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Putting the interest in interest rates – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are the economics of moving tuition fees to 24k going to work.

    Ask the Americans. It would be a pretty normal rate for an Ivy League University.
    The ivy league has scholarships
    In America, middle class kids have college funds, as any watcher of their sitcoms will know.

    One advantage (and quite possibly the only one) of high tuition fees is they pay for all that high quality research that keeps us high in academic league tables but never quite translates to economic or industrial supremacy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022
    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719
    Using monetary policy to control inflation is literally the #1 item on the BoE's mandate at the moment, so I'm not clear on how Truss thinks she could possibly make that focus tougher.

    Bailey needs to be fired. Yesterday.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DougSeal said:

    Completely and utterly OT but does anyone know why the Wagner Group is so-called? Is it in honour of the somewhat problematic German composer?

    It was Dmitry Utkin's radio handle when he was in GRU SF.
    From Wikipedia:

    The Wagner Group itself was first active in 2014,[2] along with Utkin, in the Luhansk region of Ukraine.[64] In 2021, the Foreign Policy report noted the origin of the name "Wagner" to be unknown.[47] Others say the group's name comes from Utkin's own call sign "Wagner", reportedly after the German composer Richard Wagner, which he is said to have chosen due to his passion for the Third Reich
    Does Wikipedia mention Hart to Hart?
    Or The guy who appeared on X Factor ?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,675
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    To me it is almost certain that the next rise will be another 0.5% but the odds reflect that and are not particularly tempting. More would reek of panic and admissions of past failures to act. Less would be rightly condemned in light of inflation being so out of control.

    I am not impressed by Bailey and the others on the MPC. They have failed at their job and frankly I think that they should pay the penalty. Resignation by the Governor would be an acknowledgement of the Bank's failings.

    When they actually failed though is more difficult. The lag in interest rates is probably 18-2 years now given the preponderance of fixed rate borrowing. It would have been difficult to raise rates 2 years ago when Covid was at its peak and the economy was in recession. The mistakes really came earlier when the emergency rate from the GFC was allowed to persist. At the time it seemed growth was weak but fiscal policy in terms of the deficit was generous and the Bank failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as one politician once said. If they had gently built base rates up to 4% or so we would be in a much better place now.

    First, inflation at the moment comes from the supply side, not demand. Second, increasing interest rates as demand falls risks tipping us into recession. It's complicated. Even if we ignore supply and demand, increasing interest rates is itself inflationary, but insofar as it strengthens the pound, can reduce the price of fuel and other imports.
    We also have excess demand as shown by our balance of payments. Increasing interest rates is not generally inflationary. It should reduce the money supply by reducing new borrowing which should also reduce demand. The key factor though is what are real interest rates. Real interest rates are significantly higher than base rates but still substantially lower than inflation. There has never been a better time to borrow as much as you can because you will repay the debt in depreciated pounds. This itself is inflationary but weaning us off this extraordinary state of affairs has been neglected in the decade since the GFC.
    But if I borrow £100 at 4% for 12 months when inflation is at 10%, I have to find £104 at the end of the year to repay the debt. The £104 may now only be worth £93.60 in "old money" but the lender will want £104 off me and not £93.60. So for it to be a good idea to borrow the money I need to be able to invest it in something that will confidently return me a greater than 4% profit. What is that investment?
  • moonshine said:

    Full disclosure: I have a mortgage. That said, can anyone tell me how putting interest rates up helps lower inflation which is driven by the high price of gas?

    ...
    The very best policy right now is to artificially deflate the headline rate of inflation by removing all tax on energy, with the price cap staying fixed.
    ...
    I'm no economist, but wouldn't that simply result in us running out of energy?
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are the economics of moving tuition fees to 24k going to work.

    For most graduates, it will just go on their "for Pete's sake, don't call it a graduate tax" liability until it gets written off in a few decades time.
    The concern is that if that is what happens (and it is indeed what would happen if nothing else changes), then the net benefit to universities (or the Exchequer) would be negligible.

    Which leads to the conclusion that if it is intended to raise more money for either of those, then the setup would have to change somewhat in order to get more money from the graduate over their career. If it is not intended to raise more money, then why bother with it at all?

    Any such change would not be a positive for the students and graduates.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,822
    edited August 2022

    kjh said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I agree. You are very unlikely to see a smooth snake unless you are in Surrey or Dorset Heathland and even then unlikely as they are rare. Our snakes are quite short with the grass snake being by far the longest and the only one that can be green. The yellow marking behind the head is the usual give away.

    Of course there is the slow worm (legless lizard) that can be mistaken for a snake, but again it doesn't fit the description.
    I've seen a few grass snakes, admittedly not recently, but I don't recall one that I would describe as green.
    Greenish, perhaps, although never really green.

    A snake swimming is 90%+ likely to be a grass snake. They are almost semi-aquatic and will generally be found where there are ponds, as frogs form a good part of their diet. I've seen them swimming quite a few times.

    Adders generally prefer heathy sites. There are loads on our local moors - you can see up to 50 or more on a warm day in spring - but I've only ever seen grass snakes elsewhere.

    The only time I've seen an adder in the water was one crossing a burn in the Skye Cuillin one very hot day (it does happen sometimes) one June.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    To be fair she is offering hope, not handouts. As well as tax cuts for big business and reducing NI for the well off.

    A sure fire winner.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    I find it reassuring that remaining loyalist PB Tories are taking comfort that opposition proposals are unworkable after they ALL voted for a Boris Johnson fantasy prospectus.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    ...
    rcs1000 said:

    Full disclosure: I have a mortgage. That said, can anyone tell me how putting interest rates up helps lower inflation which is driven by the high price of gas?

    By putting interest rates up, you have less money to spend. This lowers aggregate demand, and therefore demand meets supply at a lower price level.

    Admittedly, at some not insignificant societal cost.
    Well quite. If I must take my medicine I am happy to do it, but it seems ludicrous that the BOE are being criticised for not removing enough of my income fast enough, whilst the same people criticise Liz Truss for not making a clear pledge to boost my income with a handout. An interest rate rise at the present time seems rather beside the point.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,524

    Cicero said:

    Just a gentle reminder that the average BoE base rate since foundation in 1694 is 5%, and between 1950 and 2008 it was more than 8%.

    Bailey has been a very weak governor and that is probably already becoming priced in as part of the interest rate premium that the BoE has to offer versus the ECB. It is now a long time since the UK had a AAA rating (It is currently AA, for context Estonia is AA-, Germany AAA) and the prospect of UK finances being strong enough to see any kind of ratings upgrade seems very distant.

    While the UK government will put pressure on the BoE to maintain a looser monetary policy in the short run, in the end this has to be paid for, so either we continue to tighten at a steady speed and build in some room to manoeuvre, or the next time we hit any kind of rough patch we need an emergency tightening and crush all hope of economic recovery.

    Truss is caught in a bind, the recession is already here, but the room for easier monetary conditions is not, and if she pushes the Bank too hard, it will lead to worse monetary conditions, not better. If Truss does undermine the independence of the central bank she must expect the market to insist on a premium rate to pay for the increased risk of political interference.

    Truss is not scared enough of the Bond Market.

    Amusing how you cherry pick Germany as representative of the ECB. Of course the problem for the ECB and the EU is they're balancing the conflicting monetary demands of countries like Germany with countries like Italy, Greece etc

    To actually see which countries have a bond premium it's worth looking at the bond markets and setting as a baseline, as it is in most things financial, the USA.

    As it stands the US 10y bond yield is 2.989 so any countries with a yield of three or more have a premium relative to them.

    The UK yield is 2.412 - so a negative premium?

    By contrast the ECB is juggling the demands of the following members, to go with Germany.

    Italy 3.489
    Greece 3.692
    Bulgaria 3.000
    Romania 7.920

    And in the Single Market, but not the Euro, there is also
    Iceland 5.56
    Czech Republic 4.267
    Poland 6.03
    Hungary 8.74
    Well you have chosen a rather scatter gun approach to the data. Only Italy is particularly comparable to the UK economy and obviously of the smaller economies Romania is not yet a member of ERM II & Iceland has no plans to join. So you are not comparing like for like. Italy´s latest deficit is -12.9% of GDP while the UK is -16.5% so any Italian discount may reflect the current political uncertainty. The judgement of the market on the UK is more likely a function of economic fundamentals.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624

    Football: Hmm. Anyone think Arsenal are in with a shot of the title this year?

