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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    Wilson was responsible for the 98 majority and landslide, Labour can learn a lot from how he did that and how he got a majority of 4 I agree.

    The speech didn't lead directly to the landslide of 98 but the majority he got from it, did.
  • Roger said:

    Is "All the racists voted Leave" a chapter in Jews Don't Count?

    What does that mean? A looks like a complete non sequiteur
    Sequitur

    It means that lots of antisemites voted Remain
    Any numbers on that?
    Presumably using PB Tory logic(sic), the existence of Corbyn, their favourite Lexiteer and excuse for voting for BJ, suggests lots of antisemites also voted Leave.
    I don't have any numbers, but I'd only need one antisemite remainer to show that "all racists were leavers" was claptrap

    You know who was also a Zionist a Remain voter?

    https://www.defenddemocracy.press/ken-livingstone-brexit-make-leave-country/
    Ah, I see we’ve moved on from ‘lots of antisemites’ to ‘only need one antisemite’.
    My argument was always that not every racist voted leave

    That required just one antisemite remainer to demonstrate its truth

    I'd still contend that lots more did. And I don't feel any need to "prove" it for you - you know it's true

    I imagine lots of Scottish anti-English racists voted Remain as well

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Yet another example of Rishi's poor political judgment. Why set the bar this high. If you meet it, it's "well that was his minimum expectation". If you fall below it's "Rishi came up short. Campaign in trouble".
    Quote Tweet

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    · 2h
    Exclusive:

    Sunak allies want him to establish commanding lead in contest with 200+ Tory MPs to send a message to grassroots Tories

    They think they can pick up support from Javid backers, Hunt backers, Tugendhat backers and others as candidates gets whittled down to final two"

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1547127886322323456
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Am I the only one who fears for Beth Rigby at the moment? Not only did she ramble on at the Rishi launch but she forgot Penny Mordaunt was standing when asking Tom Tugenhadt a question this morning, and then curiously branded Mordaunt as “Theresa May with better hair.”

    Isn’t she supposed to have her finger on the pulse of Westminster politics? She gives off the impression of not having a clue what is going on.

    Has she ever given any other impression?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. 17, thanks.

    So, if the child care promise is revenue neutral what's getting the chop?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    CHART UPDATED Will the penny now drop?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022
    duplicate
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    38m
    Engaging, fresh, full of policy and with a strong sense of her own character. This
    @PennyMordaunt launch is the most impressive Tory leadership launch speech so far.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Sunak ain't 1.7m... Just saying...
    Online Sunak is consistently described as 170cm, but then a range of heights from 5'5" to 5'8", or 165cm to 173cm.
  • Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    EPG said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    The white heat of ancient cliches coined by Labour.
    It didn't mean anything in 1964, it doesn't mean anything
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Not directly comparable, as these data show different levels of rounding. The difference could be almost two inches either way, depending on how far and which way Mr S's height is rounded to 2 sfs.
    The reported data are 1.70 and 1.60.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited July 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Would that be the first time a large majority has been overturned with another majority?

    If so, surely some good odds on that outcome
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
    I have said since day one, he is emulating Cameron.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Are some Rishi Sunak supporters going to vote for Jeremy Hunt today in order to keep him in the race? He might come last otherwise.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    edited July 2022
    ..

    Roger said:

    Is "All the racists voted Leave" a chapter in Jews Don't Count?

    What does that mean? A looks like a complete non sequiteur
    Sequitur

    It means that lots of antisemites voted Remain
    Any numbers on that?
    Presumably using PB Tory logic(sic), the existence of Corbyn, their favourite Lexiteer and excuse for voting for BJ, suggests lots of antisemites also voted Leave.
    I don't have any numbers, but I'd only need one antisemite remainer to show that "all racists were leavers" was claptrap

    You know who was also a Zionist a Remain voter?

    https://www.defenddemocracy.press/ken-livingstone-brexit-make-leave-country/
    Ah, I see we’ve moved on from ‘lots of antisemites’ to ‘only need one antisemite’.
    My argument was always that not every racist voted leave

    That required just one antisemite remainer to demonstrate its truth

    I'd still contend that lots more did. And I don't feel any need to "prove" it for you - you know it's true

    I imagine lots of Scottish anti-English racists voted Remain as well

    I get it, you’re ‘I imagine’ assertions guy rather than numbers guy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Sunak ain't 1.7m... Just saying...
    https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/rishi-sunak-height/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Would that be the first time a large majority has been overturned with another majority?

