Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The reality for lower income people vs people earning £155k and over – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • kle4 said:

    That was likely anyway. 13-14 years in power is a lot, and chances would be if losing at that point you'll be out for some time.
    I concede that and it looks very likely they will lose office but 2 years is a long time so very likely but not a done deal for labour yet
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    edited September 2022

    No, the purpose is to avoid having words put in his mouth.
    You were the one who described it as Clintonian, not me. Clinton was evading the truth, giving a response he knew would mislead people as to what he could then claim to have meant, even though no one would define things in such a way normally.

    If you are arguing Kwarteng was behaving in a similar way that's your choice.
  • HYUFD said:

    Most of the hard left in Scotland went to the SNP or Greens or Tommy Sheridan long ago. Most SLab voters now are centrist or centre left Unionists
    PB Scotch expertise at its very best.
  • On paper, so are the Tories.
    Take, for example, social care, and the 3% defence commitment.

    My point is that you actually don’t have a clue about Labour spending plans, and your querulous nonsense about their having questions to answer just makes you look like a Tory stooge.
    If you think labour should be given a free pass then that is naive and I will continue to pose questions that are relevant
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I understand Labour paying attention to the 45p change but there is a danger in focusing on this too much. What they should really be pointing to is the fall in sterling, the rise in government borrowing and the absence of a medium term plan with figures from the OBR.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1574033618091085824?t=ubomXhb02P41XW0PLUFGhg&s=19

    Lab 45 (+3)
    Con 33 (-2)

    Not sure whether pre or post Special Financial Operation. 7000 asked.

    Not much of a bounce for Ms Truss.

    Annoying when they don’t show the other parties’ numbers so I can’t do LLG. The accompanying article is paywalled too.

    But Comres are fairly Lab+ Green- and 45+33+presumably 5% for SNP only leaves 17% for the rest so implies something like LD 10%, Green 4%, Refuk 2% other 1%, thus LLG roughly 58-60%.

    Anyone have the full scores?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056

    I understand Labour paying attention to the 45p change but there is a danger in focusing on this too much. What they should really be pointing to is the fall in sterling, the rise in government borrowing and the absence of a medium term plan with figures from the OBR.

    I agree. The 45p thing is a distraction - it has been lower before, and I don't think people regard the current rate as as morally inviolable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674

    I don’t think anyone seriously believes the £150k rate cut will “drive more jobs”.

    As you’ve pointed out in other posts, there are other measures that would be much more effective there.

    No, this was conceived as a symbol of intent.
    Indeed, there’s evidence that Kwasi-Truss considered this some kind of “gotcha” policy to shock and awe.

    Sadly the only shock was in the currency and gilt markets.
    I have a thread idea on rentseeking and why it's destroying the UK economy and causing a break down of society but I haven't got the time of energy to write it. Sad.
  • I understand Labour paying attention to the 45p change but there is a danger in focusing on this too much. What they should really be pointing to is the fall in sterling, the rise in government borrowing and the absence of a medium term plan with figures from the OBR.

    Actually politically labour are right to centre on the 45% change as it has handed them an enormous prize and the rest the public just do not understand and glaze over
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    DavidL said:

    George Osborne always made a point of saying that those with the broadest shoulders had to carry the heaviest load. He was right. I supported this through the removal of my personal allowances, the removal of my child benefit and the fiscal drag caused by bands not keeping with inflation, all at the time that a signifcant number of people were being taken out of tax altogether by the increase in personal allowances and the minimum wage was rising considerably faster than inflation.

    This was modern, pragmatic, compassionate Conservatism and I had do problem with it. In contrast Kwarteng's budget is divisive, attacks the poor, rewards the rich and reduces the income available to government at a time when we are already spending far more than is being taken in tax and are promising to spend an absolute fortune on subsidising heating bills.

    The contention is that this will boost growth. I will be delighted if I am wrong about this but I really don't see it. Cuts in tax for the much higher paid tend to improve the savings ratio (not a bad thing in itself) but do not have anything like the multiplier effects that additional income for those living hand to mouth do. We might attract back the odd banker from Dublin or Paris but not enough to make much of a difference. I do not think that CT rates are key to DFI, there is a long list of things that are more important. The investment zones seems a rebranding of the enterprise zones we have tried before with minimal success.

