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Truss now favourite to be PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,507

    It's not just Chinese shrew viruses...

    Urgent polio boosters for London children
    All children aged one to nine and living in Greater London will be offered a polio vaccine after the virus was detected in sewage.
    ... snip ...
    Polio is seen as a disease of the past in the UK after the whole of Europe was declared polio-free in 2003.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62492784

    If I recall this from around 6 weeks ago, the suspicion is this is related to the use of live polio vaccine, rather than a specific outbreak of polio. Those vaccinated can shed, but it is unlikely to be able to infect anyone.

    Its also likely, but not been explicitly reported, that the origin is outside of the UK.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,883
    edited August 2022
    For anyone who wants to save themselves the trouble of copy-typing 58,000 words from an English dictionary, they are all available here:

    http://www.mieliestronk.com/corncob_lowercase.txt

    ETA doesn't include 'spiritedness' which was Comrade Dynamo's fatal tell from earlier today.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022
    darkage said:

    Why are people not fleeing the high tax Nordic states?

    Which high tax Nordic states do you have in mind?

    Many did which is why the Nordic states have reversed high tax policies that backfired.

    Many Nordic states have higher but flatter tax rates without the 'NYC skyline' peaks and troughs of cliff edges we have in this country. Higher taxes is something I disagree with politically, though higher but flatter taxes are fairer for me than trapping many people in even higher marginal tax rates like we do in this country.
    In my experience (Finland), the taxes are higher for the lower paid because you always have to pay a flat municipal tax of around 20%. What this means in practice is that wages are higher for the lower paid, so it is harder to run a small business, and prices are higher than the UK, but not so much nowadays given the weak euro.

    Generally the services are much better. Massive swimming pools, beautiful parks and gardens and public squares, awesome libraries, fantastic public transport, cycle lanes, world beating schools etc.

    There doesn't seem to be an industry of small accountants. You just go to the tax office and do what you are told.

    There is something quite liberating and enterprising about the UK and its enormous complexity, loopholes and general inequality.
    20% tax for the lower paid, if that is what it is, is of course considerably lower than the 70% HMRC charges the lower paid, once you add up the main taxes and taper etc together.

    DavidL said:

    This is something that will damage Liz Truss, I remember a pollster telling me Martin Lewis had astronomical trust figures with the public, compared to the gutter most politicians were found in.

    Liz Truss has been urged to ditch “outrageous” claims that tax cuts will deal with energy price rises after she continued to hold out against immediate help with bills yesterday.

    Martin Lewis, the money-saving expert, said the frontrunner to become prime minister must set out detailed plans this month and offered to help draw them up as he warned that the energy crisis risked civil unrest and deaths from hypothermia this winter.

    Rishi Sunak, who is Truss’s rival in the Tory leadership race, must also commit himself to doubling the package he set out as chancellor in May, Lewis said. He accused the Conservative Party of neglecting a “financial cataclysm” that would push millions into destitution.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/savings-guru-martin-lewis-criticises-liz-truss-as-4-400-energy-bills-forecast-qjj5wnkm3

    There's a reason why scammers use the image of Martin Lewis to try and entice people to hand their money over to them, people trust him on things like this.

    I am afraid that Martin Lewis is being completely unrealistic here. How can the government pay everyone's increase in their heating bills? It is completely and utterly unsustainable. What needs to be done is to protect the vulnerable. The rest of us will just have to pay more for our fuel until the price comes down again. Sunak's plans for the first increase was frankly terrible policy and should not be repeated or augmented.
    True, in which case tax cuts are worse than useless. The nature of tax cuts is to help those who have more, more.

    Rough ballpark for what has to happen is that the bottom third will need a lot, if not complete help with this. That means the £1000 support going up to close to £2500. We're talking people who don't have £2500 spare. That's not happing by tax cuts.
    Alternatively reducing taxation encourages those who don't have much to be able to work to get more, so paying their bills and having more afterwards.

    Ratcheting up taxes on those who are working for a living in order to further swell the welfare state isn't the only option.
    The tragedy is that so much of the welfare bill is the state subsidising the profits of Asda etc. Companies refused to pay decent wages, so faced with millions working and still living in penury Gordon Brown came up with Working Tax Credits.

    I support a "what works" approach to most things, but despite working short term this hasn't worked long term. The right approach would have been to offer companies corporation tax cuts if they pay appropriate wages. Instead, CTax has collapsed down to 19% with companies not required to do anything in return for it.

    So there is no way back now. Companies won't pay a living wage because why should they. Government has no leverage any more other than demonise working people as "claiming benefits". No, that would be their employers.
    Sorry but that's utter codswallop. A full time 37.5h worker even on the legal minimum 'living wage' of £9.50 per hour is earning over £18.5k per annum and is paying a lot in tax including national insurance and employers national insurance which is a hidden tax on wages. And without kids a couple working full time even on minimum wage aren't entitled to tax credits/universal credit.

    Tax credits wasn't set up to deal with low wages, the "minimum wage" was set up to deal with that, it was pure welfare. Asda etc aren't going to pay for someone who is working only 16 hours per week to support lots of children, if you want the state to do that then argue for that, don't claim its corporate welfare. Asda didn't choose to get pregnant and have kids.
    If a worker, full time, on £9.50 per hour sees an income tax cut from 20% to 16%, they will be better off to the tune of £4.58 per week.

    (assume 37.5 hours per week, 52 weeks paid = £18,525 per annum. Currently pays £22.90 income tax per week and £15.17 NI per week)

    That won't be the hugest of benefits.
    Ah the classic way to minimise a number you're not keen on, divide it per week.

    £4.58 per week may not sound much to you, though at £238 per year it might sound a bit more, despite being the same number. Another way of looking at it is that the individual is taking home half an hour per week extra overtime for free in the post-tax pay packet every week. Its even more considering that tax, NI, taper if applicable etc would apply to any overtime. That's not something to turn your nose down upon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Nigelb said:

    what3words I think works offline which is a good feature.

    Google Maps does work offline but unless you've saved the local maps you won't see anything

    Yes, it's really pretty good for fixed locations.
    I don't know why they're hyping mountain rescue at all.
    It's moderately useful for insurance claim reporting too: where did the assistant take place? "Chair, dishwasher, cheese"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,507

    I feel like Leon reads about something and then immediately jumps in at a million miles an hour.

    Reminds me of my CEO who has an idea and then spends an hour writing emails

    He is a self confessed adrenaline junkie, and likes to be seen to be ahead of the crowd, so will often jump on an initial story and hope that he is seen as such.
    There have been other posters with the same trait, but its important to remember, that just because one Sage-like doom merchant decamps to South Wales at the start of a pandemic, it doesn't mean that a million will be dead by tea time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way
  • It's not just Chinese shrew viruses...

    Urgent polio boosters for London children
    All children aged one to nine and living in Greater London will be offered a polio vaccine after the virus was detected in sewage.
    ... snip ...
    Polio is seen as a disease of the past in the UK after the whole of Europe was declared polio-free in 2003.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62492784

    If I recall this from around 6 weeks ago, the suspicion is this is related to the use of live polio vaccine, rather than a specific outbreak of polio. Those vaccinated can shed, but it is unlikely to be able to infect anyone.

    Its also likely, but not been explicitly reported, that the origin is outside of the UK.
    Yes, it covers that in the linked story but adds: The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says most of the samples detected are the safe vaccine form of polio, but "a few" have mutated enough to be dangerous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,253
    kinabalu said:

    Anyway, striving to entertain the blog before I decamp to the Belsize bar that few know about, but also to illustrate a very serious political flaw in Liz Truss, being her uncontrollable mindless fetish for ... tax cuts.

    So, Liz the GP:

    “Doctor, I’m being plagued by a ghastly pain in the neck.”
    “Ah me too. Rishi’s such a trial.”
    “No, a pain in MY neck, I mean.”
    “Oh, I see. Ok. For how long?”
    “Over a week now. Can you prescribe me something for it?”
    “I certainly can! I know exactly what you need. We’ll put you on a course of tax cuts.”
    “That will cure my bad neck?”
    “No idea - but you’ll have more of your own money in your pocket.”

    And Liz the stand-up comedian:

    This Yorkshireman walks into a bar in Belsize Park and the barman is a rough and ready cockney -
    “What can I get you mate?” (in rough and ready 'geezer' accent)
    “A pint of vodka please.” (in Yorkshire accent but not a very strong one)
    “Bloody hell. Are you ok mate?”
    “Yep, pint of voddy, I’m celebrating.”
    “Must be something special!”
    “It is – I'm a banker and I’ve had a tax cut so I’ve got more of my own money in my pocket.”
    “Sure there’s enough room?
    “What do you mean?”
    “Well let’s face it, pal, there’s always lots of other people’s money in there too, right?”
    “Oh piss off you smartass cockney geezer barman.”

    And last but not least - Liz the grooved up reggae singer:

    Money in my pocket cos my tax has just been cut (yeah)
    Money in my pocket cos my tax has just been cut
    The cash is really mine
    I work for it all the time (yeah)
    It’s hard for a man to live without a tax cut … no no

    ... don't tell me not to give up the day job because this IS the day job :smile:

    Good enough to get a Radio 4 comedy slot at 6.30.....
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 787
    edited August 2022

    RH1992 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On paper maps and road atlases , I dont have Sat Nav and I dont get lost - Road Atlases are such a manly joy - you are in charge of your route not some algorithm , the ten minutes or so at the start of a long journey day planning your route using a physical atlas is not wasted but filled with purpose for the day , reinforcing whatever mission you have at the other end as well as reinforcing British geography but also more importantly curiosity - in those ten minutes you will be surprised somewhere you think you knew was slightly located somewhere else, discover a village you had never heard of despite being in the same region as you and a strange feature of the landscape . You dont get this with Sat Nav (and you still get lost)

    Would I be right in thinking you are what is colloquially known by young folk as a "boomer"?
    No I an of Gen x actually but I am an orienteer and a map reader ! Orienteering is a great empowering and confidence building skill and indeed sport- unlike being ordered to turn left by your car
    So you sit with a 1:25,000 map on your lap as you navigate the Hangar Lane Gyratory System?
    well its not hard is it ? I have always found the Hanger Lane Gyratory easy enough without SATNAV
    Waze will take you through streets you never imagined existed just by saying turn left turn right in 100 yds take the second exit at the roundabout.