    Possibly. I've had a punt on them at 16/1. The other big 4 will be distracted by the Champions League, Arsenal won't. And they're looking good - Jesus and Zinchenko are great signings.
    They are aren't they. Both were apparenty 'men of the match' yesterday. City should have charged a premium for selling them as a pair as you would with two complementing Ming vases
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,014
    edited August 2022
    moonshine said:

    Full disclosure: I have a mortgage. That said, can anyone tell me how putting interest rates up helps lower inflation which is driven by the high price of gas?

    [..]

    The very best policy right now is to artificially deflate the headline rate of inflation by removing all tax on energy, with the price cap staying fixed. It’s a sleight of hand to stop runaway inflation expectations. The inflationary impact from this fiscal measure would take perhaps a year to feed through, by which time rate rises in the US, UK and Europe will have mostly curtailed the expansion in the monetary base.

    The balancing trick to this is making sure in the process you don’t explode the deficit, which either then has to be paid for with higher gilt yields, or further QE! The other sleight of hand used in the past is to increase the percentage of “risk free” Sterling assets that banks must hold (i.e. Gilts). Allows a higher deficit with lower yields. But it’s an anti growth measure if you take the piss with it.
    Fine as far as it goes, but removing a 5% VAT rate on energy is massively inadequate for the problem we face. Removing "green" levies won't help much as they either drive buying behaviour - removing them will just make alternatives to fossil fuels more expensive - or they are used to support people struggling to pay their bills, a problem that has got much worse because of the price increases. Although I do think they need looking at.

    Government doesn't really have much choice than to find several tens of billions to protect against the shock. It just hasn't admitted it yet.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    You need to look up the meaning of 'sectarian'. I don't see Stu wearing a footie scarf while chanting "* the Pope". It detracts from your PBToryexpertise on Scottish
    matters.
    Okay then. It’s “Anglophobic August”. Better?

    The Tory Party seem not to think so*. The Tories actually tried claiming that Scottish criticism of Tory* policies was inherently racist and Anglophobic, but they back-tracked within a very few hours. That was in the months before the referendum of 2014, and I remember that very well - evidently a coordinated message out to all their mouthpieces in the news outlets, then an almost instant reverse ferret.

    *Not sure about today.

    **UKG included LDs at the time, of course.
    The criticism was of Dickson personally. He changed the headline of a piece, critical of water quality in “Britain”, to “England”, despite the article itself clearly referring to water companies on both sides of the border. Scottish Water is publicly owned.

    Scottish Nationalism is not inherently Anglophobic. Stuart Dickson absolutely is.

    Anyone with a brain is anglophobic at the moment. England voted Brexit and voted Tory even with the knowledge Johnson would be Prime Minister. The Scots didn't. Can you blame them for sneering and loathing us for
    the choices we foisted on them?
    Actually 40% or so of Scots did. Why are they never mentioned?
    If 100% of Scots had voted to Remain then
    the U.K. would have Remained.
    That would have been an absolutely hilarious result. Can you imagine the frothing on here?
    Indeed. Nations and nationalities are idiotic arbitrary divisions. I’d abolish them all. Municipalities, and loose, fluid, federations thereof, should be the basic governing unit.

    That is a great idea. I feel a lot more attachment to my neighbourhood and city than I do to the country we are located in. Real local devolution plus a world government to manage global issues would be an interesting setup.
    Or... Lots of layers, local as possible, large scale as necessary?

    One of the odd experiences of going to Europe is seeing multiple flags, representing everything from a town to a continent. Equal in size and status. Somehow, the British (by which, let's be honest, I mean the English) don't cope with that well. Why?
    Because the English used to rule half the world and so a lot of English people who might otherwise feel that they had received a raw deal out of life got to feel good about themselves by focusing intensely on the English part of their identity to the detriment of all others. Notice how British identity in Scotland has waxed and waned with the rise and fall of the British Empire. The English would feel a lot happier, and certainly be a hell of a lot better governed, if they embraced regionalism, localism and Europe. But I'm not English so it's not really my business.
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    Ooh, what's that? The Waverley? Shieldhall?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wasps. Not seen that many so far this summer. (Famous last words)

    Quite an alarm recently about a nest in a children's playground near here!
    Oh dear. Two summers ago a local tea rooms, with an idyllic garden, was blighted by a nest. It was quite surreal seeing people struggle through afternoon tea. It was a warzone. I’ve seen about four wasps this year.
    We went to a Center Parcs about a month ago where every outside eating place was 'out of bounds', due to wasps!
    Sounds like I’ve been lucky this year, rather than 🐝 suffering due to the heat. Last time I was stung a wasp got under the tongue of my shoe whilst cycling and stung me repeatedly. Had a nasty reaction. I’m not a friend of the wasp ever since.
    Bit late to reply to this, but you’ve been very lucky. 2022 is the year of the wasp, right across Europe.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/07/heatwave-to-make-uks-plague-of-wasps-worst-for-years-17140545/amp/
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    I find it reassuring that remaining loyalist PB Tories are taking comfort that opposition proposals are unworkable after they ALL voted for a Boris Johnson fantasy prospectus.
    The answer to Starmers proposals are to implement better and longer lasting ones

    Now whether Truss is going to achieve this we will all know sometime in September
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    To be fair she is offering hope, not handouts. As well as tax cuts for big business and reducing NI for the well off.

    A sure fire winner.
    Shes swapping all 7 scrabble tiles in the hope of G R O W I N G
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Carnyx said:

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    Ooh, what's that? The Waverley? Shieldhall?
    Tis the Waverley. Not quite the glories of the Quattrocento but I like it.
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    Since privatisation, the industry invested heavily. In water quality, since those were the targets the regulator set. So tap water got better - massively. Since the regulator prioritised not digging up roads until about ten years ago, dealing with leaks was pushed to back of the queue. Similar with sewage discharges.

    The water companies are semi-connected to politics. The partial connection means that the treasury can’t say no to investment. The regulator explicitly “listens to public concerns”. Spending billions over a decade or 2 to increase capacity* to prevent discharges wasn’t on the table until it has popped up now. Cleaner, cheaper water from the tap was. And that is what we got…

    *Yes, it is increasing population, again.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    HYUFD said:

    Some more info from that Panelbase poll.


    Failing Labour in second place. Only two seats but they don’t need Scotland to Govern
    Better let Angie know.

    "Angela Rayner: Scottish independence 'not very nice' and means 'perpetual' Tory rule"

    https://tinyurl.com/2p9xryra
    Blair won 3 general elections in England alone, however we are all better together
    So fix the union so we still have one. Home Rule for England needs to be on the table.
    I suspect that would be the end of the Union. Most likely Germany in the eurozone on steroids.

    The trouble with 'Home Rule' is people never spell out exactly what it means. It refers to Ireland at a time when there was a British Empire and you had self-governing entities in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. What does it mean now? The autonomous communities of Spain seem a more fruitful comparison.

    Personally the only feasible option I see is a deal where any further powers to Holyrood is combined with a reduction in the number of Scottish MPs. Everyone forgets that was a part of the the original settlement post 1997.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Some more info from that Panelbase poll.


    Failing Labour in second place. Only two seats but they don’t need Scotland to Govern
    Better let Angie know.

    "Angela Rayner: Scottish independence 'not very nice' and means 'perpetual' Tory rule"

    https://tinyurl.com/2p9xryra
    Blair won 3 general elections in England alone, however we are all better together
    So fix the union so we still have one. Home Rule for England needs to be on the table.
    I suspect that would be the end of the Union. Most likely Germany in the eurozone on steroids.

    The trouble with 'Home Rule' is people never spell out exactly what it means. It refers to Ireland at a time when there was a British Empire and you had self-governing entities in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. What does it mean now? The autonomous communities of Spain seem a more fruitful comparison.

    Personally the only feasible option I see is a deal where any further powers to Holyrood is combined with a reduction in the number of Scottish MPs. Everyone forgets that was a part of the the original settlement post 1997.
    Not permissible, that last, surely. People in Scotland need to be fully represented in non-devolved areas of policy, law, etc. SNP policy and, for a while till they abolished EVEL without any coherent explanation, Tory policy is for MPs for Scottish constituencies not to vote in devolved areas.

    Why Mr Gove abolished EVEL remains highly unclear, unless he was trying to create a trap for Labour in particular.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    In a way it makes me sad to see it so clean and neat. A museum.

    Bit like the library of medieval books at Merton College Oxford. Beautifully preserved and forever unread.

