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The US Midterms are looking more challenging for the GOP – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
  • There has been a small Truss bounce but very little evidence she has won Labour voters back.

    In a sense she's where Keir Starmer was when he took over
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    I must admit, I don't know exactly why Labour are so unpopular. They're viewed as ineffective and having taken their vote for granted; the town centre is run down, and the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework is somewhat controversial - but none of this seems to amount to the revulsion with which they now seem to be treated.
    Andrew Teale - who is a Boltonian - was informative on the subject yesterday, but it still doesn't seem to amount to what you would expect for a turnaround of this scale: https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-elections-of-15th-september-2022-2b35ae4f255b
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    There has been a small Truss bounce but very little evidence she has won Labour voters back.

    In a sense she's where Keir Starmer was when he took over

    Yes, at present it looks very much a shoring up some certainty to vote/2019 Tory waverers bounce. A sign of further movement or attracting back might be breaking the 35% glass ceiling theyve been stuck under since early April and more generally since early December 2021. They also need to break through that to get the elusive lead.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    11.17am Still queuing in the section just before security. Looking across the river where thousands are waiting to cross the bridge to #Westminster

    I joined the queue in #SouthwarkPark at around 11.30pm last night

    #QueueForTheQueen #London https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1570719735511420929/video/1
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    I must admit, I don't know exactly why Labour are so unpopular. They're viewed as ineffective and having taken their vote for granted; the town centre is run down, and the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework is somewhat controversial - but none of this seems to amount to the revulsion with which they now seem to be treated.
    Andrew Teale - who is a Boltonian - was informative on the subject yesterday, but it still doesn't seem to amount to what you would expect for a turnaround of this scale: https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-elections-of-15th-september-2022-2b35ae4f255b
    I'd tentatively suggest its another example of how susceptible Labour are to desertion - when they go, they go. See Scotland, the Red Wall generally 2005 to 2019, Tower Hamlets et al. Now class is not so much a voting factor, Labour's voter coalition is very fragile.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    You seem to have had enough of experts:

    In a response to the findings, a spokesperson for HMRC told City A.M.: “We have continually advised caution when comparing statistical trade data post-January 2021.”

    He explained that “the way HMRC collects data has changed since the UK left the EU, and comparing year-on-year data can lead to misinterpretation and factual inaccuracies, which we believe is the case here.”

    “In this case not only has our caution been disregarded, but the analysis only takes into account a very small subsection of overarching trade data,” the spokesperson added.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    The effects are now beginning to show through quite dramatically in the overall financial figures:

    https://twitter.com/JamesRWithers/status/1570655306648293378

    This is actually worse than I was expecting in 2016, and I fear there is more to come.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
  • Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
  • Mr. Doyle, if it were set at Christmas, specifically a Christmas party, then that would be the only sensible view to take.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    You seem to have had enough of experts:

    In a response to the findings, a spokesperson for HMRC told City A.M.: “We have continually advised caution when comparing statistical trade data post-January 2021.”

    He explained that “the way HMRC collects data has changed since the UK left the EU, and comparing year-on-year data can lead to misinterpretation and factual inaccuracies, which we believe is the case here.”

    “In this case not only has our caution been disregarded, but the analysis only takes into account a very small subsection of overarching trade data,” the spokesperson added.
    Expert or government hack?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    I was reserving judgment but that is a key stupidity indicator.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
    No, because the accused would be searched before he was brought up from the cell to the court. It used to be 2 police officers or 2 prison officers if he was on remand but these days it is usually group 4 security personnel wearing a white shirt. It's a bit odd.
    That's what I thought - but wanted to check.

    So that is out.

    30C inside ins't pleasant, but I have worked in those conditions.
    Bunch of lightweights. I've been forced to work in 250c. Hell, I've seen a readout on a TIC of over 400c about 2 metres above my head. 30c? That's cold!🤪
    Slacker. A friend has worked metres from 100,000,000 C (approx)
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
    No, because the accused would be searched before he was brought up from the cell to the court. It used to be 2 police officers or 2 prison officers if he was on remand but these days it is usually group 4 security personnel wearing a white shirt. It's a bit odd.
    That's what I thought - but wanted to check.

    So that is out.

    30C inside ins't pleasant, but I have worked in those conditions.
    Bunch of lightweights. I've been forced to work in 250c. Hell, I've seen a readout on a TIC of over 400c about 2 metres above my head. 30c? That's cold!🤪
    Long time no see, good to hear from an old timer!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    St Kitts while it was still British, then Birmingham at 3.

    St Kitts is a weird one. The main beach on Nevis is called Pinney's Beach. Knowing what I know about the Pinneys of Bristol, I'd change that if I were them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    thart said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
    My house is only 20% white. I barely recognise the place anymore.
    That's a v good joke. No 'likes' is poor.