    If so, surely some good odds on that outcome
    I can't see it happening. Labour winning with the support of the Lib Dems (Not the SNP) would feel like a big win for Starmer.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    Penny Mordaunt says her "monetary policy will be about controlling inflation" - that will be news to Andrew Bailey, who probably thought that [it is] was his job

    FTFY.
    I remember how good Andrew Bailey was supposed to be when he started.
    No one said that, in fact most people suggested it was a poor appointment based on his time at the FCA.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
  • https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1547154821618204672

    Hmm, not a bad speech from the Penny there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    I wish that one of these candidates or indeed the Labour Party would come out with a national programme of house building - houses not flats - and with outdoor space - and build them to minimum standards as to room sizes, quality of build - and make them available at fair rents.
    1. Allow local authorities to borrow - and issue bonds
    2. A compulsory number of apprenticeships per development
    3. Scale up solar/ energy conservation industry
    4. Make family life better/more tolerable
    5. Compulsory purchase of land banks if necessary
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Mr. 17, thanks.

    So, if the child care promise is revenue neutral what's getting the chop?

    At the moment it's tax free childcare.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Andy_JS said:
    In other news, Suella want's to outlaw male cowardice, Liz wants more rigidity in building structures, Kemi foresees oceans of blood, Penny wants more support for women with nieces or nephews, Rishi demands we all wave to the sun everytime we see it, Tom wants everyone to go back to doffing caps, and Nadhim.... Well, who knows, with him?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    O/T - This is pretty huge.

    On 12 July 2022, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) launched an investigation under section 25 of the Competition Act 1998 (‘CA98’) into suspected infringements of the Chapter I prohibition of the CA98 by companies involved in the production and broadcasting of sports content.

    The investigation relates to the purchase by these companies of freelance services which support the production and broadcasting of sports content in the UK.

    The CMA is investigating suspected breaches of competition law by at least the following: BT Group PLC, IMG Media Limited (including Premier League Productions), ITV PLC, and Sky UK Limited.

    At this stage the CMA believes it has reasonable grounds to suspect one or more breaches of competition law. The CMA has not reached a view as to whether there is sufficient evidence of an infringement of competition law for it to issue a statement of objections to any party or parties. Not all cases result in the CMA issuing a statement of objections and no assumption should be made at this stage that the CA98 has been infringed.


    https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/suspected-anti-competitive-behaviour-relating-to-the-purchase-of-freelance-services-in-the-production-and-broadcasting-of-sports-content

    If this goes anywhere a number of lawyers will be rubbing their hands together. They can spin this out for years, with a day or two out at the SC at least; beginning IIRC with a tribunal.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
    The Winds of Change speech was more important and transformative.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
    You are forgetting Heath. The last time a working majority for one side was turned into a working majority for the other was 1970.
  • Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
    And destroy the economy and society.

    I'll stick with Labour for the moment - but maybe you can tempt me back if you put somebody in vaguely sensible.

    If you delivered some genuine levelling up around FTTP and 5G, for example allowing masts to be built and telling objectors of these things to sod off, I'd consider it, some day. Right now I think you need some time out of Government to think about what you really stand for.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    I wish that one of these candidates or indeed the Labour Party would come out with a national programme of house building - houses not flats - and with outdoor space - and build them to minimum standards as to room sizes, quality of build - and make them available at fair rents.
    1. Allow local authorities to borrow - and issue bonds
    2. A compulsory number of apprenticeships per development
    3. Scale up solar/ energy conservation industry
    4. Make family life better/more tolerable
    5. Compulsory purchase of land banks if necessary

    I'd vote for that!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
  • Carnyx said:

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
    Are they martian down the usual route?

  • Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    Although I think if Brown had not been a muppet and held his election in 2007, the experience angle would have worked well against Cameron.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Sunak ain't 1.7m... Just saying...
    Online Sunak is consistently described as 170cm, but then a range of heights from 5'5" to 5'8", or 165cm to 173cm.
    We know men 40+ lose about 1cm of height per decade and we know top level politics ages people more quickly than normal. Do they shrink faster than normal too I wonder?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Kemi and Penny are moving on, Tom is leaping off on a tangent, Hunt a step back to 2015, the rest are continuity bullshit
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Aaron Bell / Tissue Price seems a decent chap, but the endless hero worship of him on here by people who barely know him / have never met him is ... a bit weird.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
    I’ve asked this before to no clear answer, what is the current Tory party position on the Iraq war in which they were so enthusiastically complicit at the time?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
    The Winds of Change speech was more important and transformative.
    Policy wise yes.
    Oh for a Harold now.
    He also spectacularly avoided killing shed loads in Vietnam.
  • Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Sunak ain't 1.7m... Just saying...
    https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/rishi-sunak-height/
    The first line says: "Rishi Sunak is 170cm, or 5ft 6 inches, tall."

    This rather undermines its reliability, since 170cm is 5'7" (less a sixteenth of an inch).
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
    The Winds of Change speech was more important and transformative.
    Policy wise yes.
    Oh for a Harold now.
    He also spectacularly avoided killing shed loads in Vietnam.
    Also one of the few leaders to actually sound like a normal person.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Carnyx said:

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
    Presumably orange aliens would have been fine.
    This picture looks like a weird visual mash-up of a Leon post with an HYUFD post, and merely confirms my suspicion that I am living in a simulation and the simulator isn't even trying to make it coherent anymore.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hawley is an absolute !@£$ but then he's aiming at an open goal...

    Hawley: Why are you using the term "person with a capacity for pregnancy" instead of "woman?"

    Bridges: "Your line of questioning is transphobic and opens trans people to violence."

    Hawley: "You're saying I'm opening up people to violence by saying women can have pregnancies?"


    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1546891926997188608

    Thank goodness "TERF Island" isn't that far down the rabbit hole.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    algarkirk said:

    O/T - This is pretty huge.

    On 12 July 2022, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) launched an investigation under section 25 of the Competition Act 1998 (‘CA98’) into suspected infringements of the Chapter I prohibition of the CA98 by companies involved in the production and broadcasting of sports content.

    The investigation relates to the purchase by these companies of freelance services which support the production and broadcasting of sports content in the UK.

    The CMA is investigating suspected breaches of competition law by at least the following: BT Group PLC, IMG Media Limited (including Premier League Productions), ITV PLC, and Sky UK Limited.

    At this stage the CMA believes it has reasonable grounds to suspect one or more breaches of competition law. The CMA has not reached a view as to whether there is sufficient evidence of an infringement of competition law for it to issue a statement of objections to any party or parties. Not all cases result in the CMA issuing a statement of objections and no assumption should be made at this stage that the CA98 has been infringed.


    https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/suspected-anti-competitive-behaviour-relating-to-the-purchase-of-freelance-services-in-the-production-and-broadcasting-of-sports-content

    If this goes anywhere a number of lawyers will be rubbing their hands together. They can spin this out for years, with a day or two out at the SC at least; beginning IIRC with a tribunal.

