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Today’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2022 in General
imageToday’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face – politicalbetting.com

Perhaps the most worrying for the Tories is the Mail on the NHS and its question on the linkage to the tax hike. If that is the start of a campaign it could cause real political damage.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • Betfair next prime minister
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.11 Liz Truss 90%
    9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
  • Chinese scientists more influential than rivals in America and Germany

    China has overtaken America and Germany to have the most influential scientists in the world in terms of the number and reach of published scientific studies, a Japanese analysis has suggested.

    The report by Tokyo’s science and technology ministry found that Chinese research papers accounted for more than a quarter (27.2 per cent) of the top 1 per cent most cited papers between 2018 and 2020.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-more-influential-than-rivals-in-america-and-germany-8sckt5685 (£££)
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Interesting and nuanced academic discussion on the European/Russian far right in respect of Ukraine. Decent coverage of the Azov battalion;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/modern-war-institute/id1079958510?i=1000575748646

    https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-far-right-extremism-and-the-war-in-ukraine-since-2014/
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited August 2022
    ping said:

    Interesting and nuanced academic discussion on the European/Russian far right in respect of Ukraine. Decent coverage of the Azov battalion;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/modern-war-institute/id1079958510?i=1000575748646

    https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-far-right-extremism-and-the-war-in-ukraine-since-2014/

    Among other aspects, they discuss the amusing about-turn by most of the European far right - from looking up to Putin as a true conservative leader - to him becoming enemy #1 for true patriots.

    The cognitive dissonance must have been painful!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    ping said:



    I do admire her willingness to die on a particularly unpopular hill, though.

    Let's just hope she takes the whole party with her.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    If we're going to do these windfall profits taxes when a company's product becomes popular then we should also have winrise subsidies where the taxpayer forks out for investments that didn't go as well as they hoped.
  • vikvik Posts: 157

    If we're going to do these windfall profits taxes when a company's product becomes popular then we should also have winrise subsidies where the taxpayer forks out for investments that didn't go as well as they hoped.

    To be fair, governments do provide direct & indirect subsidies to some industries (e.g. to electric car manufacturers) when they think that it'll be politically popular.

    The demands from the Left for windfall taxes on oil companies is just because they dislike oil companies & want to financially hurt these companies & high oil prices provide a convenient excuse for justifying these taxes.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    The FOX News poll now also recording a movement towards the Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The new poll shows a Tie, versus the June & July polls which showed Republicans 3 points ahead.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    Meanwhile, the conservative US commentator Allahpundit is starting to freak out about Democrat's relative overperformance in special elections for the Congress:

    https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/08/11/bellwether-dems-overperformed-in-another-special-election-this-week-n489074
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    FPT

    Good evening

    Sunak seems to be winning the hustings and on balance I would prefer him, but if it is Truss the emergency budget on the 21st September will need to be very much more supportive than she seems to be revealing at present but maybe she will surprise once elected, because if she does not support the populace at this time the conservative party will be in opposition in 2024

    I was pleased to hear her backing for tidal energy, but on the hustings generally once you have listened to one they become quite tedious

    Anyway just over 3 weeks to a new PM and cabinet for better or worse

    FWIW, my gut says this will be closer than predicted. Sunak is doing a hell of a lot of members meetings out in the sticks rather than just media and hustings.
    I've gotten sufficiently worried about this, to convert my Truss vote % bet into a horseshoe bet, where I'll collect around $200 if she either gets below 55% or gets more than 70%, but I'll lose $40 if she gets something between 55% & 70%.
  • If we're going to do these windfall profits taxes when a company's product becomes popular then we should also have winrise subsidies where the taxpayer forks out for investments that didn't go as well as they hoped.

    Rishi plans additional corporation tax allowances for investment and r&d.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited August 2022
    vik said:

    FPT

    Good evening

    Sunak seems to be winning the hustings and on balance I would prefer him, but if it is Truss the emergency budget on the 21st September will need to be very much more supportive than she seems to be revealing at present but maybe she will surprise once elected, because if she does not support the populace at this time the conservative party will be in opposition in 2024

    I was pleased to hear her backing for tidal energy, but on the hustings generally once you have listened to one they become quite tedious

    Anyway just over 3 weeks to a new PM and cabinet for better or worse

    FWIW, my gut says this will be closer than predicted. Sunak is doing a hell of a lot of members meetings out in the sticks rather than just media and hustings.
    I've gotten sufficiently worried about this, to convert my Truss vote % bet into a horseshoe bet, where I'll collect around $200 if she either gets below 55% or gets more than 70%, but I'll lose $40 if she gets something between 55% & 70%.

    Laying the centre of the distribution is one of my favourite political betting strategies.

    Works best with FPTP seat band bets in a heavily traded market, with volatile opinion polling.

    It’s generally less effective in vote % markets, although given the difficulties accurately polling Tory members, i wouldn’t be surprised if the actual result was somewhat surprising.

    You’re making a reasonable bet, I recon.

    I’m on;

    Truss %

    Below 60 -££
    60.01-65 +-0
    65.01-70 +£££££
    70.01+ +££££££££££££££££
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,449
    edited August 2022

    If we're going to do these windfall profits taxes when a company's product becomes popular then we should also have winrise subsidies where the taxpayer forks out for investments that didn't go as well as they hoped.

    Like banks?

    And is the policy not broadly tax energy extractors and subsidise energy distributors to push effective prices back towards pre 2022 levels?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Atrocious night's sleep. This is clearly the fault of the Soup Dragon.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    On windfall taxes.

    The dirty secret is that where measured by profit contribution, the likes of bp and Shell are these days trading houses in the style of Vitol / Trafi, with a global oil and gas business bolted on the side.

    The large profits announced are less the result of high prices of crude, gas and refined products, but are largely a consequence of the recent VOLATILITY of energy prices that benefit integrated global trading platforms. Perhaps others can comment if the same is true for the likes of Eon.

    By the way the media conveniently neglect to include the billions of pounds write downs on Russian assets sustained by Shell and bp in support of British foreign policy, which mean both will likely make a net loss this year.

    So what was Sunak’s windfall tax? Well it was outrageously thick because it didn’t touch the sides of these very high headline profits by the big groups, given that most of their headline profit is from trading rather production. What it did do was remove a third of the equity value of the junior North Sea producers. Self same producers that we all rely upon to squeeze the last drops out of fields that would otherwise be abandoned, at a loss not just to the Exchequer but also our energy security.

