UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
A second win on the bounce for Dale Benkenstein’s side wouldn’t be enough to save them from the drop, but would mean ending the season on a high as attentions turn to bouncing straight back up from Division Two next season.
Sounds like they have already worked out the Strauss review is going nowhere...
Hard to get a Handel on what's going to happen. Sure if they do drop, they'll be Bach.
I think that they are on a Haydn to nothing myself.
They failed to parry the enormous number of questions they were asked.
They were quite clearly cruising fauré bruising.
Their own fault, they are the ones whose actions with the Hundred saw the feathers Duruflé in the first place.
If they don't want their feathers ruffled, they should stay inside the Byrd Cage.
It took me 4 minutes and 33 seconds to work that one out
I look forward to hearing a full length piece from you.
This is just a prelude?
Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun?
That's more of a fugue.
Truth is I like Phillip Glass music, some of it is very beautiful, like facades and closing. It’s all about the inflection in the music isn’t it - Is this really as minimalist as Steve Reich? When we done a video of our art exhibition it was my idea to use facades.
I’m suspecting you had a hand in the advert? How does “life out of balance” (technology v environment) go hand in hand with promoting an energy company?
You're full of surprises! (and very knowledgable). I more or less stole the idea from Koyaanisqatsi (Life out of Balance). The agency thought it a masterstroke. A happy accident.
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Italian seat calculator. From this, I reckon the final pre election polls have to be 13-14 points wrong on the gap between right and centre-left to deny the former an overall majority.
Andrea if you're about why do the polls close so late in Italy? 11pm v 6pm Germany, 8pm France, Spain, Sweden etc. Guessing it's a hangover from when it used to be Sunday + Monday morning voting? UK closes earlier and we vote on a weekday!
And also you have one vote for each house (Chamber & Senate) but each vote counts for both the FPTP and PR results so you don't have separate FPTP and PR ballots as you would in Germany or Scotland?
Thanks
Historically we used to vote until 10 pm. Then, yes, during Berlusconi years, he added Monday voting until 5pm. Now they got rid of Monday but extended Sundays to 11pm.
The Italians like electing a party that promises the world and fails to deliver and have been doing this for the last 70 years .
The latest flavour of the month is the Brothers of Italy who will likely go the same way as the previous peddlers of telling everyone what they want to hear .
Two of the right wing coalition partners Legia and the Brothers have made efforts to look more pro EU and as much as the UKs right wing trash papers will try and portray their win as the next step to Italexit there is zero chance of this especially as Italy is in line for a shed load of money from the EU recovery fund and the parties have dropped their anti EU/ Euro stance .
The third partner Forza have always been pro EU so for those in the UK hoping for some company on Brexit Island the wait goes on !
A second win on the bounce for Dale Benkenstein’s side wouldn’t be enough to save them from the drop, but would mean ending the season on a high as attentions turn to bouncing straight back up from Division Two next season.
Sounds like they have already worked out the Strauss review is going nowhere...
Hard to get a Handel on what's going to happen. Sure if they do drop, they'll be Bach.
I think that they are on a Haydn to nothing myself.
They failed to parry the enormous number of questions they were asked.
They were quite clearly cruising fauré bruising.
Their own fault, they are the ones whose actions with the Hundred saw the feathers Duruflé in the first place.
If they don't want their feathers ruffled, they should stay inside the Byrd Cage.
It took me 4 minutes and 33 seconds to work that one out
I look forward to hearing a full length piece from you.
This is just a prelude?
Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun?
That's more of a fugue.
Truth is I like Phillip Glass music, some of it is very beautiful, like facades and closing. It’s all about the inflection in the music isn’t it - Is this really as minimalist as Steve Reich? When we done a video of our art exhibition it was my idea to use facades.
I’m suspecting you had a hand in the advert? How does “life out of balance” (technology v environment) go hand in hand with promoting an energy company?
You're full of surprises! (and very knowledgable). I more or less stole the idea from Koyaanisqatsi (Life out of Balance). The agency thought it a masterstroke. A happy accident.
But it’s all wrong though, to use life out of balance - urban life and technology v environment - to sell an energy company? Isn’t it?
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September, Changes w/ 11 September.
Looking forward to Moon and G overanalysing the reverse of this midterm poll, telling us in great detail why the Tories are leading Labour by 12 points.
The Labour Party are surging ahead in the polls after Sir Keir Starmer pledged to reverse the Government’s “wrongheaded” income tax cut for people earning more than £150,000.
