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Opinium has Starmer with an 8% “Best PM” lead over Truss – politicalbetting.com

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  • Liz Truss will be the last PM of the UK who'll try and make a success out of Brexit.
    Once the Tories are dumped in two years, Brexit will be something to be mitigated against not something to pursue.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Reports that the daughter of Alexander Dugin has been assassinated in Moscow.

    https://www.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561098120506769410

    There are very strange things afoot in Russia. (Regardless of whether this particular thing turns out to be true or not).
    Too many peculiar events.
    Is there a possibility there is a rogue FSB anti-Puti n element at large?
    Seems a bit too much for Ukrainian (or other) special forces ?
    Thoughts?
    She's hardly an obvious target. If Ukrainian special forces were to engage in such a risky operation surely they are more likely to target someone else?
    The idea is that the perps were out to get her dad and got her by accident.

    File hitting non-obvious targets under "surprise". Although personally and having not yet read much on this action, I doubt Ukrainian special forces had anything to do with it.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,035

    Doesn't really suggest much of a Truss bounce is incoming.

    At what point do we accept this is the beginning of the end for this period of Tory Government? If it was Labour we'd not hesitate, they've had over a decade. Things come to an end.

    10pm on election night when the exit poll comes out.

    All things come to an end, but it'll take more than Ed Miliband levels of opinion polling to confirm that. Especially before Truss has even had a single day in Downing Street, or a single Budget presented.
    Ed M never tied on the economy.

    Or led Cameron for best PM.

    This is not Ed M again.
    Indeed it isn't. Further contrasts:

    1. Lab and LD supporters are once again prepared to vote for each other tactically, where necessary. In 2015 the Cons picked up swathes of LD seats because Labour supporters could no longer stomach voting for Cameron's coalition partners. (And in 2019 Corbyn had the same effect on LD supporters.) So expect Lab and LD support to be more efficiently distributed than at any time from 2015 onwards.

    2. It would be astounding if we saw another opinion poll epic fail to mirror 2015, when Miliband's Labour was supposedly level pegging on polling day only to lose by 7%.

    3. In 2010, Osborne contrived to engineer a recession at the start of the 5 year term and reaped electoral benefits of a limited recovery at the end. This time, we seem likely to get a full blown recession at the end of the 5 years, plus we've as yet only felt the early winds of a cost of living hurricane. The political and economic cycles are no longer aligned in the governing party's favour.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,327

    Liz Truss will be the last PM of the UK who'll try and make a success out of Brexit.
    Once the Tories are dumped in two years, Brexit will be something to be mitigated against not something to pursue.

    Yes, spot on. The brutal fact of the matter is that Brexit (as was 'engineered' by Boris, Rees-Mogg etc.) will go down as as a failed experiment. We've got to face up to the new reality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357

    Liz Truss will be the last PM of the UK who'll try and make a success out of Brexit.
    Once the Tories are dumped in two years, Brexit will be something to be mitigated against not something to pursue.

    Conservative leaders are not going to turn their backs on Brexit anytime soon if ever. Even Starmer knows he cannot turn his back on it and win as he loses the redwall
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,811
    Leon said:

    Firenze this morning. Trillions of tourists at 8am. But, still, look at it




    I always found Florence a bit of a disappointment compared to Venice and Rome.

    Better than Naples though.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,059
    Cyclefree - I hope your daughter recovers quickly and completely, and that, if she needs more treatment, that she gets it, promptly. Sounds like a tough situation for her, and your family.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Cheer up everyone. I had a “chocolate martini” in the Piazza Della Signoria at 150-year-old Cafe Rivoire


    That sounds revolting.
    To be honest that was my expectation. I don’t even like cocktails. But I was in an effervescent mood - having a very fun time in Florence - so I had a cocktail. This one




    And it was totally YUM. So I thought: why not try the absurd “chocolate martini”? The Cafe Rivoire is famous for its chocolate. And… it was actually quite nice. And very pleasingly decadent

    Anyone who posts "yum" or " yummy" on an internet blog should be in the first cohort against the wall in La Truss's revolution.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,327
    HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss will be the last PM of the UK who'll try and make a success out of Brexit.
    Once the Tories are dumped in two years, Brexit will be something to be mitigated against not something to pursue.

    Conservative leaders are not going to turn their backs on Brexit anytime soon if ever. Even Starmer knows he cannot turn his back on it and win as he loses the redwall
    I think not. Leaverism is going to become massively sidelined in the years ahead, what with Brexit giving no palpable benefits whatsoever. The Tory party will sniff where the wind's blowing. They always do.
  • HYUFD said:

    Liz Truss will be the last PM of the UK who'll try and make a success out of Brexit.
    Once the Tories are dumped in two years, Brexit will be something to be mitigated against not something to pursue.

    Conservative leaders are not going to turn their backs on Brexit anytime soon if ever. Even Starmer knows he cannot turn his back on it and win as he loses the redwall
    He can't take us back into single market in the next few years because of FOM, I'll grant that.
    But we'll be a lot closer to the EU in 2028/9 than we are now, that's for sure.
  • If the Tories are out, it's for a while IMHO.

