For viewers in Scotland - estimated times of the late Queen’s hearse:
Where the eff is the drive past the Bristol Bar and three times round Ibrox?!
You do know that virtually everyone else on this site finds your Glasgow-centred sectarian obsession really weird, right?
I’m glad that virtually everyone else on PB finally has a spokesman. Perhaps you could get a royal herald type tabard whipped up to wear for your announcements?
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
When I lived in Tower Hill, every now and then a convoy of black Range Rovers would roar across the bridge, usually late at night. Alway four blokes in each vehicle, funky aerials on most of them. Local rumour was that it was the Hereford Boat Club, from a base in South London somewhere.
Was about as subtle and secret as a brick through the window…
Might be all sorts of other things, of course, coming from South London!
They had blue lights, but weren’t police. The police, if they were about would stop traffic to let them through.
Would happen more often around the times of high security alerts…
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
You're a Tory hater. If she wasn't on the tour, you'd call that disgraceful too.
No, I would not. I would say the same about any politician who tried to make use of our popuular Head of State in this way.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Was there a tour like this in 1952? Even if there was, Elizabeth + Churchill is a rather different dynamic to Charles + Truss.
I just don't see how the PM comes out of this without a diminished reputation.
QEII did a nationwide tour, and a Commonwealth Tour in 53-4, but not with Churchill, I think.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Quite. The key issue is what is the Commonwealth? What are its aims, what binds its members? Is it ceremonial or shoukd it have economuc and political goals? And if so, clearly the leadership and organisation requires review P.s. fiji is a republic
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Reads like a Downing St comms cock up rather than a hasty intervention then reverse ferret over plans that have been in place for decades. But haters gonna hate….
People in their jobs a handful of days over egged the pudding - sack the lot! General Election now!
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Quite. The key issue is what is the Commonwealth? What are its aims, what binds its members? Is it ceremonial or shoukd it have economuc and political goals? And if so, clearly the leadership and organisation requires review
The leaders of the commonwealth nations seem to value it as all-of-the-above.
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
You're a Tory hater. If she wasn't on the tour, you'd call that disgraceful too.
No, I would not. I would say the same about any politician who tried to make use of our popuular Head of State in this way.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Was there a tour like this in 1952? Even if there was, Elizabeth + Churchill is a rather different dynamic to Charles + Truss.
I just don't see how the PM comes out of this without a diminished reputation.
QEII did a nationwide tour, and a Commonwealth Tour in 53-4, but not with Churchill, I think.
Was Churchill popular in 1953/4? I wasn't there.
Yes, but rarely allowed out. Discovered later that he was pretty well out of it!
I'm still waiting for Liz Truss to produce evidence of the creeping anti-semitism within the 'woke' Civil Service that she referred to during her leadership campaign. I think I'll have a long wait.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
Im agreeing with you
You mean I got riled up for no reason?
Yesssssss. And now i want to fight like a belligerent old drunk in the pub. Ill knock your damn block off i will
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
When I lived in Tower Hill, every now and then a convoy of black Range Rovers would roar across the bridge, usually late at night. Alway four blokes in each vehicle, funky aerials on most of them. Local rumour was that it was the Hereford Boat Club, from a base in South London somewhere.
Was about as subtle and secret as a brick through the window…
Blokes wearing funky aerials don't sound very inconspicuous.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
Chucking out the Tsar didn't lead to sweetness and light. I can't see that happening this time either.
Though military failure is a big spur to revolution, revolutions rarely result in governments amenable to the national adversary.
I'm still waiting for Liz Truss to produce evidence of the creeping anti-semitism within the 'woke' Civil Service that she referred to during her leadership campaign. I think I'll have a long wait.
That was so funny because she ended up getting roasted by Jewish groups for repeating anti-semitic tropes.
I'm still waiting for Liz Truss to produce evidence of the creeping anti-semitism within the 'woke' Civil Service that she referred to during her leadership campaign. I think I'll have a long wait.
For the war, it means that we are seeing the disintegration of Russian forces in Ukraine. They may be able to stabilise their lines temporarily, but we have crossed a point of no return. Russia's forces were previously poorly equipped, supplied and of low morale. To that list you can now add terrified of encirclement…
The Russians are not going to be able to pull this together - we are witnessing an army in rapid decline, it is just a question of the speed at which it declines…
But what does this mean for Russia?