The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 7,000 people shows Labour 12 points ahead of the Tories as their annual party conference kicks off in Liverpool.
The Labour Party are surging ahead in the polls after Sir Keir Starmer pledged to reverse the Government’s “wrongheaded” income tax cut for people earning more than £150,000.
The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 7,000 people shows Labour 12 points ahead of the Tories as their annual party conference kicks off in Liverpool.
I like how they try and conflate a 9 day old poll with something announced today, lol
Heading to Blair levels. Is it an outlier? Or sea change?
Paul Mason @paulmasonnews · 1h Labour's @Keir_Starmer is making the same stump speech in room after room of activists. Theme: we're ready to govern - and he's getting presidential-style response...
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to secure a 56-seat majority in the House of Commons, exclusive polling by Savanta for LabourList revealed today. We explored that research at our 2022 Labour Party conference fringe event this afternoon.
Presenting the findings to members today, Savanta political research director Chris Hopkins commented that the these results would be a “redrawing of the electoral map” and would see Labour take “some real scalps” from the Tories – including defence secretary Ben Wallace, and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
According to the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, commissioned by LabourList and carried out by Savanta, Labour would secure 353 seats in parliament – an increase of 154 – while the Conservatives would lose 146 and return just 211 MPs.
Savanta found a 12-point lead for Labour, with 45% of people reporting that they would back Keir Starmer’s party in a general election compared to 33% who said the same of the Conservatives.
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to secure a 56-seat majority in the House of Commons, exclusive polling by Savanta for LabourList revealed today. We explored that research at our 2022 Labour Party conference fringe event this afternoon.
Presenting the findings to members today, Savanta political research director Chris Hopkins commented that the these results would be a “redrawing of the electoral map” and would see Labour take “some real scalps” from the Tories – including defence secretary Ben Wallace, and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
According to the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, commissioned by LabourList and carried out by Savanta, Labour would secure 353 seats in parliament – an increase of 154 – while the Conservatives would lose 146 and return just 211 MPs.
Savanta found a 12-point lead for Labour, with 45% of people reporting that they would back Keir Starmer’s party in a general election compared to 33% who said the same of the Conservatives.
Checking out Italian TV election coverage through an app I have. Their equivalent of BBC One and a big commercial channel seem to have special editions of political talk shows rather than treating it as a news event.
I can't imagine a special combined edition of Politics Live and Question Time would go down well as an election show here.
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to secure a 56-seat majority in the House of Commons, exclusive polling by Savanta for LabourList revealed today. We explored that research at our 2022 Labour Party conference fringe event this afternoon.
Presenting the findings to members today, Savanta political research director Chris Hopkins commented that the these results would be a “redrawing of the electoral map” and would see Labour take “some real scalps” from the Tories – including defence secretary Ben Wallace, and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
According to the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, commissioned by LabourList and carried out by Savanta, Labour would secure 353 seats in parliament – an increase of 154 – while the Conservatives would lose 146 and return just 211 MPs.
Savanta found a 12-point lead for Labour, with 45% of people reporting that they would back Keir Starmer’s party in a general election compared to 33% who said the same of the Conservatives.
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Pound's down against Euro too.
Fuck me that’s bad 😦
2 tenths of a cent. Its minimal movement on low trading levels
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Pound's down against Euro too.
I was getting 1.19 a few weeks ago now they're offering 1.10. Not great for people with property in the eurozone unless you want to sell of course.
Heading to Blair levels. Is it an outlier? Or sea change?
It's the first 45% for Labour this Parliament, so a given that it is an outlier, but also suggestive of a trend. Lib Dems low again, possibly suggestive that the electorate have decided a majority Labour government's okay, and they don't need to hedge with a third-party choice.
Conference season now, though. May as well wait until we're back on GMT before coming to any conclusions.
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Pound's down against Euro too.
Fuck me that’s bad 😦
2 tenths of a cent. Its minimal movement on low trading levels
, only doots to you Woolie, but to concedde anything to the yo-yo just should not happen.
You know every joke about Euro comes with a 25 bp rate increase?
Well per the Charity Commission, for the financial year ending 31 March 2021, the RSPB income of £118m included £1m in government grants and £15m of government contracts. If you campaign against the government, you should not use public money to do so. That's £16m of savings for JRM.
Brothers of Italy 22-26% Democratic Party 17-21% M5S 13.5-17.5% Lega 8.5-12.5% Forza Italia 6-8% Calenda/Renzi 6.5-8.5% Green/Left 3-5% +Euroe 2.5-4.5% Italeix 0.5-2.5%
Let us assume, for a moment, that Sterling continues to slide.
