I'm not entirely sure if this is VI intention or something else, anyway
About that Tory lead bet...
Truss is bound to get an initial bounce and probably a poll lead. Johnson in summer 2019, May in summer 2016, Brown in summer 2007 and Major in autumn 1990 all got a bounce and took the lead after entering No 10.
However sustaining it to win a majority at the next general election would be the bigger challenge, only Major in 1992 managed it
Plus Boris of course. Callaghan and Home also fell short taking over in power
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
It gets to do Bastille Day every single year though.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
I've never been to the battlefield or abbey
This is a good place to stay. The old gunpowder mill. I went to a wedding there a few years back.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
It gets to do Bastille Day every single year though.
We get to do Trooping of the Colour every single year
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
Just thinking out loud here, but given the dire straits in which the nation's finances are I am just wondering if there's any other royal rituals or procedures which would draw a large and appreciative audience.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
It gets to do Bastille Day every single year though.
We get to do Trooping of the Colour every single year
So erh, Rishi was in favour of international law. God help us.
She really is Johnson 2.0 if this is what she's offering.
I believe in Liz. She's the right candidate in the right place at the right time. To destroy the Tory Party's electoral prospects for a decade to come.
I will be getting behind her, and advise colleagues in the Tory parliamentary party, and proud and committed campaigners in local constituency offices up and down the country, too, to get behind the northern candidate, the real conservative candidate, rather than a member of the globalised elite. and the iron lady who's Best for Britain.
I'd be careful. It really isn't clear what sort of PM she would be. However the auspices aren't good. Trade war with the EU over the protocol, unfunded tax cuts, Minford and Redwood in consultancy roles but you never know. In many ways the key weakness in the UK economy - the property financial complex - might benefit from some free market thinking. Liberalise planning (sensibly) and stop the banks socialising their losses.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
Just thinking out loud here, but given the dire straits in which the nation's finances are I am just wondering if there's any other royal rituals or procedures which would draw a large and appreciative audience.
Well beheadings by royal decree used to get a big public audience given we have no jubilees or weddings or coronations imminently on the horizon (even if the latter might not be too far away). I am sure the Palace could think of some candidates if it wished to resurrect the tradition after a few centuries
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Does it matter? I find I am usually drunk by the time I go to bed in a hotel. If you are not looking for an inclusive resorty, spa-ish sort of experience, just clean sheets and hot water, £100 a night should cover it?
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
Just thinking out loud here, but given the dire straits in which the nation's finances are I am just wondering if there's any other royal rituals or procedures which would draw a large and appreciative audience.
Perhaps the grooming of the stool would please a televisual audience.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
Yes I have been, it is very impressive, grander than Buckingham Palace with fantastic grounds plus Maze. It is the UK Versailles
Versailles, you say? In that REPUBLIC known as France?
Where Macron lives in the Elysee Palace yes
So if we do become a republic, we can still have palaces as tourist attractions?
He lives in a Palace, visitors can't visit the Elysee as much as they can Buckingham Palace and they don't have the royal wedding, jubille and coronation revenue we do
Paris is famous for having v few tourists since it got rid of it's monarchy.
It certainly doesn't get any for its royal weddings, jubilees and coronations like we do
Just thinking out loud here, but given the dire straits in which the nation's finances are I am just wondering if there's any other royal rituals or procedures which would draw a large and appreciative audience.
Perhaps the grooming of the stool would please a televisual audience.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Does it matter? I find I am usually drunk by the time I go to bed in a hotel. If you are not looking for an inclusive resorty, spa-ish sort of experience, just clean sheets and hot water, £100 a night should cover it?
Oh sure, for me, it's fine. I don't give a fuck in the UK. I positively revel in the cheapness of some cheap hotels. I quite like a Premier Inn from time to time. The sheer basic reliability is reassuring. Or a Wetherspoons hotel - often in nice old buildings
BUT I need an extra room for my daughter, and that makes it trickier, and then you notice the price. I can afford it but when I remember what I was getting in Montenegro - little cottages in the Garden of Eden for £25 a night...
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Has she ever been to an illegal rave? Or taken ecstacy?
Come on, think of all the things you enjoyed at that age.
Sadly, she is of this new sober generation. She's never had a drink and the idea of drugs would make her shudder with horror. Really. And it's not just her, all her friends are like this
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Her chances of dying in the next year are under 0.25%, actuarially speaking. say 0.5% adjusted for assassination, but you can probably knock that off again for being a non smoker.