    Anyway I hope you're digging in and fighting for the old traditions.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
    No, because the accused would be searched before he was brought up from the cell to the court. It used to be 2 police officers or 2 prison officers if he was on remand but these days it is usually group 4 security personnel wearing a white shirt. It's a bit odd.
    That's what I thought - but wanted to check.

    So that is out.

    30C inside ins't pleasant, but I have worked in those conditions.
    Bunch of lightweights. I've been forced to work in 250c. Hell, I've seen a readout on a TIC of over 400c about 2 metres above my head. 30c? That's cold!🤪
    Welcome back online @TwistedFireStopper !!!
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    Didnt you work high up in the city....i think you know the difference
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,154
    edited September 2022
    About Joan Armatrading, there does seem to be a bit of a divide between younger and older people in Afro-Carribean and African communities. Ben Okri is another slightly older figure who's been making his broadly both liberal and monarchist views fairly clear this week.

    It is extremely important for the Royals that they don't allow themselves to become totems of one side of a culture war against Harry and Meghan, as the Daily Mail and others would so dearly like, and they've made quite a bit of progress on that this week too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    The effects are now beginning to show through quite dramatically in the overall financial figures:

    https://twitter.com/JamesRWithers/status/1570655306648293378

    This is actually worse than I was expecting in 2016, and I fear there is more to come.
    It is quite hard to reconcile those figures with this:
    "Exports to EU countries were at £17.4 billion in July 2022, the highest level since records began in January 1997. Exports to non-EU countries were £1.5 billion lower than exports to EU countries in July 2022."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2022#main-trends

    These are nominal figures so you would expect them to rise, especially at a time of higher inflation, but even so. I am frankly wondering how reliable those statistics are.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    You seem to have had enough of experts:

    In a response to the findings, a spokesperson for HMRC told City A.M.: “We have continually advised caution when comparing statistical trade data post-January 2021.”

    He explained that “the way HMRC collects data has changed since the UK left the EU, and comparing year-on-year data can lead to misinterpretation and factual inaccuracies, which we believe is the case here.”

    “In this case not only has our caution been disregarded, but the analysis only takes into account a very small subsection of overarching trade data,” the spokesperson added.
    Expert or government hack?
    And trashing the civil service too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    St Kitts while it was still British, then Birmingham at 3.

    St Kitts is a weird one. The main beach on Nevis is called Pinney's Beach. Knowing what I know about the Pinneys of Bristol, I'd change that if I were them.
    Mmm, "Bristol", we know what that means. And not a classic car.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    It's your lived experience, so I can't question it. Nonetheless, my lived experience is that 'data' may be stretching it a bit. 'Datum'? :wink:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    About Joan Armatrading, there does seem to be a bit of a divide between younger and older people in Afro-Carribean and African communities. Ben Okri is another one who's been making his broadly both liberal and monarchist views clear recently.

    It's extremely important for the Royals that they don't allow themselves to become totems of one side of a culture war against Harry and Meghan, as the Daily Mail and others would so dearly like, and they've made quite a lot of progress on that this week.

    Ben Okri is up there imo with Kazuo Ishiguro in terms of leading storytellers.

    That said I have lost track a bit these past few years of his output. Has he a recent book out?
  • kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    I would expect her to show some emotion at this time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    It's your lived experience, so I can't question it. Nonetheless, my lived experience is that 'data' may be stretching it a bit. 'Datum'? :wink:
    Well let's say a single data point but of the very highest quality.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    It's your lived experience, so I can't question it. Nonetheless, my lived experience is that 'data' may be stretching it a bit. 'Datum'? :wink:
    Well let's say a single data point but of the very highest quality.
    Is My Myself I data or datum?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    edited September 2022
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    The effects are now beginning to show through quite dramatically in the overall financial figures:

    https://twitter.com/JamesRWithers/status/1570655306648293378

    This is actually worse than I was expecting in 2016, and I fear there is more to come.
    It is quite hard to reconcile those figures with this:
    "Exports to EU countries were at £17.4 billion in July 2022, the highest level since records began in January 1997. Exports to non-EU countries were £1.5 billion lower than exports to EU countries in July 2022."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2022#main-trends

    These are nominal figures so you would expect them to rise, especially at a time of higher inflation, but even so. I am frankly wondering how reliable those statistics are.
    The question are

    - What are they counting?
    - How?
    - Have definitions changed.

    One of those two sets of numbers is wrong - unless there has been a collapse in the number of exporters to the EU and a massive jump in the exports the remaining (ha!) exporters do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    About Joan Armatrading, there does seem to be a bit of a divide between younger and older people in Afro-Carribean and African communities. Ben Okri is another slightly older figure who's been making his broadly both liberal and monarchist views fairly clear this week.

