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The US Midterms are looking more challenging for the GOP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 16 in General
imageThe US Midterms are looking more challenging for the GOP – politicalbetting.com

The US mid-term elections take place on November 8th and the general experience is that these are almost always a challenge for the party that controls the White House.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    Does sound a bit odd, doesn't it?

    I take these stories with a pinch of salt. This was Max Rushden in The Guardian yesterday:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2022/sep/15/silence-football-links-with-sexual-and-domestic-violence

    So what should happen to players accused of these crimes? They are, of course, innocent until proven guilty. But since the conviction rate is so low, this kind of all-or-nothing solution feels inadequate. Should football’s authorities become some kind of civil court – on the balance of probability rather than reasonable doubt? Clearly this isn’t what the Premier League or any other governing body was set up to do. “Where there have been allegations there needs to be a serious investigation. And I do think it has to come from an independent ombudsman because the clubs will protect their own, and not every woman wants to go to the police. It is about the clubs taking allegations seriously. And then when there are ongoing investigations, the players shouldn’t be on the pitch.”

    Everything before the but...

    And the thing is, Mason Greenwood's career is over whatever happens with criminal proceedings. So it's kind of happening anyway where evidence is in the public domain.

    It does annoy me that the Guardian goes into bat for people accused of some serious crimes, but not others.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,328
    Having said that a result like this is very likely to lead to a Republcian majority in the House as a result of gerrymandering, inefficiency and voter suppression. The Democrats probably require to be 3-4% ahead to overcome that bias.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    NEW the Queen’s 8 grandchildren will stand vigil by the #Queen on Saturday night. The Prince of Wales will stand at the head, the Duke of Sussex at the foot. Both will be in uniform at the #King’s request. Others will wear morning coat and dark formal dress with decorations

    Prince William will be flanked by Zara Tindall and Peter Phillips, Prince Harry by Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie with Lady Louise and Viscount Severn in the middle of the #Queen’s coffin

    “The grandchildren, at the King’s invitation, are very keen to pay their respects - just as their parents are doing the evening before,” says a royal source. #Queen #KingCharles


    https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1570693797000126464
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,410
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    I fully agree. I’d have some sympathy if it was a Guardian typo for 33 degrees… I assume it’s a work to rule thing
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    Does sound a bit odd, doesn't it?

    I take these stories with a pinch of salt. This was Max Rushden in The Guardian yesterday:

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2022/sep/15/silence-football-links-with-sexual-and-domestic-violence

    So what should happen to players accused of these crimes? They are, of course, innocent until proven guilty. But since the conviction rate is so low, this kind of all-or-nothing solution feels inadequate. Should football’s authorities become some kind of civil court – on the balance of probability rather than reasonable doubt? Clearly this isn’t what the Premier League or any other governing body was set up to do. “Where there have been allegations there needs to be a serious investigation. And I do think it has to come from an independent ombudsman because the clubs will protect their own, and not every woman wants to go to the police. It is about the clubs taking allegations seriously. And then when there are ongoing investigations, the players shouldn’t be on the pitch.”

    Everything before the but...

    And the thing is, Mason Greenwood's career is over whatever happens with criminal proceedings. So it's kind of happening anyway where evidence is in the public domain.

    It does annoy me that the Guardian goes into bat for people accused of some serious crimes, but not others.
    While there are now UK temperature limits for work, the American OHSA has


    “Light work” is defined as exerting 200 kcal/hr., which can include sitting or standing performing light hand or arm work. The permissible heat level is 86 degrees Fahrenheit.


    Which is 30 C

    That doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    edited September 16
    It still looks like the GOP will take the House but with a smaller majority than would have been expected earlier in the year.

    The Democrats should hold the Senate
  • Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    DavidL said:

    Good. Until they get over Trump they are not fit to govern anything.

    It is virtually unprecedented in modern times for a party that has won the White House for the first time not to win it a second time, only Carter and Trump himself were the exceptions to that rule since the start of the 20th Century.

    Its virtually unprecedented in recent years for the House not to switch in the first term that a new party has the White House. 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11 being an obvious exception to the rule.

    Hopefully this year is another exception and helps make the point to sensible GOPers that Trump and Trumpists are the problem and not the solution.
    Bush I ?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,227
    edited September 16

    DavidL said:

    Good. Until they get over Trump they are not fit to govern anything.

