Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
It is obviously up to the countries involved and the UK should not interfere with the decision and accept whatever it is. Personally if I were a national of any country with a non political head of state I would value it a lot more than having a elected President who then has to get involved in the grubby business of politics and winning and rewarding friends . The pagentry and heritage is a bonus as well . You can only make this decision once as well so they should be very sure
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
However, unless we can be 100% sure that we would have handled the situation better (and I don't think any of us can), kindness would suggest keeping quiet, wouldn't it?
Though that would cut off the business model of a certain sort of celebrity journalism.
Agree. It was the hypocrisy of @hyufd's post I was really commenting upon, hence my subsequent comments re benefit of the doubt, etc, etc.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Even 2032 might be optimistic re Australia. Albanese has ruled out a first term referendum so even if he wins again, referendum will be late 20s. Id expect the logical outcome of a yes to republic vote if KC3 is still about for the crown not to pass to KW5 in Australia, so to become a republic when KC3 dies. If its KW5 already there may be more scope for a 'retain' vote.
Princess Anne looks absolutely heartbroken. I know that those lining the streets want to pay their respects and that it is right that Anne accompanies her mother but, still, it is a reminder of how hard it is to be in the public eye at such a time.
Is Princess Anne in the cortège? There was some debate on the BBC over who was in the Royal Limo behind the hearse.
Yes. With her husband. Don't know if any others in the family are in the other cars.
A 6 hour journey. That's tough.
Anyway I don't know enough about windfall taxes to comment on that. But holding back on green energy projects, if that is what the Truss government is doing, is remarkably stupid indeed.
I hope the Brechin stop isn’t at Stracathro services. The greasiest of spoons.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Even 2032 might be optimistic re Australia. Albanese has ruled out a first term referendum so even if he wins again, referendum will be late 20s. Id expect the logical outcome of a yes to republic vote if KC3 is still about for the crown not to pass to KW5 in Australia, so to become a republic when KC3 dies. If its KW5 already there may be more scope for a 'retain' vote.
Albanese has now said he wants a referendum in his first term and that would mean becoming a republic in KC3's reign.
Though polling evenly divided, Coalition voters for the monarchy, Labor and Green voters a republic
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
Proper planning and preparation etc He should have inspected beforehand
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
The 'problem', to the extent that there was one, was C3 carrying on like he's le Roi Soleil.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
I said it to my wife at the time and there was an error in leaving them there
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
Yes, she is completely wrong- particularly in the next couple of years.
There's no strong movement for a Republic in Canada, the monarchy is seen as having played a role in smoother relations with some of the first nations next to its neighbour, and as a common unifying source for Canadians of all backgrounds ,and they certainly don't want to be like the Americans.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
I agree and its one of those situations where a perfect storm arises (we have all been there just not necessarily caught on camera but usually in public) where you are tired, grieving , nervous (he must surely have been) , wanting to make a good impression at an important point yet there was some incompetence that clashed with it and he slightly got irritated -
Which one of us has never done that (maybe got a little terse when a waiter brings out the wrong order at an important dinner where you are treating somebody ? or a ref in a sport you are playing in getting it wrong?)when on reflection and out of the heat of the moment we woudl just relax and smile or make a little joke?
Extraordinary. I would have thought the optics of a foreign car would be worse.
The only British option (apart from RR/Bentley) would be Jaguar XF which is an aging piece of crap, only comes with joke IL4 engines and presumably would be difficuly to up armour.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
I can and will criticise Charles and comments like that will only be grist to the republican cause
You made clear you wanted a republic when the Queen died long ago as a non Tory former Labour voter.
Charles made an excellent broadcast last week, long live the King!
I have equally made it clear I am content with Charles and the monarchy continuing but he is not divinity that should not be criticised
Your continued reference to my voting for Blair, notwithstanding throughout my life I have voted conservative and actively campaigned for them over 5 decades, is as absurd as you voting for Plaid as you did
I have never voted Labour at a general election and I voted for every Tory candidate on that town council ballot paper
The Scottish version, used in Local Government STV elections is “vote till you boak”. The principle being, after you have voted for your preferred candidates, your lower preferences are based on the impossibility of only your party’s candidates being elected. If as in @HYUFD’s case he preferred a Plaid opposition to a Labour one, then his vote was sensible. Equally, at the last council election, I voted for all the other candidates before choosing the Tories last. It makes more sense than only voting for your party, especially if they are unlikely to win an overall majority.
If I were a CEO considering investing in any UK energy scheme, I'd want a very clear definition of "excess profits" so I could be prepared for any future windfall taxes on them
Perhaps best not to be a CEO then, as if you are investing on projects with returns spread out over decades in a volatile industry dealing with such uncertainty is part of the job.
One of the things that businesses like is stability. It’s not so much the tax levels (though they have an effect) as a set of rules they can rely on.
Norway is better than the U.K. on such stability in the tax rules for the North Sea - and I think they take more in tax, ultimately. They are better because they have a rule book which they stick to and which makes more sense.
Yep this has been my argument for years. All the more so when the tax rates are not that much different between the two countries but the UK side tinkers with them continuously. As I think I pointed out the other day, in 2014 Osborne changed the North Sea tax regime 3 times in one year. They do the same with regulation. In the last decade regulation of the North Sea has been the responsibility of 3 different Government bodies - DECC, OGA and now NSTA. And even though these are to a large extent the same organisations just rebranded, they always seem to feel the need for a 'clean broom' and start changing all the regulatory systems to justify their existence.
I remember Vasella, the CEO of Novartis, telling me that predictable tax levels and regulation were key for deciding investment, to a far greater degree than their actual level. Obviously high tax rates and strict regulation were a drawback for a multinational, but if you knew they were broadly constant, you could make rational, evidence-based planning decisions. By contrast, a country with fluctuating rates and erratic regulation was too uncertain to bother with, even if they were temporarily helpful.