    It is extremely important for the Royals that they don't allow themselves to become totems of one side of a culture war against Harry and Meghan, as the Daily Mail and others would so dearly like, and they've made quite a bit of progress on that this week too.

    I think that William is trying very hard to use this event to reconcile with his brother. Which would be admirable in any family.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    Didnt you work high up in the city....i think you know the difference
    Ha, you think the City is a science? No way. It's an abstract impressionist sort of place.
  • Peak something or other.
    From what I remember reading about Hell’s Angels’ initiation ceremonies (Hunter Thompson?) I’m sure Charles would fit in fine with the Windsor chapter.



  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Will H'Angus Zelensky be coming to the Windsor woman's funeral?

    He may find himself caught between two stools: the hosts won't want him disrespecting the royal family by wearing army fatigues, and it won't look good for his home market if he wears mourning clothes when he rarely if ever wears them for all the Ukrainians who've died in the war.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    Didnt you work high up in the city....i think you know the difference
    I think you should recalibrate your sarcasm meter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    It's your lived experience, so I can't question it. Nonetheless, my lived experience is that 'data' may be stretching it a bit. 'Datum'? :wink:
    Well let's say a single data point but of the very highest quality.
    Is My Myself I data or datum?
    I just don't do "datum" tbh Captain. It sounds finickety and wrong.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    You seem to have had enough of experts:

    In a response to the findings, a spokesperson for HMRC told City A.M.: “We have continually advised caution when comparing statistical trade data post-January 2021.”

    He explained that “the way HMRC collects data has changed since the UK left the EU, and comparing year-on-year data can lead to misinterpretation and factual inaccuracies, which we believe is the case here.”

    “In this case not only has our caution been disregarded, but the analysis only takes into account a very small subsection of overarching trade data,” the spokesperson added.
    https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945

    "It’s a similar story in the middle. In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade. A country in desperate need of migrant labour may soon have to ask new arrivals to take a pay cut."

    Spooky how the methodology for compiling those data changed at precisely the same time.

  • The chief prosecutor of the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ has been killed by a bomb in his office.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:



    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    She's an Admiral, General and an Air Chief Marshal which is a stunning military career by any standard.

    I also note that she was wearing a Naval Good Conduct medal the other day. You get those after 15 years of service without disciplinary offence.That spot on my rack remains consipicuously bare.
    Did you serve long enough to get your undetected crime stripes?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    I would expect her to show some emotion at this time.
    🙂 - you're almost as good as me at the song lyrics trick, William.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    There has been a small Truss bounce but very little evidence she has won Labour voters back.

    In a sense she's where Keir Starmer was when he took over

    And look at him now...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.

    That queue will be crap and roundly panned by everyone - "They should have stopped at 3"....
    And queue 5 will be straight to streaming
    We are already watching it...
    Will any of them be considered a Christmas queue?
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    I must admit, I don't know exactly why Labour are so unpopular. They're viewed as ineffective and having taken their vote for granted; the town centre is run down, and the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework is somewhat controversial - but none of this seems to amount to the revulsion with which they now seem to be treated.
    Andrew Teale - who is a Boltonian - was informative on the subject yesterday, but it still doesn't seem to amount to what you would expect for a turnaround of this scale: https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-elections-of-15th-september-2022-2b35ae4f255b
    It is an interesting read, and it just shows how things can change, in 2016, the author said that this ward was one of the most secure Labour wards in the Country and now the Tories have won it, despite the national poll picture.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    The chief prosecutor of the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ has been killed by a bomb in his office.

    He should have been more careful about where he stored his high explosives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Dynamo said:

    Will H'Angus Zelensky be coming to the Windsor woman's funeral?

    He may find himself caught between two stools: the hosts won't want him disrespecting the royal family by wearing army fatigues, and it won't look good for his home market if he wears mourning clothes when he rarely if ever wears them for all the Ukrainians who've died in the war.

    Do you often compare Jews to monkeys, or is it something you save specially for us?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    The chief prosecutor of the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ has been killed by a bomb in his office.

    Oh dear, how said.

    Never mind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    The effects are now beginning to show through quite dramatically in the overall financial figures:

    https://twitter.com/JamesRWithers/status/1570655306648293378

    This is actually worse than I was expecting in 2016, and I fear there is more to come.
    It is quite hard to reconcile those figures with this:
    "Exports to EU countries were at £17.4 billion in July 2022, the highest level since records began in January 1997. Exports to non-EU countries were £1.5 billion lower than exports to EU countries in July 2022."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2022#main-trends

    These are nominal figures so you would expect them to rise, especially at a time of higher inflation, but even so. I am frankly wondering how reliable those statistics are.
    The question are

    - What are they counting?
    - How?
    - Have definitions changed.