    I really want the UK to succeed. I want our people to enjoy a more comfortable life. I want good, well funded, public services and I desperately want a private sector successful enough to fund them. I remain to be persuaded that this budget is the answer or even a step in the right direction. I very much hope that I am wrong.

    Excellent post, David. But I’m afraid you’re giving them too much benefit of the doubt and getting hoodwinked by the distributional issue.

    The thing that really matters is the fiscal trajectory from here. Truss and Kwarteng’s plan is more tax cuts, fairly soon, focused on those lower down the income scale.

    Deficit be damned.

    They’re totally wrecking the public finances. That’s their explicit plan.

    Try to win the election, then they’ll start banging on about balancing the books by slashing the state.

    It’s thoroughly dishonest and irresponsible government. If I were a Tory, this is the thing I’d be ashamed about.

    Do the tories on this site support this plan? Because that’s what you’re going to be defending at the next election.

    Wreck the public finances, needlessly indebt the next generation, attempt to win an election, slash the state. That is the agenda you are explicitly supporting when you pay your membership fee and you cast your vote.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    kle4 said:

    With that kind of ballsiness I'm surprised he was not promoted before now.
    Tories cant even be bothered to pretend to care anymore . Now just an asset grab for those at top
  • MaxPB said:

    I have a thread idea on rentseeking and why it's destroying the UK economy and causing a break down of society but I haven't got the time of energy to write it. Sad.
    Haha. Me too.
    Send me the bullets!
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    ping said:

    Excellent post, David. But I’m afraid you’re giving them too much benefit of the doubt.

    The thing that really matters is the fiscal trajectory from here. Truss and Kwarteng’s plan is more tax cuts, fairly soon, focused on those lower down the income scale.

    Deficit be damned.

    They’re totally wrecking the public finances. That’s their explicit plan.

    Try to win the election, then they’ll start banging on about balancing the books by slashing the state.

    It’s thoroughly dishonest and irresponsible government. If I were a Tory, this is the thing I’d be ashamed about.

    Do the tories on this site support this plan? Because that’s what you’re going to be defending at the next election.

    Wreck the public finances, needlessly indebt the next generation, attempt to win an election, slash the state. That is the agenda you are explicitly supporting when you pay your membership fee and you cast your vote.
    Honestly dont think the oaps who are the tory core vote will care...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1574033618091085824?t=ubomXhb02P41XW0PLUFGhg&s=19

    Lab 45 (+3)
    Con 33 (-2)

    Not sure whether pre or post Special Financial Operation. 7000 asked.

    Not much of a bounce for Ms Truss.

    There’s a PB rule, events take two weeks to find its way into polls, so no polls for two weeks will be comment on the budget.

    Meanwhile, we can see signs Government Budget is working staggering well ALREADY, with flocks across London Bridge this weekend, into the city.


  • ...

    Shags the flag (1%/99%)
    Indeed. You can’t out-Tory the Tories, and you can’t out-flagshag the flagshaggers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    If you think labour should be given a free pass then that is naive and I will continue to pose questions that are relevant
    If the Tories can pay for it by massive public debt, then why is it wrong for Labour to do the same?

    Or is it as simple as:

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    ...

    If they do wreck the economy then they will be out of office for a long time
    Not necessarily.

    If Johnson returns after a Truss disaster, prior to the next GE as a new broom and a safe pair of hands, the Conservatives will win.

    The voters that matter seem to think that a new leader breaks continuity Conservative Governments.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Indeed. You can’t out-Tory the Tories, and you can’t out-flagshag the flagshaggers.
    As Slab found in Scotland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    There’s a PB rule, events take two weeks to find its way into polls, so no polls for two weeks will be comment on the budget.

    Meanwhile, we can see signs Government Budget is working staggering well ALREADY, with flocks across London Bridge this weekend, into the city.


    Lambs to the slaughter?
  • There’s a PB rule, events take two weeks to find its way into polls, so no polls for two weeks will be comment on the budget.

