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Sunak leads by 9% as appearing a PM in waiting – politicalbetting.com
Sunak leads by 9% as appearing a PM in waiting – politicalbetting.com
Rishi Sunak looks more like a PM in waiting than Keir Starmer and Liz Truss, but none of them look like an obvious PM.> 34% agree Sunak looks like a PM in waiting vs 35% disagree (net -1)> Starmer: 30% agree vs 39% disagree (net -9)> Truss: 25% agree vs 37% disagree (net -12) pic.twitter.com/DKqrYzaNqH
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Thatcher (in her prime) Vs Blair (in his prime) who would've won?
A Labour government led by Keir Starmer: 40%
A Conservative government led by Liz Truss: 39%
via @OpiniumResearch, 21-22 Jul
1.54 Liz Truss 65%
2.92 Rishi Sunak 34%
Next Conservative leader
1.55 Liz Truss 65%
2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
Let's hope it keeps rolling for weeks ...
Thatcher was sui generis, and created her own political reality via great success - despite her flaws
Blair was more the classically excellent politician, suave, affable, plausible. charming, clever - he had everything going for him. So in an all-else-equal vote, Blair gets it
But Thatcher is ten times the historical figure
Sure, he might score slightly better on appearing like a PM, but that's not a bad match up for Truss and makes claims she has no chance against Starmer look like hyperbole.
LAB: 42% (-1)
CON: 31% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+1)
via @DeltapollUK, 21-23 Jul
(Changes with 14 Apr)
with a Labour government under Keir Starmer...
> ... leading a Sunak govt by 11 pts
> ... leading a Mordaunt govt by 12 pts
> ... leading a Truss govt by 14 pts https://t.co/Nwybw9BBAD
Free trade is good for all nations and in sectors boosts whoever has a competitive advantage.
If our farmers think they are competitive and have a superior product then they have nothing to fear from a trade deal.
Eg Boris in his prime would not have been well placed to fight 2015, whereas Cameron in his prime would not have been able to fight 2019 like Boris could.
Which one is the incumbent? How long have they been in office? What's the state of the country? What's the prevailing political weather?
So much of political success is timing and downright luck.
The question is whether the change was for the good or not.
If Lib Dems wanted Labour, they'd be voting Labour.
Once implemented, the NZ-UK FTA will remove:
prohibitively high tariffs and restricted quota access for key meat and dairy exports
£10-26 per hectolitre tariff on wine
16% tariff on honey
tariffs of up to 20% on seafood products
8% tariffs on onions, kiwifruit and (at certain times of the year) apples.
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/new-zealand-united-kingdom-free-trade-agreement/key-facts-on-new-zealand-united-kingdom-trade/
I doubt many British farmers are going to be affected by this.
But it might affect other countries which export wine, honey, dairy products and fruit to the UK.
Plus make those items a bit cheaper in the supermarkets.
1.54 is nuts on current evidence, she is at least a 75% chance.
I'm surprised how small it has been given how many never Borises there were. Seems an almost equal amount of only Borises.
Imagine there's been a fair bit of churn.
I didn't think polling was supposed to be predictive.
Hence the If there were a GE today bit.
That's not to dispute their findings.
If you're not proud of your British citizenship and this country, then you have my contempt.
If you do, then I am very interested in views no matter what your political angle.
Until Boris is gone and his replacement is in place, its all very theoretical.
I am proud of Britain, especially all of the advancements we've made in the world like the web, healthcare.
We are at our best when we are outward looking, tolerant and welcoming. We have always done our best as that kind of country. I do not think we are there.
But as Blair said, "we will get back to that". Soon. It's coming.
In other words there is movement, when does that movement hold or reverse.
The supplementaires, forced choice etc suggest we should see a much tighter picture 'at some point' as it stands
It's part of your identity. It's part of your purpose. Even the colour of the party logo and it's history excite you, and you really connect with it. They're the good guys, the rest the enemy.
But, just be prepared for the day when it all gets much more complicated - when you realise your side isn't all perfect -and they really let you down.
Then, it gets much more complicated - and those are very confusing years.
Three weeks of solid wall-to-wall publicity for the Conservative Party (and remember the old adage, all publicity is good publicity) and their rating edges up 2-3 points. Yes, part of it will be those who have returned to the fold with the expectation of Johnson's departure in five or six weeks.