Well, first and foremost it means that Putin could be finished. This has been his war. And it has not only failed, but achieved the opposite of what he said it would: Russia is now ostracised, sanctioned, has unified its enemies, and is about to have its army defeated in the field. This may seem like a good thing but there is only one thing worse than a strong Russia, and that is a weak one.
A weak Russia, with its leader defenestrated, leaves many unknown questions. Could there be a coup? Who takes over after Putin? Does Russia stay whole? What happens to the nuclear weapons — and Russia has over 5,000 of them while all of this is happening?
So while everyone’s eyes are focused on what is happening in Ukraine, I hope someone is thinking about what may be shortly to happen to Russia.
It’s far too early to write off Russia in this war. They could stabilise the front - as much from “exhaustion”* of Ukrainian forces as anything else.
*cumulative losses of men and equipment in the attacking force plus running down stocks of ammunition and fuel.
I would agree. If it isn't too crass to borrow a sporting analogy the Ukrainians have scored a goal and appear to have the momentum. But we don't know the score or how long is left on the clock. And even if we did you need to keep going 100% till the final whistle.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
Im agreeing with you
You mean I got riled up for no reason?
Yesssssss. And now i want to fight like a belligerent old drunk in the pub. Ill knock your damn block off i will
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
What? Are you saying there is no difference between intending to attend 3 or 4 of the same gigs, and travelling in company to those gigs? If I decide to do the same will i be "on tour with" Chas n Cams?
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
What? Are you saying there is no difference between intending to attend 3 or 4 of the same gigs, and travelling in company to those gigs? If I decide to do the same will i be "on tour with" Chas n Cams?
So, I have been on tour with Kasabian? How cool am I!
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
German and Italian cars for the win, British cars are shit.
Although my first car was Swedish.
Italian cars? They make JLR products appear reliable.
I’ll stick with the German car for myself, but for government ministers and the royal family of course a British car is important.
The only reason the French still make big cars, is to sell them to their own government. Can you imagine Macron in a Mercedes?
I did enjoy my prancing horse car and their then subsidiary's car.
Prancing horses are great when they’re someone else’s, and can be handed back at the end of the day - if they don’t end up as customers of the RAC.
As part of my mid life crisis I am thinking about getting a G wagon.
Lol. If you do, make sure it’s the new model. The old one handles like the 40-year-old truck it is underneath, and the AMG versions are quite hillarious in their (severe lack of) handling. You’ll look like a footballer driving a G-class in Manchester though!
My midlife crisis car is going to be either an E63 or a 911.
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Fiji is a republic!
I though Fiji had a Royal family (not ours). Don't know why I thought that.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
German and Italian cars for the win, British cars are shit.
Although my first car was Swedish.
Italian cars? They make JLR products appear reliable.
I’ll stick with the German car for myself, but for government ministers and the royal family of course a British car is important.
The only reason the French still make big cars, is to sell them to their own government. Can you imagine Macron in a Mercedes?
I did enjoy my prancing horse car and their then subsidiary's car.
Prancing horses are great when they’re someone else’s, and can be handed back at the end of the day - if they don’t end up as customers of the RAC.
As part of my mid life crisis I am thinking about getting a G wagon.
Lol. If you do, make sure it’s the new model. The old one handles like the 40-year-old truck it is underneath, and the AMG versions are quite hillarious in their (severe lack of) handling. You’ll look like a footballer driving a G-class in Manchester though!
My midlife crisis car is going to be either an E63 or a 911.
You see I'm already doing the most mid life crisis a man in his forties does, I'm planning on getting married to a woman in her 20s.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
Chucking out the Tsar didn't lead to sweetness and light. I can't see that happening this time either.
Though military failure is a big spur to revolution, revolutions rarely result in governments amenable to the national adversary.
I think the fundamental problem is this. We see all these liberally inclined people in Moscow and St Petersburg who one might think would be in favour of political reform. But their middle class lifestyles depend upon extracting resources from places where the people are dirt poor. Is political change really in their economic interests.
I'm still waiting for Liz Truss to produce evidence of the creeping anti-semitism within the 'woke' Civil Service that she referred to during her leadership campaign. I think I'll have a long wait.
We all misunderstood her.
She told us that the Civil Service was anti-semantic. Unable to communicate logic or meaning.
And if the last few hours are anything to go by, she has a point.