    It is virtually unprecedented in modern times for a party that has won the White House for the first time not to win it a second time, only Carter and Trump himself were the exceptions to that rule since the start of the 20th Century.

    Its virtually unprecedented in recent years for the House not to switch in the first term that a new party has the White House. 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11 being an obvious exception to the rule.

    Hopefully this year is another exception and helps make the point to sensible GOPers that Trump and Trumpists are the problem and not the solution.
    Bush I ?
    Bush I was the third time his Party held the White House, following Reagan I and Reagan II.

    Of 12 occasions that the White House switched party since the start of the 20th Century, in 10/12 times the party that had just gained the White House at the previous occasion kept it at the next one. Carter and Trump are the only exceptions to that rule.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry

    Best to keep thoughts like that to yourself. I do!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,328
    edited September 16
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,988
    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    I think it will be a real struggle for the Dems to hold the House. The Senate looks much better for them although some of the races are likely to be very close .

    The deal between the Unions and Rail companies was a massive relief for the WH . A strike would have been a disaster for the economy and the Dems would have been blamed ,

    That deal still has to be ratified by union members , the voting is not due to be completed until mid October . Even if the deal is rejected by one or more Unions it’s unlikely there would be an immediate strike with more time for negotiations so for the mid terms the possibility for a freight strike now looks unlikely to happen before those .

    Of course the GOP were desperate for the strike !
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    Pretty white and pretty female? Or is that just sampling chance?

    Certainly when I spent a few minutes watching a couple of nights ago there seemed to be more women than men.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,364
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW the Queen’s 8 grandchildren will stand vigil by the #Queen on Saturday night. The Prince of Wales will stand at the head, the Duke of Sussex at the foot. Both will be in uniform at the #King’s request. Others will wear morning coat and dark formal dress with decorations

    Prince William will be flanked by Zara Tindall and Peter Phillips, Prince Harry by Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie with Lady Louise and Viscount Severn in the middle of the #Queen’s coffin

    “The grandchildren, at the King’s invitation, are very keen to pay their respects - just as their parents are doing the evening before,” says a royal source. #Queen #KingCharles


    https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1570693797000126464

    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    Trying to remember/work out who all these people were I allowed myself a moment of sadness that the Queen isn't being succeeded by her daughter. She'd be much better. Or at least more like what we're used to.
    Ah well. That's the point - we don't get to choose.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry

    That is the system working as intended, without all this mourning to accelerate the process your grief would have eaten away at you for years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    10.01am Ah … THIS is the home stretch! Snake queue two!! Then it’s just security!! #QueueForTheQueen #London https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1570700087646617600/video/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Cookie said:

    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    Personal Choice.

    Anne didn't want titles for her kids.

    Andrew demanded them.

    Edward is letting his kids choose when they turn 18
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    Pretty white and pretty female? Or is that just sampling chance?

    Certainly when I spent a few minutes watching a couple of nights ago there seemed to be more women than men.
    Think women are more fans of the monarchy to be honest...all that ceremony and pageantry
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1
  • thartthart Posts: 139

    Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry

    To be honest millions think like you but would never admit it. Hard to grieve constantly for someone you never met and had a life of untold privilege. Yes she did her duty but many days her schedule seemed quite relaxed to me
  • DriverDriver Posts: 844

    Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry

    You cared enough to comment, completely off topic on the thread.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,364
    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited September 16
    We are already at the point where the emotional reaction to the Queen's death has been superceded by distance and formality for many people, and instututions like the BBC need to be aware of that. Like some others, I like the quiet dignity of The Queue, but it's at least a relief that we haven't heard any overblown nonsense from Nicholas Witchell about "a great river of lamentation flowing through the country" for at least a couple of days. I will certainly be watching the Queen's funeral, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:



    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    She's an Admiral, General and an Air Chief Marshal which is a stunning military career by any standard.

    I also note that she was wearing a Naval Good Conduct medal the other day. You get those after 15 years of service without disciplinary offence.That spot on my rack remains consipicuously bare.
    You worked hard to achieve the lack of that medal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1

    Don't get this. Don't people have till Sunday evening to basically see her if they want ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    edited September 16

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:



    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    She's an Admiral, General and an Air Chief Marshal which is a stunning military career by any standard.