The other key criterion for him, which I'd not expected, was an education system generating an ample supply of highly-educated local staff. He felt that was a big plus point for Britain (this was 30 years ago --not sure it's still true).
and what rational decision would companies make about investment if they knew with certainty the tax rates were high ? errrm not invest ? Nice try Nick but if all you believe is that businesses just want certainty of a tax rate whatever it is , it is on a par with believing that unions just want certainty of a pay deal in the next five years even if is is zero
Sorry but you are not correct. A lot of companies in my sector make investment decisions based on stability rather than just a few extra % of tax here and there. They do so because they need to plan for many years in the future when they are making multi billion pound investment decisions. Even if the tax is a little higher then you just factor that in. Far more difficult to factor in wild swings in tax regime which is what we have had in the UK for the last few decades.
This is why Norway is far more successful than the UK attracting oil and gas investment. In spite of both taxes and operating costs being higher they can make long term decisions based on stability and certainty.
well sorry but you are not correct - high taxes mean less projects get invested in as the risk of investment is not worth the rewards -
With equal degrees of certainty, low taxes are obviously better than high taxes.
But predictable taxes are a significant positive in evaluating your decision of where to invest. Changing things every year, or several times a year as each new politician arrives, is a total pain in the arse for decision-making with decades-long timescales.
Princess Anne looks absolutely heartbroken. I know that those lining the streets want to pay their respects and that it is right that Anne accompanies her mother but, still, it is a reminder of how hard it is to be in the public eye at such a time.
Is Princess Anne in the cortège? There was some debate on the BBC over who was in the Royal Limo behind the hearse.
Yes. With her husband. Don't know if any others in the family are in the other cars.
A 6 hour journey. That's tough.
Anyway I don't know enough about windfall taxes to comment on that. But holding back on green energy projects, if that is what the Truss government is doing, is remarkably stupid indeed.
I hope the Brechin stop isn’t at Stracathro services. The greasiest of spoons.
Brechin Castle.
The first time I saw the late Queen was when she passed through Forfar on her way down from Balmoral - brief stop at The Cross. She’ll now swoop past it on the bypass.
For the war, it means that we are seeing the disintegration of Russian forces in Ukraine. They may be able to stabilise their lines temporarily, but we have crossed a point of no return. Russia's forces were previously poorly equipped, supplied and of low morale. To that list you can now add terrified of encirclement…
The Russians are not going to be able to pull this together - we are witnessing an army in rapid decline, it is just a question of the speed at which it declines…
But what does this mean for Russia?
Well, first and foremost it means that Putin could be finished. This has been his war. And it has not only failed, but achieved the opposite of what he said it would: Russia is now ostracised, sanctioned, has unified its enemies, and is about to have its army defeated in the field. This may seem like a good thing but there is only one thing worse than a strong Russia, and that is a weak one.
A weak Russia, with its leader defenestrated, leaves many unknown questions. Could there be a coup? Who takes over after Putin? Does Russia stay whole? What happens to the nuclear weapons — and Russia has over 5,000 of them while all of this is happening?
So while everyone’s eyes are focused on what is happening in Ukraine, I hope someone is thinking about what may be shortly to happen to Russia.
It’s far too early to write off Russia in this war. They could stabilise the front - as much from “exhaustion”* of Ukrainian forces as anything else.
*cumulative losses of men and equipment in the attacking force plus running down stocks of ammunition and fuel.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
Always the way when you have to cobble something together A factory I worked in had a forklift truck with a different number plate on the front and back. They probably had the same sort of issues.
From where was it "borrowed"? That's what something like that usually means!
They literally had cobbled together 1 fork lift truck from 2. I was involved in a company takeover. We were trying to sort out a register of fixed assets for valuation purposes. It was a scream. A complete shambles. Whole lorries missing (explained by recording number plates incorrectly), overhead conveyer belts missing (still in records but clearly scrapped years before) and this particular fork lift truck that I approached from the wrong direction so got the number plate for the scrapped fork lift and could not find the working one I was trying to find (which was one and the same fork lift and would have been obvious if I had approached it from a different direction).
Also had fun valuing valuable metal. It was short. They found more. Still short so they found more, etc, etc. When they had found enough to match the records they couldn't get the point I was making when I asked them to find some more.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I watched that ceremony on telly live as did many people I know. No one noticed it, no one mentioned it. I then watched the video again after everyone here kept banging on about it. And I still didn’t see what the fuss was about. And I am someone who would broadly describe myself as agnostic on the issue of monarchy as an institution and broadly antagonistic towards many of the individuals.
This story is one of republicans howling at the moon. They thought the only thing keeping the UK a constitutional monarchy was the remarkable lady Elizabeth Windsor. And they’ve realised this week that they were probably wrong.
The person I was with noticed it at the time, but didnt really think anything of it. Its weird how much people are making of it.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
The problem was that the pens and holders were placed on the wrong side i.e. nearest Charles and in his way. They were placed for the benefit of the other signers who signed from the other side of the table. Someone boobed.
I agree and its one of those situations where a perfect storm arises (we have all been there just not necessarily caught on camera but usually in public) where you are tired, grieving , nervous (he must surely have been) , wanting to make a good impression at an important point yet there was some incompetence that clashed with it and he slightly got irritated -
Which one of us has never done that (maybe got a little terse when a waiter brings out the wrong order at an important dinner where you are treating somebody ? or a ref in a sport you are playing in getting it wrong?)when on reflection and out of the heat of the moment we woudl just relax and smile or make a little joke?
