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If young voters actually voted then be afraid – politicalbetting.com
If young voters actually voted then be afraid – politicalbetting.com
New: J.L. Partners poll of 8,004 UK adults for @ukonward % support for running the UK with "a strong leader who doesn't have to bother with parliament/elections"All: 46%18-34s: 61%35-54s: 49%Over-55s: 29%Tables: https://t.co/s2s4W7swkrReport: https://t.co/7LYxObZiNg
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Edit: third like Charles…
Edit. Not Charles the Fourth, either.
The realisation that they might be the impediments thrown away comes later in life.
And this is a preliminary count. From 14 hours ago.
https://twitter.com/LivFaustDieJung/status/1568726055120420865
Fuck it let's do this. In conjunction with yesterday's numbers, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost to capture or destruction (mostly) capture between Kherson/Kharkiv: (in rough equivalency) 27.5 companies or 6.8 battalions or 3.4 *brigades* (of 3 battalions). The breakdown…
is (vics or cannons):
Tanks: 40 (4 full strength co's)
APCs: 35
Command/Comms: 11
Engineering: 4
Air Def: 9
IFV: 50
TIGR/MRAP type: 5
Logi/Transpo: 47
(plus an Su-25 & Su-34)
As I've noted before, this is raw combat/direct combat support power, not the full complement of fuel…
trucks, supply trucks, vans, staff cars etc etc. This is a rough equivalency using varied equipment types according to how many a T/O plt, co, bn, or brigade would have at full strength. By way of comparison, this would be like if the US 10th Mountain Division lost EVERY vehicle…
or cannon it owned, and then an adjacent brigade lost half it's strength.
There is no way to spin this as anything other than a MASSIVE, unseen since WWII (in such a short time), loss of Russian equipment that definitely outpaces Russia's capacity to reconstitute….
If you don't vote, there's not much point complaining that things are not to your liking.
Perhaps we will hear less about the "wisdom" of youth today because clearly many of them are impulsive and get swept away with sentiments they don't understand without putting an awful lot of thinking into them.
https://t.co/s2s4W7swkr
https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results
Separately, there are reports that the Ukrainian and Russian forces on the Kherson front are in negotiations - Russian troops allowed to leave for Crimea as long as they leave behind all equipment and weapons. Apparently, there's been no serious fighting there over the past 48 hours as the two commands speak.
Young people are impatient for revolution so they can live out the rest of their lives in a land of milk and honey. So it was in the 60s when I was a revolting youth. Nothing much has changed since (apart from everything else).
Who was not in his twenties
Red?
Or, of course
The Future belongs to me!
There will be a wild five minutes*, first of course.
*Five minutes not to be taken as literal. No guarantees provided. Buyers risk. All rights reserved. May contain nuts, May contain nutters. May contain trained Marxist nutters.
In due course most of them will inherit much of the property their parents had too in true Tory fashion
Therefore — authoritarianism.
Should be allowed to leave for Russia.
Even old people don't read papers. No paper has a circulation of tens of millions to suggest that an entire generation reads it.
Who knows? But the impression is not one of stability.
Almost nothing made of it. Not even in New York Times.
Let’s explore what is misleading then shall we.
I thought it was just plain misleading for some media, like the telegraph, to tell us what inflation will now top off at with the governments freeze reducing it - they can’t actually know. The way it works is, if energy bills stop going up, even if they remain astronomical the less growth in energy bills, the less they can help grow inflation. However it’s just speculation what inflation will top at in UK before you then do the 4-5% reduction. It’s easy to believe a scenario where a weak government can lose control over wage growth in the same coming period.
In exactly the same way Truss government did not take an overall cost of their energy policy into parliament last week, because they literally can’t know what it is - the actual cost depends what happens to energy markets - hence they are struggling to cost it up and share the figure with us, also present an exit plan with it.
I thought the institute of directors were spot on it their response last Thursday, “What we need now is an external reassurance that the scale of the intervention does not jeopardise the public finances. That’s why it’s crucially important that the Office for Budget Responsibility can swiftly produce its independent assessment of the impact on government debt and the wider macroeconomy.”
In exactly the same way Truss government are trying to avoid detailed scrutiny, IoD are expecting OBR scrutiny of the plan to flag up the need for future tax rises in order to protect weak public finances. This is where I see the penny has not dropped with a lot of you PBers still backing the governments needlessly expensive freeze plan - Truss may have gone into the commons last week saying the Lady’s not for Taxing, but her policies for weak public finances REEK and SCREAM future taxes (especially if spurning the available windfall tax, which Lady Thatcher would not have spurned).
It’s clear as day to me who is trying to pull the wool over the eyes 🙂
(Not that I mean Mourdant to die, before it’s misconstrued and I get another ban).
That's a bad, foolish approach to take, but it ought to give those in charge pause for thought.
First, why are the young so uninvested in society as it is? The answers to that, as expressed in that recent Telegraph headline "It's time for the young to pay for us and stop complaining" make that pretty obvious. There are many delightful Baby Boomers, but also many selfish cocks who have pulled the ladder up behind them.