    One of those two sets of numbers is wrong - unless there has been a collapse in the number of exporters to the EU and a massive jump in the exports the remaining (ha!) exporters do.
    As usual, we are left in a miasma of statistics that cannot be reconciled and from which people draw the conclusions that suits them best, including me, of course. It is possible that the proportion of businesses who claimed to export to the EU was somewhat higher than the reality and the new paperwork requirements have shown the underlying position more accurately. But it is equally possible that those who exported tiny amounts have simply not found it worth the bother to continue.

    What I think all of these statistics demonstrate is that our balance of payments situation is unsustainable (hence some of the pressure on sterling) and that we need to either increase our output or cut our cloth to the value we actually produce. We have had more than 30 years of deficits now and the cumulative damage is massive. I would say that it is our biggest single economic problem, even ahead of inflation.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    Didnt you work high up in the city....i think you know the difference
    Ha, you think the City is a science? No way. It's an abstract impressionist sort of place.
    A Jackson Pollock picture is a good analogy to stock market trading. The traders' claim they have method in their actions, but the end result is a big splat of randomness
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    RH1992 said:

    The chief prosecutor of the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ has been killed by a bomb in his office.

    He should have been more careful about where he stored his high explosives.
    'Look, when I said I wanted a good bang in my office, that wasn't what I meant!'
  • Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    Peak something or other.
    From what I remember reading about Hell’s Angels’ initiation ceremonies (Hunter Thompson?) I’m sure Charles would fit in fine with the Windsor chapter.


    :) What an excellent bringing together of the two meanings, net-worthist and biker-gangist, of "We are the 1%"!

    It also sounds like something from Dave Wallis's 1964 novel "Only Lovers Left Alive".


  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited September 2022
    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dynamo said:

    Will H'Angus Zelensky be coming to the Windsor woman's funeral?

    He may find himself caught between two stools: the hosts won't want him disrespecting the royal family by wearing army fatigues, and it won't look good for his home market if he wears mourning clothes when he rarely if ever wears them for all the Ukrainians who've died in the war.

    The edginess is strong in this one. I imagine he would be entirely welcome in army fatigues, and I don't think it is usual in time of war for leaders to wear mourning. Got any evidence?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
    But it's a long while since a Bruce was on the throne.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    It’s all a bit Q-anon, and on, and on, and on.

  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    The effects are now beginning to show through quite dramatically in the overall financial figures:

    https://twitter.com/JamesRWithers/status/1570655306648293378

    This is actually worse than I was expecting in 2016, and I fear there is more to come.
    It is quite hard to reconcile those figures with this:
    "Exports to EU countries were at £17.4 billion in July 2022, the highest level since records began in January 1997. Exports to non-EU countries were £1.5 billion lower than exports to EU countries in July 2022."
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2022#main-trends

    These are nominal figures so you would expect them to rise, especially at a time of higher inflation, but even so. I am frankly wondering how reliable those statistics are.
    The question are

    - What are they counting?
    - How?
    - Have definitions changed.

    One of those two sets of numbers is wrong - unless there has been a collapse in the number of exporters to the EU and a massive jump in the exports the remaining (ha!) exporters do.
    There has. The rise and more is totally down to the gas price - in the summer we have an excess, so are a net exporter to the rest of Europe. In addition, there have been LPG imports and then re-exports as US and other supplies have come via the UK for distribution to the rest of Europe.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities. Polls show this as do the mainly white crowds in London. The bbc in its coverage is i think being disrespectful to ethnic minorities by acting as if this is the white Britain of the 1950s....which has thankfully long gone
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    Anecdotes vs data my friend
    It was data. She was on Ch4 news. I saw it.
    It's your lived experience, so I can't question it. Nonetheless, my lived experience is that 'data' may be stretching it a bit. 'Datum'? :wink:
    Well let's say a single data point but of the very highest quality.
    Is My Myself I data or datum?
    I just don't do "datum" tbh Captain. It sounds finickety and wrong.
    But finickety doesn't sound finickety is that right?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
    But it's a long while since a Bruce was on the throne.
    That's odd. Isn't KCIII a direct descendant of the Bruce, via James I, and James VI? Or is there something we ought to know about?
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    Will H'Angus Zelensky be coming to the Windsor woman's funeral?

    He may find himself caught between two stools: the hosts won't want him disrespecting the royal family by wearing army fatigues, and it won't look good for his home market if he wears mourning clothes when he rarely if ever wears them for all the Ukrainians who've died in the war.

    Do you often compare Jews to monkeys, or is it something you save specially for us?
    WTF is wrong with you? I'm comparing one comedy candidate who won an election to another comedy candidate who won an election. Ethnic or religious identity or background is completely and utterly irrelevant.