Its no big deal
That's the problem when every move someone makes is scrutinised. I'm a republican but on this occasion I'm inclined to give the monarch the benefit of the doubt.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Even 2032 might be optimistic re Australia. Albanese has ruled out a first term referendum so even if he wins again, referendum will be late 20s. Id expect the logical outcome of a yes to republic vote if KC3 is still about for the crown not to pass to KW5 in Australia, so to become a republic when KC3 dies. If its KW5 already there may be more scope for a 'retain' vote.
Albanese has now said he wants a referendum in his first term and that would mean becoming a republic in KC3's reign.
Though polling evenly divided, Coalition voters for the monarchy, Labor and Green voters a republic
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
As some of us might have said on Thursday, there’s nine days of this, and no matter how many people complain that’s not going to change. It’s all been planned in some detail for many decades.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Even 2032 might be optimistic re Australia. Albanese has ruled out a first term referendum so even if he wins again, referendum will be late 20s. Id expect the logical outcome of a yes to republic vote if KC3 is still about for the crown not to pass to KW5 in Australia, so to become a republic when KC3 dies. If its KW5 already there may be more scope for a 'retain' vote.
Albanese has now said he wants a referendum in his first term and that would mean becoming a republic in KC3's reign.
Though polling evenly divided, Coalition voters for the monarchy, Labor and Green voters a republic
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
As some of us might have said on Thursday, there’s nine days of this, and no matter how many people complain that’s not going to change. It’s all been planned in some detail for many decades.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
Always the way when you have to cobble something together A factory I worked in had a forklift truck with a different number plate on the front and back. They probably had the same sort of issues.
From where was it "borrowed"? That's what something like that usually means!
They literally had cobbled together 1 fork lift truck from 2. I was involved in a company takeover. We were trying to sort out a register of fixed assets for valuation purposes. It was a scream. A complete shambles. Whole lorries missing (explained by recording number plates incorrectly), overhead conveyer belts missing (still in records but clearly scrapped years before) and this particular fork lift truck that I approached from the wrong direction so got the number plate for the scrapped fork lift and could not find the working one I was trying to find (which was one and the same fork lift and would have been obvious if I had approached it from a different direction).
Also had fun valuing valuable metal. It was short. They found more. Still short so they found more, etc, etc. When they had found enough to match the records they couldn't get the point I was making when I asked them to find some more.
At one time in my life I used to do pre-export inspections, on behalf of the recipient. On one occasion I picked up a box that was supposed to contain glass bottles and heard a rattling sound typical of broken glass. I opened the box and found many of the bottles, which were designed for perfume and similar products, broken. I pointed this out to the vendors representative who said that they sent everything out at buyers risk, and then asked me to sign the shipping orders as being satisfactory! He was very cross when I refused to do so, "as the van taking the order to the airport was waiting to leave! "
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture · 5h 15/ The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble. Because of this, we should watch for some unexpected reaction from Putin. He (unlike some of his senior military officers) has shown no signs of believing the invasion is in trouble.
Jeez, not this one again. Terrible poling question, based on political talking points with no context.
The companies making money are Saudi Aramco and Qatargas - how does the UK government tax them?
Taxes on UK domestic extraction are currently 69%, by how much should these rise?
A question to which Starmer had no answer and just blustered in Parliament.
Good morning
Starmer was caught out by Mark Harper in the HOC and his reaction showed he did not understand the difference between global profits (170 billion) and UK profits of 40 billion currently taxed at 65%
I expect the COE in his emergency budget will call out Starmer and others on this misconception
There is a serious, really serious political problem for the Tories. Why you don't get this is puzzling. It may well be the case that the domestic energy companies aren't going to make intergalactic profits. Just vast ones. The public will not understand the nuanced differences, but they WILL understand the sneering arrogance of this government defending the profits of these companies over the taxpayer.
Why can't you see this? Truss is wrong here on a galactic scale, and having backed the oil companies over individuals the political tax will be crippling.
For me I am fully aware a windfall tax won't raise a significant proportion of the energy handouts the government is giving. The principle of everyone, including businesses, doing their bit in a crisis is an important one however, so even if it raises another £5bn out of £200bn I think it very much worthwhile.
So without necessarily disagreeing with you, how much above 65% do you think the tax rate should be on energy companies?
I don't work for HMRC so would leave it up to them to come up with some suggestions that could raise more. Off feel I would start by reducing the 91% investment rebate or perhaps change it to only apply to green investment with a much lower rate for fossil fuel investment.
A number of companies (including the one I am currently drilling wells for) have already decided to abandon a whole series of UK development campaigns on the back of the Windfall tax in spite of the investment rebate. If you want to drive the rest out then all you do is accelerate the end of the North Sea and make yourself more reliant on imported O&G. Not exactly the best way to deal with an energy crisis.
Excellent news. Anything that helps to keep it in the ground gets my vote. The underlying cause of the energy crisis has been insufficient urgency in the development of renewables, and anything that helps push progress on that front is a good thing. Hydrocarbons should be exploited only when necessary, not squandered as they have been on providing unsustainably cheap energy thus hindering the development of clean alternatives.
Again., stupidly short sighted. Part of the reason for the current energy crisis is that we decided to cut back on oil and gas production long before we could ever have sufficient renewables to fill the gap and so have to rely on imports.
Stanislaw Lem, the great Polish Sci-F writer once wrote a story about a king who wanted all his subjects to become amphibians and so, to make them develop gills he started to raise the water level in his country by an inch a year. He couldn't understand it when all his subjects drowned.
Your policy is much the same. Wishing it would be any other way doesn't change reality.
If you don't understand why renewables would have been developed more quickly if the price of fossil fuels had reflected their finite nature and the environmental damage they cause, then you don't know the first principles of economics.
And if you don't understand how much the continued use of fossil fuels has subsidised the development of renewables and provided breathing space for their development then you don't understand the energy sector.