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
I think her terrible first debate was probably her not getting enough sleep. Or it was an amazing piece of acting that made all her subsequent apperances look brilliant by comparison.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Anyways. My youngest 18, has exhausted his Interrail pass . Him and his mates are in Amsterdam. They are super sporty, extremely straight laddish lads. But they are utterly made up it is Amsterdam Pride on their final evening. Can't believe their luck. They are stoned and waving transgender flags.
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
She looked pretty jaded after her Indonesian trip, but not quite so death like anymore.
I don't see any value in Sunak. It is a losing bet and the odds will lengthen more.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Her chances of dying in the next year are under 0.25%, actuarially speaking. say 0.5% adjusted for assassination, but you can probably knock that off again for being a non smoker.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
I can't keep up with whether wage increases are a good thing, or cause inflation and must be resisted at all cost.
I don’t see a contradiction between being happy that wages at the bottom are rising generally (albeit less than inflation), and wanting the government to negotiate on our behalf in particular public sector pay rounds.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Her chances of dying in the next year are under 0.25%, actuarially speaking. say 0.5% adjusted for assassination, but you can probably knock that off again for being a non smoker.
Yeah. But that isn't just dying, is it?
It is really. but OK cancel the nonsmoker bonus to cover the not-dead-but-incapacitated angle. Still 0.5%.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
That looks excellent! Never heard of it. She definitely wants to get out of London tomorrow, but for another day this summer - nice one. Ta
All these immersive experiences are potential fun, I think. My friend and I loved the Dirty Dancing one by Secret Cinema (https://www.secretcinema.org/). I'm not into tentacles or superheroes so the Stranger Things and Guardians ones don't tempt me, but I hope to pick up another one later in the year.
Agree with @Casino_Royale in the last thread. Love him or hate him Nigel Farage should clearly be honoured for the contribution he's made to public life.
Not just honoured, REVERED
More drunken BS.
Brits don’t give a xxxx for abstract concepts like (purported) sovereignty if they come with the cost of having to queue for five hours to go on holiday.
One day, my friend, you too will give thanks for Brexit. And you will whisper the name "Farage" almost like a long lost, much loved girlfriend
And you will come on this site and ask my forgiveness, and apologise for being so wrong. I shall try to be magnanimous, because I know you are lonely and only talk to your dog
You been reading 1984 again, and imagining you’re O’Brien. You need to get over these authoritarian fantasies.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
Sunak team were briefing earlier that there are a lot of undecideds.
Is 10.5 value?
Probably yes. A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
Oh sod it - I'm going back in at those odds. There's always the chance of a black swan August surprise.
It isn't nice to think. But there's always the health angle at those odds as well. Super long days, loads of travel, stressful interviews, hustings. Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Her chances of dying in the next year are under 0.25%, actuarially speaking. say 0.5% adjusted for assassination, but you can probably knock that off again for being a non smoker.
Yeah. But that isn't just dying, is it?
It is really. but OK cancel the nonsmoker bonus to cover the not-dead-but-incapacitated angle. Still 0.5%.
Yeah but. That's the average not the person running for PM. Besides. I did say it was a factor to be considered. Which it is. Particularly when you get to 10.5 in a two horse race.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
The differences are huge:
Ireland is strange at 14.5%. EU FoM, CTA, english language. Even if they train enough people, some must leave for the UK. Why so low?
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
A weird thing happened in Scotland in 2008 - productivity rose significantly as unemployment increased. Didn't happen across the UK generally.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
UK hotels (and other accommodation) have always been very expensive for what they offer. Hence the rise of the Premier Inn and Travelodge for the "Just want a bed for the night" requirement. And also the explosion of AirBnB.
I stayed (a couple of years back) in the Cotswolds in a 2 bed cottage. It was heavily discounted for out of season. Peak season was 4 figures for 4 days.... Labour costs didn't figure into much of that....
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
Indeed yes. A brilliant (and nicely brief) book.
In IT, we reckon that bringing a new person into a 5 person team *can* drop productivity by 10%. Yes, you make it a six person team, and in effect, for a period of time you have a 4.5 person team. Depends on the complexity of the systems, knowledge, setup. We are very quick at onboarding in my current team - the new people are often net productive by the 3rd week.
Niiigel, Nig-el Far-age, Everyone Loves Your Cords!
