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Today’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face – politicalbetting.com
Today’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face – politicalbetting.com
Perhaps the most worrying for the Tories is the Mail on the NHS and its question on the linkage to the tax hike. If that is the start of a campaign it could cause real political damage.
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1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
China has overtaken America and Germany to have the most influential scientists in the world in terms of the number and reach of published scientific studies, a Japanese analysis has suggested.
The report by Tokyo’s science and technology ministry found that Chinese research papers accounted for more than a quarter (27.2 per cent) of the top 1 per cent most cited papers between 2018 and 2020.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-more-influential-than-rivals-in-america-and-germany-8sckt5685 (£££)
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/modern-war-institute/id1079958510?i=1000575748646
https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-far-right-extremism-and-the-war-in-ukraine-since-2014/
The cognitive dissonance must have been painful!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62513966
Truss really is the unacceptable face of libertarian conservatism.
She has the zeal of a convert. Uncritically adopting the most extreme ideological positions.
It’s deeply Un-British.
These profits aren’t being earned by some technological breakthrough. Or a genuine leap forward in productivity. Or developing an exciting new market for their product.
They’re striking gold from owning the rights to extract a national asset at a time of a geopolitical crisis, while the high price of the energy they’re extracting is threatening to impoverish huge swathes of Britain.
Actually, that’s wrong. If it were gold, there would be far less of a problem. It’s energy. A requirement for the economy to function and the vulnerable and the elderly poor not to die.
The huge profits that these energy extractors are making are, perhaps not, as she represents it, “evil,” but it certainly offends most peoples sense of fair play. Taxing their unearned excess profits ain’t communism. It’s common sense.
I do admire her willingness to die on a particularly unpopular hill, though.
She’s “brave” that gal. As “yes, minister” would say…
The demands from the Left for windfall taxes on oil companies is just because they dislike oil companies & want to financially hurt these companies & high oil prices provide a convenient excuse for justifying these taxes.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
Meanwhile, the conservative US commentator Allahpundit is starting to freak out about Democrat's relative overperformance in special elections for the Congress:
https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/08/11/bellwether-dems-overperformed-in-another-special-election-this-week-n489074
Works best with FPTP seat band bets in a heavily traded market, with volatile opinion polling.
It’s generally less effective in vote % markets, although given the difficulties accurately polling Tory members, i wouldn’t be surprised if the actual result was somewhat surprising.
You’re making a reasonable bet, I recon.
I’m on;
Truss %
Below 60 -££
60.01-65 +-0
65.01-70 +£££££
70.01+ +££££££££££££££££
And is the policy not broadly tax energy extractors and subsidise energy distributors to push effective prices back towards pre 2022 levels?
Atrocious night's sleep. This is clearly the fault of the Soup Dragon.
The dirty secret is that where measured by profit contribution, the likes of bp and Shell are these days trading houses in the style of Vitol / Trafi, with a global oil and gas business bolted on the side.
The large profits announced are less the result of high prices of crude, gas and refined products, but are largely a consequence of the recent VOLATILITY of energy prices that benefit integrated global trading platforms. Perhaps others can comment if the same is true for the likes of Eon.
By the way the media conveniently neglect to include the billions of pounds write downs on Russian assets sustained by Shell and bp in support of British foreign policy, which mean both will likely make a net loss this year.
So what was Sunak’s windfall tax? Well it was outrageously thick because it didn’t touch the sides of these very high headline profits by the big groups, given that most of their headline profit is from trading rather production. What it did do was remove a third of the equity value of the junior North Sea producers. Self same producers that we all rely upon to squeeze the last drops out of fields that would otherwise be abandoned, at a loss not just to the Exchequer but also our energy security.
These same junior producers are facing unprecedented headwinds as it is. A combination of the green lobby’s penetration of the banking sector and capital markets, and fed rate rises, mean it’s suddenly very difficult indeed for them to raise loan finance and the bond market is essentially shut to them for now. And then Sunak slams the door on equity finance for them too. Expensive and privileged education and city career and a Bloomberg terminal on his desk, and the man has not learnt a thing. Honestly I’m amazed anyone that calls themselves a Tory has voted for him.
So roll on Liz Truss with her pledge not to hit this sector again, because she realises that to go from a hydrocarbon economy to a fully renewables one is going to entail a messy transition period and the public sector is going to have to work imaginatively and off doctrine to smooth the path. Most here are underestimating Truss and I really struggle to see why, I become more optimistic by the day.
Truss will win but I've sold her between 60-70% and make a modest profit if she's >70% or between 50-60%.
Right now, I'd say she's heading for 57-59% (+/-5%) or similar.