    I also note that she was wearing a Naval Good Conduct medal the other day. You get those after 15 years of service without disciplinary offence.That spot on my rack remains consipicuously bare.
    You worked hard to achieve the lack of that medal?
    At West Point you get a special award (The Century Men) if you manage to accrue more than one hundred hours of disciplinary drill and still graduate. 👍🇺🇸
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,227
    edited September 16
    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    You're assuming all those migrants are non-white though. Most of those migrants came from the EU and the EU is more white than the UK is, so you're maybe looking at 2% difference not 5%.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,831
    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081
    Scott_xP said:

    Cookie said:

    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    Personal Choice.

    Anne didn't want titles for her kids.

    Andrew demanded them.

    Edward is letting his kids choose when they turn 18
    Easy to spot the character of those people by those simple choices. The fact that Meghan was offended her children didn't (until last week) get titles due to the rules says a lot too.
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better
  • Driver said:

    Very sad the Queen has died but I don't care anymore, sorry

    You cared enough to comment, completely off topic on the thread.
    Morning Prick!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    It sounds as though it’s as white as the Colston statue mob.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    We are already at the point where the emotional reaction to the Queen's death has been superceded by distance and formality for many people, and instututions like the BBC need to be aware of that. Like some others, I like the quiet dignity of The Queue, but it's at least a relief that we haven't heard any overblown nonsense from Nicholas Witchell about "a great river of lamentation flowing through the country" for at least a couple of days. I will certainly be watching the Queen's funeral, though.

    King Charles judgement on Nicholas Witchell has aged. Well.


    "I can't bear that man. I mean, he's so awful, he really is."
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
  • thartthart Posts: 139

    thart said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    86% was at the 2011 census. Net migration has average around 300000 a year since. Thats about 3,300,000 extra ethnic minorities over 11 years. That accounts to an extra 5%. So now likely around 81% white british. And of course London much lower. So well out of line
    You're assuming all those migrants are non-white though. Most of those migrants came from the EU and the EU is more white than the UK is, so you're maybe looking at 2% difference not 5%.
    Well we will soon know when the latest census nos come out. Since Brexit in 2016 of course most immigration is now from outside the eu
  • eekeek Posts: 20,667

    We are already at the point where the emotional reaction to the Queen's death has been superceded by distance and formality for many people, and instututions like the BBC need to be aware of that. Like some others, I like the quiet dignity of The Queue, but it's at least a relief that we haven't heard any overblown nonsense from Nicholas Witchell about "a great river of lamentation flowing through the country" for at least a couple of days. I will certainly be watching the Queen's funeral, though.

    King Charles judgement on Nicholas Witchell has aged. Well.


    "I can't bear that man. I mean, he's so awful, he really is."
    I think that statement applies to both parties in the statement...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1

    In which case there must now be a queue for the queue, because how else to determine who gets to join when it reopens?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,667
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1

    Don't get this. Don't people have till Sunday evening to basically see her if they want ?
    I don't think there is anywhere left for them to safely queue....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1

    In which case there must now be a queue for the queue, because how else to determine who gets to join when it reopens?
    Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you, the queue for The Queue https://twitter.com/VFritzNews/status/1570706581456850946/photo/1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    On topic... I saw that NH Senate candidate and far right psycho Don Bolduc had swiftly resiled from his election fraud position and acknowldged that Biden is POTUS. He was deep MAGAworld and if he's turned things must be desperate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Queue Hard or Queue Free?
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:



    Why are Charles and Andrew's children princes and princesses, Edward's a lady and viscount, and Anne's nothing at all? The aristocracy is very puzzling.

    She's an Admiral, General and an Air Chief Marshal which is a stunning military career by any standard.

    I also note that she was wearing a Naval Good Conduct medal the other day. You get those after 15 years of service without disciplinary offence.That spot on my rack remains consipicuously bare.
    You worked hard to achieve the lack of that medal?
    At West Point you get a special award (The Century Men) if you manage to accrue more than one hundred hours of disciplinary drill and still graduate. 👍🇺🇸
    I've heard of a shitlist, but piss-list is novel.

    https://twitter.com/Haruspexut/status/1570582230241783809
    Refusing to take part in the special military operation now gets your face posted above a urinal.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. xP, surely it should be called: Queue II - Queue Harder ?