You are like a priest telling an old lady out in the snow that suffering is good for the soul and no matter if they freeze to death at least they have more chance of getting into heaven.
It's a question of degree. At it's most simple, we have two potential sources of energy: one ready available, but finite and damaging, the other requiring development, but clean and sustainable. In any sane world it makes sense to use the former as sparingly as possible (without anyone freezing) while doing our utmost to develop the latter. Instead, we have squandered the former on on luxuries like big cars and cheap aviation while only half-heartedly developing the latter. Now payback time is here, and it's those who have kept us addicted to fossil fuels who will be to blame for those freezing during this and subsequent winters.
That is a completely different argument to the one you just made. I would not disagree with you about big cars and cheap flights. Indeed that is the point I am making. We should be dealing with this by dealing with demand not supply. This is why, if it actually can be sustained, the move to electric cars is god. It is why energy saving in all its forms is good. A lot of us have spent the last 30 or more years arguing that fossil fuels are too important to burn. We need them for too many other things. But you deal with that by reducing demand and providing alternatives, not by simply witching off the tap and expecting everything to be fine and rosy.
It would be bloody marvellous if, in 20 years, we didn't have to burn any fossil fuels. But you won't get there any quicker by causing the sorts of energy crisis that we have now. And it has, in part, been caused by reducing our domestic production of fossil fuels whilst failing to reduce demand or provide enough alternatives.
I don't see us getting down to zero fossil fuel in 20 years - given that that is not *that* much longer than the investment lifecycle for things such as offshore wind. But given historical trends over decades I'd say that net zero is quite likely by 2050, and of course as you say there are things for which we will continue to need fossil fuels.
We'll need the LT Government to pick up a lot of the things than BoJo and David Cameron stopped doing. The 2 main areas needing work really progressing are transport and property, especially commercial and owner occupied housing.
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture · 5h 15/ The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble. Because of this, we should watch for some unexpected reaction from Putin. He (unlike some of his senior military officers) has shown no signs of believing the invasion is in trouble.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
You're a Tory hater. If she wasn't on the tour, you'd call that disgraceful too.
No, I would not. I would say the same about any politician who tried to make use of our popuular Head of State in this way.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
I can and will criticise Charles and comments like that will only be grist to the republican cause
You made clear you wanted a republic when the Queen died long ago as a non Tory former Labour voter.
Charles made an excellent broadcast last week, long live the King!
I have equally made it clear I am content with Charles and the monarchy continuing but he is not divinity that should not be criticised
Your continued reference to my voting for Blair, notwithstanding throughout my life I have voted conservative and actively campaigned for them over 5 decades, is as absurd as you voting for Plaid as you did
I have never voted Labour at a general election and I voted for every Tory candidate on that town council ballot paper
That is actually really sad.
why ? Its sad to me if an individual does not vote how he wants
Sad because the implication - and indeed the statement in the past by HYUFD - is that he would vote Tory no matter what their failings.
Princess Anne looks absolutely heartbroken. I know that those lining the streets want to pay their respects and that it is right that Anne accompanies her mother but, still, it is a reminder of how hard it is to be in the public eye at such a time.
Is Princess Anne in the cortège? There was some debate on the BBC over who was in the Royal Limo behind the hearse.
Yes. With her husband. Don't know if any others in the family are in the other cars.
A 6 hour journey. That's tough.
Anyway I don't know enough about windfall taxes to comment on that. But holding back on green energy projects, if that is what the Truss government is doing, is remarkably stupid indeed.
I hope the Brechin stop isn’t at Stracathro services. The greasiest of spoons.
Brechin Castle.
The first time I saw the late Queen was when she passed through Forfar on her way down from Balmoral - brief stop at The Cross. She’ll now swoop past it on the bypass.
I love that greasy spoon at the Stracathro Services.
Brechin is a very stately market town (or cathedral city), but a bit deprived and down at heel now. There was a big American airbase that closed, which did not improve things. In its bones, it is very similar to Petworth, the Castle (which is more a large house with some turrets) sits right in the attractive town centre. Just squint and swap antique shops for charity shops, and they could be twins.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I watched that ceremony on telly live as did many people I know. No one noticed it, no one mentioned it. I then watched the video again after everyone here kept banging on about it. And I still didn’t see what the fuss was about. And I am someone who would broadly describe myself as agnostic on the issue of monarchy as an institution and broadly antagonistic towards many of the individuals.
This story is one of republicans howling at the moon. They thought the only thing keeping the UK a constitutional monarchy was the remarkable lady Elizabeth Windsor. And they’ve realised this week that they were probably wrong.
The person I was with noticed it at the time, but didnt really think anything of it. Its weird how much people are making of it.
As with the new PM, there’s a group of people dedicated to making mountains out of molehills when it comes to the new King. They’re the usual suspects, that loud 1% from social media.
Just seen my old mate Joe Morrow who is the Lord Lyon making the declaration in Edinburgh (he's about to do it again in the castle). Seems really odd to see someone you know well to have such a role.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
RR is getting a bit expensive (especially when considering how crap they are). The LWB V8 is 180 grand off the showroom floor before options.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
As some of us might have said on Thursday, there’s nine days of this, and no matter how many people complain that’s not going to change. It’s all been planned in some detail for many decades.
There’s always Netflix.
You've got test cricket, the St Leger meeting, the Inkpot Scandal and Ukraine to entertain you. think back to a Sunday in lockdown and how you'd have killed for any one of those.
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Even 2032 might be optimistic re Australia. Albanese has ruled out a first term referendum so even if he wins again, referendum will be late 20s. Id expect the logical outcome of a yes to republic vote if KC3 is still about for the crown not to pass to KW5 in Australia, so to become a republic when KC3 dies. If its KW5 already there may be more scope for a 'retain' vote.