Highlighting how Russia’s retreat is raising pressure on the Kremlin, Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya and a staunch loyalist of President Vladimir V. Putin, criticized the Russian Army’s leadership on Sunday and voiced his dismay over its performance in northeastern Ukraine.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Reads like a Downing St comms cock up rather than a hasty intervention then reverse ferret over plans that have been in place for decades. But haters gonna hate….
People in their jobs a handful of days over egged the pudding - sack the lot! General Election now!
"Haters." I am instinctively a monarchist and a tory. That doesn't prevent me from taking an informed and intelligent interest in what the king and the PM are up to.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
That might well be true. But it doesn’t really change Russia’s lot at this point. Their armed forces have been severely weakened, as has their economic capacity. The resolve of the international interests aligned against them is unlikely to weaken because an even bigger bully is in charge. And a new leader with no existing public loyalty to speak of might be even more way of attempting general mobilisation than Putin is.
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
German and Italian cars for the win, British cars are shit.
Although my first car was Swedish.
Italian cars? They make JLR products appear reliable.
I’ll stick with the German car for myself, but for government ministers and the royal family of course a British car is important.
The only reason the French still make big cars, is to sell them to their own government. Can you imagine Macron in a Mercedes?
I did enjoy my prancing horse car and their then subsidiary's car.
Prancing horses are great when they’re someone else’s, and can be handed back at the end of the day - if they don’t end up as customers of the RAC.
As part of my mid life crisis I am thinking about getting a G wagon.
Lol. If you do, make sure it’s the new model. The old one handles like the 40-year-old truck it is underneath, and the AMG versions are quite hillarious in their (severe lack of) handling. You’ll look like a footballer driving a G-class in Manchester though!
My midlife crisis car is going to be either an E63 or a 911.
You see I'm already doing the most mid life crisis a man in his forties does, I'm planning on getting married to a woman in her 20s.
A G-wagen would be the cherry on the parfait.
I’ll stick with the same-age wife I have already - much cheaper than swapping for a younger model, and leaves more money for the car budget!
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
They may lose in the North. But unless the southern front collapsed as well….
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
German and Italian cars for the win, British cars are shit.
Although my first car was Swedish.
Italian cars? They make JLR products appear reliable.
I’ll stick with the German car for myself, but for government ministers and the royal family of course a British car is important.
The only reason the French still make big cars, is to sell them to their own government. Can you imagine Macron in a Mercedes?
I did enjoy my prancing horse car and their then subsidiary's car.
Prancing horses are great when they’re someone else’s, and can be handed back at the end of the day - if they don’t end up as customers of the RAC.
As part of my mid life crisis I am thinking about getting a G wagon.
Lol. If you do, make sure it’s the new model. The old one handles like the 40-year-old truck it is underneath, and the AMG versions are quite hillarious in their (severe lack of) handling. You’ll look like a footballer driving a G-class in Manchester though!
My midlife crisis car is going to be either an E63 or a 911.
You see I'm already doing the most mid life crisis a man in his forties does, I'm planning on getting married to a woman in her 20s.
A G-wagen would be the cherry on the parfait.
I’ll stick with the same-age wife I have already - much cheaper than swapping for a younger model, and leaves more money for the car budget!
A chap I knew justified a P100D (some special variant of) to his wife on the basis that it was a 4 saloon car, so he could do the school run in it…
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
That might well be true. But it doesn’t really change Russia’s lot at this point. Their armed forces have been severely weakened, as has their economic capacity. The resolve of the international interests aligned against them is unlikely to weaken because an even bigger bully is in charge. And a new leader with no existing public loyalty to speak of might be even more way of attempting general mobilisation than Putin is.
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
Not to mention that if Europe doesn’t buy Russian gas, it will require a vast investment to setup the infrastructure to export that gas to anywhere else. Lots of high tech that is currently embargoed.
So they would face making that investment without Western cash, and with great difficulty in getting the equipment needed.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Fiji is a republic!
I though Fiji had a Royal family (not ours). Don't know why I thought that.
It did, 1871-1987, but the Royal (Cakobau) family was invented and propped up by the British. It's complicated.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
That might well be true. But it doesn’t really change Russia’s lot at this point. Their armed forces have been severely weakened, as has their economic capacity. The resolve of the international interests aligned against them is unlikely to weaken because an even bigger bully is in charge. And a new leader with no existing public loyalty to speak of might be even more way of attempting general mobilisation than Putin is.
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
Russia will have to supply gas to someone so that Ukraine can take the revenues in reparations
One positive consequence of everything that has happened this week is that it makes the tide of ungenerous and small-minded nationalism that helped carry Truss to the senior role a little harder to sustain , without looking ungracious , for a little while anyway.