    Meanwhile, we can see signs Government Budget is working staggering well ALREADY, with flocks across London Bridge this weekend, into the city.


    They look like experts in buying the dip.
  • There’s a PB rule, events take two weeks to find its way into polls, so no polls for two weeks will be comment on the budget.

    Meanwhile, we can see signs Government Budget is working staggering well ALREADY, with flocks across London Bridge this weekend, into the city.


    As details of that NZ trade deal finally emerge…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751

    They look like experts in buying the dip.
    I'm confused. I thought that the Labour party conference is in Liverpool. What are they doing in London?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Long lines of vehicles were seen at a border crossing between Mongolia and Russia on Sunday as people fled the Kremlin's call-up of hundreds of thousands of reservists for the war in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1574042287281152001

    It's come to the point where the Russians are now more afraid of their own army than the Ukrainians are - to the extent that they're literally prepared to run away to Outer Mongolia to escape the draft. Though why the Mongolians would want to take in all that lot, Lord alone knows.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    PB Scotch expertise at its very best.
    Given how many ScoTories only get in on the list, it's a bit unkind of HYUFD to complain about Mr Findlay.
  • PeterM said:

    Honestly dont think the oaps who are the tory core vote will care...
    They may be the core, but by their own they are not sufficiently numerous.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    TimS said:

    Annoying when they don’t show the other parties’ numbers so I can’t do LLG. The accompanying article is paywalled too.

    But Comres are fairly Lab+ Green- and 45+33+presumably 5% for SNP only leaves 17% for the rest so implies something like LD 10%, Green 4%, Refuk 2% other 1%, thus LLG roughly 58-60%.

    Anyone have the full scores?
    Trend is LLG is down quite a bit during the Truss uptick - LD and Green are down during this period aren’t they as Truss pulls supporters back from don’t know but strengthens Labour support at same time.

    One of these 35% for Truss was a +5 on the previous poll, so -2 from last time is still +3 on that previous, so Truss honeymoon uptick still going on imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Carnyx said:

    Given how many ScoTories only get in on the list, it's a bit unkind of HYUFD to complain about Mr Findlay.
    Plenty also get in on the constituency vote too and the just 18% Scottish Labour got in 2019 under Corbyn and Leonard shows how badly they can do on a hard left agenda without any Scottish Conservative and LD tactical votes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Carnyx said:

    As Slab found in Scotland.
    Indeed. The SNP have them beaten all ends up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    As details of that NZ trade deal finally emerge…
    Those are from Wales - Kerry Hills and Welsh Blackface (which would probably get cancelled if the Londoners were told that was their name).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    England seriously need a wicket. 2 in fact.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    ...

    Not necessarily.

    If Johnson returns after a Truss disaster, prior to the next GE as a new broom and a safe pair of hands, the Conservatives will win.

    The voters that matter seem to think that a new leader breaks continuity Conservative Governments.
    You may very well be right.

    The most depressing thing about this whole situation is that Labour is highly unlikely to learn the lessons of the past and weaponize electoral reform against the Conservative Party. All the latter therefore have to do is wait for a modest number of swing voters to get cheesed off, when the damage inflicted by this lot proves unamenable to resolution by quick fixes. Then we'll be back to yet another round of rapacious asset stripping and pocket lining for elderly homeowners and the stinking rich. And thus, the cycle of decline continues.
  • Bill Diviney, Sr. Economist at ABN AMRO: "We now expect rates to reach 4% by early next year, with upside risks."

    https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/36595/2022-09-24-mini-budget-analysis-4-interest-rate-by-early-2023
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    ydoethur said:

    As an historian, I had the drop on you all there.
    My appearance on here today is a far better thing than I have ever done. 😟
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    ydoethur said:

    Their decision not to back voting reform is leading them to look silly. It's just bad PR.
    D'Hondt leave it that way...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Plenty also get in on the constituency vote too and the just 18% Scottish Labour got in 2019 under Corbyn and Leonard shows how badly they can do on a hard left agenda without any Scottish Conservative and LD tactical votes
    "plenty" must be in HYUFDese as it's certainly not the meaning of a word in English used in this sentence.