    A reciprocating engine room should a cross between a snipe marsh and an inferno, as (I think) Admiral Fisher commented.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wasps. Not seen that many so far this summer. (Famous last words)

    Quite an alarm recently about a nest in a children's playground near here!
    Oh dear. Two summers ago a local tea rooms, with an idyllic garden, was blighted by a nest. It was quite surreal seeing people struggle through afternoon tea. It was a warzone. I’ve seen about four wasps this year.
    We went to a Center Parcs about a month ago where every outside eating place was 'out of bounds', due to wasps!
    Sounds like I’ve been lucky this year, rather than 🐝 suffering due to the heat. Last time I was stung a wasp got under the tongue of my shoe whilst cycling and stung me repeatedly. Had a nasty reaction. I’m not a friend of the wasp ever since.
    Bit late to reply to this, but you’ve been very lucky. 2022 is the year of the wasp, right across Europe.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/07/heatwave-to-make-uks-plague-of-wasps-worst-for-years-17140545/amp/
    How odd. We've had noticeably fewer here in this bit of SE Scotland.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    In a way it makes me sad to see it so clean and neat. A museum.

    Bit like the library of medieval books at Merton College Oxford. Beautifully preserved and forever unread.

    A reciprocating engine room should a cross between a snipe marsh and an inferno, as (I think) Admiral Fisher commented.
    Oh, it's working all right - the Waverley as TUD has jus\t confirmed.

    https://waverleyexcursions.co.uk/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    You need to look up the meaning of 'sectarian'. I don't see Stu wearing a footie scarf while chanting "* the Pope". It detracts from your PBToryexpertise on Scottish
    matters.
    Okay then. It’s “Anglophobic August”. Better?

    The Tory Party seem not to think so*. The Tories actually tried claiming that Scottish criticism of Tory* policies was inherently racist and Anglophobic, but they back-tracked within a very few hours. That was in the months before the referendum of 2014, and I remember that very well - evidently a coordinated message out to all their mouthpieces in the news outlets, then an almost instant reverse ferret.

    *Not sure about today.

    **UKG included LDs at the time, of course.
    The criticism was of Dickson personally. He changed the headline of a piece, critical of water quality in “Britain”, to “England”, despite the article itself clearly referring to water companies on both sides of the border. Scottish Water is publicly owned.

    Scottish Nationalism is not inherently Anglophobic. Stuart Dickson absolutely is.

    Anyone with a brain is anglophobic at the moment. England voted Brexit and voted Tory even with the knowledge Johnson would be Prime Minister. The Scots didn't. Can you blame them for sneering and loathing us for
    the choices we foisted on them?
    Actually 40% or so of Scots did. Why are they never mentioned?
    If 100% of Scots had voted to Remain then
    the U.K. would have Remained.
    That would have been an absolutely hilarious result. Can you imagine the frothing on here?
    Indeed. Nations and nationalities are idiotic arbitrary divisions. I’d abolish them all. Municipalities, and loose, fluid, federations thereof, should be the basic governing unit.

    That is a great idea. I feel a lot more attachment to my neighbourhood and city than I do to the country we are located in. Real local devolution plus a world government to manage global issues would be an interesting setup.
    Or... Lots of layers, local as possible, large scale as necessary?

    One of the odd experiences of going to Europe is seeing multiple flags, representing everything from a town to a continent. Equal in size and status. Somehow, the British (by which, let's be honest, I mean the English) don't cope with that well. Why?
    Because the English used to rule half the world and so a lot of English people who might otherwise feel that they had received a raw deal out of life got to feel good about themselves by focusing intensely on the English part of their identity to the detriment of all others. Notice how British identity in Scotland has waxed and waned with the rise and fall of the British Empire. The English would feel a lot happier, and certainly be a hell of a lot better governed, if they embraced regionalism, localism and Europe. But I'm not English so it's not really my business.
    I'm not sure I understand this. The English don't seem to focus hugely on their Englishness from what I've seen. It's a very old country with a centralised state. Italy and Germany had much more history of regional government. Until recently a lot of England fans would wave the Union Jack rather than St George. Nice that you suggest it was the English not the British who ruled half the world.
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
    Zahawi and Kwarteng are both in the current government so do not need to wait a month (and so is Truss, come to mention it) if they have any viable proposals.

    The only government action we have seen was instigated months ago by Rishi Sunak; the only rival plans are from Sunak (again), Labour and energy companies themselves.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,341

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    To me it is almost certain that the next rise will be another 0.5% but the odds reflect that and are not particularly tempting. More would reek of panic and admissions of past failures to act. Less would be rightly condemned in light of inflation being so out of control.

    I am not impressed by Bailey and the others on the MPC. They have failed at their job and frankly I think that they should pay the penalty. Resignation by the Governor would be an acknowledgement of the Bank's failings.

    When they actually failed though is more difficult. The lag in interest rates is probably 18-2 years now given the preponderance of fixed rate borrowing. It would have been difficult to raise rates 2 years ago when Covid was at its peak and the economy was in recession. The mistakes really came earlier when the emergency rate from the GFC was allowed to persist. At the time it seemed growth was weak but fiscal policy in terms of the deficit was generous and the Bank failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as one politician once said. If they had gently built base rates up to 4% or so we would be in a much better place now.

    First, inflation at the moment comes from the supply side, not demand. Second, increasing interest rates as demand falls risks tipping us into recession. It's complicated. Even if we ignore supply and demand, increasing interest rates is itself inflationary, but insofar as it strengthens the pound, can reduce the price of fuel and other imports.
    We also have excess demand as shown by our balance of payments. Increasing interest rates is not generally inflationary. It should reduce the money supply by reducing new borrowing which should also reduce demand. The key factor though is what are real interest rates. Real interest rates are significantly higher than base rates but still substantially lower than inflation. There has never been a better time to borrow as much as you can because you will repay the debt in depreciated pounds. This itself is inflationary but weaning us off this extraordinary state of affairs has been neglected in the decade since the GFC.
    It is hard to say what the balance of payments means when so many staples are necessarily imported, including gas. It did not help that our Brexit negotiators favoured goods which we import, over services which we export.

    ETA and do not overlook the risks of recession.
    What it means is quite simple really. It means we are consuming more than we are sellling. Which means that we are living beyond our means. Which means we are getting progressively poorer as a nation with more and more of our assets owned by foreigners who want rent. If we want those means to improve we need to do some radical things to our domestic economy starting with productivity. If we want to stop getting poorer we need to cut demand for imports.
    At one level, yes, which is why it is irresponsible for PB's very own Posh & Becks — @Cyclefree and @Leon — to promote the Grand Tour round Renaissance Italy (is that why PB is called PB?) while others on this thread deter staycations with warnings of wasps, adders and dog excrement. And for HMG to sell our utilities to Europe and prostitute our national infrastructure to China. Or America. Raising interest rates to fight inflation will prop up the pound and make imports cheaper.
    Posh and Becks!!! 🤣

    I have invited @Leon for a beach picnic in the Lakes when he does his Grand Tour of neglected Britain. He has promised - though what that charming scoundrel's promises are worth is quite another matter.

    But I am not telling people where to go on holiday. I have just ventured an opinion on the attractions of Naples and, occasionally, on what type of coffee to drink.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    I find it reassuring that remaining loyalist PB Tories are taking comfort that opposition proposals are unworkable after they ALL voted for a Boris Johnson fantasy prospectus.
    The answer to Starmers proposals are to implement better and longer lasting ones

    Now whether Truss is going to achieve this we will all know sometime in September
    I feel a song coming on ...

    The weather here has been as nice as it can be
    And that's the thing that matters most to you and me
    As far as just how bad Liz Truss is going to be
    We might as well wait until September
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    Carnyx said:

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    Ooh, what's that? The Waverley? Shieldhall?
    OT. If either of you are in Edinburgh and enjoy art there's a really good life drawing exhibition by the Scottish artist Alan McGowan who speed paints a model in four positions. It's on in the 'Pianodrome' near the Scottish parliament and lasts an hour. I thought it was great.

    https://tickets.edfringe.com/whats-on/flow-a-life-painting-performance
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Just seen that panelbase. I think if you offered the Tories 20% in Scotland next time out they'd bite your arm off.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,304
    edited August 2022

    kjh said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I agree. You are very unlikely to see a smooth snake unless you are in Surrey or Dorset Heathland and even then unlikely as they are rare. Our snakes are quite short with the grass snake being by far the longest and the only one that can be green. The yellow marking behind the head is the usual give away.

    Of course there is the slow worm (legless lizard) that can be mistaken for a snake, but again it doesn't fit the description.
    I've seen a few grass snakes, admittedly not recently, but I don't recall one that I would describe as green.
    They are dark green or greenish brown, but they always have the yellow patch behind the head. They do vary in shade of green/brown so often it is not very pronounced.