    I noticed US government have launched anti-trust investigation into PGA Tour (over their reaction to LIV golf). Lawyers rubbing their hands over that one. Last time PGA Tour was investigated for a similar potential violation, it took 4 years to resolve.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Badenoch now has same number of declared supporters as Tugendhat - 20 apiece.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "The Tory who is Labour's real worst nightmare
    Kemi Badenoch is a robust conviction conservative. The fact that her election would enrage the Left is a bonus
    Madeline Grant" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/13/tory-who-labours-real-worst-nightmare/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Carnyx said:

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
    A very probing question.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Carnyx said:

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
    For the first time I think I actually understand at least the origins of the NI protocol.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
    The Winds of Change speech was more important and transformative.
    Policy wise yes.
    Oh for a Harold now.
    He also spectacularly avoided killing shed loads in Vietnam.
    Also one of the few leaders to actually sound like a normal person.
    Despite being about as far removed from "ordinary" as it is possible to be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 2022


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    Although I think if Brown had not been a muppet and held his election in 2007, the experience angle would have worked well against Cameron.
    That’s an interesting point. Cameron would have been only 40 in 2007, perhaps a little too young.

    If Sunak or Badenoch (both 42) win, they’ll be the youngest PM since the Earl of Liverpool in 1812. (And the first PM born in the 1980s, and the first PM younger than me!)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    They will use Brexit as a convenient BC/AD break though. And in a sense this is both a very different country and a very different government to that pre 2019 or pre 2016. Tories 22 arent even in the same ballpark as the Cameroons.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This a composite photo. I think Jeremy Hunt is a lot taller than any of the others.
    Truss 1.6m
    Sunak: 1.7m
    Hunt: 1.88m

    Or 7 inches in old money....
    Sunak ain't 1.7m... Just saying...
    https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/rishi-sunak-height/
    The first line says: "Rishi Sunak is 170cm, or 5ft 6 inches, tall."

    This rather undermines its reliability, since 170cm is 5'7" (less a sixteenth of an inch).
    So what? There is no official record of my height anywhere which isn't self-reported. The NHS occasionally measure me, but without asking me to take my shoes off which sort of nullifies the point
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Aaron Bell / Tissue Price seems a decent chap, but the endless hero worship of him on here by people who barely know him / have never met him is ... a bit weird.
    Was a mere irregular lurker when he was posting so know very little about him but do admire him for his speech against Boris, took a lot of guts both for sharing personal stuff so publicly and being one of the first to attack his party leader with such force.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Sandpit said:


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    Although I think if Brown had not been a muppet and held his election in 2007, the experience angle would have worked well against Cameron.
    That’s an interesting point. Cameron would have been only 40 in 2007, perhaps a little too young.

    If Sunak or Badenoch (both 42) win, they’ll be the youngest PM since the Earl of Liverpool in 1812. (And the first PM born in the 1980s, and the first PM older than me!)
    YOunger surely?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
    I’ve asked this before to no clear answer, what is the current Tory party position on the Iraq war in which they were so enthusiastically complicit at the time?
    Similar to mine, removing Saddam Hussein wasn't an ignoble ambition.

    The irony is the French and German intelligence communities believed Iraq had usable WMD (and so did Saddam Hussein) but as Chilcot showed Blair over egged the evidence

    Halabja shows he is willing to use it, it is why I hold Ed Miliband in such contempt, his messing around over the use of WMD in Syria had so many disastrous consequences.
  • Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    They will use Brexit as a convenient BC/AD break though. And in a sense this is both a very different country and a very different government to that pre 2019 or pre 2016. Tories 22 arent even in the same ballpark as the Cameroons.
    So she's going to be a change to Cameron, May, Johnson all at the same time? If she pulls this off, well fair play she's a genius
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022
    Botswana's 2012 Olympic 800m silver medallist Nijel Amos has been suspended by the Athletics Integrity Unit after testing positive for a banned substance...