    5 Tory constituency MSPs, 26 list MSPs if I recall rightly. (ANd MPs don't count as we are talking about Holyrood, given your slur on Mr Findlay).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Bill Diviney, Sr. Economist at ABN AMRO: "We now expect rates to reach 4% by early next year, with upside risks."

    https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/36595/2022-09-24-mini-budget-analysis-4-interest-rate-by-early-2023

    4% by December seems quite likely to me!
  • British Social­ Attitudes Survey: Almost four in 10 Labour voters back Scottish independence

    Support for Scottish independence has risen among Labour voters and people living in England over the past decade, a major new survey has found.

    The 39th annual British Social Attitudes (BSA) Survey sparked headlines last week as it recorded the highest level of support for independence north of the Border at 52% and an increase in support for Irish re-unification.

    The latest survey shows that nearly four out of 10 – 38% – of Labour voters backed independence, while the proportion supporting devolution as the best way to govern had fallen to 53%. Eight per cent still thought Holyrood should not exist.

    The views of Conservatives have changed little over that time, with 7% backing independence in 2010 compared to 5% in 2021. Support for devolution has risen slightly among Tories, from 63% to 69% – while one in four believe there should be no Scottish Parliament.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/22632131.british-social--attitudes-almost-four-10-labour-voters-back-scottish-independence/
  • PB Scotch expertise at its very best.
    Tommy is Alba now isn’t he? I suspect a very teeny section of the ‘hard left’ will have migrated with him.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Bill Diviney, Sr. Economist at ABN AMRO: "We now expect rates to reach 4% by early next year, with upside risks."

    https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/36595/2022-09-24-mini-budget-analysis-4-interest-rate-by-early-2023

    A ray of hope. If enough middle income mortgage payers are made to scream in agony then it might just be enough to persuade the country to vote out the current Government at long bloody last. For reasons previously described I fear that the exile of the Tories won't last very long, but giving them the heave-ho at least opens up the remote possibility that it might.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    My appearance on here today is a far better thing than I have ever done. 😟
    Why? have you been Recalled to Life?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Foxy said:

    D'Hondt leave it that way...
    Don't worry. I've got a little list.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Speculation the BoE might call an emergency meeting next week to raise interest rates.

    Perhaps better if they can hold off a week, maybe until Kwasi is due to speak at the Tory conference...
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Reading what leon said about how accommodation now expensive in usa
    Looking at booking.com
    1 night in manhattan mid oct
    Cheapest hotel round £350 per night average around £550 per night
    Los angeles mid october
    Bog standard hotel in santa monica around £500 per night
    These prices price out much of the uk middle class from the usa
    Pound dollar exchange rate is killing us here
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    pigeon said:

    A ray of hope. If enough middle income mortgage payers are made to scream in agony then it might just be enough to persuade the country to vote out the current Government at long bloody last. For reasons previously described I fear that the exile of the Tories won't last very long, but giving them the heave-ho at least opens up the remote possibility that it might.
    How long the Tories remain out of power would depend on whether Labour implements election reform. I suspect it will be very high on the agenda following Liz's years....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Tommy is Alba now isn’t he? I suspect a very teeny section of the ‘hard left’ will have migrated with him.
    Yes, HYUFD is just a wee bittie out of date there (you can't vote for Mr S IIRC as he's not standing for anything as far as I know).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    British Social­ Attitudes Survey: Almost four in 10 Labour voters back Scottish independence

    Support for Scottish independence has risen among Labour voters and people living in England over the past decade, a major new survey has found.

    The 39th annual British Social Attitudes (BSA) Survey sparked headlines last week as it recorded the highest level of support for independence north of the Border at 52% and an increase in support for Irish re-unification.

    The latest survey shows that nearly four out of 10 – 38% – of Labour voters backed independence, while the proportion supporting devolution as the best way to govern had fallen to 53%. Eight per cent still thought Holyrood should not exist.