Niiigel, Ni-gel Far-age, Thanks For Stopping the Hordes!
Thar's what our smiling, rosy-cheeked children will sing, on this:
the Feast of Leave.
And Brexit Day shall ne'er go by, From this day to the ending of the world, But we in it shall be remembered, with our cheers We few, we happy few, we band of Brexiteers
To the tune of “Oh tannenbaum”
Oh Brexit day, oh Brexit day What glorious freedom came of you
Oh Brexit day, oh Brexit day The 48 v 52
Nigel Farage was the star He showed us who really are
Oh Brexit day, oh Brexit day We are the best country by far.
Excellent. I'm actually humming it now
Liz Truss should start commissioning actual hymns for Brexit Day, and poems and ditties and the like - as we turn it into a proper national holiday. People WANT to rejoice about Brexit, it's just silly red tape holding them back, so give everyone the day off so everyone can express their gratitude to the Brexiteers
I feel Oh Tannenbaum has too much of a whiff of communism. The happy wanderer is far more Brexapropriate.
We love to go a Brexiting Regained our sovereignty And since we went a Brexiting We're prosperous and freeee.
Nigelleee! Nigellaa! Nigelleee! Nigellahahaha! Nigelleee! Nigellaa! We're prosperous and freeeee.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
If doctors were paid less they wouldn't be able to retire in their late fifties, leaving gaps in provision. Get another 8 or 9 years out of each of them and problem solved.
Oh, and do any GPs actually work full time? Again, pay them less and they wouldn't be able to afford to just earn part time wages.
Until we reach a point where there are unfilled places at med school the wages are clearly attractive enough to entice sufficient people into the profession.
Cut wages. Get more doctors. If you are reading this Liz, you can run with that.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
Lots of fun economics chat here this evening.
A theory: General output (ie GDP) and Health "output" don't grow 1:1. Healthcare is far more labour intensive than other areas of the economy, and labour productivity isn't growing as fast as general productivity. If healthcare is to maintain the same "output" as a proportion of GDP, it must see increase government spending as a proportion of GDP.
This could compound a general increase in demand for healthcare as a result of the vicious cycle of us being able to treat chronic conditions like diabetes. And this is before we even come to demographics.
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
A weird thing happened in Scotland in 2008 - productivity rose significantly as unemployment increased. Didn't happen across the UK generally.
The same effect, inverted?
There is a well known phenomenon where you can cut the workforce excessively. The remaining workers hold things together. For a while. The organisation gets more and more stressed and eventually fails as the work fails to be done properly.
Hence the idiot managers who cut and then run to the next job - the eventual failure is 2-3 years away.
Got my first indyref2 leaflet through today. They have gone very hard on wind and tidal power (as many here predicted/wanted).
1) Energy (true) 2) Educated workforce (true) 3) "innate innovation" (sounds a bit protestant work ethic, or Scottish exceptionalism) 4) Welcoming to businesses (complete bollocks in the short/medium term, see "Brexit")
+ Massive photo of Sturgeon
It also copies pretty much word for word an SG publication from a few weeks back.
The damaging revelations of the Jan. 6 committee hearings are fueling skepticism among Senate Republicans that former President Trump can win the GOP nomination in 2024 or even run for another term in the White House.
If Trump backed candidates fail in November then his credibility will be damaged.
Speaking of which am I correct that Trump backed candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania look like they're making a mess of their Senate races ?
If so it becomes very hard for the GOP to take control as they'd need to win in both Arizona and Nevada - New Hampshire seems to be another flop for them.
So... It's 50-50 now, which gives the Dems control.
If Oz really does lose Pennsylvania (which looks increasingly likely) then the Republicans need to make two gains.
There are two excellent shots (Nevada and Arizona), one fading, but still perfectly possible (Georgia), and two unlikely but would fall in a wave election (New Hampshire and Colorado).
I would make the Republicans a slightly better than evens shot... But only sightly better. The Dems lead in the polls (by the narrowest of margins) in both AZ and NV, but you have to reckon the Republicans will have the enthusiasm gap on their side.
I think there are two factors that can significantly help to overcome the enthusiasm gap which currently favours the Republicans.
The first factor is the impact of the Supreme Court's decision on abortion. Republican state legislators and governors will now use the decision to push extreme policies such as criminalising interstate travel to obtain abortions. I think this will lead to a significant enough backlash to push Democrat voters into turning out to vote in significant numbers.