    Amos has spent his last six seasons training with Mark Rowland and the Nike Oregon Track Club.

    https://runningmagazine.ca/the-scene/olympic-medallist-nijel-amos-suspended-for-doping/

    There is clearly something in the water in Oregon.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    Perhaps the ideal candidate for PM is Postman Pat?
  • Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    Perhaps the ideal candidate for PM is Postman Pat?
    He's always out and runs away with your parcels and dreams?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
    I have said since day one, he is emulating Cameron.
    But without the wit or an Osborne (or Mandelson) to hold things together.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Aaron Bell / Tissue Price seems a decent chap, but the endless hero worship of him on here by people who barely know him / have never met him is ... a bit weird.
    It's not hero worship. Tissue Price did really good betting posts. For years. What have the rest of the Tories ever done for us?
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
    I have said since day one, he is emulating Cameron.
    But without the wit or an Osborne (or Mandelson) to hold things together.
    Mandelson is very much there, just not publicly.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    It's not a huge mystery. Labour folks at that level usually start with fewer advantages than Conservatives, not always, but usually, both in life and as members of the natural opposition party. This is a party about which people will make an issue of things like its leader looking Jewish while eating a bacon sandwich. Things are changing but someone like Rayner would have had little prospect even 15 years ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    Although I think if Brown had not been a muppet and held his election in 2007, the experience angle would have worked well against Cameron.
    That’s an interesting point. Cameron would have been only 40 in 2007, perhaps a little too young.

    If Sunak or Badenoch (both 42) win, they’ll be the youngest PM since the Earl of Liverpool in 1812. (And the first PM born in the 1980s, and the first PM older than me!)
    YOunger surely?
    Bugger. I knew someone would have spotted that before I edited it!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
    And destroy the economy and society.

    I'll stick with Labour for the moment - but maybe you can tempt me back if you put somebody in vaguely sensible.

    If you delivered some genuine levelling up around FTTP and 5G, for example allowing masts to be built and telling objectors of these things to sod off, I'd consider it, some day. Right now I think you need some time out of Government to think about what you really stand for.
    Yes, because the economy and society was looking pretty tickety boo in 2010 after 13 years of Labour rule, wasn't it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Would that be the first time a large majority has been overturned with another majority?

    If so, surely some good odds on that outcome
    1970
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    edited July 2022
    One final anecdote on the above comment, recall Macdonald's first ministry meeting the King in full court dress to assure people Labour wasn't a threat.
  • Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Botswana's 2012 Olympic 800m silver medallist Nijel Amos has been suspended by the Athletics Integrity Unit after testing positive for a banned substance...

    Amos has spent his last six seasons training with Mark Rowland and the Nike Oregon Track Club.

    https://runningmagazine.ca/the-scene/olympic-medallist-nijel-amos-suspended-for-doping/

    There is clearly something in the water in Oregon.

    Questions for Kahin...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Would that be the first time a large majority has been overturned with another majority?

    If so, surely some good odds on that outcome
    1970
    Okay, so still a long time ago. I wonder if I can bet on it.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Aaron Bell / Tissue Price seems a decent chap, but the endless hero worship of him on here by people who barely know him / have never met him is ... a bit weird.
    It's not hero worship. Tissue Price did really good betting posts. For years. What have the rest of the Tories ever done for us?
    Speak for yourself. He won the Krypton Factor. How do you pick your heroes?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Looks like Ishmael's cat is walking over his keyboard again.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    The Torygraph seems undecided about who is Labour's worst nightmare
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    Carnyx said:

    Anyhoo, big LSD in NI water supply scandal about to break.



    https://twitter.com/clarey1888/status/1546973401838981120?s=21&t=GVS-ewGSyTA3prFSTyU2IA

    I really would like to know what that is. Not least what green aliens are doing, apparently getting very intimate with local gents.
    Presumably orange aliens would have been fine.
    This picture looks like a weird visual mash-up of a Leon post with an HYUFD post, and merely confirms my suspicion that I am living in a simulation and the simulator isn't even trying to make it coherent anymore.
    It bears a faint resemblance both in greenness and ridiculousness to this Church of England classic fail, which really belongs to Monty Python:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-39719298

    Could they by any chance be related?

  • Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    One of the only two election winners for Labour in my lifetime.

    Three surely.

    Corbyn won in 2017 and also won the argument in 2019.

    Off to the gulag.
    I was arguing with somebody the other day about this, another Labour member.