    The views of Conservatives have changed little over that time, with 7% backing independence in 2010 compared to 5% in 2021. Support for devolution has risen slightly among Tories, from 63% to 69% – while one in four believe there should be no Scottish Parliament.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/22632131.british-social--attitudes-almost-four-10-labour-voters-back-scottish-independence/

    So 62% of Scottish Labour voters still don't support independence then, well above the Scottish average. Without Unionist Scottish Labour votes and tactical votes from SCons and the LDs where they are the main opponent to the SNP, SLab has no chance of any further seats.

    Ian Murray's success in Edinburgh South in beating the SNP with Unionist votes united behind him should be the SLab model.

    Of course since the Queen's death support for independence has fallen anyway

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22292141.support-independence-queens-death-poll-suggests/
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    Speculation the BoE might call an emergency meeting next week to raise interest rates.

    Perhaps better if they can hold off a week, maybe until Kwasi is due to speak at the Tory conference...

    Are there any adults in the tory party
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,284
    Scott_xP said:

    Speculation the BoE might call an emergency meeting next week to raise interest rates.

    Perhaps better if they can hold off a week, maybe until Kwasi is due to speak at the Tory conference...

    Where was this sense of urgency over the last six to twelve months?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582

    Bill Diviney, Sr. Economist at ABN AMRO: "We now expect rates to reach 4% by early next year, with upside risks."

    https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/36595/2022-09-24-mini-budget-analysis-4-interest-rate-by-early-2023

    Did he really mean "year" or "week"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Carnyx said:

    "plenty" must be in HYUFDese as it's certainly not the meaning of a word in English used in this sentence.

    5 Tory constituency MSPs, 26 list MSPs if I recall rightly. (ANd MPs don't count as we are talking about Holyrood, given your slur on Mr Findlay).
    So 5 more with constituency seats than Findlay then
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    ydoethur said:

    Don't worry. I've got a little list.
    AV you indeed?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    PeterM said:

    Reading what leon said about how accommodation now expensive in usa
    Looking at booking.com
    1 night in manhattan mid oct
    Cheapest hotel round £350 per night average around £550 per night
    Los angeles mid october
    Bog standard hotel in santa monica around £500 per night
    These prices price out much of the uk middle class from the usa
    Pound dollar exchange rate is killing us here

    It’s not just the exchange rate, it’s a surge in wages for US hospitality staff, post Covid, as the bosses can’t find the workers

    Americans themselves are bemoaning these appalling prices - another reason so many of them in Europe
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    So 5 more with constituency seats than Findlay then
    He didn't stand in the last election. So your comparison is meaningless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    RobD said:

    Where was this sense of urgency over the last six to twelve months?
    Presumably the muppet who voted for a 0.25% increase is going to quit? No?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    The point about those usa hotel prices is we are now becoming a relativeky poor country outside the se of england....the days when the average joe has a weekend in new york are coming to an end
  • Mick Lynch at @TWT_NOW calls for labour unity, then gets the biggest cheer of the night by calling for Keir Starmer to resign.

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1573747634417897474?s=46&t=ATQN-YAT9KTOhRCiVeFMpg

    Che peccato.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    Mick Lynch at @TWT_NOW calls for labour unity, then gets the biggest cheer of the night by calling for Keir Starmer to resign.

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1573747634417897474?s=46&t=ATQN-YAT9KTOhRCiVeFMpg

    Che peccato.

    The more the likes of Lynch oppose Starmer, the better for his prospects in Tory held marginals
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:



    So 62% of Scottish Labour voters still don't support independence then, well above the Scottish average. Without Unionist Scottish Labour votes and tactical votes from SCons and the LDs where they are the main opponent to the SNP, SLab has no chance of any further seats.

    Ian Murray's success in Edinburgh South in beating the SNP with Unionist votes united behind him should be the SLab model.