The second factor is Trump. There is a strong likelihood that he will declare his candidacy before the midterms, and possibly in September. This will again evoke enough terror in Democrat voters about the thought of another unconstrained Trump presidency that more of them might vote in the midterms.
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
A weird thing happened in Scotland in 2008 - productivity rose significantly as unemployment increased. Didn't happen across the UK generally.
The same effect, inverted?
There is a well known phenomenon where you can cut the workforce excessively. The remaining workers hold things together. For a while. The organisation gets more and more stressed and eventually fails as the work fails to be done properly.
Hence the idiot managers who cut and then run to the next job - the eventual failure is 2-3 years away.
My simpler explanation was that no jobs were cut in Oil & Gas at that time, so average productivity rocketed.
@Jim_Miller maybe the US is just adding lots of crap, gig-like jobs?
Malsmesbury said: "We are very quick at onboarding in my current team - the new people are often net productive by the 3rd week."
I'm impressed.
We are only bringing in people with applicable skills - not training them up as coders.
We are very good at using Agile to create simple tasks - there is nothing so good for the new starters confidence, when faced with a massive amount to learn, than their first piece of code going into the codebase.
Even if is some noddy code.
EDIT: It helps that we have all their accounts, permissions etc setup from before they start. Login on day 1, hour 1 with full access and all the tools. Some places that can take months. FFS.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
What about Oxford or Cambridge for Leon's daughter? The students will have left so accommodation might be cheaper. Architecture, *that* apple tree, and a punt down the river to inspire her for Liz Truss's new A* scheme.
What about Oxford or Cambridge for Leon's daughter? The students will have left so accommodation might be cheaper. Architecture, *that* apple tree, and a punt down the river to inspire her for Liz Truss's new A* scheme.
And Woodstock (Blenheim) is just up the road from Oxford.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
The differences are huge:
Ireland is strange at 14.5%. EU FoM, CTA, english language. Even if they train enough people, some must leave for the UK. Why so low?
Lots of Irish-trained medical staff leave to work in Oz, or NZ, and other places. Ireland is one of the few Western countries with a health service in worse shape than Britain's, which probably explains why there isn't a rush of foreign staff to work in it.
Arguably the education system in Ireland is in much better shape than in Britain, so it's also possible that they train a relatively large excess of medical staff.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
Lots of fun economics chat here this evening.
A theory: General output (ie GDP) and Health "output" don't grow 1:1. Healthcare is far more labour intensive than other areas of the economy, and labour productivity isn't growing as fast as general productivity. If healthcare is to maintain the same "output" as a proportion of GDP, it must see increase government spending as a proportion of GDP.
This could compound a general increase in demand for healthcare as a result of the vicious cycle of us being able to treat chronic conditions like diabetes. And this is before we even come to demographics.
Gonna need more doctors.
This is by and large the story of the 20th century, in education too. Whether it's still true this century or not depends on technology, but we also find more to do - many of the jobs being added in Western education systems now are about special needs, which are probably "output" "unproductive" but appeal strongly to many people.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
Derbyshire is much underrated - you have Mr Darcy's Pemberley, a birthplace of the industrial revolution and an equivalent of the Auvergne all within a few miles of each other.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
I was educated in a mix of private/public. So were my daughters.
Having seen this, it is my clear belief that the state system does not maximise the potential of the bright children it it - by multiple times. That is, we could create X times more 4 As at A level (or what ever measure you wish to use) than we currently do.
If we wanted to increase the UK doctor training throughput by 25%, the human material is trivially there. Or even 50%.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
There might be some low hanging fruit around junior hospital doctors' training. Apparently they have to choose a long way in advance which leads to gap years while they think about what they want to do for the rest of their lives. You'd imagine a sufficiently advanced computer could allow for much later choices. Raising pay for juniors might help too by increasing the cost of gap years; currently a new doctor gets £29,000.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
iirc the number of places is not restricted by the universities but it is the limits on the follow-up, post-grad training in hospitals and wider NHS.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
The differences are huge:
Ireland is strange at 14.5%. EU FoM, CTA, english language. Even if they train enough people, some must leave for the UK. Why so low?
Lots of Irish-trained medical staff leave to work in Oz, or NZ, and other places. Ireland is one of the few Western countries with a health service in worse shape than Britain's, which probably explains why there isn't a rush of foreign staff to work in it.