In the last two days the lights of the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State Building have been dimmed, all EU delegation buildings and American embassies have had their flags at half mast, Macron has delivered both an effusive televised speech and written statement standing in front a Union Jack, Tricolore and EU flag, the Brandenburg Gate has had a vast Union Jack projected onto it, and even the EU Commission has lowered its flags to half mast.
This illustrates two things - Britain's real established place and location in the global geopolitical architecture, and simultaneously simply a reciprocation of the generosity and graciousness herself the Queen showed to our allies. At an extension, it's also simply the Queen's own character that contrasts so sharply with the ungraciousness and abrasiveness of the last few years. As the Beatles sang and culminated the 1960's with, "in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make".
Extraordinary. I would have thought the optics of a foreign car would be worse.
The only British option (apart from RR/Bentley) would be Jaguar XF which is an aging piece of crap, only comes with joke IL4 engines and presumably would be difficuly to up armour.
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
They may lose in the North. But unless the southern front collapsed as well….
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
Hitting the Kerch bridge would leave them stranded in that case.
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Quite. The key issue is what is the Commonwealth? What are its aims, what binds its members? Is it ceremonial or shoukd it have economuc and political goals? And if so, clearly the leadership and organisation requires review
The leaders of the commonwealth nations seem to value it as all-of-the-above.
It’s a forum where they get to discuss issues of concern with an equal footing with the UK (which is at the top tier of nations in terms of diplomatic influence).
That feedback is then played into G7 and other discussions… the UK shamelessly uses the role of spokesman for the commonwealth when it is helpful to do so
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Fiji is a republic!
I though Fiji had a Royal family (not ours). Don't know why I thought that.
It did, 1871-1987, but the Royal (Cakobau) family was invented and propped up by the British. It's complicated.
Fiji seems to function as a kind of aristocratic Republic.
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
Yet, despite everything, the past 70 years have probably been the best in our nation's history.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Reads like a Downing St comms cock up rather than a hasty intervention then reverse ferret over plans that have been in place for decades. But haters gonna hate….
People in their jobs a handful of days over egged the pudding - sack the lot! General Election now!
That's an interesting one.
One of BoJO's more serious mistakes in my view was that he did not have a competent backroom / majordomo setup.
Do we have any indications for Liz Truss yet? Who is in the backup team?
On the -ve side, there has been this. Yet the handling of the Energy Debate looked competent politically, with obvious long-term work having been done, and Mr Starmer left flapping in the wind with nothing to say.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
That might well be true. But it doesn’t really change Russia’s lot at this point. Their armed forces have been severely weakened, as has their economic capacity. The resolve of the international interests aligned against them is unlikely to weaken because an even bigger bully is in charge. And a new leader with no existing public loyalty to speak of might be even more way of attempting general mobilisation than Putin is.
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
Russia will have to supply gas to someone so that Ukraine can take the revenues in reparations
Not really. There was always a big disparity between the importance of Russian gas to their total export earnings, and the share of Europe’s energy mix. It’s why it was obvious for months that Russia would seek to weaponise it. It’s the oil that they make their serious lolly from, and that can easily be sold elsewhere without infrastructure investments totalling hundreds of billions as per gas. As has already happened in fact. Though they might struggle to maintain oil production rates if the technology sanctions persist.
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
They may lose in the North. But unless the southern front collapsed as well….
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
The Russians are still losing ground near Kherson. Archangelsk is close to being surrounded.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case.
I don't know where you've gotten that assumption from, plenty of people have made the point they might not be, particularly in such a chaotic situation.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
That might well be true. But it doesn’t really change Russia’s lot at this point. Their armed forces have been severely weakened, as has their economic capacity. The resolve of the international interests aligned against them is unlikely to weaken because an even bigger bully is in charge. And a new leader with no existing public loyalty to speak of might be even more way of attempting general mobilisation than Putin is.
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
Not to mention that if Europe doesn’t buy Russian gas, it will require a vast investment to setup the infrastructure to export that gas to anywhere else. Lots of high tech that is currently embargoed.
So they would face making that investment without Western cash, and with great difficulty in getting the equipment needed.
Any new Russian leader, strong man or not, will be looking to secure his position with three groups: the siloviki, the oligarchs and the broader public. Two of the three groups need an end to sanctions and the first knows Ukraine is lost to them. The rational position is to pull out now, and the one impediment is Putin's loss of face. A new leader need not worry about that.