What matters is the quality of the research and who is doing the citing. How influential globally is what Chinese scientists are doing? If they are just referencing each other, it could well be much lower than the raw numbers suggest.
That’s not to say that China is not becoming a science and R&D superpower, it clearly is advancing rapidly. But there is no inevitability about it coming to dominate. A country that restricts its citizens access to knowledge, thought and argument - which institutionally punishes the questioning of authority - will always be fighting with one hand tied behind its back in a number of areas.
What China will undoubtedly be brilliant at - already is, in fact - is incremental innovation and invention. Whether it can consistently produce the disruptive, gamechanging stuff is very much open to question.
Yesterday evening, BBC Weather was forecasting at least three rainy days in the next fortnight for Sidmouth. This morning, we’re back to bone dry sunshine for as far as the eye can see. What has changed in the last 12 hours?
It feels like it is never going to rain again. What if this is it? The start of a new, much drier, status quo? One day there was no beginning of the Ice Age, the next day there was. Why not the same now with permanent drought? One thing is sure. If it’s happening, we’re done for.
Bad sleep last night!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/11/globe-theatre-makes-joan-arc-non-binary-new-play/
LIZ Truss is set to strengthen the Union by hastening the Tories’ downfall and letting Labour into power, Alex Cole-Hamilton has said.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20623063.liz-truss-fastest-route-keeping-scotland-uk-says-alex-cole-hamilton/
The best example of this is Pearl GTL in Qatar. They entered into a massive gas purchase agreement with the government to buy gas on a massive scale, and where they sew together the CH4 molecules to make super pure diesel.
It is perhaps the world's most expensive chemical plant, dependent on six massive Linde air separators (each the size of three football fields) propped up two hundred feet above the ground.
Nobody else could build that.
They didn't find the gas. They don't extract it. But they have the financial and engineering capacity to commit $40bn to turn gas into oil, so that the government of Qatar can diversify their energy exposure.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/anne-heche-blood-tests-show-signs-of-narcotics-as-actress-is-not-expected-to-survive-crash-12670937
However, a very interesting read. She’s either going to be a stunning success (which I would define as any Con Maj north of 1, or even Con Min of 0-5), or a stunning failure (we could be looking at a Canada-scenario here).
Mediocrity is not to be expected. Which in itself is a stunning development for a Lib Dem.
Cross dressing and gender confusion was a common feature of Shakespears plays, with female characters often dressed as men and pretending to be men, though all female characters were played by men in the first place. A strong feature of pantomime too.
Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.
The Office for National Statistics said two bank holidays to celebrate the Queen’s jubilee contributed to a 0.6% fall in output in June alone.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It is possible to be dispassionate, and interpret data without caring as to the people involved. We see it sometimes here, and I certainly see it at work.
The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer
There’s also:
1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund
In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.
My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?
As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.
Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?
We found out about Chernobyl because of Western radiation monitoring, and in the aftermath of that disaster the amount of monitoring increased substantially.
She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
If you do some digging around you will find their accuracy is about 80/85% which sounds ok until you realise that if you or I guessed the weather daily using common sense and the windows in our house we'd probably be right about 70/75% of the time.
Is the extra ten percent or so worth all the expense and science that goes into forecasting? For some, yes, and it's a difficult area well worth investigating, but some honesty from the forecasters is long overdue.
The prime minister is fighting to save his seat by arguing for a lenient punishment that would avoid a recall petition. A petition could result in his leaving the Commons only weeks after being pushed out of Downing Street.
Some of Johnson’s senior team have all but given up hope of escaping censure after the committee of MPs who will decide his fate concluded that he did not have to have knowingly misled the Commons to be found in contempt.
Allies of the prime minister have attempted to argue that this means the process is “rigged”, with loyalists such as Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, condemning the investigation as a “witch-hunt”.
The committee hit back yesterday, criticising attempts to “undermine” and “subvert” the process and “intimidate” members. Harriet Harman, the Labour MP who is chairing the committee during the inquiry, and the Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin wrote in The Times Red Box: “There have been unfounded allegations about ‘goalposts being moved’ and ‘rules changed’. But this is inaccurate.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-calls-in-lawyers-over-looming-partygate-punishment-jrrm0hlpf
I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#6/49.289/29.575/gamma
Assuming this is accurate and not a Russian scam, we’ll know very quickly if there’s any problem at Zaporizhzhia.
And?
When Chernobyl went boom on 26th April 1986. The west first knew about it in the 28th April, via radioactive particles on nuclear workers' clothes in Sweden. The world's attention was not focussed on Chernobyl at the time, and it is focussed on Ukraine and the reactors. Monitoring tech has also improved.