    Neither of our other native snakes nor the slow worm are ever green although the adder and smooth snake do vary in colour also but usually brown to grey.

    The slow worm is very distinctive, but I would struggle to tell the difference between an adder and a smooth snake without a good look and 99 times out of 100 (if not more) it will be an adder.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    stjohn said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    To me it is almost certain that the next rise will be another 0.5% but the odds reflect that and are not particularly tempting. More would reek of panic and admissions of past failures to act. Less would be rightly condemned in light of inflation being so out of control.

    I am not impressed by Bailey and the others on the MPC. They have failed at their job and frankly I think that they should pay the penalty. Resignation by the Governor would be an acknowledgement of the Bank's failings.

    When they actually failed though is more difficult. The lag in interest rates is probably 18-2 years now given the preponderance of fixed rate borrowing. It would have been difficult to raise rates 2 years ago when Covid was at its peak and the economy was in recession. The mistakes really came earlier when the emergency rate from the GFC was allowed to persist. At the time it seemed growth was weak but fiscal policy in terms of the deficit was generous and the Bank failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as one politician once said. If they had gently built base rates up to 4% or so we would be in a much better place now.

    First, inflation at the moment comes from the supply side, not demand. Second, increasing interest rates as demand falls risks tipping us into recession. It's complicated. Even if we ignore supply and demand, increasing interest rates is itself inflationary, but insofar as it strengthens the pound, can reduce the price of fuel and other imports.
    We also have excess demand as shown by our balance of payments. Increasing interest rates is not generally inflationary. It should reduce the money supply by reducing new borrowing which should also reduce demand. The key factor though is what are real interest rates. Real interest rates are significantly higher than base rates but still substantially lower than inflation. There has never been a better time to borrow as much as you can because you will repay the debt in depreciated pounds. This itself is inflationary but weaning us off this extraordinary state of affairs has been neglected in the decade since the GFC.
    But if I borrow £100 at 4% for 12 months when inflation is at 10%, I have to find £104 at the end of the year to repay the debt. The £104 may now only be worth £93.60 in "old money" but the lender will want £104 off me and not £93.60. So for it to be a good idea to borrow the money I need to be able to invest it in something that will confidently return me a greater than 4% profit. What is that investment?
    Ditto why the notion you should get out of cash in times of high inflation is no slam dunk. Maybe, maybe not, depending on your circumstances and how you view alternatives.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    You need to look up the meaning of 'sectarian'. I don't see Stu wearing a footie scarf while chanting "* the Pope". It detracts from your PBToryexpertise on Scottish
    matters.
    Okay then. It’s “Anglophobic August”. Better?

    The Tory Party seem not to think so*. The Tories actually tried claiming that Scottish criticism of Tory* policies was inherently racist and Anglophobic, but they back-tracked within a very few hours. That was in the months before the referendum of 2014, and I remember that very well - evidently a coordinated message out to all their mouthpieces in the news outlets, then an almost instant reverse ferret.

    *Not sure about today.

    **UKG included LDs at the time, of course.
    The criticism was of Dickson personally. He changed the headline of a piece, critical of water quality in “Britain”, to “England”, despite the article itself clearly referring to water companies on both sides of the border. Scottish Water is publicly owned.

    Scottish Nationalism is not inherently Anglophobic. Stuart Dickson absolutely is.

    Anyone with a brain is anglophobic at the moment. England voted Brexit and voted Tory even with the knowledge Johnson would be Prime Minister. The Scots didn't. Can you blame them for sneering and loathing us for
    the choices we foisted on them?
    Actually 40% or so of Scots did. Why are they never mentioned?
    If 100% of Scots had voted to Remain then
    the U.K. would have Remained.
    That would have been an absolutely hilarious result. Can you imagine the frothing on here?
    Indeed. Nations and nationalities are idiotic arbitrary divisions. I’d abolish them all. Municipalities, and loose, fluid, federations thereof, should be the basic governing unit.

    That is a great idea. I feel a lot more attachment to my neighbourhood and city than I do to the country we are located in. Real local devolution plus a world government to manage global issues would be an interesting setup.
    Or... Lots of layers, local as possible, large scale as necessary?

    One of the odd experiences of going to Europe is seeing multiple flags, representing everything from a town to a continent. Equal in size and status. Somehow, the British (by which, let's be honest, I mean the English) don't cope with that well. Why?
    Because the English used to rule half the world and so a lot of English people who might otherwise feel that they had received a raw deal out of life got to feel good about themselves by focusing intensely on the English part of their identity to the detriment of all others. Notice how British identity in Scotland has waxed and waned with the rise and fall of the British Empire. The English would feel a lot happier, and certainly be a hell of a lot better governed, if they embraced regionalism, localism and Europe. But I'm not English so it's not really my business.
    I'm not sure I understand this. The English don't seem to focus hugely on their Englishness from what I've seen. It's a very old country with a centralised state. Italy and Germany had much more history of regional government. Until recently a lot of England fans would wave the Union Jack rather than St George. Nice that you suggest it was the English not the British who ruled half the world.
    In my experience most English people use the terms England and Britain almost interchangeably. I think few have really thought that they are two separate entities, certainly not until fairly recently. It was of course the British not the English Empire and I know that the Scots played a disproportionate role in building and administering it, including all the bad bits like slavery. Nevertheless to most English people I think that the Empire is seen as essentially an English endeavour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Some hot con rod action from the Clyde on this fine morning.


    In a way it makes me sad to see it so clean and neat. A museum.

    Bit like the library of medieval books at Merton College Oxford. Beautifully preserved and forever unread.

    A reciprocating engine room should a cross between a snipe marsh and an inferno, as (I think) Admiral Fisher commented.
    Tbf The Waverley is one of the hardest working boats in tourism. The smell of a working steam engine adds to the delight.
  • Net favourability:

    Scottish National Party +5
    Scottish Green Party +/-0
    Scottish Labour -3
    Scottish Liberal Democrats -13
    Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party -38

    (Ipsos Scotland; 12-15 August; sample size: 1,000)

    Heh but you tell us Labour is hated in Scotland, how strange.
  • Keir Starmer is consistently underrated. I maintain this POV.

    At every stage he has proved he knows how to play the political game.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    To me it is almost certain that the next rise will be another 0.5% but the odds reflect that and are not particularly tempting. More would reek of panic and admissions of past failures to act. Less would be rightly condemned in light of inflation being so out of control.

    I am not impressed by Bailey and the others on the MPC. They have failed at their job and frankly I think that they should pay the penalty. Resignation by the Governor would be an acknowledgement of the Bank's failings.

    When they actually failed though is more difficult. The lag in interest rates is probably 18-2 years now given the preponderance of fixed rate borrowing. It would have been difficult to raise rates 2 years ago when Covid was at its peak and the economy was in recession. The mistakes really came earlier when the emergency rate from the GFC was allowed to persist. At the time it seemed growth was weak but fiscal policy in terms of the deficit was generous and the Bank failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as one politician once said. If they had gently built base rates up to 4% or so we would be in a much better place now.

    First, inflation at the moment comes from the supply side, not demand. Second, increasing interest rates as demand falls risks tipping us into recession. It's complicated. Even if we ignore supply and demand, increasing interest rates is itself inflationary, but insofar as it strengthens the pound, can reduce the price of fuel and other imports.
    We also have excess demand as shown by our balance of payments. Increasing interest rates is not generally inflationary. It should reduce the money supply by reducing new borrowing which should also reduce demand. The key factor though is what are real interest rates. Real interest rates are significantly higher than base rates but still substantially lower than inflation. There has never been a better time to borrow as much as you can because you will repay the debt in depreciated pounds. This itself is inflationary but weaning us off this extraordinary state of affairs has been neglected in the decade since the GFC.
    It is hard to say what the balance of payments means when so many staples are necessarily imported, including gas. It did not help that our Brexit negotiators favoured goods which we import, over services which we export.

    ETA and do not overlook the risks of recession.
    What it means is quite simple really. It means we are consuming more than we are sellling. Which means that we are living beyond our means. Which means we are getting progressively poorer as a nation with more and more of our assets owned by foreigners who want rent. If we want those means to improve we need to do some radical things to our domestic economy starting with productivity. If we want to stop getting poorer we need to cut demand for imports.
    At one level, yes, which is why it is irresponsible for PB's very own Posh & Becks — @Cyclefree and @Leon — to promote the Grand Tour round Renaissance Italy (is that why PB is called PB?) while others on this thread deter staycations with warnings of wasps, adders and dog excrement. And for HMG to sell our utilities to Europe and prostitute our national infrastructure to China. Or America. Raising interest rates to fight inflation will prop up the pound and make imports cheaper.
    Posh and Becks!!! 🤣

    I have invited @Leon for a beach picnic in the Lakes when he does his Grand Tour of neglected Britain. He has promised - though what that charming scoundrel's promises are worth is quite another matter.