The BoE call an emergency meeting and raise interest rates.
How does Truss rescue her premiership?
Can she sack Kwasi?
Can he announce a reversal of his "fiscal event" ?
You are just being silly now. Truss explained throughout her campaign , managed by Kwarzi, coolness with high interest rates, in fact their line is they should have gone up there already.
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September, Changes w/ 11 September.
I prefer the YG one with the Tories on 23
Truss is totally useless and out of touch
So, no longer voting Tory?
I have never voted Tory.
If Johnson had more progressive policies than SKS it was a (still unlikely) possibility in 2024.
However now the Tories have gone further to the right than Genghis Khan I will definitely vote either Green or LD (which was always the most likely outcome in a Boris vs SKS GE anyway
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September, Changes w/ 11 September.
I prefer the YG one with the Tories on 23
Truss is totally useless and out of touch
So, no longer voting Tory?
I have never voted Tory.
If Johnson had more progressive policies than SKS it was a (still unlikely) possibility in 2024.
However now the Tories have gone further to the right than Genghis Khan I will definitely vote either Green or LD (which was always the most likely outcome in a Boris vs SKS GE anyway
Hope that helps.
The fact you were going to vote for Johnson is hilarious. You are no leftie mate
Heading to Blair levels. Is it an outlier? Or sea change?
I'd still expect it to end up much closer, but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility when the government is taking huge gambles and there is much economic pain still to be felt. That it is a result of Labour being high and not just Tories low is important.
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September, Changes w/ 11 September.
I prefer the YG one with the Tories on 23
Truss is totally useless and out of touch
So, no longer voting Tory?
I have never voted Tory.
If Johnson had more progressive policies than SKS it was a (still unlikely) possibility in 2024.
However now the Tories have gone further to the right than Genghis Khan I will definitely vote either Green or LD (which was always the most likely outcome in a Boris vs SKS GE anyway
Hope that helps.
No, it doesn’t help. If you are in a Tory / Lab swing seat.
Heading to Blair levels. Is it an outlier? Or sea change?
It's the first 45% for Labour this Parliament, so a given that it is an outlier, but also suggestive of a trend. Lib Dems low again, possibly suggestive that the electorate have decided a majority Labour government's okay, and they don't need to hedge with a third-party choice.
Conference season now, though. May as well wait until we're back on GMT before coming to any conclusions.
Im not sure you can say 45 is suggestive of a trend. The seven polls conducted since this one have Labour on 39 to 42.
A second win on the bounce for Dale Benkenstein’s side wouldn’t be enough to save them from the drop, but would mean ending the season on a high as attentions turn to bouncing straight back up from Division Two next season.
Sounds like they have already worked out the Strauss review is going nowhere...
Hard to get a Handel on what's going to happen. Sure if they do drop, they'll be Bach.
I think that they are on a Haydn to nothing myself.
They failed to parry the enormous number of questions they were asked.
They were quite clearly cruising fauré bruising.
Their own fault, they are the ones whose actions with the Hundred saw the feathers Duruflé in the first place.
If they don't want their feathers ruffled, they should stay inside the Byrd Cage.
It took me 4 minutes and 33 seconds to work that one out
I look forward to hearing a full length piece from you.
This is just a prelude?
Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun?
That's more of a fugue.
Truth is I like Phillip Glass music, some of it is very beautiful, like facades and closing. It’s all about the inflection in the music isn’t it - Is this really as minimalist as Steve Reich? When we done a video of our art exhibition it was my idea to use facades.
I’m suspecting you had a hand in the advert? How does “life out of balance” (technology v environment) go hand in hand with promoting an energy company?
You're full of surprises! (and very knowledgable). I more or less stole the idea from Koyaanisqatsi (Life out of Balance). The agency thought it a masterstroke. A happy accident.
But it’s all wrong though, to use life out of balance - urban life and technology v environment - to sell an energy company? Isn’t it?
Have you no sense of shame?
Certainly have. That's why I had to charge £6000 a day.
Brothers of Italy 22-26% Democratic Party 17-21% M5S 13.5-17.5% Lega 8.5-12.5% Forza Italia 6-8% Calenda/Renzi 6.5-8.5% Green/Left 3-5% +Euroe 2.5-4.5% Italeix 0.5-2.5%
What happened that caused Lega to be eclipsed so much?