Extraordinary. I would have thought the optics of a foreign car would be worse.
The only British option (apart from RR/Bentley) would be Jaguar XF which is an aging piece of crap, only comes with joke IL4 engines and presumably would be difficuly to up armour.
What would be wrong with the Jaguar I pace?
Nissan Qashqai, made in Sunderland. Something something Red Wall something.
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
They may lose in the North. But unless the southern front collapsed as well….
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
Surely that's the wrong way round, it cuts off supply from Crimea.
From earlier reading, I understand the whole area North of Crimea, between Kherson, Enerhodar and Melitopol, is a mix of fenland and duneland and provides little cover (Google maps shows it dotted with very small grid pattern agricultural villages. When Russia were broadly successful in getting quickly to first big towns in the South in February it was a matter of necessity.
Ukraine, if an when they take Kherson, will have the same leap to make, and obviously their bridge destruction will become a hindrance at that point.
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
I'd add tertiary education, for the moment at least, to the world class list, as well as sport. The arts, science, finance, education and sport are basically all the levers of soft power that you need. If used wisely, they are going to reap huge dividends. Inevitable declinism is so utterly boring. It really doesn't have to be that way.
Rumours that the Russians are abandoning Kharkiv oblast. This makes a degree of sense after they abandoned, Kyiv Chernihiv ans Sumy. I would have thought they might try to stop the Ukrainians getting over the Oskil river.
John Simpson @JohnSimpsonNews · 1h Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
They may lose in the North. But unless the southern front collapsed as well….
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
The Russians are still losing ground near Kherson. Archangelsk is close to being surrounded.
The Kherson pocket is about feeding Russian troops and military resources into a meat grinder. It will collapse when ready. The interesting thing will be how quickly Ukraine is able to pivot south and West from its Kharkiv offensive to take Donetsk and then as Malms says, Mariupol. One assumes that’s a spring offensive but you never know. It would be great to achieve it this side of winter, then destroy the Kerch Bridge so the troops in crimea and the Black Sea coast have to suffer with insufficient resupplies all winter. We might need to see some more action against the Black Sea fleet for that I guess.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
Fiji is a republic!
I though Fiji had a Royal family (not ours). Don't know why I thought that.
It did, 1871-1987, but the Royal (Cakobau) family was invented and propped up by the British. It's complicated.
Fiji seems to function as a kind of aristocratic Republic.
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
I'd add tertiary education, for the moment at least, to the world class list, as well as sport. The arts, science, finance, education and sport are basically all the levers of soft power that you need. If used wisely, they are going to reap huge dividends. Inevitable declinism is so utterly boring. It really doesn't have to be that way.
Are we really that great at finance? We were at the heart of a terrible global financial crisis little more than a decade ago with enormous banks that had decided they no longer needed capital.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
Not sure who decided to put out the original statement but given the monarch is supposed to be politically neutral if eye brows were raised they were right to be.
Jeez, not this one again. Terrible poling question, based on political talking points with no context.
The companies making money are Saudi Aramco and Qatargas - how does the UK government tax them?
Taxes on UK domestic extraction are currently 69%, by how much should these rise?
A question to which Starmer had no answer and just blustered in Parliament.
Good morning
Starmer was caught out by Mark Harper in the HOC and his reaction showed he did not understand the difference between global profits (170 billion) and UK profits of 40 billion currently taxed at 65%
I expect the COE in his emergency budget will call out Starmer and others on this misconception
There is a serious, really serious political problem for the Tories. Why you don't get this is puzzling. It may well be the case that the domestic energy companies aren't going to make intergalactic profits. Just vast ones. The public will not understand the nuanced differences, but they WILL understand the sneering arrogance of this government defending the profits of these companies over the taxpayer.
Why can't you see this? Truss is wrong here on a galactic scale, and having backed the oil companies over individuals the political tax will be crippling.
For me I am fully aware a windfall tax won't raise a significant proportion of the energy handouts the government is giving. The principle of everyone, including businesses, doing their bit in a crisis is an important one however, so even if it raises another £5bn out of £200bn I think it very much worthwhile.
So without necessarily disagreeing with you, how much above 65% do you think the tax rate should be on energy companies?
I don't work for HMRC so would leave it up to them to come up with some suggestions that could raise more. Off feel I would start by reducing the 91% investment rebate or perhaps change it to only apply to green investment with a much lower rate for fossil fuel investment.