    Do you often mention Jewishness when it's completely and utterly irrelevant, or is it something you only do when you don't want a warrior president's background as a comedy election candidate mentioned?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    I must admit, I don't know exactly why Labour are so unpopular. They're viewed as ineffective and having taken their vote for granted; the town centre is run down, and the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework is somewhat controversial - but none of this seems to amount to the revulsion with which they now seem to be treated.
    Andrew Teale - who is a Boltonian - was informative on the subject yesterday, but it still doesn't seem to amount to what you would expect for a turnaround of this scale: https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-elections-of-15th-september-2022-2b35ae4f255b
    It is an interesting read, and it just shows how things can change, in 2016, the author said that this ward was one of the most secure Labour wards in the Country and now the Tories have won it, despite the national poll picture.
    For the 1,000th time!

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/New-Snobbery-David-Skelton/dp/1785906577
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    edited September 2022
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    Pretty white and pretty female? Or is that just sampling chance?

    Certainly when I spent a few minutes watching a couple of nights ago there seemed to be more women than men.
    Suspect it depends on time of day, at least in relation to work.

    I was watching for a while last night and there were a lot of Asian mourners and the balance between men and women looked pretty even. As I said last night the one notable, but understandable feature is how few children there were. Although far more younger people than I had expected.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited September 2022

    kinabalu said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    Joan Armatrading was on Ch4 news yesterday and she sounded keen on the monarchy. Seems an age - because it IS an age - since her 70s heyday but even after all that time she's still black.
    I would expect her to show some emotion at this time.
    "I would expect..."
    It's all 'me , myself, I' with you.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    If you read an earlier post i accounted for visitors outside London. Remember London is less than 59% white british
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited September 2022
    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    Looking at the queue it's pretty white.

    Not sure what it proves or doesn't prove or whether it resembles, proportionately, the country as a whole but it is pretty white.

    Edit: and I appreciate that we are probably being trolled in the original sense of the word troll and chatrooms but the queue is pretty white!
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Oops should have saud less than 50% white british
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    ydoethur said:

    RH1992 said:

    The chief prosecutor of the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ has been killed by a bomb in his office.

    He should have been more careful about where he stored his high explosives.
    'Look, when I said I wanted a good bang in my office, that wasn't what I meant!'
    One more Russian collaborator, "LNR Deputy Prosecutor General" Elena Steglenko, was in the office at the time of the explosion and died along with her boss from her injuries, UNIAN reports.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1570723171992485888
  • Scott_xP said:

    Cookie said:

    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    Personal Choice.

    Anne didn't want titles for her kids.

    Andrew demanded them.

    Edward is letting his kids choose when they turn 18
    Just to add to this a little...

    Anne's children didn't become princes or princesses because they are not in the male line. Only grandchildren in the male line get those titles. Anne's children could have had other titles, as with Edward's children, but she chose not.

    Andrew didn't need to demand titles for his children. They are grandchildren in the male line so are automatically princesses.

    Edward and his wife decided that their children would by styled as children of an earl (hence Viscount and Lady) rather than as princes or princesses. They will, as Scott says, be able to choose when they are 18.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,319
    Talking of race, as you are, Tucker Carlson - whatever you think of him - is extremely good at baiting the American Left on this subject (and others)

    Check this

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1570585089272053761?s=20&t=QaNTu_l1YSt0hBforg-kLw

    Some of it is genuinely funny, some brusque and crude - but still likely effective

    For the record, I abhor plenty of his views, especially his vile havering over Putin's war. But I can recognise powerful polemics, using humour
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,154
    edited September 2022
    Re; Ben Okri, I haven't followed his latest works, but looking up I saw that he's got too recent books out - "the age of magic" and "the freedom artist". I agree with you that he's a good, richly imaginative writer.

    He wrote this quite nice piece about the Queen last week, which got very little exposure. I don't agree with everythng he says, but I think it's broadly good , and it's striking how he reveals more by taking such a different tone to the ultra-secular tone of the majority of modern society, but also remaining liberal and open. I haven't see a single other writer or journalist cover it in this sort of way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/10/queen-elizabeth-was-part-of-our-psyche

    "Queen Elizabeth ruled at a time when the spiritual energy of the world was moving from a male-centred universe to one desperately in need of feminine energies. After two world wars, after the toxicity of Nazism, which was male energy at its most disordered and insane, what the world truly needed, at the level of its subconscious, was a female force, a stable, balancing, presence.

    Deep down what the world needed after the upheavals of wars and the violence of empire and the rampant capitalism that damages and diminishes humanity was the touch of the high maternal. It is the same reason why in past ages, in ancient civilisations, certain goddesses came to the ascendancy to compensate for particularly bloodthirsty epochs.



