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Putting the interest in interest rates – politicalbetting.com
Putting the interest in interest rates – politicalbetting.com
With inflation running rampant and Andrew Bailey, a man so inept he pays full price for a DFS sofa, I suspect following his 0.5% increase last month Bailey will be under further pressure to combat the prediction of inflation peaking at 13.3% next year.
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- Former BOE policy maker says the BOE is ‘behind the curve’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/uk-interest-rates-may-need-to-rise-to-4-andrew-sentance-says
Nicola Sturgeon +9
Anas Sarwar -4
Keir Starmer -14
Douglas Ross -37
Rishi Sunak -40
Liz Truss -45
The Oaf -60
(Ipsos Scotland; 12-15 August; sample size: 1,000)
* currently it is not consumer spending nor wage rises that are driving inflation, so interest rates will not affect it IMO. All they do is pile misery on those struggling, and push us into recession.
Serious Q - I don't know.
The mortgage point is largely moot; at present some huge percentage of mortgages are fixed rate - 75% of all of them, 90%+ of new ones in the last 3 years, so impact on mortgages will be very limited.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730
Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?
When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.
Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.
Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
Next Conservative leader
1.08 Liz Truss 93%
12.5 Rishi Sunak 8%
It could have been meant for Dugin and gone wrong but anyway, fuck her, she was fash and I'm glad she's dead.
Mr. L, while still long odds, I'm surprised to see that Sunak's fallen from around 16 to 12.
Multiple admissions for attempted suicide overnight, again.
"Jumped because can't afford to eat".
Again.
https://twitter.com/karimbrohi/status/1560929483456118787
https://twitter.com/SimonMagus/status/1560959113483411458
h/t @david_herdson
I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
The triggers for the change came on Friday night so you'd be looking at Saturday's Times, with Michael Gove in particular, backed up by Matthew Parris, laying into Liz Truss, and then perhaps also the Manchester hustings.
My ideological point is that I never want micro-management by politicians, which istm is usually a long-term problem.
(On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
This does illustrate yet another failure of the 1922 Committee, which urged members to vote early and not wait for its hustings programme to be complete. Obviously flawed advice that also should have been revisited once it was decided members would not be allowed to change their votes.
If you vote early and regret it, well, you should have waited until you had more info.
It's a disgusting and pointless exercise. If they've done the decent thing in collecting their dog's poo why not put it in a bin?
Mrs T thought privatisation was the answer. I was never sure it would work. It stands in comparion to the Pharmaceutical industry. People are prepared to pay for world class drugs, so it's a natural for entrepreneurs. No one wants increased taxes to pay what drops from the sky, and as for shit, we'd rather not go there.
So it remained the poor relation. It has to be in public hands for that reason.
To extremists, it's a badge of honour. To the left, nationalsiation is always right. To the right, privatisation is the goal. Horses for courses never enters into it. Childishness at its worst.
I don’t know if it’s true, but someone on TV said we haven’t built a new reservoir since 1976 (as though it’s a bad thing). If that’s the case, then that sounds like a good news story given the population increase in that time.
Now, I’m not saying this is a case for the current set up, but I do think we sometimes fall into the trap of thinking everything is terrible and getting worse.
On another note: we're currently in Manchester for a short break to celebrate our 13th anniversary tomorrow. Any recommendations from PBers for things to see and do? I've been here as a kid a few times decades ago, and have walked through it, and Mrs J has never been here.
Here’s David Cameron in 2014:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-says-it-would-be-lovely-if-interest-rates-could-remain-at-the-current-low-level-9829844.html?amp
David Cameron has said he wants interest rates to remain at a historic low, because it would make life easier for homeowners.
The Prime Minister said it would be “lovely” if they could “forever” stay at the emergency low they have been at since 2009.
Leaving rates near 0 during the 2010s was utterly criminal, as was help to buy.
Congratulations.