    These same junior producers are facing unprecedented headwinds as it is. A combination of the green lobby’s penetration of the banking sector and capital markets, and fed rate rises, mean it’s suddenly very difficult indeed for them to raise loan finance and the bond market is essentially shut to them for now. And then Sunak slams the door on equity finance for them too. Expensive and privileged education and city career and a Bloomberg terminal on his desk, and the man has not learnt a thing. Honestly I’m amazed anyone that calls themselves a Tory has voted for him.

    So roll on Liz Truss with her pledge not to hit this sector again, because she realises that to go from a hydrocarbon economy to a fully renewables one is going to entail a messy transition period and the public sector is going to have to work imaginatively and off doctrine to smooth the path. Most here are underestimating Truss and I really struggle to see why, I become more optimistic by the day.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    vik said:

    FPT

    Good evening

    Sunak seems to be winning the hustings and on balance I would prefer him, but if it is Truss the emergency budget on the 21st September will need to be very much more supportive than she seems to be revealing at present but maybe she will surprise once elected, because if she does not support the populace at this time the conservative party will be in opposition in 2024

    I was pleased to hear her backing for tidal energy, but on the hustings generally once you have listened to one they become quite tedious

    Anyway just over 3 weeks to a new PM and cabinet for better or worse

    FWIW, my gut says this will be closer than predicted. Sunak is doing a hell of a lot of members meetings out in the sticks rather than just media and hustings.
    I've gotten sufficiently worried about this, to convert my Truss vote % bet into a horseshoe bet, where I'll collect around $200 if she either gets below 55% or gets more than 70%, but I'll lose $40 if she gets something between 55% & 70%.
    I've done a similar horseshoe.

    Truss will win but I've sold her between 60-70% and make a modest profit if she's >70% or between 50-60%.

    Right now, I'd say she's heading for 57-59% (+/-5%) or similar.
  • Chinese scientists more influential than rivals in America and Germany

    China has overtaken America and Germany to have the most influential scientists in the world in terms of the number and reach of published scientific studies, a Japanese analysis has suggested.

    The report by Tokyo’s science and technology ministry found that Chinese research papers accounted for more than a quarter (27.2 per cent) of the top 1 per cent most cited papers between 2018 and 2020.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-more-influential-than-rivals-in-america-and-germany-8sckt5685 (£££)

    That means very little in and of itself, though. It’s like the Chinese get more patents than anyone else - by far. But they are largely of desperately poor quality and are all about hitting government-created targets.

    What matters is the quality of the research and who is doing the citing. How influential globally is what Chinese scientists are doing? If they are just referencing each other, it could well be much lower than the raw numbers suggest.

    That’s not to say that China is not becoming a science and R&D superpower, it clearly is advancing rapidly. But there is no inevitability about it coming to dominate. A country that restricts its citizens access to knowledge, thought and argument - which institutionally punishes the questioning of authority - will always be fighting with one hand tied behind its back in a number of areas.

    What China will undoubtedly be brilliant at - already is, in fact - is incremental innovation and invention. Whether it can consistently produce the disruptive, gamechanging stuff is very much open to question.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    ping said:

    “Liz Truss defends energy firms saying profit is not evil”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62513966

    Truss really is the unacceptable face of libertarian conservatism.

    She has the zeal of a convert. Uncritically adopting the most extreme ideological positions.

    It’s deeply Un-British.

    These profits aren’t being earned by some technological breakthrough. Or a genuine leap forward in productivity. Or developing an exciting new market for their product.

    They’re striking gold from owning the rights to extract a national asset at a time of a geopolitical crisis, while the high price of the energy they’re extracting is threatening to impoverish huge swathes of Britain.

    Actually, that’s wrong. If it were gold, there would be far less of a problem. It’s energy. A requirement for the economy to function and the vulnerable and the elderly poor not to die.

    The huge profits that these energy extractors are making are, perhaps not, as she represents it, “evil,” but it certainly offends most peoples sense of fair play. Taxing their unearned excess profits ain’t communism. It’s common sense.

    I do admire her willingness to die on a particularly unpopular hill, though.

    She’s “brave” that gal. As “yes, minister” would say…

    See my post above. You are wrong.
  • I am developing a deep hatred of the Met Office and BBC Weather apps. They continuously forecast rain in a few days time, get me really excited, then as the forecast wet days get closer the symbol changes to bright sunshine. Why do they do this? It’s cruel.

    Yesterday evening, BBC Weather was forecasting at least three rainy days in the next fortnight for Sidmouth. This morning, we’re back to bone dry sunshine for as far as the eye can see. What has changed in the last 12 hours?

    It feels like it is never going to rain again. What if this is it? The start of a new, much drier, status quo? One day there was no beginning of the Ice Age, the next day there was. Why not the same now with permanent drought? One thing is sure. If it’s happening, we’re done for.

    Bad sleep last night!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    The Globe seems to have gone horribly Woke; its plays are basically unwatchable now:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/11/globe-theatre-makes-joan-arc-non-binary-new-play/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Observer, be fair. Who can deny the global trendsetting power of scientists from Wuhan?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    moonshine said:

    On windfall taxes.

    The dirty secret is that where measured by profit contribution, the likes of bp and Shell are these days trading houses in the style of Vitol / Trafi, with a global oil and gas business bolted on the side.

    The large profits announced are less the result of high prices of crude, gas and refined products, but are largely a consequence of the recent VOLATILITY of energy prices that benefit integrated global trading platforms. Perhaps others can comment if the same is true for the likes of Eon.

    By the way the media conveniently neglect to include the billions of pounds write downs on Russian assets sustained by Shell and bp in support of British foreign policy, which mean both will likely make a net loss this year.

    So what was Sunak’s windfall tax? Well it was outrageously thick because it didn’t touch the sides of these very high headline profits by the big groups, given that most of their headline profit is from trading rather production. What it did do was remove a third of the equity value of the junior North Sea producers. Self same producers that we all rely upon to squeeze the last drops out of fields that would otherwise be abandoned, at a loss not just to the Exchequer but also our energy security.

