl

    The politics of division and hate. It has all been done before by the far right (and the far left for that matter). A shame that anyone with half a brain thinks it is anything to be admired.
    You didn’t watch the clip, did you?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    Interesting piece in the Telegraph. Accompanying family of students now are over 80 000 per year, compared to 13 000 pre Covid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/26/foreign-students-bringing-relatives-record-numbers/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    .
    Leon said:

    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni

    You've made that clear for years before you knew who she was.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    My daughter completes on her Nationwide re mortgage today. Their current rates, issued yesterday are more than 2% up on her 10 year fix offer.

    She has her fingers crossed it all goes through
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Eagles, do you think MPs will actually act against Truss imminently?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ping said:

    A random comment from a random forum;

    “We need to remortgage in May. I feel physically sick. These 6% rates will cost us an extra £800 per month.

    Truss and Kwarteng should go to prison for what they have done. “

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390116/nationwide-announce-revised-interest-rates

    ….Somewhat suboptimal for the tories….

    No sympathy.

    When you take out a mortgage you should factor in big rate rises and work out if you can afford it.
    Hmm, when some of the increase in the rates is due to simple unforced errors by politicians, there is a completely different spin on this.
    That's usually a huge factor in why you should prep for the worst.

    I took out my mortgage in 2000 which was eight years after Black Wednesday, it still had a big impact on my thinking.
    I think, underneath the polling, is a rather simple economic explanation for the tory and labour fortunes.

    House price rises.

    The tories built a coalition of those who benefitted from them and hoped to benefit from them. They’ve reached the inevitable end of the road.

    The tories are now jettisoning the mortgaged homeowner part of their voter coalition. I’d love to see polling broken down by %ltv.

    Fuck knows who Truss thought her ‘24 electoral coalition was going to be made up of. There simply aren’t enough pensioners and outright owners to keep her in government.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, do you think MPs will actually act against Truss imminently?

    12 month rule apparently
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,644
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni

    You've got one

    Remember Truss congratulated Meloni on her win, but can't say if Macron is a friend
    “That’s a nice electricity supply you’ve got in the Channel Islands. It would be a shame if anything happened to it.”
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,153
    edited September 2022
    Good morning everyone.

    A brighter and fresher London morning today, more like one of those more hopeful days in October or March than now.

    On that question of a new perception of a global systemic risk from Britain that I was talking about yesterday, and that some PB posters were, perhaps understandably, initially a bit sceptical of :

    "It’s a combination of the spillover from the UK… where the gilt yields have gone ballistic. And that has spilled over into other developed market bond markets, so there’s a bit of a ricochet effect."

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Is this real?! Is the government really naming its rearguard policy drive after a massively costly and failed US operation in Vietnam?! From today’s Playbook by @e_casalicchio https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1575011715556646912/photo/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Contact queuing on the Kazakh border for the second day says that locals have a business where they get two cars in the queue and then let people cut in between them. Selling spots for $500 and can do as many as they want. "So you get why I've been here two days," he says.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574736530371153924
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    I want to vote for a British Giorgia Meloni

    I imagine you did. His name was Nigel Farage. He and all the peabrained political Neanderthals that were gulled into thinking voting Brexit was to get "our sovereignty back". Sovereignty that we had never lost. Now we are in a position where the nation is headed toward political and economic basketcasedom. That is where populism leads. It is for extreme fuckwits who are prepared to humiliate their own country and bankrupt their own people in the cause of small minded nationalism. And for what? Nothing.

    Farage is a boring has-been who should retire now. Job done. We brexited. Yay. Now off you go Nigel, and advertise slippers

    Meloni is genuinely new and intriguing. In about a month you will realise this. You’re not one of life’s early adopters. You’re a bit of a Nigel, like @Nigelb
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    If Liz Truss wants to save her job and (far more important) avoid economic meltdown she should
    1.Sack Kwarteng.
    2. Disown and reverse last week's announcement
    3. Plead with Rishi Sunak to return as Chancellor.
    4. Restore Tom Scholar as Permanent Secretary at the Treasury.

    https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1575010975782432769
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Owls, isn't the 12 month rule applicable to a failed challenge? Could be wrong, of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Meloni is a proper firebrand

    Fine for getting elected, but a pretty useless qualification for government.
    Let’s wait and see, shall we?

    She has the instant charisma of a really talented politician. It may indeed end at electioneering. But if her talent extends into governance she could overturn the tedious EU consensus very quickly

    I have been arguing for years that the solution to illegal immigration is economic and social development in Africa, and tackling climate change. Meloni is correct on that, and that France* benefits economically from its arrangements with Africa.

    I didn't see her suggest much in the way of solutions though.

    * she didn't mention Britain, but we too shelter and launder money from African kleptocrats as well as Russian ones.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    Nigelb said:

    Against many expectations, the latest Biogen Alzheimer's drug has shown fairly strong evidence of slowing cognitive decline.

    The amyloid hypothesis has clawed its way out of the grave.

    Probably approvable by the FDA, but I seriously doubt NIHCE is going to let the NHS fund it any time soon.

    If I was worried about the cognition of - say - a PB poster, would you be able to prescribe it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, do you think MPs will actually act against Truss imminently?

    12 month rule apparently
    The '22 can change that
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,452
    Eabhal said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    how long before the IMF is accused of getting woke
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1574889428958560256

    Too late, obviously...

    Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1574876146390503424

    If you’ve reached a point where you are denouncing the City and the IMF as left wing it may be worth just taking a breath and asking yourself how right wing you have become.
    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574985311997698048

    I have criticised the Government's fiscal policy remorselessly this week.

    The first time I felt like defending them was this morning when I read that the IMF had criticised them on the grounds of what this policy means for inequality.

    That's absolutely none of their business.
    I suppose you could argue that inequality can slow economic growth. And the pressure on lower income mortgage holders is going to be intense, with no support from the government, contributing to a housing crisis?
    Except they didn't make that argument. They just said, "furthermore, this is likely to increase inequality."

    There was absolutely no need for that 'furthermore'. It was a postscript to signal their views on the policy.

    Their opinion on that is entirely irrelevant and it's not their place to give it.
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