On the old Irish note, I've found Manchester's attractions too spread out. Liverpool's are easier to recommend because they're localised in the centre. But your tastes may be more cultural, so I'll leave it to a Mancunian to give you advice.
Bailey has been a very weak governor and that is probably already becoming priced in as part of the interest rate premium that the BoE has to offer versus the ECB. It is now a long time since the UK had a AAA rating (It is currently AA, for context Estonia is AA-, Germany AAA) and the prospect of UK finances being strong enough to see any kind of ratings upgrade seems very distant.
While the UK government will put pressure on the BoE to maintain a looser monetary policy in the short run, in the end this has to be paid for, so either we continue to tighten at a steady speed and build in some room to manoeuvre, or the next time we hit any kind of rough patch we need an emergency tightening and crush all hope of economic recovery.
Truss is caught in a bind, the recession is already here, but the room for easier monetary conditions is not, and if she pushes the Bank too hard, it will lead to worse monetary conditions, not better. If Truss does undermine the independence of the central bank she must expect the market to insist on a premium rate to pay for the increased risk of political interference.
Truss is not scared enough of the Bond Market.
I've also seen dog poo bags lined up on the sea wall at Teignmouth/Dawlish (the bit between the walkway and the railway), at convenient height for kids to touch. And yes, as you say, hanging off trees.
Incidentally, I've occasionally also come across bras or panties hanging off trees in wooded areas. Always makes me wonder quite what the story was of how they got there. And also a large doll's head impaled on a spike in woodland, gazing out at passers by...
The Panelbase survey of 1,133 adults in Scotland showed 49 per cent support for independence and 51 per cent for the union among those likely to vote who have made up their minds.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/independence-more-likely-if-truss-in-no-10-pz68r0k6b
Scotland is more likely to become independent if Liz Truss becomes prime minister, according to a survey of opinion across the Union. The research also suggests that Northern Ireland is on course to leave the UK within 20 years.....
...in Scotland, support for staying in the UK falls slightly to 48 per cent if Truss becomes prime minister, and to 49 per cent if Rishi Sunak takes over at No 10.
Nicola Sturgeon is wrong to suggest that she could hold a second independence referendum without UK government consent, according to a former colleague who helped to negotiate the Edinburgh Agreement that led to the 2014 vote.
Alex Bell, the former special adviser who led Alex Salmond’s Scottish government policy team, said the administration received legal advice that such an approach would be unlawful....
...In his new Sunday Times column, Bell argues that the first minister’s decision to refer the issue to the Supreme Court is “a waste of time and money” that will see the era of Salmond, Sturgeon and John Swinney “end in ignominy”....
He writes: “Since 2007 Nicola Sturgeon has known the law. It is Westminster’s call. Pursuing the matter after 15 years in office is a piece of theatre designed to disguise how the SNP has failed nationalists.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-referendum-plan-illegal-says-ex-aide-dktq3npp5
Undeniably many dog owners are antisocial though, not keeping their pooches under control around other people, nor cleaning up after them. There is an unfortunate class element to it too, with middle class owners much more likely to pick up, even when they don't think people are watching.
On one hand: urban explorers can be sh*ts: there seems to be somewhat of a feeling of entitlement to break into places they really should not go - and to encourage others to do so. I wouldn't put being stupid enough to break into a military base beyond some of them.
On the other hand: 'urban exploration' would be a great excuse for all sorts of nefarious activities in places you shouldn't be. And if it was a 'neuroparalysing spray', and not common-or-garden pepper spray, then yes, they're spies.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/two-russians-and-one-ukrainian-arrested-after-suspected-spying-raid-on-albanian-arms-factory
Meanwhile, definitely cutting back on conveniences and nice to haves here to help pay the bills, which is recession like behaviour.
https://www.arc-trust.org/facts-and-advice-on-adder-bites#:~:text=How many people die from,the last being in 1975.