    These same junior producers are facing unprecedented headwinds as it is. A combination of the green lobby’s penetration of the banking sector and capital markets, and fed rate rises, mean it’s suddenly very difficult indeed for them to raise loan finance and the bond market is essentially shut to them for now. And then Sunak slams the door on equity finance for them too. Expensive and privileged education and city career and a Bloomberg terminal on his desk, and the man has not learnt a thing. Honestly I’m amazed anyone that calls themselves a Tory has voted for him.

    So roll on Liz Truss with her pledge not to hit this sector again, because she realises that to go from a hydrocarbon economy to a fully renewables one is going to entail a messy transition period and the public sector is going to have to work imaginatively and off doctrine to smooth the path. Most here are underestimating Truss and I really struggle to see why, I become more optimistic by the day.

    That's not true of E.On.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Truss is 'fastest route to keeping Scotland in UK', says LibDem leader

    LIZ Truss is set to strengthen the Union by hastening the Tories’ downfall and letting Labour into power, Alex Cole-Hamilton has said.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20623063.liz-truss-fastest-route-keeping-scotland-uk-says-alex-cole-hamilton/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    moonshine said:

    On windfall taxes.

    The dirty secret is that where measured by profit contribution, the likes of bp and Shell are these days trading houses in the style of Vitol / Trafi, with a global oil and gas business bolted on the side.

    The large profits announced are less the result of high prices of crude, gas and refined products, but are largely a consequence of the recent VOLATILITY of energy prices that benefit integrated global trading platforms. Perhaps others can comment if the same is true for the likes of Eon.

    By the way the media conveniently neglect to include the billions of pounds write downs on Russian assets sustained by Shell and bp in support of British foreign policy, which mean both will likely make a net loss this year.

    So what was Sunak’s windfall tax? Well it was outrageously thick because it didn’t touch the sides of these very high headline profits by the big groups, given that most of their headline profit is from trading rather production. What it did do was remove a third of the equity value of the junior North Sea producers. Self same producers that we all rely upon to squeeze the last drops out of fields that would otherwise be abandoned, at a loss not just to the Exchequer but also our energy security.

    These same junior producers are facing unprecedented headwinds as it is. A combination of the green lobby’s penetration of the banking sector and capital markets, and fed rate rises, mean it’s suddenly very difficult indeed for them to raise loan finance and the bond market is essentially shut to them for now. And then Sunak slams the door on equity finance for them too. Expensive and privileged education and city career and a Bloomberg terminal on his desk, and the man has not learnt a thing. Honestly I’m amazed anyone that calls themselves a Tory has voted for him.

    So roll on Liz Truss with her pledge not to hit this sector again, because she realises that to go from a hydrocarbon economy to a fully renewables one is going to entail a messy transition period and the public sector is going to have to work imaginatively and off doctrine to smooth the path. Most here are underestimating Truss and I really struggle to see why, I become more optimistic by the day.

    Also, on the subject of Shell: their "core competence" is massively complex engineering projects that nobody else has the financial wherewithal to attempt.

    The best example of this is Pearl GTL in Qatar. They entered into a massive gas purchase agreement with the government to buy gas on a massive scale, and where they sew together the CH4 molecules to make super pure diesel.

    It is perhaps the world's most expensive chemical plant, dependent on six massive Linde air separators (each the size of three football fields) propped up two hundred feet above the ground.

    Nobody else could build that.

    They didn't find the gas. They don't extract it. But they have the financial and engineering capacity to commit $40bn to turn gas into oil, so that the government of Qatar can diversify their energy exposure.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Trump had stolen documents regarding nuclear weapons?!? Like something out of a disaster movie.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733
    Liz Truss is easy to mock, but she could do more damage than Boris Johnson ever did | Gaby Hinsliff https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/12/liz-truss-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-frontrunner-workaholic?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    On windfall taxes.

    The dirty secret is that where measured by profit contribution, the likes of bp and Shell are these days trading houses in the style of Vitol / Trafi, with a global oil and gas business bolted on the side.

    The large profits announced are less the result of high prices of crude, gas and refined products, but are largely a consequence of the recent VOLATILITY of energy prices that benefit integrated global trading platforms. Perhaps others can comment if the same is true for the likes of Eon.

    By the way the media conveniently neglect to include the billions of pounds write downs on Russian assets sustained by Shell and bp in support of British foreign policy, which mean both will likely make a net loss this year.

    So what was Sunak’s windfall tax? Well it was outrageously thick because it didn’t touch the sides of these very high headline profits by the big groups, given that most of their headline profit is from trading rather production. What it did do was remove a third of the equity value of the junior North Sea producers. Self same producers that we all rely upon to squeeze the last drops out of fields that would otherwise be abandoned, at a loss not just to the Exchequer but also our energy security.

    These same junior producers are facing unprecedented headwinds as it is. A combination of the green lobby’s penetration of the banking sector and capital markets, and fed rate rises, mean it’s suddenly very difficult indeed for them to raise loan finance and the bond market is essentially shut to them for now. And then Sunak slams the door on equity finance for them too. Expensive and privileged education and city career and a Bloomberg terminal on his desk, and the man has not learnt a thing. Honestly I’m amazed anyone that calls themselves a Tory has voted for him.

    So roll on Liz Truss with her pledge not to hit this sector again, because she realises that to go from a hydrocarbon economy to a fully renewables one is going to entail a messy transition period and the public sector is going to have to work imaginatively and off doctrine to smooth the path. Most here are underestimating Truss and I really struggle to see why, I become more optimistic by the day.

    Also, on the subject of Shell: their "core competence" is massively complex engineering projects that nobody else has the financial wherewithal to attempt.

    The best example of this is Pearl GTL in Qatar. They entered into a massive gas purchase agreement with the government to buy gas on a massive scale, and where they sew together the CH4 molecules to make super pure diesel.

    It is perhaps the world's most expensive chemical plant, dependent on six massive Linde air separators (each the size of three football fields) propped up two hundred feet above the ground.


    Nobody else could build that.

    They didn't find the gas. They don't extract it. But they have the financial and engineering capacity to commit $40bn to turn gas into oil, so that the government of Qatar can diversify their energy exposure.
    And of course as part of the wider puzzle, Qatar are the crucial piece of the UK’s LNG supply strategy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss is easy to mock, but she could do more damage than Boris Johnson ever did | Gaby Hinsliff https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/12/liz-truss-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-frontrunner-workaholic?CMP=share_btn_tw

    That article is inconsistent, saying she lacks empathy, but “all while judging the public mood minute by minute”.