A number of companies (including the one I am currently drilling wells for) have already decided to abandon a whole series of UK development campaigns on the back of the Windfall tax in spite of the investment rebate. If you want to drive the rest out then all you do is accelerate the end of the North Sea and make yourself more reliant on imported O&G. Not exactly the best way to deal with an energy crisis.
Excellent news. Anything that helps to keep it in the ground gets my vote. The underlying cause of the energy crisis has been insufficient urgency in the development of renewables, and anything that helps push progress on that front is a good thing. Hydrocarbons should be exploited only when necessary, not squandered as they have been on providing unsustainably cheap energy thus hindering the development of clean alternatives.
Again., stupidly short sighted. Part of the reason for the current energy crisis is that we decided to cut back on oil and gas production long before we could ever have sufficient renewables to fill the gap and so have to rely on imports.
Stanislaw Lem, the great Polish Sci-F writer once wrote a story about a king who wanted all his subjects to become amphibians and so, to make them develop gills he started to raise the water level in his country by an inch a year. He couldn't understand it when all his subjects drowned.
Your policy is much the same. Wishing it would be any other way doesn't change reality.
If you don't understand why renewables would have been developed more quickly if the price of fossil fuels had reflected their finite nature and the environmental damage they cause, then you don't know the first principles of economics.
And if you don't understand how much the continued use of fossil fuels has subsidised the development of renewables and provided breathing space for their development then you don't understand the energy sector.
You are like a priest telling an old lady out in the snow that suffering is good for the soul and no matter if they freeze to death at least they have more chance of getting into heaven.
It's a question of degree. At it's most simple, we have two potential sources of energy: one ready available, but finite and damaging, the other requiring development, but clean and sustainable. In any sane world it makes sense to use the former as sparingly as possible (without anyone freezing) while doing our utmost to develop the latter. Instead, we have squandered the former on on luxuries like big cars and cheap aviation while only half-heartedly developing the latter. Now payback time is here, and it's those who have kept us addicted to fossil fuels who will be to blame for those freezing during this and subsequent winters.
That is a completely different argument to the one you just made. I would not disagree with you about big cars and cheap flights. Indeed that is the point I am making. We should be dealing with this by dealing with demand not supply. This is why, if it actually can be sustained, the move to electric cars is god. It is why energy saving in all its forms is good. A lot of us have spent the last 30 or more years arguing that fossil fuels are too important to burn. We need them for too many other things. But you deal with that by reducing demand and providing alternatives, not by simply witching off the tap and expecting everything to be fine and rosy.
It would be bloody marvellous if, in 20 years, we didn't have to burn any fossil fuels. But you won't get there any quicker by causing the sorts of energy crisis that we have now. And it has, in part, been caused by reducing our domestic production of fossil fuels whilst failing to reduce demand or provide enough alternatives.
I don't see us getting down to zero fossil fuel in 20 years - given that that is not *that* much longer than the investment lifecycle for things such as offshore wind. But given historical trends over decades I'd say that net zero is quite likely by 2050, and of course as you say there are things for which we will continue to need fossil fuels.
We'll need the LT Government to pick up a lot of the things than BoJo and David Cameron stopped doing. The 2 main areas needing work really progressing are transport and property, especially commercial and owner occupied housing.
Net zero doesn't mean no fossil fuels used, it means net emissions of zero.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
You do not speak for the peoples of these countries who will eventually become republics
There is an inevitabllty about it
Nothing is inevitable.
Indeed, nothing inevitable other than BigG's republicanism now the Queen has died
I support Charles and the monarchy - the fact countries in the commonwealth will in time become republics will happen
Not inevitable but most of the Commonwealth nations became republics or got their own monarchs in the Queen's reign anyway
Paradoxically, plenty of countries are Republics in name, but in actuality, monarchies.
All these stories of Russian retreat and panicked evacuation will make things far worse for the Russia army. How will it draw a new line of resistance with too few troops and a crazy misshapen area to try and hold. The line was already too long, and now might be longer.
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
I'd add tertiary education, for the moment at least, to the world class list, as well as sport. The arts, science, finance, education and sport are basically all the levers of soft power that you need. If used wisely, they are going to reap huge dividends. Inevitable declinism is so utterly boring. It really doesn't have to be that way.