    But I am not telling people where to go on holiday. I have just ventured an opinion on the attractions of Naples and, occasionally, on what type of coffee to drink.
    I have only once in my life been menaced by a pack of wild dogs on the roadside under a burning hot sun and that was in Tuscany.
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    boulay said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    Could be a “blue on blue” - Kremlin/army lot who realise the war is messed up and either removing the idiots advising Putin or sending a message.

    Would possibly be better for Putin if it was Ukrainians behind it because if not then it could be the beginning of his end.
    I doubt it’s the Ukrainians. They’ve been very good at only going after military targets.

    Most likely blue on blue. Either another faction in the Kremlin or even Putin himself to either encourage the others or create a false cassus belli.

  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
    Zahawi and Kwarteng are both in the current government so do not need to wait a month (and so is Truss, come to mention it) if they have any viable proposals.

    The only government action we have seen was instigated months ago by Rishi Sunak; the only rival plans are from Sunak (again), Labour and energy companies themselves.
    I would just respectively suggest the conservative party are currently in the process of electing a new leader and they are not going to announce anything before the 6th September

    That is the reality of the situation, and the conservative party will have to live with the consequences
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The problem is that the Tories in the Red Wall are essentially operating as the opposition trying to get into Government, that is how dire their position has been.

    The Red Wall may have decided to vote Tory in 2019 but IMHO, their natural inclination of voting Labour is hard to change when voting Tory has led to them being betrayed and insulted. The Tories would have to do a lot to hold any of these seats.

    There has always been a level of arrogance for the Tories post 2019, they seemed to think they'd broken the Labour heartlands indefinitely, when actually what happened was Labour put up the most unpopular leader in history with the most unbelievable policies in recent history, trying to cancel or not have a position on Brexit.

    I believe Corbyn delivered those seats for Johnson. After all Ed M held the Red Wall and Keir is more popular than him. It is not surprising they are losing most of these seats and are unpopular in focus groups: they always were.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2022
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I thought it might be an escaped species as London zoo is on the same canal system as the Lea river and I'm fairly sure it was neon green and it was much stringier than the photos I've seen of the grass snake but I know nothing about non-Gove snakes and only saw it briefly.

    My other encounter with a snake was in Australia many years ago. I was hiking with a friend in the Blue Mountains and one slithered across into the path a few yards in front of us. Given how venemous some Australian snakes are, we froze and waited ten minutes for it to move, which eventually it did.
    I'm thinking highly poisonous boomslang.

    Weirdly you can buy venomous snakes in the UK and a lorra, generally extremely unpleasant, people do. And keep them in electrically heated whatsits (reptiliaria?) So I wouldn't be at all amazed by a spate of releases into the wild as this becomes unaffordable. Another aspect of the coming winter to look forward to.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
  • The fact we are having briefings about increasing tuition fees and taxing wind energy suggests to me that Truss doesn't have any ideas.
  • MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    This is irrelevant, the Tories cheered on Iraq and didn't get blamed for it. Politics is an unfair business, the Tories are just in Government this time during a bad period.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Keir Starmer is consistently underrated. I maintain this POV.

    At every stage he has proved he knows how to play the political game.

    By lying his way into the party leadership, sure.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
    Zahawi and Kwarteng are both in the current government so do not need to wait a month (and so is Truss, come to mention it) if they have any viable proposals.

    The only government action we have seen was instigated months ago by Rishi Sunak; the only rival plans are from Sunak (again), Labour and energy companies themselves.
    I would just respectively suggest the conservative party are currently in the process of electing a new leader and they are not going to announce anything before the 6th September

    That is the reality of the situation, and the conservative party will have to live with the consequences

    The voters are catching on to the fact that any 'help' package is paying them with their own money. Sunak's tax increases have seen to that. They know there's no such thing a free lunch. They've seen their tax bills.
  • Miliband was also behind the incumbent PM on likeability and the preference to lead, and Labour trailed the Tories on the economy by 10-20pts.

    Not so today.

    https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1560919074623963136

    Ben Walker was one of those that said the polls in 2010-2015 were wrong. He is not saying so now, this is fundamentally different.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    The fact we are having briefings about increasing tuition fees and taxing wind energy suggests to me that Truss doesn't have any ideas.

    It isn't Truss pressing for the fee increases. It is the universities themselves.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,345
    edited August 2022
    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    I really find it difficult to accept your argument when you ignore completely the war in Ukraine which is the direct driver of energy prices and inflation, not only here but across Europe and I understand some Baltic countries have eye watering inflation

    https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1731406/baltic-states-report-highest-inflation-in-euro-zone#:~:text=Inflation in Estonia, Lithuania and,rates at 10% or above.&text=Inflation in Germany fell slightly,percent decrease from May numbers.
  • https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1561041660091449345

    Keir Starmer may not know what a woman is. But Liz Truss certainly does > Mail Plus >

    The Tories don't seem to actually want to win elections, back to talking about what a woman is. 2000s-era vibes
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    This is irrelevant, the Tories cheered on Iraq and didn't get blamed for it. Politics is an unfair business, the Tories are just in Government this time during a bad period.
    Possibly because they dumped the lobotomised pig who led them at the relevant time.
  • MISTY said:

    The fact we are having briefings about increasing tuition fees and taxing wind energy suggests to me that Truss doesn't have any ideas.

    It isn't Truss pressing for the fee increases. It is the universities themselves.
    Truss seems like she would support these policies, she loves to screw young people over
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    A successful assasination of Dubin would have also, one supposes, enraged Putin & Co.
    Unless Putin was behind the assassination of course.

    If a high profile Russian political figure dies, the order usually traces back to a falling out with the Kremlin.
    Yes. Anyone who looks like they might be getting to be too popular suddenly looks like a potential rallying point for discontent.
    @Barty - I assume you mean when they get murdered, not just when they die.

    How many "high profile Russian political figures" can either of you name who were assassinated in the last 10 years and for whom the overwhelmingly likely cause of death was that an order went out from the Kremlin?

    Boris Nemtsov is probably on your list. Who else?

    Boris Berezovsky wasn't a political figure, was never going to be anybody's rallying point, and in any case nobody would put it at p>0.9 that the order came solely from the Kremlin. The coroner said he may have topped himself (not that I think that's remotely likely) and recorded an open verdict.

    Names please.
    Successful assassinations (not botched jobs).
    From the past 10 years (not from the Yeltsin years).
    High-profile political figures (not mafia figures who had little to do with politics).
    And Russians.
    After a falling-out with the Kremlin.

    You're fantasising. Putin has mostly been highly popular and would have defeated Nemtsov or Khodorkovsky in an election. All that means is what it says. But if you want to understand Putin...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
    Zahawi and Kwarteng are both in the current government so do not need to wait a month (and so is Truss, come to mention it) if they have any viable proposals.

    The only government action we have seen was instigated months ago by Rishi Sunak; the only rival plans are from Sunak (again), Labour and energy companies themselves.
    I'm pretty pissed off with the dithering, however it is also true that timing wise it just needs to be before the next cap rise takes place/before recess on Sept 22nd, the Sunak May/June package is in place, the Starmer proposal does nothing right now. My fear is there is and will be no package. If there is, and its comprehensive and deals with the longer term then 2 or 3 weeks is fine. If its not, however, i think the Tories will get engulfed by the anger (and thats just from me!)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,522
    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1561041660091449345

    Keir Starmer may not know what a woman is. But Liz Truss certainly does > Mail Plus >

    The Tories don't seem to actually want to win elections, back to talking about what a woman is. 2000s-era vibes

    No, it’s not woke stuff, it's about how she is Thatcher reborn
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I thought it might be an escaped species as London zoo is on the same canal system as the Lea river and I'm fairly sure it was neon green and it was much stringier than the photos I've seen of the grass snake but I know nothing about non-Gove snakes and only saw it briefly.

    My other encounter with a snake was in Australia many years ago. I was hiking with a friend in the Blue Mountains and one slithered across into the path a few yards in front of us. Given how venemous some Australian snakes are, we froze and waited ten minutes for it to move, which eventually it did.
    I'm thinking highly poisonous boomslang.