Albanese has now said he wants a referendum in his first term and that would mean becoming a republic in KC3's reign.
Though polling evenly divided, Coalition voters for the monarchy, Labor and Green voters a republic
Given trends for aussie PMs hes getting ahead of himself to think he'll even get a second term.
Indeed. Which may well put republicanism on walkabout I think the caribbean countries will become republics soon, along with the Solomons, Belize may be closer, they are having a constitutional review starting imminently but its a fully open one, no vested approach and there is some latent gratitude to the UK for keeping Guatamala at bay in the early years of independence. PNG won't for now and most of the remaining Overseas territories will remain British due to military usefulness or being too small to exist independantly. Bermuda might pursue independence and perhaps the larger carribeans. In the main the rump extended UK will likely remain as is though for some time
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
You need to take your blinkers off
Go away you and stop being so disrespectful, Charles IIIrd is your King, tough
So it is alright for a person to be disrespectful to another, but it is disrespectful for another to point out the first is being disrespectful. How do you square that piece of logic? Or is it that certain people can treat others as they like and the rest of us should know our place.
Personally I would like to give Charles the benefit of the doubt, but it certainly did not look good. Most people would have simply asked someone to please remove the items and then thank them for doing so.
Anyway the rest of the proceedings went well. I liked Charles', and later the sons', walk about. Hopefully that was more in character.
I don't know why someone didn't organise to have a bigger desk. That was the problem. It simply was not big enough.
Tsk. That is the sort of suggestion you get if you let a woman get involved. There are clearly far more complicated solutions available.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
I don't think many of the Ukr rape and murder victims had started a war.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
I’m sure your imagination is as vivid as get go, but for most people something that happened trumps(!) something that hasn’t happened easily.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
You do not speak for the peoples of these countries who will eventually become republics
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
Schadenfreude is a thing. It's technically hypocritical, but let's be real here, was anyone that upset at Hitler shooting himself even if they are opposed to suicide? Putin is not Hitler, but he's on the spectrum in that direction, someone who launches invasions killing tens of thousands because he's an insecure little man.
Murderous dictators tend to invite others to react that way. Its not the same as supporting mass murder as a general tactic.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
You do not speak for the peoples of these countries who will eventually become republics
There is an inevitabllty about it
Nothing is inevitable.
Indeed, nothing inevitable other than BigG's republicanism now the Queen has died
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
She has read my post on the subject and reconsidered.
No, it is not a reverse ferret. Is in the planning for PM to attend the religious services and events taking place in Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff. As will the First Ministers. Introduction of the words royal tour seems to have got some of the usual suspects going.
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
How do you know Charles didn't invite her?
I don't see how else it's happening - it's hardly the kind of thing she could gatecrash.
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
You're a Tory hater. If she wasn't on the tour, you'd call that disgraceful too.
No, I would not. I would say the same about any politician who tried to make use of our popuular Head of State in this way.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Was there a tour like this in 1952? Even if there was, Elizabeth + Churchill is a rather different dynamic to Charles + Truss.
I just don't see how the PM comes out of this without a diminished reputation.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
As some of us might have said on Thursday, there’s nine days of this, and no matter how many people complain that’s not going to change. It’s all been planned in some detail for many decades.
There’s always Netflix.
You've got test cricket, the St Leger meeting, the Inkpot Scandal and Ukraine to entertain you. think back to a Sunday in lockdown and how you'd have killed for any one of those.
Or, if you're my age, think back to a Sunday in the 50s!
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
RR is getting a bit expensive (especially when considering how crap they are). The LWB V8 is 180 grand off the showroom floor before options.
They are all going to be half a million, by the time they come out of the coachworks weighing six tonnes. Might as well stick with something made in the UK.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
My assumption is that very few places will have the shared monarchy by 2032. But given the constitutional complexities in Canada, and the slightly less anti-monarchy sentiment in NZ, perhaps they will hang around for a while longer.
Plus in Canada both the PM and Leader of the Opposition are monarchists which is not the case in Australia and New Zealand where the Labor PMs are republicans unlike the conservative Leaders of the Opposition who are monarchists.
Australia is a bit more republican than New Zealand so if any of the white British origin majority Commonwealth realms switch to a republic, Australia is the likeliest though even that not certain and Australians voted 55% to keep the monarchy in 1999
Can we not make this about race, please?
The Carribean is being influenced by the gravitational pull of the proximate Wokery of the USA, and China which is trying to prise it away from Britain. In years to come the grubby deals China has been striking with semi-corrupt Barbadian politicians (and others) to ditch the monarchy in exchange for money will all come out.
The monarchy has no issue with non-white people and has plenty of realms and territories around the world where this is the case.
The best thing we can do is make a provision for reaccession in case they change their minds.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
As some of us might have said on Thursday, there’s nine days of this, and no matter how many people complain that’s not going to change. It’s all been planned in some detail for many decades.
There’s always Netflix.
You've got test cricket, the St Leger meeting, the Inkpot Scandal and Ukraine to entertain you. think back to a Sunday in lockdown and how you'd have killed for any one of those.
Or, if you're my age, think back to a Sunday in the 50s!
Trudging slowly over wet sand Back to the bench where your clothes were stolen This is the coastal town That they forgot to close down Armageddon, come Armageddon Come, Armageddon, come
Everyday is like Sunday Everyday is silent and grey
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible as the Labor PM is a republican and wants another referendum on it but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
If I were running the republican campaign anywhere I would just show the inkpot footage on a loop.
I would just show President Johnson or President Blair on a loop.
There was nothing wrong with Charles asking for his desk to be cleared as it needed documents on
There was everything wrong with his demeanour and utter disrespect to another human being
It showed his true nature which has long since been known and which Camilla struggles to contain
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
You do not speak for the peoples of these countries who will eventually become republics
There is an inevitabllty about it
Nothing is inevitable.