    No map can do that as safely or efficiently.
    ...I often find the worst people on motorways are people who panic about which lane to be in making last minute decisions, for example, when there's a lane drop that's been signed a good 1 or 2 miles in advance of it happening. More often than not when I overtake there's a sat nav stuck to the windscreen right in front of their face and it's obvious they haven't taken a single look at any road sign...
    Google maps, and all decent factory car nav systems, give well-timed warnings as you approach a motorway exit or other junction. Your caricature of satnav users suggests you haven't really understood how it works or haven't been able to make it your servant rather than your master.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not implying that all nav users are that way and I do know it gives you lane advice. I know the vast majority will use it without incident. My point is that a lot of the not so good driving I've seen has been people who are in tunnel vision mode with their nav system and can't act independently of it. A lane drop was perhaps not the best example, but a temporary lane closure around a junction that a sat nav might not know about could cause confusion. Smart motorways also don't help when some hard shoulders are used as exit lanes during rush hour.
  • The Evening Standard owned by Boris's mate (and probably not a Russian spy) Lord Lebedev backs the one not blamed for defenestrating Boris (also probably not a Russian spy). Colour me shocked.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    kinabalu said:

    Anyway, striving to entertain the blog before I decamp to the Belsize bar that few know about, but also to illustrate a very serious political flaw in Liz Truss, being her uncontrollable mindless fetish for ... tax cuts.

    So, Liz the GP:

    “Doctor, I’m being plagued by a ghastly pain in the neck.”
    “Ah me too. Rishi’s such a trial.”
    “No, a pain in MY neck, I mean.”
    “Oh, I see. Ok. For how long?”
    “Over a week now. Can you prescribe me something for it?”
    “I certainly can! I know exactly what you need. We’ll put you on a course of tax cuts.”
    “That will cure my bad neck?”
    “No idea - but you’ll have more of your own money in your pocket.”

    And Liz the stand-up comedian:

    This Yorkshireman walks into a bar in Belsize Park and the barman is a rough and ready cockney -
    “What can I get you mate?” (in rough and ready 'geezer' accent)
    “A pint of vodka please.” (in Yorkshire accent but not a very strong one)
    “Bloody hell. Are you ok mate?”
    “Yep, pint of voddy, I’m celebrating.”
    “Must be something special!”
    “It is – I'm a banker and I’ve had a tax cut so I’ve got more of my own money in my pocket.”
    “Sure there’s enough room?
    “What do you mean?”
    “Well let’s face it, pal, there’s always lots of other people’s money in there too, right?”
    “Oh piss off you smartass cockney geezer barman.”

    And last but not least - Liz the grooved up reggae singer:

    Money in my pocket cos my tax has just been cut (yeah)
    Money in my pocket cos my tax has just been cut
    The cash is really mine
    I work for it all the time (yeah)
    It’s hard for a man to live without a tax cut … no no

    ... don't tell me not to give up the day job because this IS the day job :smile:

    Good enough to get a Radio 4 comedy slot at 6.30.....
    Oh, not quite that bad.
  • Don't knock paper maps. They are invaluable for finding and validating alternative routes when your SatNav does something silly (invariably, it simply calculates the shortest route between two points using public roads, or using public road speeds for quickest, and you should always check them).

    Google maps and SatNavs are good for getting to a postcode. W3W for finding a specific door when you get there.

    Possibly for lost hikers too where you need to describe an exact grid reference, but any serious hiker should know how to do it with an OS map too for the same reasons.

    Except its not usually them that need the help.

    I recall a major news story around some tricky weather during the Official Mountain Marathon a few years back. The usual frothing in the media about people being unprepared, shouldn't be allowed etc. In reality ALL entrants experienced, had the kit, made the right choices (abandon and get to shelter, or tough it out etc) and there was not real drama.

    What three words is most help for twunks who go walking with a road atlas in flip flops.
    Not really. It is also useful for anyone in any area they are unfamiliar with. Like the middle of an unfamiliar town or city in the middle of the night. Or a country road when you break down. I have used it a couple of times when my daughter, having just started driving, ran out of petrol in the middle of rural Lincolnshire.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating interview with the guy who founded what3words, and had the basic idea

    He really put in the hours


    "He grabbed a dictionary and began the painstaking process of copying every word into an Excel spreadsheet and assigning each one a score out of ten for its suitability for use within the app, with common, easy to spell words given the highest marks and trickier, rarer words given lower ratings. “I did it every day for six months. It makes you notice how long the dictionary actually is,” he says. “I was living on my friend’s sofa at the time. And he was certainly confused. But I think he also admired my persistence.”"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-what3words-revolutionise-the-way-we-navigate-the-world-tt0706nnv


    This company is going to EXPLODE

    He did it by hand? Mad.

    You can access dictionaries online. With a python script I daresay. And then you can use a Soundex function to work out which ones sound similar, and how many characters they differ by, etc.

    Why would you do that by hand? By hand?
    For a $500m cheque from google by the sound of it

    ///if.you.are

    ///so.smart.how

    ///come.you.aren't

    ///RICH! RICH! RICH?
    Likewise, all the PB-ers telling us "oh I knew about W3W in 2017"

    Well then why didn't you bloody tell us? Because it's obviously a genius idea and we could all have invested money and now we'd all be sitting back waiting for Google to give us £2m for our shares

    Chiz
    First recorded mention of "what3words" on PB.com. August 2019.

    Gallowgate Posts: 18,380
    August 2019
    Has anyone seen this new ‘what3words’ thing which is like post codes for the 21st Century? The whole world is split up into 3mx3m grid with 3 unique words for each one. It’s very interesting. 10 Downing Street is drum.larger.occupy ...


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2444562#Comment_2444562
  • Nigelb said:


    The day the CHIPS act was signed

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPJAwHQj8SI
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    "the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority"


    1. The DUP can be bought. Its just, the price went up.

    2. The challenge facing Labour is the Tories got an 80 seat majority at the last election. And in much of that majority, the trend is not Labour's friend.

    3. Labour are a dismal void, bereft of any alternative postures that remotely enthuse the voters. Embodied by their leader.

    On her showing so far, the Tories could be on hands and knees begging Wallace to take over from Truss in a coronation this winter. Hope I'm wrong (as I vote for Rishi), but there is a material risk the voters will hate her by then.

    Surely Truss leads you into a January GE2025.
    If she doesn't, Johnson will be waiting in the wings, and through a bout of national insanity, as likely as not will win a 20 seat majority.

    Let's assume Truss is safe. The economy is not her friend, even if by 2025 the economy is in the ascent, the Conservatives get tonked!

    Putin is her friend, and if he fails she benefits, although the economy is not her friend, and she still struggles, but not as much. Maybe even squeaking a very small majority.

    I also believe Labour should have a modestly coherent economic plan by then, which might be a small help to them. Rachel Reeves is thankfully no Annaliese Dodds. It's the economy...or Boris Johnson wot wins it!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating interview with the guy who founded what3words, and had the basic idea

    He really put in the hours


    "He grabbed a dictionary and began the painstaking process of copying every word into an Excel spreadsheet and assigning each one a score out of ten for its suitability for use within the app, with common, easy to spell words given the highest marks and trickier, rarer words given lower ratings. “I did it every day for six months. It makes you notice how long the dictionary actually is,” he says. “I was living on my friend’s sofa at the time. And he was certainly confused. But I think he also admired my persistence.”"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-what3words-revolutionise-the-way-we-navigate-the-world-tt0706nnv


    This company is going to EXPLODE

    He did it by hand? Mad.

    You can access dictionaries online. With a python script I daresay. And then you can use a Soundex function to work out which ones sound similar, and how many characters they differ by, etc.

    Why would you do that by hand? By hand?
    For a $500m cheque from google by the sound of it

    ///if.you.are

    ///so.smart.how

    ///come.you.aren't

    ///RICH! RICH! RICH?
    Likewise, all the PB-ers telling us "oh I knew about W3W in 2017"

    Well then why didn't you bloody tell us? Because it's obviously a genius idea and we could all have invested money and now we'd all be sitting back waiting for Google to give us £2m for our shares

    Chiz
    First recorded mention of "what3words" on PB.com. August 2019.

    Gallowgate Posts: 18,380
    August 2019
    Has anyone seen this new ‘what3words’ thing which is like post codes for the 21st Century? The whole world is split up into 3mx3m grid with 3 unique words for each one. It’s very interesting. 10 Downing Street is drum.larger.occupy ...


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2444562#Comment_2444562
    Maybe he's retired on the fortune he made?
    Incidentally. Three comments after that is a post speculating we may see deflation.
    It ends with
    "We need inflation!"
    Doors. Blow off.
  • Guess who Waze is owned by...
  • RH1992 said:

    RH1992 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On paper maps and road atlases , I dont have Sat Nav and I dont get lost - Road Atlases are such a manly joy - you are in charge of your route not some algorithm , the ten minutes or so at the start of a long journey day planning your route using a physical atlas is not wasted but filled with purpose for the day , reinforcing whatever mission you have at the other end as well as reinforcing British geography but also more importantly curiosity - in those ten minutes you will be surprised somewhere you think you knew was slightly located somewhere else, discover a village you had never heard of despite being in the same region as you and a strange feature of the landscape . You dont get this with Sat Nav (and you still get lost)

    Would I be right in thinking you are what is colloquially known by young folk as a "boomer"?
    No I an of Gen x actually but I am an orienteer and a map reader ! Orienteering is a great empowering and confidence building skill and indeed sport- unlike being ordered to turn left by your car
    So you sit with a 1:25,000 map on your lap as you navigate the Hangar Lane Gyratory System?
    well its not hard is it ? I have always found the Hanger Lane Gyratory easy enough without SATNAV
    Waze will take you through streets you never imagined existed just by saying turn left turn right in 100 yds take the second exit at the roundabout.

    No map can do that as safely or efficiently.
    ...I often find the worst people on motorways are people who panic about which lane to be in making last minute decisions, for example, when there's a lane drop that's been signed a good 1 or 2 miles in advance of it happening. More often than not when I overtake there's a sat nav stuck to the windscreen right in front of their face and it's obvious they haven't taken a single look at any road sign...
    Google maps, and all decent factory car nav systems, give well-timed warnings as you approach a motorway exit or other junction. Your caricature of satnav users suggests you haven't really understood how it works or haven't been able to make it your servant rather than your master.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not implying that all nav users are that way and I do know it gives you lane advice. I know the vast majority will use it without incident. My point is that a lot of the not so good driving I've seen has been people who are in tunnel vision mode with their nav system and can't act independently of it. A lane drop was perhaps not the best example, but a temporary lane closure around a junction that a sat nav might not know about could cause confusion. Smart motorways also don't help when some hard shoulders are used as exit lanes during rush hour.
    Actually I owe you at least a partial apology. I didn't really take in that you said "lane drop" rather than exit.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,883
    Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    It needs to find a way to deal with high-rise buildings. insect.stands.panel 43rd floor, for example.
  • Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    As I explained to you, they/we did...
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,175
    edited August 2022

    Guess who Waze is owned by...