  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Shocking that the EU trade surplus is crashing when the Euro is at a record low. Europe will have major problems this winter
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Uk retail sales down 5.4 % vs a year ago. Bad economic data seeping in now. Truss is a dead woman walking
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Leon said:

    Talking of race, as you are, Tucker Carlson - whatever you think of him - is extremely good at baiting the American Left on this subject (and others)

    Check this

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1570585089272053761?s=20&t=QaNTu_l1YSt0hBforg-kLw

    Some of it is genuinely funny, some brusque and crude - but still likely effective

    For the record, I abhor plenty of his views, especially his vile havering over Putin's war. But I can recognise powerful polemics, using humour

    Leon
    A couple of weeks ago you mentioned a particular kind of lightbulb that was useful for reducing SAD. Are you in a position to recommend any particular brand?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The King gets through a pen thing unenraged!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Re; Ben Okri, I haven't followed his latest works, but looking up I saw that he's got too recent books out - "the age of magic" and "the freedom artist". I agree with you that he's a good, richly imaginative writer.

    He wrote this quite nice piece about the Queen last week, which got very little exposure. I don't agree with everythng he says, but I think it's broadly good , and it's striking how he reveals more by taking such a different tone to the ultra-secular tone of the majority of modern society, but also remaining liberal and open. I haven't see a single other writer or journalist cover it in this sort of way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/10/queen-elizabeth-was-part-of-our-psyche

    "Queen Elizabeth ruled at a time when the spiritual energy of the world was moving from a male-centred universe to one desperately in need of feminine energies. After two world wars, after the toxicity of Nazism, which was male energy at its most disordered and insane, what the world truly needed, at the level of its subconscious, was a female force, a stable, balancing, presence."

    Excellent thanks will look at those books also.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    thart said:

    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities. Polls show this as do the mainly white crowds in London. The bbc in its coverage is i think being disrespectful to ethnic minorities by acting as if this is the white Britain of the 1950s....which has thankfully long gone
    Support for the monarchy skews old, ethnic minorities in the UK currently skew young... so at least partially a confounding effect?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
    But it's a long while since a Bruce was on the throne.
    That's odd. Isn't KCIII a direct descendant of the Bruce, via James I, and James VI? Or is there something we ought to know about?
    He is descended via Robert's daughter and then James' daughter and granddaughter, with a further two breaks in the 'direct' line in 1901 and of course, now.

    So yes, although he can trace his line back to Robert, it isn't 'direct' in dynastic terms and he isn't considered a Bruce.

    Unless you also want to consider him a member of the House of Wessex.
  • About Joan Armatrading, there does seem to be a bit of a divide between younger and older people in Afro-Carribean and African communities. Ben Okri is another slightly older figure who's been making his broadly both liberal and monarchist views fairly clear this week.

    It is extremely important for the Royals that they don't allow themselves to become totems of one side of a culture war against Harry and Meghan, as the Daily Mail and others would so dearly like, and they've made quite a bit of progress on that this week too.

    The Royal Family needs to be careful not to get tied to the Conservative Party. Having the Prime Minister trail round the country with the new King is one danger point, and some recent guest lists have looked a tad lopsided.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Leon said:

    Talking of race, as you are, Tucker Carlson - whatever you think of him - is extremely good at baiting the American Left on this subject (and others)

    Check this

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1570585089272053761?s=20&t=QaNTu_l1YSt0hBforg-kLw

    Some of it is genuinely funny, some brusque and crude - but still likely effective

    For the record, I abhor plenty of his views, especially his vile havering over Putin's war. But I can recognise powerful polemics, using humour

    Yes interesting. Would be rather like moving a bunch of asylum seekers to Hampstead
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited September 2022
    Ben Okri in the Graun article, first line:

    "She hovers there in the halfway world of dream."

    Very sorry to say but instantly 1,000,000,000x better than so much crap written in countless articles about HMQ and, for example, The Queue.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities. Polls show this as do the mainly white crowds in London. The bbc in its coverage is i think being disrespectful to ethnic minorities by acting as if this is the white Britain of the 1950s....which has thankfully long gone
    Support for the monarchy skews old, ethnic minorities in the UK currently skew young... so at least partially a confounding effect?
    Young people tend to have jobs and dependent children as well - so can't spare the time to do the queue.
  • Re; Ben Okri, I haven't followed his latest works, but looking up I saw that he's got too recent books out - "the age of magic" and "the freedom artist". I agree with you that he's a good, richly imaginative writer.

