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Starmer’s speech gets a good reception – politicalbetting.com
Starmer’s speech gets a good reception – politicalbetting.com
?The big policy announcement in @Keir_Starmer’s speech:A Labour govt will create Great British Energy. A new publicly-owned clean generation company ‘to cut energy bills and deliver energy independence for our country’.A bit like EDF in France / Vattenfall in Sweden. #Lab22 pic.twitter.com/7ylQyXbp3k
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My betting decision of the day is not to top up on lab majority. Sks is not looking like Ed mil, but he could be a Cameron looking like an easy winner but having to settle for a lib dem fudge
He did that, so mission accomplished for now. Now let the media start to build him up as the PM in waiting and don’t make any unforced errors in the next 12 months.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1574785700133847040
Money markets now pricing in a 1.5 per cent rise in interest rates at or before the next @Bankofengland meeting in Nov.
Expectations back up well above 6% next year.
All follows that speech from BoE’s Huw Pill hinting of big action to come… https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574784254361337869/photo/1
An announcement during Kwasi's speech next week would be great...
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1574782415125487617
Fact they are try so hard - TOO hard - to denegrate Starmer and all his works, is yet another sign they are FREAKING OUT.
Same as with pooh-poohing the Pound Plunge, and/or claiming it's the fault of Gordon Brown, Harold Wilson, Clement Attlee, etc., etc.
AND also Madame Whiplash?
(The authentic voice of 95%+ of the electorate, I suspect.)
On a good note: she’s no longer a Labour MP, so it shows he’s got the strength to deal with these things quickly and decisively.
Probably evens itself out.
Dull delivery though, he is no Blair or Cameron as a speaker and lacks Johnson's charisma. However Truss is little better on that score
You and @williamglenn are protesting too much and about nothing much!
CT of 30% and a series of big investment allowances on capital and R&D to bring that number down makes much more sense to me.
On NI they went further by keeping the higher threshold, it was the right thing to do but it isn't cost free.
The reason I'm so annoyed by cutting the additional rate is it shows the government has got the wrong priorities. That is a purely demand generation play, it puts tens of thousands in the hands of already pretty well of people hoping they will spend it and the lower tax rate will attract a few thousand extra workers who will also come and spend their money here.
Nowhere in the statement did they show that they were interested in boosting supply or putting in place real reform of education, training, skills and investment in capital to boost supply.
Labour has done enough, but no more than that, to make it not impossible that they can win, and likely they will at least lead next time. This owes about 90% to Tory folly and 10% to Labour getting back to routine social democratic normality.
Overreach or hubris would be equal folly. And it's hard (not impossible) to believe that the Tories will carry on as badly as this...isn't it?
Labour can lose this. The deal is not close to sealed. I think SKS promised slightly more than he should have done today.
He's never going to be a great orator. He struggles to inspire. He's not charismatic. And his jokes are both not very good and not well delivered. But he's perfectly articulate and coherent. He's improved - less wooden than previously. And he will now be compared with Truss, not Johnson.
On substance, it was absolutely fine. It contained a very good critique of the current (and previous) governments' shortcomings. It set out a clear agenda for change, and had enough policy ideas to build on in the run up to the GE. And, most of all, it provided evidence of a united Labour Party that is determined to seize power. The dissidents are at best enthused, and at worst silenced.
Finally, I think 'Great British Energy', in public ownership, is a big winner.
Its not a good look
Even to distract from the shambles that is currently passes for "Conservative" government!
https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-had-to-be-convinced-to-issue-govt-statement-to-calm-markets-after-meeting-with-chancellor-12706352
This government is entirely unhinged from any kind of reality.
I think she should be let back in after a suitable apology and a period of time - say a month. But I would love to hear her in a debate with someone about *exactly* what she meant - as I think it's a common view in some circles.
"If you're the Chancellor, what you've done is crashed the bond markets, the foreign exchange markets, the stock market has dropped, the housing market is in trouble and you create a giant recession... I've never seen such raging incompetence, ever."
https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1574785962483355648/video/1
Anyone know - @rcs1000, @Malmesbury, @Richard_Tyndall, other techies?
FFS.
So called "supply side" economics originating in the US with Reagan was basically borrowing money and cutting taxes, too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63042145 https://twitter.com/rupahuq/status/1574791834248876038
Tbf how do we know that are not pumping in air?
My guess would be that the specialised pumps and other infrastructure are optimised for pumping the gas, not air. And they would need to ensure that people at the other end of the pipeline were not taking it, assuming it was gas. Probably wrong, though.
Invading Ukraine was f***ing mental.
Thinking sham referenda would change anything was f***ing mental.
Denying a retreat from Kherson his own commanders felt was required was f***ing mental.
What's a few thousand more dead Russian conscripts, on top of all the other f***ing mental things he has done?