Indeed, nothing inevitable other than BigG's republicanism now the Queen has died
I support Charles and the monarchy - the fact countries in the commonwealth will in time become republics will happen
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
You're a Tory hater. If she wasn't on the tour, you'd call that disgraceful too.
No, I would not. I would say the same about any politician who tried to make use of our popuular Head of State in this way.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Was there a tour like this in 1952? Even if there was, Elizabeth + Churchill is a rather different dynamic to Charles + Truss.
I just don't see how the PM comes out of this without a diminished reputation.
I don't recall one; but then of course we didn't have devolved administrations, except Northern Ireland.
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
When I lived in Tower Hill, every now and then a convoy of black Range Rovers would roar across the bridge, usually late at night. Alway four blokes in each vehicle, funky aerials on most of them. Local rumour was that it was the Hereford Boat Club, from a base in South London somewhere.
Was about as subtle and secret as a brick through the window…
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Yet another Liz Truss position that has had to be "clarified".
Doesn't seem so. In the leadership contest she said things, or her spokesman did, and then threw a strop when people took those words at their plain, literal meaning.
This seems a genuine case that people misunderstood what was always the plan.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
The new UK govt. cars are going to be Audi A8s because Jaguar have just given up and RR/Bentley would be adverse optics.
The new PM seems to have gone with the Range Rovers for her first few engagements. Let’s hope they stay (and that they have a spare one or two, for “serviceability” reasons!).
When I lived in Tower Hill, every now and then a convoy of black Range Rovers would roar across the bridge, usually late at night. Alway four blokes in each vehicle, funky aerials on most of them. Local rumour was that it was the Hereford Boat Club, from a base in South London somewhere.
Was about as subtle and secret as a brick through the window…
Might be all sorts of other things, of course, coming from South London!
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
For the war, it means that we are seeing the disintegration of Russian forces in Ukraine. They may be able to stabilise their lines temporarily, but we have crossed a point of no return. Russia's forces were previously poorly equipped, supplied and of low morale. To that list you can now add terrified of encirclement…
The Russians are not going to be able to pull this together - we are witnessing an army in rapid decline, it is just a question of the speed at which it declines…
But what does this mean for Russia?
Well, first and foremost it means that Putin could be finished. This has been his war. And it has not only failed, but achieved the opposite of what he said it would: Russia is now ostracised, sanctioned, has unified its enemies, and is about to have its army defeated in the field. This may seem like a good thing but there is only one thing worse than a strong Russia, and that is a weak one.
A weak Russia, with its leader defenestrated, leaves many unknown questions. Could there be a coup? Who takes over after Putin? Does Russia stay whole? What happens to the nuclear weapons — and Russia has over 5,000 of them while all of this is happening?
So while everyone’s eyes are focused on what is happening in Ukraine, I hope someone is thinking about what may be shortly to happen to Russia.
It’s far too early to write off Russia in this war. They could stabilise the front - as much from “exhaustion”* of Ukrainian forces as anything else.
*cumulative losses of men and equipment in the attacking force plus running down stocks of ammunition and fuel.
There’s always a “could”, nothing is certain. But the long term dynamics of this conflict have seemed pretty clear for a while now. For Russia to achieve a long lasting occupation / annexation of new territory, they would need either or possibly both of the US to stop sending arms, and a successful general mobilisation in Russia.
What the last week has shown is that Ukraine’s focus on attriting Russian troops and disrupting / extending the Russian logistics chain, has left their fighting capability fairly well exhausted. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol by Easter.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
Australia I think is evenly balanced. I don't think it's certain.
Canada won't.
New Zealand won't either, too much history with Waitangi and not much appetite for it either.
Edit: as I said last night I think the most likely is Jamaica.
My son's Canadian girlfriend is staying with us at the moment. Her view, and it is a sample of one, is that Canada is very likely to become a Republic in the next couple of years. There is a huge aftermath of irritation with the conduct of Julie Payette as Governor General, asking why do we need to put up with this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/canadas-governor-general-resigns-report-harassment
Well she is completely wrong, both PM Trudeau and new leader of the Conservative opposition Poilievre are monarchists. Only the NDP and Maxime Bernier's party in Canada back a republic.
Indeed there is a new governor general who replaced the one you linked to and proclaimed King Charles IIIrd as Canada's new King yesterday
I would suggest a Canadian is more reliable than yourself and while it may not be imminent it is quite possible all of Aus, NZ and Canada will become republics and others will and quicker
No they aren't, you could be on Mars and still note that both the main party leaders in Canada are monarchists, so there is zero chance of any change there.
I said Australia might be possible but even there polling is evenly divided.
God save King Charles IIIrd!!!!
You do not speak for the peoples of these countries who will eventually become republics
There is an inevitabllty about it
Nothing is inevitable.
Indeed, nothing inevitable other than BigG's republicanism now the Queen has died
I support Charles and the monarchy - the fact countries in the commonwealth will in time become republics will happen
Not inevitable but most of the Commonwealth nations became republics or got their own monarchs in the Queen's reign anyway
If I were a Tory, I would be beginning to have serious doubts about Truss's political instincts. It's not only the windfall tax and tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses, but also the decision to accompany Charles and Camilla on their pre-funeral tour around the UK. At best, she's going to be seen as a bit part player - but, more likely, she'll be seen as inserting herself into something that has nothing to do with her, solely for perceived political gain.
Disgraceful move on Truss's part. This is a bonding exercise between the new Head of State and the People. We do not need to have it turned into a party political stunt. If they all came anywhere near me, I think I would boo.
How do you know Charles didn't invite her?
He would not be that stupid......
And the record has now been put straight. It seems that the No 10. press team were putting a slant on things - just as they did in the days of Johnson. I still think Truss is a vast improvement.
Princess Anne looks absolutely heartbroken. I know that those lining the streets want to pay their respects and that it is right that Anne accompanies her mother but, still, it is a reminder of how hard it is to be in the public eye at such a time.
Is Princess Anne in the cortège? There was some debate on the BBC over who was in the Royal Limo behind the hearse.
Yes. With her husband. Don't know if any others in the family are in the other cars.
A 6 hour journey. That's tough.
Anyway I don't know enough about windfall taxes to comment on that. But holding back on green energy projects, if that is what the Truss government is doing, is remarkably stupid indeed.
I hope the Brechin stop isn’t at Stracathro services. The greasiest of spoons.
Brechin Castle.
The first time I saw the late Queen was when she passed through Forfar on her way down from Balmoral - brief stop at The Cross. She’ll now swoop past it on the bypass.
I love that greasy spoon at the Stracathro Services.
Brechin is a very stately market town (or cathedral city), but a bit deprived and down at heel now. There was a big American airbase that closed, which did not improve things. In its bones, it is very similar to Petworth, the Castle (which is more a large house with some turrets) sits right in the attractive town centre. Just squint and swap antique shops for charity shops, and they could be twins.
Ye may gang far, and fair waur!
I spent a lot of time in Brechin as a kid due to maternal grandparents and must admit that I didn’t see much evidence of the USAAF presence but perhaps money did flow in hidden ways. Not to set Leon et al off but I read that Edzell was the base for 17th Space Surveillance Squadron..
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
Do I get a sense the speed of Ukrainian advance has slowed down a tad overnight?
Still plenty of positive content on Twitter but it’s all about yesterday’s victories.
Even the American army, with their logistics system didn’t advance continuously in Iraq.
Edit: pauses for consolidation, refuelling and rearming. What kind of pause this is, if it is a pause and not a news blackout, we will see shortly.
I was worrying yesterday that they would over-extend and get zapped. If there’s some consolidation it probably helps their cause in the medium term.
Having said that I logged in this morning quietly hoping to see an ongoing rout and Putin in trouble.
Following a war in real time is fascinating but a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
A rout might sound like fun but could have some serious negative consequences.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
I don't know why everyone who pretends to be appalled at the Russian way of doing things is so desperate to see Putin 'strung up' or facing some other horrible end that is not retiring in ignominy after democratic rejection. It's pretty hypocritical to say the least.
There also seems to be this assumption that whatever follows Putin will be more amenable to Western interests which could easily not be the case. There is a significant strand of Russian political thought that believes he has conducted the SMO with insufficient vigour and aggression. Girkin, etc.
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Who is Pearl?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
Isn't she still going to be there at the various services? So she will be accompanying him on some aspects.
In the 'significant moments of national mourning'
Yeah, but that isn't consistent with "not accompanying".
Interesting. I had always seen it being a bit like a house of cards - once Australia in particular goes, the others will follow. In any event the debate has often been muted in recent years because it has long been accepted in NZ/AU/CA that this wasn’t a debate worth having until EIIR was gone.
The Solomon Islands must be in the seat next to the exit. They are wavering between failed state and Chinese satrapy. They don't even let the Royal Navy dock these days.
I think what we need here is for it not to be a big issue, which in reality is already true because 36 from 54 of commonwealth countries are already republics.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
Indeed, it is something that I find hard to care about. Is Kenya or India less of a Commonwealth country than PNG or Fiji because they are republics?
The BBC and I daresay others are going to show footage of those cars for the next six hours. JFC.
Hearse seems to have a Mercedes star on the front and a Bentley B on the back.
The footage yesterday of the Waleses and H&M had them coming out of an Audi ffs.
IIRC Audi have a program targetting the minor royals with enormous (40 - 50%) discounts, for brand purposes.
The Telegraph reported last week that the next PM car might have to be an Audi, becuase Jaguar have paused XJ production. I imagine that will be avoided though.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
She has read my post on the subject and reconsidered.
No, it is not a reverse ferret. Is in the planning for PM to attend the religious services and events taking place in Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff. As will the First Ministers. Introduction of the words royal tour seems to have got some of the usual suspects going.
Ah, someone says "it isn't a reverse ferret" so it can't be a reverse ferret. I would really, really like to enter into a series of bridge sale and purchase transactions with you.
Again Here's the Indy quoting the official DS spokesman. Either the DS spokesman said this stuff, which is unambiguous, or the Indy journalist would have been sacked by now
Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The Conservative prime minister and the King will head to Scotland on Monday morning, followed by visits to Northern Ireland on Tuesday and Wales on Friday.
Ms Truss will support Charles by joining him at “services of reflection” around the country during the 10-day mourning period, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said.
Comments
Though polling evenly divided, Coalition voters for the monarchy, Labor and Green voters a republic
https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-sense-of-momentum-poll-finds-drop-in-support-for-australia-becoming-a-republic-20210125-p56wpe.html
Doesn't everyone expect the royals to have fancy cars? Is it one of those the Prime Minister should travel by easyJet kind of things?
There's no strong movement for a Republic in Canada, the monarchy is seen as having played a role in smoother relations with some of the first nations next to its neighbour, and as a common unifying source for Canadians of all backgrounds ,and they certainly don't want to be like the Americans.
Which one of us has never done that (maybe got a little terse when a waiter brings out the wrong order at an important dinner where you are treating somebody ? or a ref in a sport you are playing in getting it wrong?)when on reflection and out of the heat of the moment we woudl just relax and smile or make a little joke?
Its no big deal
But predictable taxes are a significant positive in evaluating your decision of where to invest. Changing things every year, or several times a year as each new politician arrives, is a total pain in the arse for decision-making with decades-long timescales.