I have no doubt that if there was a radioactive release from any of their reactors, it would be detected rapidly.
Then there's the question of how long it takes to get into the foodchain. Milk might be the quickest: cows eat contaminated grass, and it gets into the milk. Perhaps two to three days - but levels would probably be very low. As for meat; the animal needs to eat the food, be slaughtered, and the meat consumed. Weeks or months. As for fruit; again, months.
This sort of scaremongering will cause more harm than good.
Well, it's a view.
But as usual, he's talking complete bullshit. We would know within about two hours at the outside if Russia blows up a nuclear plant, which is before any significant fallout could make itself felt.
And fruit is mostly harvested earlier anyway so would be unaffected.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html
And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.
Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/
Rather a disconnect from reality.
From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
Perhaps the Daily Mail needs to consider the 100 000 vacant posts in the NHS. Until those are filled, the money from the NI surcharge cannot be spent efficiently.
I saw these figures on Foundation doctors applying for specialist/GP training the other day. Retention is becoming a massive problem.
How mild the winter is will be critical this year.
She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
If you’re an army, a pilot, a seaman, or a farmer, on the other hand, weather forecasts and regular weather observations are really important to your daily life.
An airport, for example, produces a 30-hour forecast every three hours, and publishes live weather reports (temperature, wind speed and direction, visibility, clouds) every 10 minutes or so - and often more frequently when the weather is bad.
Doesn't look too encouraging on the very long range at the moment, but then, we all know how accurate they are.
It would appear from the forecast that when we do get rain it will be quite heavy. Not what we need!
And yet here we are, with Bezza pushing the PM towards the political gallows. Their encounter at his committee the day before Bonzo finally accepted the game was up was top drawer entertainment. He will not let morons like Dorries distract and deflect people from the work that needs to be done.
I does not matter that he will soon cease to be PM - he was hounded from the office. We cannot let lie the principle that senior ministers can lie and lie and lie and its ok. Sir Bernard knows this.
I should know!
Do I have that right ?
Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
(It’s also why I really dislike the way ‘parties’ were reported in the press. The gross exaggeration of what actually took place, has been detrimental to societal cohesion).
Is it possible to legislate to prevent this from happening, or would it require replacing the meters themselves?
You have no idea the anger in this country that moments after telling us not to go out and meet our friends and loved ones the PM and his staff were getting suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed.
Having watched a couple of guys fit out smart meter recently (one training the other) that looks like quite a skilled job to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Submarines
RR recently announced they are starting a nuclear skills training academy in Derby.
https://www.derby.gov.uk/news/2022/may/ihub-rolls-royce-nuclear-skills-academy/
And why she isn't wrong:
"Construction work begins on new submarine reactor core facilities at Rolls-Royce in Derby" (from 2013)
https://www.nuclearinfo.org/sites/rolls-royce-raynesway/
The vast majority of our sub nuclear reactor work is done in Derby. The small reactors will also be designed and manufactured in Derby.
This is why we need to agree up front that they won't be paid. The energy companies will make a loss this winter. Making a loss for a period is business, isn't it?
Anyone who has signed Lord Cruddas' ludicrous petition should not be allowed to vote on anything, anywhere.
I think it is more likely that people just cancel their direct debits but continue to pay as much as they can each month.
The event in question was a few dozen staffers sitting outside in the garden at their workplace for an hour, with the boss turning up to thank them for their extraordinary efforts in dealing with a national emergency.
Describing it as “…suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed” is part of the problem, and why the public reaction was as it was.
I appreciate it's not really like that, but still.
18 November 2015 – UK becomes first major country to announce coal phase-out
UK Energy Secretary Amber Rudd announced that the UK would close all its coal-fired power plants by 2025, with proposals to replace coal power generation with gas and nuclear plants. The announcement came less than two weeks before the start of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which negotiated the Paris Agreement.
LOL
I have a friend who is signed up to a 100% renewable electricity tariff and simply cannot get her head around the fact the price will go up. When did the price of wind go up? Isn't it getting cheaper all the time?
There is really limited understanding of how these markets work (I include myself) and that is part of the problem here. That "nationalise the retailers for £2 billion and get fuel costs back to normal" thing has got real currency, despite it being nonsense.
Again you miss the hypocrisy angle, my father has several colleagues and friends who worked for the NHS during the pandemic, on Christmas Day 2020 they planned to have a Christmas meal at the hospital they were working in during their lunch.
They were told they couldn't and they realised it would look bad.
So don't give me the bullshit about 'extraordinary efforts in dealing with a national emergency', if Doctors and nurses weren't allowed to do it, then neither should Downing Street staff.
A really good government manage to make the feels and the reality good, but it's a while since we've had one of those.