    Of course since the Queen's death support for independence has fallen anyway

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/22292141.support-independence-queens-death-poll-suggests/
    That's at least three times you have cited that explicitly "limited" poll, as the reporter describes it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    MaxPB said:

    I have a thread idea on rentseeking and why it's destroying the UK economy and causing a break down of society but I haven't got the time of energy to write it. Sad.
    Was it about the cabinet ?
  • That attitude is a recipe for not achieving anything in politics and just going along with the consensus. Maybe it takes someone who is stupid enough to implement their ideas to get anything done.
    Too many people think that people's livelyhoods and the economy is a game, trying different strategies and not worrying about the consequences, a kind of sociopathy as it were. Kwazy Kwoissant and LizBot et al will move on if things go tits up, they won't be affected by short term economic disaster. Jacob Smug is so rich I often wonder why he is in Parliament. It can't be to do good things, as he hasn't yet.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    pigeon said:

    Long lines of vehicles were seen at a border crossing between Mongolia and Russia on Sunday as people fled the Kremlin's call-up of hundreds of thousands of reservists for the war in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1574042287281152001

    It's come to the point where the Russians are now more afraid of their own army than the Ukrainians are - to the extent that they're literally prepared to run away to Outer Mongolia to escape the draft. Though why the Mongolians would want to take in all that lot, Lord alone knows.

    The former president said they would be welcomed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105
    Foxy said:
    Mine's a double ....hic!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    Mick Lynch at @TWT_NOW calls for labour unity, then gets the biggest cheer of the night by calling for Keir Starmer to resign.

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1573747634417897474?s=46&t=ATQN-YAT9KTOhRCiVeFMpg

    Che peccato.

    Did he shout 'SPLITTER!!' while he did it?

    If not, what a missed opportunity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    pigeon said:

    You may very well be right.

    The most depressing thing about this whole situation is that Labour is highly unlikely to learn the lessons of the past and weaponize electoral reform against the Conservative Party. All the latter therefore have to do is wait for a modest number of swing voters to get cheesed off, when the damage inflicted by this lot proves unamenable to resolution by quick fixes. Then we'll be back to yet another round of rapacious asset stripping and pocket lining for elderly homeowners and the stinking rich. And thus, the cycle of decline continues.
    Perhaps.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/25/liz-truss-keir-starmer-electoral-reform-voting-system
    … Polling suggests that 83% of Labour members now support electoral reform. In the buildup to its conference this week, about 140 constituency parties have submitted motions calling for exactly that. Unless backroom fixes get in the way, a resolution proposing a new voting system should be debated on Monday afternoon.

    Last year, a call for proportional representation was defeated thanks to the big unions – but Unison and Unite have since shifted their position, and the people in charge of an umbrella group called Labour for a New Democracy sound confident that this year should see their side win. An understanding of the causal link between our endless national crises and the way we elect our MPs seems to have worked its way into the party’s collective soul, and such big Labour figures as the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, and the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, now support Labour’s reformers...
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    It’s not just the exchange rate, it’s a surge in wages for US hospitality staff, post Covid, as the bosses can’t find the workers

    Americans themselves are bemoaning these appalling prices - another reason so many of them in Europe
    Yeah a couple of 2.
    Week in usa
    Flights around £ 1000
    Accomodation if staying near major metro areas...lets say they are frugal pay £400 per night £2800
    Spending Again assume frugal so £150 per day
    Total cost £5000 for week
    Average joe in uk unlikely to pay that
  • HYUFD said:



    So 62% of Scottish Labour voters still don't support independence then, well above the Scottish average. Without Unionist Scottish Labour votes and tactical votes from SCons and the LDs where they are the main opponent to the SNP, SLab has no chance of any further seats.
    Nonsense. The only road to success for Scottish Labour is being pro-Scottish. They need to appeal to Middle Scotland, not to BritNat extremists.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Maybe every budget until the end of time should focus on getting rid of incomes above say, £85k, and maybe this is the only acceptable "politics". It does, however, have the long-run impact that everyone regardless of income will end up paying more for the welfare state they want, like they do in Belgium or Finland.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    The more the likes of Lynch oppose Starmer, the better for his prospects in Tory held marginals
    If you weren't innately predisposed to vote Conservative, pre-programmed if you like, I believe you would be campaigning for Starmer now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    If you weren't innately predisposed to vote Conservative, pre-programmed if you like. I believe you would be campaigning for Starmer now.
    He's certainly voted for PC, so the embryonic concept is there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Did he shout 'SPLITTER!!' while he did it?