    10 years of Labour Government seems likely, this feels like a centre left decade to me.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827
    Dynamo said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reports that the daughter of Alexander Dugin has been assassinated in Moscow.

    https://www.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561098120506769410

    There are very strange things afoot in Russia. (Regardless of whether this particular thing turns out to be true or not).
    Too many peculiar events.
    Is there a possibility there is a rogue FSB anti-Puti n element at large?
    Seems a bit too much for Ukrainian (or other) special forces ?
    Thoughts?
    She's hardly an obvious target. If Ukrainian special forces were to engage in such a risky operation surely they are more likely to target someone else?
    The idea is that the perps were out to get her dad and got her by accident.

    File hitting non-obvious targets under "surprise". Although personally and having not yet read much on this action, I doubt Ukrainian special forces had anything to do with it.
    Given he was quoted in 2014 as saying "Ukrainians need to be killed, killed, killed", he could certainly be seen as a target. But are Ukrainian assassinations really likely?

    A mafia style killing in a mafia state seems more likely to be internal. Perhaps Putin's hold on power is more tenuous than it appears.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Dynamo said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reports that the daughter of Alexander Dugin has been assassinated in Moscow.

    https://www.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561098120506769410

    There are very strange things afoot in Russia. (Regardless of whether this particular thing turns out to be true or not).
    Too many peculiar events.
    Is there a possibility there is a rogue FSB anti-Puti n element at large?
    Seems a bit too much for Ukrainian (or other) special forces ?
    Thoughts?
    She's hardly an obvious target. If Ukrainian special forces were to engage in such a risky operation surely they are more likely to target someone else?
    The idea is that the perps were out to get her dad and got her by accident.

    File hitting non-obvious targets under "surprise". Although personally and having not yet read much on this action, I doubt Ukrainian special forces had anything to do with it.
    Given he was quoted in 2014 as saying "Ukrainians need to be killed, killed, killed", he could certainly be seen as a target. But are Ukrainian assassinations really likely?

    A mafia style killing in a mafia state seems more likely to be internal. Perhaps Putin's hold on power is more tenuous than it appears.
    Dictorships are like tall oak trees: they look strong and sturdy, but when the wind blows, they can fall awful fast.

    Democracies like the UK are like the reeds: they're bent out of shape by the storm and look terribly fragile. But the next morning, they're more likely to be standing.

    Or, to put it another way: people who are afraid of the voters are more likely to be able to react quickly to new information.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Cheer up everyone. I had a “chocolate martini” in the Piazza Della Signoria at 150-year-old Cafe Rivoire


    That sounds revolting.
    To be honest that was my expectation. I don’t even like cocktails. But I was in an effervescent mood - having a very fun time in Florence - so I had a cocktail. This one




    And it was totally YUM. So I thought: why not try the absurd “chocolate martini”? The Cafe Rivoire is famous for its chocolate. And… it was actually quite nice. And very pleasingly decadent

    Not too many tourists, I hope.
    Florence is, as always, OVERRUN with tourists. But it somehow maintains its incredible charm. It is such a timeless, beautiful city, it has seen everything. It will survive the day trippers and it will survive this coming winter

    It survived the Black Death, after all

    Where are you off to next?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,356

    Cyclefree - I hope your daughter recovers quickly and completely, and that, if she needs more treatment, that she gets it, promptly. Sounds like a tough situation for her, and your family.

    Thank you.

    I worry for all three. It eats away at me, to be honest. I try to do what I can, to have their back etc. but I feel so helpless and the situation for them and their future seems hopeless, really, atm.

    I would like to see them all settled in some fashion. Whereas it just feels as if they are constantly rolling a ball up a hill.

    Goodnight.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,356
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Firenze this morning. Trillions of tourists at 8am. But, still, look at it




    I always found Florence a bit of a disappointment compared to Venice and Rome.

    Better than Naples though.
    No. Naples is magnificent.

    The piazza in front of the Royal Palace - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/case-studies/ - glorious!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited August 2022
    Just seen the video of Liz Truss praising GB News over the BBC. It was an interview on GB News with Alastair Stewart.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571

    If the Tories are out, it's for a while IMHO.

    10 years of Labour Government seems likely, this feels like a centre left decade to me.

    Hmmmm... not sure about that. This decade will be grim. The next election isn't 1997 it's 1974.

    LOTO leader Kemi will be the stuff of nightmares for SKS as well IMO but as ever time will tell.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,233
    edited August 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    If the Tories are out, it's for a while IMHO.

    10 years of Labour Government seems likely, this feels like a centre left decade to me.

    Hmmmm... not sure about that. This decade will be grim. The next election isn't 1997 it's 1974.

    LOTO leader Kemi will be the stuff of nightmares for SKS as well IMO but as ever time will tell.
    The next year or two will be grim thanks to Putin's insanity, but once Putin falls it'll be a whole different ballgame.