    However, a very interesting read. She’s either going to be a stunning success (which I would define as any Con Maj north of 1, or even Con Min of 0-5), or a stunning failure (we could be looking at a Canada-scenario here).

    Mediocrity is not to be expected. Which in itself is a stunning development for a Lib Dem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    edited August 2022

    The Globe seems to have gone horribly Woke; its plays are basically unwatchable now:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/11/globe-theatre-makes-joan-arc-non-binary-new-play/

    Glad to see The Globe back up and running, I thought it had gone bust during Covid. Joan doesn't open until August 25th, so I don't know how anyone can form an opinion on it being unwatchable just yet.

    Cross dressing and gender confusion was a common feature of Shakespears plays, with female characters often dressed as men and pretending to be men, though all female characters were played by men in the first place. A strong feature of pantomime too.
  • Don’t ever fall for the lie that Royal Family are good for the economy.

    Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.

    The Office for National Statistics said two bank holidays to celebrate the Queen’s jubilee contributed to a 0.6% fall in output in June alone.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss is easy to mock, but she could do more damage than Boris Johnson ever did | Gaby Hinsliff https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/12/liz-truss-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-frontrunner-workaholic?CMP=share_btn_tw

    That article is inconsistent, saying she lacks empathy, but “all while judging the public mood minute by minute”.
    I don't think that contradictory. The article depicts her as analytical rather than empathetic.

    It is possible to be dispassionate, and interpret data without caring as to the people involved. We see it sometimes here, and I certainly see it at work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    There’s plenty of radiation monitoring in Eastern Europe, we will know very quickly if there’s been any radioactive release from Ukraine.

    We found out about Chernobyl because of Western radiation monitoring, and in the aftermath of that disaster the amount of monitoring increased substantially.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733
    Unionist parties are on the verge of a return to power at Holyrood as the SNP begins a similar slide towards apathy and infighting that smashed the nationalist movement in Quebec, an international relations expert said https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/referendum-fatigue-could-sunder-snp-like-quebec-nationalists-7dbwvdl0l
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.

  • I am developing a deep hatred of the Met Office and BBC Weather apps. They continuously forecast rain in a few days time, get me really excited, then as the forecast wet days get closer the symbol changes to bright sunshine. Why do they do this? It’s cruel.

    Yesterday evening, BBC Weather was forecasting at least three rainy days in the next fortnight for Sidmouth. This morning, we’re back to bone dry sunshine for as far as the eye can see. What has changed in the last 12 hours?

    It feels like it is never going to rain again. What if this is it? The start of a new, much drier, status quo? One day there was no beginning of the Ice Age, the next day there was. Why not the same now with permanent drought? One thing is sure. If it’s happening, we’re done for.

    Bad sleep last night!

    One would have a lot more respect for weather forecasters if their daily reports mentioned how well they did yesterday. They are like tipsters who don't publish their results.

    If you do some digging around you will find their accuracy is about 80/85% which sounds ok until you realise that if you or I guessed the weather daily using common sense and the windows in our house we'd probably be right about 70/75% of the time.

    Is the extra ten percent or so worth all the expense and science that goes into forecasting? For some, yes, and it's a difficult area well worth investigating, but some honesty from the forecasters is long overdue.
  • Boris Johnson is taking legal advice over a privileges committee investigation as those close to him accept it is a “foregone conclusion” that he will be found in contempt of parliament.

    The prime minister is fighting to save his seat by arguing for a lenient punishment that would avoid a recall petition. A petition could result in his leaving the Commons only weeks after being pushed out of Downing Street.

    Some of Johnson’s senior team have all but given up hope of escaping censure after the committee of MPs who will decide his fate concluded that he did not have to have knowingly misled the Commons to be found in contempt.

    Allies of the prime minister have attempted to argue that this means the process is “rigged”, with loyalists such as Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, condemning the investigation as a “witch-hunt”.

    The committee hit back yesterday, criticising attempts to “undermine” and “subvert” the process and “intimidate” members. Harriet Harman, the Labour MP who is chairing the committee during the inquiry, and the Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin wrote in The Times Red Box: “There have been unfounded allegations about ‘goalposts being moved’ and ‘rules changed’. But this is inaccurate.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-calls-in-lawyers-over-looming-partygate-punishment-jrrm0hlpf
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    There’s plenty of radiation monitoring in Eastern Europe, we will know very quickly if there’s been any radioactive release from Ukraine.

    We found out about Chernobyl because of Western radiation monitoring, and in the aftermath of that disaster the amount of monitoring increased substantially.
    That’s good to hear. I’m rather enjoying the plum season and oat milk doesn’t cut it for me either. You do feel there is something of a grinding inevitability that we see some sort of radiation event before this is over.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Header missed the best front page. Step forward the Metro.


    Quite remarkable for this to be considered newsworthy enough for a front page banner headline, and a sorry comment on our PM’s diligence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    There’s plenty of radiation monitoring in Eastern Europe, we will know very quickly if there’s been any radioactive release from Ukraine.

    We found out about Chernobyl because of Western radiation monitoring, and in the aftermath of that disaster the amount of monitoring increased substantially.
    That’s good to hear. I’m rather enjoying the plum season and oat milk doesn’t cut it for me either. You do feel there is something of a grinding inevitability that we see some sort of radiation event before this is over.
    Have a live map of gamma radiation levels in Ukraine:
    https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#6/49.289/29.575/gamma

    Assuming this is accurate and not a Russian scam, we’ll know very quickly if there’s any problem at Zaporizhzhia.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,123

    Don’t ever fall for the lie that Royal Family are good for the economy.

    Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.

    The Office for National Statistics said two bank holidays to celebrate the Queen’s jubilee contributed to a 0.6% fall in output in June alone.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Only one in Scotland - the other coincided with an existing BH IIRC.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    IMV he's being silly, and will cause more harm (in terms of dietary issues) than it would cause.

    When Chernobyl went boom on 26th April 1986. The west first knew about it in the 28th April, via radioactive particles on nuclear workers' clothes in Sweden. The world's attention was not focussed on Chernobyl at the time, and it is focussed on Ukraine and the reactors. Monitoring tech has also improved.