Though a friend of mine at medical school did get admitted to hospital once after a particular bit of stupidity. He saw an adder on the South Downs while having a picnic and picked it up to scare the girls with! Not surprisingly it bit him, and his arm started to tingle and swell. He was OK to drive though, and went to hospital and was monitored for cardiac dysrhthmias, then discharged the next day.
On poo bags, I have seen them in trees occasionally, more in London than around here, and it mystifies me. Even if there are no bins around, you take it home and dispose there. It's actually illegal not to pick up and dispose safely. There are dog wardens who certainly apply the law locally. You will even be fined if you do not carry the means to dispose of such waste. Compliance rates are good, though there are one or two individuals who notoriously cannot be bothered. People know who they are, but they are incorrigible. They tend to be old, poor, and stupid.
Tory MP votes to let private water company flush her poo directly into the sea. Then writes to complain that the water company is flushing her poo into the sea.
The 2019 intake of Tory MPs are the dumbest ever.
They make quite a distinctive noise when disturbed - once you know it, you hear it all the time. One had a good look at me while I was napping by the Dee up in the Cairngorms, came right over my boot.
As a boy a friend and I used to catch adders in what is now Hadleigh Country Park. There was a chap not far away who would pay 10/- for them.
Would possibly be better for Putin if it was Ukrainians behind it because if not then it could be the beginning of his end.
*Not sure about today.
**UKG included LDs at the time, of course.
Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
I am not impressed by Bailey and the others on the MPC. They have failed at their job and frankly I think that they should pay the penalty. Resignation by the Governor would be an acknowledgement of the Bank's failings.
When they actually failed though is more difficult. The lag in interest rates is probably 18-2 years now given the preponderance of fixed rate borrowing. It would have been difficult to raise rates 2 years ago when Covid was at its peak and the economy was in recession. The mistakes really came earlier when the emergency rate from the GFC was allowed to persist. At the time it seemed growth was weak but fiscal policy in terms of the deficit was generous and the Bank failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as one politician once said. If they had gently built base rates up to 4% or so we would be in a much better place now.
Katy Taylor works for Southern Water not Scottish Water. Southern Water are the ones who released the statement about 95% rainwater
https://www.gigl.org.uk/atlas/amphibians-reptiles-atlas/
Edit: assuming it's not an escapee, especially in this warmer weather. But obviously not an anaconda (which loves water), unless it is a very juvenile one.
I am not claiming any knowledge of the detail.
But 2 minutes googling on this shows that
She did not vote to 'allow private water companies to flush poo in to the sea'.
She voted for the environment bill.
This included new legislation on how storm water overflows are regulated.
The position espoused in government press releases at the time is that this will reduce the amount of water being discharged in to the sea.
There is independent commentary at the time that supports this position. IE:
https://www.weightmans.com/insights/environment-act-2021-storm-overflows/
"Not only the public but also undertakers may be pleased that these duties have been enacted. They will help to reduce the long-standing situation of storm overflow discharges to the aquatic environment, a situation which the undertakers themselves have long regarded as unacceptable but did not have the necessary statutory and regulatory framework to enable the implementation of significant remedial steps. The measures within the Act set out that framework, albeit subject yet to further detail in regulations. However, a substantial unknown remains in respect of “progressive reduction in the adverse impacts of discharges from … storm overflows”, both in terms of the precise meaning of this duty, how it is to be achieved and the time period for doing so. To that extent, the Act is merely the starting point."
UK students must pay closer to £24,000 a year or lose their places to foreigners, argue bosses
No doubt this will be Liz’s next move. God help us, fuck the young am I right?
I honestly don't think the economy can ever be fixed as long as policy automatically defaults to whatever keeps house prices high.
Scottish Nationalism is not inherently Anglophobic. Stuart Dickson absolutely is.
On a connected note: 'While 44% oppose a referendum in the next five years, 48% are in favour.' I guess this will mean a rapid Yoon reversion to 'no one gives a feck what Scots think, you're not getting one'.
It doesn't destroy the housing market - as there will always be forced sellers and willing buyers, what it does is return prices to sane levels...