    If not, what a missed opportunity.
    Love the Latin on that banner, it wants to say United we are strong, comes out as Us woman are one strong man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    IshmaelZ said:

    Love the Latin on that banner, it wants to say United we are strong, comes out as Us woman are one strong man.
    'Write it out 100 times. If it's not done by sunrise, I'll cut your balls off.'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    'Write it out 100 times. If it's not done by sunrise, I'll cut your balls off.'
    So bad I was wondering if it was not Latin at all but Esperanto or something
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    Yeah a couple of 2.
    Week in usa
    Flights around £ 1000
    Accomodation if staying near major metro areas...lets say they are frugal pay £400 per night £2800
    Spending Again assume frugal so £150 per day
    Total cost £5000 for week
    Average joe in uk unlikely to pay that
    thought everyone was airbnbing in the big cities these days.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    EPG said:

    Maybe every budget until the end of time should focus on getting rid of incomes above say, £85k, and maybe this is the only acceptable "politics". It does, however, have the long-run impact that everyone regardless of income will end up paying more for the welfare state they want, like they do in Belgium or Finland.

    Interesting. You seem somewhat resigned.

    What do you think will happen now?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    ...
    Carnyx said:

    He's certainly voted for PC, so the embryonic concept is there.
    My mistake. I'd forgotten HY's floating voter status.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    If you weren't innately predisposed to vote Conservative, pre-programmed if you like, I believe you would be campaigning for Starmer now.
    No, I will always vote Conservative at general elections. The most I would go at a general election is LD not full Labour if I were ever to vote differently
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    That should have been caught.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281

    Nonsense. The only road to success for Scottish Labour is being pro-Scottish. They need to appeal to Middle Scotland, not to BritNat extremists.
    Pro Scottish within the Union yes and winning over Middle Scotland Unionists, Scottish Nationalist extremists will never vote for them
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Tres said:

    thought everyone was airbnbing in the big cities these days.
    Once all their fees are added hotels are usually cheaper...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    HYUFD said:

    The more the likes of Lynch oppose Starmer, the better for his prospects in Tory held marginals
    Remember too when Arthur Scargill set up his Socialist Labour Party in 1996 in protest at Blair's repeal of Clause 4, New Labour were delighted
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    Yeah a couple of 2.
    Week in usa
    Flights around £ 1000
    Accomodation if staying near major metro areas...lets say they are frugal pay £400 per night £2800
    Spending Again assume frugal so £150 per day
    Total cost £5000 for week
    Average joe in uk unlikely to pay that
    Hmm. Excuse my ignorance - I don’t follow the type of websites and forums where I’m sure this sort of thing is discussed in depth, but…

    Are there still cheap options? Like, I dunno, renting an RV and driving around Yellowstone? If it’s just accommodation that is the stinger, then there are ways around it if you’re flexible, surely?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    Pro Scottish within the Union yes and winning over Middle Scotland Unionists, Scottish Nationalist extremists will never vote for them
    Talking about Slab and winning over Middle Scotland ...

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/22639088.scottish-labour-acknowledged-mistake-orangeman-councillor-says-call/

    'SCOTTISH Labour acknowledged "mistakes were made" to representatives of the Catholic community after standing an Orangeman as a candidate in the local elections, it has been claimed.' [...]

    Quigley said both Kelly and Sarwar had “acknowledged mistakes had been made” by Scottish Labour and said the party had shown a “willingness to help confront the hatred our community faces”.'
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    ping said:

    Hmm. Excuse my ignorance - I don’t follow the type of websites and forums where I’m sure this sort of thing is discussed in depth, but…

    Are there still cheap options? Like, I dunno, renting an RV and driving around Yellowstone? If it’s just accommodation that is the stinger, then there are ways around it if you’re flexible, surely?
    RV rental is extortionate, and then there’s the pitch charges in campgrounds. Motels still by far the cheapest options.