Pharmaceuticals and media production could likely be added to the list. Other forms of industry and services would also be desirable for a country. Also, education for under-18s is increasingly important to deal with automation.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
IIRC Audi have a program targetting the minor royals with enormous (40 - 50%) discounts, for brand purposes.
The Telegraph reported last week that the next PM car might have to be an Audi, becuase Jaguar have paused XJ production. I imagine that will be avoided though.
As with the King's table, one marvels at the lack of forethought. Did no-one in government, or in JLR, see that government cars were coming up for renewal at the time production would be paused? We even had a petrol-head Prime Minister who had been a motoring correspondent and appeared on Top Gear.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
Well, he launched an unprovoked war, which has killed tens of thousands of innocent people.
Would you prefer he got a medal as a reward for his actions?
The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the shores of Lake Erie:
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
I'd add tertiary education, for the moment at least, to the world class list, as well as sport. The arts, science, finance, education and sport are basically all the levers of soft power that you need. If used wisely, they are going to reap huge dividends. Inevitable declinism is so utterly boring. It really doesn't have to be that way.
Quite.
I think it is somewhat lazy to characterise a post-QEII UK as somehow inevitably dwindling, permanently diminished. For one thing it puts way too much emphasis on just how critical QEII has been to the country’s success.
It is absolutely undoubtable that she has been a reassuring presence and that, particularly in recent decades, she has been an instrument of soft power and influence, particularly in Western Politics, as an icon of the war generation, linking that generation with the modern world. No other western nation has a figure quite like her and she has been co-opted somewhat as a global figurehead as well as a national one.
But this country successes and strengths are much bigger than any one person, as important a figure as the queen has been. Decline is not inevitable.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Plus in Canada both the PM and Leader of the Opposition are monarchists which is not the case in Australia and New Zealand where the Labor PMs are republicans unlike the conservative Leaders of the Opposition who are monarchists.
Australia is a bit more republican than New Zealand so if any of the white British origin majority Commonwealth realms switch to a republic, Australia is the likeliest though even that not certain and Australians voted 55% to keep the monarchy in 1999
Can we not make this about race, please?
The Carribean is being influenced by the gravitational pull of the proximate Wokery of the USA, and China which is trying to prise it away from Britain. In years to come the grubby deals China has been striking with semi-corrupt Barbadian politicians (and others) to ditch the monarchy in exchange for money will all come out.
The monarchy has no issue with non-white people and has plenty of realms and territories around the world where this is the case.
The best thing we can do is make a provision for reaccession in case they change their minds.
Is it really about "wokery"?
Or is it simply time gradually loosening the ties?
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
Sure, sure.
But with what weapons and what troops will this increased vigor come from?
All the sturm and drang in the world doesn't offset the fact that Russia has crippled itself economically, while making clear its military and equipment are substandard.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
Sure, sure.
But with what weapons and what troops will this increased vigor come from?
All the sturm and drang in the world doesn't offset the fact that Russia has crippled itself economically, while making clear its military and equipment are substandard.
Although Ukraine now has a lot of Western weaponry, they're still using a lot of ex-Soviet kit, and certainly were mostly doing so in the early stages.
The Russian equipment is mostly fine, it's everything else - training and logistics in particular - that is crap.
Comments
Would happen more often around the times of high security alerts…
Was Churchill popular in 1953/4? I wasn't there.
P.s. fiji is a republic
People in their jobs a handful of days over egged the pudding - sack the lot! General Election now!
I think I'll have a long wait.
Though military failure is a big spur to revolution, revolutions rarely result in governments amenable to the national adversary.
G-Wagen.
For fuck's sake.
My midlife crisis car is going to be either an E63 or a 911.
@JohnSimpsonNews
·
1h
Unless Russia can improve its strategy, tactics & morale very quickly, it’s going to lose this unnecessary & brutal war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian assault in the area round Kharkiv has been fast & clever, & Russia has suffered a major sucker punch. The next week will be critical.
A G-wagen would be the cherry on the parfait.
She told us that the Civil Service was anti-semantic. Unable to communicate logic or meaning.
And if the last few hours are anything to go by, she has a point.
NY Times blog
https://twitter.com/Red__Tim/status/1568894254117691392
Seems to me if there’s a coup or Putin just dies, the immediate policy shift is more likely than not to be one of reconciliation with the West at least for a period of years. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue modernising and expanding its defensive capabilities and Europe will largely pivot away from Russian gas. So the new imperialist Titan is not going to have much luck looking West for territorial gain. He might choose to look south instead to the Stans. But China would likely have something to say about that.