    In summary, I support war criminals.
    Most of Labour's post war election winning leaders have the blood of so many dark people on their hands.

    Blair with Iraq and Atlee with partition of India.

    Another reason I fear Labour, they kill darkies on an industrial level, whereas the Tories are likely to make them PM.
    And destroy the economy and society.

    I'll stick with Labour for the moment - but maybe you can tempt me back if you put somebody in vaguely sensible.

    If you delivered some genuine levelling up around FTTP and 5G, for example allowing masts to be built and telling objectors of these things to sod off, I'd consider it, some day. Right now I think you need some time out of Government to think about what you really stand for.
    Yes, because the economy and society was looking pretty tickety boo in 2010 after 13 years of Labour rule, wasn't it?
    It's not looking very good after 12 years of Tory rule, so I wonder why we do not think the odds are likely to be in the favour of the Tories being removed
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Noone thanked the Tories for running the economy well between 1992 and 1997.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    They will use Brexit as a convenient BC/AD break though. And in a sense this is both a very different country and a very different government to that pre 2019 or pre 2016. Tories 22 arent even in the same ballpark as the Cameroons.
    So she's going to be a change to Cameron, May, Johnson all at the same time? If she pulls this off, well fair play she's a genius
    Thats not what im saying (but yes, every politician and therefore PM is different). The current government arent still trying to deliver the coalitions policies (hence 'had 12 years' is irrelevant). Austerity is gone, we are no longer in the EU, there is no drive for AV or referenda on Europe etc etc.
    We are about to enter the '7th iteration' of Tory administration type and style - Cameron coalition, Cameron majority, May majority, May minorty/DUP, Boris Minority/DUP, Boris landslide, ???
    All have different styles, aims and approaches.
    Tldr - its not a 12 year continuity
  • Pulpstar said:

    Noone thanked the Tories for running the economy well between 1992 and 1997.

    So well the NHS was on its knees, school roofs were falling in and pensioners were scared to leave their homes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In other news, Suella want's to outlaw male cowardice, Liz wants more rigidity in building structures, Kemi foresees oceans of blood, Penny wants more support for women with nieces or nephews, Rishi demands we all wave to the sun everytime we see it, Tom wants everyone to go back to doffing caps, and Nadhim.... Well, who knows, with him?
    I think that we can be fairly sure that it will be something to do with money. For him or his family.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    A majority of 98 is
    But the first election after that speech saw Labour with a majority of four.

    I suspect John Profumo played more of a role than that speech.
    It defined both Wilson and Home, and Labour and Tory, in a single phrase, as the optimistic Sixties was about to kick off.
    As a soundbite it was one of the greats.
    Which is why we all still know it.
    The Winds of Change speech was more important and transformative.
    Policy wise yes.
    Oh for a Harold now.
    He also spectacularly avoided killing shed loads in Vietnam.
    Also thanks to Anthony Eden for keeping the Americans out of Suez.
  • Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    They will use Brexit as a convenient BC/AD break though. And in a sense this is both a very different country and a very different government to that pre 2019 or pre 2016. Tories 22 arent even in the same ballpark as the Cameroons.
    So she's going to be a change to Cameron, May, Johnson all at the same time? If she pulls this off, well fair play she's a genius
    Thats not what im saying (but yes, every politician and therefore PM is different). The current givernment arent still trying to deliver the coalitions policies (hence 'had 12 years' is irrelevant). Austerity is gone, we are no longer in the EU, there is no drive for AV ir referenda on Europe etc etc.
    We are about to dnter the '7th iteration' of Tiry adminustration type and style - Cameron coalition, Cameron majority, May majority, May minorty/DUP, Boris Minority/DUP, Boris landslide, ???
    All have different styles, aims and approaches.
    Tldr - its not a 12 year continuity
    It was genuinely a sincere point, not meant to sound sarcastic. If she wins another majority and is another "change" candidate she's genuinely a genius. That takes real skill.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Botswana's 2012 Olympic 800m silver medallist Nijel Amos has been suspended by the Athletics Integrity Unit after testing positive for a banned substance...