    Weirdly you can buy venomous snakes in the UK and a lorra, generally extremely unpleasant, people do. And keep them in electrically heated whatsits (reptiliaria?) So I wouldn't be at all amazed by a spate of releases into the wild as this becomes unaffordable. Another aspect of the coming winter to look forward to.
    Late summer and autumn, surely: winter should stun and then kill them? But not such things as rattlesnakes which are also temperate forms.

    But they will go into houses and shops and offices which are still warm, though.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1561041660091449345

    Keir Starmer may not know what a woman is. But Liz Truss certainly does > Mail Plus >

    The Tories don't seem to actually want to win elections, back to talking about what a woman is. 2000s-era vibes

    No, it’s not woke stuff, it's about how she is Thatcher reborn
    She just isn't though.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,401
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I thought it might be an escaped species as London zoo is on the same canal system as the Lea river and I'm fairly sure it was neon green and it was much stringier than the photos I've seen of the grass snake but I know nothing about non-Gove snakes and only saw it briefly.

    My other encounter with a snake was in Australia many years ago. I was hiking with a friend in the Blue Mountains and one slithered across into the path a few yards in front of us. Given how venemous some Australian snakes are, we froze and waited ten minutes for it to move, which eventually it did.
    I'm thinking highly poisonous boomslang.

    Weirdly you can buy venomous snakes in the UK and a lorra, generally extremely unpleasant, people do. And keep them in electrically heated whatsits (reptiliaria?) So I wouldn't be at all amazed by a spate of releases into the wild as this becomes unaffordable. Another aspect of the coming winter to look forward to.
    Late summer and autumn, surely: winter should stun and then kill them? But not such things as rattlesnakes which are also temperate forms.

    But they will go into houses and shops and offices which are still warm, though.
    They'd fit right in at some of the places I've worked.

    In fact, some may even get promotions to senior management.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited August 2022

    Miliband was also behind the incumbent PM on likeability and the preference to lead, and Labour trailed the Tories on the economy by 10-20pts.

    Not so today.

    https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1560919074623963136

    Ben Walker was one of those that said the polls in 2010-2015 were wrong. He is not saying so now, this is fundamentally different.

    The one note of caution i'd give here Horse is that Labour are not seeing, in by elections parliamentary or local, or in the 2022 locals generally, votes piling up to suggest a 97 type turnaround/glorious victory. They are fighting for largest party, i think around a dead heat seat result is very possible. (Which means Starmer PM but a very stressful pork barrel term)

    That being said, right now and the reactions to the new PM and how each party responds to CoL may change that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    I'm just puzzled as to why he thinks 100 years of underinvestment in proper water and sewerage systems is linked to Brexit.

    Although if Scotland ever votes to leave I'll be intrigued to see how every public sector disaster caused by chronic lack of money is not attributed to Sindy...
    I think Mark Steel is a bit starry-eyed about swimming conditions before the mid-90s.
    In Newcastle, as late as 1970 raw sewage was still routinely (not irregularly) discharged into the Tyne. To the extent that on hot days it wasn't possible to do any work in the city centre due to the smell. Nothing was done until the Council's own offices started to be impacted.

    I would be surprised to learn that was unusual. I know in the 1950s the salmon population in the Severn was severely damaged because of the sewage from Gloucester and Worcester in the estuary.
    On Wednesday we were swimming in the sea near Eastbourne pier. In the surf we found a plastic bag containing a nappy. I've no idea if this was something swept out with sewage, or swept into the sea after being discarded on a beach, but it was yucky.

    (On another pollution point: why do sodding dog owners leave plastic bundles of poo everywhere?)
    On a happier note, we were punting on the Cam yesterday, and on the way back from Granchester Meadows we saw the most incredible, and terrifying, sight - an adder swimming in the river. It held its head up out of the water and had its mouth open. Rather put me off wild swimming. Sadly we didn't get a photo or video but it's a sight none of us will ever forget!
    I was on the Lea River cycle path a few weeks ago and almost ran over a long, thin snake on the towpath as it slithered towards the undergrowth. I have no idea what type of snake it was - I think it was about two feet long and luminous green but I only saw it very briefly. Does anybody know what type of snake it could been?

    Michael Gove was elsewhere that day so it wasn't his alter ego.
    There are only 3 native snake species in the UK (four including Gove), and from your description it sounds like it was a grass snake.
    I thought it might be an escaped species as London zoo is on the same canal system as the Lea river and I'm fairly sure it was neon green and it was much stringier than the photos I've seen of the grass snake but I know nothing about non-Gove snakes and only saw it briefly.

    My other encounter with a snake was in Australia many years ago. I was hiking with a friend in the Blue Mountains and one slithered across into the path a few yards in front of us. Given how venemous some Australian snakes are, we froze and waited ten minutes for it to move, which eventually it did.
    I'm thinking highly poisonous boomslang.

    Weirdly you can buy venomous snakes in the UK and a lorra, generally extremely unpleasant, people do. And keep them in electrically heated whatsits (reptiliaria?) So I wouldn't be at all amazed by a spate of releases into the wild as this becomes unaffordable. Another aspect of the coming winter to look forward to.
    Late summer and autumn, surely: winter should stun and then kill them? But not such things as rattlesnakes which are also temperate forms.

    But they will go into houses and shops and offices which are still warm, though.
    It's complicated but many non-tropical snakes either hibernate or do a hibernation lite called brumation.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    A successful assasination of Dubin would have also, one supposes, enraged Putin & Co.
    Unless Putin was behind the assassination of course.

    If a high profile Russian political figure dies, the order usually traces back to a falling out with the Kremlin.
    Yes. Anyone who looks like they might be getting to be too popular suddenly looks like a potential rallying point for discontent.
    @Barty - I assume you mean when they get murdered, not just when they die.

    How many "high profile Russian political figures" can either of you name who were assassinated in the last 10 years and for whom the overwhelmingly likely cause of death was that an order went out from the Kremlin?

    Boris Nemtsov is probably on your list. Who else?

    Boris Berezovsky wasn't a political figure, was never going to be anybody's rallying point, and in any case nobody would put it at p>0.9 that the order came solely from the Kremlin. The coroner said he may have topped himself (not that I think that's remotely likely) and recorded an open verdict.

    Names please.
    Successful assassinations (not botched jobs).
    From the past 10 years (not from the Yeltsin years).
    High-profile political figures (not mafia figures who had little to do with politics).
    And Russians.
    After a falling-out with the Kremlin.

    You're fantasising. Putin has mostly been highly popular and would have defeated Nemtsov or Khodorkovsky in an election. All that means is what it says. But if you want to understand Putin...
    This is the kind of image Putin had for many people in Russia, at least before the Russo-Ukrainian war started this year:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co8s0egftsc
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
    We don;t need an export ban. We just need to make sure the government takes its cut of the gas produced. It always has. Bloomberg reported in May the treasury is making record profits from the stuff we are producing.

    How many billions would selling the Germans gas be netting the treasury right now, if the tories had started fracking in 2017?

    Kerching.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,764

    boulay said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    Could be a “blue on blue” - Kremlin/army lot who realise the war is messed up and either removing the idiots advising Putin or sending a message.

    Would possibly be better for Putin if it was Ukrainians behind it because if not then it could be the beginning of his end.
    I doubt it’s the Ukrainians. They’ve been very good at only going after military targets.

    Most likely blue on blue. Either another faction in the Kremlin or even Putin himself to either encourage the others or create a false cassus belli.

    Car bomb is a favourite of the Chechens. eg Mauhari in Kiev a few years ago,
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    The fact we are having briefings about increasing tuition fees and taxing wind energy suggests to me that Truss doesn't have any ideas.

    It isn't Truss pressing for the fee increases. It is the universities themselves.
    Truss seems like she would support these policies, she loves to screw young people over
    In 2021 the government effectively shut down the education of young people for months on end. Labour cheered and said, as usual, it should have gone on for longer.

    Many had their learning disrupted. Some had their learning destroyed.

    That's screwing over young people, right there.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 768

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
    When do we expect the emergency budget? Unless things change they only have from 5th -22nd September, with the HoC returning on 17th October.

    The problem is that a quick announcement -before 22nd September will probably produce ill thought out policies. If they take the time - at the end of October - to make sure the policies are watertight then the delay will make them look weak.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1561041660091449345

    Keir Starmer may not know what a woman is. But Liz Truss certainly does > Mail Plus >

    The Tories don't seem to actually want to win elections, back to talking about what a woman is. 2000s-era vibes

    No, it’s not woke stuff, it's about how she is Thatcher reborn
    She just isn't though.
    That is for the voters to decide though. If the wool is successfully pulled then north is south.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Icarus said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
    When do we expect the emergency budget? Unless things change they only have from 5th -22nd September, with the HoC returning on 17th October.