Arguably the education system in Ireland is in much better shape than in Britain, so it's also possible that they train a relatively large excess of medical staff.
I found a more recent source that puts the percentage of foreign doctors in Ireland at 42%, so the simplest explanation is that the situation has changed or the other figures are wrong.
Has she ever been to an illegal rave? Or taken ecstacy?
Come on, think of all the things you enjoyed at that age.
Sadly, she is of this new sober generation. She's never had a drink and the idea of drugs would make her shudder with horror. Really. And it's not just her, all her friends are like this
Their idea of rebellion is pronouns and transness
SO (seemingly) you'd prefer that she & they were anti-woke AND pro-toke?
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
There is a worldwide shortage of medical staff - in China and India (for example), growing prosperity has increased consumption of healthcare. The expansion of training and universities cannot keep up. This pattern is repeated for other professions requiring combined academic/practical training.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
The differences are huge:
Ireland is strange at 14.5%. EU FoM, CTA, english language. Even if they train enough people, some must leave for the UK. Why so low?
Lots of Irish-trained medical staff leave to work in Oz, or NZ, and other places. Ireland is one of the few Western countries with a health service in worse shape than Britain's, which probably explains why there isn't a rush of foreign staff to work in it.
Arguably the education system in Ireland is in much better shape than in Britain, so it's also possible that they train a relatively large excess of medical staff.
I found a more recent source that puts the percentage of foreign doctors in Ireland at 42%, so the simplest explanation is that the situation has changed or the other figures are wrong.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
I was educated in a mix of private/public. So were my daughters.
Having seen this, it is my clear belief that the state system does not maximise the potential of the bright children it it - by multiple times. That is, we could create X times more 4 As at A level (or what ever measure you wish to use) than we currently do.
If we wanted to increase the UK doctor training throughput by 25%, the human material is trivially there. Or even 50%.
There are some new medical schools that have just opened. As you say, we could easily fill more medical school places given the political will.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
Derbyshire is much underrated - you have Mr Darcy's Pemberley, a birthplace of the industrial revolution and an equivalent of the Auvergne all within a few miles of each other.
On topic (sorry). A Conservative minority government with unofficial SNP support, with devomax promised. Advantage for Truss, Devomax will delay Scottish independence for long enough for her to take the credit for removing Scottish independence from the political agenda for the foreseeable future (otherwise known as a generation). Advantage for Sturgeon, moving the independence agenda far enough forward to claim some credit before moving on to her alleged UN job, the finance and power to implement her desired New Labour agenda. Turning fundamentalist Scottish nationalists into an impotent minority for long enough to get her policies implemented without serious opposition. Sidelining Scottish Tories.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
Derbyshire is much underrated - you have Mr Darcy's Pemberley, a birthplace of the industrial revolution and an equivalent of the Auvergne all within a few miles of each other.
Yes, Derbyshire came high up my list of counties yesterday. And in my experience young southerners tend to be much impressed by Derbyshire. I stayed in a hotel in the Hope Valley in Spring; there was a wedding going on the following day, and small throngs of young and happy Londoners were arriving, and pronouncing themselves slightly awestruck. As well they might be - the Peak District is not the Alps, but it is bigger and more dramatic than anything closer to London. Also, in Dovedale, with several friends from Surrey and their families: young boys awestruck by the sheer steepness, the likes of which they'd never seen in England. "Are we going up that?" they asked, slightly worried - before streaming up Thorpe Cloud by the most vertical route possible.
I rather like Buxton, especially when there is something on in Pavilion Gardens, as there often is over the summer. And Poole's Cavern is quite impressive (other caves are available too), and see if you can find a reason to go to Buxton Opera House. And if you could hire bikes and cycle along the Monsal Trail between Buxton and Bakewell it is almost preternaturally pleasant. And you would very much like the Blind Bull in Little Hucklow.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
Derbyshire is much underrated - you have Mr Darcy's Pemberley, a birthplace of the industrial revolution and an equivalent of the Auvergne all within a few miles of each other.
Plus also Bakewell puddings, though Bakewell itself is often horrendously busy.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
I went there as an older teenager and enjoyed the day but mainly because it included a trip up the road to the village where my grandmother grew up as one daughter of 5 in a small cottage and the church where she married my grandfather not too many years after he was released from the pow camps. Village seemed like it hadn’t changed in those many decades.
Go for personal history. We’re all the stars of our own novel.