    Amos has spent his last six seasons training with Mark Rowland and the Nike Oregon Track Club.

    https://runningmagazine.ca/the-scene/olympic-medallist-nijel-amos-suspended-for-doping/

    There is clearly something in the water in Oregon.

    Questions for Kahin...
    Sounds a lovely drug they have been popped for, great at getting rid of that spare tyre, but causes cancer.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    EPG said:


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    It's not a huge mystery. Labour folks at that level usually start with fewer advantages than Conservatives, not always, but usually, both in life and as members of the natural opposition party. This is a party about which people will make an issue of things like its leader looking Jewish while eating a bacon sandwich. Things are changing but someone like Rayner would have had little prospect even 15 years ago.
    Looking what now? He looked like a certified maniac eating the sandwich, not Paul Simon. This is the first time I've ever heard anyone say he 'looked Jewish' eating it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    I sense there may be a possibility that Penny did not in fact watch Macca at Glasto.
  • EPG said:


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    It's not a huge mystery. Labour folks at that level usually start with fewer advantages than Conservatives, not always, but usually, both in life and as members of the natural opposition party. This is a party about which people will make an issue of things like its leader looking Jewish while eating a bacon sandwich. Things are changing but someone like Rayner would have had little prospect even 15 years ago.
    Looking what now? He looked like a certified maniac eating the sandwich, not Paul Simon. This is the first time I've ever heard anyone say he 'looked Jewish' eating it.
    Who. Cares.

    Ed lost because he was hopeless. Ideas good, presentation and leadership poor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    It was quite hard to tell. Sometimes the older stuff is best left as a happy memory.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    The Torygraph seems undecided about who is Labour's worst nightmare

    Both of them would give Labour a challenge. But Kemi has the potential to completely knock them over. The idiot Femi Sorry on Twitter earlier shows you how many knots her ascendency would tie them in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Pulpstar said:

    Noone thanked the Tories for running the economy well between 1992 and 1997.

    So well the NHS was on its knees, school roofs were falling in and pensioners were scared to leave their homes.
    “Pensioners were scared to leave their homes”? It wasn’t the dark ages you know! We were even just gaining a fifth tv channel.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    EPG said:


    Assuming that one of Rishi, Liz or Penny wins, then the next Tory leader will be in their 40s. This is significantly younger than SKS and Sir Ed.

    I think having a leader that looks young is a real help if you are trying to project freshness and vitality and newness and change (even if these are largely illusory).

    One of the great mysteries of Labour leadership campaigns is not just why they always produce white men as leaders, but also (usually) old white men.

    The only Labour leaders to win GEs (HW and TB) were in the 40s.

    It's not a huge mystery. Labour folks at that level usually start with fewer advantages than Conservatives, not always, but usually, both in life and as members of the natural opposition party. This is a party about which people will make an issue of things like its leader looking Jewish while eating a bacon sandwich. Things are changing but someone like Rayner would have had little prospect even 15 years ago.
    I don't remember it having anything to do with him looking Jewish. He just clearly had never eaten a bacon sandwich before.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Penny says people are fed up with them not delivering.

    They've had 12 years.

    The public are going to give them another chance, really?