    He wrote this quite nice piece about the Queen last week, which got very little exposure. I don't agree with everythng he says, but I think it's broadly good , and it's striking how he reveals more by taking such a different tone to the ultra-secular tone of the majority of modern society, but also remaining liberal and open. I haven't see a single other writer or journalist cover it in this sort of way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/10/queen-elizabeth-was-part-of-our-psyche

    "Queen Elizabeth ruled at a time when the spiritual energy of the world was moving from a male-centred universe to one desperately in need of feminine energies. After two world wars, after the toxicity of Nazism, which was male energy at its most disordered and insane, what the world truly needed, at the level of its subconscious, was a female force, a stable, balancing, presence."

    Interesting that there are Okri fans on here - I thought Famished Road was one of most turgid things I had ever read, as did the friend who lent it to me. Another (bookshop-owning) friend finds his books sell to the sort of people she describews as 'shelf-decorators'.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    thart said:

    Uk retail sales down 5.4 % vs a year ago. Bad economic data seeping in now. Truss is a dead woman walking

    And what's the yoy figure after you smooth out the impact of just having come out of lockdown this time last year, thus releasing a pent-up wave of delayed spending?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited September 2022
    thart said:

    Shocking that the EU trade surplus is crashing when the Euro is at a record low. Europe will have major problems this winter

    Presumably partly due to the price of gas being so high and they're importing more than usual at this time of year?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dynamo said:

    Will H'Angus Zelensky be coming to the Windsor woman's funeral?

    He may find himself caught between two stools: the hosts won't want him disrespecting the royal family by wearing army fatigues, and it won't look good for his home market if he wears mourning clothes when he rarely if ever wears them for all the Ukrainians who've died in the war.

    The edginess is strong in this one. I imagine he would be entirely welcome in army fatigues, and I don't think it is usual in time of war for leaders to wear mourning. Got any evidence?
    He'd be more welcome than any Russian even if he turned up in the nude.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities. Polls show this as do the mainly white crowds in London. The bbc in its coverage is i think being disrespectful to ethnic minorities by acting as if this is the white Britain of the 1950s....which has thankfully long gone
    Support for the monarchy skews old, ethnic minorities in the UK currently skew young... so at least partially a confounding effect?
    Young people tend to have jobs and dependent children as well - so can't spare the time to do the queue.
    Then you have to compare the young people in the queue. If the young people in the queue are also predominantly white suggests young white people support monarchy more than young ethnic minority people
  • Boris will be absolutely fuming. His defenestration means that he has missed the golden opportunity to regale us all with tales of Britain's "world-beating queues", which he would have greatly enjoyed.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/

    Absolutely tragic. Small businesses that step up to become exporters tend to realise big productivity gains and are the backbone of any successful economy. Really dire news for future economic growth, wages, tax revenue etc.
    You seem to have had enough of experts:

    In a response to the findings, a spokesperson for HMRC told City A.M.: “We have continually advised caution when comparing statistical trade data post-January 2021.”

    He explained that “the way HMRC collects data has changed since the UK left the EU, and comparing year-on-year data can lead to misinterpretation and factual inaccuracies, which we believe is the case here.”

    “In this case not only has our caution been disregarded, but the analysis only takes into account a very small subsection of overarching trade data,” the spokesperson added.
    Expert or government hack?
    And trashing the civil service too.
    But enough about the government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Re; Ben Okri, I haven't followed his latest works, but looking up I saw that he's got too recent books out - "the age of magic" and "the freedom artist". I agree with you that he's a good, richly imaginative writer.

    He wrote this quite nice piece about the Queen last week, which got very little exposure. I don't agree with everythng he says, but I think it's broadly good , and it's striking how he reveals more by taking such a different tone to the ultra-secular tone of the majority of modern society, but also remaining liberal and open. I haven't see a single other writer or journalist cover it in this sort of way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/10/queen-elizabeth-was-part-of-our-psyche

    "Queen Elizabeth ruled at a time when the spiritual energy of the world was moving from a male-centred universe to one desperately in need of feminine energies. After two world wars, after the toxicity of Nazism, which was male energy at its most disordered and insane, what the world truly needed, at the level of its subconscious, was a female force, a stable, balancing, presence."

    Interesting that there are Okri fans on here - I thought Famished Road was one of most turgid things I had ever read, as did the friend who lent it to me. Another (bookshop-owning) friend finds his books sell to the sort of people she describews as 'shelf-decorators'.
    Yes not for everyone. A bit like Mantel or, yes, Proust or even JJ himself. You've got to give yourself over completely to their world. If so much as your big toe remains outside it's all over.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Carnyx said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities. Polls show this as do the mainly white crowds in London. The bbc in its coverage is i think being disrespectful to ethnic minorities by acting as if this is the white Britain of the 1950s....which has thankfully long gone
    Support for the monarchy skews old, ethnic minorities in the UK currently skew young... so at least partially a confounding effect?
    Young people tend to have jobs and dependent children as well - so can't spare the time to do the queue.
    Also old people less likrly to have thr physical stamina to do the queue so actually less likely to be in it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    The King gets through a pen thing unenraged!