    I have no doubt that if there was a radioactive release from any of their reactors, it would be detected rapidly.

    Then there's the question of how long it takes to get into the foodchain. Milk might be the quickest: cows eat contaminated grass, and it gets into the milk. Perhaps two to three days - but levels would probably be very low. As for meat; the animal needs to eat the food, be slaughtered, and the meat consumed. Weeks or months. As for fruit; again, months.

    This sort of scaremongering will cause more harm than good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    The John Campbell who promoted Ivermectin as a cure for Covid-19 and claimed many things that were not true about his qualifications and experience is 'not normally one to get swept up in hyperbole?'

    Well, it's a view.

    But as usual, he's talking complete bullshit. We would know within about two hours at the outside if Russia blows up a nuclear plant, which is before any significant fallout could make itself felt.

    And fruit is mostly harvested earlier anyway so would be unaffected.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,123
    edited August 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    I blame her teachers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,123

    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    IMV he's being silly, and will cause more harm (in terms of dietary issues) than it would cause.

    When Chernobyl went boom on 26th April 1986. The west first knew about it in the 28th April, via radioactive particles on nuclear workers' clothes in Sweden. The world's attention was not focussed on Chernobyl at the time, and it is focussed on Ukraine and the reactors. Monitoring tech has also improved.

    I have no doubt that if there was a radioactive release from any of their reactors, it would be detected rapidly.

    Then there's the question of how long it takes to get into the foodchain. Milk might be the quickest: cows eat contaminated grass, and it gets into the milk. Perhaps two to three days - but levels would probably be very low. As for meat; the animal needs to eat the food, be slaughtered, and the meat consumed. Weeks or months. As for fruit; again, months.

    This sort of scaremongering will cause more harm than good.
    It depends on the vagaries of the plume, rainfall, etc - some areas can get much more concentrated fallout than others. But those are, or at least should be, monitored.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited August 2022

    I am developing a deep hatred of the Met Office and BBC Weather apps. They continuously forecast rain in a few days time, get me really excited, then as the forecast wet days get closer the symbol changes to bright sunshine. Why do they do this? It’s cruel.

    Yesterday evening, BBC Weather was forecasting at least three rainy days in the next fortnight for Sidmouth. This morning, we’re back to bone dry sunshine for as far as the eye can see. What has changed in the last 12 hours?

    It feels like it is never going to rain again. What if this is it? The start of a new, much drier, status quo? One day there was no beginning of the Ice Age, the next day there was. Why not the same now with permanent drought? One thing is sure. If it’s happening, we’re done for.

    Bad sleep last night!

    One would have a lot more respect for weather forecasters if their daily reports mentioned how well they did yesterday. They are like tipsters who don't publish their results.

    If you do some digging around you will find their accuracy is about 80/85% which sounds ok until you realise that if you or I guessed the weather daily using common sense and the windows in our house we'd probably be right about 70/75% of the time.

    Is the extra ten percent or so worth all the expense and science that goes into forecasting? For some, yes, and it's a difficult area well worth investigating, but some honesty from the forecasters is long overdue.

    I totally agree - but isn't it an extra 10 percentage points, not an extra 10%? I am not in a good mood!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    IanB2 said:

    Header missed the best front page. Step forward the Metro.


    Quite remarkable for this to be considered newsworthy enough for a front page banner headline, and a sorry comment on our PM’s diligence.
    Tongue in cheek I think for the Metro.

    Perhaps the Daily Mail needs to consider the 100 000 vacant posts in the NHS. Until those are filled, the money from the NI surcharge cannot be spent efficiently.

    I saw these figures on Foundation doctors applying for specialist/GP training the other day. Retention is becoming a massive problem.




  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    The John Campbell who promoted Ivermectin as a cure for Covid-19 and claimed many things that were not true about his qualifications and experience is 'not normally one to get swept up in hyperbole?'

    Well, it's a view.

    But as usual, he's talking complete bullshit. We would know within about two hours at the outside if Russia blows up a nuclear plant, which is before any significant fallout could make itself felt.

    And fruit is mostly harvested earlier anyway so would be unaffected.
    Good to hear he’s off base on this one. He was it should be said, early in recognising that omicron was a net benefit, when most here were wetting the bed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, a problem with the one room heating approach is that if temperatures fall below zero it's essential to avoid burst pipes.

    How mild the winter is will be critical this year.
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
    Just because she said "here in Derbyshire" it doesn't necessarily mean the "here" referred to Derbyshire. "Here" could be the UK, "in Derbyshire" narrowing it down

    She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    IMV he's being silly, and will cause more harm (in terms of dietary issues) than it would cause.

    When Chernobyl went boom on 26th April 1986. The west first knew about it in the 28th April, via radioactive particles on nuclear workers' clothes in Sweden. The world's attention was not focussed on Chernobyl at the time, and it is focussed on Ukraine and the reactors. Monitoring tech has also improved.

    I have no doubt that if there was a radioactive release from any of their reactors, it would be detected rapidly.

    Then there's the question of how long it takes to get into the foodchain. Milk might be the quickest: cows eat contaminated grass, and it gets into the milk. Perhaps two to three days - but levels would probably be very low. As for meat; the animal needs to eat the food, be slaughtered, and the meat consumed. Weeks or months. As for fruit; again, months.

    This sort of scaremongering will cause more harm than good.
    It depends on the vagaries of the plume, rainfall, etc - some areas can get much more concentrated fallout than others. But those are, or at least should be, monitored.
    AIU they are, by far more means than they were in 1986. But my point is that there is a time lag for the contamination to enter the food chain. Not eating healthy foods *now* is stupid IMO.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
    Just because she said "here in Derbyshire" it doesn't necessarily mean the "here" referred to Derbyshire. "Here" could be the UK, "in Derbyshire" narrowing it down

    She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
    I can't help but feel she would have saved herself a lot of confusion if she'd said either 'in Derbyshire' or 'here in Britain.'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    Boris Johnson is taking legal advice over a privileges committee investigation as those close to him accept it is a “foregone conclusion” that he will be found in contempt of parliament.

    The prime minister is fighting to save his seat by arguing for a lenient punishment that would avoid a recall petition. A petition could result in his leaving the Commons only weeks after being pushed out of Downing Street.