    Inflation was going to be an issue anyway post COVID as the global economy was straining it's sinews as it recovered from the aftermath of shutdowns. Especially given American fracking etc had shut down cutting energy production.

    But Putin's insanity has put the global economy onto hyperdrive tapping what resources it can. Yes there's a shortage now, but not indefinitely.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Just seen the video of Liz Truss praising GB News over the BBC. It was an interview on GB News with Alastair Stewart.

    The interview was the tail end of the Conservatives' Manchester hustings on Friday night.
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris at least enjoying himself, sunbathing topless on a boat near a Greek island with Carrie

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19569386/boris-johnson-carrie-greece-topless/

    Why? You'd have thought Boris would want to spend his last weeks in office either at Downing Street or more likely on a staycation at Chequers. Greece will still be there after 6th September.
  • Betfair next prime minister
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    14 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    12.5 Rishi Sunak 8%
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,526

    Dynamo said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reports that the daughter of Alexander Dugin has been assassinated in Moscow.

    https://www.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561098120506769410

    There are very strange things afoot in Russia. (Regardless of whether this particular thing turns out to be true or not).
    Too many peculiar events.
    Is there a possibility there is a rogue FSB anti-Puti n element at large?
    Seems a bit too much for Ukrainian (or other) special forces ?
    Thoughts?
    She's hardly an obvious target. If Ukrainian special forces were to engage in such a risky operation surely they are more likely to target someone else?
    The idea is that the perps were out to get her dad and got her by accident.

    File hitting non-obvious targets under "surprise". Although personally and having not yet read much on this action, I doubt Ukrainian special forces had anything to do with it.
    Given he was quoted in 2014 as saying "Ukrainians need to be killed, killed, killed", he could certainly be seen as a target. But are Ukrainian assassinations really likely?

    A mafia style killing in a mafia state seems more likely to be internal. Perhaps Putin's hold on power is more tenuous than it appears.
    The creepy and repellent Dugin and his daughter have expressed full-on fascist views for years. However, there is a clear warning to Putin personally if this is an assassination. If it is an internal job, it is unlikely to be the last.
  • Kwasi Kwarteng to rein in green profits as energy price cap set to soar to £6,000
    Business Secretary wants firms to stop selling cheap renewables at high wholesale prices, as inflation squeezes household budgets

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/20/kwasi-kwarteng-rein-green-profits-energy-price-cap-set-soar/ (£££)
  • Universities push for ‘vital’ tuition fee rise
    UK students must pay closer to £24,000 a year or lose their places to foreigners, argue bosses

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/universities-push-for-vital-tuition-fee-rise-pcvgfgvrt (£££)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    For Leon. Florida Governor Ron De Santis 'We must fight the Woke in our schools. We must fight the Woke in our businesses. We must fight the Woke in out government agencies. We must never, ever surrender to Woke ideology. Florida is the state Woke comes to die.'

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1561043132614995968?s=20&t=g1LL7LyfLpxKR5ww5ht5Xw

    I really hope De Santis wins the GOP Nom. That would save us from the horror of Trump 2.0 and he’d thrash the Dems
    So why are you in Florence ?

    Have you ever seen Brian Sewell's Grand Tour series:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88hACXWd58A

    If you've got a spare six months you could do an updated version.
    I’ve brought one of my kids on hols to try and impress upon her the importance of the Renaissance. Not sure she’s that into the frescos but she’s enjoying the gelati and we’re having a blast so 👍👍

    Buona notte, PB
    Treat yourselves to lunch in La Loggia at the Villa San Michele in Fiesoli. A stunning view over Florence.

    https://www.belmond.com/hotels/europe/italy/florence/belmond-villa-san-michele/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Cyclefree said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Firenze this morning. Trillions of tourists at 8am. But, still, look at it




    I always found Florence a bit of a disappointment compared to Venice and Rome.

    Better than Naples though.
    No. Naples is magnificent.

    The piazza in front of the Royal Palace - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/case-studies/ - glorious!
    Never been to Naples. Rome is the furthest south I've been I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    If the Tories are out, it's for a while IMHO.

    10 years of Labour Government seems likely, this feels like a centre left decade to me.

    True. It's unusual for a party to lose office and get back in at the next election. 1974 was an exception.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Cheer up everyone. I had a “chocolate martini” in the Piazza Della Signoria at 150-year-old Cafe Rivoire


    That sounds revolting.
    To be honest that was my expectation. I don’t even like cocktails. But I was in an effervescent mood - having a very fun time in Florence - so I had a cocktail. This one




    And it was totally YUM. So I thought: why not try the absurd “chocolate martini”? The Cafe Rivoire is famous for its chocolate. And… it was actually quite nice. And very pleasingly decadent

    Anyone who posts "yum" or " yummy" on an internet blog should be in the first cohort against the wall in La Truss's revolution.
    After they have been disposed of, they should be mummified. Then they would be Yummy Mummies.
  • New thread.
This discussion has been closed.