    Queue Hard or Queue Free?
    Presumably the new queue will also fill up, require a queue for the queue for the queue

    Queue Hard With A Vengeance


    "Holy Toledo! Somebody had fun."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,304
    ydoethur said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    It sounds as though it’s as white as the Colston statue mob.
    You don't have to be black to think that the slave trade was despicable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: The queue to see the Queen lying in state has been closed for at least six hours after reaching capacity https://trib.al/4xEzDQB https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570700850036895745/photo/1

    In which case there must now be a queue for the queue, because how else to determine who gets to join when it reopens?
    Bundle!!!!!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378

    Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    Apropos of nothing its the Tories first local by election gain since the May locals. They also held the Sussex seat they were defending. Labour regained a traditionally labour ward from the Mansfield independents in Mansfield on a 14% turnout (310 total votes cast), turnouts were cratered across the board again
    Techne this morning if not reported yet is a 41 35 six point Labour lead, last week was apparantly 8 points but was not reported, probably because of HMQ
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    Progozhin's convict battalion ?

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232
    Baza reports that >8 prison transport trucks are transporting 400 prisoners in Tambov to a training area in southern Russia (possibly Wagner’s base in Molkino) likely before going to Ukraine. They say 10-12 prison trucks were seen in Belgorod last night.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,304

    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.

    The British are rightly internationally renowned for their love of queueing!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    edited September 16
    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.

    That queue will be crap and roundly panned by everyone - "They should have stopped at 3"....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,328

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
    No, because the accused would be searched before he was brought up from the cell to the court. It used to be 2 police officers or 2 prison officers if he was on remand but these days it is usually group 4 security personnel wearing a white shirt. It's a bit odd.
  • Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Random sample looking this minute at the live stream (for @thart if he's still with us).

    Asian woman
    White bloke (a rev as it turns out)
    White couple
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White woman
    White bloke
    White bloke
    White woman
    White woman

    OK I am prepared to say that the queue to pay respect is pretty white.

    Don't like this double line business either. Would be well stressed if I was on the outer line.

    Anyway, enough with queues.

    11 out of 12 white, 91%. National total is 86% so not ridiculously out of line, if you'll forgive the pun. Especially considering that the queue almost certainly skews older than the population as a whole.
    I think views on the monarchy are more correlated with age than anything else, and any racial differential probably reflects that primarily. Although you might expect people with ancestral connections to the former colonies to be more critical of the monarchy that isn't really my experience. My father in law is quite anti monarchy while my mother in law is a monarchist. When we had our local street parties for platty jubes the people who put up union flags on their houses were mostly not white.
    One thing I will say is that I am very glad to see the queue taking place in South East London, the centre of the known universe. The map on the queue tracker App includes our house!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    edited September 16
    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    Is 70 the same as 12?

    "Loads of mix, didn't care to count." Polling expertise right there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Nigelb said:

    Progozhin's convict battalion ?

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232
    Baza reports that >8 prison transport trucks are transporting 400 prisoners in Tambov to a training area in southern Russia (possibly Wagner’s base in Molkino) likely before going to Ukraine. They say 10-12 prison trucks were seen in Belgorod last night.

    {Oskar Dirlewanger has entered the chat}
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    4 years jail without trial in the UK. Scandalous and completely unacceptable, not just for the suspect but also the interests of justice as witnesses recollections will be less reliable and accurate 4 years on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/15/delays-leave-man-facing-four-years-in-leicester-jail-without-trial

    This sounds odd/wrong:

    When Petkovic’s trial did start, on 7 March 2021, its progress was then heavily delayed by the failure of the court’s air conditioning system in heatwave conditions. The trial collapsed in chaos on 27 July and the jury was discharged.

    “The prison staff would not attend if the temperature in the court went above 23 degrees,” said Swan, of Stokoe Partnership solicitors.


    I know some cases last a long time, but this doesn't sound like one of those.
    23 degrees isn’t that hot?

    That's easily 14 degrees lower than the classrooms I had to teach in and the children had to work in. Albeit I suppose the day in court would be longer.

    If they were getting pissy about 23 degrees I'd say a disciplinary would be in order, because most non-air-conditioned rooms (I.e. most rooms) in England must exceed that on a regular basis in summer.
    ALthough there are recommended minimum temperatures, 13c for manual and 16c for office there is no statutory maximum, the temperature simply has to be "reasonable". The TUC suggestion for office based workers is that 30c is the top end of reasonable but this has no statutory effect.