After my comments earlier, I find all polling extremely suspicious and dubious but if we didn't have the odd poll to discuss, we'd end up talking about Brexit all day every day.
Tonight's numbers not so strong for Truss as this morning's ComRes in the Express yet the lack of enthusiasm for any potential PM continues.
Labour has suffered the almost complete media blackout the Conservative in-sack ferret fighting has provided yet Conference season is approaching and we now need to start seeing some meat on the bones of the Labour programme for the next GE.
I suspect the speech made by Rachel Reeves will be the most significant of the Conference season.
I've voted Tory and Lib Dem you silly sausage.
You can regard the premise that the Tory membership are only interested in being tougher and tougher on potential migrants/asylum seekers as entirely incorrect, but the quote isn't saying the scheme is like being shot.
So its not the least bit racist about the scheme, it's comic exaggeration of the Tory membership (comedic value may be in the eye of the beholder) priorities.
has anybody else here seen Private Eye's cover with Johnson's legacy? It combines a loo & poo.
And what would one do for Trump's ? I think his ego tells him his image should be graven on Mount Rushmore. If so, macabrely I suppose it should include dead people a sort of Satan of the north.
Being serious, I think only fools pay much attention to midterm polls. A Tory poll lead once the new leader in place will probably be seen (because all new leaders normally get a bounce), but I wouldn't read anything into it.
I am going to stuff a small polyester White Ensign up my arse, and stand to attention while farting it out in time to Land of Hope and Glory on my favourite Joe Loss Orchestra Patriotic Hits long playing record. This post deserves no less.
Major Tory donor threatened to 'expose' Treasurer after row at 'unity dinner'
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1550926220392480768
That's an odd name for a penis, is that what you get in these Tory circles?
I love Britain for good things it is and does. It is also where I feel comfortable because I speak the language and know the culture, history, laws and customs.
At the same time I am not proud of all it stands for or has done. Nor would I say Britain is any better as a country than a dozen other similar democratic, liberal western countries. Better for me but not better per se.
If that earns me your contempt, so be it. I can live with that.
The latest poll for TV Osterreich is as follows (changes from last Federal election):
SPD: 31% (+10)
Freedom Party (FPO): 23% (+7)
People's Party (OVP): 20% (-17)
NEOS: 11% (+3)
Greens: 9% (-5)
People, Freedom, Rights (MFG): 4% (new)
That means the governing OVP-Green coalition has fallen from 51% at the last election to 29% now.
Could an FPO-OVP coalition take over? I suspect the SPD-NEOS-Green option (analogous to Germany) is the other option.
- Plato
In a three page letter of complaint to Mr Karim, seen by the Sunday Mirror and copied in to Boris Johnson and party chairman Ben Elliot, Lord Ranger warned Mr Karim: “Remember it is illegal to buy honours for cash and if you receive any honour for paying money, I will be the first to expose you.”
Anyway, did Inverness to Kyle of Lochalsh on Thursday, and Inverness to Thurso and Wick on Friday. Which means that, to all intents and purposes, I've done the official National Rail network. Except no! Barking Riverside station opened last Monday during the heatwave, so I'll have to do that this coming Monday (it's closed this weekend, so soon after opening).
Kyle of Lochalsh:
We Went Alien Hunting With Conspiracy Theorists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=No5C6YRzZ74
We haven't had that in the previous two changes: May was unopposed at this stage and Johnson was so far ahead and Hunt too nice to throw the dirt.
If we were talking about exactly the same deal, costing exactly the same amount of money, but done not with Rwanda, but Barbados, then it wouldn't be a case of, "What next? Shooting them?" but "What next? Sending them to the Maldives?"
Anyway I'm not sure a bit of bloodletting is bad for the soul in a contest. It aids the new leader in saying that this is a fresh start.
All things being equal I support and love England/Britain. All things aren't always equal though.
It is odd how these lines (the far north line and the Kyle line) have not been exploited for tourism; they are great.
I think that I'm capable of feeling anger and shame at some specific actions taken by my country and in my name, while still feeling affection and affinity for my country's more positive unique characteristics.
A charity executive boarded a London-bound sleeper train from Glasgow only to wake at dawn to find it had not moved an inch https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/caledonian-sleeper-passenger-wakes-to-find-hes-gone-nowhere-as-heatwave-halts-train-89gmlzdzf