    Ooooooh me! Me!! *waves hand*

    Google!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,042

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating interview with the guy who founded what3words, and had the basic idea

    He really put in the hours


    "He grabbed a dictionary and began the painstaking process of copying every word into an Excel spreadsheet and assigning each one a score out of ten for its suitability for use within the app, with common, easy to spell words given the highest marks and trickier, rarer words given lower ratings. “I did it every day for six months. It makes you notice how long the dictionary actually is,” he says. “I was living on my friend’s sofa at the time. And he was certainly confused. But I think he also admired my persistence.”"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-what3words-revolutionise-the-way-we-navigate-the-world-tt0706nnv


    This company is going to EXPLODE

    He did it by hand? Mad.

    You can access dictionaries online. With a python script I daresay. And then you can use a Soundex function to work out which ones sound similar, and how many characters they differ by, etc.

    Why would you do that by hand? By hand?
    For a $500m cheque from google by the sound of it

    ///if.you.are

    ///so.smart.how

    ///come.you.aren't

    ///RICH! RICH! RICH?
    Likewise, all the PB-ers telling us "oh I knew about W3W in 2017"

    Well then why didn't you bloody tell us? Because it's obviously a genius idea and we could all have invested money and now we'd all be sitting back waiting for Google to give us £2m for our shares

    Chiz
    First recorded mention of "what3words" on PB.com. August 2019.

    Gallowgate Posts: 18,380
    August 2019
    Has anyone seen this new ‘what3words’ thing which is like post codes for the 21st Century? The whole world is split up into 3mx3m grid with 3 unique words for each one. It’s very interesting. 10 Downing Street is drum.larger.occupy ...


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2444562#Comment_2444562
    And this:
    It is a great system for emergency services, but also useful for finding Mrs Foxy when she wanders off in the shops!

    Byronic probably made a fortune on it.
    Shame @Leon wasn't around at the time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230
    This time last year I went to stay with friends at their new place on the coast.
    They gave me their address and w3w. I knew what it was even though I hadn't used it.
    So regular folk have been using it for quite a while.
  • "the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority"


    1. The DUP can be bought. Its just, the price went up.

    2. The challenge facing Labour is the Tories got an 80 seat majority at the last election. And in much of that majority, the trend is not Labour's friend.

    3. Labour are a dismal void, bereft of any alternative postures that remotely enthuse the voters. Embodied by their leader.

    On her showing so far, the Tories could be on hands and knees begging Wallace to take over from Truss in a coronation this winter. Hope I'm wrong (as I vote for Rishi), but there is a material risk the voters will hate her by then.

    On her showing so far, it seems to me that Truss has been consistently underestimated. Perhaps even misunderestimated.

    Truss has been near the top of British politics for a decade and yet the only huge negative that people have to say about her is her speaking style is a bit funny, especially a decade ago while talking about pork markets and cheese. For the past decade she's frequently confounded her critics and has done so again in this leadership campaign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    Guess who Waze is owned by...

    Mrs Rishi Sunak?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    "the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority"


    1. The DUP can be bought. Its just, the price went up.

    2. The challenge facing Labour is the Tories got an 80 seat majority at the last election. And in much of that majority, the trend is not Labour's friend.

    3. Labour are a dismal void, bereft of any alternative postures that remotely enthuse the voters. Embodied by their leader.

    On her showing so far, the Tories could be on hands and knees begging Wallace to take over from Truss in a coronation this winter. Hope I'm wrong (as I vote for Rishi), but there is a material risk the voters will hate her by then.

    On her showing so far, it seems to me that Truss has been consistently underestimated. Perhaps even misunderestimated.

    Truss has been near the top of British politics for a decade and yet the only huge negative that people have to say about her is her speaking style is a bit funny, especially a decade ago while talking about pork markets and cheese. For the past decade she's frequently confounded her critics and has done so again in this leadership campaign.
    The Clown is dead! Long live the Lady Clown!
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484

    Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    As I explained to you, they/we did...
    No offence but you didn’t do it very well?

    I’ve often thought that Google maps should make it much easier to share precise locations

    But I never had the truly scintillating idea of breaking up the entire world into tiny memorable three word squares. That’s a truly eureka moment



  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,507

    Don't knock paper maps. They are invaluable for finding and validating alternative routes when your SatNav does something silly (invariably, it simply calculates the shortest route between two points using public roads, or using public road speeds for quickest, and you should always check them).

    Google maps and SatNavs are good for getting to a postcode. W3W for finding a specific door when you get there.

    Possibly for lost hikers too where you need to describe an exact grid reference, but any serious hiker should know how to do it with an OS map too for the same reasons.

    Except its not usually them that need the help.

    I recall a major news story around some tricky weather during the Official Mountain Marathon a few years back. The usual frothing in the media about people being unprepared, shouldn't be allowed etc. In reality ALL entrants experienced, had the kit, made the right choices (abandon and get to shelter, or tough it out etc) and there was not real drama.

    What three words is most help for twunks who go walking with a road atlas in flip flops.
    Not really. It is also useful for anyone in any area they are unfamiliar with. Like the middle of an unfamiliar town or city in the middle of the night. Or a country road when you break down. I have used it a couple of times when my daughter, having just started driving, ran out of petrol in the middle of rural Lincolnshire.
    TBF I was referring to walking incidents. I acknowledge the other uses too.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,873
    edited August 2022
    I forgot to tell you all about my gardening near disaster on Monday

    I was at my mate's and picking some of the lovely courgettes we've grown, and when picking one from the edge of the plant, bent down and nearly took my eye out on the cane supporting another plant.

    It hit me on the eyelid, but because my eye was open, and the angle I hit it at, it caught that bit of the eyelid on the bone just below my eyebrow. When I close my eye, the cane end imprint is just above the middle of my eyeball. I think I might have been less than a centimetre from blinding myself in that eye, or at least severely impairing its vision.

    I managed to not drip any blood on the courgettes, and then got it well cleaned up and Savlon on it. It's a little bit swollen, but I think from the trauma rather than infection as it's healing up nicely and doesn't really hurt. But it does rather look like I've lost a fight!

    Anyway, I've just been down to Waitrose and practicing my new smile on everyone, as wide as I can. I forgot about my eye. I must have looked quite crazy..
  • MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    And all any competitor needs or indeed Google need to do is replace:

    51°30'28.7"N 0°09'39.8"W
    51.507980, -0.161044

    with

    Apple.Banana.Marrow

    for the GUI.

    That would mean Google purchasing W3W for lots of money. They can't just copy it because there's all kinds of IP associated they'd be violating. I can't imagine W3W would sell for less than a billion.
    Well w3w (as per @Leon's post) has a link to the satnav service of your choice but the fact remains that Google Maps has all the functionality of w3w so it wouldn't take a huge copyright violation to make, say, the buttons big and red and easy to use for example.

    GoogleFind.

    They can have that one for free.
    No, it would be because plus codes are not the same at all. As Leon has been pointing out the beauty of w3w is that you can tell people a location name with three words. That's the IP value and Google would need to buy it from them.
    There is a reason we didn't make it exactly the same.

    I think w3w is superior - I just am objecting to the idea Google doesn't have something similar
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022

    How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376

    Hopefully this isn’t indicative of Biden’s short-term memory:

    https://twitter.com/steveguest/status/1557011318175047680

    I think he was gesturing toward the podium to invite the guy to speak.
  • RH1992 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On paper maps and road atlases , I dont have Sat Nav and I dont get lost - Road Atlases are such a manly joy - you are in charge of your route not some algorithm , the ten minutes or so at the start of a long journey day planning your route using a physical atlas is not wasted but filled with purpose for the day , reinforcing whatever mission you have at the other end as well as reinforcing British geography but also more importantly curiosity - in those ten minutes you will be surprised somewhere you think you knew was slightly located somewhere else, discover a village you had never heard of despite being in the same region as you and a strange feature of the landscape . You dont get this with Sat Nav (and you still get lost)

    Would I be right in thinking you are what is colloquially known by young folk as a "boomer"?
    No I an of Gen x actually but I am an orienteer and a map reader ! Orienteering is a great empowering and confidence building skill and indeed sport- unlike being ordered to turn left by your car
    So you sit with a 1:25,000 map on your lap as you navigate the Hangar Lane Gyratory System?
    well its not hard is it ? I have always found the Hanger Lane Gyratory easy enough without SATNAV
    Waze will take you through streets you never imagined existed just by saying turn left turn right in 100 yds take the second exit at the roundabout.

    No map can do that as safely or efficiently.

    ...e.g I've never been to Stoke-on-Trent but I know that you'd get there from Leeds via the M62 westbound, anti clockwise around the M60 onto the M56 then down the M6 .
    Heh. Just noticed this bit. Google Maps suggests that, whether based on live traffic now or typical middle of the day traffic, this route is approx 10 minutes slower than hitting the M6 earlier, i.e. M62-M60-M62-M6.

    Those minutes add up :)

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    OK let's go through this. Let's see how W3W is doing versus PB's received opinion that it is simultaneously rubbish, boring, useless, and only doing what other maps already do

    So, how are they doing?

    DHL have adopted it:

    https://www.enterprisetimes.co.uk/2022/04/07/dhl-partners-with-what3words-for-uk-parcel-app/

    As we know, all the carmakers want to use it:

    https://www.axios.com/2022/05/05/carmakers-adopt-what3words-app-for-voice-navigation

    Taxi companies are using it:

    https://www.taxi-point.co.uk/post/taxi-despatch-firm-sherlock-partners-with-what3words

    The Queen uses it to report fires:

    "The team took to Instagram to plead with visitors over a safety matter, writing: "The Royal Parkland still remains very dry after the hot weather. Please remain vigilant when visiting, report a fire immediately, we would also encourage visitors to download 'what3words' app to help with locations. Please do not BBQ and take home any rubbish to help reduce the risk."

    https://www.hellomagazine.com/homes/20220808147614/the-queen-home-sandringham-safety-warning-fires/

    Ecommerce deliveries:


    https://edelivery.net/2022/08/gfs-partners-what3words/


    McKinsey calls it "the future of navigation"

    https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-future-of-navigation-in-a-digitized-world-an-interview-with-what3wordss-clare-jones


    Missing hikers in Ontario are using it:

    https://globalnews.ca/news/9006869/missing-hikers-located-ontario-what3words/

    Local listings are using it:

    https://www.marketingtechnews.net/news/2022/jun/21/yext-aims-to-give-customers-control-over-location-data-with-what3words/

    The Germans have invested €60m


    https://tech.eu/2022/05/24/german-media-pool-backs-what3words-with-eur80-million-media-volume-for-geolocation-solution/


    Not bad for a company that is basically just a shittier version of an old Ordnance Survey map and a pencil

    We like it, Leon, we like it. In particular situations for some and others for others. Some see different options for the same thing.