Yes, I was considering taking her to Hastings for the Abbey and battlefield - and her Great ggggggggggg father William Peverel who is, apparently, listed in the abbey as one of the knights who came over with The Bastard
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
Derbyshire is much underrated - you have Mr Darcy's Pemberley, a birthplace of the industrial revolution and an equivalent of the Auvergne all within a few miles of each other.
Plus also Bakewell puddings, though Bakewell itself is often horrendously busy.
Let us know what you decide, @Leon, and how successful it was. Mostly, enjoy bonding with your daughter. She soon won’t be at an age where you will appreciate each other’s company as much, although that time will come again when you are both older and grandchildren are in the mix.
I've never been to Blenheim Palace. That's got to be interesting? An entire palace. UNESCO listed
Has any PB-er been? Is it impressive enough to placate a slightly snarky 16 year old?
If you do go to Blenheim then take time to go to the Church at Bladon which is right next door.
Churchill is buried there in a very plain but, for me, very moving, grave. A marble slab bearing just the names of himself and Clemy. Well worth a visit.
So erh, Rishi was in favour of international law. God help us.
She really is Johnson 2.0 if this is what she's offering.
Thank goodness he's losing then, eh? 👍
All the so-called "international law" headbangers just want to kowtow to every whim of Brussels despite us having left. Domestic law trumps any international nonsense, that's part and parcel of being a sovereign country. Parliament is fully entitled to override international law where its failing with a notwithstanding clause.
"International law" is nothing special, there is no reason for it to trump domestic law. If Parliament passes a law to override it, then its no longer the law of the land. The rule of law is maintained - and all it becomes then is international diplomacy, which is how this should be resolved.
On topic (sorry). A Conservative minority government with unofficial SNP support, with devomax promised. Advantage for Truss, Devomax will delay Scottish independence for long enough for her to take the credit for removing Scottish independence from the political agenda for the foreseeable future (otherwise known as a generation). Advantage for Sturgeon, moving the independence agenda far enough forward to claim some credit before moving on to her alleged UN job, the finance and power to implement her desired New Labour agenda. Turning fundamentalist Scottish nationalists into an impotent minority for long enough to get her policies implemented without serious opposition. Sidelining Scottish Tories.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
Training places strikes me as a win-win. Back in my day (15 years' ago now) it was incredibly hard to get a place to study medicine at University - much more so than it was to study maths, physics, or other academic subjects.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
iirc the number of places is not restricted by the universities but it is the limits on the follow-up, post-grad training in hospitals and wider NHS.
Foxy may correct me.
In both cases the numbers are restricted by the General Medical Council (the official government regulator), not the universities.
There is also the practical problem that training in postgraduate specialities is very intensive of existing specialists time, something that has been squeezed hard in recent years, and doesn't take place in the private sector.
Jesus F Christ British hotels are expensive for what you get
Yes, but think of it a patriotic devotion to St Nigel of Brexit for having seen off the Polish staff.
Aren’t we still pretending immigration doesn’t supress wages? I can’t keep up.
No, it is this government that is suppressing wages, hence the strikes and shortages of staff in key roles.
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
22% of doctors are non-eu foreigners. 9% are eu.
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places B ) retention C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
All 3 have been trashed in recent years, and no sign of that being reversed.
1) more undergraduates, but postgraduate training numbers haven't increased in 15 years in most specialities, and were substantially reduced at that time. The Hunt contract for junior doctors
Comments
@trussliz - 31%
@RishiSunak - 29%
Undecided - 32%
3 in 5 want next PM to reverse National Insurance rise and cut income tax next year or sooner
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/30/three-five-tory-councillors-want-new-leader-reverse-ni-rise/
https://powdermillshotel.com/
Nearby Rye is well worth a look, but Hasings itself is a bit rough and down at heel.
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1553493115893325824
Is 10.5 value?
A value loser. But yeah. There's always the summat turns up to consider. Imho.
https://www.tudorsociety.com/groom-stool-sarah-bryson/
Your daughter is 16, right?
Has she ever been to an illegal rave? Or taken ecstacy?
Come on, think of all the things you enjoyed at that age.
Ironic that the Groom of the Stool had no seat on the Privy Council.
BUT I need an extra room for my daughter, and that makes it trickier, and then you notice the price. I can afford it but when I remember what I was getting in Montenegro - little cottages in the Garden of Eden for £25 a night...