    The problem is that a quick announcement -before 22nd September will probably produce ill thought out policies. If they take the time - at the end of October - to make sure the policies are watertight then the delay will make them look weak.
    It will need to be before the price cap hits, so before conferences.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    So where does this weeks polling head?
    YouGov and Opinium - big move to Lab
    Panelbase and BMG - no move to Lab
    I reckon Redfield tomorrow will be back to double digits
  • Miliband was also behind the incumbent PM on likeability and the preference to lead, and Labour trailed the Tories on the economy by 10-20pts.

    Not so today.

    https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1560919074623963136

    Ben Walker was one of those that said the polls in 2010-2015 were wrong. He is not saying so now, this is fundamentally different.

    The one note of caution i'd give here Horse is that Labour are not seeing, in by elections parliamentary or local, or in the 2022 locals generally, votes piling up to suggest a 97 type turnaround/glorious victory. They are fighting for largest party, i think around a dead heat seat result is very possible. (Which means Starmer PM but a very stressful pork barrel term)

    That being said, right now and the reactions to the new PM and how each party responds to CoL may change that.
    Labour largest party remains my central forecast.

    Seat range is between 280 ish and 320 seats
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    Could be a “blue on blue” - Kremlin/army lot who realise the war is messed up and either removing the idiots advising Putin or sending a message.

    Would possibly be better for Putin if it was Ukrainians behind it because if not then it could be the beginning of his end.
    I doubt it’s the Ukrainians. They’ve been very good at only going after military targets.

    Most likely blue on blue. Either another faction in the Kremlin or even Putin himself to either encourage the others or create a false cassus belli.

    Car bomb is a favourite of the Chechens. eg Mauhari in Kiev a few years ago,
    Himself Chechen.
  • Icarus said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
    When do we expect the emergency budget? Unless things change they only have from 5th -22nd September, with the HoC returning on 17th October.

    The problem is that a quick announcement -before 22nd September will probably produce ill thought out policies. If they take the time - at the end of October - to make sure the policies are watertight then the delay will make them look weak.
    The emergency budget is due on the 21st September

    The HOC returns from the 5th September until the 22nd September before adjourning for the conference season
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Brexit has turned England into a turd world country.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/look-bright-side-sea-sewage-27791730

    Morning Stu, it seems it's Sectarian Sunday.

    Publicly owned Scottish Water features in your linked piece. Sturgeon's Shitty Scotland?

    When they were publicly owned, you had no choice but to swim in a boring sea, that was just wet all over. But now you can either carry on in a sea that’s old-fashioned, or you can choose a more interesting one with islands of mucky toilet paper floating through it.

    Katy Taylor, of Scottish Water, reassured us by saying it was up to the public to decide whether it’s safe, hinting we shouldn’t worry because the sea is “95% rainwater”.


    Your man Mark Steel doesn't seem to have noticed that that one *is* publicly owned.
    You need to look up the meaning of 'sectarian'. I don't see Stu wearing a footie scarf while chanting "* the Pope". It detracts from your PBToryexpertise on Scottish
    matters.
    Okay then. It’s “Anglophobic August”. Better?

    The Tory Party seem not to think so*. The Tories actually tried claiming that Scottish criticism of Tory* policies was inherently racist and Anglophobic, but they back-tracked within a very few hours. That was in the months before the referendum of 2014, and I remember that very well - evidently a coordinated message out to all their mouthpieces in the news outlets, then an almost instant reverse ferret.

    *Not sure about today.

    **UKG included LDs at the time, of course.
    The criticism was of Dickson personally. He changed the headline of a piece, critical of water quality in “Britain”, to “England”, despite the article itself clearly referring to water companies on both sides of the border. Scottish Water is publicly owned.

    Scottish Nationalism is not inherently Anglophobic. Stuart Dickson absolutely is.

    Anyone with a brain is anglophobic at the moment. England voted Brexit and voted Tory even with the knowledge Johnson would be Prime Minister. The Scots didn't. Can you blame them for sneering and loathing us for
    the choices we foisted on them?
    Actually 40% or so of Scots did. Why are they never mentioned?
    If 100% of Scots had voted to Remain then
    the U.K. would have Remained.
    That would have been an absolutely hilarious result. Can you imagine the frothing on here?
    Indeed. Nations and nationalities are idiotic arbitrary divisions. I’d abolish them all. Municipalities, and loose, fluid, federations thereof, should be the basic governing unit.

    That is a great idea. I feel a lot more attachment to my neighbourhood and city than I do to the country we are located in. Real local devolution plus a world government to manage global issues would be an interesting setup.
    Or... Lots of layers, local as possible, large scale as necessary?

    One of the odd experiences of going to Europe is seeing multiple flags, representing everything from a town to a continent. Equal in size and status. Somehow, the British (by which, let's be honest, I mean the English) don't cope with that well. Why?
    Because the English used to rule half the world and so a lot of English people who might otherwise feel that they had received a raw deal out of life got to feel good about themselves by focusing intensely on the English part of their identity to the detriment of all others. Notice how British identity in Scotland has waxed and waned with the rise and fall of the British Empire. The English would feel a lot happier, and certainly be a hell of a lot better governed, if they embraced regionalism, localism and Europe. But I'm not English so it's not really my business.
    I'm not sure I understand this. The English don't seem to focus hugely on their Englishness from what I've seen. It's a very old country with a centralised state. Italy and Germany had much more history of regional government. Until recently a lot of England fans would wave the Union Jack rather than St George. Nice that you suggest it was the English not the British who ruled half the world.
    Do we have our first PB Engsh expert?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dynamo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    This failed assassination on Dugin is likely to enrage Putin and his gang of thieves. Even more than the embarrassment of Crimean holidaymakers seeing his Black Sea strength inflamed with their own eyes. Could be a dangerous couple of weeks ahead.

    A successful assasination of Dubin would have also, one supposes, enraged Putin & Co.
    Unless Putin was behind the assassination of course.

    If a high profile Russian political figure dies, the order usually traces back to a falling out with the Kremlin.
    Yes. Anyone who looks like they might be getting to be too popular suddenly looks like a potential rallying point for discontent.
    @Barty - I assume you mean when they get murdered, not just when they die.

    How many "high profile Russian political figures" can either of you name who were assassinated in the last 10 years and for whom the overwhelmingly likely cause of death was that an order went out from the Kremlin?

    Boris Nemtsov is probably on your list. Who else?

    Boris Berezovsky wasn't a political figure, was never going to be anybody's rallying point, and in any case nobody would put it at p>0.9 that the order came solely from the Kremlin. The coroner said he may have topped himself (not that I think that's remotely likely) and recorded an open verdict.

    Names please.
    Successful assassinations (not botched jobs).
    From the past 10 years (not from the Yeltsin years).
    High-profile political figures (not mafia figures who had little to do with politics).
    And Russians.
    After a falling-out with the Kremlin.

    You're fantasising. Putin has mostly been highly popular and would have defeated Nemtsov or Khodorkovsky in an election. All that means is what it says. But if you want to understand Putin...
    Perepilichnyy, Skripal, Scot Young, Gorbuntsov, all those Russianambassadors.

    Not clear why botched jobs don't count, nor that mafia vs politics is a meaningful distinction in Russia
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
    We don;t need an export ban. We just need to make sure the government takes its cut of the gas produced. It always has. Bloomberg reported in May the treasury is making record profits from the stuff we are producing.

    How many billions would selling the Germans gas be netting the treasury right now, if the tories had started fracking in 2017?

    Kerching.
    Very little. UK is not the place for fracking, geologically.

    Edit: anyway the UK does already rely in part on a form of fracking, just offshore where it is actually useful.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
    We don;t need an export ban. We just need to make sure the government takes its cut of the gas produced. It always has. Bloomberg reported in May the treasury is making record profits from the stuff we are producing.

    How many billions would selling the Germans gas be netting the treasury right now, if the tories had started fracking in 2017?

    Kerching.
    Very little. UK is not the place for fracking, geologically.

    Edit: anyway the UK does already rely in part on a form of fracking, just offshore where it is actually useful.
    There was a guy on the tory hustings trail who vehemently disagreed with you.

    But then, he was a mining engineer, so what would he know?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022

    Net favourability:

    Scottish National Party +5
    Scottish Green Party +/-0
    Scottish Labour -3
    Scottish Liberal Democrats -13
    Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party -38

    (Ipsos Scotland; 12-15 August; sample size: 1,000)

    Heh but you tell us Labour is hated in Scotland, how strange.
    More like people can't be arsed to hate them. Look at the voting figures. (But it is an interesting discrepancy that you note.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2022
    MISTY said:

    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
    We don;t need an export ban. We just need to make sure the government takes its cut of the gas produced. It always has. Bloomberg reported in May the treasury is making record profits from the stuff we are producing.