    23c seems extremely low, especially when the officers are not wearing a dress shirt, wooly trousers, a waist coat, tails, a court gown and a ridiculous horsehair wig to stop any heat getting out the top. But then only dafties would wear something so ridiculous.

    Edit, talking of which, show time.
    They are not wearing stab vests or something are they?
    No, because the accused would be searched before he was brought up from the cell to the court. It used to be 2 police officers or 2 prison officers if he was on remand but these days it is usually group 4 security personnel wearing a white shirt. It's a bit odd.
    That's what I thought - but wanted to check.

    So that is out.

    30C inside ins't pleasant, but I have worked in those conditions.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,304
    Is there an official World Record for the longest queue ever? I would guess the Haj has a good chance of holding the record, although some would probably claim that the queue of Syrians in the Brexit poster is longer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    The pound slides to its weakest level in almost four decades as mounting evidence of a UK recession combines with a rising dollar https://trib.al/kRmHWPr https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1570709878448033793/photo/1
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.

    That queue will be crap and roundly panned by everyone - "They should have stopped at 3"....
    And queue 5 will be straight to streaming
  • Cookie said:

    Labour have had an absolute kicking in Bolton in recent years. Labour councillors are held in particularly low regard. One of the Runworth Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives a couple of years back.
    This is a pretty deprived ward, and very heavily Asian.
    For the tories to go from 11% to 55% Labour must be doing a King Herod. That must be a record for a Lab to Tory swing in recent years
    There is an in depth review on this ward by Britain Elects

    I am not going to post it as it is far too long but worth a read
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    It sounds as though it’s as white as the Colston statue mob.
    You don't have to be black to think that the slave trade was despicable.
    Or indeed to think there’s something uncomfortably ironic in a lot of wealthy white people deciding what is or isn’t acceptable to non-white people in light of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732
    "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

    Trump calls McConnell an ‘absolute Loser’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3645397-trump-calls-mcconnell-an-absolute-loser/
  • thartthart Posts: 139
    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    IshmaelZ said:

    Mr. Malmesbury, the online queue by which you gain access to the queue for the queue for the queue will be known as Queue 4.0.

    That queue will be crap and roundly panned by everyone - "They should have stopped at 3"....
    And queue 5 will be straight to streaming
    We are already watching it...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,732

    We are already at the point where the emotional reaction to the Queen's death has been superceded by distance and formality for many people, and instututions like the BBC need to be aware of that. Like some others, I like the quiet dignity of The Queue, but it's at least a relief that we haven't heard any overblown nonsense from Nicholas Witchell about "a great river of lamentation flowing through the country" for at least a couple of days. I will certainly be watching the Queen's funeral, though.

    King Charles judgement on Nicholas Witchell has aged. Well.


    "I can't bear that man. I mean, he's so awful, he really is."
    Is the royal lapdog now a King Charles Spaniel ?
  • thartthart Posts: 139

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    edited September 16
    thart said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
    Indeed - welcome to PB

    What are you views on

    - Pineapple on pizza
    - Python as a coding language
    - The band Radiohead
    - The quality of the Russian batting order in the recent Test matches

    ?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,719
    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a
    similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    How are you identifying people of mixed heritage? Interview or some sort of scientific testing? Or are you so on point with racial identity metrics that you can “just tell”?

    AIUI a large chunk of especially younger Londoners are of mixed heritage so which column are you putting them into to try and make your point?

    Take a random example, the Duchess of Sussex, I and many others had absolutely no idea that she was mixed heritage with a black mother and identifies as “black” until the day of her wedding. I thought she was of Latino or Spanish heritage.

    Are you counting people who look similar to her as white? Mixed? Black?