    Just that it is endearing that you should just have only now discovered it.

    Never previously considered myself bleeding edge before but then you pop up.

    So thanks.
    No worries. I only know about it even now because I went to Stowe with my teen daughter yesterday and I saw these weird 3 word combos on the official National Trust map and she told me what they meant. Like, hello Daddio, get with the kidz

    What I do have, however (and the rest of you, apparently, don't) is the ability to extrapolate, very fast. This has the potential to transform the way humans look at the world, and how they think about place. It is that big
    Maybe we shall see - I posted some stats earlier but one thing is true: many venture capital/PE guys have been looking at this for quite some time and I'm guessing that while none may be on PB (but who knows), they will have a very good idea of the potential growth and value opportunity. 30m downloads is not taking the world by storm, and a $250m valuation is not stratospheric for a take over the world company.

    For me it seems that the barriers to entry are low and the revenue model suspect (part coming from the rescue services which don't seem all to be convinced by the app). If they start charging then I suspect substitution will be a factor as people will discover the button on google maps all of a sudden ( @CorrectHorseBattery I just submitted feedback!)

    But yes absolutely - the guy who APPARENTLY spent six months leafing through the OED is sitting on some major part of $250m so well done him.

    I suspect a trade sale exit shortly and then it might indeed take off.
    FWIW, I agree with you regarding the revenue model. As far as I can tell, they have just two sources of revenue right now:

    (1) People - like insurance carriers - who want to do commercial lookups when a customer says "the accident happened at correct, horse, battery". And while this will generate something... the price is in the cents (or even less) per lookup. So, you need a lot of searches to generate more than negligible revenue.

    (2) Sale of vanity three letter combos. So, if you're ARM, your three letter combo might be "best, mobile, chips", or Dominic Cummings might get "fuck, you, boris". And people will pay hundreds, maybe thousands for these. The issue here is that you need widespread adoption for that three word combo to be valuable. And we're not there yet.
  • dixiedean said:

    This time last year I went to stay with friends at their new place on the coast.
    They gave me their address and w3w. I knew what it was even though I hadn't used it.
    So regular folk have been using it for quite a while.

    One of the ways I will use it quite often is if I m going to a new house on a long city road. Recently I had to find a house on Great Western Road in Aberdeen. The House number was in the 300s. Driving down a busy road trying to spot house numbers to work out where you are can be a real pain. With W3W you just drive until you get there and park up.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    On venture capital...

    https://twitter.com/ChrisJBakke/status/1556791928238342152
    The funniest transfer of wealth in modern times is the SoftBank Vision fund which took $100 billion in Saudi oil money and gave it to founders who were “reimagining salad delivery” and building coupon apps for dogs that required $2B in funding...

    ..I spent 3 years as the head of product at a company that was building DTC toothpaste for rabbits and I just paid off my $4m beach house.

    Thanks, Masa!

    It's going to be hilarious the day the oil runs out in Saudi tbh - they are shocking investors, saved by the fact they've got gazillions spouting out the ground daily.
    The oil won't ever completely run out, it will simply come out in ever diminishing quantities. Maybe one day, the very last oil well will cease to pump oil, but given how useful the stuff is - even for non-energy reasons - I suspect that will be in a very long time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,376
    dixiedean said:

    This time last year I went to stay with friends at their new place on the coast.
    They gave me their address and w3w. I knew what it was even though I hadn't used it.
    So regular folk have been using it for quite a while.

    I think it's quite good for precise locations. I know people who've struggled to use it for longer journeys to set of coordinates. I think Google or a commercial satnav are better for that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    As I explained to you, they/we did...
    No offence but you didn’t do it very well?

    I’ve often thought that Google maps should make it much easier to share precise locations

    But I never had the truly scintillating idea of breaking up the entire world into tiny memorable three word squares. That’s a truly eureka moment
    Yes. I definitely had a strong sense of, "Wow, I wish I'd thought of that," when I first came across what three words.

    Apparently one method used by people who memorise pi to a ridiculous number of digits is to remember prose writing where the character length of each word is a digit in pi. So it should have been obvious that words were an easier way to encode data than numbers, and could therefore be used to replace latitude and longitude.

    Full credit to the guy for thinking of it.
  • I forgot to tell you all about my gardening near disaster on Monday

    I was at my mate's and picking some of the lovely courgettes we've grown, and when picking one from the edge of the plant, bent down and nearly took my eye out on the cane supporting another plant.

    It hit me on the eyelid, but because my eye was open, and the angle I hit it at, it caught that bit of the eyelid on the bone just below my eyebrow. When I close my eye, the cane end imprint is just above the middle of my eyeball. I think I might have been less than a centimetre from blinding myself in that eye, or at least severely impairing its vision.

    I managed to not drip any blood on the courgettes, and then got it well cleaned up and Savlon on it. It's a little bit swollen, but I think from the trauma rather than infection as it's healing up nicely and doesn't really hurt. But it does rather look like I've lost a fight!

    Anyway, I've just been down to Waitrose and practicing my new smile on everyone, as wide as I can. I forgot about my eye. I must have looked quite crazy..

    I'm wincing just reading this. We started sticking old plastic cups on the top of canes after an incredibly similar close call. You just don't see the cane when it's where seeing it matters.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022

    How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,873
    edited August 2022

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    And all any competitor needs or indeed Google need to do is replace:

    51°30'28.7"N 0°09'39.8"W
    51.507980, -0.161044

    with

    Apple.Banana.Marrow

    for the GUI.

    That would mean Google purchasing W3W for lots of money. They can't just copy it because there's all kinds of IP associated they'd be violating. I can't imagine W3W would sell for less than a billion.
    Well w3w (as per @Leon's post) has a link to the satnav service of your choice but the fact remains that Google Maps has all the functionality of w3w so it wouldn't take a huge copyright violation to make, say, the buttons big and red and easy to use for example.

    GoogleFind.

    They can have that one for free.
    No, it would be because plus codes are not the same at all. As Leon has been pointing out the beauty of w3w is that you can tell people a location name with three words. That's the IP value and Google would need to buy it from them.
    There is a reason we didn't make it exactly the same.

    I think w3w is superior - I just am objecting to the idea Google doesn't have something similar
    It's close. In Quebec

    https://what3words.com/correct.horses.battery

    I guess no horse because of hoarse
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507

    darkage said:

    Why are people not fleeing the high tax Nordic states?

    Which high tax Nordic states do you have in mind?

    Many did which is why the Nordic states have reversed high tax policies that backfired.

    Many Nordic states have higher but flatter tax rates without the 'NYC skyline' peaks and troughs of cliff edges we have in this country. Higher taxes is something I disagree with politically, though higher but flatter taxes are fairer for me than trapping many people in even higher marginal tax rates like we do in this country.
    In my experience (Finland), the taxes are higher for the lower paid because you always have to pay a flat municipal tax of around 20%. What this means in practice is that wages are higher for the lower paid, so it is harder to run a small business, and prices are higher than the UK, but not so much nowadays given the weak euro.

    Generally the services are much better. Massive swimming pools, beautiful parks and gardens and public squares, awesome libraries, fantastic public transport, cycle lanes, world beating schools etc.

    There doesn't seem to be an industry of small accountants. You just go to the tax office and do what you are told.

    There is something quite liberating and enterprising about the UK and its enormous complexity, loopholes and general inequality.
    20% tax for the lower paid, if that is what it is, is of course considerably lower than the 70% HMRC charges the lower paid, once you add up the main taxes and taper etc together.

    DavidL said:

    This is something that will damage Liz Truss, I remember a pollster telling me Martin Lewis had astronomical trust figures with the public, compared to the gutter most politicians were found in.

    Liz Truss has been urged to ditch “outrageous” claims that tax cuts will deal with energy price rises after she continued to hold out against immediate help with bills yesterday.

    Martin Lewis, the money-saving expert, said the frontrunner to become prime minister must set out detailed plans this month and offered to help draw them up as he warned that the energy crisis risked civil unrest and deaths from hypothermia this winter.

    Rishi Sunak, who is Truss’s rival in the Tory leadership race, must also commit himself to doubling the package he set out as chancellor in May, Lewis said. He accused the Conservative Party of neglecting a “financial cataclysm” that would push millions into destitution.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/savings-guru-martin-lewis-criticises-liz-truss-as-4-400-energy-bills-forecast-qjj5wnkm3

    There's a reason why scammers use the image of Martin Lewis to try and entice people to hand their money over to them, people trust him on things like this.

    I am afraid that Martin Lewis is being completely unrealistic here. How can the government pay everyone's increase in their heating bills? It is completely and utterly unsustainable. What needs to be done is to protect the vulnerable. The rest of us will just have to pay more for our fuel until the price comes down again. Sunak's plans for the first increase was frankly terrible policy and should not be repeated or augmented.
    True, in which case tax cuts are worse than useless. The nature of tax cuts is to help those who have more, more.

    Rough ballpark for what has to happen is that the bottom third will need a lot, if not complete help with this. That means the £1000 support going up to close to £2500. We're talking people who don't have £2500 spare. That's not happing by tax cuts.
    Alternatively reducing taxation encourages those who don't have much to be able to work to get more, so paying their bills and having more afterwards.

    Ratcheting up taxes on those who are working for a living in order to further swell the welfare state isn't the only option.
    The tragedy is that so much of the welfare bill is the state subsidising the profits of Asda etc. Companies refused to pay decent wages, so faced with millions working and still living in penury Gordon Brown came up with Working Tax Credits.

    I support a "what works" approach to most things, but despite working short term this hasn't worked long term. The right approach would have been to offer companies corporation tax cuts if they pay appropriate wages. Instead, CTax has collapsed down to 19% with companies not required to do anything in return for it.