Second, what's happened to democracy? I blame a disagreement about the meaning of "Loser's Consent". It can either be the duty of the losers to accept the result until next time. Or it can be the duty of the winners to earn the consent of the other side. In reality, they have to coexist. In recent years, we've had a bit too much of the first and not enough of the second.
Smart Tories have always believed in reform to prevent revolution. Are there any Smart Tories left?
'But one of the biggest divides that did come to pass was between older voters and those aged under 30, who became even “less enamoured of President Trump than before”.
“The other age groups, 30-44, 45-64, 65 and over, it’s a pretty close divide between Biden and Trump. So it’s really young people who are overwhelmingly anti-Trump and that’s really noticeable.”'
https://tinyurl.com/3623pxa2
Some gripes on Twitter about it being inappropriate on the eve of September 11.
I suppose if you let them go to Crimea and then something happens to the bridge, they are then trapped there?
The whole test series is looking a bit of a mess for the Ruskies.
It reminds me of his self-appointed role as head of the inquisition over Keir’s curry.
The windfall tax is largely optical, but Truss is on the wrong side of political opinion.
It’s not helped by the fact she loudly and repeatedly proclaimed no hand-outs during the interminable leadership campaign, then delivered the mother of all hand-outs as her very first act.
In other words, she lied.
Even my San Francisco-resident Ghanaian friend (ex-London) messaged me to tell me it was a disgrace.
No wonder the tory party have driven themselves congenitally insane trying to work out what the fuck old people want and then trying to give it to them.
The reality is that society is not homogenous. There are old supporters of extinction rebellion. There are young fascists, libdems and libertarians.
Basically, it's complicated, and one should be wary of drawing sweeping conclusions.
Without the hinterland, and a hinterland connecting to Russia overland, Crimea pretty much exists at the whim of Ukraine.
A Ukraine which will be, now, for the rest of our lives (at minimum), heavily armed and very anti-Russian state.
One thing that's interesting to me is the question elides 'strong leaders' with not bothering with parliament/elections. This US study separated these things and found that younger people aren't as keen on strong leaders, but are more sceptical about democracy.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/03/13/is-public-sentiment-shifting-toward-support-of-authoritarianism-not-really/
"On the one hand, only nine percent of adults ages 23 to 29 favor strong leaders, a much smaller share than for any other age cohort. On the other hand, 29 percent of these young Americans say that democracy is not always preferable to other political forms, a far higher share than older Americans, who can remember the Cold War and even the fight against fascism in World War II."
Even that's not a very good look. First role of a constitutional monarchy is don't make HM look silly.
Off topic
I am pleased to read of Andrew's new role as that of Corgi wrangler.
We've sold young people a lie, namely that if you get a degree, it's the route to riches. That was always going to be impossible given the natural small number of high paying jobs out there. All we have done is created a sullen class of individuals who are in debt, feel they have been cheated and, worse, because they view themselves as superior in knowledge, believe their views are right and that they must be accommodated to.
In addition, those who didn't go to university are made to feel worthless, shut out of many careers even those such as nursing which they could have done before.
Contrast that with a few decades back. If you left school at 16, you weren't automatically thought a failure. In fact, it was seen as the default in many cases. You found yourself a job and trade, and you made your own life (in many cases).
Reverse this stupid obsession with pushing people to Higher Education.
I traveled extensively in the US before 9/11, and you always had to step through X-ray machines.
The reality is that airport security doesn't catch everything. Indeed, the numbers are really quite scary about the percentage of weapons that are not spotted.
And if the weapons you carry onboard are such that a normal person could have accidentally left in their luggage (i.e. a kitchen knife), then all you will ever get from airport security is ticking off.
The last accession in 1952 took place when NZ was barely independent and fully identified as part of a family of *British* nations, with the UK (and the Queen) at its head of the family.
NZ just isn’t that country anymore and the risk for monarchists is that they look irrelevant and at worst imperialist if they pretend otherwise.
If the monarchy wants NZ to avoid becoming a republic, it needs to find a way to renew its relevance. It can’t be a just a bunch of eccentric British aristocrats.
It would need to become - as some have hinted above - a conscious guarantor of NZ’s democracy and constitution - embodied in the Treaty of Waitangi, the founding “partnership” between Crown and Māori.
Charles needs to start practicing his Māori.
I presume similar dynamics are at play in Canada and even Australia.
IIRC one security consultant demonstrated this by getting a gun through the metal detectors at the Capitol Hill building and into a Congressional Committee hearing.
I simply don't believe this poll. Neither the figures for old or young are credible in terms of support for a strong leader without elections. This isn't Russia.
Ukraine is going to have the pause, consolidate & regroup for now I suspect, otherwise they’ll be completely overextended & vulnerable to a counter-attack. Some of their troops have probably been going for 72 hours straight.
My daughters will be 18 in a few years. It's very hard to view them going to university with any enthusiasm.
http://www.republic.org.nz/latestblog/2021/11/17/opinion-poll-44-republic-50-monarchy-after-the-queen
@dpatrikarakos
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1h
There is chatter on #Ukraine 🇺🇦 channels that I stress is unconfirmed: 1. #Russia 🇷🇺 units in Kherson began negotiations to surrender. 2. Fighting has broken out RU & Kadyrov units in the area.
As job of Chechens is largely to terrorise RU into fighting on these could be linked.
https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos