Starmer is in tune with the public – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is in tune with the public – politicalbetting.com
68% of Britons (including 64% of Tory voters) say that the government should introduce an increased windfall tax on oil and gas companies to help pay for Liz Truss's £2,500 cap on energy priceshttps://t.co/MZANQyroUx pic.twitter.com/dN4WeOgElP
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And what everyone realises is that someone has to pay for the capping. If it's not the companies themselves, then who?
It’s not Tory ideology they are following - Lady Thatcher was quick to take windfall tax from companies raking it in during recession and crisis, when everyone else was suffering. Truss is going the opposite way from how Lady Thatcher showed her the right way to go. Like I said, this government is confused and bizarre.
The Energy companies could make more than £150B from this crisis, and up to one fifth cannot be taken without it being unfair or investment getting hammered? the Thatcher government would have taken at least a fifth from energy companies profits here to partly fund the crisis plan - basing my opinion confidently on fact this exactly what Thatcher government did do to banks and energy companies in the recession hit early eighties, because here was particular industry not suffering enough as the working families and businesses, which government chose to side with via redistribution of the windfall profit - such clever politics was the foundation of Lady Thatcher’s subsequent landslide wins. Remember it was Starmer’s very first PMQ question to the new PM - do you rule out any more windfall tax, I am convinced Truss got off to an awful start giving a straight answer to that.
If the £170B ballpark figure for windfall profit is anywhere near accurate, taking one fifth, still leaving behind four fifths of massive windfall profit) the one fifth can be more than £30B. It clearly doesn’t pay all of a £150B or £220B package - everyone will be paying majority the debt off in both tax and higher bills for decades to come.
Those are the fiscal truths. The political truth is not only it is now easier for opposition to paint Truss as in pocket of fat cats, but she chose this road. Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave at a Tory leader choosing this route.
Truss has instantly proved she ain’t no Maggie Thatcher - she’s not in that league of politician.
The companies making money are Saudi Aramco and Qatargas - how does the UK government tax them?
Taxes on UK domestic extraction are currently 69%, by how much should these rise?
Starmer was caught out by Mark Harper in the HOC and his reaction showed he did not understand the difference between global profits (170 billion) and UK profits of 40 billion currently taxed at 65%
I expect the COE in his emergency budget will call out Starmer and others on this misconception
https://twitter.com/i/status/1529788086976233474
Since Liz Truss has ruled out a windfall tax (as did Rishi but a rose by any other name is a temporary targeted energy profits levy) it might be possible to break this price link.
As well as reducing the cost to the government of subsidising a lower price cap, this might also give political benefit to the government by attacking, or ending, windfall profits.
The same is true on other corporate taxes.
Shocked to learn voters want others to pay more tax to help them out.
What is that about lying in politics?
If you are relying on detailed dissections of Labour policy instead of government policy, I think you are going to be disappointed.
Jwhole there's nothing wrong with a windfall tax, it's not a magic button; indeed it can only be a relatively small part of the solution.
Both sides are being somewhat dishonest
here. Tories saying it's not necessary and Labour implying it's more than it is.
Transcript below -
https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1568782102782709760
The fear of Russian soldiers that they will be castrated if they surrender to Ukrainians underscores the difference between the two sides.
According to the BBC, "BP and Shell both received more money back from the UK government than they paid every year from 2015 to 2020 (except 2017, when Shell paid more than it received). Shell also paid a negative amount of tax in 2021 - BP has yet to publish its figures for last year."
The existing windfall levy allows tax savings of 91p for every £1 invested in fossil fuel extraction, so that could be reduced or changed to only apply to cleaner investment.
It is pretty clear that BP and Shell have not been contributing a fair amount of tax to the UK over a sustained period even before their windfall gains. Sure they contribute correctly according to law, but it is not beyond the wit of HMRC to find ways to tax them more.
Organisations such as the media and polling companies need to be calling out bulls… like this, but instead they pretend it’s simply a political argument rather than an impossible untruth.
Betting PostF1: backed Ricciardo to top his group (versus Gasly, Ocon, and Vettel) at 3.1.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/09/italy-pre-race-2022.html
https://twitter.com/bbclysedoucet/status/1568739382072582144
https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1568613008661958657
https://twitter.com/AodhBC/status/1568253423027363841
It shouldn't be beyond the wit of HMRC, but I wouldn't actually bet money on it.
For those who don’t want to watch the news channels, the F3 race is about to start, to be followed by F2 and Porsche Supercup before the F1.
I'm still a bit irked by how fate conspired to turn what should've been a major winner into a lesser one into a loss last time out.
Keir Starmer is a pleasant individual and there’s common ground between us. But he’s been totally led astray here by his researchers and does not appear to know how to dig himself out of this hole other than to keep repeating mistruths.”
Boom. Mike wins his bet.
2. Does Truss really want to set the truth line that high?
3. In a truth-details fight, Starmer is always going to beat Truss, because he's had more practice.
4. No really. Does Truss (who stood by Boris through fib and fibber) want to set the truth bar that high?
Perhaps Labour should put a windfall tax slogan on the side of a bus, so that Tories can talk about why it is wrong-headed some more.
No-one said politics was fair.
"From 1st October, a new ‘Energy Price Guarantee’ will mean a typical UK household will now pay up to an average £2,500 a year on their energy bill for the next two years. This is automatic and applies to all households.
This will save the average household at least £1,000 a year based on current energy prices from October and is in addition to the £400 energy bills discount for all households."
Telling people they will save at least £1,000 a year is very, very, misleading. Am sure The Advertising Standards Authority would rule it out of order. More importantly is likely to seriously piss people off when they get their bills this winter.
Were I Starmer, I would focus on Truss's much bigger lie. Namely, that we can improve public services, cut the NHS backlog and ambulance waiting times, increase defence spending, and solve the crisis in social care. And at the same time, cut taxes for everybody.
Now, that's a whopper.
The former business secretary decided to keep his health issues secret for more than a year and to soldier on as leader, until he stepped down in July 2019.
Now 79, he says in the memoir that he wrestled with whether to go public at the time, but came to the conclusion that people would have written him off as a “goner” had he done so.
On one occasion in early summer 2018 he was addressing MPs in a Brexit debate in the House of Commons. “I totally lost my bearings and for what seemed an eternity I was paralysed,” he writes.
“There weren’t many MPs in the chamber and those present were either half-asleep or working on their phones so I was able to get back into my stride without too much attention being paid. But my confidence was seriously shaken.”
The revelation about the stroke, which happened when flying to Italy in May 2018, comes towards the end of Partnership & Politics In a Divided Decade. The book weaves together Cable’s account of the 10 years starting with the formation of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition in 2010, with the memories of his wife, Rachel Smith, who kept a diary of those times.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/11/vince-cable-reveals-he-suffered-stroke-when-liberal-democrat-leader?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
It gets mentioned so regularly in focus groups.
If Labour want to ensure they win a majority at the next election they just have to list all the Tory grift in this parliament.
"based on current energy prices from October " - What does that mean??
That would have been nonsense too. I hope the editorials on this site don't try and push a party line over the next 2+ years.
We're better than that.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/11/ukraines-counteroffensive-near-kharkiv-what-made-the-blitzkrieg-possible/
Most new leader bounces dissipate after a few months, because changing the face at the top and the mood music doesn't affect how Mr and Mrs Voter experience their daily life.
Most of the decisions that are going to decide the 2024 election have already happened and are making their way through the digestive tract of the British state.
There is, to use that word again, hysteresis in the system. If things get worse and then get better again by returning to the starting point, the Government are still going to get blamed.
Dare I suggest that polling companies all take a week or two off, because pretty much everything they’re polling now is likely to be rubbish.
It was desperately sad, and, I think, a big mistake.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60506565
Why can't you see this? Truss is wrong here on a galactic scale, and having backed the oil companies over individuals the political tax will be crippling.
Despite the time I spend here, I’m not a bettor. But if I were, I would say Tory majority is underpriced right now. We’re almost at the nadir and by spring 2024 we could be seeing fast catch-up growth and an election under newly beneficial boundaries for the govt.
Pollsters definitely should continue to track what people think so we can see how events are shaping the mood. They're mirrors, not predictions.
Glad to see Starmer recognised. The Tories have been playing catch up since day one. Their argument that you can’t tax all of it so don’t tax any of it is daft. They are still behind the curve.
For some whose personal economy is closely linked to the state, public sector workers, pensioners, unemployed there is a slightly bigger connection and more chance of being a winner or loser depending on the colour of rosette.
The big positive influence governments could have, but rarely do, is investing for the future. Such a government would make a real difference, but it is hard for one to be elected because people prefer to eat the cake and keep the cake, but never to bake the bloody thing.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/it-s-official-sarah-palin-cost-the-gop-a-house-seat/ar-AA11EJmA?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c0c6897f73c346b2bf5e7919b7c1a14e
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1568681541668143109?t=_UsSS4pVL1WgfaHCN3R9TA&s=19
I cannot see sanctions being dropped until a new Russian government agrees all of that. It won't all be over by Christmas.
It's reminiscent to me of my other half. She buys an item of clothing for £50 in a sale, full price was £150, and she is completely convinced that we are £100 better off than would otherwise have been the case.
Edit: bear in mind that the oil sanctions have had almost no impact on world supply or price levels. And gas prices have been high as everyone in Europe has assumed Russian gas will be unavailable to it. As soon as a new leader is installed and the army leaves post 2014 occupied territory, I reckon the taps will open again. Doesn’t change medium term need to pivot to other supplies but no longer such an urgency.
Worse will be the government's tone. They have appointed JRM as energy minister. Who is against all of the ling term solutions and wants gas companies to drill in your back garden and under your park. Whilst sneering at any struggles you may be having to pay the doubled bills.
I'm not at all interested in Labour, Conservative, SNP or Liberal Democrats right now. That can wait.
This is about the whole country, focusing on understanding and processing what's just happened, what that means for us going forwards, and who we are, and stabilising our sense of ourselves, before we turn to debating who has the best policy solutions.