    Some of Johnson’s senior team have all but given up hope of escaping censure after the committee of MPs who will decide his fate concluded that he did not have to have knowingly misled the Commons to be found in contempt.

    Allies of the prime minister have attempted to argue that this means the process is “rigged”, with loyalists such as Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, condemning the investigation as a “witch-hunt”.

    The committee hit back yesterday, criticising attempts to “undermine” and “subvert” the process and “intimidate” members. Harriet Harman, the Labour MP who is chairing the committee during the inquiry, and the Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin wrote in The Times Red Box: “There have been unfounded allegations about ‘goalposts being moved’ and ‘rules changed’. But this is inaccurate.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-calls-in-lawyers-over-looming-partygate-punishment-jrrm0hlpf

    This is one of the reasons that I think that Boris will be out of Parliament within days of his successor taking office. There is nothing for him there now but humiliation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    I am developing a deep hatred of the Met Office and BBC Weather apps. They continuously forecast rain in a few days time, get me really excited, then as the forecast wet days get closer the symbol changes to bright sunshine. Why do they do this? It’s cruel.

    Yesterday evening, BBC Weather was forecasting at least three rainy days in the next fortnight for Sidmouth. This morning, we’re back to bone dry sunshine for as far as the eye can see. What has changed in the last 12 hours?

    It feels like it is never going to rain again. What if this is it? The start of a new, much drier, status quo? One day there was no beginning of the Ice Age, the next day there was. Why not the same now with permanent drought? One thing is sure. If it’s happening, we’re done for.

    Bad sleep last night!

    One would have a lot more respect for weather forecasters if their daily reports mentioned how well they did yesterday. They are like tipsters who don't publish their results.

    If you do some digging around you will find their accuracy is about 80/85% which sounds ok until you realise that if you or I guessed the weather daily using common sense and the windows in our house we'd probably be right about 70/75% of the time.

    Is the extra ten percent or so worth all the expense and science that goes into forecasting? For some, yes, and it's a difficult area well worth investigating, but some honesty from the forecasters is long overdue.
    If you’re an average person going about your business, then the accuracy or otherwise of the weather forecasts probably means little. Perhaps you went out under-dressed occasionally.

    If you’re an army, a pilot, a seaman, or a farmer, on the other hand, weather forecasts and regular weather observations are really important to your daily life.

    An airport, for example, produces a 30-hour forecast every three hours, and publishes live weather reports (temperature, wind speed and direction, visibility, clouds) every 10 minutes or so - and often more frequently when the weather is bad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Mr. Sandpit, a problem with the one room heating approach is that if temperatures fall below zero it's essential to avoid burst pipes.

    How mild the winter is will be critical this year.

    I think my patient was most depressed about the bleakness of her future, which is fairly short, but now going to be devoid of even simple pleasures like getting a newspaper delivered.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited August 2022

    Mr. Sandpit, a problem with the one room heating approach is that if temperatures fall below zero it's essential to avoid burst pipes.

    How mild the winter is will be critical this year.

    We need it to be both mild and wet.

    Doesn't look too encouraging on the very long range at the moment, but then, we all know how accurate they are.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Good morning everyone. Yes, another fine bright one.
    It would appear from the forecast that when we do get rain it will be quite heavy. Not what we need!
  • ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
    Just because she said "here in Derbyshire" it doesn't necessarily mean the "here" referred to Derbyshire. "Here" could be the UK, "in Derbyshire" narrowing it down

    She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
    I can't help but feel she would have saved herself a lot of confusion if she'd said either 'in Derbyshire' or 'here in Britain.'
    I don't think the confusion bothered her, or her Gloucestershire audience. It really isn't a big deal.
  • Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
    Difficult to have a "we're all in this together" mentality after the Downing Street parties and decorating.
  • Boris Johnson is taking legal advice over a privileges committee investigation as those close to him accept it is a “foregone conclusion” that he will be found in contempt of parliament.

    The prime minister is fighting to save his seat by arguing for a lenient punishment that would avoid a recall petition. A petition could result in his leaving the Commons only weeks after being pushed out of Downing Street.

    Some of Johnson’s senior team have all but given up hope of escaping censure after the committee of MPs who will decide his fate concluded that he did not have to have knowingly misled the Commons to be found in contempt.

    Allies of the prime minister have attempted to argue that this means the process is “rigged”, with loyalists such as Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, condemning the investigation as a “witch-hunt”.

    The committee hit back yesterday, criticising attempts to “undermine” and “subvert” the process and “intimidate” members. Harriet Harman, the Labour MP who is chairing the committee during the inquiry, and the Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin wrote in The Times Red Box: “There have been unfounded allegations about ‘goalposts being moved’ and ‘rules changed’. But this is inaccurate.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-calls-in-lawyers-over-looming-partygate-punishment-jrrm0hlpf

    Sir Bernard Jenkin is a rum one. Sounds like an establishment loyalist who you would imagine would help pooh-pooh the truth that everyone including he PM knows he lied to parliament endlessly.

    And yet here we are, with Bezza pushing the PM towards the political gallows. Their encounter at his committee the day before Bonzo finally accepted the game was up was top drawer entertainment. He will not let morons like Dorries distract and deflect people from the work that needs to be done.

    I does not matter that he will soon cease to be PM - he was hounded from the office. We cannot let lie the principle that senior ministers can lie and lie and lie and its ok. Sir Bernard knows this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
    Just because she said "here in Derbyshire" it doesn't necessarily mean the "here" referred to Derbyshire. "Here" could be the UK, "in Derbyshire" narrowing it down

    She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
    I can't help but feel she would have saved herself a lot of confusion if she'd said either 'in Derbyshire' or 'here in Britain.'
    I don't think the confusion bothered her, or her Gloucestershire audience. It really isn't a big deal.
    Oh, believe me, it will bother her Gloucestershire audience. They are very parochial and they love picking holes.

    I should know!
  • moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited August 2022
    One problem with the price setting mechanism for energy in this country is that the most expensive generation method (Currently gas) forms the price for the whole of the market. So even if we got down to say 5% gas use over the year (OK we won't any time soon but hey ho) the price would still be the same even though the generation cost is lower. That doesn't feel right to me, and excludes the benefit of adding additional excellent value wind & solar from the consumer ?

    Do I have that right ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, a problem with the one room heating approach is that if temperatures fall below zero it's essential to avoid burst pipes.