The first time I saw the late Queen was when she passed through Forfar on her way down from Balmoral - brief stop at The Cross. She’ll now swoop past it on the bypass.
*cumulative losses of men and equipment in the attacking force plus running down stocks of ammunition and fuel.
Also had fun valuing valuable metal. It was short. They found more. Still short so they found more, etc, etc. When they had found enough to match the records they couldn't get the point I was making when I asked them to find some more.
I get a horrible feeling that these two openers are going to run up at least a hundred between them. Scores level.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/royal/19772089/australia-keeps-king-charles-head-of-state-debate/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11201089/Anthony-Albanese-rules-republic-referendum-saying-soon-discuss-Queens-death.html
No referendum in first term.
There’s always Netflix.
Nae thrice, and twenty thrice for Gyles Brandreth.
I'd be happy to see the Russian Army freezing its bollocks off for six months, followed by Putin being strung up by his.
He was very cross when I refused to do so, "as the van taking the order to the airport was waiting to leave! "
@WarintheFuture
·
5h
15/ The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble. Because of this, we should watch for some unexpected reaction from Putin. He (unlike some of his senior military officers) has shown no signs of believing the invasion is in trouble.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1568838599705243648
We'll need the LT Government to pick up a lot of the things than BoJo and David Cameron stopped doing. The 2 main areas needing work really progressing are transport and property, especially commercial and owner occupied housing.
And wrong on the first point too. Some of my best friends are Conservatives - even had some in the family.
Brechin is a very stately market town (or cathedral city), but a bit deprived and down at heel now. There was a big American airbase that closed, which did not improve things. In its bones, it is very similar to Petworth, the Castle (which is more a large house with some turrets) sits right in the attractive town centre. Just squint and swap antique shops for charity shops, and they could be twins.
There needs to be a modicum of reimagining, which may well fit with KCIII's habits as something of a divergent thinker.
I think the caribbean countries will become republics soon, along with the Solomons, Belize may be closer, they are having a constitutional review starting imminently but its a fully open one, no vested approach and there is some latent gratitude to the UK for keeping Guatamala at bay in the early years of independence. PNG won't for now and most of the remaining Overseas territories will remain British due to military usefulness or being too small to exist independantly. Bermuda might pursue independence and perhaps the larger carribeans. In the main the rump extended UK will likely remain as is though for some time
Retiring is problematic for Putins.
No.10 now clarifying that Liz Truss not accompanying King Charles III on tour in coming days. Attending memorial services. Statement issued yesterday sounded rather more than that
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1568924153100500997
Although my first car was Swedish.
Contrary to reports, I’m told Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. She will simply be in attendance at the memorial services. Which is clearly appropriate.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1568917180757975040
As so often, those anxious to take offence have jumped the gun…
Murderous dictators tend to invite others to react that way. Its not the same as supporting mass murder as a general tactic.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1568922765939429377?
I just don't see how the PM comes out of this without a diminished reputation.
The Carribean is being influenced by the gravitational pull of the proximate Wokery of the USA, and China which is trying to prise it away from Britain. In years to come the grubby deals China has been striking with semi-corrupt Barbadian politicians (and others) to ditch the monarchy in exchange for money will all come out.
The monarchy has no issue with non-white people and has plenty of realms and territories around the world where this is the case.
The best thing we can do is make a provision for reaccession in case they change their minds.
Back to the bench where your clothes were stolen
This is the coastal town
That they forgot to close down
Armageddon, come Armageddon
Come, Armageddon, come
Everyday is like Sunday
Everyday is silent and grey
Someone is going to have a meeting without biscuits.
Was about as subtle and secret as a brick through the window…
This seems a genuine case that people misunderstood what was always the plan.
I’ll stick with the German car for myself, but for government ministers and the royal family of course a British car is important.
The only reason the French still make big cars, is to sell them to their own government. Can you imagine Macron in a Mercedes?
"Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said." Indie yesterday
Liz Truss is not accompanying the King on his tour of the nations. hodges today
This was always a mistake. this was pointed out by Truss's more independent minded well wishers. She U turned. But for you, yesterday she was always going to be touring Eastasia. Today that was never the plan.
What the last week has shown is that Ukraine’s focus on attriting Russian troops and disrupting / extending the Russian logistics chain, has left their fighting capability fairly well exhausted. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol by Easter.
And the record has now been put straight. It seems that the No 10. press team were putting a slant on things - just as they did in the days of Johnson. I still think Truss is a vast improvement.
I spent a lot of time in Brechin as a kid due to maternal grandparents and must admit that I didn’t see much evidence of the USAAF presence but perhaps money did flow in hidden ways. Not to set Leon et al off but I read that Edzell was the base for 17th Space Surveillance Squadron..
Just like the English there no Russian national identity beyond their past Imperial glories and the Post Putin Russia, assuming it exists in any recognisable form, is going to have to be just as, if not more, vatnik adjacent as VVP is.
58 - 1
And it also looks like something of a pattern.
The Telegraph reported last week that the next PM car might have to be an Audi, becuase Jaguar have paused XJ production. I imagine that will be avoided though.
Again Here's the Indy quoting the official DS spokesman. Either the DS spokesman said this stuff, which is unambiguous, or the Indy journalist would have been sacked by now
Liz Truss will accompany King Charles III on his tour of the UK next week as he leads the nation in the “significant moment” of mourning for the late Queen.
The Conservative prime minister and the King will head to Scotland on Monday morning, followed by visits to Northern Ireland on Tuesday and Wales on Friday.
Ms Truss will support Charles by joining him at “services of reflection” around the country during the 10-day mourning period, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was not a formal or constitutional role, but was agreed by No 10 and Buckingham Palace.
“It’s not a requirement, but the prime minister believes it’s important to be present for what is a significant moment of national mourning around the United Kingdom,“ the No 10 spokesman said.