It is the fact we are a crowded island, with lots of people.... and it's peak season and school hols
Liz looks quite robust and in decent shape, but you can never be certain.
Their idea of rebellion is pronouns and transness
Indeed the point of Brexit was to remove my foreign competition and increase the bargaining power of sturdy British Yeomen like myself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peveril_Castle
But they are utterly made up it is Amsterdam Pride on their final evening. Can't believe their luck.
They are stoned and waving transgender flags.
I don't see any value in Sunak. It is a losing bet and the odds will lengthen more.
Bronze age hillforts, Roman ruins, Peveril castle.
I don't know Derbyshire at all, barely been, but it's stuffed full of mad things, isn't it? All those big old creepy houses. LIKE
Cracking idea
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/24/icymi-treasury-secretary-yellen-says-us-economy-not-in-recession/
And then I remembered a conclusion from The Mythical Man Month that could explain how more workers could be producing less. Those familiar with the book will see my point immediately; those who aren't should at least read the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
I am not sure whether I should treat this stray thought seriously, but decided that it might amuse some of you. And you might even have some thoughts and/or evidence on the it.
(The massive hiring isn't the only source of "churn" in the work force. There are also large numbers of people who are retiring early, changing jobs, and so forth.) :
Three levers on number of doctors:
A ) training places
B ) retention
C ) immigration
Which are the biggest factors? What would you concentrate on if in government?
@gabrielmilland
·
1h
I literally cannot think of a policy better designed to hand the Blue Wall to the LibDems.
===
He's talking about Truss plan to bring back selection at 11 and grammar schools.
It is going to be very difficult having messaging that works both in English and Scottish seats.
Truss' policy to build a million new homes in the greenbelt would be far more likely to see voters there go LD
You need to get over these authoritarian fantasies.
The rational approach would be to train more staff here - simply hoping that sufficient people will be trained by poor countries and come here will not be tenable in the long run.
Besides. I did say it was a factor to be considered. Which it is. Particularly when you get to 10.5 in a two horse race.
Ireland is strange at 14.5%. EU FoM, CTA, english language. Even if they train enough people, some must leave for the UK. Why so low?
The same effect, inverted?
I stayed (a couple of years back) in the Cotswolds in a 2 bed cottage. It was heavily discounted for out of season. Peak season was 4 figures for 4 days.... Labour costs didn't figure into much of that....
In IT, we reckon that bringing a new person into a 5 person team *can* drop productivity by 10%. Yes, you make it a six person team, and in effect, for a period of time you have a 4.5 person team. Depends on the complexity of the systems, knowledge, setup. We are very quick at onboarding in my current team - the new people are often net productive by the 3rd week.
We love to go a Brexiting
Regained our sovereignty
And since we went a Brexiting
We're prosperous and freeee.
Nigelleee! Nigellaa! Nigelleee! Nigellahahaha!
Nigelleee! Nigellaa!
We're prosperous and freeeee.
Oh, and do any GPs actually work full time? Again, pay them less and they wouldn't be able to afford to just earn part time wages.
Until we reach a point where there are unfilled places at med school the wages are clearly attractive enough to entice sufficient people into the profession.
Cut wages. Get more doctors. If you are reading this Liz, you can run with that.
A theory: General output (ie GDP) and Health "output" don't grow 1:1. Healthcare is far more labour intensive than other areas of the economy, and labour productivity isn't growing as fast as general productivity. If healthcare is to maintain the same "output" as a proportion of GDP, it must see increase government spending as a proportion of GDP.
This could compound a general increase in demand for healthcare as a result of the vicious cycle of us being able to treat chronic conditions like diabetes. And this is before we even come to demographics.
Gonna need more doctors.
“You + the system are a joke. Thank you, communists.”
Now, his candidacy could be in jeopardy due to a GOP-backed elections law.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeinerOS/status/1552429339060355072
I'm impressed.
Hence the idiot managers who cut and then run to the next job - the eventual failure is 2-3 years away.
1) Energy (true)
2) Educated workforce (true)
3) "innate innovation" (sounds a bit protestant work ethic, or Scottish exceptionalism)
4) Welcoming to businesses (complete bollocks in the short/medium term, see "Brexit")
+ Massive photo of Sturgeon
It also copies pretty much word for word an SG publication from a few weeks back.