    Or will this fuck up your pointless stirring?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    This is interesting from @johnmcternan and changes my perspective on the bonus uncapping story a little https://unherd.com/2022/09/has-liz-truss-trapped-labour/ https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1570686716570406913/photo/1
  • thart said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
    New poster appears yesterday who posts two dozen times on just one "edgy" topic. What are the chances?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    New poster appears yesterday who posts two dozen times on just one "edgy" topic. What are the chances?

    of it being SeanT in a wig?
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is interesting from @johnmcternan and changes my perspective on the bonus uncapping story a little https://unherd.com/2022/09/has-liz-truss-trapped-labour/ https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1570686716570406913/photo/1

    Some of us have said at least part of that on here. We applaud that Liz Truss aims to grow the economy beyond the recent anaemic rate. Speaking personally, I can't see how she will achieve that but the ambition is good.
  • thart said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
    My house is only 20% white. I barely recognise the place anymore.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    boulay said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a
    similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    How are you identifying people of mixed heritage? Interview or some sort of scientific testing? Or are you so on point with racial identity metrics that you can “just tell”?

    AIUI a large chunk of especially younger Londoners are of mixed heritage so which column are you putting them into to try and make your point?

    Take a random example, the Duchess of Sussex, I and many others had absolutely no idea that she was mixed heritage with a black mother and identifies as “black” until the day of her wedding. I thought she was of Latino or Spanish heritage.

    Are you counting people who look similar to her as white? Mixed? Black?

    Or will this fuck up your pointless stirring?

    On a less aggressive note - identifying race on video is an extremely problematic area. In the US, minority groups have (quite rightly) objected to it on the ground that it has been involved in miscarriages of justice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    thart said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    84% - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/populationestimatesbyethnicgroupandreligionenglandandwales/2019

    I think a lot of people are travelling from outside London - at Buckingham Palace they were. My wife went to Westminster yesterday and said the same - lots of people talking about their travel to London, which way was best to get home etc.
    Well the next census results are out soon. Lets see what they say
    My house is only 20% white. I barely recognise the place anymore.
    I've got immigrants everywhere - in the beds, under the beds, eating my food.... They've overrun the place.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    Some of us have said at least part of that on here. We applaud that Liz Truss aims to grow the economy beyond the recent anaemic rate. Speaking personally, I can't see how she will achieve that but the ambition is good.

    Hmmmm

    As others have noted, The Trussketeers argument seems to be that the treasury have been explicitly avoiding growth until they arrived, which is clearly bollocks.

    Also, they get no points for effort. Rewarding millionaires, trashing environmental standards and working conditions in pursuit of "growth" that doesn't deliver growth is not a reason for applause.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Labour lead by six in this week's Westminster voting intention tracker from Techne:

    Lab 41% (-1)
    Con 35% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,647 questioned on 14-15 September. Changes with 7-8 September.

    Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1570667926449004546/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    🚨 🚨

    The number of UK businesses exporting goods to the EU fell BY A THIRD to 18,357 in 2021, from 27,321 in 2020, according to data from HMRC.

    https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    boulay said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a
    similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    How are you identifying people of mixed heritage? Interview or some sort of scientific testing? Or are you so on point with racial identity metrics that you can “just tell”?

    AIUI a large chunk of especially younger Londoners are of mixed heritage so which column are you putting them into to try and make your point?

    Take a random example, the Duchess of Sussex, I and many others had absolutely no idea that she was mixed heritage with a black mother and identifies as “black” until the day of her wedding. I thought she was of Latino or Spanish heritage.

    Are you counting people who look similar to her as white? Mixed? Black?

    Or will this fuck up your pointless stirring?

    On a less aggressive note - identifying race on video is an extremely problematic area. In the US, minority groups have (quite rightly) objected to it on the ground that it has been involved in miscarriages of justice.
    Sure

    I was going to do a count, but the beeb livestream is off air. Realistically, you can classify people as DG for definite gammon, and EO everyone else. This obv tends to overstate racial minorities. And having eyeballed the feed to formulate this sophisticated methodology I have to say DGs look to be 90%+ to me.

    Not sure why this subject is tendentious. It is surely important and interesting, and if you want to construct a narrative out of it I would have thought both L and R wing variants were available.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    Scott_xP said:

    This is interesting from @johnmcternan and changes my perspective on the bonus uncapping story a little https://unherd.com/2022/09/has-liz-truss-trapped-labour/ https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1570686716570406913/photo/1

    I don’t see removing the cap will add anything to growth. Although the other policies in terms of de-regulation might but overall will come at a political cost .



  • Scott_xP said:

    Some of us have said at least part of that on here. We applaud that Liz Truss aims to grow the economy beyond the recent anaemic rate. Speaking personally, I can't see how she will achieve that but the ambition is good.