    So there is no way back now. Companies won't pay a living wage because why should they. Government has no leverage any more other than demonise working people as "claiming benefits". No, that would be their employers.
    Sorry but that's utter codswallop. A full time 37.5h worker even on the legal minimum 'living wage' of £9.50 per hour is earning over £18.5k per annum and is paying a lot in tax including national insurance and employers national insurance which is a hidden tax on wages. And without kids a couple working full time even on minimum wage aren't entitled to tax credits/universal credit.

    Tax credits wasn't set up to deal with low wages, the "minimum wage" was set up to deal with that, it was pure welfare. Asda etc aren't going to pay for someone who is working only 16 hours per week to support lots of children, if you want the state to do that then argue for that, don't claim its corporate welfare. Asda didn't choose to get pregnant and have kids.
    If a worker, full time, on £9.50 per hour sees an income tax cut from 20% to 16%, they will be better off to the tune of £4.58 per week.

    (assume 37.5 hours per week, 52 weeks paid = £18,525 per annum. Currently pays £22.90 income tax per week and £15.17 NI per week)

    That won't be the hugest of benefits.
    Ah the classic way to minimise a number you're not keen on, divide it per week.

    £4.58 per week may not sound much to you, though at £238 per year it might sound a bit more, despite being the same number. Another way of looking at it is that the individual is taking home half an hour per week extra overtime for free in the post-tax pay packet every week. Its even more considering that tax, NI, taper if applicable etc would apply to any overtime. That's not something to turn your nose down upon.
    It ain't touching the side of the cost of living crisis.
    That's the point.

    A saving of under a fiver a week, or about twenty quid a month, or £238 per year isn't going to help with fuel bills, or increased cost of food.

    Probably "per month" would be the best way to do it, because they're not going to get to make the saving over a year before needing to spend it, are they?

    I can't see it being the best way to get money into peoples' pockets (for those at the lower levels of earnings) for the CoL crisis, unless it's more of a CoL minor kerfuffle.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
  • DavidL said:

    On other happier news I got asked permission today to consent to my daughter getting married.

    Sadly he wasn't interested in a 3 for 1 deal on the others.

    Congratulations.
  • darkage said:

    Why are people not fleeing the high tax Nordic states?

    Which high tax Nordic states do you have in mind?

    Many did which is why the Nordic states have reversed high tax policies that backfired.

    Many Nordic states have higher but flatter tax rates without the 'NYC skyline' peaks and troughs of cliff edges we have in this country. Higher taxes is something I disagree with politically, though higher but flatter taxes are fairer for me than trapping many people in even higher marginal tax rates like we do in this country.
    In my experience (Finland), the taxes are higher for the lower paid because you always have to pay a flat municipal tax of around 20%. What this means in practice is that wages are higher for the lower paid, so it is harder to run a small business, and prices are higher than the UK, but not so much nowadays given the weak euro.

    Generally the services are much better. Massive swimming pools, beautiful parks and gardens and public squares, awesome libraries, fantastic public transport, cycle lanes, world beating schools etc.

    There doesn't seem to be an industry of small accountants. You just go to the tax office and do what you are told.

    There is something quite liberating and enterprising about the UK and its enormous complexity, loopholes and general inequality.
    20% tax for the lower paid, if that is what it is, is of course considerably lower than the 70% HMRC charges the lower paid, once you add up the main taxes and taper etc together.

    DavidL said:

    This is something that will damage Liz Truss, I remember a pollster telling me Martin Lewis had astronomical trust figures with the public, compared to the gutter most politicians were found in.

    Liz Truss has been urged to ditch “outrageous” claims that tax cuts will deal with energy price rises after she continued to hold out against immediate help with bills yesterday.

    Martin Lewis, the money-saving expert, said the frontrunner to become prime minister must set out detailed plans this month and offered to help draw them up as he warned that the energy crisis risked civil unrest and deaths from hypothermia this winter.

    Rishi Sunak, who is Truss’s rival in the Tory leadership race, must also commit himself to doubling the package he set out as chancellor in May, Lewis said. He accused the Conservative Party of neglecting a “financial cataclysm” that would push millions into destitution.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/savings-guru-martin-lewis-criticises-liz-truss-as-4-400-energy-bills-forecast-qjj5wnkm3

    There's a reason why scammers use the image of Martin Lewis to try and entice people to hand their money over to them, people trust him on things like this.

    I am afraid that Martin Lewis is being completely unrealistic here. How can the government pay everyone's increase in their heating bills? It is completely and utterly unsustainable. What needs to be done is to protect the vulnerable. The rest of us will just have to pay more for our fuel until the price comes down again. Sunak's plans for the first increase was frankly terrible policy and should not be repeated or augmented.
    True, in which case tax cuts are worse than useless. The nature of tax cuts is to help those who have more, more.

    Rough ballpark for what has to happen is that the bottom third will need a lot, if not complete help with this. That means the £1000 support going up to close to £2500. We're talking people who don't have £2500 spare. That's not happing by tax cuts.
    Alternatively reducing taxation encourages those who don't have much to be able to work to get more, so paying their bills and having more afterwards.

    Ratcheting up taxes on those who are working for a living in order to further swell the welfare state isn't the only option.
    The tragedy is that so much of the welfare bill is the state subsidising the profits of Asda etc. Companies refused to pay decent wages, so faced with millions working and still living in penury Gordon Brown came up with Working Tax Credits.

    I support a "what works" approach to most things, but despite working short term this hasn't worked long term. The right approach would have been to offer companies corporation tax cuts if they pay appropriate wages. Instead, CTax has collapsed down to 19% with companies not required to do anything in return for it.

    So there is no way back now. Companies won't pay a living wage because why should they. Government has no leverage any more other than demonise working people as "claiming benefits". No, that would be their employers.
    Sorry but that's utter codswallop. A full time 37.5h worker even on the legal minimum 'living wage' of £9.50 per hour is earning over £18.5k per annum and is paying a lot in tax including national insurance and employers national insurance which is a hidden tax on wages. And without kids a couple working full time even on minimum wage aren't entitled to tax credits/universal credit.

    Tax credits wasn't set up to deal with low wages, the "minimum wage" was set up to deal with that, it was pure welfare. Asda etc aren't going to pay for someone who is working only 16 hours per week to support lots of children, if you want the state to do that then argue for that, don't claim its corporate welfare. Asda didn't choose to get pregnant and have kids.
    If a worker, full time, on £9.50 per hour sees an income tax cut from 20% to 16%, they will be better off to the tune of £4.58 per week.

    (assume 37.5 hours per week, 52 weeks paid = £18,525 per annum. Currently pays £22.90 income tax per week and £15.17 NI per week)

    That won't be the hugest of benefits.
    Ah the classic way to minimise a number you're not keen on, divide it per week.

    £4.58 per week may not sound much to you, though at £238 per year it might sound a bit more, despite being the same number. Another way of looking at it is that the individual is taking home half an hour per week extra overtime for free in the post-tax pay packet every week. Its even more considering that tax, NI, taper if applicable etc would apply to any overtime. That's not something to turn your nose down upon.
    It ain't touching the side of the cost of living crisis.
    That's the point.

    A saving of under a fiver a week, or about twenty quid a month, or £238 per year isn't going to help with fuel bills, or increased cost of food.

    Probably "per month" would be the best way to do it, because they're not going to get to make the saving over a year before needing to spend it, are they?

    I can't see it being the best way to get money into peoples' pockets (for those at the lower levels of earnings) for the CoL crisis, unless it's more of a CoL minor kerfuffle.
    Reducing taxes isn't a sole fix to the CoL but it helps. There is no realistic fix for the CoL crisis in one go, no magic wand, and anyone pretending there is or there should be is trying to set people up for a fall. But that doesn't mean extra take-home pay from lower taxes isn't a good thing and doesn't help.

    My preferred fix is for wages to go up more than prices over time, if taxes go down and wages go up then the benefit from reduced taxes only goes up over time too.
  • https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-to-make-series-of-cost-of-living-interventions

    Labour Is Finally Preparing Some Cost-Of-Living Policy Proposals As Energy Crisis Escalates
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,712
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    On other happier news I got asked permission today to consent to my daughter getting married.

    Sadly he wasn't interested in a 3 for 1 deal on the others.

    Congratulations, Sir.

    Also, one of the scariest moments in a young man’s life. I had to do it by formally translated letter.
    I asked my intended's father in his garden and he was so chuffed I had to stop him from rushing in and cracking open the champagne for us all to enjoy by reminding him him that I hadn't actually asked his daughter yet.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022

    How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
  • Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    Some of the programming for what3words was done by an employee of www.betdata.io . This site uses betdata graphs and they even had an article published here once. An american logistics company invested in w3w at the time I was renting a desk from them in Bond Street.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507

    darkage said:

    Why are people not fleeing the high tax Nordic states?

    Which high tax Nordic states do you have in mind?

    Many did which is why the Nordic states have reversed high tax policies that backfired.

    Many Nordic states have higher but flatter tax rates without the 'NYC skyline' peaks and troughs of cliff edges we have in this country. Higher taxes is something I disagree with politically, though higher but flatter taxes are fairer for me than trapping many people in even higher marginal tax rates like we do in this country.
    In my experience (Finland), the taxes are higher for the lower paid because you always have to pay a flat municipal tax of around 20%. What this means in practice is that wages are higher for the lower paid, so it is harder to run a small business, and prices are higher than the UK, but not so much nowadays given the weak euro.

    Generally the services are much better. Massive swimming pools, beautiful parks and gardens and public squares, awesome libraries, fantastic public transport, cycle lanes, world beating schools etc.

    There doesn't seem to be an industry of small accountants. You just go to the tax office and do what you are told.

    There is something quite liberating and enterprising about the UK and its enormous complexity, loopholes and general inequality.
    20% tax for the lower paid, if that is what it is, is of course considerably lower than the 70% HMRC charges the lower paid, once you add up the main taxes and taper etc together.

    DavidL said:

    This is something that will damage Liz Truss, I remember a pollster telling me Martin Lewis had astronomical trust figures with the public, compared to the gutter most politicians were found in.

    Liz Truss has been urged to ditch “outrageous” claims that tax cuts will deal with energy price rises after she continued to hold out against immediate help with bills yesterday.

    Martin Lewis, the money-saving expert, said the frontrunner to become prime minister must set out detailed plans this month and offered to help draw them up as he warned that the energy crisis risked civil unrest and deaths from hypothermia this winter.