    We were thinking of a US road trip next year but decided not to because of the exchange rate. Doing Georgia instead.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    ping said:

    Hmm. Excuse my ignorance - I don’t follow the type of websites and forums where I’m sure this sort of thing is discussed in depth, but…

    Are there still cheap options? Like, I dunno, renting an RV and driving around Yellowstone? If it’s just accommodation that is the stinger, then there are ways around it if you’re flexible, surely?
    Of course there are...you could camp if you wanted...but thats hardly the point...many average middle class couples wont want to do that
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    There’s a PB rule, events take two weeks to find its way into polls, so no polls for two weeks will be comment on the budget.

    Meanwhile, we can see signs Government Budget is working staggering well ALREADY, with flocks across London Bridge this weekend, into the city.


    That is not a flock of sheep.

    This

    https://www.newsflare.com/video/241746/footage-shows-farmers-in-cumbria-moving-hundreds-of-sheep-down-from-the-fells

    is a medium size flock of sheep in Cumbria.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,569
    TimS said:

    RV rental is extortionate, and then there’s the pitch charges in campgrounds. Motels still by far the cheapest options.

    We were thinking of a US road trip next year but decided not to because of the exchange rate. Doing Georgia instead.
    A friend was telling me there's a way you can buy an RV/camper van as a foreigner through a limited company in Montana - and then sell it at the end of your trip. Substantially cheaper than renting one for 1+ months.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    ping said:

    Interesting. You seem somewhat resigned.

    What do you think will happen now?
    It's just an observation.

    The most likely outcome of this budget is that it gets reversed because the fools forgot to, er, pay for it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    edited September 2022
    If Rishi has any ambition to become PM then he needs to rebel against this budget and stand up for middle and lower income people. He only needs 37 rebels I think, given the nature and scale of the the cuts for rich people and sterling tanking I think he could find them.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    rkrkrk said:

    A friend was telling me there's a way you can buy an RV/camper van as a foreigner through a limited company in Montana - and then sell it at the end of your trip. Substantially cheaper than renting one for 1+ months.
    Only in America!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    Straw in the wind… I’ve seen a number of tweets today of much more determined anti mobilisation protests in Dagestan than elsewhere in Russia - here’s a recent one: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1574044060989390849?s=21&t=fgzE4uFGvKUb4TwRhxnUQQ

    What’s going on in Dagestan, and might this have a multiplier effect in neighbouring republics?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    algarkirk said:

    That is not a flock of sheep.

    This

    https://www.newsflare.com/video/241746/footage-shows-farmers-in-cumbria-moving-hundreds-of-sheep-down-from-the-fells

    is a medium size flock of sheep in Cumbria.

    George Monbiot look away now.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Speculation the BoE might call an emergency meeting next week to raise interest rates.

    Perhaps better if they can hold off a week, maybe until Kwasi is due to speak at the Tory conference...

    If they try to, they should certainly be stopped. They would be outside their remit.
  • ...

    My mistake. I'd forgotten HY's floating voter status.
    Seems he may vote lib dem
  • algarkirk said:

    That is not a flock of sheep.

    This

    https://www.newsflare.com/video/241746/footage-shows-farmers-in-cumbria-moving-hundreds-of-sheep-down-from-the-fells

    is a medium size flock of sheep in Cumbria.

    I thought they were Tory MPs heading to the City to explain the KamiKwasi special financial operation.
  • MaxPB said:

    If Rishi has any ambition to become PM then he needs to rebel against this budget and stand up for middle and lower income people. He only needs 37 rebels I think, given the nature and scale of the the cuts for rich people and sterling tanking I think he could find them.

    He just lost a leadership election on these issues. It would create a massive crisis for the Conservative party if he tried to get MPs to overrule the result.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    Biden adviser: US will ‘respond decisively’ if Russia uses nuclear weapons

    https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3660107-biden-adviser-us-will-respond-decisively-if-russia-uses-nuclear-weapons/
    White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday said the United States will “respond decisively” if Russian President Vladimir Putin moves to use nuclear weapons.
    “We have communicated directly, privately, at very high levels, to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the United States and our allies will respond decisively. And we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    edited September 2022
    Alasdair_ said:

    I thought they were Tory MPs heading to the City to explain the KamiKwasi special financial operation.
    Wasn’t that explained to everyone who mattered a week beforehand ?
This discussion has been closed.