Russia will be just a European Pakistan. Lower standard of living than it should have, high corruption, biggish population, some nuclear weapons capability and ongoing border disputes. What a sorry inheritance Putin is leaving.
To lose the war would need something like the Ukrainians reaching Mariupol - cutting off the Russian forces from Russia, except via Crimea. That would be the end.
A number of speeding tickets later….
So they would face making that investment without Western cash, and with great difficulty in getting the equipment needed.
Personally I am indifferent to Charles.
In the last two days the lights of the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State Building have been dimmed, all EU delegation buildings and American embassies have had their flags at half mast, Macron has delivered both an effusive televised speech and written statement standing in front a Union Jack, Tricolore and EU flag, the Brandenburg Gate has had a vast Union Jack projected onto it, and even the EU Commission has lowered its flags to half mast.
This illustrates two things - Britain's real established place and location in the global geopolitical architecture, and simultaneously simply a reciprocation of the generosity and graciousness herself the Queen showed to our allies. At an extension, it's also simply the Queen's own character that contrasts so sharply with the ungraciousness and abrasiveness of the last few years. As the Beatles sang and culminated the 1960's with, "in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make".
The closure of a reign of unprecedented duration sees Britain once again uncertain of its place in the world and menaced by gathering storms.
Great waves of social, cultural and technological change have rolled in over the past seven decades. Deference to ancient hierarchies has collapsed. Respect for most of Britain’s institutions has decayed where it has not altogether disintegrated. It was an extraordinary feat to preserve her dynasty through so much tumult. Some of this can be put down to repulsion with politicians. President Thatcher anyone? President Blair? President Johnson? The most important factor in the survival of the crown is how well the Queen fulfilled her role.
She satisfied Britons’ love of tradition and pageantry while moving with the times just enough not to look archaic. Incremental adaptions to popular culture swelled the affection for her. [But] I wonder whether she was a bit too good at providing camouflage for the challenges facing Britain by being such a source of comfort and object of pride for a country in relative decline?
In the arts, science and finance, Britain can boast that it is a world-class country. Anything else is over-claiming.
Now is a time of mourning for a remarkable monarch who earned the world’s respect. Soon, the country will need to confront the challenging questions that outlive her. It will have to do so without her steadying presence to console Britons with the idea that all will be well in the end.
That feedback is then played into G7 and other discussions… the UK shamelessly uses the role of spokesman for the commonwealth when it is helpful to do so
https://twitter.com/LizTruss_MP/status/1568729539123056643?s=20&t=Izo1kWYnU90eNe9z_kYO2Q
One of BoJO's more serious mistakes in my view was that he did not have a competent backroom / majordomo setup.
Do we have any indications for Liz Truss yet? Who is in the backup team?
On the -ve side, there has been this. Yet the handling of the Energy Debate looked competent politically, with obvious long-term work having been done, and Mr Starmer left flapping in the wind with nothing to say.
From earlier reading, I understand the whole area North of Crimea, between Kherson, Enerhodar and Melitopol, is a mix of fenland and duneland and provides little cover (Google maps shows it dotted with very small grid pattern agricultural villages. When Russia were broadly successful in getting quickly to first big towns in the South in February it was a matter of necessity.
Ukraine, if an when they take Kherson, will have the same leap to make, and obviously their bridge destruction will become a hindrance at that point.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568936007570972673
NEW THREAD
Would you prefer he got a medal as a reward for his actions?
I think it is somewhat lazy to characterise a post-QEII UK as somehow inevitably dwindling, permanently diminished. For one thing it puts way too much emphasis on just how critical QEII has been to the country’s success.
It is absolutely undoubtable that she has been a reassuring presence and that, particularly in recent decades, she has been an instrument of soft power and influence, particularly in Western Politics, as an icon of the war generation, linking that generation with the modern world. No other western nation has a figure quite like her and she has been co-opted somewhat as a global figurehead as well as a national one.
But this country successes and strengths are much bigger than any one person, as important a figure as the queen has been. Decline is not inevitable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL-m5Nocb-g
Or is it simply time gradually loosening the ties?
But with what weapons and what troops will this increased vigor come from?
All the sturm and drang in the world doesn't offset the fact that Russia has crippled itself economically, while making clear its military and equipment are substandard.
The Russian equipment is mostly fine, it's everything else - training and logistics in particular - that is crap.