The reasons are not clear. It is in one sense simply a continuation of the long term devaluation which started in the 1970s. But the one common explanation you find for the current fall is: geopolitical uncertainty, ie the war in Ukraine. We have a sea border with Russia and we are not friendly neighbours. Any tactical nuclear strike on, for example Lvov, could easily depress the entire region, even if it didn’t lead to a global nuclear conflict.
I note that calls are once again being made for us to join the Euro. Finland is a member, as is Denmark de facto (pegged).
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
Pound's down against Euro too.
Fuck me that’s bad 😦
2 tenths of a cent. Its minimal movement on low trading levels
Yes. But over two cents since the Not Budget. It isn't Dollar strength, it's pound weakness
UPDATE: Currency trading has begun in Asian markets and the pound is down another half cent vs the dollar. Below $1.08. Small fall compared with what we saw on Fri but v much NOT the direction the govt would have liked to see. Could be a bumpy week. Hold tight... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574122578473525250/photo/1
But To be fair. as Big G off pointed out, it’s strength of dollar not weakness of pound if all other currencies like €uro struggling against dollar as well. You can’t really make a point here without flagging up weakness of euro against dollar and strength of pound against euro for proper all round perspective.
What on earth makes you think he wants to give a proper all-round perspective?
Whilst it is a big majority to overturn in one electoral term, and it is certainly usual for oppositions to be ahead midterm (unless you are the great Corbyn), I think it is fair to say that Labour currently look confident and assured (in part from not doing policy anymore than they have to), whilst the Tories look completely in a panic (due to their almost desperate urgency in changing economic direction and repudiating everything they'd previously done economically).
The Labour Party are surging ahead in the polls after Sir Keir Starmer pledged to reverse the Government’s “wrongheaded” income tax cut for people earning more than £150,000.
The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 7,000 people shows Labour 12 points ahead of the Tories as their annual party conference kicks off in Liverpool.
I like how they try and conflate a 9 day old poll with something announced today, lol
You are right. It is desperate spin.
On PB we notice events actually often take days or weeks to move polls. Polling this week and next won’t even have last weeks budget fully moving it one way to tother let alone allow crazy spin you just flagged up. Oxygen of publicity should also artificially inflate Labour this week, will anyone salivating by poll rise acknowledge that?
A second win on the bounce for Dale Benkenstein’s side wouldn’t be enough to save them from the drop, but would mean ending the season on a high as attentions turn to bouncing straight back up from Division Two next season.
Sounds like they have already worked out the Strauss review is going nowhere...
Hard to get a Handel on what's going to happen. Sure if they do drop, they'll be Bach.
I think that they are on a Haydn to nothing myself.
They failed to parry the enormous number of questions they were asked.
They were quite clearly cruising fauré bruising.
Their own fault, they are the ones whose actions with the Hundred saw the feathers Duruflé in the first place.
If they don't want their feathers ruffled, they should stay inside the Byrd Cage.
It took me 4 minutes and 33 seconds to work that one out
I look forward to hearing a full length piece from you.
This is just a prelude?
Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun? Would you like my Phillip Glass pun?
That's more of a fugue.
Truth is I like Phillip Glass music, some of it is very beautiful, like facades and closing. It’s all about the inflection in the music isn’t it - Is this really as minimalist as Steve Reich? When we done a video of our art exhibition it was my idea to use facades.
I’m suspecting you had a hand in the advert? How does “life out of balance” (technology v environment) go hand in hand with promoting an energy company?
You're full of surprises! (and very knowledgable). I more or less stole the idea from Koyaanisqatsi (Life out of Balance). The agency thought it a masterstroke. A happy accident.
But it’s all wrong though, to use life out of balance - urban life and technology v environment - to sell an energy company? Isn’t it?
Have you no sense of shame?
He is in advertising...was it a rhetorical question?
I don’t see the point of banning polling two weeks out from the elections in Italy . I can understand a few days but it does some over the top to have that two week gap . It does look like Five Star have done better than the polls suggested and the right won’t get a super majority .
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September, Changes w/ 11 September.
Looking forward to Moon and G overanalysing the reverse of this midterm poll, telling us in great detail why the Tories are leading Labour by 12 points.
No one plays it more straighter on polls than me. This is a betting site you know. 😤
What we have Anablob, since Truss coronation an opinion poll graph currently with a clear uptick Truss bounce, the mechanics of which explained by Mike Smithson, where Tory % dropped it was losing supporters to don’t know, now this has been reversed by Truss for the Tory move to mid 30s in some polling - up five on previous comres from 30 so arguably still honeymoon built into new 12 point lead poll.
Yes so I was a bit wrong, I pushed there would be no Truss up tick because she been in governments for a decade, so voters would wait for improvement, not expect it.
However, what the table ALSO shows is since Truss became leader, Labour have yet to drop into the 30s, Liz also seems to firm up Labour support, those starting to flirt with Labour this year seem to have firmed up with him, of her or him for Downing Street.
When it comes to polling, % trend is just as important to watch as gap between parties.
But unless it is just a short term thing, the change in polling brought by Liz Truss is Labour support firming up and growing at expense of Libdem and green. Hence LLG if anything a tad down but with strong Labour %.
In April of this year, my family went to the DC area for a six night holiday. We rented a three bedroom house over the river in Arlington, and very close to a supermarket and the Metro.
We spent $140/night for the four of us. We got cereal and tea and milk (and a bottle of red wine) for a few tens of dollars from the Giant supermarket over the road.
We went to the Air & Space Museum and a ton of galleries. I also rented a car for three days ($80/day on Turo) so we could visit friends in Virginia and to see some battlefields outisde the city. We also ate out almost every evening. Mostly we walked or took the Metro, but we probably also took a few Ubers.
Our total expense, pre-flights, was in the $2-2,500 range. But that is for four of us. And I wasn't noticeably skimping. So not cheap. But not the bare minimum £5k for two that was posited earlier.
Cheapest hotel in downtown washington dc i can see in october is around £270 a night with average around £420. Bear in mind prices have likely inflated considerably since April
Why would you stay in an overpriced place inside DC, if you can stay someplace less expensive (but same basic level) in MD or VA burbs?
Comments
LAB: 45% (+3)
CON: 33% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 4% (+1)
REF: 3% (=)
Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September,
Changes w/ 11 September.
@rec777777 @CARogersNo1 @BBCNews
The pound fell yesterday against every currency on the planet including the Ruble.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1573631769508724737/photo/1
You make everything groovy, wild thing
Wild thing, I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
All think tanks and institutions are left wing and wrong.
The markets are left wing and wrong.
The Pound isn't actually falling its the Dollar's fault.
This is how you lose in a landslide, I would like to thank you for your work in delivering the next Labour Government
https://tg24.sky.it/politica/elezioni/seggiometro-composizione-parlamento
The latest flavour of the month is the Brothers of Italy who will likely go the same way as the previous peddlers of telling everyone what they want to hear .
Two of the right wing coalition partners Legia and the Brothers have made efforts to look more pro EU and as much as the UKs right wing trash papers will try and portray their win as the next step to Italexit there is zero chance of this especially as Italy is in line for a shed load of money from the EU recovery fund and the parties have dropped their anti EU/ Euro stance .
The third partner Forza have always been pro EU so for those in the UK hoping for some company on Brexit Island the wait goes on !
Have you no sense of shame?
LAB 45% (+3)
CON: 33% (-2)
via
@SavantaComRes
, 7k sample
Chgs. w/ 11 Sep
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1573936737814220800?s=20&t=TIJ0JLnqJ3hI6fFxjFqxSA
The Labour Party are surging ahead in the polls after Sir Keir Starmer pledged to reverse the Government’s “wrongheaded” income tax cut for people earning more than £150,000.
The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 7,000 people shows Labour 12 points ahead of the Tories as their annual party conference kicks off in Liverpool.
@paulmasonnews
·
1h
Labour's
@Keir_Starmer
is making the same stump speech in room after room of activists. Theme: we're ready to govern - and he's getting presidential-style response...
Presenting the findings to members today, Savanta political research director Chris Hopkins commented that the these results would be a “redrawing of the electoral map” and would see Labour take “some real scalps” from the Tories – including defence secretary Ben Wallace, and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
According to the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, commissioned by LabourList and carried out by Savanta, Labour would secure 353 seats in parliament – an increase of 154 – while the Conservatives would lose 146 and return just 211 MPs.
Savanta found a 12-point lead for Labour, with 45% of people reporting that they would back Keir Starmer’s party in a general election compared to 33% who said the same of the Conservatives.
https://labourlist.org/2022/09/labour-set-to-take-some-real-scalps-from-conservatives-pollster-suggests/
Keir Starmer, the most successful Labour leader since 1997.
Truss is totally useless and out of touch
But YOU have stood up for wildlife. In your hundreds of thousands. Because YOU care. And you are being heard. Thank you, all of you. 🙏❤🌍
But there’s more to do … (short!) thread 1/4
https://twitter.com/rspbengland/status/1574088113990909952?s=46&t=0dcSUy6bKsyYnm-m0fgX3Q
I can't imagine a special combined edition of Politics Live and Question Time would go down well as an election show here.
“Joe Biden last week:
“We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out.”
Keir Starmer today:
“I would grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out””
And to think Biden got in trouble once copying from Neil Kinnock!
Conference season now, though. May as well wait until we're back on GMT before coming to any conclusions.
The BoE call an emergency meeting and raise interest rates.
How does Truss rescue her premiership?
Can she sack Kwasi?
Can he announce a reversal of his "fiscal event" ?
You know every joke about Euro comes with a 25 bp rate increase?
Broadly in line
M5S up cf pre polling
PD and FdI marginally down
But I’m your scenario, I think Truss is shackled to Kwasi and vice versa. They come as a pair.
Senate
Right 111-131 seats
PD and allies 33-53
M5S 14-34
Calenda-Renzi 4-12
House
Right 227-257
PD and allies 78-98
M5S 36-56
Calenda-Renzi 15-25
Lists for Senate
Brothers of Italy 22-26%
Democratic Party 17-21%
M5S 13.5-17.5%
Lega 8.5-12.5%
Forza Italia 6-8%
Calenda/Renzi 6.5-8.5%
Green/Left 3-5%
+Euroe 2.5-4.5%
Italeix 0.5-2.5%
If Johnson had more progressive policies than SKS it was a (still unlikely) possibility in 2024.
However now the Tories have gone further to the right than Genghis Khan I will definitely vote either Green or LD (which was always the most likely outcome in a Boris vs SKS GE anyway
Hope that helps.
Bring in Owen Jones, he'll quickly reverse that
If you are in a Tory / Lab swing seat.
I told you this all months ago.
Brothers of Italy 23-27%
Democratic Party 18-22
M5S 13.5-17.5%
Lega 9.5-13.5%
Forza Italia 6-8%
Green/Left 3-4%
+Europe 2-3%
Same story
Right 42%
PD and friends 28.3%
M5S 16.4%
Calenda/Renzi 7.2%
Mail shows Tory desperation.
The country is quite fucked and has been quite fucked for as long as I can remember.
Italy is not going to Quitaly, and Meloni is even anti-Putin.
I note that calls are once again being made for us to join the Euro. Finland is a member, as is Denmark de facto (pegged).
FdI 23.5 (about -1.5 on pre election average)
PD 20.3 (-1)
M5S 16.4 (+3)
Lega 9.6 (-3)
Others not yet displayed.
A couple more points for someone else, but suggests Right bloc around 43, Left bloc around 27.
Forza Italia 7.5
Green Left 4.1
+Europe 2.9
Renzi-Calenda 7.2
Italexit 2.5
On PB we notice events actually often take days or weeks to move polls. Polling this week and next won’t even have last weeks budget fully moving it one way to tother let alone allow crazy spin you just flagged up. Oxygen of publicity should also artificially inflate Labour this week, will anyone salivating by poll rise acknowledge that?
Nice line.......
“Nato sotto Mussolini non vorrei morire sotto la Meloni. Che Dio ci aiuti”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/25/italy-general-election-2022-results-live-giorgia-meloni-latest-news
What we have Anablob, since Truss coronation an opinion poll graph currently with a clear uptick Truss bounce, the mechanics of which explained by Mike Smithson, where Tory % dropped it was losing supporters to don’t know, now this has been reversed by Truss for the Tory move to mid 30s in some polling - up five on previous comres from 30 so arguably still honeymoon built into new 12 point lead poll.
Yes so I was a bit wrong, I pushed there would be no Truss up tick because she been in governments for a decade, so voters would wait for improvement, not expect it.
However, what the table ALSO shows is since Truss became leader, Labour have yet to drop into the 30s, Liz also seems to firm up Labour support, those starting to flirt with Labour this year seem to have firmed up with him, of her or him for Downing Street.
When it comes to polling, % trend is just as important to watch as gap between parties.
But unless it is just a short term thing, the change in polling brought by Liz Truss is Labour support firming up and growing at expense of Libdem and green. Hence LLG if anything a tad down but with strong Labour %.
Any complaints in my analysis from this weekend?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tgj3nZWtOfA