    How many billions would selling the Germans gas be netting the treasury right now, if the tories had started fracking in 2017?

    Kerching.
    Very little. UK is not the place for fracking, geologically.

    Edit: anyway the UK does already rely in part on a form of fracking, just offshore where it is actually useful.
    There was a guy on the tory hustings trail who vehemently disagreed with you.

    But then, he was a mining engineer, so what would he know?
    Engineers aren't geologists. The detailed study I read was by a geologist. And what he said made sense: heavily faulted, lots of the strata already cooked off by intrusions and deep burial, etc., in contrast to the huge sedimentary basins in the US.
  • Keir Starmer is consistently underrated. I maintain this POV.

    At every stage he has proved he knows how to play the political game.

    And partly, he's done that by not looking like a politician.

    That's pretty impressive.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 768
    edited August 2022

    Icarus said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
    When do we expect the emergency budget? Unless things change they only have from 5th -22nd September, with the HoC returning on 17th October.

    The problem is that a quick announcement -before 22nd September will probably produce ill thought out policies. If they take the time - at the end of October - to make sure the policies are watertight then the delay will make them look weak.
    The emergency budget is due on the 21st September

    The HOC returns from the 5th September until the 22nd September before adjourning for the conference season
    Mad. You cannot produce a budget and then not allow MPs, of all parties, time to discuss it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Miliband was also behind the incumbent PM on likeability and the preference to lead, and Labour trailed the Tories on the economy by 10-20pts.

    Not so today.

    https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1560919074623963136

    Ben Walker was one of those that said the polls in 2010-2015 were wrong. He is not saying so now, this is fundamentally different.

    The one note of caution i'd give here Horse is that Labour are not seeing, in by elections parliamentary or local, or in the 2022 locals generally, votes piling up to suggest a 97 type turnaround/glorious victory. They are fighting for largest party, i think around a dead heat seat result is very possible. (Which means Starmer PM but a very stressful pork barrel term)

    That being said, right now and the reactions to the new PM and how each party responds to CoL may change that.
    Labour largest party remains my central forecast.

    Seat range is between 280 ish and 320 seats
    One way to look at it is the swing required to achieve certain objectives.
    For Labour to be largest party they'd need the Tories to lose about 95 seats probably, which is a 6.67% swing generally. About a 3 point Labour lead?
    For Labour to get to 320 seats they'd need Blairs 10.1% swing or about an 11 point lead
    A 15 point lead gets them roughly to the 2005 majority (although UNS would have shattered by this point)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    MISTY said:

    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    The electorate knows why energy prices are high. It knows that its because of gigantic policy mistakes by the coalition, Cameron's government, May's government and Johnson's government.

    Decisions mostly applauded by Labour and criticised only because they did not go far enough.

    People know that you can't aim to phase out hydrocarbons and have cheap hydrocarbons at the same time.
    What would have been the specific policy that you think would have prevented this? The best I can think of from a "more hydrocarbons" angle is subsidizing domestic production so you have capacity even though it would be cheaper to import, and then once in the current situation to ban exports.
    We don;t need an export ban. We just need to make sure the government takes its cut of the gas produced. It always has. Bloomberg reported in May the treasury is making record profits from the stuff we are producing.

    How many billions would selling the Germans gas be netting the treasury right now, if the tories had started fracking in 2017?

    Kerching.
    Very little. UK is not the place for fracking, geologically.

    Edit: anyway the UK does already rely in part on a form of fracking, just offshore where it is actually useful.
    There was a guy on the tory hustings trail who vehemently disagreed with you.

    But then, he was a mining engineer, so what would he know?
    I think fracking has probably stalled for the same reason as North Sea Oil has stalled. 5th column in Government agencies acquiescing with green extremists to bring everything to a standstill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    One thing the sky high energy prices do do is boost the case for independence. Energy is as big a problem for England on its own as currency is for Scotland, so there's forces on both sides to come to something something sensible should the vote occur
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    Keir Starmer is consistently underrated. I maintain this POV.

    At every stage he has proved he knows how to play the political game.

    And partly, he's done that by not looking like a politician.

    That's pretty impressive.
    People, I believe, said that, I said that about Clement Attlee. The man who won labours largest majority before 1997.
    Although, to be fair, Attlee had had a long political career before 1945.
  • Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    Team Truss is heavy on free market headbangers for whom any intervention other than tax cuts is anathema, and some aren't sure about tax cuts. I doubt Truss is working on any plan; instead she will make a last minute choice from whatever menu the civil service presents next month.
    Both Zahawi and Kwarteng have publicly stated they are looking at the cost of living crisis and will have proposals to submit to the new PM

    It is also understood the government are looking at the energy companies proposals for a two year freeze in the cap as discussed on here last night

    There will be proposals, and they will be announced by the 21st September, but of course earlier post the new PM taking office would be sensible
    Zahawi and Kwarteng are both in the current government so do not need to wait a month (and so is Truss, come to mention it) if they have any viable proposals.

    The only government action we have seen was instigated months ago by Rishi Sunak; the only rival plans are from Sunak (again), Labour and energy companies themselves.
    I would just respectively suggest the conservative party are currently in the process of electing a new leader and they are not going to announce anything before the 6th September

    That is the reality of the situation, and the conservative party will have to live with the consequences
    Look at it the other way, though.

    What is the pressing issue of the moment, and probably the next two years? Cost of living, especially energy.

    And Truss is planning to get into No 10 before telling us what she plans to do about the biggest issue facing her?

    That's not on.

    (And she has says what she wants to do, which is cut taxes. It's just we don't believe that is her final answer, because it's so tangential to the size and location of the problem.)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    On topic: interest rate hikes are no longer much use to the base because retail banks will use them to profiteer. The whole lot will go on loans and mortgages, whilst about 0.00001% of it will be applied to savings.

    The base is more invested in continuously hyperinflating house prices. Should bank rate increase sufficiently to finally stake that particular vampire then there could be ructions.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 550

    The water companies are semi-connected to politics. The partial connection means that the treasury can’t say no to investment. The regulator explicitly “listens to public concerns”. Spending billions over a decade or 2 to increase capacity* to prevent discharges wasn’t on the table until it has popped up now. Cleaner, cheaper water from the tap was. And that is what we got…

    I would prefer it if our public institutions also *anticipated* public concerns. Somebody needs to do the long-term planning, and it's not likely to be the general public...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    edited August 2022
    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Taz said:
    The lack of anything from the government means SKS can basically trot out any old muck and clean up for now.
    Govt response will need to be far more wide ranging and longer term, provide actual help now that SKS is removing on top of dealing with the cap and deal with business being gouged.
    Will it? Will it fuck.
    The silence is embarrassing and giving Starmer a field day

    Even this morning Truss's spokesperson on Sky was wittering on making little sense, and my conclusion is they are working on a comprehensive scheme to be announced in September and not before despite the political flack

    However, if not then it is over for the conservatives, Truss and many of their mps and they will have plenty of time to reflect on their 'kamikaze' Summer of 2022
    If they are not then what indeed is the point in them?
    I dont see why they cant say 'we are working on a comprehensive package and, if i become PM on Sept 5th, will hold an emergency budget to present and vote on these plans before any cap changes take place'
    That she hasn't leads me to suspect they arent.
    I really do think it is beyond belief that they are not working on the proposals as the COE has already said

    I suspect the problem is Truss still is foreign secretary and cannot assume she will become PM and is standing by that position
    Its increasingly probable that they are hopeless, witless goobers.
    Talk now of a £6000 cap. 'Tax cuts' is like saying we need to deal with that wasp before we fight off this T Rex
    If that is all it is then it is over, not only for Truss, but the conservative party
    Deservedly so in those circs
    I absolutely agree but I really do not think even Truss is that idiotic
    When do we expect the emergency budget? Unless things change they only have from 5th -22nd September, with the HoC returning on 17th October.

    The problem is that a quick announcement -before 22nd September will probably produce ill thought out policies. If they take the time - at the end of October - to make sure the policies are watertight then the delay will make them look weak.
    The emergency budget is due on the 21st September

    The HOC returns from the 5th September until the 22nd September before adjourning for the conference season
    Mad. You cannot produce a budget and then not allow MPs, of all parties, time to discuss it.
    Truss surely is continuity Johnson. So not involving Parliament in something as important as that would be par for the course!
This discussion has been closed.