But maybe there's hope for even you yet, if you can start to see that yes Putin is f***ing mental and he is the bad guy in this, not Ukraine, not NATO, not Zelensky and not Azov or anyone else.
Indeed, it's arguable that the ideal scenario for the next GE would be one in which the Conservatives end up as the largest single party, Labour has to rely on both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats for support, and Starmer ends up being dragged kicking and screaming into legislating for electoral reform. A broadly proportional voting system would probably prevent the Conservative Party from ever winning a majority again, and would make it hard for it to return to power full stop for so long as it represents the interests of multi-millionaires, elderly homeowners and no-one else.
When right does it, it's far-sighted and positive; when left does it, it's fiscally irresponsible.
Same as with equating your party with "the people"; when left does it, it's fascism; when right does it, it's patriotism.
https://news.sky.com/story/pound-slumps-live-news-lenders-withdraw-mortgage-products-as-sir-keir-starmer-prepares-to-tell-voters-labour-stands-for-sound-money-in-conference-speech-12615118
Compare and contrast with some of Boris Johnson's utterances.
✈️ Virgin’s Shai Weiss: govt should ‘reverse course’
✈️ Willie Walsh: ‘I am not sure all these policies were thought through’
✈️ Michael O’Leary: Budget has ‘poured petrol on a bonfire’
https://www.ft.com/content/9bd2e7e6-5bae-425d-be24-7a7b95b263fb
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/analysis-no-drama-starmer-leaves-labour-activists-dreaming-of-power_uk_63331375e4b03e8038b75f8b
If you can get confirmation that AEP and Prof Peston are opposed too, then we can move forward with confidence.
It won't hurt him but it reminds voters the Labour Party are still as much of a clown show as other parties of equivalent value
It is also far better to have a higher corporation tax to pay for better relief on investment.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxrNtWujLhGn4em5W8Qkp3kvMfXgl97Ie7
Imagine you're Kwasi Kwarteng: you've got strident views about economic policy and you even wrote a book about it. you finally get the job as chancellor, the peak of your game, and get to test out your ideas! turns out they are garbage and the economy explodes
@andrew_lilico
The economy hasn't done anything yet.
Reminder...
@andrew_lilico
In John McDonnell's run-on-the-pound wargames, how much did UK mortgage rates go up & how many households were forced into mortgage default?
If say they bring Rishi back... it wouldn't work as the number 1 priority is tax cuts not having a solid economy.
The LDs would normally be kingmakers, as 2010 showed they can go with the Tories as much as Labour. A Corbyn Left Party would emerge with seats which Labour would need to do deals with along with the Greens to have any hope of government and a Farage Nationalist party too would also win seats with which the Tories would also eventually have to probably do deals
If you wish to try and play with this from a policy perspective you could look at giving accelerated tax breaks for longer term investment. Or you could try and tax them until the pips squeak and kill off innovation and investment and ensure it goes to places such as Ireland where they may find more healthy environment for wealth creators. The latter approach is most in favour with members and supporters of the Labour Party.
The GB energy proposal will be universally popular and is just one of those things that feels right for the times we live in. Supporting a massive push on insulation and energy efficiency is also timely. Nationalising what's left of privatised rail is less exciting to be honest.
The other supply side reform someone needs to promise - either Labour or the Lib Dems - is something on pre-school childcare. Probably the single biggest blocker to more people in prime working age entering or re-entering the labour market. The Tory proposal (is it still out there) to lift the ratio of kids to staff is one small drop in the ocean but they need only look at state support for childcare in Scandinavia or France to see how his contributes directly to labour market participation and productivity.
I think Greek/Italian bonds are currently where they are because the market expects that the ECB will treat the Russian invasion / energy crisis, like they did the Eurozone crisis and the pandemic crisis. Basically: their view is that the ECB will always find a crisis to justify intervention.
More years of staycations it is then.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-mp-rupa-huq-suspended-from-party-for-calling-chancellor-kwasi-kwarteng-superficially-black/ar-AA12iU7U?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=69e6ef36532f4b7fafb5364bb2ac0984
He seems to have some fairly strong views about what defines fascist/Nazi.
I agree with Starmer's action and it's good if, as reported, she's apologised.
A better and more believable slogan would be "We will try not to be as shit as the other lot"
If Labour propose that and fund it with some tax on old people they'll get my vote (and my wife's!).
The expression he used is neo fascist, and also has repulsive overtones of the Irish troubles. This is not to say he is neo fascist himself. He is just behaving in a dim, manipulative and opportunist way in trying to attract a bit of the Blair magic to himself without really thinking about it. This is a disappointment for the non right who were contemplating voting for him.
See the difference? Probably not.
Utter rage. Homeowners so so angry, never thought I’d see a Tory government do that