    They will use Brexit as a convenient BC/AD break though. And in a sense this is both a very different country and a very different government to that pre 2019 or pre 2016. Tories 22 arent even in the same ballpark as the Cameroons.
    So she's going to be a change to Cameron, May, Johnson all at the same time? If she pulls this off, well fair play she's a genius
    Thats not what im saying (but yes, every politician and therefore PM is different). The current givernment arent still trying to deliver the coalitions policies (hence 'had 12 years' is irrelevant). Austerity is gone, we are no longer in the EU, there is no drive for AV ir referenda on Europe etc etc.
    We are about to dnter the '7th iteration' of Tiry adminustration type and style - Cameron coalition, Cameron majority, May majority, May minorty/DUP, Boris Minority/DUP, Boris landslide, ???
    All have different styles, aims and approaches.
    Tldr - its not a 12 year continuity
    It was genuinely a sincere point, not meant to sound sarcastic. If she wins another majority and is another "change" candidate she's genuinely a genius. That takes real skill.
    Absolutely! Reinventing the wheel yet again. What % of the old can whomever wins paint as new and what distance between them and the undoubted clusterfuckery determines how far they might push tory chances up in the face of 'significant' headwinds
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    I just found another promised "benefit of Brexit" that was promised and hasn't happened. Apparently Ken Livingstone said he would leave the country if the 2016 went leave. Had I known this, I might have even been tempted to vote leave. Alas it turns out to have been another lie!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    My favourite line of Penny's this morning was 'we are going to modernise government with the white heat of modernisation' which got a round of applause.

    Some of us remember who came up with that notion in the first place ...
    And won a huge landslide.

    Labour can learn a thing from that.
    A majority of four isn't a landslide.
    Weirdly though a Labour majority of four would feel a bit like a landslide if it happened at the next GE. It'd mean they'd probably have won Basingstoke, Bromley and Bassetlaw.
    Yah, would put Starmer, in terms of net gains as LOTO, in the Atlee, Blair, and Cameron territory.
    You are forgetting Heath. The last time a working majority for one side was turned into a working majority for the other was 1970.
    I refer the honourable gentleman to this chart.


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My position on Penny Mordaunt is this.

    "Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones."

    It's not just what the lie is about. It's the fact that the default instinct is to lie. That tells you everything you need to know about a person.

    Under what she must have known would be intense scrutiny she has told untruths about Turkey and the Leave campaign and about her position on trans issues. It's not that she has changed her mind, which would be respectable, but that she pretends she has not said things or adopted positions which can easily be checked and which she must know can be checked. It shows a contempt for her audience, saying what she thinks they want to hear. It is very Boris-like.

    She needs to get rid of this, get more experience and think things through properly.

    On Badenoch: clearly has some talent as a speaker. But a bit too inclined to suggest things to make a point rather than to come up with practical solutions edge on loos and teaching. Again, needs experience of doing the hard work of coming up with practical solutions which work rather than which just sound good.

    Also - all this small state stuff is out of temper with the times. Three of the biggest issues we face - climate change, housing and investment in productivity so that we can earn our living - will need intelligent big/biggish state solutions. And what about defence in an uncertain world?


    Zahawi: WTAF is he doing suggesting offering Boris a job?

    Truss: has some good points but a voice and speaking style that sounds like it's been designed by and for a cheese grater. Not sure what she stands for.

    Tugendhat: don't know enough about him to comment.

    Hunt: seems a bit desperate. Fox-hunting? Really??

    Sunak: not as good as he thinks he is.

    Suella: oh please! A constituency MP, possibly a junior Minister responsible for licensing laws (her speciality at the Bar) is about her limit.

    8 offerings and so very little real choice.

    If this were a restaurant menu I'd go home and cook for myself.

    But if you had been living on a diet of Boris pie for nearly 3 years which keeps revealing the odd bit of horse or dog in the mix it does provide some variety and some hope for something better.
    Exactly so. It's the Trump and Hillary thing again, absolutely revolting vs revolting within acceptable parameters. The "lies" are both gotchas about which I refuse to get excited.

    Best result now is TT folds into Mordaunt, Tug4FCO and an nice SoSship for Aaron.
    Aaron Bell / Tissue Price seems a decent chap, but the endless hero worship of him on here by people who barely know him / have never met him is ... a bit weird.
    1. I have met him.

    2. Even in a double blinded trial I would have picked him for parliamentarian of the year 2021-2 for breaking cover 24 hours before the herd on Paterson, for Does the PM think I am a fool, and for half a dozen other interventions

    3. And let's hear it for tribalism anyway. it seems more rational to be rooting for a PB member of government than for some risible kickball team.

    4. Tell us again how Boris is nailed on till 2024.
This discussion has been closed.