    How mild the winter is will be critical this year.

    Yes, even an empty house should have a thermostat set to 10ºC or so, and the heating timer set to work for an hour a couple of times a day.
  • Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
    Difficult to have a "we're all in this together" mentality after the Downing Street parties and decorating.
    I’m not quite sure how that follows. There will be a different Prime Minister, and we are talking about saving energy, which the government will be trying to do themselves, as much as the rest of us.

    (It’s also why I really dislike the way ‘parties’ were reported in the press. The gross exaggeration of what actually took place, has been detrimental to societal cohesion).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,272
    Loving the Metro's headline: "PM TURNS UP FOR MEETING"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    Those on prepayment meters are another story that isn’t being told. AIUI, it’s very easy to be cut off by default when the credit runs out.

    Is it possible to legislate to prevent this from happening, or would it require replacing the meters themselves?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Sandpit said:


    I’m not quite sure how that follows. There will be a different Prime Minister, and we are talking about saving energy, which the government will be trying to do themselves, as much as the rest of us.

    Well we all saw how that went with Covid.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
    Difficult to have a "we're all in this together" mentality after the Downing Street parties and decorating.
    I’m not quite sure how that follows. There will be a different Prime Minister, and we are talking about saving energy, which the government will be trying to do themselves, as much as the rest of us.

    (It’s also why I really dislike the way ‘parties’ were reported in the press. The gross exaggeration of what actually took place, has been detrimental to societal cohesion).
    More than 126 fines were issued.

    You have no idea the anger in this country that moments after telling us not to go out and meet our friends and loved ones the PM and his staff were getting suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,272

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    If millions do it it would probably be 6 to 8 years, given the supply of meters and, more significantly, fitters.

    Having watched a couple of guys fit out smart meter recently (one training the other) that looks like quite a skilled job to me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    Here as in Derbyshire. It's a direct quotation.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/truss-sunak-conservative-hustings-derbyshire-b2143431.html

    And they aren't in production yet, I believe, either.

    Edit: Not even approved as of a few months ago. Unlikely to be producing power till well after Ms Truss is out of power, in more senses than one.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-expecting-uk-approval-mini-nuclear-reactor-by-mid-2024-2022-04-19/

    Rather a disconnect from reality.
    Just because she said "here in Derbyshire" it doesn't necessarily mean the "here" referred to Derbyshire. "Here" could be the UK, "in Derbyshire" narrowing it down

    She probably did forget where she was, but those three words don't prove it.
    She isn't really wrong. There's a very guarded large section of Rolls Royce off Raynesway (IIRC) where the submarine nuclear reactors are designed, and many components constructed - though AIUI some of the nuclear parts are done at the Vulcan site at Dounreay.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Submarines

    RR recently announced they are starting a nuclear skills training academy in Derby.

    https://www.derby.gov.uk/news/2022/may/ihub-rolls-royce-nuclear-skills-academy/

    And why she isn't wrong:

    "Construction work begins on new submarine reactor core facilities at Rolls-Royce in Derby" (from 2013)

    https://www.nuclearinfo.org/sites/rolls-royce-raynesway/

    The vast majority of our sub nuclear reactor work is done in Derby. The small reactors will also be designed and manufactured in Derby.
  • Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    Those on prepayment meters are another story that isn’t being told. AIUI, it’s very easy to be cut off by default when the credit runs out.

    Is it possible to legislate to prevent this from happening, or would it require replacing the meters themselves?
    Well there are protections built in to look after the vulnerable.
  • Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    Supposedly it takes months. In which time the impoverished bill payer is being harassed by growing red bills and then likely debt collection letters and threats of summonses. For money they don't have for bills that are grotesque and can't be paid even with a court order.

    This is why we need to agree up front that they won't be paid. The energy companies will make a loss this winter. Making a loss for a period is business, isn't it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
    Difficult to have a "we're all in this together" mentality after the Downing Street parties and decorating.
    I’m not quite sure how that follows. There will be a different Prime Minister, and we are talking about saving energy, which the government will be trying to do themselves, as much as the rest of us.

    (It’s also why I really dislike the way ‘parties’ were reported in the press. The gross exaggeration of what actually took place, has been detrimental to societal cohesion).
    More than 126 fines were issued.

    You have no idea the anger in this country that moments after telling us not to go out and meet our friends and loved ones the PM and his staff were getting suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed.
    It's remarkable how that doesn't seem to matter one jot to plenty in the Tory membership because of how much they love old Boris.
    Anyone who has signed Lord Cruddas' ludicrous petition should not be allowed to vote on anything, anywhere.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    Does that take into account a shortage in prepayment meters if everyone does the same?

    I think it is more likely that people just cancel their direct debits but continue to pay as much as they can each month.
  • Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    Does that take into account a shortage in prepayment meters if everyone does the same?

    I think it is more likely that people just cancel their direct debits but continue to pay as much as they can each month.
    No.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    I had an eighty something frail widow burst into tears in my clinic yesterday. Her house is 100 years old and expensive to heat, and larger than she now needs, but not only does she love it, but also gets a lot of practical support from her neighbours. Without those neighbours she couldn't live independently.

    She tearfully ran through her sums in the consulting room as to the economies she would have to make, and the meagre savings that she had to run down. Every modest pleasure would be gone. I could do no more than listen sympathetically, and let the clinic fall behind.
    What a sad story. A single old person, living in a big or old house, is going to be terribly affected by the utility bills. Let’s hope she can find some way through, by moving in with a friend or relative, or by living in one room for the winter.

    From a political point of view, there’s going to be an awful lot of people with such stories, and the press will love printing them. Government needs to have a communication strategy, around how these people can find ways to work through the winter. It requires a war-time mentality from everyone, because a large part of the disruption is being caused by a war.
    Difficult to have a "we're all in this together" mentality after the Downing Street parties and decorating.
    I’m not quite sure how that follows. There will be a different Prime Minister, and we are talking about saving energy, which the government will be trying to do themselves, as much as the rest of us.

    (It’s also why I really dislike the way ‘parties’ were reported in the press. The gross exaggeration of what actually took place, has been detrimental to societal cohesion).
    More than 126 fines were issued.

    You have no idea the anger in this country that moments after telling us not to go out and meet our friends and loved ones the PM and his staff were getting suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed.
    How to illustrate my point for me.