    Rishi Sunak, who is Truss’s rival in the Tory leadership race, must also commit himself to doubling the package he set out as chancellor in May, Lewis said. He accused the Conservative Party of neglecting a “financial cataclysm” that would push millions into destitution.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/savings-guru-martin-lewis-criticises-liz-truss-as-4-400-energy-bills-forecast-qjj5wnkm3

    There's a reason why scammers use the image of Martin Lewis to try and entice people to hand their money over to them, people trust him on things like this.

    I am afraid that Martin Lewis is being completely unrealistic here. How can the government pay everyone's increase in their heating bills? It is completely and utterly unsustainable. What needs to be done is to protect the vulnerable. The rest of us will just have to pay more for our fuel until the price comes down again. Sunak's plans for the first increase was frankly terrible policy and should not be repeated or augmented.
    True, in which case tax cuts are worse than useless. The nature of tax cuts is to help those who have more, more.

    Rough ballpark for what has to happen is that the bottom third will need a lot, if not complete help with this. That means the £1000 support going up to close to £2500. We're talking people who don't have £2500 spare. That's not happing by tax cuts.
    Alternatively reducing taxation encourages those who don't have much to be able to work to get more, so paying their bills and having more afterwards.

    Ratcheting up taxes on those who are working for a living in order to further swell the welfare state isn't the only option.
    The tragedy is that so much of the welfare bill is the state subsidising the profits of Asda etc. Companies refused to pay decent wages, so faced with millions working and still living in penury Gordon Brown came up with Working Tax Credits.

    I support a "what works" approach to most things, but despite working short term this hasn't worked long term. The right approach would have been to offer companies corporation tax cuts if they pay appropriate wages. Instead, CTax has collapsed down to 19% with companies not required to do anything in return for it.

    So there is no way back now. Companies won't pay a living wage because why should they. Government has no leverage any more other than demonise working people as "claiming benefits". No, that would be their employers.
    Sorry but that's utter codswallop. A full time 37.5h worker even on the legal minimum 'living wage' of £9.50 per hour is earning over £18.5k per annum and is paying a lot in tax including national insurance and employers national insurance which is a hidden tax on wages. And without kids a couple working full time even on minimum wage aren't entitled to tax credits/universal credit.

    Tax credits wasn't set up to deal with low wages, the "minimum wage" was set up to deal with that, it was pure welfare. Asda etc aren't going to pay for someone who is working only 16 hours per week to support lots of children, if you want the state to do that then argue for that, don't claim its corporate welfare. Asda didn't choose to get pregnant and have kids.
    If a worker, full time, on £9.50 per hour sees an income tax cut from 20% to 16%, they will be better off to the tune of £4.58 per week.

    (assume 37.5 hours per week, 52 weeks paid = £18,525 per annum. Currently pays £22.90 income tax per week and £15.17 NI per week)

    That won't be the hugest of benefits.
    Ah the classic way to minimise a number you're not keen on, divide it per week.

    £4.58 per week may not sound much to you, though at £238 per year it might sound a bit more, despite being the same number. Another way of looking at it is that the individual is taking home half an hour per week extra overtime for free in the post-tax pay packet every week. Its even more considering that tax, NI, taper if applicable etc would apply to any overtime. That's not something to turn your nose down upon.
    It ain't touching the side of the cost of living crisis.
    That's the point.

    A saving of under a fiver a week, or about twenty quid a month, or £238 per year isn't going to help with fuel bills, or increased cost of food.

    Probably "per month" would be the best way to do it, because they're not going to get to make the saving over a year before needing to spend it, are they?

    I can't see it being the best way to get money into peoples' pockets (for those at the lower levels of earnings) for the CoL crisis, unless it's more of a CoL minor kerfuffle.
    Reducing taxes isn't a sole fix to the CoL but it helps. There is no realistic fix for the CoL crisis in one go, no magic wand, and anyone pretending there is or there should be is trying to set people up for a fall. But that doesn't mean extra take-home pay from lower taxes isn't a good thing and doesn't help.

    My preferred fix is for wages to go up more than prices over time, if taxes go down and wages go up then the benefit from reduced taxes only goes up over time too.
    Of course it helps, but when we're looking at a near-term and short-term big impact, a few quid per week, while always welcome, isn't going to come anywhere near helping.

    Well, it'd help more those on higher incomes - if you max out your basic rate allowance, you save more than six times as much. If we look at monthly savings, to avoid your dislike of weekly figures but retain the "we need this now rather than in a year" issue, the full time minimum-wage person gets back £19.83 per month to help with their skyrocketing energy bills, increased fuel costs, and food prices.

    The one who's got an income past £50k gets back £125 per month. Which could be enough to help noticeably.

    Solution-wise, we can't wait years for wages to increase, because people are going to be in the shit this winter. And, hopefully, the circumstances causing the current crisis will get resolved.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Dominic Sibley is scoring at more than four an over in the Lions match against South Africa at Canterbury. Dominic Sibley!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,172
    edited August 2022

    How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
    And in the past month the polling has shown a significant swing towards Truss, with her going from net hated in the polls to now some polls saying she'd be preferred over Starmer.

    So if that isn't evidence, what is?
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
    And in the past month the polling has shown a significant swing towards Truss, with her going from net hated in the polls to now some polls saying she'd be preferred over Starmer.

    So if that isn't evidence, what is?
    Within MoE she's tying Starmer, hence me not betting on a Tory win. It may change
  • Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
    And in the past month the polling has shown a significant swing towards Truss, with her going from net hated in the polls to now some polls saying she'd be preferred over Starmer.

    So if that isn't evidence, what is?
    Within MoE she's tying Starmer, hence me not betting on a Tory win. It may change
    Within MoE Labour are tying the Tories and you keep proclaiming that as evidence of Starmer's genius since Labour were previously massively behind in the polls. Well the same thing should surely apply in reverse, only a few weeks ago Truss was massively behind Starmer in the polls, now she's tying him. Should that closing of the gap not be counted as evidence in her favour by the same logic as Starmer deserves credit in your eyes for closing the gap?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,019

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating interview with the guy who founded what3words, and had the basic idea

    He really put in the hours


    "He grabbed a dictionary and began the painstaking process of copying every word into an Excel spreadsheet and assigning each one a score out of ten for its suitability for use within the app, with common, easy to spell words given the highest marks and trickier, rarer words given lower ratings. “I did it every day for six months. It makes you notice how long the dictionary actually is,” he says. “I was living on my friend’s sofa at the time. And he was certainly confused. But I think he also admired my persistence.”"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-what3words-revolutionise-the-way-we-navigate-the-world-tt0706nnv


    This company is going to EXPLODE

    He did it by hand? Mad.

    You can access dictionaries online. With a python script I daresay. And then you can use a Soundex function to work out which ones sound similar, and how many characters they differ by, etc.

    Why would you do that by hand? By hand?
    For a $500m cheque from google by the sound of it

    ///if.you.are

    ///so.smart.how

    ///come.you.aren't

    ///RICH! RICH! RICH?
    Likewise, all the PB-ers telling us "oh I knew about W3W in 2017"

    Well then why didn't you bloody tell us? Because it's obviously a genius idea and we could all have invested money and now we'd all be sitting back waiting for Google to give us £2m for our shares

    Chiz
    First recorded mention of "what3words" on PB.com. August 2019.

    Gallowgate Posts: 18,380
    August 2019
    Has anyone seen this new ‘what3words’ thing which is like post codes for the 21st Century? The whole world is split up into 3mx3m grid with 3 unique words for each one. It’s very interesting. 10 Downing Street is drum.larger.occupy ...


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2444562#Comment_2444562
    Jan 2020

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2695633#Comment_2695633
  • Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
    And in the past month the polling has shown a significant swing towards Truss, with her going from net hated in the polls to now some polls saying she'd be preferred over Starmer.

    So if that isn't evidence, what is?
    Within MoE she's tying Starmer, hence me not betting on a Tory win. It may change
    Within MoE Labour are tying the Tories and you keep proclaiming that as evidence of Starmer's genius since Labour were previously massively behind in the polls. Well the same thing should surely apply in reverse, only a few weeks ago Truss was massively behind Starmer in the polls, now she's tying him. Should that closing of the gap not be counted as evidence in her favour by the same logic as Starmer deserves credit in your eyes for closing the gap?
    No they aren't.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,401
    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Scott_xP said:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.

    Surprised he isn't in on this...

    Why should hard-working taxpayers in my constituency have to pay for an academic to write about his experiences masturbating to Japanese porn?

    The non-STEM side of higher education is just much too big, producing too much that is not socially useful.


    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14687941221096600 https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1557236449786957824/photo/1
    Someone I know in academia has reported that academic to police for child abuse on the basis of what they wrote in the journal article.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,019
    Anyway, my earlier (Jan 2020) post about my new phone at the time, a Xiaomi Poco f1 (thanks still OGH for the steer) has reminded me that I need a new phone. I'm currently looking at the Redmi Note 10 Pro - £160 for what seems a perfectly decent phone. Critically it isn't Apple so that's a huge plus.
  • How has Truss been underestimated, to me she seems to be as useless as I thought she would be

    Not long ago she was 5/1 to be next Tory leader or worse, with myself it seemed the only one supporting her on this site (and even I wanted Rishi to win, for my bet, even though I said all along I would prefer Truss) yet now she seems almost nailed on to be next Prime Minister.

    People were dismissing her as no chance, that her colleagues wouldn't support her - yet she made it through the MP round and now has Mordaunt etc backing her too who didn't count in the last round so has probably I'm guessing got more MPs backing her now than Sunak does.

    You only consider her "useless" because she's a Tory and she's winning. That's not useless.
    I consider her to be useless because she has no ideas on CoL, she's gaffe prone and a bit thick.

    I was bang on about Johnson - and how it would end. I get a very similar idea about her. We will see.

    You like her because she's a Tory but even you can't admit there's much evidence she's going to destroy Starmer.
    I don't like her because she's a Tory, Sunak's a Tory and I had £5000 riding on him but I dislike him as he put up National Insurance.

    I like Truss as she's promised to cut National Insurance back down, fixing Sunak's mistake.

    I actually believe in policies and not just parties. I fervently believe that raising NI was a bad thing.

    That's why I quit when Sunak and Boris did that, despite having been a Boris fan until that point, and that's why I have no vote in this leadership contest. If Truss reneges on her commitment to reverse the NI hike then she would instantly lose my support too and deserve to lose it. If Truss follows through on the promises that mean I am supporting her, then she will deserve my support.

    Whether she beats Starmer is another question. Quite frankly, its not my priority. The party has been in power for 12 years already, I'd rather the party lose the next election than win it with Sunak putting up NI.
    I am interested from a betting POV whether she beats Starmer. Seeing little evidence right now.

    Labour minority remains my central forecast
    From a betting PoV I'm wondering who'll be next Prime Minister. On that, it seems the betting was definitely underestimating Truss even if you won't admit it.

    From a betting PoV Truss has overtaken Starmer as favourite for leader after the next election, is that not "evidence" in your eyes or is "evidence" only the Tory leader saying and doing everything you'd want a Labour PM to do?

    Anyone trying to predict the result of the next election before the next PM has even had their first Budget at the very least is playing a mugs game.
    I don't take the markets as evidence of much, I look at polling
    And in the past month the polling has shown a significant swing towards Truss, with her going from net hated in the polls to now some polls saying she'd be preferred over Starmer.

    So if that isn't evidence, what is?
    Within MoE she's tying Starmer, hence me not betting on a Tory win. It may change
    Within MoE Labour are tying the Tories and you keep proclaiming that as evidence of Starmer's genius since Labour were previously massively behind in the polls. Well the same thing should surely apply in reverse, only a few weeks ago Truss was massively behind Starmer in the polls, now she's tying him. Should that closing of the gap not be counted as evidence in her favour by the same logic as Starmer deserves credit in your eyes for closing the gap?
    No they aren't.
    Going off Wikipedia's list, they're within MoE for the most recent survey for every pollster to have conducted a poll within the past fortnight (four out of four).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Mark M Bathgate
    @m_bathgate
    ·
    1h
    UK wholesale natural gas prices for winter soaring again - the move today alone would add almost £150 to the average household bill.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    If you can install enough solar panels and a large enough battery then you're probably okay with that for the length of power cuts that are most likely, but the thing I'd most want to check is how robust your internet connection is. Do you know how the mobile masts are powered? Will the broadband keep working if there's a power cut in the area?

    I guess this depends on how important an always-up connection is for you to work - perhaps you can mostly work offline and submit work later - but you might want to think about that too. I think something like starlink would be most robust.
  • As SKS isn't favourite, surely our resident Political Betting Starmtroopers must be piling in on him now. They can't possibly believe that Honest Keir could lose to Lyin' Liz?

    I guess that, even though they like him, they know that they're not inspired by him. Who could be by Sir Weary Dreary Keir?

    At least he's not scary. Like Corbyn. I mean, Starmer has been really sound on supporting the government on Ukraine. I can't be as confident that he'd continue support, rather than switching to supporting a settlement that Ukraine isn't keen on, as I am with Truss. But I still think it's likely he'd do the right thing

    I don't care that he broke his leadership promises, as I won't with Truss. I didn't vote in either election which makes it easier to be dispassionate about that. That won't stop me reminding Labour people about Honest Keir's Broken Pledges. Nor will how impressed I am by how he's de-Corbynating the Labour Party stop me from reminding people that he twice campaigned hard for Jez to be PM

    Politics is tough. I'm not sure Keir's up to it. Liz might just be.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    You can get some pretty good silent running genies. I would go look at MOD surplus sales as they regularly have them on there.

    One question for the tech bods out there. How robust are the UK broadband and cellphone networks as far as powercuts are concerned. Assuming you have the backup power in your own house to keep your kit going, will broadband and cellphone networks still be operational without power?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 576

    Scott_xP said:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.

    Surprised he isn't in on this...

    Why should hard-working taxpayers in my constituency have to pay for an academic to write about his experiences masturbating to Japanese porn?

    The non-STEM side of higher education is just much too big, producing too much that is not socially useful.


    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14687941221096600 https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1557236449786957824/photo/1
    Someone I know in academia has reported that academic to police for child abuse on the basis of what they wrote in the journal article.
    I'm generally a live and let live type, or so I like to think, and thought that why not, surely there is something to be gleaned from engaging in the pornography of another culture from an ethnographic point of view. I often dislike how some on the right dismiss knowledge because they find it's subject matter trivial or laughable.

    Then I read the abstract. With no desire to read the rest of the journal article, I'm not surprised they have been reported to the police.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,175
    edited August 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    If you’ve got a grand to drop these are meant to be pretty good. A heater would hit it hard though. You can get smaller capacity ones for less money. Other manufacturers do similar things, do a bit of Googling. You can get solar panels to charge them too, but they’re like £500 or summat daft. EDIT the panels are £270. Not so bad.

    https://uk.jackery.com/products/explorer-1000-portable-power-station

  • Daily Mail tried to cancel Joe Lycett lol
  • Daily Mail tried to cancel Joe Lycett lol

    I can’t imagine anything better for Joe Lycett
  • kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    You can get some pretty good silent running genies. I would go look at MOD surplus sales as they regularly have them on there.

    One question for the tech bods out there. How robust are the UK broadband and cellphone networks as far as powercuts are concerned. Assuming you have the backup power in your own house to keep your kit going, will broadband and cellphone networks still be operational without power?
    Well you're fecked if you're on VOIP but your BB will not work without a power supply.

    As for the mobile networks, it depends if your local masts have a backup generator.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,401
    Scott_xP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
    Separate circuits. If the power goes out, it's no biggie to go to the garage, pull out the generator and switch it on.

    Ultimately, I'm paid by the day, and if having no power means I have to run a generator for the day (cost £20 in petrol) it's worth it when my day rate is £500.

    If it was just me, I'd sit in the dark with a candle and whistle. But being without power for 24 hours or more would significantly impact my consultancy business.

    Of course as LostPassword points out, it's not much use if I can't upload the work due to 4g being out (though I'm fairly sure the mast nearest to me has a diesel backup, on account of it being housed atop a large supermarket, which would have a backup generator).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    He reason I didn't tell you about What3Words when I learnt aboutbhem is that they are a bunch of notoriously litigious dicks with dubious promotional strategies.

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    As I explained to you, they/we did...
    No offence but you didn’t do it very well?

    I’ve often thought that Google maps should make it much easier to share precise locations

    But I never had the truly scintillating idea of breaking up the entire world into tiny memorable three word squares. That’s a truly eureka moment
    Yes. I definitely had a strong sense of, "Wow, I wish I'd thought of that," when I first came across what three words.

    Apparently one method used by people who memorise pi to a ridiculous number of digits is to remember prose writing where the character length of each word is a digit in pi. So it should have been obvious that words were an easier way to encode data than numbers, and could therefore be used to replace latitude and longitude.

    Full credit to the guy for thinking of it.
    https://patents.stackexchange.com/questions/13629/i-had-invented-and-published-before-this-patent-application-how-do-i-get-it-in
  • kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
    Separate circuits. If the power goes out, it's no biggie to go to the garage, pull out the generator and switch it on.

    Ultimately, I'm paid by the day, and if having no power means I have to run a generator for the day (cost £20 in petrol) it's worth it when my day rate is £500.

    If it was just me, I'd sit in the dark with a candle and whistle. But being without power for 24 hours or more would significantly impact my consultancy business.

    Of course as LostPassword points out, it's not much use if I can't upload the work due to 4g being out (though I'm fairly sure the mast nearest to me has a diesel backup, on account of it being housed atop a large supermarket, which would have a backup generator).
    What do you do
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    If you’ve got a grand to drop these are meant to be pretty good. A heater would hit it hard though. You can get smaller capacity ones for less money. Other manufacturers do similar things, do a bit of Googling. You can get solar panels to charge them too, but they’re like £500 or summat daft. EDIT the panels are £270. Not so bad.

    https://uk.jackery.com/products/explorer-1000-portable-power-station

    The problem is that in winter, it is highly likely that there won't be much direct sunshine, so your battery is probably not going to get fully charged during the day.

    If you want genuinely reliable power, get a little diesel generator (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Böhmer-AG-Petrol-Inverter-Generator-i-5000W/dp/B07ZNZT86H/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=diesel+generator+240v&qid=1660146764&sprefix=diesel+gen,aps,214&sr=8-2). It's only a couple of hundred quid, and they're pretty efficient.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    edited August 2022
    Going off-grid sounds quite enticing at the moment. Getting away from the corporations and all their nonsense. I wouldn't miss anything they've been responsible for.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    You can get some pretty good silent running genies. I would go look at MOD surplus sales as they regularly have them on there.

    One question for the tech bods out there. How robust are the UK broadband and cellphone networks as far as powercuts are concerned. Assuming you have the backup power in your own house to keep your kit going, will broadband and cellphone networks still be operational without power?
    They're pretty good, but not perfect. Pretty much all the cellphone infrastructure in the UK is battery backed up, and so long as power is intermittantly available, you will continue to be able to get access.
  • Today’s rather impressive haul

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    NEW from @IpsosUK: Public think a Labour govt led by Starmer more likely than a Con govt led by Truss to deliver in 12 / 13 areas.

    Biggest leads for Starmer's Labour on improving public services (+13), reducing NHS waiting times (+12), levelling up (+12), fresh start (+10) https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1557393041501175808/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    Truss camp earlier: “Sunak wouldn’t know how people benefit from a tax cut because he has never cut a tax in his life.

    “People didn’t vote for the Conservatives to be subjected to old fashioned Gordon Brown style politics of envy."

    Looks like that hurt as he's now gone tonto.


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1557394098197340161
  • Scott_xP said:

    NEW from @IpsosUK: Public think a Labour govt led by Starmer more likely than a Con govt led by Truss to deliver in 12 / 13 areas.

    Biggest leads for Starmer's Labour on improving public services (+13), reducing NHS waiting times (+12), levelling up (+12), fresh start (+10) https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1557393041501175808/photo/1

    Oh well useless dud Starmer strikes again
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,401

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
    Separate circuits. If the power goes out, it's no biggie to go to the garage, pull out the generator and switch it on.

    Ultimately, I'm paid by the day, and if having no power means I have to run a generator for the day (cost £20 in petrol) it's worth it when my day rate is £500.

    If it was just me, I'd sit in the dark with a candle and whistle. But being without power for 24 hours or more would significantly impact my consultancy business.

    Of course as LostPassword points out, it's not much use if I can't upload the work due to 4g being out (though I'm fairly sure the mast nearest to me has a diesel backup, on account of it being housed atop a large supermarket, which would have a backup generator).
    What do you do
    Management consultancy... boring as hell but the main problem is clients are very geographically distributed at the moment. Being unable to say, dial in to a teams call for the company in the US that has been paying my wages the last couple of months because of a 48 hour blackout would potentially ruin the relationship and destroy a long term revenue stream.