    Hmmmm

    As others have noted, The Trussketeers argument seems to be that the treasury have been explicitly avoiding growth until they arrived, which is clearly bollocks.

    Also, they get no points for effort. Rewarding millionaires, trashing environmental standards and working conditions in pursuit of "growth" that doesn't deliver growth is not a reason for applause.
    Its not bollocks, the Treasury have been going for an orthodoxy of ever higher taxes, which strangles growth.

    I get that you've got all the complexity of Morrissey singing Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now since the Brexit vote, but maybe give more than one week to determine if new policies do or don't deliver growth.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Some of us have said at least part of that on here. We applaud that Liz Truss aims to grow the economy beyond the recent anaemic rate. Speaking personally, I can't see how she will achieve that but the ambition is good.

    Hmmmm

    As others have noted, The Trussketeers argument seems to be that the treasury have been explicitly avoiding growth until they arrived, which is clearly bollocks.

    Also, they get no points for effort. Rewarding millionaires, trashing environmental standards and working conditions in pursuit of "growth" that doesn't deliver growth is not a reason for applause.
    Growth that involves picking up pennies, or even pound coins, in front of a steamroller is not good growth. Eventually you get splatted.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited September 16
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour lead by six in this week's Westminster voting intention tracker from Techne:

    Lab 41% (-1)
    Con 35% (+1)
    LibDem 10% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,647 questioned on 14-15 September. Changes with 7-8 September.

    Details & data at http://www.technetracker.co.uk https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1570667926449004546/photo/1

    Somehow this makes me dream of a better and more representative world of 32 Green and 65 Lib Dem MP's. It will be further away if Labour feels too confident to seek a pact for PR, though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Tens of thousands of people divided into 3 pens in Southwark Park. The queue is now officially ‘paused’ for six hours because the park is at capacity. Those at the back face a 14 hour wait. #QueenElizabeth #lyinginstatequeue https://twitter.com/ChloeKeedyITV/status/1570717671045607425/video/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    IshmaelZ said:

    boulay said:

    thart said:

    moonshine said:

    thart said:

    Endillion said:

    thart said:

    Ive just counted 70 people in latest queue livestream. Only 3 from ethnic minorities or less than 5%. The bigger the sample size the better

    How many would you expect to see, assuming they were equally represented?
    Ok white population of london likely 50% now but in uk as a whole likely 80%. Lets assume half of the queue is from people outside london. So we split the difference between the 2 figures to get 65% expected white proportion of the queue. Reality is around 95%. So way out of line
    You lot are supposed to be polling experts and you’re really having a conversation based on a sample size of 12?

    Edit - I see this one is based on 70. I watched the other night for 10-20 mins and saw loads of mix in terms of race, age, social class. I didn’t care to count.

    You didnt care to count. That says it all. At some point when i have time i will do a bigger count of several hundred. Yes ethnic minorities are there but a very low percentage. I will also do a count of the younger people. If ethnic minorities are a
    similar proportion of the young there then we are not looking at an age related phenomena at all
    How are you identifying people of mixed heritage? Interview or some sort of scientific testing? Or are you so on point with racial identity metrics that you can “just tell”?

    AIUI a large chunk of especially younger Londoners are of mixed heritage so which column are you putting them into to try and make your point?

    Take a random example, the Duchess of Sussex, I and many others had absolutely no idea that she was mixed heritage with a black mother and identifies as “black” until the day of her wedding. I thought she was of Latino or Spanish heritage.

    Are you counting people who look similar to her as white? Mixed? Black?

    Or will this fuck up your pointless stirring?

    On a less aggressive note - identifying race on video is an extremely problematic area. In the US, minority groups have (quite rightly) objected to it on the ground that it has been involved in miscarriages of justice.
    Sure

    I was going to do a count, but the beeb livestream is off air. Realistically, you can classify people as DG for definite gammon, and EO everyone else. This obv tends to overstate racial minorities. And having eyeballed the feed to formulate this sophisticated methodology I have to say DGs look to be 90%+ to me.

    Not sure why this subject is tendentious. It is surely important and interesting, and if you want to construct a narrative out of it I would have thought both L and R wing variants were available.
    Was thinking about this - 90 is low as a sample, because of grouping effects. My wife said that nearly everyone in the queue was in a group of at least 2. She went with her sister.
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