    The event in question was a few dozen staffers sitting outside in the garden at their workplace for an hour, with the boss turning up to thank them for their extraordinary efforts in dealing with a national emergency.

    Describing it as “…suitcases full of booze and getting sloshed” is part of the problem, and why the public reaction was as it was.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    edited August 2022

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    Supposedly it takes months. In which time the impoverished bill payer is being harassed by growing red bills and then likely debt collection letters and threats of summonses. For money they don't have for bills that are grotesque and can't be paid even with a court order.

    This is why we need to agree up front that they won't be paid. The energy companies will make a loss this winter. Making a loss for a period is business, isn't it?
    It does feel like a classic case of privatise the profits, socialise the losses.

    I appreciate it's not really like that, but still.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited August 2022
    Here we go:

    18 November 2015 – UK becomes first major country to announce coal phase-out

    UK Energy Secretary Amber Rudd announced that the UK would close all its coal-fired power plants by 2025, with proposals to replace coal power generation with gas and nuclear plants. The announcement came less than two weeks before the start of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which negotiated the Paris Agreement.

    LOL
  • Don’t ever fall for the lie that Royal Family are good for the economy.

    Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.

    The Office for National Statistics said two bank holidays to celebrate the Queen’s jubilee contributed to a 0.6% fall in output in June alone.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-june?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wasn't it only one extra Bank Holiday day? One of the two was delayed from the final Monday in May so should be baked into the comparable quarterly figures anyway.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Ahem. I should perhaps have read the whole thread about Truss's comments... ;)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    She isn't really wrong. There's a very guarded large section of Rolls Royce off Raynesway (IIRC) where the submarine nuclear reactors are designed, and many components constructed - though AIUI some of the nuclear parts are done at the Vulcan site at Dounreay.

    The tories are closing NRTE at Dounreay. The testing for the PWR3 in the Dreadnought boats (and presumably the Astute replacement) will be done by software simulation apparently. 🙌
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563
    moonshine said:

    By the way Dr John Campbell, not normally one to get swept up by hyperbole, has said he has stopped consuming fresh fruit and milk. Reason being that he’s not confident we will get warning of nuclear fallout from Zaporizhzhia until after the fact.

    He's wrong.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Presumably Truss has been misinterpreted regarding her comments on energy companies?

    Liz Truss is in Gloucestershire

    She says: "We need to get on with delivering the small modular nuclear reactors which we produce HERE IN DERBYSHIRE"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1557805805264674819
    So she meant HERE as the UK?

    And?
    That is how I understood it
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    I was discussing this last night, you're looking at non payment of 3 months/£1200 arrears for the energy companies to apply to the courts for a warrant of entry to fit a prepayment meter.

    Given how sclerotic the courts are at the moment, you could probably get away without paying your bills for about 6 to 8 months before a prepayment meter is fitted.
    Does that take into account a shortage in prepayment meters if everyone does the same?

    I think it is more likely that people just cancel their direct debits but continue to pay as much as they can each month.
    No.
    I would imagine that paying something, even if it is just on the old price cap rate, would help your case if it came to that?

    I have a friend who is signed up to a 100% renewable electricity tariff and simply cannot get her head around the fact the price will go up. When did the price of wind go up? Isn't it getting cheaper all the time?

    There is really limited understanding of how these markets work (I include myself) and that is part of the problem here. That "nationalise the retailers for £2 billion and get fuel costs back to normal" thing has got real currency, despite it being nonsense.
  • Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay then, energy bills.

    The current planned “Energy Bills Support Scheme”, is to give every residential address a £400 discount on their energy bills, over six months from October.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-bills-support-scheme-explainer

    There’s also:
    1. A £650 one-off Cost of Living Payment for around 8 million households on means tested benefits
    2. A one-off £300 Pensioner Cost of Living Payment for over 8 million pensioner households to be paid alongside the Winter Fuel Payment
    3. Payment of £150 for around 6 million people across the UK who receive certain disability benefits
    4. £500 million increase and extension of the Household Support Fund

    In total, this is planned to cost the government £37bn.

    My question is, how much publicity have these schemes been given? Has there yet been, or is there planned to be, any public information advertising - both about the scheme itself, and more generally about how to reduce usage of electricity and gas over the winter, for example by wearing more clothing and only heating occupied rooms, by moving Granny in with family etc?

    As well as making sure people can pay their bills, we also need to incentivise people to use a lot less energy than normal. We know that price elasticity of demand for energy is very low, albeit not as low as for petrol, so there may need to be significant lifestyle changes to appreciably reduce demand.

    Another issue, which has so far received litle publicity, is commercial users of electricity. Not just large industries, but offices and retail business that will be affected by much higher bills than expected. Will we see supermarkets turn off half their lights, or reduce the number of fridges and freezers? Will white-collar companies institute WFH over the winter, to enable them to close offices? The large users of electricity in factories etc, already have contracts with energy companies that pay them to shut down at times of peak demand, although usually only for a few hours at a time - how can this be extended to cover a period of several months over the winter, for non-essential industry?

    Wfh, running fewer trains and running them more slowly seems sensible to me as a pretty quick win.

    I was rather struck by Foxy’s widow story. It feels a lot like since Feb we’ve been in the phoney war stage in Western Europe. The public large are going to realise pretty soon that you can’t have a war waged against Europe by a non allied superpower without it touching our lives somehow. If a period of energy rationing is all we end up facing we’ll have got off lightly historically speaking.
    But you are still championing the energy companies. What is your proposal to stop millions sliding into penury this winter? These bills aren't getting paid which leaves someone holding the baby...
    I think that is the great unknown. Many people will be unable to pay, and will fall into arrears. How soon will they be cut off?
    Supposedly it takes months. In which time the impoverished bill payer is being harassed by growing red bills and then likely debt collection letters and threats of summonses. For money they don't have for bills that are grotesque and can't be paid even with a court order.

    This is why we need to agree up front that they won't be paid. The energy companies will make a loss this winter. Making a loss for a period is business, isn't it?
    It does feel like a classic case of privatise the profits, socialise the losses.

    I appreciate it's not really like that, but still.
    And the problem for the government is that politics is about the feels, even if government is about the reality.

    A really good government manage to make the feels and the reality good, but it's a while since we've had one of those.
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