    I can just imagine Michael Komor and Andy John setting things up:

    'Right. 1) Is the table big enough? 2) Have we checked the pens?

    The rest will take care of itself.'
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    thart said:

    Driver said:

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    I quoted white, not white British (which is indeed around 81% on the source I used). Also people will have travelled from outside of London, and some will be tourists.

    All in all, the sample quoted isn't enough to legitimately try divisive race-baiting nonsense.
    The point i am making is there is less support for the monarchy amongst ethnic minorities.
    Yes, divisive race-baiting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    SWITCHED ON JUST NOW BREAKING NEWS:

    Immediately on screen: one white bloke, two black blokes.

    67% black constitution of the queue.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    ydoethur said:

    thart said:

    Shocking that the EU trade surplus is crashing when the Euro is at a record low. Europe will have major problems this winter

    Presumably partly due to the price of gas being so high and they're importing more than usual at this time of year?
    Yes, the deterioration of UK and EU trade balance is almost identical. The UK version was pasted earlier - I can't find them overlayed on one graph, but here's the EU/Eurozone one:



    Almost all of this will be energy related (directly, or indirectly in some countries due to factory slowdowns or shutdowns).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
    But it's a long while since a Bruce was on the throne.
    That's odd. Isn't KCIII a direct descendant of the Bruce, via James I, and James VI? Or is there something we ought to know about?
    He is descended via Robert's daughter and then James' daughter and granddaughter, with a further two breaks in the 'direct' line in 1901 and of course, now.

    So yes, although he can trace his line back to Robert, it isn't 'direct' in dynastic terms and he isn't considered a Bruce.

    Unless you also want to consider him a member of the House of Wessex.
    HYUFD was saying the other day that KCIII was infallibly a Scot because he was descended from Marie Stuart. So on the same logic he is infallibly also a Stewart, and therefore a Bruce - but also, as you say, a Wessex -wotsit, and a Dutchman, and a Greek, and so on and so forth.

    But in reality we are getting into some very small fractions here.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Uk retail sales down 5.4 % vs a year ago. Bad economic data seeping in now. Truss is a dead woman walking

    And what's the yoy figure after you smooth out the impact of just having come out of lockdown this time last year, thus releasing a pent-up wave of delayed spending?
    Well if you think people are spending freely at the moment outside the top 10 % i have a bridge to sell you
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Next you'll be saying it's a Christmas Queue
    It's only 100 days until Die Hard.
    But it's a long while since a Bruce was on the throne.
    That's odd. Isn't KCIII a direct descendant of the Bruce, via James I, and James VI? Or is there something we ought to know about?
    He is descended via Robert's daughter and then James' daughter and granddaughter, with a further two breaks in the 'direct' line in 1901 and of course, now.

    So yes, although he can trace his line back to Robert, it isn't 'direct' in dynastic terms and he isn't considered a Bruce.

    Unless you also want to consider him a member of the House of Wessex.
    Nah, that's Edward, isn't it? :wink:
  • TOPPING said:

    Re; Ben Okri, I haven't followed his latest works, but looking up I saw that he's got too recent books out - "the age of magic" and "the freedom artist". I agree with you that he's a good, richly imaginative writer.

    He wrote this quite nice piece about the Queen last week, which got very little exposure. I don't agree with everythng he says, but I think it's broadly good , and it's striking how he reveals more by taking such a different tone to the ultra-secular tone of the majority of modern society, but also remaining liberal and open. I haven't see a single other writer or journalist cover it in this sort of way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/10/queen-elizabeth-was-part-of-our-psyche

    "Queen Elizabeth ruled at a time when the spiritual energy of the world was moving from a male-centred universe to one desperately in need of feminine energies. After two world wars, after the toxicity of Nazism, which was male energy at its most disordered and insane, what the world truly needed, at the level of its subconscious, was a female force, a stable, balancing, presence."

    Interesting that there are Okri fans on here - I thought Famished Road was one of most turgid things I had ever read, as did the friend who lent it to me. Another (bookshop-owning) friend finds his books sell to the sort of people she describews as 'shelf-decorators'.
    Yes not for everyone. A bit like Mantel or, yes, Proust or even JJ himself. You've got to give yourself over completely to their world. If so much as your big toe remains outside it's all over.
    And yet Mantel and Proust are fine for me (haven't read Joyce). The big modern worldbuilder for me is John Crowley. The Aegypt cycle is extremely dense and rewarding.
This discussion has been closed.