    As I will be working from home all winter, it's pretty important to me to be able to keep the lights on, the internet going, and at least one room in the house warm enough to work.

    I realise it's probably not the most critical job in the world but it's my livelihood.
  • Does anyone watch Grayson Perry's Art Club and know about Alice Rhubarb and the Face Of Waste?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Alright, PB brains trust. If we can tear ourselves away from what.three.words.

    I'm freelancing/working from home at the minute so no power = no work = no get paid.

    Increasingly of the opinion that there will be blackouts this winter and looking for a cheap solution to enable me to carry on working.

    I already have a backup battery thingy that will give me a couple of charges or so on my laptop, but that is not much good if I am so cold I can't work.

    So what is the cheapest way to blackout-proof myself for the coming winter? At a bare minimum, I would need to be able to run a 500w heater, a 60w laptop charger, a light and 4g router (unless I tether off my phone, which would then also need a charger).

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    If you’ve got a grand to drop these are meant to be pretty good. A heater would hit it hard though. You can get smaller capacity ones for less money. Other manufacturers do similar things, do a bit of Googling. You can get solar panels to charge them too, but they’re like £500 or summat daft. EDIT the panels are £270. Not so bad.

    https://uk.jackery.com/products/explorer-1000-portable-power-station

    The problem is that in winter, it is highly likely that there won't be much direct sunshine, so your battery is probably not going to get fully charged during the day.

    If you want genuinely reliable power, get a little diesel generator (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Böhmer-AG-Petrol-Inverter-Generator-i-5000W/dp/B07ZNZT86H/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=diesel+generator+240v&qid=1660146764&sprefix=diesel+gen,aps,214&sr=8-2). It's only a couple of hundred quid, and they're pretty efficient.
    Do devices like this have to be run outside? Presumably with a wire for the power through an open window into the house?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    edited August 2022

    Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
    You can all bang on all you like about "oh I was into What 3 Words in 2014", or "a big foldy map of Yorkshire is much easier to use", but the fact is you are all spectrumy dullards who failed to notice 1. its conceptual potential and 2, how explosive this could be, and thus, how sensible it would be to invest in W3W right this moment

    That's why you need a hysteric like me on here. To "lose my shit" over and over again, and bang on about things for days on end, so you actually wake up to what is in front of you. eg If only we'd had a dude regularly losing his shit about this new virus in China in say, February 2020, we'd have been better warned
  • Starmer leads Truss and Sunak with IPSOS
  • Leon said:

    Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
    You can all bang on all you like about "oh I was into What 3 Words in 2014", or "a big foldy map of Yorkshire is much easier to use", but the fact is you are all spectrumy dullards who failed to notice 1. its conceptual potential and 2, how explosive this could be, and thus, how sensible it would be to invest in W3W right this moment

    That's why you need a hysteric like me on here. To "lose my shit" over and over again, and bang on about things for days on end, so you actually wake up to what is in front of you. eg If only we'd had a dude regularly losing his shit about this new virus in China in say, February 2020, we'd have been better warned
    No it's not that it's just that you insist Google doesn't have it when I wrote the feature
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Alistair said:

    He reason I didn't tell you about What3Words when I learnt aboutbhem is that they are a bunch of notoriously litigious dicks with dubious promotional strategies.

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m using W3W right this very minute. To tell one of my kids where exactly I’m parked so we can go to the vet

    ///fucking.genius.idea

    It is amazing that Google didn’t do this first, or make Google maps much easier to use in this way

    As I explained to you, they/we did...
    No offence but you didn’t do it very well?

    I’ve often thought that Google maps should make it much easier to share precise locations

    But I never had the truly scintillating idea of breaking up the entire world into tiny memorable three word squares. That’s a truly eureka moment
    Yes. I definitely had a strong sense of, "Wow, I wish I'd thought of that," when I first came across what three words.

    Apparently one method used by people who memorise pi to a ridiculous number of digits is to remember prose writing where the character length of each word is a digit in pi. So it should have been obvious that words were an easier way to encode data than numbers, and could therefore be used to replace latitude and longitude.

    Full credit to the guy for thinking of it.
    https://patents.stackexchange.com/questions/13629/i-had-invented-and-published-before-this-patent-application-how-do-i-get-it-in
    Surely the reason you didn't tell us about What 3 Words is because it is shit and a proper paper map is much better, or because Google Maps does all this already? Given that's what you told us before. I'm confused now
  • Leon said:

    Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
    You can all bang on all you like about "oh I was into What 3 Words in 2014", or "a big foldy map of Yorkshire is much easier to use", but the fact is you are all spectrumy dullards who failed to notice 1. its conceptual potential and 2, how explosive this could be, and thus, how sensible it would be to invest in W3W right this moment

    That's why you need a hysteric like me on here. To "lose my shit" over and over again, and bang on about things for days on end, so you actually wake up to what is in front of you. eg If only we'd had a dude regularly losing his shit about this new virus in China in say, February 2020, we'd have been better warned
    I was in the office where w3w was programmed and didn't get invited to invest. Bought Bitcoin and Tesla instead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    Mark M Bathgate
    @m_bathgate
    ·
    1h
    UK wholesale natural gas prices for winter soaring again - the move today alone would add almost £150 to the average household bill.

    The effect of a single natural gas cargo being diverted to - or from - the UK can have a massive impact on gas and electricity prices.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
    Separate circuits. If the power goes out, it's no biggie to go to the garage, pull out the generator and switch it on.

    Ultimately, I'm paid by the day, and if having no power means I have to run a generator for the day (cost £20 in petrol) it's worth it when my day rate is £500.

    If it was just me, I'd sit in the dark with a candle and whistle. But being without power for 24 hours or more would significantly impact my consultancy business.

    Of course as LostPassword points out, it's not much use if I can't upload the work due to 4g being out (though I'm fairly sure the mast nearest to me has a diesel backup, on account of it being housed atop a large supermarket, which would have a backup generator).
    What do you do
    Management consultancy... boring as hell but the main problem is clients are very geographically distributed at the moment. Being unable to say, dial in to a teams call for the company in the US that has been paying my wages the last couple of months because of a 48 hour blackout would potentially ruin the relationship and destroy a long term revenue stream.

    As I will be working from home all winter, it's pretty important to me to be able to keep the lights on, the internet going, and at least one room in the house warm enough to work.

    I realise it's probably not the most critical job in the world but it's my livelihood.
    I interviewed for Deloitte but it just seemed so dull.

    Bet you can guess what I do!
  • Leon said:

    Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
    You can all bang on all you like about "oh I was into What 3 Words in 2014", or "a big foldy map of Yorkshire is much easier to use", but the fact is you are all spectrumy dullards who failed to notice 1. its conceptual potential and 2, how explosive this could be, and thus, how sensible it would be to invest in W3W right this moment

    That's why you need a hysteric like me on here. To "lose my shit" over and over again, and bang on about things for days on end, so you actually wake up to what is in front of you. eg If only we'd had a dude regularly losing his shit about this new virus in China in say, February 2020, we'd have been better warned
    I looked at it a couple of years ago after someone had mentioned it on here. Might have been @Dura_Ace

    I thought it was a great idea, but only told one person because we were in lockdown and I wasn't really seeing anyone.

    Then I forgot

    Thank you for the reminder
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484

    Leon said:

    Looks like @Leon's got bored of DALL.E 2 :lol:

    I'm trying to think if there's any subject on the planet he wouldn't lose his shit about.
    He reminds me of an incel virgin who sees his first pair of boobs.
    Yes.
    You can all bang on all you like about "oh I was into What 3 Words in 2014", or "a big foldy map of Yorkshire is much easier to use", but the fact is you are all spectrumy dullards who failed to notice 1. its conceptual potential and 2, how explosive this could be, and thus, how sensible it would be to invest in W3W right this moment

    That's why you need a hysteric like me on here. To "lose my shit" over and over again, and bang on about things for days on end, so you actually wake up to what is in front of you. eg If only we'd had a dude regularly losing his shit about this new virus in China in say, February 2020, we'd have been better warned
    No it's not that it's just that you insist Google doesn't have it when I wrote the feature
    Google Maps does not have three words names for every single 3m sq chunk of the planet, does it? If it does, fairy nuff

    It's mainly the words that make it genius, because words are so memorable compared to numbers. They have also applied this fantastic idea quite expertly
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,175
    There's something compellingly brutal about just how much the @trussliz + @RishiSunak campaigns hate each other.

    These are quotes not from 'sources' but from their *official* campaign spokespeople, issued via press release.

    ❤️‍🔥 https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1557397763113029633/photo/1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Do I rig some solar thingummyjiggy to the roof of my garage? Or invest in a generator? Neighbours may not be happy with the noise, plus petrol costs etc.

    Petrol generators are not necessarily noisy. We had a Honda unit for running PA systems outdoors and it was really pretty quiet.

    Will be expensive to run, and you need to decide how to get the power into your house. Changeover switch, or separate circuits?
    Separate circuits. If the power goes out, it's no biggie to go to the garage, pull out the generator and switch it on.

    Ultimately, I'm paid by the day, and if having no power means I have to run a generator for the day (cost £20 in petrol) it's worth it when my day rate is £500.

    If it was just me, I'd sit in the dark with a candle and whistle. But being without power for 24 hours or more would significantly impact my consultancy business.

    Of course as LostPassword points out, it's not much use if I can't upload the work due to 4g being out (though I'm fairly sure the mast nearest to me has a diesel backup, on account of it being housed atop a large supermarket, which would have a backup generator).
    Looking on Amazon UK, petrol generators are already mostly showing up as out of stock. 2kW petrol genny coming in at £1,700. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Gmjay-Frequency-Generator-Household-Emergency/dp/B09CM4M679/ Remember to keep a couple of Jerry cans of petrol handy, and a load of extension reels.

    For just keeping your laptop and broadband router online in a real emergency, you can get a car-powered mains inverter. https://www.amazon.co.uk/LVYUAN-Inverter-Converter-Sockets-Adapter/dp/B07ZT9ML61/
    That’s much cheaper to buy, but more expensive to run as you’ll need the car engine on.

    If you need internet no matter what, then look to something like Starlink that can route around a local power cut.

    Otherwise, plan a place to go in the event of a power cut, maybe an hotel or a relative’s house.
This discussion has been closed.