The first factor is the impact of the Supreme Court's decision on abortion. Republican state legislators and governors will now use the decision to push extreme policies such as criminalising interstate travel to obtain abortions. I think this will lead to a significant enough backlash to push Democrat voters into turning out to vote in significant numbers.
The second factor is Trump. There is a strong likelihood that he will declare his candidacy before the midterms, and possibly in September. This will again evoke enough terror in Democrat voters about the thought of another unconstrained Trump presidency that more of them might vote in the midterms.
Here are a couple of good articles by the conservative US blogger Allahpundit on both of these factors:
https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/07/14/worst-case-scenario-trump-to-launch-his-2024-candidacy-in-september-n482794
https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/06/24/kavanaugh-red-states-cant-stop-pregnant-women-from-traveling-to-blue-states-for-an-abortion-n478584
@Jim_Miller maybe the US is just adding lots of crap, gig-like jobs?
We are very good at using Agile to create simple tasks - there is nothing so good for the new starters confidence, when faced with a massive amount to learn, than their first piece of code going into the codebase.
Even if is some noddy code.
EDIT: It helps that we have all their accounts, permissions etc setup from before they start. Login on day 1, hour 1 with full access and all the tools. Some places that can take months. FFS.
Medicine isn't a uniquely difficult subject - the difference is the limitation of places. Which is an incredibly short-sighted approach when we subsequently have to rely on doctors trained abroad to such a large extent.
But in the short-term, if we have a shortage of doctors then that's the market saying we need to pay them more. Or not cut their pay by as much in real terms.
Arguably the education system in Ireland is in much better shape than in Britain, so it's also possible that they train a relatively large excess of medical staff.
Here's the latest job report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Having seen this, it is my clear belief that the state system does not maximise the potential of the bright children it it - by multiple times. That is, we could create X times more 4 As at A level (or what ever measure you wish to use) than we currently do.
If we wanted to increase the UK doctor training throughput by 25%, the human material is trivially there. Or even 50%.
Foxy may correct me.
Advantage for Truss, Devomax will delay Scottish independence for long enough for her to take the credit for removing Scottish independence from the political agenda for the foreseeable future (otherwise known as a generation).
Advantage for Sturgeon, moving the independence agenda far enough forward to claim some credit before moving on to her alleged UN job, the finance and power to implement her desired New Labour agenda. Turning fundamentalist Scottish nationalists into an impotent minority for long enough to get her policies implemented without serious opposition. Sidelining Scottish Tories.
And in my experience young southerners tend to be much impressed by Derbyshire. I stayed in a hotel in the Hope Valley in Spring; there was a wedding going on the following day, and small throngs of young and happy Londoners were arriving, and pronouncing themselves slightly awestruck. As well they might be - the Peak District is not the Alps, but it is bigger and more dramatic than anything closer to London.
Also, in Dovedale, with several friends from Surrey and their families: young boys awestruck by the sheer steepness, the likes of which they'd never seen in England. "Are we going up that?" they asked, slightly worried - before streaming up Thorpe Cloud by the most vertical route possible.
I rather like Buxton, especially when there is something on in Pavilion Gardens, as there often is over the summer. And Poole's Cavern is quite impressive (other caves are available too), and see if you can find a reason to go to Buxton Opera House. And if you could hire bikes and cycle along the Monsal Trail between Buxton and Bakewell it is almost preternaturally pleasant.
And you would very much like the Blind Bull in Little Hucklow.
Churchill is buried there in a very plain but, for me, very moving, grave. A marble slab bearing just the names of himself and Clemy. Well worth a visit.
All the so-called "international law" headbangers just want to kowtow to every whim of Brussels despite us having left. Domestic law trumps any international nonsense, that's part and parcel of being a sovereign country. Parliament is fully entitled to override international law where its failing with a notwithstanding clause.
"International law" is nothing special, there is no reason for it to trump domestic law. If Parliament passes a law to override it, then its no longer the law of the land. The rule of law is maintained - and all it becomes then is international diplomacy, which is how this should be resolved.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
"The West needs to grow up
The culture wars have infantilised society
BY PAUL KINGSNORTH"
https://unherd.com/2022/07/the-west-needs-to-grow-up/
There is also the practical problem that training in postgraduate specialities is very intensive of existing specialists time, something that has been squeezed hard in recent years, and doesn't take place in the private sector.
1) more undergraduates, but postgraduate training numbers haven't increased in 15 years in most specialities, and were substantially reduced at that time. The Hunt contract for junior doctors